Group 1 - Hong Kong real estate stocks are generally declining, with notable drops in companies such as Hang Lung Properties (down 3.62% to HKD 9.05), Wharf Real Estate Investment (down 3.27% to HKD 24.28), Cheung Kong Property (down 3.88% to HKD 46.08), and Sino Land (down 2.03% to HKD 11.61) [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech conveyed a "hawkish" signal, indicating persistent inflation and rising uncertainty in the outlook, suggesting that interest rate cuts will not occur unless there is progress on inflation [1] - The latest dot plot from the Federal Reserve shows expectations for one rate cut this year and another in 2027, although the specific timing remains unclear [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities noted that the escalating situation in the Middle East is likely to hinder short-term liquidity expectations in Hong Kong, introducing uncertainty for the recovery of the real estate market [1] - In the long term, the changes in the Middle East may enhance Hong Kong's attractiveness for global risk-averse and diversified capital allocation, particularly as Middle Eastern capital has shown a positive inclination towards investment in Greater China, potentially increasing demand for core commercial real estate and high-end residential properties in Hong Kong [1]

Group 1 - Hong Kong real estate stocks are generally declining, with notable drops in companies such as Hang Lung Properties (down 3.62% to HKD 9.05), Wharf Real Estate Investment (down 3.27% to HKD 24.28), Cheung Kong Property (down 3.88% to HKD 46.08), and Sino Land (down 2.03% to HKD 11.61) [1][1][1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech signaled a "hawkish" stance, indicating persistent inflation and increased uncertainty in the outlook, with no interest rate cuts expected unless inflation shows progress [1][1] - The latest dot plot from the Federal Reserve shows expectations for one rate cut this year and another in 2027, although the specific timing remains unclear [1][1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities noted that the escalating situation in the Middle East is likely to hinder short-term liquidity expectations in Hong Kong, introducing uncertainty for the recovery of the real estate market [1][1] - In the long term, the changes in the Middle East may enhance Hong Kong's attractiveness for global risk aversion and diversified capital allocation, particularly as Middle Eastern capital has shown a positive inclination towards investment in Greater China [1][1] - This could potentially lead to increased demand for core commercial real estate and high-end residential properties in Hong Kong [1][1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, focusing on high-quality real estate companies and commercial real estate [4][30]. Core Insights - The investment side remains weak, with a significant decline in new starts and completions, indicating a challenging environment for the real estate sector [4][20]. - Sales metrics show a contraction, but the decline is narrowing, suggesting a potential bottoming out phase for the market [21][30]. - Funding sources are under pressure, with a notable decrease in domestic loans and personal mortgage loans, although there are signs of gradual improvement expected due to policy support [33]. Summary by Sections Investment Side - In January-February 2026, real estate development investment totaled 961.2 billion yuan, down 11.1% year-on-year, with new starts down 23.1% and completions down 27.9% [4][20]. - The report forecasts a continued weak investment environment, with predictions of a 7.7% decline in new starts, a 13.1% decline in completions, and a 9.1% decline in overall investment for 2026 [4][20]. Sales Side - The total sales area for January-February 2026 was 0.9 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 13.5%, while sales revenue fell by 20.2% to 818.6 billion yuan [21][30]. - The average selling price of properties decreased by 7.7% year-on-year, indicating ongoing pricing pressure in the market [29][30]. - The report anticipates that sales will remain below demand levels in the short term, with a forecast of a 7.6% decline in sales area, a 9.4% decline in sales revenue, and a 2.0% decline in prices for 2026 [32][30]. Funding Side - Total funding sources for real estate development in January-February 2026 were 1.3 trillion yuan, down 16.5% year-on-year, with domestic loans decreasing by 13.9% [33]. - The report highlights a tightening in funding conditions, particularly in personal mortgage loans, which saw a 41.9% year-on-year decline [33]. - Despite the current funding pressures, the report suggests that ongoing policy support may lead to gradual improvements in funding availability [33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the real estate industry [3][6]. Core Viewpoints - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes accelerating the construction of a new real estate development model, establishing a multi-subject supply and multi-channel guarantee housing system, and achieving a higher level of housing security [8][6]. - The industry is expected to transition from rapid development to high-quality development, focusing on housing supply, public housing fund systems, foundational systems, supply and inventory management, housing leasing, and lifecycle management [6][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Housing Security System - The plan proposes optimizing the supply, use, and management of affordable housing, enhancing support for low-income urban families, and addressing the housing needs of new citizens and youth [9][10]. - It emphasizes a full-process management approach for affordable housing, including application, waiting, allocation, use, and exit mechanisms [11][12]. 2. New Real Estate Model - The plan calls for improving foundational systems for commodity housing development, financing, and sales, and supports the implementation of project company systems and financing lead bank systems [24][25]. - It suggests managing land supply and layout in coordination with housing inventory and population changes, granting local governments more autonomy in real estate market regulation [30][31]. - The plan also aims to activate existing land and projects, which could reduce the overall inventory cycle in the housing market [34][35]. 3. High-Quality Housing - The plan advocates for increasing the supply of improved housing and constructing safe, comfortable, green, and smart homes, while also enhancing property service quality [45][46]. - It highlights the need for a regulated and professionalized housing leasing market, with a focus on lifecycle safety management for housing [48][49]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report identifies key companies in the industry, including China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, China Resources Land, and others, suggesting they may benefit from valuation recovery due to low financing costs and high market share in core areas [66][67]. - It also notes that the REITs market could expand with quality underlying assets such as affordable rental housing and shopping centers, which are expected to provide stable cash flows [68][69].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Hang Lung Properties may see a significant increase in tenant sales in mainland China during the first two months of 2026, potentially accelerating from an 18% year-on-year growth in Q4 of last year to over 20% in the first two months of this year, driven by the luxury fashion sector and a substantial increase in gold and jewelry sales [1] Group 1 - The luxury fashion industry is expected to show mid to high single-digit growth, contributing to the overall increase in tenant sales [1] - Sales in the gold and jewelry category are projected to grow between 50% to 100%, further boosting overall performance [1] - The forecast for the annual increase in tenant sales has been revised upward to between 10% and 15%, compared to the previous estimate of 5% to 10% [1] Group 2 - The target price for Hang Lung Properties has been set at HKD 12, and it is reiterated as a preferred stock with a rating of "Overweight" [1]

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan has raised the forecast for Hang Lung Properties' (00101) annual tenant sales growth to between 10% and 15%, up from the previous estimate of 5% to 10%, with a target price of HKD 12 and a rating of "Overweight" [1] Group 1 - The stock price of Hang Lung Properties has corrected approximately 10% from its recent high, with southbound investors reducing their holdings, while offshore investor interest is increasing [1] - The current valuation is attractive, equivalent to a 67% discount to the estimated net asset value (NAV) per share and a yield of 5.6% [1] - JPMorgan reaffirms Hang Lung Properties as one of its preferred stocks, with a potential upside of 30% [1] Group 2 - Based on feedback from local experts, luxury brands, and other owners, it is estimated that tenant sales in mainland China for Hang Lung Properties could further increase in the first two months of 2026, potentially accelerating from a year-on-year growth of 18% in Q4 of last year to over 20% in the first two months of this year [1] - The growth is supported by the mid to high single-digit growth in the luxury fashion sector, with the gold and jewelry category expected to grow between 50% and 100% [1]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 | 截至月份: | 2026年2月28日 | 狀態: | 新提交 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 | | | | | 公司名稱: | 恒隆地產有限公司 | | | | 呈交日期: | 2026年3月5日 | | | | I. 法定/註冊股本變動 不適用 | | | | | 備註： | | | | | 恒隆地產有限公司並無法定股本，及其股本並無股份面值。 | | | | FF301 第 1 頁 共 10 頁 v 1.2.0 FF301 II. 已發行股份及/或庫存股份變動及足夠公眾持股量的確認 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00101 | 說明 | 不適用 | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數目 | | 庫存股份數目 | | 已發行股份總數 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2][28]. Core Insights - The report indicates that after a deep adjustment in the real estate sector, the industry fundamentals are approaching a bottom, supported by recent central government policies aimed at stabilizing the market [2][28]. - The report highlights a significant increase in new home transactions, with a week-on-week increase of 334.6% in 34 key cities, indicating a recovery trend [3][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of quality real estate companies and commercial properties, suggesting that they will recover profitability sooner and with more elasticity due to improved industry dynamics [2][28]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transaction Volume - In the week of February 21-27, 2026, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.057 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 334.6% [3][11]. - The transaction volume for first-tier cities was 950,000 square meters, up 315.9% week-on-week, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a staggering increase of 626.2% [3][11]. Second-Hand Home Transaction Volume - In the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 key cities reached 512,000 square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 823.7% [11]. - However, the cumulative transaction volume for February showed a year-on-year decline of 25.5% compared to the previous year [11]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of February 21-27, 2026, 15 key cities launched 120,000 square meters of new supply, with total sales of 380,000 square meters, resulting in a sales-to-launch ratio of 3.1 times [21]. - The total available residential area in these cities was 88.436 million square meters, showing a slight decrease of 0.3% week-on-week [21]. Policy and News Tracking - The People's Bank of China announced that the loan market quotation rate (LPR) for February remained unchanged, with a 1-year LPR at 3% and a 5-year LPR at 3.5% [28][29]. - The "Shanghai Seven Measures" policy was introduced to optimize the local real estate market, including reducing the purchase threshold for non-local residents and increasing the maximum public housing fund loan amount for first-time buyers [28][29]. Company Announcements - New City Development successfully issued $355 million in senior unsecured bonds with a maturity of 3 years and a coupon rate of 11.8% [36]. - The report notes that the real estate sector underperformed compared to the broader market, with the SW Real Estate Index rising by only 0.6% compared to a 1.08% increase in the CSI 300 Index [37][38].

Core Viewpoint - The Morgan S&P Hong Kong Stock Connect Low Volatility Dividend ETF (513630) has shown a slight increase in its closing price and has experienced a decrease in both share count and total assets since the beginning of the year [1]. Group 1: Fund Overview - The Morgan S&P Hong Kong Stock Connect Low Volatility Dividend ETF was established on November 23, 2023, with an annual management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.10% [1]. - As of February 26, 2024, the fund's latest share count is 9.58 billion, and the total asset size is 16.508 billion [1]. - The fund's performance benchmark is the S&P Hong Kong Stock Connect Low Volatility Dividend Index [1]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - Year-to-date, the fund has seen a 7.22% decrease in share count and a 0.82% decrease in total assets compared to December 31, 2023 [1]. - Over the last 20 trading days, the cumulative trading amount reached 7.782 billion, with an average daily trading amount of 389 million [1]. - In the year-to-date period, the cumulative trading amount is 14.394 billion, with an average daily trading amount of 423 million [1]. Group 3: Fund Management - The current fund managers are He Zhihao and Hu Di, both of whom have managed the fund since its inception, achieving a return of 71.48% during their tenure [2]. - The latest report indicates that the fund's top holdings include Jiangxi Copper Co., Far East Horizon, China Shenhua Energy, CNOOC, and others, with specific weightings in the portfolio [2]. Group 4: Top Holdings - Jiangxi Copper Co. holds 4.51% of the portfolio, valued at 751 million [3]. - Far East Horizon accounts for 3.37%, valued at 561 million [3]. - China Shenhua Energy represents 3.12%, valued at 519 million [3]. - CNOOC has a holding of 3.11%, valued at 518 million [3]. - Other significant holdings include Henderson Land Development, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, and Hang Seng Bank, each with varying percentages and valuations [3].

Core Viewpoint - The report from JPMorgan indicates surprise over the increase in stamp duty rates for properties valued over 100 million, but the bank is not overly concerned as it will only affect 0.3% of transactions [1] Group 1: Stamp Duty Impact - The increase in stamp duty (2.25%) is expected to have a minimal impact on ultra-wealthy buyers, as property prices may rise enough to offset this cost within a month or two [1] - In 2025, there were only 169 transactions valued over 100 million, highlighting the limited scope of the tax increase [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - The policy is viewed as a redistribution fiscal measure aimed at taxing the ultra-wealthy to subsidize low-income groups, rather than suppressing the real estate market [1] - The announcement may trigger a stronger "fear of missing out" (FOMO) among buyers of properties priced between 50 million and 99.9 million, who may worry about future tax increases [1] Group 3: Developer Recommendations - The most favored developers currently include Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016), Henderson Land Development (00012), and Sino Land Company (00083) [1] - Recommended rental stocks include Hang Lung Properties (00101) and Swire Properties (01972) [1]