Group 1: Market Overview - Since the low point in March 2025, Hong Kong residential prices have rebounded over 4% [1] - Positive signs for continued recovery in the residential market include resilient stock market performance, suppressed demand being released, and strong transaction volumes [1] - The bank anticipates a further rebound of approximately 5% in property prices by the end of 2026 [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - There is a decline in the number of listings in the secondary market, and more transactions are occurring above valuation prices, fueling a "fear of missing out" sentiment [1] - Interest from mainland buyers remains strong, with expected structural population growth [1] - The financial sector is recovering, contributing significantly to Hong Kong's GDP [1] Group 3: Risks and Preferences - The bank's constructive outlook is contingent on the continued resilience of the Hang Seng Index, as the real estate market is driven by sentiment [1] - Preferred developers include Sino Land (00083) with a low risk profile and a 6% dividend yield, followed by Henderson Land (00012) with a higher dividend yield of 6.6%, albeit with some risk of dividend cuts [2] - The bank would consider buying New World Development (00016) if its stock price falls to around HKD 85 [2]

Core Points - The Hang Seng Index fell by 87.56 points, a decrease of 0.33%, closing at 26,346.14 points [1] - The total turnover on the main board was HKD 242.7 billion [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropped by 91.43 points, closing at 9,375.79 points, a decline of 0.97% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 77.64 points, closing at 6,093.44 points, a drop of 1.26% [1] Blue Chip Stocks - Tencent Holdings fell by 1.68%, closing at HKD 645 [1] - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing decreased by 0.41%, closing at HKD 432.4 [1] - China Mobile rose by 0.41%, closing at HKD 85.55 [1] - HSBC Holdings increased by 4.41%, closing at HKD 106.5 [1] Local Hong Kong Stocks - Cheung Kong Holdings rose by 1.15%, closing at HKD 38.86 [1] - Sun Hung Kai Properties increased by 0.74%, closing at HKD 95.8 [1] - Henderson Land Development fell by 0.14%, closing at HKD 28.22 [1] Chinese Financial Stocks - Bank of China rose by 0.45%, closing at HKD 4.44 [1] - China Construction Bank increased by 0.25%, closing at HKD 7.9 [1] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China fell by 0.33%, closing at HKD 6.06 [1] - Ping An Insurance rose by 0.27%, closing at HKD 56.15 [1] - China Life Insurance decreased by 0.71%, closing at HKD 25.04 [1] Oil and Petrochemical Stocks - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation fell by 0.24%, closing at HKD 4.22 [1] - China National Petroleum Corporation rose by 0.13%, closing at HKD 8 [1] - CNOOC Limited decreased by 0.55%, closing at HKD 19.95 [1]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley raised its year-end targets for the MSCI Hong Kong Index (MXHK) to 13,000 and 14,000 points, with potential targets for 2026 of 14,366, 15,522, and 16,679 points, indicating potential increases of 8%, 16%, and 25% respectively [1] - The recovery trend in Hong Kong has been significant since 2023, with strong financial market performance and a stabilizing residential property market, making valuations attractive compared to historical levels and other markets [1] - Morgan Stanley maintains a positive outlook for Hong Kong for the next year, favoring stocks such as Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388), Futu Holdings (FUTU.US), Galaxy Entertainment (00027), MGM China (02282), Techtronic Industries (00669), China State Construction International (03311), Henderson Land Development (00012), and MTR Corporation (00066) [1] Group 2 - Year-to-date, the MSCI Hong Kong Index (MXHK) has returned 26% in USD terms, and its forecasted P/E ratio remains 0.3 standard deviations below the 10-year average, making Hong Kong the cheapest market in the Asia-Pacific region, excluding ASEAN [2]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that the MSCI Hong Kong Index (MXHK) has returned 26% in USD terms year-to-date, indicating that Hong Kong remains one of the cheapest markets in the Asia-Pacific region, excluding ASEAN, with a forecasted P/E ratio still 0.3 standard deviations below the 10-year average [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The MXHK index's year-to-date return of 26% highlights a significant recovery trend in Hong Kong since 2023 [1] - The financial market performance in Hong Kong has been strong, and the residential property market is stabilizing [1] Group 2: Valuation and Forecast - Morgan Stanley has raised its year-end targets for MXHK to 13,000 and 14,000 points, assuming the index maintains or increases its P/E ratio relative to the past 10 years [1] - Potential targets for the end of 2026 are set at 14,366, 15,522, and 16,679 points, representing potential increases of 8%, 16%, and 25% respectively [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The firm maintains a positive outlook for Hong Kong, expecting continued capital inflows, and has upgraded the telecommunications services sector to "overweight" [1] - Preferred stocks include Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388), Futu Holdings (FUTU.US), Galaxy Entertainment (00027), MGM China (02282), Techtronic Industries (00669), China State Construction International (03311), Henderson Land Development (00012), and MTR Corporation (00066) [1]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index fell by 245.78 points, a decrease of 0.94%, closing at 25,781.77 points [1] - The total turnover for the day was 227.536 billion HKD [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropped by 78.88 points, closing at 9,223.78 points, a decline of 0.85% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 84.85 points, closing at 5,923.09 points, a drop of 1.41% [1] Blue-Chip Stocks - Tencent Holdings decreased by 1.11%, closing at 623.5 HKD [1] - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing fell by 1.58%, closing at 422.4 HKD [1] - China Mobile declined by 0.88%, closing at 84.45 HKD [1] - HSBC Holdings increased by 0.1%, closing at 102.5 HKD [1] Local Hong Kong Stocks - Cheung Kong Holdings fell by 0.26%, closing at 37.86 HKD [1] - Sun Hung Kai Properties decreased by 1.44%, closing at 92.35 HKD [1] - Henderson Land Development dropped by 0.87%, closing at 27.3 HKD [1] Chinese Financial Stocks - Bank of China decreased by 0.23%, closing at 4.36 HKD [1] - China Construction Bank fell by 0.13%, closing at 7.81 HKD [1] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China increased by 0.17%, closing at 5.96 HKD [1] - Ping An Insurance dropped by 0.72%, closing at 55.5 HKD [1] - China Life Insurance decreased by 2.33%, closing at 24.36 HKD [1] Oil and Petrochemical Stocks - Sinopec increased by 0.24%, closing at 4.13 HKD [1] - PetroChina rose by 1.15%, closing at 7.89 HKD [1] - CNOOC increased by 0.93%, closing at 19.5 HKD [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF (520890) has experienced a significant decrease in both share count and total assets in 2024, indicating potential challenges in attracting investment [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Overview - The Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF (520890) was established on September 4, 2024, with an annual management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.10% [1]. - As of October 10, 2024, the fund had a total of 70.08 million shares and a total size of 98.15 million yuan, down from 123 million shares and 146 million yuan at the end of 2024, representing a 43.09% decrease in shares and a 32.92% decrease in size year-to-date [1]. Group 2: Liquidity and Trading Activity - Over the last 20 trading days, the ETF has accumulated a total trading amount of 688 million yuan, with an average daily trading amount of 34.41 million yuan [1]. - Year-to-date, the ETF has seen a total trading amount of 2.643 billion yuan over 186 trading days, averaging 14.21 million yuan per day [1]. Group 3: Fund Performance and Holdings - The current fund manager, Li Qian, has managed the ETF since its inception, achieving a return of 40.20% during her tenure [2]. - The ETF's top holdings include Shougang Resources (3.83%), Far East Horizon (3.69%), Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (3.27%), and others, with the total holdings reflecting a diversified portfolio [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate industry in Hong Kong [1]. Core Insights - The current adjustment in the Hong Kong real estate market, which began in Q3 2021, is nearing its end, with signs of price stabilization observed in Q2 2025. The cumulative decline in residential property prices from September 2021 to March 2025 is 28.4% [27][75]. - Key factors contributing to the potential recovery include improved GDP growth, increased disposable income, and a favorable rental yield environment, which enhances purchasing power and willingness among residents [28][30][75]. - The market is characterized by a concentration of market share among top developers, with the top five companies holding a 46.8% market share in sales [53]. Summary by Sections Historical Review - The previous cycle of the Hong Kong real estate market saw a significant decline in prices from 1997 to 2003, with a cumulative drop of 66% in residential property prices. The recovery was driven by improved economic conditions and a decrease in housing supply [9][22]. Current Outlook - The report indicates that the Hong Kong real estate market is approaching the end of its adjustment phase, supported by stabilizing GDP and disposable income growth, alongside a reduction in housing supply [27][28][75]. - The rental yield for private residential properties is becoming increasingly attractive, nearing mortgage rates, which is expected to boost buyer interest [14][35]. Market Structure - The concentration of market share among leading developers allows for significant flexibility in adjusting land acquisition and sales strategies, enhancing their performance during market upturns [53][70]. - The average rental income from properties held by major developers is projected to stabilize, providing a buffer against market fluctuations [64]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on major local developers such as Sun Hung Kai Properties, Henderson Land Development, and Sino Land, which are well-positioned to benefit from the anticipated market recovery [75].

Core Viewpoint - UBS upgraded the investment rating of Cheung Kong Property from "Neutral" to "Buy," identifying it as the most undervalued stock among the real estate companies covered by the bank [1] Group 1: Potential Catalysts for Value Release - Potential catalysts for value release include acquisitions of distressed commercial real estate (CRE) assets in Hong Kong, continuous improvement in hotel profitability, and opportunities to convert hotels into student accommodations due to a structural increase in non-local student enrollment [1] - Additional catalysts mentioned are the disposal of UK railway assets and higher foreign exchange conversion gains following potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2: Stance on Hong Kong Banks and Developers - UBS maintains a "Neutral" stance on Hong Kong banks due to increased provisioning expenses related to commercial real estate exposure and risks of net interest margin contraction from a potential rate cut cycle [1] - The bank holds a "Positive" stance on Hong Kong developers, with top picks including Henderson Land, Sun Hung Kai Properties, Link REIT, Wynn Macau, Galaxy Entertainment, and Cathay Pacific, all rated as "Buy" [1] - Conversely, UBS is bearish on MTR Corporation, rating it as "Sell" [1]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index fell by 128.31 points, a decrease of 0.48%, closing at 26,829.46 points [1] - The National Enterprises Index dropped by 49.51 points, closing at 9,523.87 points, a decline of 0.52% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 36.11 points, closing at 6,514.19 points, down by 0.55% [1] Blue Chip Stocks - Tencent Holdings decreased by 0.37%, closing at 675 HKD [1] - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing fell by 0.76%, closing at 445 HKD [1] - China Mobile dropped by 0.78%, closing at 83.2 HKD [1] - HSBC Holdings declined by 0.27%, closing at 110.6 HKD [1] Local Hong Kong Stocks - Cheung Kong Holdings increased by 1.39%, closing at 37.96 HKD [1] - Sun Hung Kai Properties rose by 1.23%, closing at 94.35 HKD [1] - Henderson Land Development fell by 0.22%, closing at 27.1 HKD [1] Chinese Financial Stocks - Bank of China decreased by 0.95%, closing at 4.16 HKD [1] - China Construction Bank fell by 0.14%, closing at 7.28 HKD [1] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China dropped by 1.06%, closing at 5.6 HKD [1] - Ping An Insurance decreased by 0.94%, closing at 52.75 HKD [1] - China Life Insurance fell by 0.37%, closing at 21.78 HKD [1] Oil and Petrochemical Stocks - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation remained unchanged, closing at 4.08 HKD [1] - China National Petroleum Corporation increased by 0.42%, closing at 7.15 HKD [1] - CNOOC Limited fell by 1.39%, closing at 18.5 HKD [1]

II. 已發行股份及/或庫存股份變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00012 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數目 | | 庫存股份數目 | | 已發行股份總數 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 4,841,387,003 | | 0 | | 4,841,387,003 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | 0 | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 4,841,387,003 | | 0 | | 4,841,387,003 | 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 | 截至月份: | 2025年9月30日 | 狀態: 新提交 | | --- | --- | --- | | 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 | | | | 公司名稱: | 恒基兆業地產有限公司 | | | 呈交日期: | 2025年10 ...