Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2025, but adjusted figures show growth when excluding certain impairments and costs [1][2] Financial Performance - In 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 37.99 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.7% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.37 billion yuan, down 28.9% [1] - For the second half of 2025, total revenue was 14.04 billion yuan, a decline of 5.7%, with a net profit of -2.42 billion yuan compared to 0.03 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - The company recognized goodwill impairment of 2.88 billion yuan; if adjusted for this and other factors, the net profit would be 5.72 billion yuan, an increase of 19.6% [1] Beer Segment Performance - Beer revenue in the second half of 2025 decreased by 4.3%, but sales volume showed resilience with a slight increase of 0.4% to 4.543 million kiloliters; average price per ton fell by 4.6% due to increased promotional activities [1] - For the full year, beer revenue remained stable with a sales volume increase of 1.4%; premium and above product sales grew nearly 10%, while mid-high tier products saw single-digit growth [1] - Notable brands like Heineken and Snow Beer experienced significant growth, with Heineken increasing nearly 20% and Snow Beer around 60% [1] Cost and Efficiency - The company benefited from lower beer costs, with a ton cost decrease of 3.1%, leading to a gross margin decline of 1.1 percentage points to 32.4% in the second half of 2025 [2] - For the full year, the gross margin was 42.5%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points; operational efficiency improved with reductions in sales and management expense ratios [2] White Spirit Segment - The white spirit business faced challenges with revenue of 1.5 billion yuan, down 30.4% for the year, and a 25.9% decline in the second half [2] - The company recorded a significant goodwill impairment of 2.88 billion yuan, leading to a 69.0% decline in EBITDA for the white spirit segment [2] Strategic Initiatives - The new leadership team demonstrated strong execution and cohesion, focusing on innovation to drive growth, including the launch of new beer products [3] - The company is exploring new channel opportunities and partnerships with platforms like Alibaba and JD.com to expand its market reach [3] - Plans to cultivate the Greater Bay Area as a new growth engine and to enhance the resilience of its channel ecosystem were highlighted [3] Investment Outlook - The company is expected to continue its high-end strategy and product upgrades, with improved gross margins and operating cash flow [4] - Adjusted profit forecasts for 2026-2028 are set at 6.39 billion, 6.78 billion, and 7.14 billion yuan respectively, maintaining a target price of 40 HKD [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 37.985 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.371 billion yuan, down 28.9%. Adjusting for a goodwill impairment of 2.877 billion yuan in the liquor business, the net profit would be 6.248 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 31.8% [1] Beer Business - The beer segment achieved a revenue of 36.489 billion yuan in 2025, a slight increase of 0.01% year-on-year, with sales volume reaching 11.03 million kiloliters, up 1.43% year-on-year. The average price per ton was 3,308 yuan per kiloliter, down 1.41% year-on-year [1] - The company is focusing on high-end beer products, with sales of mid-to-high-end beers growing in the mid-to-high single digits year-on-year, accounting for nearly 25% of total sales. Premium and above beer sales increased by nearly 10%, with Heineken achieving nearly 20% growth, Snow Beer achieving 60% growth, and Red爵 doubling its sales [1] - The company plans to continue its high-end strategy, strengthen its core beer business, and promote the development of emerging businesses and mid-range beer products, particularly in the Greater Bay Area [1] Liquor Business - The liquor segment reported a revenue of 1.496 billion yuan in 2025, a significant decline of 30.39% year-on-year, primarily due to deep adjustments in the liquor industry and a contraction in consumer demand. The industry is experiencing structural adjustments and increased differentiation, with a concentration towards leading brands. The company recorded a goodwill impairment of 2.877 billion yuan for its liquor business [2] - The company aims to strengthen its liquor business with a long-term approach, actively promoting price restructuring to adapt to changing consumer scenarios, enhancing e-commerce penetration, and better managing channel inventory. In the medium to long term, the company plans to expand low-alcohol liquor products and advance digital and green production while exploring global pathways [2] - The company benefited from its high-end strategy, with a gross margin of 43.1% in 2025, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year. The beer business gross margin was 42.5%, up 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, due to the ongoing high-end development and cost savings in raw material procurement. The EBITDA margin for the beer business reached 26.3%, an increase of 3.9 percentage points year-on-year [2] Investment Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of the dining sector and the upcoming World Cup, which may lead to stable growth in performance. The company will continue to promote its high-end strategy and strengthen its core beer business while focusing on long-term development in the liquor sector. The company anticipates net profits attributable to shareholders to increase by 42.9%, 15.9%, and 13.2% in 2026, 2027, and 2028, reaching 4.82 billion, 5.58 billion, and 6.32 billion yuan, respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company achieved a core net profit of 5.72 billion yuan in 2025, slightly exceeding expectations, despite a decline in overall revenue and net profit due to various one-time costs and market conditions [1][2]. Performance Review - In 2025, the company reported revenue of 37.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.37 billion yuan, down 28.9%. After excluding goodwill impairment, after-tax land sale gains, and factory closure losses, the core net profit was 5.72 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.6% [1]. Development Trends - The beer segment continues to upgrade its product structure, with stable growth in premium and above products. In the second half of 2025, the company faced price pressure primarily due to increased one-time expenses. Despite a weak dining environment, the company remains committed to high-end product strategies, with volume and price changes of +0.4% and -4.5% respectively in the second half of 2025 [1][2]. Cost and Efficiency - The company experienced a year-on-year decrease in beer cost per ton of 2.9% in the second half of 2025 and 3.7% for the entire year, mainly due to lower raw material costs. Although there may be upward pressure on costs due to fluctuations in commodity prices, the company is expected to maintain a strong cost reduction and efficiency improvement trend [2]. White Spirit Business - The white spirit business continues to adjust due to industry cycles, with revenue for 2025 and the second half of 2025 at 1.496 billion yuan and 720 million yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year declines of 30.4% and 26.4%. The EBITDA for the same periods was 264 million yuan and 46 million yuan, down 69% and 89% respectively. The goodwill impairment of 2.877 billion yuan was in line with expectations [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to better-than-expected cost reduction and efficiency improvements, the core net profit forecast for 2026 has been raised by 4.3% to 5.997 billion yuan, with a new forecast for 2027 at 6.342 billion yuan. The current stock price corresponds to a core P/E of 12.4 and 11.7 for 2026 and 2027, respectively. The target price is maintained at 32.4 HKD, indicating a 25% upside potential from the current price, with an outperform rating relative to the industry [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Resources Beer is "Outperform the Market" [5][9]. Core Insights - In 2025, the company reported revenue of 39.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.37 billion yuan, down 28.9%, primarily due to goodwill impairment of approximately 2.88 billion yuan related to its liquor business [1][7]. - The beer business showed a slight increase in sales volume, with a year-on-year growth of 1.4%, while the average price per ton decreased by 1.4%. The share of premium products increased to nearly 25%, with Heineken sales growing by nearly 20% [1][7]. - The liquor business faced significant challenges, with revenue of nearly 1.5 billion yuan, down 30.4% year-on-year, impacted by weakened demand and changes in consumption scenarios [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - The beer segment's gross margin improved by 1.4 percentage points to 42.5%, benefiting from lower raw material costs. The core EBITDA margin and EBIT margin increased by 3.9 and 3.8 percentage points, respectively, due to cost reductions and significant expense savings [1][7]. - The company maintained a high dividend payout ratio of 98%, with operating cash flow of 7.13 billion yuan, up 3% year-on-year, and free cash flow of approximately 5.29 billion yuan after capital expenditures [2][8]. - The earnings forecast for 2026-2028 has been slightly adjusted, with expected revenues of 39.09 billion yuan, 39.86 billion yuan, and 40.75 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 2.9%, 2.0%, and 2.2%, respectively [3][9]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The projected net profit for 2026-2028 is 5.92 billion yuan, 6.19 billion yuan, and 6.52 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 75.6%, 4.6%, and 5.3% [3][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.79 yuan, 1.90 yuan, and 2.01 yuan for the respective years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 13, 12, and 11 times [3][9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 31.55, representing a potential upside of 21.3% from the current price of HKD 26.00 [4]. Core Insights - The company demonstrates resilience in profits despite revenue pressure, with a slight decline in revenue to HKD 37.99 billion in 2025, primarily due to a significant adjustment in the liquor business, which saw a 30.4% drop. The core beer business remained stable [5]. - EBITDA increased by 9.9% to HKD 9.88 billion, showcasing strong operational leverage, with beer and liquor segments growing by 17.4% and declining by 69.0%, respectively [5]. - The company is committed to a "limited diversification" strategy, focusing on core markets and promoting specific brands to leverage distribution channels effectively [5]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from HKD 39.85 billion in 2026 to HKD 42.08 billion in 2028, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 2.6% [3][7]. - Net profit is expected to rebound significantly, reaching HKD 5.89 billion in 2026, with further growth to HKD 6.49 billion by 2028, reflecting a recovery from a low of HKD 3.37 billion in 2025 [3][7]. - The basic earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from HKD 1.81 in 2026 to HKD 2.00 in 2028, indicating a positive trend in shareholder returns [3][7]. Operational Performance - The beer business's gross margin is expected to improve to 44% by 2026, driven by premiumization, cost savings, and efficiency improvements [5]. - The company anticipates a return to positive sales price growth in the beer segment as resource allocation adjustments conclude, enhancing profitability [5]. - The report highlights a robust cash flow position, with operating cash flow increasing by 3% to HKD 7.13 billion and free cash flow rising by 54% to HKD 5.29 billion [5]. Market Positioning - The company is strategically positioned to capitalize on the recovery of the dining sector and the growth of instant retail, which are expected to drive overall profit margins upward [5]. - The report emphasizes the company's focus on high-end beer products, with sales of premium brands projected to grow significantly, supporting long-term profitability [5]. Financial Ratios - The report indicates a projected return on equity (ROE) of 16% by 2026, reflecting improved profitability and efficient capital utilization [7]. - The debt-to-equity ratio is expected to remain stable around 49% to 51% over the forecast period, indicating a balanced financial structure [7].

——2025 年华润啤酒业绩点评 | | | [Table_Industry] 食品饮料 啤酒进取，白酒纾压，2026 预期积极 华润啤酒(0291) | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 訾猛(分析师) | 021-38676442 | zimeng@gtht.com | S0880513120002 | | | | 颜慧菁(分析师) | 021-23183952 | yanhuijing@gtht.com | S0880525040022 | [当前价格 Table_CurPrice] (港元)： | 25.38 | | 苗欣(分析师) | 021-23183990 | miaoxin2@gtht.com | S0880525070010 | | | | 陈力宇(分析师) | 021-38677618 | chenliyu@gtht.com | S0880522090005 | [Table_Market] 交易数据 | | 本报告导读 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a current price of HKD 26.00 and a fair value of HKD 31.92 [7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 37.985 billion for 2025, a decrease of 1.7% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 3.371 billion, down 28.9% year-on-year. However, after adjusting for goodwill impairment and other factors, the adjusted EBITDA increased by 9.9% to RMB 9.879 billion, and the adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 19.6% to RMB 5.724 billion [7]. - The beer business showed stable performance, with a volume increase of 1.4% and a cost per ton decrease of 1.4% in 2025. The gross margin for the beer business improved by 1.4 percentage points to 42.5% [7]. - The white liquor business faced challenges, with a revenue decline of 30.4% due to industry adjustments, leading to a goodwill impairment of RMB 2.88 billion [7]. - The company has successfully reduced its expense ratios, with sales and management expense ratios decreasing by 1.4 and 0.2 percentage points, respectively, indicating effective cost management [7]. - The company plans to distribute dividends of RMB 3.32 billion, representing 58% of the adjusted net profit, sharing operational benefits with shareholders [7]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to see net profit attributable to shareholders grow by 80.3%, 9.3%, and 9.0% in 2026, 2027, and 2028, reaching RMB 6.077 billion, RMB 6.639 billion, and RMB 7.236 billion, respectively [7]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are RMB 1.87, RMB 2.05, and RMB 2.23, respectively [7]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 12, 11, and 10 for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively [7].

海外公司跟踪报告 | 必需性消费 证券研究报告 | 公司评级 | 增持（维持） | | --- | --- | | 报告日期 | 2026 年 03 月 25 日 | 基础数据 | 03 月 24 日收盘价（港 | 26.00 | | --- | --- | | 元） | | | 总市值（亿港元） | 843.49 | | 总股本（亿股） | 32.44 | | 来源：聚源，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 | | 相关研究 【兴证海外食饮】华润啤酒：啤酒销量 稳健增长-2025.08.20 分析师：宋健 S0190518010002 BMV912 songjian@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：张悦 S0190522080006 请注意: 张悦并非香港证券及期货事务监 察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事 受监管的活动。 zhangyue20@xyzq.com.cn 华润啤酒(00291.HK) 中高端啤酒稳健增长，白酒承压 投资要点： 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 1/5 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2/5 ⚫ 营收小幅下降，毛利率微升：2025 年，公司营业收入同比下降 1.7%至 379.85 亿元（ ...

2026年3月23日，华润啤酒正式发布2025年全年业绩。在复杂多变的市场环境下，公司始终将高质量发 展作为首要任务，坚定不移地实施高端化战略，聚焦产品、渠道和品牌三大核心领域，确保经营业绩稳 步提升，盈利质量持续优化。 品牌营销年轻化转型，精准抢占市场。国内品牌绑定体育赛事、热门影视，打造国潮标杆；国际品牌依 托顶级赛事、娱乐IP，推广无醇新品，全方位触达年轻群体，品牌活力与影响力同步提升。 丰厚派息回馈股东，多元业务稳步推进。2025年度公司派息总额每股1.021元，同比提升34.3%，派息比 率98.2%，同比提升46个百分点；净现金42.3亿元，同比激增111%，尽显企业责任与发展信心。白酒业 务坚守长期主义，2025年营业额14.96亿元，不计商誉减值下实现盈利2.64亿元，深化啤白协同，推动业 务稳步发展。 凭借出色的业绩表现以及对未来的清晰规划，华润啤酒充满信心迎接各种挑战，继续保持快速增长态 势，书写更加灿烂辉煌的历史篇章。 2025年，华润啤酒综合营业额达379.85亿元，"十四五"期间累计增加65.37亿元，规模优势持续巩固。盈 利能力再创新高，整体毛利率43.1%，近五年最优水平，高端化 ...

在2026年的春天，华润啤酒回顾了其2025年的辉煌战绩，展现出强大的市场竞争力和战略执行力。全年 综合营业额达到379.85亿元，毛利率升至43.1%，经营活动现金流入净额达71.27亿元，均创五年最佳成 绩。高端化战略成为核心驱动力，次高及以上啤酒销量实现显著增长，占整体销量比重接近25%。股东 回报方面，每股派息1.021元，同比提升34.3%，派息比率升至98.2%。白酒业务虽受行业波动影响，但 企业通过多元化举措稳步推进。未来，华润啤酒将继续深耕高端化与多元化，构建可持续增长的核心竞 争力。 盈利双增，股东回报再升级 渠道端，华润啤酒线上业务领跑行业，与多家头部线上平台达成战略合作，还积极探索定制、代加工新 业务模式。品牌营销上，国内品牌通过绑定赛事、影视IP实现年轻化触达，国际品牌借力顶级赛事与热 门电影深化推广，多维度强化品牌影响力。 从最新发布的年报可以看出，华润啤酒正稳步迈向高质量发展的新阶段。无论是啤酒主业还是新兴业务 板块，都展现出强劲的增长潜力。可以预见的是，在接下来几年里，这家公司将凭借自身强大的创新能 力与品牌影响力，在竞争激烈的市场中迎来更加广阔的发展空间。 啤酒主业，高端化成果 ...