Core Viewpoint - DBS has raised the earnings forecast for China Resources Beer (00291) by 13% and 2% for the next two years, reflecting one-time gains in the first half and better sales and profit recovery [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecast and Target Price - The core profit forecast for the group has been increased by 2% for this year, with the target price raised from HKD 35.6 to HKD 38, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 2: Profitability and Sales Growth - Continuous efficiency improvements and favorable raw material trends are expected to contribute to a gross margin expansion of approximately 2 percentage points for the year [1] - The core earnings for the first half exceeded expectations due to significant sales growth and effective cost control [1] Group 3: Market Expansion and Consumer Trends - The company is accelerating channel expansion, and household consumption is contributing to rapid growth [1] - Profit recovery from July to August supports low single-digit sales growth and a slight increase in average price for the year [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Resources Beer (00291) reported a core profit increase of 10% year-on-year, slightly exceeding expectations [1] Financial Performance - The company declared an interim dividend of 0.373 RMB per share, maintaining a payout ratio of 26% [1] - The target price for the group was raised from 33.6 HKD to 35.1 HKD, reflecting a 13% and 9% upward revision in earnings forecasts for the current and next year, respectively [1] Business Outlook - The outlook for the company's liquor business sales growth remains cautious, with expected ongoing policy impacts [1] - Due to stable product prices and regulated sales, general, and administrative expenses, the business losses in the second half of the year are anticipated to narrow [1]

Group 1: Hang Seng Index (HSI) - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,104 points, slightly below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands (25,113), indicating a neutral trading signal with no clear direction [1] - Support levels are identified at 24,717 points and 24,200 points, while resistance levels are at 25,400 points and 25,900 points [1] - Investors are advised to be cautious and consider waiting for clearer signals before making directional trades [1] Group 2: Baidu Group (09888.HK) - Baidu's stock price closed at 85 HKD, having fallen below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands and approaching a low of 83.9 HKD [6] - The analysis indicates a "sell" signal, with long-term prospects remaining positive; support levels are at 81.8 HKD and 78.5 HKD [6] Group 3: China Mobile (00941.HK) - China Mobile's stock reached a high of 89.7 HKD, surpassing the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands, and closed at 89.4 HKD [13] - The trading signal is classified as "strong buy," with resistance levels at 90.7 HKD and 96.1 HKD for investors to consider [13] Group 4: Great Wall Motors (02333.HK) - Great Wall Motors' stock price has shown a positive trend, reaching a high of 18.3 HKD and closing above the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands [18] - The signal is a "buy," with the first resistance level at 19.2 HKD and a second resistance level at 21.4 HKD [18] Group 5: China Resources Beer (00291.HK) - The stock price has shown a rapid upward movement, with a high of 28.98 HKD and a closing price of 28.34 HKD [24] - The trading signal is a "buy," with resistance levels at 29.2 HKD and 30.7 HKD [24] Group 6: NIO Inc. (09866.HK) - NIO's stock price closed at 41.18 HKD after reaching a high of 41.38 HKD, indicating a strong upward trend [26] - The analysis suggests a "buy" signal, with resistance levels at 43.2 HKD and 45.3 HKD [26]

Core Viewpoint - The beer market is not shrinking significantly despite the reduction in bottle sizes and the closure of breweries, as evidenced by stable sales figures and the performance of major players like China Resources Beer [1][3] Group 1: Market Trends - The capacity of beer bottles has decreased from 500ml to smaller sizes like 330ml and 250ml, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [1] - National Bureau of Statistics data shows that major beer producers sold 19.04 million kiloliters of beer in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year decline of only 0.3% [1] - Beer consumption has remained stable, with annual sales fluctuations of less than 1% in recent years [1] Group 2: Company Performance - China Resources Beer reported a revenue of 23.9 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a 0.8% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.78 billion yuan, up 23% [3] - The company achieved a 2% increase in sales volume, reaching approximately 6.5 million kiloliters, despite a slight industry-wide decline [3] - For the first time, China Resources Beer surpassed Budweiser APAC in revenue and profit in the Asia-Pacific market [3][4] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Budweiser APAC experienced a significant decline in revenue and profit, with a nearly 10% drop in sales in China, which is much worse than the industry average [4] - Other beer companies like Yanjing Beer and Chongqing Beer showed varying performance, with Yanjing's net profit increasing by 45% [4] Group 4: Strategic Shifts - The beer industry is shifting from a focus on large single products to catering to niche, diverse, and premium consumer demands [2][3] - China Resources Beer is leveraging data to better understand consumer preferences, allowing for quicker product development and adaptation [9] - The rise of regional beer brands is linked to cultural confidence and consumer loyalty, with some brands experiencing significant sales growth [9][10] Group 5: Retail Dynamics - The proportion of beer sales through retail channels has increased, with retail now accounting for 60% of sales, while the share from dining channels has decreased [10][12] - The company is capitalizing on the opportunities presented by new retail formats, contrasting with Budweiser APAC's struggles in the dining sector [10][12]

Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 23.942 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 0.8% [1] - The EBITDA, excluding special items, was 8.336 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10.7% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 5.789 billion yuan, marking a 23.0% increase year-on-year [1] Beer Business Performance - The beer segment generated a revenue of 23.161 billion yuan in H1 2025, up 2.6% year-on-year, with sales volume increasing by 2.2% to 6.487 million kiloliters [2] - The average selling price rose by 0.4% to 3,570 yuan per kiloliter [2] - The company successfully launched various specialty products and expanded online sales channels, achieving nearly 40% and 50% growth in online business and instant retail GMV, respectively [2] - The cost per ton of beer decreased by 4.1% to 1,847 yuan per kiloliter, contributing to a 2.5 percentage point increase in beer gross margin to 48.3% [2] - The EBITDA for the beer segment, excluding special items, grew by 13.6% to 8.128 billion yuan, with the EBITDA margin improving by 3.4 percentage points to 35.1% [2] Baijiu Business Performance - The baijiu segment reported a revenue of 0.781 billion yuan in H1 2025, down 33.7% year-on-year, with major products contributing nearly 80% of the revenue [3] - The gross margin for baijiu decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 67.3%, and the EBITDA, excluding special items, fell by 47.2% to 0.218 billion yuan [3] - The overall gross margin for the company improved by 2.0 percentage points to 48.9% due to the implementation of cost-reduction strategies [3] Profit Forecast - The company anticipates revenue of 41.065 billion yuan, 41.955 billion yuan, and 42.791 billion yuan for 2025-2027, respectively, with net profits projected at 6.077 billion yuan, 5.874 billion yuan, and 6.278 billion yuan [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.87 yuan, 1.81 yuan, and 1.94 yuan for the same period [4] - After excluding one-time gains, the adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 are forecasted to be 5.456 billion yuan, 5.874 billion yuan, and 6.278 billion yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 15.3, 14.3, and 13.3 [4]

展望看，公司下半年的啤酒业务表现有望维持较稳健势头，我们认为全年公司销量和吨价均保持低增势 头；结合全年吨成本中单位数的下降，带动毛利率提升1ppt 以上，三精导向下销售费用率有望维持下 降态势，我们预计全年利润率维持双位数增长。而白酒业务方面，行业有望在下半年逐步开始释放累计 的报表压力，逐步迈入出清收敛的阶段，公司白酒业务具备与行业同步进行调整的可能性，我们认为此 番调整给后续白酒业务良性发展，成为公司第二成长曲线奠定基础。 公司公布1H25 业绩：1H25 收入239.4 亿元，同比+0.8%，核心EBIT 71.1亿元，同比+11.3%；其中啤酒 收入231.6 亿元，同比+2.6%，销量同比+2.2%，ASP同比+0.4%，啤酒核心EBIT 72.8 亿元，同比 +14.0%；白酒收入7.81 亿元，同比-33.9%，EBITDA 2.2 亿元，同比-47.2%。啤酒业务略超我们预期， 主因毛利率提升及销售费用收缩综合带来利润表现超预期。 发展趋势 啤酒业务1H25 表现优于行业整体，高端化趋势延续。1H25 销量同比+2.2%，吨价同比+0.4%，受益于 原料成本下降，吨成本同比-4.2%，毛利率 ...

机构：华创证券 研究员：欧阳予/刘旭德/严晓思/董广阳 渠道端加码非现饮渠道，线上及即时零售GMV 同比增速分别40%、50%。白酒板块，摘要价格随行就 市，改善渠道利润，同时强化双品牌打造，回沙品牌推出百元左右盒装酱酒，布局日常聚饮，加速啤白 融合。展望来看，公司聚焦良性经营，高端化持续前行，费效端积极落实"三精主义"，释放利润空间。 投资建议：务实经营，稳健前行，重申"强推"评级。公司25 年轻装上阵，6 月场景虽有受损，但高端化 仍然稳健前行，同时推进"三精主义"持续优化管理、运营效率，加速啤白双赋能战略，白酒业务有望持 续改善，打开利润空间。我们调整25-27 年盈利预测至58.7/64.0/67.9 亿元（此前为52.3/57.4/61.3 亿 元），维持目标价40 港元，对应25E PE 约20X，维持"强推"评级。 事项： 风险提示：高端竞争加剧，白酒业务拓展不及预期，成本大幅波动。 公司发布2025 年中报，2025H1 年实现营业收入239.4 亿元，同增0.8%；实现EBIT76.9 亿元，同增 20.8%；实现归母净利润57.9 亿元，同增23.0%。此外，公司派发中期股息0.464 元 ...

机构：国信证券 研究员：张向伟/杨苑 华润啤酒公布2025 年半年度业绩：1H25 营业额239.4 亿元，同比+0.8%；股东应占溢利57.9 亿元，同比 +22.8%；核心EBIT（剔除搬迁补偿收益、关厂相关资产减值及员工补偿安置费用）71.1 亿元，同比 +11.3%。 啤酒业务营业收入：量价齐升，产品结构继续优化。1H25 营业额同比+2.5%，其中销量同比+2.2%，吨 价同比+0.4%。销量增长主要受益于公司积极拥抱非现饮及新零售渠道、春节期间消费需求较好、去年 末库存消化至低位。吨价维持正增长，主要系产品结构延续提升，次高档及以上产品销量增长中至高单 位数、占比继续提升，其中喜力在去年高基数情况下销量增速仍超20%，老雪销量同比增长超70%，红 爵销量同比翻倍。 白酒业务：收入下滑，利润压力加剧。1H25 营业额7.8 亿元，同比-33.7%，主要受行业深度调整影响， 尤其是Q2 白酒消费场景受到相关政策影响。毛利率同比持平，但核心EBITDA/EBIT 同比-7.2/-23.5pt， 核心EBITDA/EBIT同比-47.2%/转亏，预计主要系收入规模下降导致固定费用、折旧摊销摊薄能力显著 减 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported better-than-expected performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue and net profit growth driven by beer business upgrades and effective cost control strategies [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 23.94 billion and a net profit of 5.79 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.8% and 23.0% respectively [1] - The overall gross margin and adjusted EBITDA margin improved by 2.0 and 3.1 percentage points to 48.9% and 34.8% [1] - The company slightly adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027 and raised the target price to 35.90 HKD based on a 2026 price-to-earnings ratio of 18 times [1] Group 2: Beer Business Development - The beer business revenue grew by 2.6% year-on-year to 23.16 billion, primarily driven by sales volume, with sales volume and average price increasing by 2.2% and 0.4% respectively [1] - Despite overall sales growth being sluggish, the high-end product segment continued to show growth, with Heineken brand sales increasing by over 20% [2] - The beer business's gross margin and adjusted EBITDA margin improved by 2.5 and 3.4 percentage points to 48.3% and 35.1%, respectively, due to cost savings and effective expense management [2] Group 3: White Spirit Business - The white spirit business experienced a significant decline in revenue, down 33.7% year-on-year to 780 million, reflecting ongoing challenges in the business banquet scene [2] - The gross margin remained stable at around 65%, but the adjusted EBITDA margin decreased by 7.2 percentage points to 27.9% [2] - The company plans to focus on developing mass-market and light-bottle products in the second half of the year to reshape the pricing structure and expand the coverage of mid-to-low-end white spirit products through beer channels [2] Group 4: Updated Profit Forecasts - The company slightly lowered its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 by 1-5%, while raising the EBITDA margin and net profit margin forecasts by 0.9-1.8 and 0-1.5 percentage points, respectively [2]

Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 23.942 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 0.8% [1] - EBIT reached 7.691 billion yuan, up 20.8% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.789 billion yuan, increasing by 23.0% [1] - The beer business continues to focus on high-end strategies, with a revenue of 23.161 billion yuan, a 2.6% increase year-on-year, and beer sales volume rising by 2.2% to 6.487 million tons [1] Beer Business Performance - The average selling price of beer increased by 0.4% to 3,570 yuan per ton, driven by the growth of high-end products [1] - The sales volume of premium and above beer products grew by 10%, with notable increases in Heineken (20%), Old Snow (70%), and Red Duke (100%) [1] - Gross margin improved by 2.5 percentage points to 48.3% due to product mix optimization and cost advantages [1] White Wine Business Challenges - The white wine business reported a revenue of 0.781 billion yuan, a decline of 33.7% year-on-year, with high-end products contributing nearly 80% of the revenue [1] - EBITDA for the white wine segment fell by 47.1% to 0.218 billion yuan [1] - The company is implementing a dual empowerment strategy for beer and white wine, focusing on price restructuring and enhanced cost control while promoting mid-range and light bottle products [1] Future Outlook - The company maintains a "buy" rating with a target price of 35.0 HKD per share, reflecting a potential upside of 23.8% based on a projected PE of 18.4 times for 2025 [2] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted, expecting net profits of 5.646 billion, 5.702 billion, and 6.214 billion yuan respectively [2]