证券研究报告 华润啤酒 (291 HK) 24 年压力中进取，25 年复苏中改善 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 3 月 | 18 日│中国香港 | 食品饮料 | 24 年营业总收入/归母净利 386.4/47.4 亿元，同比-0.8/-8.1%，还原关厂/安 置/补助/卖地等一次性收益，24 年核心归母净利同比+0.2%。对应 24H2 营 业总收入/归母净利 142.3/0.3 亿元，同比-9.0%/-93.3%，H2 啤酒同比走势 较 H1 有所改善、但白酒有所走弱，公司整体利润受政府补助及土地出售所 得减少影响较大（24 年同比减少 6.7 亿）。公司指出 25 年以来受益顺周期 政策拉动消费信心恢复，餐饮整体有所改善，1-2 月公司在高基数下实现销 量/营业额个位数增长，EBIT 增速更快，当前渠道库存低于去年同期，后续 顺周期/低库存/低基数催化叠加公司多项战略落地，有望带动基本面持续向 好。维持"买入"评级。 港股通 24 年啤酒销售承压、升级放缓，白酒聚焦调整 啤酒端，24 年啤酒收入/量/价/EBITDA 同比 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beer (291.HK) with a target price of HKD 34.3, representing a potential upside of 20.4% from the current price of HKD 28.5 [3][6]. Core Views - The report highlights that the certainty of a performance turnaround in 2025 for China Resources Beer is greater than that of its competitors. The company is expected to achieve positive revenue growth in its beer business for the full year of 2025, supported by a strong start in the first two months of the year [6][10]. - The company's strategy of continuous premiumization is seen as more favorable compared to major competitors, with a projected sales volume decline of only 2.5% in 2024, which is less severe than that of its peers [6][10]. - The management's emphasis on the "Three Precision" strategy aims to streamline operations and reduce costs, which is expected to enhance profit margins in 2025 [6][10]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for China Resources Beer are as follows: - 2023: RMB 38,932 million - 2024: RMB 38,635 million - 2025E: RMB 39,575 million - 2026E: RMB 40,526 million - 2027E: RMB 41,455 million - The year-on-year growth rates are 10.4%, -0.8%, 2.4%, 2.4%, and 2.3% respectively [2][10]. - Core net profit forecasts are: - 2023: RMB 5,259 million - 2024: RMB 4,766 million - 2025E: RMB 5,346 million - 2026E: RMB 5,758 million - 2027E: RMB 6,145 million - The year-on-year growth rates are 16.3%, -9.4%, 12.2%, 7.7%, and 6.7% respectively [2][10]. - Key financial ratios include: - PE ratios for 2025E: 16.1x - ROE for 2025E: 16.3% [2][10]. Market Positioning - The report indicates that China Resources Beer has a competitive edge over Budweiser APAC, with a stable management team and a sustainable strategic plan. The company is also expected to increase its dividend payout ratio from 40% in 2023 to 52% in 2024, with intentions to reach over 60% in the future [6][10].

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 03 月 19 日 华润啤酒（00291.HK） 目标估值：33 港元 当前股价：28.5 港元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 3244 | | --- | --- | | 香港股（百万股） | 3244 | | 总市值（十亿港元） | 92.5 | | 香港股市值（十亿港元） | 92.5 | | 每股净资产（港元） | 11.7 | | ROE（TTM） | 15.0 | | 资产负债率 | 48.7% | | 主要股东 | CRC Bluesky Limited | | 主要股东持股比例 | 51.91% | 股价表现 24 年稳定收官，25 年改善可期 消费品/食品饮料 面对复杂多变的市场环境、天气、低端市场容量收缩及基数影响，公司 24 年啤 酒销量承压但高端化跑赢行业，白酒整合初见成效，摘要大单品快速增长。25 年 1-2 月公司在高基数下取得良好开局，为全年利润恢复较快增长奠定基础。 ❑ 风险提示：极端天气影响、原材料成本上涨、高端化竞争加剧等。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 20 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Resources Beer is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the beer upgrade continues while the liquor business benefits from synergy. The company has shown resilience in its performance despite a slight decline in revenue and profit [6] - The company is undergoing a structural upgrade in its beer segment, with a focus on high-end products, which is expected to drive profit growth [6] - The liquor business is expected to contribute positively if economic conditions improve, indicating potential for future growth [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 38,932 million, with a slight decline to RMB 38,635 million in 2024, followed by a recovery to RMB 39,286 million in 2025 [5][7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decrease from RMB 5,153 million in 2023 to RMB 4,739 million in 2024, before increasing to RMB 5,279 million in 2025 [5][7] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be RMB 1.59 in 2023, decreasing to RMB 1.46 in 2024, and then increasing to RMB 1.63 in 2025 [5] - The net asset return rate is projected to decline slightly from 17.98% in 2023 to 15.29% in 2024, before stabilizing around 15.95% in 2025 [5] Business Performance Insights - The beer segment reported a revenue of RMB 36,486 million in 2024, with a slight decline in sales volume but an increase in average price per ton [6] - The high-end beer segment (priced above RMB 10) saw a 9% increase in sales volume, with notable growth in brands like Heineken and Snow [6] - The liquor segment achieved a revenue of RMB 2,150 million in 2024, with a 35% increase in sales volume for the flagship product, indicating strong market performance [6]

华润啤酒发布年度业绩 股东应占溢利47.39亿元 同 比减少8.03% 高端啤酒销量已经在行业中排在前列 面对内外部环境多变、消费分化的存缩量波动时代，集团于2024年实现啤酒销量约10,874,000千 升，表现跑赢主要竞争对手。集团高端化发展持续发力，高档及以上啤酒销量较去年同期取得超过9% 增长，其中，"喜力"在去年高基数的情况下仍取得近两成增长，"老雪"、"红爵"销量基本实现翻倍增 长。根据内部估算，集团在行业高端市场的影响力进一步加大，高端啤酒销量已经在行业中排在前列。 2025年首两个月的初步数据显示，集团啤酒销量在去年高基数的情况下达单位数增长，高端化持续 发展，其中"喜力"销量持续两位数快速增长。受惠于营业额增长及降本增效，集团啤酒业务首两个月未 经审核的未计利息及税项前盈利预计增速快于营业额增速。在去年高基数的情况下，2025年初春节带动 首两个月的表现，为全年表现打好基础。在国家支持提振消费的政策、预计经济稳步增长、之后月份销 量基数不高，以及坚定落实三精的成本费用管理情况下，集团对2025年啤酒业务争取营业额增长和利润 恢复较快增长更有信心，整体表现维持审慎乐观的预期。 华润啤酒(002 ...

Financial Performance - The group's consolidated revenue for 2024 was RMB 38,635 million, with a gross margin increase of 1.2 percentage points to 42.6%, the highest in five years [3]. - The beer business generated revenue of RMB 36,486 million, with an average selling price increase of 1.5% and a gross margin rise of 0.9 percentage points to 41.1% [3]. - The white liquor business achieved a revenue increase of 4.0% year-on-year to RMB 2,149 million, with a gross margin up 5.6 percentage points to 68.5% [3]. - The group's net profit attributable to shareholders decreased to RMB 4,739 million from RMB 5,153 million, with basic earnings per share at RMB 1.46 [5]. - The total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 38,635 million, a decrease of 0.76% compared to RMB 38,932 million in 2023 [27]. - Gross profit increased to RMB 16,475 million, up 2.31% from RMB 16,103 million in the previous year [27]. - The net profit for the year was RMB 4,759 million, down 8.71% from RMB 5,214 million in 2023 [27]. - Basic earnings per share decreased to RMB 1.46, compared to RMB 1.59 in the previous year [27]. - The company's profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was RMB 4,739 million, down from RMB 5,153 million in 2023, a decrease of approximately 8.0% [10]. - The interim dividend for 2024 was RMB 0.373 per share, an increase from RMB 0.287 per share in 2023, representing a growth of approximately 30.0% [11]. Cash Flow and Equity - The group's operating cash flow increased by 67.0% year-on-year to RMB 6,928 million, indicating strong cash generation capability [3]. - The group's total equity increased to RMB 35,585 million from RMB 34,174 million, with net cash position maintained [5]. - The group's cash net amount reached RMB 3,860,000,000 as of December 31, 2024 [81]. - The total loans amounted to RMB 1,849,000,000, with RMB 1,168,000,000 due within one year [81]. - The current liabilities were RMB 26,054,000,000, resulting in a current ratio of 0.60 [82]. Sales and Market Performance - Beer sales volume reached approximately 10,874,000 kiloliters, outperforming major competitors, with high-end beer sales growing over 9% year-on-year [3]. - The sales volume of premium and above beer increased by over 9% year-on-year, with the "Heineken®" brand achieving close to 20% growth despite a high base from the previous year [16]. - The overall beer sales volume for 2024 was approximately 10.874 million kiloliters, a decrease of 2.5% year-on-year, while the beer business revenue slightly declined by 1.0% to RMB 36.486 billion [16]. - The online business's overall gross merchandise volume (GMV) increased by over 30% year-on-year, indicating strong performance in e-commerce [76]. Dividends and Shareholder Returns - The board proposed a final dividend of RMB 0.387 per share, up from RMB 0.349 per share in the previous year, with total dividends for the year reaching RMB 0.760 per share [6]. - The total dividends paid for the year amounted to RMB 3,363 million, compared to RMB 1,911 million in 2023, indicating a significant increase [12]. - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of RMB 0.387 per share for the fiscal year 2024, totaling RMB 0.760 per share for the year, compared to RMB 0.936 per share in 2023 [13]. Strategic Initiatives and Future Outlook - The company aims to enhance its high-end product offerings, with sales of the high-end product "Li" increasing by 35% year-on-year [16]. - The company anticipates a cautious optimistic outlook for 2025, aiming for revenue growth and a quick recovery in profits for the beer business [22]. - The company plans to enhance its high-end product offerings and expand its market presence in Southeast Asia and parts of Europe, with double-digit sales growth in key overseas markets [18]. - The company is committed to technology innovation and digital empowerment, focusing on cost leadership and integrated supply chain management [22]. - The company plans to continue its high-end strategy and implement a "lean and precise" approach to adapt to changing consumer demands [77]. Corporate Governance and ESG - The company has received recognition for its environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance, with its rating upgraded to "A" by MSCI, indicating progress towards international standards [15]. - The company aims to enhance its ESG performance by promoting green development and achieving carbon neutrality certifications for more factories [24]. - The company has committed to high standards of corporate governance to enhance shareholder value since November 2003 [91]. - The company has adhered to the corporate governance code and principles applicable as of December 31, 2024, with ten revisions made to its governance manual since 2005 [91]. Operational Efficiency - The company will continue to implement the "Three Precision" management strategy to enhance operational efficiency and profitability [20]. - The group emphasized brand management and launched multiple large-scale events to enhance brand influence [79]. - The group is committed to strengthening technological research and development, establishing a technical innovation center in Guizhou Province [80]. - The company has stopped operations at two breweries and launched two new smart factories, optimizing its production capacity [75].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beer (291 HK) with a target price of HK$28.60, down from HK$31.30, indicating a potential upside of 19% from the current price of HK$24.00 [2][4][10]. Core Views - The report highlights that the trend of premiumization in the beer segment continues, albeit at a slower pace, while the baijiu business faces challenges due to industry oversupply [8][9]. - It anticipates that China Resources Beer may experience its first year-on-year revenue decline since 2020 in 2024, primarily due to weak demand for alcoholic beverages amid macroeconomic pressures [8][9]. - The report projects a slight recovery in beer sales in 2025, with an expected price increase of 2.2% and a volume growth of 0.7%, benefiting from a recovery in on-the-go consumption channels [10][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Adjustments - The target price has been revised down to HK$28.60 from HK$31.30, reflecting adjustments in earnings forecasts for 2024-2026 due to slower-than-expected growth in the baijiu segment [4][10][14]. - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 have been reduced by 1%, 8%, and 9% respectively [4][14]. Revenue and Profit Projections - Revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 38,566 million, a decrease of 1.7% from previous estimates, with a slight increase to RMB 39,742 million in 2025 [11][15]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to grow by 7% in 2024, driven by lower raw material costs and controlled sales and marketing expenses [8][11]. Market Comparison - The report compares China Resources Beer’s valuation metrics with its peers, noting that its target EV/EBITDA multiple remains at 8 times for 2025, which is at the lower end of the range compared to global beer and domestic baijiu companies [16][17].

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley has lowered its profit forecasts for China Resources Beer for 2024 to 2026 by 6% to 9% [1] - The adjustment is primarily based on weak demand, with a forecasted sales decline of 1% for last year and a projected growth of 1% for this year [1] - The target price for China Resources Beer has been reduced from HKD 34 to HKD 30 [1]

Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for CR Beer (291 HK) with a target price of HKD 37.29, implying a potential upside of 45.1% [1][2] Core Views - Short-term pressure on beer consumption environment due to weak performance in the catering channel, which accounts for over 40% of beer sales [1] - CR Beer outperformed the industry with mid-to-high-end beer sales exceeding 50% of total sales for the first time in H1 2024 [1] - High-end products such as Heineken, Lao Xue, and Red Label achieved over 20% YoY growth in sales [1] - Management remains confident in long-term growth through premiumization, product differentiation, and regional expansion [1] Financial Performance - H1 2024 revenue reached RMB 23.74 billion, a slight decline of 0.5% YoY [1] - Beer business revenue declined by 1.4% YoY to RMB 22.57 billion, with volume down 3.4% but average price up 2.0% [1] - Gross margin for beer business improved by 0.6 percentage points to 45.8% due to product mix optimization and lower raw material costs [1] - Liquor business revenue grew 20.6% YoY to RMB 1.18 billion, with gross margin improving by 2.1 percentage points to 67.6% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 1.2% YoY to RMB 4.7 billion [1] Financial Forecasts - Revenue expected to grow from RMB 39.78 billion in 2024E to RMB 42.70 billion in 2026E, with a CAGR of 2.2% [3] - Net profit projected to increase from RMB 5.33 billion in 2024E to RMB 6.56 billion in 2026E, with a CAGR of 7.1% [3] - EPS forecasted to grow from RMB 1.64 in 2024E to RMB 2.02 in 2026E [3] - Gross margin expected to improve from 42.6% in 2024E to 45.4% in 2026E [9] Valuation - Target price of HKD 37.29 based on 19x 2025E P/E, a discount of 1 standard deviation from the 3-year historical average [1] - Current P/E ratio of 14.6x for 2024E, expected to decline to 11.8x by 2026E [3] - Dividend yield forecasted to increase from 3.4% in 2024E to 4.2% in 2026E [3] Industry Context - Beer industry faced significant pressure in 2024, with overall high-endization slowing down [1] - CR Beer's high-end product growth outperformed the industry, with double-digit growth in premium products [1] - Management aims for double-digit volume growth in favorable economic conditions and single-digit growth in normal conditions [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK) with a target price of HK$48.00, down from a previous target of HK$56.00 [5][14]. Core Insights - The company is demonstrating resilience amid industry fluctuations and is steadily advancing its "beer and liquor dual empowerment" strategy. In the first half of 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 23.74 billion and net profit attributable to the parent of RMB 4.70 billion, reflecting a year-on-year change of -0.5% and +1.2% respectively [11][12]. - The beer business generated revenue of RMB 22.57 billion, a decrease of 1.4% year-on-year, with sales volume and average selling price changing by -3.4% and +2.0% respectively, outperforming the industry average [11][12]. - The gross profit margin for the beer business improved by 0.6 percentage points to 45.8%, aided by an enhanced product mix and reduced packaging costs [11][12]. - The baijiu segment saw revenue growth of 20.6% year-on-year, reaching RMB 1.18 billion, with gross profit margin rising by 2.1 percentage points to 67.6% [11][12]. - The company reported a 25.6% year-on-year increase in net cash inflow from operating activities and raised its interim dividend by 30% to RMB 0.373 per share, increasing the half-year dividend payout ratio from 20.1% to 25.7% [11][12]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the next three years are as follows: RMB 39.51 billion in 2024, RMB 40.39 billion in 2025, and RMB 41.12 billion in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 1%, 2%, and 2% respectively [4][10]. - Net profit estimates are projected to be RMB 5.32 billion in 2024, RMB 5.95 billion in 2025, and RMB 6.35 billion in 2026, with growth rates of 3%, 12%, and 7% respectively [4][10]. - The diluted EPS is expected to increase from RMB 1.64 in 2024 to RMB 1.96 in 2026, with a P/E ratio decreasing from 18 in 2024 to 15 in 2026 [4][10]. Market Context - The report highlights that macroeconomic policies are likely to boost domestic demand, with the valuation of the consumer staples sector showing signs of recovery from historical lows [6][13]. - The H-share consumer staples industry is currently at a historical PE percentile of 1% since 2011, indicating potential for valuation improvement [6][13]. - As a leading player in the beer industry and the only company combining beer and baijiu, China Resources Beer is positioned to benefit from sector valuation recovery [6][13].