Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.8%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 4.4%, and the ChiNext Index went up by 3.9% this week [1] - The real estate sector (Shenwan) saw a rise of 5.1% [1] - The top five stocks by percentage increase were Chengjian Development (+34.5%), Yingxin Development (+22.0%), Shangshi Development (+20.8%), *ST Rongkong (+19.7%), and *ST Yangguang (+16.0%) [1] - The bottom five stocks by percentage decrease included Hainan Airport (-7.9%), Guangming Real Estate (-7.2%), Hezhan Energy (-5.5%), Shoukai Shares (-5.0%), and China Wuyi (-2.0%) [1] Real Estate Data Tracking - New homes: In the week of January 3-9, 42 key cities recorded a total transaction of 1.37 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 46.7% [1] - For January up to the week of January 9, new home transactions totaled 1.55 million square meters, down 30.1% month-on-month and 46.6% year-on-year [1] - Second-hand homes: In the week of January 3-9, 21 key cities saw a total transaction of 2.06 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 25.4% [1] - For January up to the week of January 9, second-hand home transactions totaled 2.14 million square meters, down 16.1% month-on-month and 23.9% year-on-year [1] Industry News - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, held a meeting to implement a package of fiscal and financial policies to boost domestic demand, including expanding the scope of public rental housing [2] - The central bank emphasized the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the integration of incremental and stock policy effects [2] - Local policies include Shanghai's efforts to improve fair competition review mechanisms and Henan's support for local governments to issue special bonds for purchasing existing homes for affordable housing [2] - In Shenyang, the down payment for housing has been reduced to 15% until the end of 2026, while Chengdu extended its housing mutual assistance policy until the end of 2026 [2] Company Announcements - In December 2025, the sales figures for major real estate companies were as follows: Poly Development at 12.16 billion yuan (-18.9%), China Merchants Shekou at 25.84 billion yuan (-14.5%), and New Town Holdings at 1.35 billion yuan (-57.8%) [2] - China Overseas Development issued bonds with a 3-year term at an interest rate of 1.60%-2.60% and a 5-year term at 1.80%-2.80% [2] Personnel Changes - Vanke A's Yu Liang retired due to age, resigning from his positions as director and executive vice president [3] Investment Analysis - The real estate sector remains a crucial asset allocation and investment direction for Chinese households, with stable housing prices being significant for economic circulation [3] - The 20th Central Committee's emphasis on promoting high-quality development in real estate suggests potential policy support [3] - High-quality residential properties may see a development wave due to policy guidance and changes in supply-demand structure [3] - The Hong Kong private residential market sentiment is gradually recovering, indicating a potential revaluation for Hong Kong developers [3] - The sector is rated "positive," with recommended companies including China Resources Land, China Merchants Shekou, New Town Holdings, and others [3]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index increased by 239.99 points, a rise of 0.9%, closing at 26,848.47 points [1] - The total turnover for the day on the main board was HKD 315.92 billion [1] - The National Enterprises Index rose by 65.33 points, closing at 9,285.41 points, with a gain of 0.71% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index saw a slight increase of 6.59 points, closing at 5,869.79 points, reflecting a gain of 0.11% [1] Blue-Chip Stocks - Tencent Holdings rose by 0.72%, closing at HKD 627.5 [1] - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing increased by 1.31%, closing at HKD 431.8 [1] - China Mobile decreased by 0.25%, closing at HKD 80.95 [1] - HSBC Holdings rose by 1.85%, closing at HKD 126.4 [1] Local Hong Kong Stocks - Cheung Kong Holdings fell by 0.19%, closing at HKD 42.56 [1] - Sun Hung Kai Properties increased by 1.22%, closing at HKD 107.9 [1] - Henderson Land Development rose by 2.99%, closing at HKD 31.72 [1] Chinese Financial Stocks - Bank of China increased by 0.9%, closing at HKD 4.48 [1] - China Construction Bank rose by 1.17%, closing at HKD 7.81 [1] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China increased by 0.96%, closing at HKD 6.3 [1] - Ping An Insurance rose by 2.19%, closing at HKD 70 [1] - China Life Insurance increased by 3.51%, closing at HKD 33 [1] Oil and Petrochemical Stocks - Sinopec increased by 0.65%, closing at HKD 4.65 [1] - PetroChina rose by 1.36%, closing at HKD 8.22 [1] - CNOOC increased by 2.58%, closing at HKD 21.48 [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][27]. Core Insights - The Hong Kong real estate market is expected to rebound in 2025, with both primary and secondary residential transactions reaching a four-year high, showing year-on-year growth of 21.5% and 16.9% respectively, leading to a total increase of 18.3% [3][7]. - The upward trend in property prices began in April 2025, with private residential prices increasing by 4.4% from the low in March 2025, and the leading index rising by 5.8% by January 2026 [3][8]. - Positive factors such as stable GDP growth, increased disposable income, and a recovering stock market are expected to enhance purchasing power and demand in 2026 [3][19]. - The concentration of market share among top developers is significant, with the top five developers holding a 46.8% market share in 2024, indicating strong performance potential during market upturns [3][21][24]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In 2025, the total residential transaction volume reached 63,000 units, marking an 18% increase compared to 2022, with primary sales at 20,500 units and secondary sales at 42,000 units [4][7]. - The influx of mainland buyers is notable, with an estimated 13,800 units purchased by Mandarin-speaking buyers, accounting for 22% of total transactions [7]. Price Trends - Since Q2 2025, property prices have shown a steady upward trend, with the index rising by 8% from the low in March 2025 [8][19]. Rental Market - The rental market has also seen an upward trend, with rental indices increasing by 4.3% by November 2025, and the average rental yield reaching 2.88%, closely aligning with the ten-year government bond yield of 2.94% [11][12]. Supply Dynamics - The supply of new residential units has been contracting, with the number of pre-sale approvals declining by 20% by the end of 2025, creating a favorable environment for price increases [16][19]. Future Outlook - The outlook for 2026 remains positive, with expectations of continued demand recovery and manageable supply pressures, suggesting a sustained upward trend in both volume and prices [19][25].

Group 1 - Citigroup revised its forecast for Hong Kong residential property prices in 2026 from an increase of 3% to 8%, anticipating a further acceleration in 2027, marking the beginning of a multi-year upward cycle [1] - The fundamental supporting factors include a new low in land supply, a decrease in available units, and a projected net absorption starting in 2026, with new sales expected to reach 21,000 units [1][2] - Rental prices are expected to rise cumulatively by 20% from 2023 to 2025, with an average rental yield of 3.5%, supporting future demand [1] Group 2 - The outlook for Hong Kong real estate stocks in 2026 is more positive, driven by an upward price cycle, improved profit margins, and a reduction in debt and financing costs for listed property companies [2] - The second quarter is traditionally a peak season for the property market, with expectations for increased asset turnover starting in March [2] - Recommended stocks include Sun Hung Kai Properties, Sino Land, and Henderson Land, benefiting from rising profit margins and NAV [3]

Core Viewpoint - The appointment of Hou Xiaohai as COO of Charoen Pokphand Group (CP Group) in China marks a strategic move to enhance the company's operations in various sectors, including feed, breeding, and food processing, leveraging his extensive experience from his previous role at China Resources Beer [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Charoen Pokphand Group, founded in 1921 by Thai-Chinese businessman Chey That, has a significant presence in the Chinese market, being the first foreign enterprise to enter mainland China after the reform and opening-up [2]. - The company operates across more than ten sectors, including agriculture, food, telecommunications, finance, real estate, pharmaceuticals, and machinery, with a projected global sales revenue of $102.2 billion in 2024 [2]. Group 2: Strategic Developments - Hou Xiaohai will oversee the integration of marketing for CP Group's consumer products, which include eggs, pork, chicken, and feed, indicating a focus on key business segments [2]. - Recent strategic partnerships include a collaboration with China Resources Wanjia to enhance the egg supply chain, and a significant investment of approximately 1.4 billion yuan in a full industry chain project for egg production in Minqing County [4]. - CP Group is expanding its pork and chicken production capabilities, with a new project in Sichuan aiming for an annual output of 180,000 tons of feed and a sales revenue of 3 billion yuan upon full operation [4]. Group 3: Market Positioning and Future Plans - The company is also exploring opportunities in the coffee market, with plans to integrate resources for coffee bean processing in Hainan and Yunnan, aiming to connect China with Southeast Asian trade [5]. - CP Group is set to establish 300 dedicated food stores by 2026, enhancing its "farm-to-table" supply chain strategy [6]. - The company faces challenges in adapting to the evolving consumer landscape, particularly among younger demographics, necessitating a more agile approach to market engagement [7]. Group 4: Leadership and Experience - Hou Xiaohai's extensive experience in brand integration and market operations at China Resources Beer is expected to be instrumental in replicating successful strategies within CP Group's diverse consumer product lines [9].

Core Viewpoint - China Export-Import Bank emphasizes the importance of financing cooperation with Thailand in the energy sector, particularly in supporting renewable energy projects to aid Thailand's green and sustainable development goals [1][5]. Group 1: Meetings with Thai Officials - During meetings with the Thai Ministry of Energy and the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand, the Chairman of China Export-Import Bank expressed a commitment to align with Thailand's financial needs for achieving carbon neutrality and energy transition [1][5]. - The bank aims to support project construction in the renewable energy sector, contributing to Thailand's sustainable development [1][5]. Group 2: Collaboration with Thai Corporations - In discussions with Charoen Pokphand Group, the bank highlighted its dedication to supporting multinational enterprises in stable operations and healthy development, offering diversified and customized financial services in agriculture, renewable energy, digital economy, and financial innovation [3][8]. - The bank also expressed a desire to enhance collaboration with Bangkok Bank in areas such as international settlement, capital financing, and trade finance to facilitate cross-border trade between China and Thailand [3][8]. Group 3: Engagement with Chinese Enterprises in Thailand - During a dialogue with representatives of Chinese enterprises in Thailand, the Chairman listened to their experiences regarding opportunities and challenges in expanding overseas business and their financial needs [5][10]. - The bank plans to leverage its expertise to improve cross-border financial services and provide stable, sustainable financial support for the overseas development of these enterprises [5][10].

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 | 截至月份: | 2025年12月31日 | 狀態: 新提交 | | --- | --- | --- | | 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 | | | | 公司名稱: | 恒基兆業地產有限公司 | | | 呈交日期: | 2026年1月6日 | | | I. 法定/註冊股本變動 不適用 | | | FF301 第 1 頁 共 10 頁 v 1.1.1 FF301 II. 已發行股份及/或庫存股份變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00012 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數目 | | 庫存股份數目 | | 已發行股份總數 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 4,841,387,003 | | 0 | | 4,841,387,003 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has upgraded its industry outlook for Hong Kong's real estate to "attractive," expecting positive year-on-year growth in three segments: residential property prices, Central office rents, and retail sales for the first time since 2018 [1][2]. Residential Sector - The firm is most optimistic about the residential market, predicting that property prices, which have fallen by 30% since 2018, will bottom out by 2025 and rise by 10% in 2026, with further increases expected in 2027 [1]. - The removal of stamp duties for foreign and mainland buyers in February 2024 is anticipated to boost property purchases from mainland clients [1]. - The influx of mainland immigrants, which has doubled to 140,000 annually post-pandemic compared to 70,000 from 2012 to 2019, is contributing to positive population growth [1]. - A strong stock market performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 28% in 2025, has also improved market sentiment [1]. Office Sector - Despite high vacancy rates, the market is expected to recover, with Central office rents projected to increase by 3% this year due to rising demand for quality office properties from asset management firms, hedge funds, and wealth management institutions [2]. - Recent large transactions, pre-leasing activities, and increased trading volumes in the IPO market are seen as positive indicators for the office sector [2]. Retail Sector - Retail sales in Hong Kong are expected to grow by 3% year-on-year this year, driven primarily by an increase in visitor numbers [2]. - However, there are concerns regarding the ongoing rise in online retail sales and competition from lower-priced products and services in Shenzhen, which pose challenges to the retail market [2]. - The expansion of duty-free sales in mainland China is also viewed as a potential pressure point for Hong Kong's retail sector [2].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has upgraded its industry outlook for Hong Kong's real estate sector to "attractive," expecting positive year-on-year growth in three segments: residential property prices, Central office rents, and retail sales for the first time since 2018 [1][2]. Residential Market - The residential property market is viewed as the most promising, with prices having dropped 30% since 2018 and expected to bottom out by 2025, followed by a projected 10% increase in 2026 and further growth in 2027 [1]. - The removal of stamp duties for foreign and mainland buyers in February 2024 is anticipated to boost property purchases from mainland clients [1]. - The influx of mainland immigrants, reaching 140,000 annually post-pandemic, has doubled compared to the 70,000 per year from 2012 to 2019, contributing to positive population growth [1]. - The strong performance of the stock market, with the Hang Seng Index rising 28% in 2025, has also improved market sentiment [1]. Office Market - Despite high vacancy rates, the office market is expected to recover, with Central office rents projected to increase by 3% this year due to rising demand for quality office properties from asset management firms, hedge funds, and wealth management institutions [2]. - Recent large transactions, pre-leasing activities, and increased trading volumes in the IPO market are seen as positive indicators for the office sector [2]. Retail Market - Retail sales in Hong Kong are expected to grow by 3% year-on-year, driven primarily by an increase in visitor numbers [2]. - However, there are concerns regarding the continuous rise in online retail sales and competition from lower-priced products and services in Shenzhen, as well as potential pressure from the expansion of duty-free sales in mainland China [2].

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley has raised the target prices for several real estate stocks, with New World Development (00016) and Henderson Land (00012) being top picks, increasing their target prices from HKD 105 to HKD 120 and from HKD 30 to HKD 36, respectively, both receiving an "Overweight" rating [1] - Cheung Kong Property (01113) is also among the preferred stocks, with its rating upgraded from "Market Perform" to "Overweight" and target price raised from HKD 39 to HKD 47 [1] - The firm anticipates a 10% increase in residential property prices this year, driven by increased demand from mainland buyers, inventory depletion, limited supply, and declining interest rates [1] Group 2 - Strong rental performance is expected due to talent inflow, leading to higher yields and positive spread returns, with a projected rental growth of 5% this year [1] - The wealth effect generated by the rise in the Hang Seng Index is also expected to support property prices [1]