Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley expresses an optimistic outlook on the Hong Kong residential market, predicting a 10% annual increase in property prices by 2026 and a 5% growth in rental prices, although stock prices are expected to experience increased volatility ahead of earnings season [1] Group 1: Market Predictions - Property prices in Hong Kong are expected to rebound by 5% this year after hitting a low last year, with a potential upward cycle lasting several years, according to JLL Hong Kong Chairman, C. H. Tsang [1] - The forecast includes a 10% annual increase in property prices by 2026 and a 5% increase in rental prices [1] Group 2: Stock Ratings - Morgan Stanley favors stocks of Sun Hung Kai Properties, Cheung Kong Holdings, and Henderson Land Development, assigning them an "Overweight" rating [1] - The firm holds a negative outlook on Wharf Holdings and New World Development, assigning them a "Underweight" rating [1]

Market Performance - The real estate sector (CITIC) had a weekly performance of 0.0%, while the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices decreased by -1.3% and -1.5% respectively, resulting in excess returns of 1.3% and 1.4%[5] - Among 29 CITIC industry sectors, real estate ranked 15th in performance[5] New Housing Market - In the week from January 31 to February 6, 2026, the new housing transaction area in 36 cities was 1.392 million square meters, down 2.9% week-on-week but up 175.7% year-on-year[10] - Cumulative transactions from February 1 to February 6 reached 1.204 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 257.9%[10] - Year-to-date transactions as of February 6 totaled 6.798 million square meters, down 16.2% year-on-year[10] Second-Hand Housing Market - For the same week, the transaction area for second-hand housing in 15 cities was 1.644 million square meters, down 3.6% week-on-week but up 245.8% year-on-year[16] - Cumulative transactions from February 1 to February 6 were 1.535 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 423.1%[16] - Year-to-date transactions as of February 6 totaled 8.383 million square meters, up 37.1% year-on-year[16] Inventory and Depletion Cycle - Cumulative new housing inventory in 13 cities was 77.165 million square meters, down 0.7% week-on-week and down 4.6% year-on-year[24] - The new housing depletion cycle for these cities is 22.9 months, with a week-on-week change of -0.1 months and a year-on-year change of +6.2 months[24] Land Market - The land transaction area from February 2 to February 8 was 1.1863 million square meters, down 44.9% week-on-week and down 36.0% year-on-year[43] - The average land price was 1,552 RMB per square meter, up 42.8% week-on-week and up 71.5% year-on-year[43] - Year-to-date land transactions as of February 8 totaled 10.556 million square meters, down 15.8% year-on-year[43] Investment Recommendations - Recommended mainland developers include A-shares: Binhai Group, China Merchants Shekou; Hong Kong stocks: China Overseas Development, Greentown China, China Resources Land, Jianfa International Group[9] - For light asset operation companies, recommended property management companies include Greentown Service and commercial management companies like China Resources Vientiane Life[9] Risk Factors - Risks include potential delays in the relaxation of real estate control policies, continued industry downturns, and ongoing credit risks leading to liquidity deterioration[5]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose by 467.21 points, an increase of 1.76%, closing at 27,027.16 points [1] - The H-share Index increased by 136.95 points, closing at 9,168.33 points, a rise of 1.52% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index gained 71.4 points, closing at 5,417.6 points, up by 1.34% [1] - The total turnover on the main board was 255.14 billion HKD [1] Blue Chip Stocks - Tencent Holdings increased by 2.28%, closing at 560 HKD [1] - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing rose by 2.7%, closing at 418.6 HKD [1] - HSBC Holdings saw a rise of 3.34%, closing at 139.3 HKD [1] - China Mobile decreased by 2.12%, closing at 78.5 HKD [1] Local Hong Kong Stocks - Cheung Kong Holdings rose by 1.7%, closing at 46.62 HKD [1] - Sun Hung Kai Properties increased by 3.46%, closing at 131.5 HKD [1] - Henderson Land Development rose by 2.5%, closing at 32.78 HKD [1] Chinese Financial Stocks - Bank of China increased by 0.86%, closing at 4.7 HKD [1] - China Construction Bank rose by 1.38%, closing at 8.08 HKD [1] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China increased by 0.46%, closing at 6.52 HKD [1] - Ping An Insurance saw a rise of 4.89%, closing at 73 HKD [1] - China Life Insurance increased by 3.98%, closing at 35.04 HKD [1] Oil and Petrochemical Stocks - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation decreased by 0.37%, closing at 5.33 HKD [1] - China National Petroleum Corporation fell by 1.29%, closing at 9.16 HKD [1] - CNOOC Limited saw a slight decrease of 0.08%, closing at 24 HKD [1]

市场消息显示，恒地尊悦花园预计于2026年第二季度入市。待到夏蝉鸣时，福罗拉山庄便要华丽转身告别烂尾别墅的旧岁 月。 30年烂尾 观点网 在西方神话或浪漫主义语境中，"福罗拉"代表着花神"Flora"，词意关联着青春、美丽、生机与鲜花。 虽是与春天高强度关联的词语，但在深圳龙华楼盘扩容史中，"福罗拉"这三个字从1993年开始便更多与"烂尾"二字绑定。 柳暗花明，"Flora"或许始终眷顾着同名的楼盘，福罗拉山庄静静地在龙华区某个角落看着这座城市将近三十年的变迁，最 终迎来了重生的机会。 经历两次规划调整，福罗拉山庄改头换面，以"恒地尊悦花园"的名字再次闯入深圳楼市。 深圳市龙华区民治街道民荣北路与民通路交果东侧，紧挨着碧水龙庭与万科悦城一期，与新万怡旧改相邻，角落里的项目 便是停工将近30年的福罗拉山庄。 据观点新媒体了解，福罗拉山庄的土地为龙华民治横岭社区所有，在故事序章，项目也来源于横岭社区的一场改造。 从种水稻、荔枝和龙眼为生的山脚小村，变为改革开放后的横岭工业区，横岭村由1989年新围仔、新屋、发牛坑三村合并 而来，又在1993年开启重建。 1993年是横岭村改造的开始，也是福罗拉山庄变成"烂尾标本" ...

Group 1 - The land parcel in Ngau Tau Kok has received at least 9 bids, indicating strong interest from various developers including Sun Hung Kai Properties, China Overseas Land & Investment, and K Wah International [1] - The area is well-equipped with amenities and has seen limited supply in recent years, suggesting a high demand for residential projects [1] - The land parcel is valued between HKD 11.4 billion to HKD 18 billion, with a price per square foot ranging from HKD 4,000 to HKD 5,930 [1] Group 2 - The Town Planning Board has revised the zoning of the land from "Government, Institution or Community" to "Residential (Group A) 4," allowing for residential development [2] - The proposed project includes a 30-story residential building with 420 units, accommodating approximately 1,092 residents, and is expected to be completed by 2031/2032 [2] - The site has a total area of approximately 33,713 square feet, with a maximum residential floor area of 252,851 square feet [1][2]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 | 截至月份: | 2026年1月31日 | 狀態: 新提交 | | --- | --- | --- | | 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 | | | | 公司名稱: | 恒基兆業地產有限公司 | | | 呈交日期: | 2026年2月5日 | | | I. 法定/註冊股本變動 不適用 | | | FF301 第 1 頁 共 10 頁 v 1.2.0 FF301 II. 已發行股份及/或庫存股份變動及足夠公眾持股量的確認 1. 股份分類 普通股 股份類別 不適用 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) 是 證券代號 (如上市) 00012 說明 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數目 庫存股份數目 已發行股份總數 上月底結存 4,841,387,003 0 4,841,387,003 增加 / 減少 (-) 0 0 本月底結存 4,841,387,003 0 4,841,387,003 足夠公眾持股量的確認(註4) | 根據《主板上市規則》第13.32D(1)條或第19A.28D(1)條 / 《GEM上市規則》第17.37D(1)條或第25.21D ...

Core Insights - The real estate sector has shown a decline of 2.1% over the past week, ranking 17th among 29 sectors in the market, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index and the Wind All A index experienced changes of 0.1% and -1.6% respectively [5][38]. - New home sales in 36 cities reached 1.425 million square meters last week, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 14.2% and a year-on-year increase of 146.5%. However, cumulative sales from January 1 to January 30 totaled 5.398 million square meters, down 30.3% year-on-year [5][10]. - The second-hand housing market saw a total transaction area of 1.706 million square meters across 15 cities last week, with a slight week-on-week decrease of 0.7% but a significant year-on-year increase of 744.4%. Cumulative sales for the same period reached 6.739 million square meters, up 15.8% year-on-year [5][16]. Real Estate Market Conditions - The inventory of new homes in 13 cities stands at 7.7738 million square meters, showing a slight decrease of 0.2% week-on-week and a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%. The average de-stocking period is 23.0 months, which is stable compared to the previous week but has increased by 6.7 months year-on-year [5][24]. - In terms of land transactions, the total area sold in 100 cities from January 26 to February 1 was 1.7955 million square meters, marking a week-on-week increase of 49.2% and a year-on-year increase of 419.7%. The average land price was 979 yuan per square meter, down 28.0% week-on-week and down 74.4% year-on-year [5][32]. Investment Recommendations - For mainland developers, the report recommends companies such as Binjiang Group and China Merchants Shekou in A-shares, and China Overseas Development and Greentown China in Hong Kong stocks, highlighting that sales growth expectations post-market recovery will drive valuation improvements [5][9]. - Light asset operation companies are also recommended, as they are expected to maintain stable fundamentals during the downturn. Suggested companies include Greentown Service for property management and China Resources Mixc Lifestyle for commercial management [5][9]. - For Hong Kong developers, the report suggests focusing on companies like Sun Hung Kai Properties and Henderson Land Development, which are expected to benefit from a recovering residential sales market [5][9]. Financing Conditions - In the realm of domestic credit bonds, real estate companies issued a total of 8 bonds last week, amounting to 4.96 billion yuan, which is a decrease of 42.9% week-on-week but an increase of 346.3% year-on-year. The net financing amount was -3.97 billion yuan due to repayments totaling 8.93 billion yuan [5][36].

Group 1 - The overall sentiment of surveyed residents in Hong Kong is more cautious than expected, despite stable financial conditions over the past 12 months [1] - The number of respondents with a positive outlook on Hong Kong's economic prospects for the next 12 months has decreased, which has suppressed consumer willingness [1] - Investment sentiment remains relatively stable, with key concerns among respondents including rising living costs and job security [1] Group 2 - UBS believes that the positive momentum in Hong Kong's financial sector should support overall economic and labor demand, with potential for improvement in resident confidence by 2026 [1] - The firm maintains a positive outlook on the real estate and financial sectors, removing Henderson Land Development (00012) from its preferred stock list and replacing it with Sino Land Company (00083) due to higher dividend visibility [1] - Other stocks included in the preferred list are AIA Group (01299), Swire Properties (01972), Galaxy Entertainment (00027), and Wynn Macau (01128) [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS's report indicates that Hong Kong residents exhibit a more cautious sentiment regarding investment and consumption intentions than expected, with a decrease in the number of respondents holding a positive outlook on the economic prospects for the next 12 months [1] Group 1: Economic Sentiment - Respondents' financial situations have remained stable over the past 12 months, but their positive outlook on Hong Kong's economic prospects has diminished, which has suppressed consumption intentions [1] - The most concerning issues for respondents include rising living costs and job security [1] Group 2: Investment Outlook - Investment intentions have remained relatively stable, supported by the positive momentum in Hong Kong's financial sector, which is expected to bolster overall economic and labor demand [1] - The robust performance of Hong Kong and A-shares is anticipated to create a positive wealth effect, suggesting that resident confidence may improve by 2026 [1] Group 3: Sector Recommendations - UBS maintains a positive outlook on the real estate and financial sectors, removing Henderson Land Development (00012) from its preferred stock list and replacing it with Sino Land Company (00083) due to higher dividend visibility [1] - Other stocks included in the preferred list are AIA Group (01299), Swire Properties (01972), Galaxy Entertainment (00027), and Wynn Macau (01128) [1]

Group 1 - Hong Kong local property stocks collectively rose today, with New World Development increasing by over 4%, and other companies like Sun Hung Kai Properties, Hang Lung Properties, Cheung Kong Property, and Sino Land rising by over 3% [1] - Notably, Sun Hung Kai Properties reached a historical high [1] Group 2 - New World Development's latest price is 9.830, with a market capitalization of 24.739 billion [2] - Sun Hung Kai Properties' latest price is 119.000, with a market capitalization of 344.836 billion [2] - Hang Lung Properties' latest price is 9.540, with a market capitalization of 48.24 billion [2] - Cheung Kong Property's latest price is 45.360, with a market capitalization of 158.75 billion [2] - Sino Land's latest price is 11.650, with a market capitalization of 110.494 billion [2] - Hysan Development's latest price is 21.660, with a market capitalization of 22.245 billion [2] - Kerry Properties' latest price is 23.620, with a market capitalization of 34.28 billion [2] - Kowloon Development's latest price is 26.800, with a market capitalization of 81.371 billion [2] - Swire Properties B's latest price is 12.640, with a market capitalization of 36.011 billion [2] - Link Real Estate Investment Trust's latest price is 35.840, with a market capitalization of 93.146 billion [2] - Kowloon Warehouse Group's latest price is 25.260, with a market capitalization of 77.195 billion [2] - Swire Properties' latest price is 23.200, with a market capitalization of 133.574 billion [2] - Champion REIT's latest price is 2.500, with a market capitalization of 15.338 billion [2] - Henderson Land's latest price is 30.300, with a market capitalization of 146.694 billion [2]