Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley anticipates the upcoming policy report on September 17 may include measures such as easing new capital investor entry plans, adjusting residential property stamp duties, and establishing home purchase funding plans, but expresses skepticism about the simultaneous implementation of all measures [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The real estate market in Hong Kong shows signs of stabilization, but if the policies announced are weaker than expected, there may be short-term profit-taking in real estate stocks following the policy report [1] - Historically, if the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts align with market expectations, Hong Kong real estate stocks tend to underperform the broader market [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Morgan Stanley maintains a positive outlook for the local real estate sector over the next year, suggesting investors take advantage of lower prices [1] - Among developers, the company is particularly optimistic about Henderson Land Development (00012) and Sino Land Company (00083) [1] - For rental stocks, it recommends Swire Properties (01792) and Link Real Estate Investment Trust (00823) for investors with lower risk tolerance, while also noting that Hang Lung Properties (00101) and Wharf Real Estate Investment Company (01997) have significant upside potential [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the upcoming policy report on September 17 may introduce measures to ease capital investor entry, stamp duty on residential properties, and establish a home purchase fund plan, but there are doubts about the extent of these measures [1] - Morgan Stanley expresses skepticism about whether all measures will be introduced at once, noting that the property market shows signs of stabilization, and if the policies are weaker than expected, there may be short-term profit-taking in real estate stocks after the report is released [1] - The day after the policy report, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, and historically, if a rate cut meets expectations, Hong Kong real estate stocks tend to underperform the market [1] Group 2 - Despite the short-term concerns, Morgan Stanley maintains a positive outlook on the local real estate sector for the next year, suggesting investors take advantage of lower prices [1] - Among developers, Morgan Stanley is more optimistic about Henderson Land Development (00012) and Sino Land Company (00083) [1] - For rental stocks, it recommends Swire Properties (01792) and Link Real Estate Investment Trust (00823) for investors with lower risk appetite, while also noting that Hang Lung Properties (00101) and Wharf Real Estate Investment Company (01997) have significant upside potential [1]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 | 截至月份: | 2025年8月31日 | 狀態: 新提交 | | --- | --- | --- | | 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 | | | | 公司名稱: | 恒基兆業地產有限公司 | | | 呈交日期: | 2025年9月4日 | | | I. 法定/註冊股本變動 不適用 | | | FF301 第 1 頁 共 10 頁 v 1.1.1 FF301 II. 已發行股份及/或庫存股份變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00012 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數目 | | 庫存股份數目 | | 已發行股份總數 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 4,841,387,003 | | 0 | | 4,841,387,003 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index fell by 153.12 points, a decrease of 0.6%, closing at 25,343.43 points [1] - The total turnover for the day on the main board was 267.647 billion HKD [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropped by 58.1 points, closing at 9,050.02 points, a decline of 0.64% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 44.72 points, closing at 5,683.74 points, a drop of 0.78% [1] Blue Chip Stocks - Tencent Holdings fell by 0.33%, closing at 598.5 HKD [1] - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing decreased by 1.35%, closing at 437.6 HKD [1] - China Mobile increased by 0.12%, closing at 85.7 HKD [1] - HSBC Holdings declined by 0.6%, closing at 99.15 HKD [1] Local Hong Kong Stocks - Cheung Kong Holdings dropped by 1.41%, closing at 36.42 HKD [1] - Sun Hung Kai Properties fell by 1.66%, closing at 92.1 HKD [1] - Henderson Land Development decreased by 1.35%, closing at 26.3 HKD [1] Chinese Financial Stocks - Bank of China fell by 0.92%, closing at 4.31 HKD [1] - China Construction Bank decreased by 0.91%, closing at 7.63 HKD [1] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China dropped by 1.2%, closing at 5.74 HKD [1] - Ping An Insurance increased by 0.09%, closing at 56.5 HKD [1] - China Life Insurance fell by 0.77%, closing at 23.16 HKD [1] Oil and Petrochemical Stocks - Sinopec fell by 0.92%, closing at 4.29 HKD [1] - PetroChina increased by 0.91%, closing at 7.74 HKD [1] - CNOOC dropped by 0.95%, closing at 19.87 HKD [1]

Group 1 - The Hainan Free Trade Port is set to officially start its full island closure operation on December 18, 2025, providing new investment opportunities for overseas Chinese [2] - The Hainan Free Trade Port offers attractive tax incentives, with corporate and personal income tax rates capped at 15%, encouraging investments in sectors like quantum information technology and healthcare [1][2] - The Boao Lecheng International Medical Tourism Pilot Zone has become China's only "medical special zone," achieving synchronization with international advanced levels in medical technology, equipment, and pharmaceuticals [2] Group 2 - Overseas Chinese business representatives are exploring investment opportunities in Hainan, with a focus on sectors such as healthcare and agriculture, leveraging the advantages of the Hainan Free Trade Port [2][3] - The Charoen Pokphand Group from Thailand has invested in the establishment of the Xinglong Coffee Cultural Park, aiming to utilize Hainan's policies to expand its market reach in Southeast Asia [3] - The Panama-based Chinese Chamber of Commerce is looking to gather funds from over ten countries to invest in Hainan, highlighting the potential for cross-border trade and processing of local products [3]

Group 1 - The "ALCF2025 Asia Livestock Cooperation Forum" was held in Bangkok, Thailand, with nearly 300 participants from the livestock industry, including representatives from China and ASEAN countries [1][2][4] - China has been Thailand's largest trading partner and agricultural product export market for 12 consecutive years, with significant cooperation in livestock trade, investment, training, and policy exchange [2][4] - The Chinese livestock industry has maintained the world's highest annual production for 15 years, positioning itself as a leader in global livestock development [4] Group 2 - The forum's theme is "Exploring New Situations, New Ecologies, and New Business Rules for Joint Win-Win Cooperation," emphasizing the need for knowledge and technology sharing among Asian countries to address challenges in food security and environmental protection [7][8] - A special activity at the forum included a visit to Charoen Pokphand Group's leadership academy to learn about advanced talent management practices in international development [7]

Core Viewpoint - 恒基地产的2025年中期业绩显示出显著的盈利下降，主要由于去年同期的特殊收益影响，同时公司通过发行可换股债券来筹集资金以支持其业务发展和再融资 [1][2][3] Financial Performance - 恒基地产2025年半年报实现营业收入87.11亿元，净利润27.29亿元，每股收益0.6元，毛利128.8亿元，市盈率20.7倍 [1] - 股东应占基础盈利为30.48亿港元，同比减少44%，去年同期为54.41亿港元 [2] - 每股基础盈利为0.63港元，较去年同期的1.12港元下降 [2] Bond Issuance - 恒基地产完成发行80亿港元的可换股债券，年利率为0.5%，到期日为2030年 [2][3] - 预计债券的净筹资额约为79.2亿港元，主要用于一般公司用途及再融资 [2][3] - 初始换股价为36港元，较发行时的收市价溢价27% [3]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong interbank offered rates (HIBOR) have generally decreased, with the overnight rate reported at 4.00012%, an increase of 1.786 basis points, marking the highest level since May 2 [1] - The one-week HIBOR decreased by 9.143 basis points to 3.61405%, while the two-week rate fell by 15.512 basis points to 3.49262% [1] - The one-month HIBOR, which is related to mortgage rates, ended a three-month increase, reporting at 3.29655%, down by 0.994 basis points [1] Group 2 - The three-month HIBOR, reflecting the cost of bank funding, reported at 3.29583%, a decrease of 1.137 basis points [1] - The six-month HIBOR increased slightly by 0.428 basis points to 3.26952%, while the one-year HIBOR decreased by 3.196 basis points to 3.27167% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has downgraded the earnings per share (EPS) forecast for Hang Lung Properties for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027 by 8% due to underperformance in mid-term results and updated expectations regarding property development project pre-sales, completion timelines, rental income, and occupancy rates [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecast - The EPS forecast for Hang Lung Properties for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027 has been reduced by 8% [1] - The current dividend forecast remains unchanged at HKD 1.8 per share for the same period [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The target price for Hang Lung Properties has been lowered from HKD 31 to HKD 30, reflecting a net asset value discount of approximately 50% [1] - The company is expected to benefit from a stabilization in Hong Kong property prices and improved market sentiment, particularly with anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 3: Rental Income and Sales - Stable rental income, dividends from Hong Kong and China Gas, accelerated land recovery, improved residential sales in the second half of the year, and support from major shareholders are expected to sustain dividend distributions [1] - It is projected that Hong Kong residential property prices will remain flat this year, while office and retail rental rates may decline by 5% year-on-year [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has downgraded the target price for Henderson Land Development (00012) from HKD 31 to HKD 30, citing a discount of approximately 50% to the net asset value per share, while anticipating a potential bottoming out of Hong Kong property prices [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley expects Hong Kong residential property prices to remain flat this year, while office and shopping mall rents may decline by 5% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share forecast for Henderson Land Development for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027 has been reduced by 8% to reflect underwhelming mid-term performance, the latest pre-sale status of property development projects, rental income expectations, and the progress of land reclamation [1] Group 3: Dividend Expectations - Despite the earnings downgrade, Morgan Stanley maintains the dividend forecast for fiscal years 2025 to 2027 at HKD 1.8 per share, expecting stable rental income, dividends from Hong Kong and China Gas (00003), accelerated land reclamation, improved residential sales in the second half, and support from major shareholders [1]