方正证券指出，当前时点，港股上涨行情仍未结束，建议继续关注恒生科技为代表的低估值品种补涨机 会。政策利好不断释放，A股、港股市场信心显著回升。此外，南下资金仍在持续加速流入港股市场， 叠加美联储降息周期开启，港股流动性环境有望进一步受益。历史经验也显示，港股市场一般10月份日 历效应显著，港股红十月行情可期。 融智投资基金经理兼高级研究员包金刚分析，阿里巴巴近期大涨背后有四大核心原因： （声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。） 阿里巴巴-W逆势上涨，股价创近四年来新高，收盘涨1.09%；截止10月3日，8月底至今已涨近60%。 阿里巴巴-W 成为南向资金最受青睐的标的。Wind数据显示，截至9月30日，其已连续26个交易日获得 净买入，累计净买入金额约757.09亿港元，是第二名腾讯控股73.73亿港元的10倍。 不仅是南向资金，2024年底以来，投资阿里巴巴的主要是国际知名机构投资者、主权基金及科技领域对 冲基金。此外，知名投资人段永平等也参与增持。 据新浪财经报道，摩根大通将阿里巴巴集团在港股的目标价上调近45%，成为华尔街分析师中给出最高 目标价的机构。其预测，到2026年 ...

研究报告·宏观策略研究 海外宏观周报（香港市场观察·第 2 期） 2025 年 9 月 30 日 民银国际研究团队 应习文 电 话：+852 3728 8180 Email：xiwenying@cmbcint.com 相关报告： 金管局跟随降息，港股保持热度 【资金市场】 9 月以来港元隔夜 HIBOR 大幅波动，长端利率稳步上行。9 月 29 日港元隔夜 HIBOR 较 8 月末回落 28bp 至 3.715%，但其余期限利 率均较 8 月末升高。港元与美元负利差继续收窄，1 个月利差由 8 月末的-104bp 收窄至 9 月 29 日的-54bp。港元与人民币利差扩大， 1 个月利差由 8 月末的 155bp 扩大至 9 月 26 日的 189bp。 9 月 18日香港金管局跟随美联储降息，下调基本利率 25bp 至 4.5%。 考虑到美联储仍将保持降息，联系汇率制度下香港利率仍有下降空 间，有利于香港金融市场、楼市及整体经济的复苏。 港元较美元整体升值，银行体系结余保持平稳。9 月港元较美元小 幅升值，对人民币保持相对稳定。至 9 月 29 日银行体系总结余为 542 亿港元，与 8 月末基本相当。当前 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market indices collectively declined on September 26, with technology stocks experiencing significant drops while wind power stocks strengthened [1] - Xiaomi's new smartphone series, the Xiaomi 17, was launched with starting prices of 4499 yuan for the base model and up to 5999 yuan for the ProMax version, featuring the fifth-generation Snapdragon 8 chip [1] - Xiaomi's CEO Lei Jun emphasized the importance of self-developed chips for the company's success, committing to invest at least 50 billion yuan over the next decade [1] Group 2 - Alibaba's stock price has doubled this year, making it the largest weighted stock in the Hang Seng Tech Index at 9.17% [2] - The market outlook is optimistic due to potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and continued inflow of southbound capital, which may lead to a revaluation of the Hang Seng Tech Index [2] - Investors without access to Hong Kong Stock Connect accounts can consider the Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180) to gain exposure to core AI assets in China [2]

Group 1 - Alibaba-W has seen continuous net buying from southbound funds for 22 consecutive days, with a cumulative net buying amount of 604.43 billion HKD and a stock price increase of 37.60% [2] - On September 22, the total trading volume of active stocks through the Hong Kong Stock Connect reached 446.44 billion HKD, with a net buying amount of 77.54 billion HKD [2] - On the same day, Alibaba-W recorded a trading volume of 90.45 billion HKD through the Hong Kong Stock Connect, with a net buying amount of 26.14 billion HKD [2]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower on September 22, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.32% at 26,459.52 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.68% [1] - Technology stocks experienced a broad decline, while innovative drug concepts opened higher, gold stocks rose, and automotive stocks were active [1] - Huatai Securities noted that the recent rally in Hong Kong tech stocks is driven by accelerated domestic AI developments, with the Hang Seng Tech Index and Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Tech Index rising nearly 20% since July [1] Group 2 - Alibaba and Baidu are competing to develop their own chips, igniting a bullish sentiment for AI, with expectations for the Hang Seng Tech Index to break upward again [2] - The outlook for the market is positive due to the potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and continued inflow of southbound capital, suggesting a reconstruction of valuations for the Hang Seng Tech Index [2] - Investors without a Hong Kong Stock Connect account may consider using the Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180) to gain exposure to core Chinese AI assets [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights that on September 15, 2025, the Hong Kong stock market saw a total trading volume of HKD 290.19 billion, with net inflows from southbound funds amounting to HKD 14.473 billion. The three major stock indices in Hong Kong experienced an upward trend, primarily driven by macroeconomic factors, including a meeting between China and the U.S. in Madrid on September 14, 2025, discussing trade issues, which boosted market sentiment [1][4][7] - The report indicates that the market anticipates a 100% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, with a 94.2% chance of a 25 basis point reduction, which is expected to enhance global liquidity and positively impact the Hong Kong stock market [1][4][7] - The report notes that the Hong Kong stock market is expected to reach new highs, driven by three core directions: the potential growth in AI technology and new consumption, continuous inflows of southbound funds, and the impact of U.S. rate cuts on global liquidity [7][8][9] Group 2 - In the Hong Kong stock market, the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.22% to 26,446.56, the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.91% to 6,043.61, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index gained 0.21% to 9,384.76. In contrast, the Hang Seng High Dividend Yield Index saw a decline of 0.16% [4][7] - The report highlights that within the industry sectors, the top performers included Comprehensive (+7.69%), Coal (+2.45%), and Power Equipment & New Energy (+2.24%), while the worst performers were Steel (-1.58%), Light Industry Manufacturing (-1.47%), and Nonferrous Metals (-1.18%) [4][7] - The report also mentions that the automotive sector benefited from a new initiative by the China Automotive Industry Association aimed at standardizing payment practices, which is expected to support small and medium enterprises and stabilize the industry chain [7][8]

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market indices collectively rose during the week from September 8 to September 12, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 3.82% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index saw a rise of 5.31%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increased by 3.4% [1] Capital Inflow - Southbound capital recorded a total net inflow of 60.822 billion HKD, marking the highest weekly net inflow since May, with an increase of 83.97% compared to the previous week [1] - This inflow has continued for 17 consecutive weeks [1] Active Stocks - A total of 29 stocks made it to the list of the top ten most active stocks during the week [1] - Alibaba-W had the highest total trading volume through the Hong Kong Stock Connect, reaching 70.27 billion HKD [1] - Other notable stocks with trading volumes exceeding 20 billion HKD included Meituan-W, SMIC, and Tencent Holdings [1]

Core Viewpoint - A significant influx of capital has been observed in the Hong Kong stock market, with southbound funds achieving a net inflow exceeding 1 trillion HKD this year, marking a more than 100% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [1][5]. Group 1: Capital Inflow Data - As of September 11, southbound funds have recorded a cumulative net inflow of 10,655.49 billion HKD this year, significantly surpassing the total for the previous year [2][5]. - In September alone, southbound funds have seen net inflows for nine consecutive trading days, with the first week of September contributing over 30 billion HKD, an increase of over 10 billion HKD compared to the previous week [2][5]. Group 2: Investment Preferences - The top three stocks attracting the most net inflow from southbound funds this year are Alibaba, Meituan, and China Construction Bank, with Alibaba alone receiving over 110 billion HKD [1][10]. - The sectors receiving the most attention from southbound funds include consumer discretionary retail, banking, non-bank financials, and pharmaceutical biotechnology, with consumer discretionary retail leading at 1,782.85 billion HKD [6][8]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the revaluation of Chinese assets is ongoing, particularly with the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may lead to a bullish trend in the Hong Kong stock market [1][13]. - Investment opportunities are expected to focus on sectors such as technology, pharmaceuticals, consumer goods, and manufacturing, with a particular emphasis on high-dividend stocks benefiting from declining risk-free rates [13].

Group 1 - The General Administration of Customs released the 2024 National Comprehensive Bonded Zone Development Performance Evaluation Ranking, with Qianhai Comprehensive Bonded Zone ranking third nationally, becoming the only bonded zone in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area to enter the top three [1] - In 2024, Qianhai Comprehensive Bonded Zone achieved a total import and export value of 375.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.9%, significantly surpassing the national average growth rate [1] - From January to July this year, the import and export scale reached 221.5 billion yuan, marking a historical high for the same period, with a year-on-year growth of 19.1% [1] Group 2 - Longgang District in Shenzhen has seen a net increase of 84,000 enterprises over the past year, the highest in the city, bringing the total number of enterprises to nearly 570,000 [2] - The district has implemented a "cadre assistance to enterprises" initiative, with 1,872 cadres pairing with 8,404 key enterprises to address challenges and facilitate cooperation [2] - The "Longi Enterprise" platform achieved a 95% resolution rate for requests in the first half of the year, reflecting a proactive service approach [2] Group 3 - Shenzhen's Industrial and Information Technology Bureau is publicly soliciting opinions and suggestions for the "14th Five-Year Plan" in the industrial and information sector, aiming to enhance the planning's scientific, democratic, and transparent nature [3] - The solicitation focuses on key areas such as promoting manufacturing, advancing new industrialization, and fostering the integration of technological and industrial innovation [3] Group 4 - The Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China held a second group leader meeting to promote more proactive macro policies and strengthen coordination between fiscal and monetary policies [4] - The meeting acknowledged the achievements of the joint working group since its establishment and discussed topics such as financial market operations and government bond issuance management [4] Group 5 - FTSE Russell announced changes to the FTSE China A50 Index, including the addition of stocks like NewEase and Zhongji Xuchuang, which are expected to attract more passive fund inflows [6] - The changes will take effect after the market closes on September 19, with a backup list of stocks available for future adjustments [6] Group 6 - Southbound capital has seen a net inflow exceeding 1 trillion Hong Kong dollars this year, marking the highest annual inflow since the launch of the Stock Connect mechanism [7] - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index have both risen over 25% year-to-date, reflecting strong market performance [7] Group 7 - In August, local government bond issuance reached 977.6 billion yuan, with special bonds accounting for nearly half of the total [8] - The cumulative issuance of new special bonds from January to August reached 3.26 trillion yuan, representing 74% of the annual quota [8] Group 8 - The price of gold reached a historical high, with London gold hitting $3,546.9 per ounce, driven by expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [9][10] - The increase in gold prices is attributed to weak economic data from the U.S. and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve [9][11] Group 9 - Apple plans to launch its first foldable iPhone in 2026, with expected shipments of 8 to 10 million units, and a foldable iPad in 2028 [12] - The foldable iPad is anticipated to have a larger display area, with a more premium pricing strategy [12] Group 10 - The expiration of the electric vehicle tax credit in the U.S. on September 30 may lead to a significant drop in sales for manufacturers like Tesla and General Motors, with estimates suggesting a potential 50% decrease in electric vehicle sales [13] - The tax credit, established under the Inflation Reduction Act, incentivized purchases of electric vehicles, and its removal is expected to negatively impact market dynamics [13]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets have entered a rare "alternating leadership" trend since 2024, breaking the traditional correlation model, with a significant influx of southbound capital reshaping the pricing logic of the Hong Kong market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The southbound capital inflow is gradually reconstructing the pricing logic of the Hong Kong market, moving from an "offshore market dominated by foreign capital" to a more "onshore" model led by domestic capital [2][3]. - In the first quarter of 2024, the Hong Kong stock market began a reversal, with the Hang Seng Index outperforming major A-share indices, a trend that continued until the "924" market [2]. - By mid-2025, the Hong Kong market showed a sustained outperformance compared to A-shares, with sectors like the internet, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals experiencing structural rallies [2][3]. Group 2: Capital Structure and Trends - The influx of southbound capital is driven by the improved profitability of the Hong Kong market, with high-quality companies listing in Hong Kong enhancing market vitality [3]. - As of December 31, 2024, the circulation market value of the consumer, technology, and healthcare sectors in the Hong Kong market reached HKD 169,052 million, accounting for 49.0% of the total market value, which increased to 52.3% by August 25, 2025 [3]. - The trend of domestic capital flowing south is expected to continue, supported by a low interest rate environment in mainland China, with long-term funds like insurance capital becoming significant buyers of Hong Kong stocks [3][4]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The current market environment is characterized by multiple positive factors, suggesting a potential new upward trend in the Hong Kong stock market in the fourth quarter of 2025 [9]. - Key investment themes include technology, consumption, dividends, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with a focus on companies that can sustain growth and improve profitability [9][11]. - The technology sector is expected to see a value reassessment driven by AI empowerment, with the Hang Seng Technology Index's price-to-earnings ratio significantly lower than major global technology indices [9][10]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - In the hardware sector, opportunities are seen in breakthroughs in domestic computing chips and semiconductor equipment, while software applications are expected to benefit from accelerated digital transformation [10]. - The new consumption sector is becoming a highlight for southbound capital, with a shift in investment logic from thematic speculation to performance verification [11]. - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is poised for growth, with Chinese companies transitioning from "followers" to "leaders" in global markets, supported by policy backing and competitive advancements [12].