上周（1月19~1月23日），南向资金净流入235.2亿港元，环比前一周有扩大。年初至今，南向资金净流 入香港市场593亿港元，占去年全年净流入水平的4.56%。 再从个股层面看，南向资金上周重点加仓阿里巴巴-W、小米集团-W、泡泡玛特、中芯国际等，分别净 流入33.49亿港元、25.83亿港元、16.91亿港元、16.83亿港元，互联网平台与科技龙头占据主要位置。 港股科技相关ETF，关注恒生互联网ETF（513330.SH）及港股通科技ETF基金（159101.SZ）。恒生互 联网ETF（513330.SH）聚焦互联网巨头，囊括未在港股通范围内的百度集团-S、京东集团-S、网易-S 等；港股通科技ETF基金（159101.SZ）则聚焦港股硬科技+软应用+智能驾驶+CXO多重概念，同时成分 股包括中芯国际、阿里巴巴、小米集团、理想汽车、信达生物等，均为港股通标的，不受QDII外汇额 度限制。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Southbound capital has continued to increase its holdings in the Hong Kong stock market, with a cumulative net inflow of HKD 41.296 billion as of January 13 this year, and a record net inflow of HKD 1,404.844 billion in 2025. This influx has contributed to a strong performance in the Hong Kong stock market, with expectations for continued strength in 2026 due to reasonable market valuations and the absence of bubbles [1][2][4]. Group 1: Catalysts for Hong Kong Stock Market Strength - The first catalyst is the strong cycle driven by technological innovation, particularly in AI and new consumption sectors, which are benefiting from a global focus on technological advancement. Hong Kong, as a core listing ground for Chinese tech companies, stands to gain from the AI industry boom [4][6]. - The second catalyst is the continuation of foreign capital inflow. After years of underweighting Chinese core assets, foreign capital has shifted from outflow to inflow since 2025, recognizing the long-term value of Chinese tech, robotics, and AI sectors, which are globally competitive and offer attractive valuations [2][5]. - The third catalyst is the sustained inflow of southbound capital, which solidifies the foundation for ongoing market performance [6]. Group 2: Support for Earnings Growth in Hong Kong Stocks - The first support factor for earnings growth is the strong potential of tech stocks in Hong Kong, particularly those with robust AI capabilities and high technical barriers [6]. - The second support factor is the bright growth prospects in the new consumption sector, despite some differentiation in the consumer market. The adjustments in the second half of 2025 have mitigated some market risks, allowing fundamentally strong companies to maintain high growth in 2026 [6]. - The third support factor is the high dividend assets in the Hong Kong market, which are expected to provide effective support for stable returns [6].

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, southbound capital recorded a net inflow of 14,048.44 million HKD, and this trend continued into 2026 with a cumulative net inflow of 412.96 million HKD as of January 13, 2026, indicating strong investor interest in the Hong Kong stock market [1] Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market has shown impressive performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising over 4% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing over 6% since the beginning of 2026 [1] - More than 60% of the stocks in the Hang Seng Index, with a total market capitalization exceeding 1 trillion HKD, have experienced price increases, with an average gain of over 3% [1] Group 2 - Analysts attribute the positive market outlook to three converging factors: an increase in expectations for overseas liquidity easing, accelerated capital inflows, and upward revisions in profit expectations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The southbound capital flow into the Hong Kong stock market reached a record net inflow of 1,404.84 billion HKD in 2025, continuing into 2026 with a cumulative net inflow of 41.296 billion HKD as of January 13, 2026, contributing to a strong performance in the Hong Kong stock market [1][2]. Group 1: Southbound Capital Flow - In 2025, southbound capital was the largest incremental funding source for the Hong Kong stock market, with a total net inflow of 1,404.84 billion HKD, setting a record for annual net inflow [1]. - As of January 13, 2026, southbound capital continued to increase, with a cumulative net inflow of 41.296 billion HKD in just seven trading days, with six of those days showing net inflows [2]. - The number of shares held by southbound capital reached 5,643.75 billion shares as of January 12, 2026, an increase of 6.39 million shares since the beginning of 2026, with a total market value of 6.33 trillion HKD [2]. Group 2: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Technology Index saw cumulative increases of 4.75%, 4.17%, and 6.41% respectively since the beginning of 2026 [4]. - Over 80% of the constituent stocks in the Hang Seng Index have risen, with notable increases in stocks such as Alibaba Health, WuXi Biologics, and JD Health, all exceeding 20% [4]. - The healthcare, materials, and conglomerates sectors led the market with increases of 15.46%, 12.86%, and 7.62% respectively, while only the telecommunications sector saw a decline of 0.49% [4]. Group 3: Valuation and Future Outlook - The rolling price-to-earnings ratio of the Hang Seng Index increased to 12.27 times as of January 13, 2026, up from 11.77 times at the beginning of 2026 [5]. - Analysts predict that the Hong Kong stock market will benefit from domestic policies and external economic conditions, with expectations of a second round of valuation recovery and further earnings growth in 2026 [6]. - Key investment themes include technology innovation, cyclical industries, and consumer sectors, with a focus on AI-related sectors, healthcare, and resource commodities [7].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to select stocks with both fundamental support and technical resonance from an analyst-recommended stock pool[14][15] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Step 1**: Construct an analyst-recommended stock pool based on three types of analyst recommendation events: upward earnings forecast revisions, initial analyst coverage, and analyst report titles exceeding expectations[15] - **Step 2**: Perform dual-layer selection on the analyst-recommended stock pool using fundamental and technical dimensions to select stocks with both fundamental support and technical resonance[15] - **Step 3**: The backtest period for the Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio is from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2025. Considering transaction costs in a fully invested state, the portfolio's annualized return is 19.08%, with an excess return of 18.06% relative to the Hang Seng Index[15] - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates a strong performance with significant excess returns over the Hang Seng Index, indicating its effectiveness in stock selection[15] Model Backtest Results - **Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio**: - **Annualized Return**: 19.08%[15] - **Excess Return**: 18.06% relative to the Hang Seng Index[15] - **Information Ratio (IR)**: 1.19[20] - **Tracking Error**: 14.60%[20] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 23.73%[20] - **Return-to-Drawdown Ratio**: 0.76[20] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Stable New High Stocks - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor aims to identify stocks that have recently reached new highs and exhibit stable price paths, leveraging the momentum and trend-following strategies that are particularly effective in the Hong Kong market[21] - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Step 1**: Calculate the 250-day new high distance using the formula: $$ 250 \text{ day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{Close_t}{\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}} $$ where $Close_t$ is the latest closing price, and $\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}$ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days[23] - **Step 2**: Screen stocks that have reached a 250-day new high in the past 20 trading days based on analyst attention, relative stock strength, price path stability, and new high continuity[23] - **Step 3**: Select stocks with the following criteria: - Analyst attention: At least 5 buy or hold ratings in the past 6 months - Relative stock strength: Top 20% in terms of price change over the past 250 days - Price path stability: Top 50% based on price displacement ratio and 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days - Trend continuity: Top 50 stocks based on the 250-day new high distance over the past 5 days[24] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively captures stocks with strong momentum and stable price paths, which are likely to continue their upward trends[21][23] Factor Backtest Results - **Stable New High Stocks**: - **Example Stocks**: J&T Express-W, China Eastern Airlines, Youran Dairy, Hansoh Pharmaceutical, China XLX Fertilizer, etc.[23][29] - **Sector Distribution**: Most new high stocks are in the cyclical sector, followed by finance, technology, consumer, manufacturing, and healthcare sectors[23][29]

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has fallen below the 6.98 mark against the US dollar, with Citigroup predicting that the RMB exchange rate will rise to 6.8 in the next 6-12 months, enhancing the attractiveness of Hong Kong stocks for foreign investors [1] Group 1: Currency and Market Dynamics - The depreciation of the RMB is expected to lead to increased foreign capital inflow into the Hong Kong stock market [1] - Southbound capital has continued its net inflow trend after the New Year, with a net purchase exceeding 18.7 billion HKD on January 5 [1] - For the entire year of 2025, over 1.4 trillion HKD in southbound capital is anticipated to provide strong liquidity support for the Hong Kong stock market [1] Group 2: AI Industry Performance - The AI industry chain remains active, with companies like SenseTime, JD Health, and Tongcheng Travel showing significant gains [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index experienced a substantial increase, with intraday gains exceeding 2% [1] - The largest Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180) saw active trading [1]

Group 1 - The core view is that the Hong Kong stock market in 2026 will experience valuation contraction combined with profit growth, with leading sectors identified as those undergoing bottom reversal and those benefiting from strengthened industrial trends or long-term logic [1] - The technology sector is highlighted for its mid-to-long-term investment value, with short-term pullbacks providing better allocation opportunities for investors [1] - Key indices such as the Hang Seng Technology Index and the Hang Seng Index show a long-term upward momentum, and the current short-term pullback is seen as a favorable entry point from an institutional allocation perspective [1] Group 2 - The fundamentals driving the Hong Kong technology sector are clear, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect gathering core domestic AI assets across the entire industry chain, including computing power, models, software applications, and hardware terminals [2] - The emergence of DeepSeek is expected to reposition Chinese technology companies in the global competitive landscape, leading to a reassessment of investment opportunities by domestic and foreign investors, which may narrow the valuation gap between Chinese and U.S. tech stocks [2] - It is anticipated that southbound capital will continue to flow into the Hong Kong stock market in 2026, supported by the correlation of Hong Kong stocks with overseas liquidity and the expected continuation of a loose monetary trend following the Federal Reserve's new rate cut cycle starting in September 2025 [2]

Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance in 2025, with the Hang Seng Index rising over 20% year-to-date, but has entered a correction phase since mid-October, with increased volatility and a downward trend in December [1] - The market's liquidity is significantly influenced by the overseas environment, while its fundamentals are closely tied to the mainland economy, with liquidity having a more immediate impact on market performance [1] - Multiple factors, including valuation advantages and improved asset quality, are expected to drive valuation recovery in the Hong Kong market, with projections indicating a second round of valuation recovery and performance rebound by 2026 [1] Group 2: Southbound Capital Inflows - A notable feature of the Hong Kong market in 2025 is the record inflow of southbound capital, with a net buying amount reaching 1.39 trillion HKD by December 15, 2025, significantly surpassing the total for 2024 [2] - Southbound capital has provided substantial liquidity to the Hong Kong market, enhancing the pricing power of mainland investors, with the total market value of southbound holdings exceeding 6.3 trillion HKD, accounting for 12.7% of the total market capitalization [2] - The inflow of southbound capital is linked to a loose monetary policy environment, with a significant increase in trading volume, which reached a historical high of 57.5 trillion HKD in the first 11 months of 2025, a 94.5% increase year-on-year [2] Group 3: Future Projections for Southbound Capital - Future projections for southbound capital inflows suggest an increase of 600 billion HKD from public funds and insurance capital, with potential inflows from individual investors estimated between 2.5 billion HKD to 5 billion HKD over the next year [3] - The ongoing trend of "deposit migration" among residents, driven by declining yields on financial products, is expected to continue, with significant room for retail investors to increase their allocation to Hong Kong stocks [3] Group 4: Share Buyback Trends - The enthusiasm for share buybacks in the Hong Kong market has increased, with total buyback amounts reaching 169.35 billion HKD in 2025, although this is lower than the 265.51 billion HKD recorded in 2024 [4] - Monthly buyback amounts have surged since October, with 93.72 billion HKD in October, 117.42 billion HKD in November, and 115.24 billion HKD in the first half of December, indicating a strong upward trend [4][5] Group 5: External Capital Flows - In 2025, external capital flows into the Hong Kong market have turned positive, with inflows of 13.44 billion USD reported, and foreign cornerstone investors actively participating in IPOs [6] - The potential for further foreign capital inflows is contingent on domestic fundamentals and the RMB exchange rate, with expectations for a slight decrease in inflow scale compared to 2025 but still strong relative to southbound capital [6] Group 6: Market Recovery Outlook - The Hong Kong market is expected to benefit from a series of reforms and external economic policies, with projections for a rebound in 2026 driven by improved corporate earnings and continued inflows of southbound and foreign capital [7][8] - Key investment directions include technology sectors, healthcare, resource commodities, essential consumer goods, and industries benefiting from RMB appreciation [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance in 2023, with the Hang Seng Index rising over 20% year-to-date, but has entered a correction phase since mid-October, with increased volatility and a significant adjustment in December [1] Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - The Hong Kong stock market is significantly influenced by overseas liquidity and closely tied to the mainland economy, with liquidity having a more immediate impact on market performance than fundamentals [1] - Multiple factors, including valuation advantages, improved asset quality, and market ecosystem restructuring, are expected to drive valuation recovery in the Hong Kong market [1] - Several brokerage firms predict that the Hong Kong market will experience a second round of valuation recovery and performance rebound by 2026, as fundamentals are expected to bottom out [1] Group 2: Southbound Capital Inflows - Southbound capital has been a key driver of the Hong Kong market's strong performance in 2025, with net inflows reaching a record 1.39 trillion HKD by December 15, 2025, significantly surpassing the total for 2024 [3] - The cumulative net inflow through the Stock Connect has reached 5.09 trillion HKD, nearing the 5.10 trillion HKD mark, providing substantial liquidity to the market and enhancing the pricing power of mainland investors [3] - The total trading volume in the Hong Kong market exceeded 57.5 trillion HKD in the first 11 months of 2025, marking a historical high and a 94.5% increase year-on-year [4] Group 3: Future Projections for Southbound Capital - Future inflows of southbound capital are expected to continue, with estimates suggesting an additional 600 billion HKD from public funds and insurance capital in 2026 [4] - If the proportion of Hong Kong stocks in new funds increases from 30.8% to 35%, there could be an additional inflow of 1 to 1.5 billion HKD [4] - Individual investors are projected to contribute significantly to the inflow, with potential purchases of 2.5 billion to 5 billion HKD in the coming year [5] Group 4: Share Buyback Trends - The enthusiasm for share buybacks in the Hong Kong market has increased, with total buyback amounts reaching 169.35 billion HKD in 2025, despite a decline from 2024 [8] - Monthly buyback amounts have surged since October, with 93.72 billion HKD in October, 117.42 billion HKD in November, and 115.24 billion HKD in the first half of December [8][10] - Major companies like Xiaomi and Tencent have contributed to the rising buyback trend, enhancing earnings per share and market confidence [9][10] Group 5: Foreign Capital Inflows - In 2025, foreign capital has stopped flowing out of the Hong Kong market, with inflows of 13.44 billion USD reported [12] - The demand for foreign capital in Chinese assets remains optimistic, driven by expectations of a stable or appreciating RMB and positive domestic fundamentals [12] - The inflow of foreign capital is expected to be slightly lower in 2026 compared to 2025, but remains strong compared to southbound capital inflows [12] Group 6: Outlook for 2026 - The Hong Kong market is anticipated to benefit from internal catalysts and external monetary easing policies, particularly from the US and Japan [14] - The market is expected to see a rebound in corporate earnings and continued inflows from southbound and foreign capital, driven by a "money-making effect" [15] - Key investment directions for 2026 include technology sectors, healthcare, resources benefiting from inflation, essential consumer goods, and industries benefiting from RMB appreciation [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has emerged as a "dark horse" leading global markets, with significant recovery since 2025, driven by valuation advantages, improved asset quality, continuous capital inflow, and market ecosystem reshaping [2][4]. Valuation and Investment Appeal - The Hong Kong stock market offers a notable valuation discount, with a current PE_TTM of 11.99, the lowest among major global indices, providing a substantial safety margin for future growth [4][6]. - The market has become a key observation point for China's new economic development, encompassing a complete AI industry chain and attracting high-quality A-share companies to list in Hong Kong [5][6]. Capital Inflow and Market Dynamics - Continuous inflow of "southbound funds" has redefined the pricing logic of the Hong Kong stock market, with net purchases reaching 1.38 trillion HKD by December 2, 2025, accounting for over 20% of trading volume [7][9]. - Long-term institutional investors, including insurance and public funds, now represent over 40% of southbound capital, enhancing market stability and investment value [9][10]. Market Activity and New Listings - The Hong Kong stock market has seen an average daily trading volume exceeding 200 billion HKD, doubling from the previous year, with 91 IPOs raising a total of 2590.65 million HKD [5][6]. - The new stock market has shown strong performance, with only 9 out of 48 new stocks declining on their debut, indicating robust investor confidence [5][6]. Future Outlook and Investment Strategies - The market is entering a value re-evaluation phase, with expectations of a second round of valuation recovery and performance resurgence in 2026, particularly in technology, healthcare, resources, consumer staples, and sectors benefiting from RMB appreciation [13][11]. - Index-based investment is highlighted as an efficient way for investors to participate in the Hong Kong market, with a diverse range of ETFs available to meet varying investor needs [11][12].