执业证书：S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 证券研究报告·海外公司点评·公用事业Ⅱ(HS) 中国燃气（00384.HK） 2025/2026 财年中报点评：业绩承压，自由现 金流持续改善 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万港元） | 81,410 | 79,258 | 76,748 | 77,444 | 78,489 | | 同比(%) | (11.50) | (2.64) | (3.17) | 0.91 | 1.35 | | 归母净利润（百万港元） | 3,185 | 3,252 | 2,976 | 3,182 | 3,446 | | 同比(%) | (25.82) | 2.09 | (8.47) | 6.92 | 8.30 | | EPS-最新摊薄（港元/股） | 0.58 | 0.60 | 0.55 | 0.58 | 0.63 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of colder weather and declining inventories on natural gas prices in the U.S., which increased by 10.5% week-on-week, while European gas prices decreased by 5.6% due to inventory withdrawals [1][2]. Price Tracking - As of November 28, 2025, the week-on-week price changes for various natural gas benchmarks are as follows: U.S. HH +10.5%, European TTF -5.6%, East Asia JKM -3.3%, China LNG ex-factory -0.9%, and China LNG CIF -4.5%, with prices at 1.2, 2.4, 2.8, 2.9, and 2.8 CNY per cubic meter respectively [1]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The U.S. natural gas market saw a week-on-week inventory decrease of 110 billion cubic feet, bringing total storage to 39,350 billion cubic feet, a year-on-year decline of 0.8% [2]. - In Europe, natural gas consumption from January to August 2025 was 2,884 billion cubic meters, up 4.6% year-on-year. The supply increased by 25.1% week-on-week to 102,598 GWh, with significant contributions from inventory consumption and LNG terminals [2]. - Domestic natural gas prices in China decreased by 0.9% week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase in apparent consumption of 0.7% to 3,541 billion cubic meters [2]. Pricing Progress - As of November 2025, 67% of cities in China have implemented residential pricing adjustments, with an average increase of 0.22 CNY per cubic meter [3]. Important Announcements - China Gas reported total revenue of 31.481 billion CNY for the first half of the fiscal year 2026, a decrease of 1.78% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.218 billion CNY, down 24.22% year-on-year, primarily due to pressure on retail gas and connection services [3]. Investment Recommendations - The outlook for 2025 suggests a relaxed supply environment and cost optimization for gas companies, with a focus on price mechanism adjustments and demand growth. Key recommendations include companies like Xinao Energy, China Resources Gas, and Kunlun Energy, with notable dividend yields [3].

市公司 公用事业 2025 年 12 月 01 日 气量毛差承压 自由现金流再创新高 报告原因: 有业绩公布需要点评 (维持) | 市场数据: | 2025 年 11 月 28 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 8.60 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 9130.18 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 8.85/5.97 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 468.54 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 5.448.15 | | 汇率（港币/人民币） | 0.9100 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势: 37% 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 王璐 A0230516080007 wanglu@swsresearch.com 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 联系人 投资要点: 财务数据及盈利预测 | 2023/24 | | 2024/25 | 2025/26E | 2026/27E | 2027/28E | | --- | ...

Group 1: China Gas Performance - China Gas reported a revenue of HKD 34.481 billion for the six months ending September 30, 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8% [3] - The gross profit was HKD 5.506 billion, down 6.0% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 24.2% to HKD 1.334 billion [3] - The company experienced a decline in new residential connections, with 676,300 new users added, a decrease of approximately 25.2% compared to the previous year [4] Group 2: Industry Challenges - The domestic natural gas consumption in China saw a slight decline of 0.2% year-on-year, totaling 317.75 billion cubic meters from January to September [3] - The ongoing challenges in the real estate market have led to a decrease in new user development for the gas industry [4] - China Gas is actively participating in the national initiative for urban gas pipeline upgrades and is pushing for reforms in natural gas pricing mechanisms [3] Group 3: China Water Performance - China Water reported a revenue of HKD 5.183 billion for the six months ending September 30, 2025, down 12.9% from HKD 5.953 billion in the same period last year [6] - The profit attributable to shareholders decreased to HKD 571 million, down from HKD 756 million year-on-year [6] - The company is focusing on optimizing its development strategy, prioritizing projects with the best returns, which has led to a slowdown in construction activities and related revenues [9] Group 4: Water Industry Insights - China Water's revenue from urban water supply and pipeline drinking water supply segments decreased significantly, with urban water supply revenue falling by 13.1% to HKD 3.271 billion [9] - The environmental business saw an increase in revenue by 8.7%, primarily due to growth in wastewater treatment services [9] - Long-term operational models like TOO (Transfer-Own-Operate) are expected to provide higher intrinsic value compared to other models, benefiting the company's water supply business [10]

Group 1: China Gas Performance - China Gas reported a revenue of HKD 34.481 billion for the six months ending September 30, 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8% [3] - The company's gross profit was HKD 5.506 billion, down 6.0% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 1.334 billion, reflecting a decline of 24.2% [3] - The company connected 676,300 new residential users during the first half of the fiscal year, a decrease of approximately 25.2% compared to the same period last year [4] Group 2: Industry Challenges - The domestic natural gas consumption in China saw a slight decline of 0.2% year-on-year, totaling 317.75 billion cubic meters from January to September [3] - The ongoing downturn in the real estate market has led to a continuous decline in new housing starts and completions, impacting the development of new users in the gas industry [4] - China Gas is actively participating in the national initiative for urban gas pipeline upgrades and is pushing for reforms in the natural gas pricing mechanism to alleviate cost pressures [3] Group 3: China Water Performance - China Water reported a revenue of HKD 5.183 billion for the six months ending September 30, 2025, down 12.9% from HKD 5.953 billion in the same period last year [5] - The profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 571 million, a decrease from HKD 756 million year-on-year [5] - The company's revenue from urban water supply and pipeline drinking water supply segments decreased significantly, with urban water supply revenue falling by 13.1% to HKD 3.271 billion [7] Group 4: Strategic Adjustments - China Water is optimizing its development strategy to focus on core business project management, leading to a slowdown in construction activities and related revenue [7] - The environmental protection segment saw an increase in revenue by 8.7% year-on-year, primarily due to increased operational services from wastewater treatment projects [7] - The company is expected to benefit from the current pricing adjustment cycle, which may lead to a recovery in profitability [8]

Core Viewpoint - Recent performance reports from certain Hong Kong utility companies, particularly China Gas, have led to significant declines in their stock prices due to decreased revenue and profit, raising market concerns about their profitability [1][4]. Group 1: China Gas Performance - For the six months ending September 30, 2025, China Gas reported revenue of HKD 34.481 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, and a net profit of HKD 1.334 billion, down 24.2% [4]. - The company has established a comprehensive energy supply structure, primarily focusing on pipeline natural gas, liquefied petroleum gas, and smart energy services [4]. - The domestic natural gas consumption faced challenges, with a slight decline of 0.2% year-on-year to 317.75 billion cubic meters from January to September [4]. - China Gas connected 676,300 new residential users during the first half of the fiscal year, a decrease of approximately 25.2% compared to the previous year [5]. Group 2: China Water Performance - China Water reported revenue of HKD 5.183 billion for the six months ending September 30, 2025, down 12.9% from HKD 5.953 billion in the same period last year [7][10]. - The company's profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 571 million, a decrease from HKD 756 million year-on-year [7]. - The decline in revenue was attributed to a strategic shift towards optimizing project management and prioritizing high-return projects, leading to a slowdown in construction activities [10]. - The urban water supply segment generated revenue of HKD 3.271 billion, down 13.1% year-on-year, while the pipeline drinking water supply segment saw a revenue drop of 28.3% [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Gas (00384) [2][6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of HKD 34.481 billion for the first half of FY2025/26, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 1.334 billion, down 24.2%, which was below expectations due to a reduction in new user connections and a slowdown in industrial gas demand [6]. - Free cash flow reached a record high of HKD 2.6 billion, an increase of 17.2% year-on-year, indicating strong cash generation capabilities [6]. - The retail gas sales volume increased by 1.7% year-on-year to 17.41 billion cubic meters, although town gas sales volume decreased by 1.5% due to declining industrial gas demand [6]. - The company aims to maintain a gross margin target of HKD 0.55 per cubic meter for the full fiscal year, with potential for a slight increase compared to the previous fiscal year [6]. - The connection business continues to face pressure, with new residential user connections down 25.2% year-on-year, indicating a declining contribution to overall profits [6]. - Value-added and integrated energy businesses showed steady growth, contributing positively to the company's performance, with significant increases in commercial user-side energy storage and electricity sales [6]. - The company is actively optimizing its debt structure, resulting in a decrease in financing costs to 3.39% for the first half of FY2025/26, down 0.45 percentage points from the previous fiscal year [6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the upcoming fiscal years are as follows: - FY2023/24: HKD 81.41 billion - FY2024/25: HKD 79.26 billion - FY2025/26: HKD 76.37 billion - FY2026/27: HKD 72.40 billion - FY2027/28: HKD 72.60 billion [5][7]. - Net profit forecasts are: - FY2023/24: HKD 3.185 billion - FY2024/25: HKD 3.252 billion - FY2025/26: HKD 3.264 billion - FY2026/27: HKD 3.770 billion - FY2027/28: HKD 4.192 billion [5][7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates are: - FY2023/24: HKD 0.59 - FY2024/25: HKD 0.60 - FY2025/26: HKD 0.60 - FY2026/27: HKD 0.69 - FY2027/28: HKD 0.77 [5][7].

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between China Gas Holdings Limited and Henan Jinli Zinc Co., Ltd. on a 60MW/120MWh commercial energy storage project represents a significant advancement in the green transformation of the non-ferrous metal smelting industry, addressing high energy consumption and enabling low-carbon production [1][2]. Group 1: Project Overview - The energy storage project is one of the largest user-side applications in the non-ferrous metal smelting sector, aimed at creating an efficient and low-carbon energy system for Henan Jinli Zinc's lead-zinc smelting operations [1]. - The total investment for Henan Jinli Zinc's lead-zinc smelting project is 3 billion yuan, with an expected annual output value of 5 billion yuan upon completion [1]. Group 2: Technical Specifications - The project includes 24 DC cabins and 12 power conversion systems, utilizing a fully liquid-cooled lithium iron phosphate system with a charge-discharge efficiency exceeding 87% [2]. - The liquid cooling temperature control technology maintains battery temperature within ±3°C, ensuring stable output even under high-temperature smelting conditions, and features a "black start" capability to provide emergency power during grid failures [2]. Group 3: Economic and Environmental Impact - Once operational, the energy storage project will significantly reduce electricity costs for smelting production through peak shaving and valley filling, while optimizing power resource utilization and reducing carbon emissions from fossil fuel consumption [2]. - The project is positioned as a benchmark for energy storage applications in the non-ferrous metal smelting industry, with China Gas aiming to continue focusing on energy transition needs in high-energy-consuming sectors through technological innovation and service upgrades [2].

有色金属冶炼属于高耗能产业，且生产过程对电力供应的稳定性要求极高；随着企业二期项目的建成试车，传统用能模式已难以匹配产能扩张后 的能源需求。凭借在综合能源服务领域的技术积淀与大型项目经验，中国燃气为河南金利金锌量身打造了超大规模储能解决方案。 （原标题：中国燃气携手河南金利金锌? 打造重工业定制化储能解决方案） 在有色金属冶炼行业绿色转型的关键阶段，储能技术成为企业破解高耗能痛点、实现低碳生产的关键助力。据记者获悉，中国燃气控股有限公司 与河南金利金锌有限公司合作60MW/120MWh工商业储能项目正在加紧建设中，该项目作为有色金属冶炼领域规模较大的用户侧储能应用案例， 将为河南金利金锌的铅锌冶炼生产构建高效、低碳的能源体系，也标志着中国燃气在重工业储能服务领域实现重大突破。 中国燃气董事会主席刘明辉表示，河南金利金锌项目是公司在重工业领域储能服务的重要布局，未来将持续聚焦高耗能行业的能源转型需求，通 过技术创新与服务升级，为更多重工业企业提供定制化储能解决方案，推动有色金属冶炼行业的绿色升级。 资料显示，河南金利金锌是河南金利金铅集团旗下子公司，承担着国家重点研发计划"固废资源化"专项实验生产线示范项目的实 ...

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between China Gas Holdings and Henan Jinli Zinc Co., Ltd. on a 60MW/120MWh commercial energy storage project marks a significant advancement in the green transformation of the non-ferrous metal smelting industry, aiming to establish an efficient and low-carbon energy system for lead-zinc smelting production [1][2]. Group 1: Project Details - The energy storage project is one of the largest user-side applications in the non-ferrous metal smelting sector, highlighting China Gas's major breakthrough in heavy industry energy storage services [1]. - The project includes 24 DC cabins and 12 power conversion systems, utilizing a fully liquid-cooled lithium iron phosphate system with a charge-discharge efficiency exceeding 87% [2]. - The liquid cooling temperature control technology maintains battery temperature within ±3°C, ensuring stable output even under high-temperature smelting conditions [2]. Group 2: Benefits and Impact - The energy storage project will significantly reduce electricity costs for Henan Jinli Zinc by enabling peak shaving and valley filling, optimizing electricity resource utilization [2]. - The project’s load regulation capability will help decrease carbon emissions from fossil fuel consumption, positioning the company as a benchmark for green production in the lead-zinc smelting industry [2]. - The total investment for the lead-zinc smelting project is 3 billion yuan, with an expected annual output value of 5 billion yuan upon completion, making it a key construction project in Henan Province [1].