Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX) with a target price of HKD 543, citing liquidity expectations from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, continuous inflow of southbound funds, and valuation advantages as key factors supporting the high activity level in the Hong Kong stock market in Q4 [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The Hong Kong stock market has shown a recovery in valuation since April, driven by high average daily trading volume and sustained buying from southbound funds [1] - As of October 10, 2025, HKEX's PE (TTM) stands at 36.49x, positioned at the 72.15%, 71.85%, and 47.43% percentiles over the past 1, 3, and 5 years respectively [1] - The company is expected to achieve high year-on-year growth in Q3 earnings, with projected revenues of HKD 79.11 billion (up 47.26%) and net profit of HKD 48.24 billion (up 53.38%) [2] Group 2: Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be HKD 286.25 billion, HKD 303.21 billion, and HKD 306.75 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.94%, 5.93%, and 1.17% [2] - Net profit forecasts for the same years are HKD 179.02 billion, HKD 194.44 billion, and HKD 198.57 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 40.88%, 8.62%, and 2.13% [2] Group 3: Supporting Factors - The Federal Reserve's shift in monetary policy, including interest rate cuts, is expected to enhance liquidity in emerging markets, providing support for the Hong Kong stock market [2] - Southbound funds have seen a net inflow exceeding HKD 1 trillion since the beginning of 2025, driven by the low valuation of Hong Kong stocks and liquidity spillover from the A-share market [3] - The valuation of the Hang Seng Index remains attractive, with a PE-TTM of approximately 11.95x, which is at the 64% percentile over the past 20 years, highlighting the "valuation pit" effect of Hong Kong stocks compared to the CSI 300's 14.24x [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) has established a new subsidiary, Commodity Pricing and Analysis Limited (CPAL), in Dubai to enhance its commodity market pricing management services and promote sustainable metal pricing initiatives [1][2] Group 1: Company Developments - CPAL will focus on providing independent pricing and market analysis for the metals market, including the development of sustainable metal premium initiatives announced by the London Metal Exchange (LME) [1] - The establishment of CPAL is seen as a significant milestone for HKEX in expanding its global business, particularly in the rapidly growing commodity markets of China and the Middle East [2] Group 2: Market Context - Dubai has emerged as a major global commodity trading hub, ranking second in the global commodity trade index, just behind the United States [1] - The latest Global Financial Centres Index ranks Dubai as the top financial center in the Middle East and Africa, and 11th globally [1]

Group 1 - Hong Kong Stock Exchange has announced the establishment of a new subsidiary in Dubai, UAE, named Commodity Pricing and Analysis Limited (CPAL) [1] - CPAL will primarily operate pricing management services for the commodities market and provide independent quotes and market analysis for the metals market [1] - The subsidiary will also support the development of the sustainable metal premium business announced by the London Metal Exchange (LME) in April of this year [1]

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong Stock Exchange has established a new subsidiary, Commodity Pricing and Analysis Limited (CPAL), in Dubai, UAE to enhance its services in the commodity pricing management sector [1] Group 1: Company Developments - CPAL will primarily operate in the commodity market, focusing on pricing management services [1] - The subsidiary will provide independent pricing and market analysis for the metals market [1] - CPAL aims to support the development of the sustainable metal premium business announced by the London Metal Exchange (LME) in April of this year [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup's report indicates that Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) is expected to announce its Q3 2025 results on November 5, forecasting a net profit of HKD 4.8 billion, representing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8% and a year-on-year increase of 52% driven by strong performance in the Hong Kong market and northbound trading volumes [1] Financial Performance - Total revenue is projected to increase by 6% quarter-on-quarter and 43% year-on-year to HKD 7.7 billion, benefiting from growth in trading and clearing fees [1] - Investment income is expected to decline by 37% quarter-on-quarter due to high base effects, a reduction in Hong Kong margin trading scale, and a decrease in investment yield [1] Market Activity - The number of active IPO applications has risen from 207 in June to 297 in September, indicating a robust IPO pipeline [1] Earnings Forecast - Based on revised daily average transaction value forecasts for the Hong Kong market of HKD 250 billion, HKD 245 billion, and HKD 264 billion for 2025 to 2027, Citigroup has raised its earnings per share forecasts for HKEX by 2% to 5% for the same period [1] - The target price for HKEX has been increased from HKD 500 to HKD 510, reflecting strong trading activity and a solid IPO pipeline [1]

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) experienced a significant drop of over 4% in its stock price, attributed to increased market volatility caused by a "grey rhino" event, with expectations for its upcoming Q3 earnings report [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - HKEX's stock fell by 4.68%, trading at 423.8 HKD with a transaction volume of 36.23 billion HKD [1] - Huatai Securities reported that the "grey rhino" event has heightened market volatility, indicating that short-term capital and sentiment still have room for release, suggesting a phased approach to "TACO" trading [1] - Galaxy Securities noted that escalating US-China trade tensions have led to a decline in investor risk appetite, resulting in a valuation correction for Hong Kong stocks [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - UBS forecasts that HKEX will report a 43% year-on-year increase in quarterly revenue and a 53% rise in net profit, reaching 7.7 billion HKD and 4.8 billion HKD respectively, setting new records [1] - UBS's projections exceed market expectations by 8% and 11%, respectively, and have adjusted the average daily transaction volume forecasts for 2025 to 2027 upwards by 9% to 16% [1] - The target price for HKEX has been set at 485 HKD, with a "neutral" rating, reflecting adjustments in earnings per share forecasts upwards by 7% to 12% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) shares fell over 4%, currently trading at 423.8 HKD with a transaction volume of 3.623 billion HKD, reflecting increased market volatility due to "gray rhino" events and escalating US-China trade tensions [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Huatai Securities reported that market volatility has increased due to "gray rhino" events, indicating that short-term funds and sentiment still have room for release, suggesting a phased approach to "TACO" trading [1] - Galaxy Securities noted that the escalation of US-China trade tensions has led to a decrease in investor risk appetite, resulting in a valuation correction for Hong Kong stocks. However, domestic growth stabilization policies and medium to long-term measures to support the stock market are expected to gradually stabilize investor sentiment [1] - Overall, Hong Kong stock valuations are currently at a historically high level, with expectations of wide fluctuations in the market in the future [1] Group 2: Earnings Forecast - UBS forecasts that HKEX will announce its third-quarter results next month, predicting a year-on-year revenue and net profit growth of 43% and 53%, respectively, reaching 7.7 billion HKD and 4.8 billion HKD, setting new records [1] - UBS's forecasts are 8% and 11% higher than the general market expectations [1] - Due to market sentiment and increased participation from southbound funds, UBS has raised its average daily transaction volume forecasts for 2025 to 2027 by 9% to 16%, and adjusted its earnings per share forecast for HKEX upward by 7% to 12%, maintaining a target price of 485 HKD with a "neutral" rating [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [9] Core Insights - The upcoming Q3 reports are expected to show continued high growth in brokerage performance, enhancing the sector's allocation value. The insurance sector reflects a trend of deposit migration, increased equity allocation, and improved new policy costs, leading to a higher certainty of long-term ROE improvement and accelerated valuation recovery. Overall, the cost-effectiveness of allocations is gradually increasing [2][6] - Recommendations include companies with stable profit growth and dividend rates such as Jiangsu Jinzu, China Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance, as well as firms with significant advantages in business models and market positions [6] - The report recommends specific stocks including Xinhua Insurance, China Life, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, CITIC Securities, Dongfang Wealth, Tonghuashun, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings based on performance elasticity and valuation levels [2][6] Market Performance - The non-bank financial index increased by 0.5% last week, with a relative excess return of +1.0% compared to the CSI 300, ranking in the middle of the industry [7] - Year-to-date, the non-bank financial index has risen by 7.4%, but with a relative excess return of -9.9% compared to the CSI 300, indicating a lower ranking [7] - The average daily trading volume in the market has increased to 26,029.82 billion yuan, up 18.98% week-on-week, with a daily turnover rate of 2.71%, up 42.99 basis points [7] Key Industry News & Company Announcements - The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a notice on strengthening the regulation of non-auto insurance business [8] - China Pacific Insurance's Chief Actuary Zhang Yuanhan has resigned [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-bank financial sector, indicating an "Overweight" rating for the industry, suggesting it will outperform the overall market [4][55]. Core Insights - The report highlights strong growth in the brokerage sector, with a significant increase in new A-share accounts and trading volumes, indicating a robust market environment. The net profit for the brokerage sector is expected to show high year-on-year growth for the first nine months of 2025 [4]. - The insurance sector is undergoing regulatory changes aimed at improving profitability, particularly in non-auto insurance, which is expected to benefit leading companies in the industry [4]. - The report identifies three main investment themes in the brokerage sector: 1) Stronger institutions benefiting from improved competition, 2) Brokerages with high earnings elasticity, and 3) Companies with strong international business capabilities [4]. Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.47% during the period from September 29 to October 10, 2025, while the non-bank index increased by 3.18%. The brokerage sector saw a rise of 4.42%, while the insurance sector increased by 0.89% [7]. - The average daily trading volume for the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges reached 26,034.09 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 56.08% [15][31]. Non-Bank Industry Data - As of October 10, 2025, the financing balance in the margin trading market was 24,455.47 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 31.2% [15]. - The report notes that the average daily trading volume for the first nine months of 2025 was 26,034.09 billion yuan, indicating a vibrant trading environment [31]. Regulatory Developments - The Financial Regulatory Bureau has implemented a new framework for non-auto insurance, focusing on improving underwriting profitability and establishing stricter fee management and compliance measures [4][17]. - The report mentions the central bank's liquidity measures, including significant net injections through various monetary policy tools, which aim to maintain market liquidity [16][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the non-bank financial sector [1] Core Views - The report highlights a continuation of strong growth in the brokerage sector, with a significant increase in net profits expected for the first nine months of 2025. Key metrics include a 61% year-on-year increase in new A-share accounts and a 203% increase in average daily stock trading volume in September 2025 [2][5] - The brokerage sector is currently undervalued, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.48, placing it in the 47.8th percentile over the past decade [2] - The report notes a favorable market environment supporting continued high growth in brokerage performance, with specific recommendations for leading firms and those with strong international business capabilities [2][7] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.47% during the period from September 29 to October 10, 2025, while the non-bank index increased by 3.18%. The brokerage, insurance, and diversified financial sectors reported gains of 4.42%, 0.89%, and 0.52%, respectively [5][6] Non-Bank Sector Insights - The report indicates that the insurance sector is benefiting from the implementation of a "de-involution" policy framework for non-auto insurance, which is expected to improve underwriting profitability for leading firms [2][16] - Specific investment recommendations include firms that are expected to benefit from improved competitive dynamics and those with strong earnings elasticity [2][7] Key Data Tracking - As of October 10, 2025, the average daily trading volume in the stock market was 26,034.09 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.99% increase from the previous period [14][32] - The report also tracks significant metrics such as the balance of margin financing and securities lending, which stood at 24,455.47 billion yuan as of October 9, 2025, marking a 31.2% increase from the end of 2024 [14][39]