Core Viewpoint - In 2024, China Resources Beer (00291.HK) experienced a decline in both revenue and net profit, with total revenue at 38.635 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.76% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 4.739 billion yuan, down 8.03% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Beer Business Performance - The beer business revenue was 36.486 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1%, with sales volume at approximately 10.874 million kiloliters, down 2.5% year-on-year [1] - Despite the decline in revenue and sales volume, the gross profit margin for the beer business increased by 0.9 percentage points to 41.1% due to the high-end strategy and a decrease in some packaging costs [2][3] - High-end beer sales grew by over 9% year-on-year, with brands like "Heineken" seeing nearly 20% growth, while "Snow" and "Red Duke" sales nearly doubled [2] Group 2: Cash Flow and Financial Health - The net cash inflow from operating activities increased by 67% to 6.928 billion yuan, marking a five-year high [1][6] - The average selling price of beer rose by 1.5% year-on-year, contributing to the improved gross profit margin [2] Group 3: White Wine Business Performance - The white wine business revenue grew by 4% to 2.149 billion yuan, although it fell short of the previously estimated growth target of over 30% [4][6] - The gross profit margin for the white wine business increased by 5.6 percentage points to 68.5% [6] - The brand "Abstract" under the white wine segment saw a 35% increase in sales, contributing over 70% to the white wine business revenue [6][7] Group 4: Strategic Focus and Future Outlook - The company plans to continue focusing on high-end products like "Heineken," "Snow Pure," and "superX" to drive growth in 2025 [3] - The company is expected to seek breakthroughs amid the dual pressures of declining beer sales and slowing white wine growth [7]

Financial Performance - For the year ended December 31, 2024, the total turnover was RMB 38,635 million, a decrease of 0.8% compared to RMB 38,932 million in 2023[81]. - Profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was RMB 4,739 million, down from RMB 5,153 million in 2023, representing a decrease of 8.0%[81]. - Basic earnings per share for 2024 were RMB 1.46, compared to RMB 1.59 in 2023, reflecting a decline of 8.2%[81]. - The Group's consolidated turnover for 2024 was RMB 38,635,000,000, with EBIT of RMB 6,574,000,000 and profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 4,739,000,000[99]. - The Group's EBIT, excluding certain one-off items, increased by 2.9% year-on-year to RMB 6,344,000,000, while net cash from operating activities rose by 67.0% year-on-year to RMB 6,928,000,000[99]. - The Group's overall beer sales volume in 2024 was approximately 10,874,000 kilolitres, a decrease of 2.5% year-on-year, with revenue from beer business slightly declining by 1.0% to RMB 36,486,000,000[113]. - The beer segment's turnover decreased by 0.2% to RMB 38,254 million in 2024, while the Baijiu segment saw a growth of 3.7% to RMB 2,161 million[92]. - The Group's EBITDA for the beer business increased by 2.4% year-on-year to RMB 7,881,000,000, excluding certain one-off expenses[115][119]. - The Group's baijiu business achieved a year-on-year turnover increase of 4.0% to RMB 2,149,000,000, with a gross profit margin rising by 5.6 percentage points to 68.5%[161]. - The Group's baijiu business achieved an EBITDA of RMB 852,000,000, representing a year-on-year increase of 0.5 percentage points[163]. Operational Highlights - In 2024, CR Beer achieved a net cash from operating activities increase of 67.0%[22]. - The gross profit margin reached 42.6%, hitting a five-year high[22]. - Sales volume of premium beer segment and above increased by 9%[22]. - Sales volume of premium baijiu "Zhaiyao" rose by 35%[22]. - The Group's premium beer sales volume increased by over 9% year-on-year, with "Heineken®" achieving nearly 20% growth and "Li" seeing a 35% increase[114][118]. - The average selling price of beer rose by 1.5% year-on-year, contributing to a gross profit margin increase of 0.9 percentage points to 41.1% for 2024[115][119]. - The Group launched new products including the super-premium "Nong Li" and the premium "Ken 14", achieving significant sales growth[150][153]. - The Group operated 62 breweries across 25 provinces in Mainland China, with an annual production capacity of approximately 19,000,000 kilolitres[152]. - The Group's current liabilities were RMB 26,054,000,000, with a current ratio of 0.60, indicating sufficient resources to meet liabilities and commitments[171][176]. Strategic Initiatives - CR Beer established a dual empowerment model for beer and baijiu businesses to drive integrated development[30]. - The company is advancing the revitalization of the domestic beer barley industry through collaboration with the National Barley and Highland Barley Industry Technology System[30]. - The Group is committed to the "Winning at Premiumisation" strategy from 2023 to 2025, focusing on high-quality development and technological innovation[98]. - The Group is committed to technological innovation and digital empowerment, focusing on high-quality procurement, manufacturing excellence, and integrated supply chain management to enhance profitability[132]. - The Group plans to deepen its penetration of existing channels and expand into emerging channels such as online business and instant delivery to improve channel efficiency and profitability[131]. - The Group is actively promoting green development and aims for more factories to obtain carbon-neutral certification and National Green Plant designations[140]. - The Group's focus on "Domestic Barley* Revitalisation" supports rural revitalisation and promotes green agriculture development[158]. Awards and Recognition - The Group achieved high-quality growth in turnover and profit for three consecutive years, receiving the "2023 China Resources Group High-Quality Development Comprehensive Award – Silver Award"[41]. - The Group's Snow Beer topped the 2024 China Brand Power Index (C-BPI®) for the beer industry, and both "Snow Beer" and "Brave the World" were recognized among the "2024 China's 500 Most Valuable Brands"[46]. - The Group received the Outstanding Sustainable Enterprise Award for Listed Company (Beverage) at the ESG Green Development & Carbon Neutrality Awards 2023[55]. - The Group was recognized with the Outstanding ESG Corporate Award for Listed Company (Brewing) at the ESG Award 2024[61]. - The Group was awarded the Most Growing Listed Company in Consumer Goods Sector in the 2024 Reputation List of Listed Companies[75]. - The Group received multiple prestigious awards, including the "Directors Of The Year Awards" for three consecutive years and the "Climate Governance Awards" in 2024, highlighting its achievements in corporate governance and investor relations[199]. Investor Relations - The Group's investor relations efforts were recognized with multiple awards, including eight awards in Institutional Investor's "2024 All-Asia Executive Team" rankings[44]. - The Group maintained close communication with over 4,600 fund managers and analysts through nearly 400 meetings across various locations, including Shanghai, Beijing, Singapore, the UK, and the US[195]. - The Group's management actively addressed market concerns during investor and analyst meetings attended by over 100 participants[195]. - The Group's commitment to transparency and timely information disclosure was emphasized through various communication channels, including teleconferences and investor conferences[194]. - The Group aims to enhance corporate governance transparency and safeguard the long-term interests of shareholders in the future[200]. Future Outlook - The Group maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook for its overall performance in 2025, bolstered by national policies to boost consumer spending and steady economic growth[135]. - CR Beer aims for sustained rapid double-digit sales volume growth for "Heineken®" and expects "superX" to regain stronger sales momentum post-revitalisation in 2024[130]. - The Group plans to implement a "streamlined, precise, and lean" strategy to respond to new consumption trends and enhance competitive positioning[159].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of China Resources Beer in 2024 was mixed, with record-high gross margins but declining revenue and net profit, particularly in its white liquor business, which faced significant challenges [1][2][9]. Financial Performance - In 2024, China Resources Beer reported a total revenue of 38.635 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.76% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.739 billion yuan, down 8.03% [2]. - This marked the first revenue decline in five years, with net profit falling below 5 billion yuan [2]. Gross Margin and Profitability - Despite the revenue and profit decline, the company's overall gross margin increased by 1.2 percentage points to 42.6%, the highest in five years [3]. - The gross margin for the beer segment reached 41.1%, up 0.9 percentage points, while the white liquor segment saw a significant increase of 5.6 percentage points to 68.5% [3]. Strategic Developments - The high-end strategy has shown positive results, with sales of premium products in the beer segment growing over 9%, and the sales of the "Li" brand increasing by 35% [3][5]. - The company has also seen a notable increase in online sales channels, with GMV growing over 30% [5]. Challenges in White Liquor Business - The white liquor segment faced challenges, including high inventory levels and price discrepancies, particularly with core assets like Jinsha Liquor [4][6]. - Despite a 4% revenue growth in the white liquor segment to 2.149 billion yuan, the overall performance was hindered by these issues [4]. Management and Strategic Execution - Frequent changes in management, particularly at Jinsha Liquor, have raised concerns about stability and strategic execution [7][8]. - The aggressive growth targets set for the white liquor business have not been met, leading to increased pressure on management [7]. Industry Context - The report reflects the broader challenges faced by traditional giants in transitioning through cross-industry acquisitions, highlighting the difficulties in adapting to new market dynamics [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative performance increase of over 15% against the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [4][9]. Core Views - The company has shown significant results in premiumization, achieving a strong start in 2025. Despite a challenging environment, the high-end product sales have grown over 9%, with Heineken sales increasing nearly 20% [6]. - The beer business revenue for 2024 is projected at 36.49 billion, a slight decline of 1% year-on-year, while the average selling price has increased by 1.5% to 3,355 yuan per thousand liters [6]. - The company is expected to achieve steady growth in 2025-2027, with revenue forecasts of 40.02 billion, 41.33 billion, and 42.42 billion respectively, and net profits of 5.39 billion, 5.89 billion, and 6.28 billion [6]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company reported an operating revenue of 38.635 billion, a decrease of 4% from the previous year, with a net profit of 4.739 billion, down 8% year-on-year [4][6]. - The EBITDA for 2024, excluding special items, is expected to be 8.694 billion, reflecting a 3% increase year-on-year [6]. - The beer business gross margin improved by 0.9 percentage points to 41.1% in 2024, driven by strong performance in high-end products [6]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 1.66 yuan, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.6 [4][6]. - The report anticipates a gradual increase in net profit margins, with the net profit margin for 2024 expected to be 12.3% [6]. - The company’s cash flow from operating activities is projected to be 6.291 billion in 2025, indicating a positive cash flow trend [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company is focusing on high-end products, with a steady improvement in profit margins due to cost optimization and a favorable product mix [2][3] - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 38.635 billion RMB, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.76% [3] - The report anticipates that the company's earnings per share (EPS) will grow from 1.46 RMB in 2024 to 2.20 RMB by 2027, indicating a positive growth trajectory [3] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 42.64%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to improved raw material costs [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is expected to be 4.739 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 8.03% [3] - The company's operating cash flow for 2024 is projected to increase by 67% to 6.846 billion RMB, providing a solid foundation for future dividend increases [2][3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to see revenue growth in the coming years, with projections of 42.523 billion RMB in 2025 and 44.721 billion RMB in 2026, representing growth rates of 4.82% and 5.17% respectively [3] - The report indicates that the company's EBITDA is expected to grow to 9.537 billion RMB by 2025, with a corresponding EBITDA margin improvement [4] Market Position and Strategy - The company is making strides in high-end product sales, with a notable 35% increase in sales of its flagship product "Zhai Fu" in the white liquor segment [2] - The report emphasizes the company's strategic focus on optimizing production capacity and enhancing operational efficiency, which is expected to contribute positively to profitability [2][3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the company's high-end strategy is yielding results, with a focus on improving profit margins through cost management and operational efficiency [2][3] - The company achieved a revenue of 38.635 billion RMB in 2024, a slight decrease of 0.76% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.739 billion RMB, down 8.03% year-on-year [3][4] - The gross margin improved to 42.64%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to better raw material costs [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 38.635 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of -0.76% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 4.739 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 8.03% [3] - The gross margin for 2024 was 42.64%, up from 41.36% in 2023 [3] - The company expects EPS to grow from 1.46 RMB in 2024 to 2.20 RMB by 2027, indicating a positive outlook for earnings growth [3][4] - The report forecasts a steady increase in revenue, projecting 42.523 billion RMB in 2025, 44.721 billion RMB in 2026, and 47.595 billion RMB in 2027 [3][4] Operational Insights - The company is focusing on high-end product offerings, with a notable increase in sales of premium beers and a 35% year-on-year growth in its high-end liquor product "Zhai Fu" [2][3] - The operational efficiency is highlighted by a significant improvement in cash flow, with net cash inflow from operating activities increasing by 67% year-on-year to 6.928 billion RMB in 2024 [2][3] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the company's profit growth may exceed market expectations due to the gradual recovery of on-premise consumption channels and further cost optimization in 2025 [2][3] - The company is expected to maintain a strong cash position, which will support an increase in dividend payouts in the future [2][3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company is focusing on high-end products, with a steady improvement in profit margins due to cost optimization and a favorable product mix [2][3] - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 38.635 billion RMB, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.76% [3] - The report anticipates that the company's earnings per share (EPS) will grow from 1.46 RMB in 2024 to 2.20 RMB by 2027, indicating a positive growth trajectory [3] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 42.64%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to improved raw material costs [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is expected to be 4.739 billion RMB, reflecting an 8.03% decline compared to the previous year [3] - The company's operating cash flow for 2024 is projected to increase by 67% to 6.846 billion RMB, providing a solid foundation for future dividend increases [2][3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to see revenue growth rates of 4.82%, 5.17%, and 6.43% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3] - The report projects that the company's EBITDA will increase from 8.571 billion RMB in 2025 to 11.668 billion RMB by 2027 [4] - The report indicates that the company's return on equity (ROE) will improve from 14.95% in 2024 to 19.33% in 2027 [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" for the company, expecting a relative increase of 5% to 15% compared to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [19][18]. Core Views - The company's beer business is steadily progressing towards high-end products, while the white liquor segment is experiencing counter-cyclical growth [1][10]. - The company achieved total revenue of 38.635 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%, and a net profit of 4.739 billion yuan, down 8% year-on-year [3][9]. - The high-end beer sales grew by over 9% year-on-year, with Heineken seeing close to 20% growth, and the overall product structure is upgrading with mid-range and above beer sales exceeding 50% for the first time [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 38.635 billion yuan and a net profit of 4.739 billion yuan, with EBIT at 4.567 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year [3][9]. - The overall gross margin improved to 42.6%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, with the beer segment's gross margin at 41.1% [6][9]. Sales and Growth - The beer sales volume in 2024 was 10.874 million tons, with a price of 3,355 yuan per ton, showing a decrease of 2.5% in volume but an increase of 1.5% in price year-on-year [4][5]. - The white liquor business generated revenue of 2.149 billion yuan, up 4% year-on-year, with a gross margin increase of 5.6 percentage points to 68.5% [5][6]. Future Projections - Revenue growth is projected at 6% for 2025, 5% for 2026, and 4% for 2027, with net profit growth expected at 9% for 2025 and 8% for the following years [9][12]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.59 yuan for 2025, 1.72 yuan for 2026, and 1.86 yuan for 2027 [9][12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" for the company, expecting a relative increase of 5% to 15% compared to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [19]. Core Insights - The company's beer business is steadily progressing towards high-end products, while the white liquor segment is experiencing counter-cyclical growth [1][10]. - For 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 38.635 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.739 billion yuan, down 8% year-on-year [3][9]. - The company is expected to see revenue growth rates of 6%, 5%, and 4% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profit growth rates of 9%, 8%, and 8% for the same years [6][9]. Summary by Sections Beer Business - In 2024, the company sold 10.874 million tons of beer at a price of 3,355 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.5% in volume but an increase of 1.5% in price. High-end beer sales grew over 9% year-on-year, with Heineken close to 20% growth [4][5]. - The company is expanding its distribution channels, including partnerships with instant retail platforms, resulting in over 30% growth in online GMV [4]. White Liquor Business - The white liquor segment generated revenue of 2.149 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4%, with a gross margin improvement of 5.6 percentage points to 68.5% [5]. - The brand "摘要" saw a sales increase of 35%, contributing over 70% to the white liquor revenue, driven by strong brand building and inventory management [5]. Financial Performance - The overall gross margin for the company improved to 42.6%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year. The EBITDA margin was 20.9%, reflecting a 0.7 percentage point increase [6]. - The company plans to distribute a total dividend of 0.76 yuan per share for 2024, with a payout ratio of 52% [6]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 40.904 billion yuan, 42.758 billion yuan, and 44.588 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 5.145 billion yuan, 5.574 billion yuan, and 6.031 billion yuan [9][12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 34.19, representing a potential upside of 20% from the current price of HKD 28.5 [4][5]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong operational resilience during the industry adjustment period, achieving a total revenue of RMB 38.635 billion in 2024, a slight decline of 0.8% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 8.0% to RMB 4.739 billion [5][6]. - The company is focusing on premiumization in its beer segment, with high-end product sales growing over 9%, and the overall sales volume of beer reaching 10.87 billion liters, a decline of only 2.5%, which is significantly better than major competitors [5][6]. - The company plans to leverage the recovery in the dining scene and expand into overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, to drive future growth [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profitability: - Revenue for 2023 was RMB 38.932 billion, with a projected increase to RMB 39.751 billion in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 2.9% [3][6]. - Net profit for 2023 was RMB 5.153 billion, expected to rise to RMB 5.374 billion in 2025, indicating a growth of 13.4% [3][6]. - The adjusted EBITDA for 2024 was RMB 6.34 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [5][6]. - Earnings Per Share and Dividends: - Basic earnings per share for 2023 was RMB 1.59, projected to increase to RMB 1.66 in 2025 [3][6]. - The dividend per share for 2024 is expected to be RMB 0.76, with a payout ratio of 52%, and the company aims to increase this to over 60% in the next three years [5][6]. - Cash Flow and Efficiency: - The net cash flow from operating activities surged by 67% year-on-year to RMB 6.93 billion, marking a five-year high [5][6]. - The company has improved its overall gross margin to 42.6%, up by 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [5][6]. Strategic Focus - The company is committed to a "three precision strategy" aimed at enhancing operational efficiency and competitiveness, which includes streamlining organization, optimizing costs, and refining operations [5][6]. - The focus on premiumization and product innovation is expected to solidify the company's leading position in the high-end market segment [5][6].