Group 1: Office Market Performance - In Q3 2025, Shanghai's Grade A office net absorption reached 190,400 square meters, driven by cost-driven relocations and upgrades, with some industries showing expansion demand [1] - The overall vacancy rate for office buildings in Shanghai decreased by 0.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, with the central business district (CBD) vacancy rate dropping by 0.6 percentage points and non-CBD areas by 0.5 percentage points [1][2] - The total net absorption for the first three quarters of 2025 surpassed the entire previous year's level, reaching 270,000 square meters [1] Group 2: Rental Trends and Demand - Rental rates for office buildings continued to decline in Q3 2025, maintaining a favorable environment for tenants, influenced by the ongoing influx of new projects [2] - The demand for retail properties remained active, with net absorption in the city reaching approximately 105,500 square meters despite no new supply in Q3 2025 [3][4] Group 3: Retail Market Insights - The core shopping districts in Shanghai saw a vacancy rate decrease of 0.8 percentage points in Q3 2025, driven by brands' demand for flagship and concept stores [4] - Retail leasing activity increased significantly in tourist-heavy areas like Nanjing East Road and Xintiandi, with notable improvements in net absorption [4] Group 4: Investment Market Dynamics - The investment market in Shanghai showed signs of recovery in Q3 2025, with office transactions regaining dominance and investor interest in stable cash flows driving transactions [6][7] - A significant transaction involving the Shanghai Bohua Plaza project was completed at a price of approximately 10.8 billion yuan, marking a record for single transactions in two years and boosting confidence in core city assets [7] - Investment demand accounted for 91% of the market, indicating a strong focus on capital allocation, with high-net-worth investors and various corporate buyers actively participating [7]

Core Viewpoint - DBS Research indicates that Hang Lung Properties' overall tenant sales in mainland China grew by 10% year-on-year in Q3 2025, primarily driven by Shanghai's Plaza 66, with Wuhan's performance stabilizing and gradual openings in Hangzhou expected to support future rental income growth [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Tenant sales in mainland China increased by 10% year-on-year in Q3 2025 [1] - Shanghai Plaza 66 was the main contributor to this growth, while Wuhan's sales performance is stabilizing [1] Group 2: Future Developments - Hangzhou Plaza is set to gradually open, with office buildings and shopping mall sections expected to commence operations in phases starting this year and Q2 next year, achieving pre-leasing rates of 27% and 83% respectively [1] Group 3: Investment Outlook - DBS believes that Hang Lung's valuation remains attractive, especially for long-term investors seeking exposure to China's high-end retail sector [1] - The target price for Hang Lung has been raised from HKD 9.38 to HKD 10, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - DBS has released a report stating that the valuation of Hang Lung Properties (00101) remains attractive, particularly for long-term investors seeking to invest in China's high-end shopping mall sector. The report anticipates that any further consumer stimulus policies introduced by authorities could enhance its investment appeal, maintaining a "Buy" rating and raising the target price from HKD 9.38 to HKD 10 [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Hang Lung is recognized as a leading commercial real estate developer in China, holding a portfolio of commercial properties for long-term investment purposes. The company expects rental income to improve due to enhanced tenant sales and portfolio expansion [1] - The overall tenant sales of Hang Lung's shopping malls in mainland China are projected to increase by 10% year-on-year by the third quarter of 2025, primarily driven by the performance of Shanghai's Plaza 66. The sales performance of Wuhan's Hang Lung Plaza is also stabilizing [1] Group 2: Future Developments - The Hang Lung Plaza in Hangzhou is set to gradually open, with office buildings and shopping mall sections scheduled to be phased in starting this year and the second quarter of next year. The pre-leasing rates are expected to reach 27% and 83%, respectively, which is believed to support rental income growth in the coming years [1]

Core Viewpoint - DBS has released a report indicating that the valuation of Hang Lung Properties (00101) remains attractive, particularly for long-term investors seeking opportunities in China's high-end shopping mall sector. The report maintains a "Buy" rating and raises the target price from HKD 9.38 to HKD 10 [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Hang Lung is recognized as a leading commercial real estate developer in China, holding a portfolio of commercial properties for long-term investment purposes [1] - The report anticipates improvements in tenant sales and expansion of the property portfolio, which are expected to drive rental income growth [1] Group 2: Market Trends - Overall tenant sales in Hang Lung's mainland China malls are projected to increase by 10% year-on-year by the third quarter of 2025, primarily driven by the performance of Shanghai's Plaza 66 [1] - The sales performance of Wuhan's Hang Lung Plaza is stabilizing, while the Hang Lung Plaza in Hangzhou is set to gradually open, with office buildings and mall sections expected to be phased in starting this year and the second quarter of next year, achieving pre-leasing rates of 27% and 83% respectively [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights the competitive landscape of commercial real estate in China, focusing on Hang Lung Group's strategic approach to maintaining its market position through selective expansion and partnerships [1][6]. Company Strategy - Hang Lung Group has signed a 20-year operating lease with Baida Group for the South and North buildings of Hangzhou Department Store, significantly increasing the retail space of Hangzhou Hang Lung Plaza by 40% and street-facing area by over 200% [1][7]. - The company emphasizes a shift from aggressive expansion to enhancing existing assets and customer experience, focusing on core cities to improve investment returns [1][6]. - The current strategy, termed "Hang Lung V.3," reflects a move away from a growth model based solely on quantity, recognizing the saturation of commercial space in various cities [6][8]. Market Conditions - The office market is experiencing downward pressure on rents, with CBRE projecting a 9.9% decline in national office rents by 2025, an increase of 3.2 percentage points from earlier predictions [5]. - The retail market shows signs of recovery, with Hang Lung's Shanghai Plaza maintaining a high occupancy rate of 98% despite ongoing renovations [5][6]. Project Developments - The Hangzhou project is the 11th comprehensive commercial project for Hang Lung in mainland China, with a retail pre-leasing rate of 83% and plans for phased openings starting in late 2025 [7][8]. - The company plans to complete renovations within a year of acquiring the properties, aiming to integrate the new space into the existing Hangzhou Hang Lung Plaza [9]. Competitive Landscape - Hang Lung aims to collaborate with local competitors like Hangzhou Tower to enhance the overall commercial environment rather than engage in direct competition [9].

Core Viewpoint - CICC's research report indicates that Hang Lung Properties is expected to see a 10% year-on-year growth in retail sales for its mainland shopping malls in the third quarter, with improvements observed quarterly throughout the year [1] Group 1: Retail Performance - During the National Day holiday period, Hang Lung Properties reported a 15% year-on-year increase in retail sales for the first four days of October, with a 3% year-on-year increase in foot traffic [1] - The most significant retail growth was noted in Wuhan and Shanghai's Harbour City [1] Group 2: Ratings and Forecasts - CICC maintains a "outperform" rating for Hang Lung Properties and continues to uphold its earnings forecast [1] - The target price for Hang Lung Properties is set at HKD 9.46 [1]

Core Insights - The report from CICC indicates that the second-hand housing market in September shows a mixed performance, with transaction volume declining month-on-month but increasing year-on-year, suggesting ongoing market weakness [1][2]. Transaction Volume and Price Trends - In September, the transaction volume index for second-hand residential properties in 80 cities decreased by 10% month-on-month but increased by 19% year-on-year (Q3 +19%, Q2 +17%) [1]. - The registered transaction area in 15 cities rose by 6% month-on-month and grew by 9% year-on-year (Q3 +3%, Q2 +11%) [1]. - The price index for homogeneous second-hand residential properties fell by 1.7% month-on-month (Q3 average -1.7%, Q2 average -1.4%) [1]. - The negotiation space for transactions increased by 25 basis points to 8.91% [1]. Listing Trends - The number of second-hand residential listings in 130 cities increased by 0.4% month-on-month, continuing a slight upward trend [2]. - The price index for homogeneous listings in key cities decreased by 1.5% month-on-month (Q3 average -1.3%, Q2 average -1.2%) [2]. - The average adjustment for listed properties was -5.24%, indicating a conservative price expectation among sellers [2]. Rental Market Insights - The rental index for homogeneous listings decreased by 0.8% month-on-month (August -0.5%) [3]. - The average rental period remained stable at 2.12 months [3]. - The rental-to-sale ratio increased by 2 basis points to 2.33% due to declining listing prices [3]. Investment Recommendations - The company suggests focusing on investment opportunities in the real estate and property management sectors, particularly in companies with solid fundamentals and profit quality such as China Resources Land, Jianfa International, and others [4]. - It also recommends considering undervalued stocks like Greentown China and New Town Holdings, given potential liquidity improvements [4]. - The report highlights the importance of identifying stocks with strong growth prospects or attractive dividend yields across various sectors [4].

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains a "outperform" rating and profit forecast for Hang Lung Properties (00101), with a target price of HKD 9.46 per share, corresponding to a 15x core P/E for 2025, a 5.5% dividend yield, and a 5% upside potential [1] Group 1: Retail Performance - The retail performance of mainland shopping malls is expected to improve, with a projected 10% year-on-year increase in retail sales for Q3 2025, following a trend of quarterly improvement throughout the year [2] - Contributing factors include a low base from the previous year (Q3 2024 retail sales down 18%), effective marketing strategies, and an expected 9% increase in foot traffic during July-August [2] - During the National Day holiday, retail sales increased by 15% year-on-year, with notable growth in Wuhan and Shanghai [2] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The company has launched the "Hang Lung V.3" strategy, focusing on reinvestment in existing projects and exploring potential opportunities in surrounding areas [3] - Specific initiatives include the expansion of Shanghai Hang Lung Plaza, which is expected to increase rental space by 30%, and the transformation of Shanghai Port Exchange into a five-star hotel [3] Group 3: Performance of Key Malls - Shanghai Hang Lung Plaza is expected to maintain its leading position in the luxury market, with new openings of high-end brands anticipated to further boost retail sales [4] - Shanghai Port Exchange is focusing on luxury brand expansion and optimizing its mix of sports, outdoor, and dining brands, with a projected 31% year-on-year increase in retail sales for Q3 2025 [4] - Wuxi Hang Lung Plaza has shown continuous growth since introducing luxury brands, with over 180 new brands expected to be signed in 2024-2025, including more than 70 first stores in Jiangsu or Wuxi [4]

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains a "outperform" rating and profit forecast for Hang Lung Properties (00101), with a target price of HKD 9.46 per share, corresponding to a 15x core P/E for 2025, a 5.5% dividend yield, and a 5% upside potential [1] Group 1: Retail Performance - The retail performance of mainland shopping malls is expected to improve, with a projected year-on-year increase of 10% in retail sales for Q3 2025, following a trend of quarterly improvement throughout the year [2] - Contributing factors include a low base from the previous year (Q3 2024 retail sales down 18%), effective marketing strategies, and an expected 9% year-on-year increase in foot traffic during July and August [2] - During the National Day holiday, retail sales increased by 15% year-on-year, with notable growth in Wuhan and Shanghai [2] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The company has launched the "Hang Lung V.3" strategy, focusing on reinvesting in existing projects and exploring potential opportunities in surrounding areas [3] - Specific initiatives include the expansion of Shanghai Hang Lung Plaza, which is expected to increase rentable area by 30%, and the transformation of Shanghai Port Exchange into a five-star hotel [3] Group 3: Performance of Key Malls - Shanghai Hang Lung Plaza is expected to maintain its leading position in the luxury market through targeted services for high-end clientele, with new openings anticipated to further boost retail sales [4] - Shanghai Port Exchange is focusing on luxury brand expansion and optimizing its mix of sports, outdoor, and dining brands, with a projected year-on-year retail sales increase of 31% for Q3 2025 [4] - Wuxi Hang Lung Plaza has seen continuous growth since introducing luxury brands, with over 180 new brands expected to be signed in 2024-2025, including more than 70 first stores in Jiangsu or Wuxi [4]

Company Overview - Recent management roadshow and site visits conducted by the company revealed a strengthening trend in retail performance for its mainland shopping malls, with a projected 10% year-on-year increase in retail sales for Q3 2025, following a gradual improvement throughout the year [1] - The company attributes this improvement to a low base from the previous year, effective marketing strategies, and an increase in foot traffic, which is expected to rise by 9% in July and August [1] Strategic Initiatives - The company has launched the "Henglong V.3" strategy to reinforce its market position in core cities, focusing on reinvestment in existing projects and exploring potential opportunities in surrounding areas [2] - Specific initiatives under this strategy include a 30% increase in leasable area at Shanghai Henglong Plaza, the transformation of Shanghai Port Exchange Henglong into a five-star hotel, and a 40% increase in retail space through long-term leasing cooperation in Hangzhou [2] Performance Insights - Key shopping malls in East China are performing well, with Shanghai Henglong Plaza expected to maintain its leading position in the luxury market, bolstered by the opening of high-end brands [2] - Shanghai Port Exchange Henglong is optimizing its brand mix, with a projected 31% year-on-year increase in retail sales for Q3 2025 [2] - Wuxi Henglong Plaza has seen continuous growth since introducing luxury brands in 2019, with over 180 new brand signings expected between 2024 and 2025, including more than 70 first stores in Jiangsu or Wuxi [2] Financial Projections - The company maintains an outperform rating and unchanged profit forecasts, with a target price of HKD 9.46 per share, reflecting a 15x core P/E for 2025 and a 5.5% dividend yield [2] - Current trading is at 14.6x core P/E for 2025, with a 5.8% dividend yield, suggesting continued attention to year-on-year retail performance and the progress of new openings [3]