Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has downgraded the earnings per share (EPS) forecast for Hang Lung Properties for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027 by 8% due to underperformance in mid-term results and updated expectations regarding property development project pre-sales, completion timelines, rental income, and occupancy rates [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecast - The EPS forecast for Hang Lung Properties for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027 has been reduced by 8% [1] - The current dividend forecast remains unchanged at HKD 1.8 per share for the same period [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The target price for Hang Lung Properties has been lowered from HKD 31 to HKD 30, reflecting a net asset value discount of approximately 50% [1] - The company is expected to benefit from a stabilization in Hong Kong property prices and improved market sentiment, particularly with anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 3: Rental Income and Sales - Stable rental income, dividends from Hong Kong and China Gas, accelerated land recovery, improved residential sales in the second half of the year, and support from major shareholders are expected to sustain dividend distributions [1] - It is projected that Hong Kong residential property prices will remain flat this year, while office and retail rental rates may decline by 5% year-on-year [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has downgraded the target price for Henderson Land Development (00012) from HKD 31 to HKD 30, citing a discount of approximately 50% to the net asset value per share, while anticipating a potential bottoming out of Hong Kong property prices [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley expects Hong Kong residential property prices to remain flat this year, while office and shopping mall rents may decline by 5% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share forecast for Henderson Land Development for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027 has been reduced by 8% to reflect underwhelming mid-term performance, the latest pre-sale status of property development projects, rental income expectations, and the progress of land reclamation [1] Group 3: Dividend Expectations - Despite the earnings downgrade, Morgan Stanley maintains the dividend forecast for fiscal years 2025 to 2027 at HKD 1.8 per share, expecting stable rental income, dividends from Hong Kong and China Gas (00003), accelerated land reclamation, improved residential sales in the second half, and support from major shareholders [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International indicates that the performance of Henderson Land Development (00012) in the first half of this year met expectations, despite a significant decline in revenue and core net profit [1] Financial Performance - Revenue decreased by 18.8% year-on-year to HKD 9.55 billion [1] - Core net profit fell by 44.4% year-on-year to HKD 3.05 billion [1] - The decline in net profit is primarily attributed to a drop in gross margin and a one-time compensation of approximately HKD 1.06 billion received from the government for land recovery in the first half of 2024 [1] Dividend Policy - The company maintained an interim dividend of HKD 0.5 per share [1] Investment Outlook - CMB International believes that the short-term risks for the company's core business have decreased, but there remains uncertainty in the medium to long term [1] - The rating for Henderson Land is maintained at "Neutral," with a target price adjusted to HKD 25.9, reflecting a 55% discount to net asset value (previously 60%) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International indicates that Hang Lung Properties (00012) has met expectations for its performance in the first half of the year, despite a significant decline in revenue and core net profit [1] Financial Performance - Revenue decreased by 18.8% year-on-year to HKD 9.55 billion [1] - Core net profit fell by 44.4% year-on-year to HKD 3.05 billion [1] - The decline in net profit is primarily attributed to a drop in gross margin and a one-time compensation of approximately HKD 1.06 billion from the government for land recovery in the first half of 2024 [1] Dividend Information - The company maintained a dividend of HKD 0.5 per share for the half-year [1] Analyst Rating and Target Price - CMB International believes that short-term risks for the company's core business have decreased, but medium to long-term uncertainties remain [1] - The rating for Hang Lung Properties is maintained at "Neutral," with a target price adjusted to HKD 25.9, reflecting a 55% discount to net asset value (previously 60%) [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - Hong Kong is experiencing a resurgence as a global financial hub, attracting significant foreign capital inflows, particularly from international asset management firms and hedge funds [1][3][14] - The Hang Seng Index has increased by over 26% this year, ranking among the top globally, with 44 new companies listed in the first half of the year, raising a total of HKD 109.4 billion, which is more than eight times the amount raised in the same period of 2024 [1][2] Group 2: Office Leasing Trends - The demand for premium office space in Central Hong Kong is recovering, with the rental rates for super-prime office buildings nearing saturation, reaching historical highs [4][8] - Point72 Asset Management has leased approximately 55,000 square feet in The Henderson at a rental rate of about HKD 120 per square foot, while Jane Street has signed a lease for 220,000 square feet at a rate of HKD 137 per square foot, representing a 50% premium over current average rents [5][12] - The overall vacancy rate for super-prime office buildings has significantly decreased, with the International Finance Centre (IFC) achieving an occupancy rate of over 95% [13] Group 3: Investment and Recruitment Trends - Foreign investment institutions are increasingly focusing on Chinese assets, with a consensus emerging among foreign financial institutions to increase allocations to Hong Kong stocks [15][17] - Major foreign financial firms, including BlackRock and Morgan Stanley, are ramping up recruitment efforts in Hong Kong, indicating a strong demand for talent in the financial sector [18][19] - The influx of foreign talent is also evident, with many professionals seeking to establish long-term careers in Hong Kong, driven by the city's status as a gateway to the Chinese market [20]

Group 1 - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 decreased by 18.8% year-on-year to HKD 9.55 billion, primarily due to a decline in property sales and other income [1] - Core net profit fell by 44.4% year-on-year to HKD 3.05 billion, mainly attributed to a decrease in gross margin and a one-time compensation of approximately HKD 1.06 billion received in the first half of 2024 for government land recovery [1] - The company maintained a semi-annual dividend of HKD 0.5 per share, with the core payout ratio increasing by 34.7 percentage points year-on-year to 79.4% [1] Group 2 - Property development revenue decreased by 18.9% year-on-year to HKD 4.01 billion, impacted by one-time government land recovery income and a decline in profit margins for 2025 [1] - The pre-tax profit from property development dropped by 76.7% year-on-year to HKD 340 million [1] - As of the first half of 2025, the company had unsold contracts worth HKD 12.7 billion, with approximately 66% expected to be recognized in the second half, maintaining a gross margin of 15-20% [1] Group 3 - Total rental income slightly decreased by 2.8% year-on-year to HKD 3.36 billion, with a stable occupancy rate of 93% [2] - The occupancy rate of The Henderson, a Grade A office in Central, reached 80%, significantly higher than another major new project in the same area, which is below 20% [2] - The company anticipates a slight decline in renewal rents, but believes that future rental growth will primarily come from an increase in The Henderson's occupancy and the phased completion of a large new waterfront project in Central between 2026 and 2032 [2] Group 4 - The company maintains a neutral rating with a target price raised to HKD 25.90, reflecting a 55% discount to net asset value [2] - Short-term risks for the company's core business have decreased, but medium to long-term uncertainties remain, particularly regarding property development in Hong Kong and mainland China, as well as the long recovery period for the new waterfront project in Central [2]

星展发布研报称，由于缺乏大额资产处置收益，恒基地产(00012)中期基础盈利下跌44%，符合预期，每 股中期股息派0.5港元，保持稳定。该行指，集团拥有多种释放北方都会农地储备价值可行的方案，这 将会是关键关注点。该行指，有关北方都会开发项目的新闻将决定股价，目标价由28.75港元上调至 30.35港元，维持"买入"评级。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，星展发布研报称，由于缺乏大额资产处置收益，恒基地产(00012)中期基础盈利下跌 44%，符合预期，每股中期股息派0.5港元，保持稳定。该行指，集团拥有多种释放北方都会农地储备 价值可行的方案，这将会是关键关注点。该行指，有关北方都会开发项目的新闻将决定股价，目标价由 28.75港元上调至30.35港元，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the company with a target price raised to HKD 25.90, indicating a potential downside of 5.3% from the current price of HKD 27.34 [1][7][10]. Core Insights - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 met expectations, with a revenue decline of 18.8% year-on-year to HKD 9.55 billion, primarily due to a drop in property sales and other income [7][8]. - Core net profit decreased by 44.4% year-on-year to HKD 3.05 billion, attributed to a decline in gross margin and a one-time compensation from the government in the previous year [7][8]. - The company has a backlog of unsold properties worth HKD 12.7 billion, with approximately 66% expected to be recognized in the second half of the year, maintaining a gross margin of 15-20% [7][8]. - Rental income slightly decreased by 2.8% year-on-year to HKD 3.36 billion, with a stable occupancy rate of 93% [7][8]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: HKD 27.57 billion in 2023, HKD 25.26 billion in 2024, HKD 29.02 billion in 2025, HKD 30.50 billion in 2026, and HKD 32.41 billion in 2027, with a projected growth of 14.9% in 2025 [6][12]. - Core earnings per share are expected to be HKD 2.00 in 2023, HKD 2.02 in 2024, HKD 1.90 in 2025, HKD 2.05 in 2026, and HKD 2.29 in 2027 [6][12]. - The company maintains a dividend yield of 6.6% across the forecast period [6][12]. Market Position - The company is positioned within the Hong Kong real estate sector, facing challenges such as price uncertainty in property development and long recovery periods for investment properties [7][10]. - The report highlights that the rental growth potential is primarily driven by the leasing of The Henderson and the upcoming large-scale waterfront projects in Central, expected to be completed between 2026 and 2032 [7][10].

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has adjusted the basic earnings per share (EPS) forecast for Hang Lung Properties (00012) for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027, increasing by 5% for 2025, decreasing by 1% for 2026, and decreasing by 2% for 2027, resulting in EPS estimates of HKD 1.58, HKD 1.80, and HKD 1.80 respectively [1] - The dividend forecast remains unchanged at HKD 1.80, with an expected average payout ratio of approximately 105% over the next three years, compared to an average of about 78% over the past five years [1] - The target price has been slightly reduced by 1.5% to HKD 19.30, while maintaining a "Sell" rating [1] Group 2 - For the first half of the year, Hang Lung Properties reported an EPS of HKD 0.60, representing an 8% year-on-year decline and an 11% decrease compared to the second half of the previous year [1] - The pre-tax income from land recovery during the period was HKD 240 million, a significant drop from HKD 2.5 billion in the same period last year [1] - Excluding one-time gains and the impact of investment property revaluation, the recurring basic EPS was HKD 0.58, down 4% year-on-year and 11% lower than the firm's expectations, primarily due to lower-than-expected profit margins in property development [1] Group 3 - The interim dividend remains at HKD 0.50 per share, aligning with the firm's expectations [1] - As of June 30, 2025, the debt ratio is approximately 21%, unchanged from the end of the previous year; when including parent company loans, the debt ratio rises to about 43%, an increase of 2 percentage points from the second half of last year [1]