Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has shown significant liquidity improvement in 2023, with strong inflows from southbound funds, which are expected to support a "slow bull" market trend in the long term [1][1][1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower but rebounded, with the innovative drug sector experiencing a substantial increase, while new consumption and technology sectors showed fluctuating gains [1] - As of 10:18 AM, the Hang Seng Technology Index and the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index both rose by 0.8% [1] Group 2: Liquidity and Fund Inflows - The average daily trading volume in the Hong Kong stock market reached HKD 412.19 billion in the first nine months of 2023, marking a 126% year-on-year increase [1] - Southbound funds have injected significant vitality into the Hong Kong stock market, with net purchases amounting to approximately HKD 1.3 trillion year-to-date as of November 11, 2023, and over HKD 5 trillion since the program's inception [1] Group 3: Investment Outlook - According to China Merchants Securities, the continuous inflow of southbound funds is expected to drive the capital market back to fundamentals and value-driven approaches, optimizing corporate governance and protecting minority shareholders' interests [1] - Investors interested in the technology and new consumption sectors can consider products like the E Fund Hang Seng Technology ETF (513010) and the E Fund Hong Kong Consumption ETF (513070) for investment opportunities [1]

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) reported better-than-expected performance for the first three quarters of 2025, with significant growth in both revenue and net profit driven by increased market trading activity [1][5] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, HKEX achieved revenue and other income of HKD 7.775 billion, a year-on-year increase of 44.73% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.70% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 was HKD 4.900 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 55.80% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 10.31% [1] - Total revenue and other income for the first three quarters reached HKD 21.851 billion, up 36.63% year-on-year, marking a record high [1] Revenue Breakdown - In Q3 2025, trading fees and system usage fees, along with settlement and custody fees, accounted for HKD 5.484 billion, representing 70.53% of total revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 77.30% [1] - For the first three quarters, these fees totaled HKD 14.213 billion, making up 65.05% of total revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 57.05% [1] Market Activity - The trading activity in the Hong Kong stock market reached historical highs, with average daily trading (ADT) for Q3 2025 increasing by 144.80% year-on-year to HKD 2,863.58 billion [1] - Southbound capital inflows from mainland China totaled HKD 1,084.172 billion from January to September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 135.01% [1] IPO Activity - In the first three quarters of 2025, HKEX saw 68 new listings, raising HKD 187.745 billion, a year-on-year increase of 262.51% [2] - Q3 2025 alone had 25 new listings, with a fundraising amount of HKD 78.865 billion, up 86.79% year-on-year [2] Investment Income - Despite a decline in HIBOR rates due to the Federal Reserve's actions, investment income remained positive, with net investment income for the first three quarters reaching HKD 3.893 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.43% [3] - The annualized net investment return for margin and clearing funds was 1.98% and 1.85%, respectively, showing a decline compared to the previous year [3] Future Outlook - The company expects continued high performance in 2025, supported by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, ongoing southbound capital inflows, and the relative valuation advantage of Hong Kong stocks [4][6] - The projected target price for HKEX is HKD 543 per share, maintaining a "buy" rating based on historical valuation levels and market conditions [5][6]

Core Insights - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) reported a 56% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q3 2025, exceeding expectations by 7% [1] - The growth was primarily driven by robust core revenue growth, record average daily trading volume, and strong initial public offering (IPO) momentum [1] - Net interest income decreased by 13.6% to HKD 1 billion, impacted by a decline in Hong Kong interbank offered rates and reduced corporate investment portfolio returns [1] - The outlook for average daily trading volume in 2026 remains optimistic due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and strong southbound capital inflows [1] - The target price for HKEX has been raised to HKD 548, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed resilience, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 25,935.41 points, down only 16.99 points or 0.07% [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index closed at 5,785.85 points, down 32.44 points or 0.56% [2] Company Performance - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388.HK) reported a total revenue of HKD 21.851 billion for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 37%. The main business revenue was HKD 20.438 billion, up 41%, and net profit reached HKD 13.419 billion, up 45% [4] - In Q3 alone, the exchange achieved total revenue of HKD 7.775 billion, a 45% increase year-on-year, with main business revenue of HKD 7.484 billion, up 54%, and net profit of HKD 4.9 billion, up 56% [4] - Sirus (09927.HK) listed today, initially facing a drop below the issue price but later recovered to close at HKD 131.5 [5] - Zai Lab (02617.HK) surged by 26.3% following a partnership agreement with Neurocrine for the development of NLRP3 inhibitors, with a total potential value of approximately USD 882 million [7] Sector Performance - Mechanical stocks led the gains, with Weichai Power rising over 4%, Zoomlion up over 3%, and both China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and CRRC up over 2% [9] - In the coal sector, AnYue Asia increased over 4%, China Coal Energy rose over 3%, and Yanzhou Coal Mining gained over 2% [10] - Food and beverage stocks also performed well, with Master Kong Holdings up over 4%, Anjoy Foods up over 2%, and Haitian Flavoring & Food up over 1% [11] Capital Flow - Southbound funds recorded a net purchase of over HKD 10.3 billion in Hong Kong stocks by the market close [11] Market Outlook - Haitong International believes that Hong Kong stocks are undervalued compared to historical levels and major global indices, with long-term bullish drivers including foreign capital inflow expectations and sustained large-scale inflows of southbound funds, potentially exceeding RMB 1.5 trillion by 2026 [13]

每经记者｜曾子建 每经编辑｜袁东 今日（11月5日）早盘，港股市场继续跳空低开。 截至发稿，恒生指数开盘报25701.63点，下跌250.77点，跌幅0.97%。 新股方面，新能源车企赛力斯（09927.HK）上市交易，但"生不逢时"，上市即遭遇破发。截至发稿，赛力斯最低报118港元，较131.5港元的发行价跌近 10%。 | 赛力斯 (09927) CAS | | | --- | --- | | 125.100 **** A股:赛力斯 149.20 -3.51% 溢价H/A: -23.11% | + 4 | | 行情报价 | | | 成交量 128.900 今开 | 704万股 最高 128,900 | | 118.000 HER 成交额 | 9.08亿 最低 131.500 | | 买量 8.29% 换手 | 28700股 振幅 6.48% | | 英量 | 7500股 均价 129.118 | | 每股收益TTM 4.515 市盈率TTM | 27.71 每股净资产 16.846 | | 总股本 | 17.4亿 总市值 2179亿港元 市净率 7.426 | | 港股股本 | 1.09亿 港股市值 13 ...

Core Insights - Significant net inflow of southbound funds from October 13 to 17, 2025, totaling 118.12 billion yuan year-to-date, with the banking sector receiving a net inflow of 6.03 billion yuan, leading among industries [1] - The narrowing of the 10-year U.S.-China Treasury yield spread, declining U.S. bond yields, and a lower U.S. dollar index indicate an improvement in the external liquidity environment [1] - A 288% year-on-year increase in new margin trading accounts in September, reaching a new high for the year, reflects a recovery in market confidence and continuous inflow of incremental funds, supporting undervalued sectors including banking [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Financial ETF (513190) tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Mainland Financial Index, being the ETF with the highest H-share bank content [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed performance on October 17, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.14% at 25,851.94 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.07% and the National Enterprises Index saw a slight increase [1] - Southbound funds recorded a net purchase of HKD 15.822 billion in Hong Kong stocks on October 16, surpassing the HKD 100 billion mark again, bringing the total net inflow for the year to over HKD 1.2 trillion, setting a new annual record [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index has risen over 34% year-to-date as of October 16, driven by significant inflows from southbound funds, which align with the "low valuation + high elasticity" characteristics of the Hong Kong tech sector [1] Group 2 - As of October 16, the latest valuation (PETTM) of the Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180) is 22.88 times, which is at the 28.79% valuation percentile since the index was launched, indicating that over 70% of the time, valuations have been higher than the current level [2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index remains in a historically undervalued range, with high elasticity and growth characteristics providing greater upward momentum [2] - Investors without a Hong Kong Stock Connect account can access core Chinese AI assets through the Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180) [2]

Group 1 - As of October 14, 2023, southbound capital has accumulated a net inflow of 11,985.67 billion HKD this year, setting a historical high for annual net inflow [1][2] - The Hang Seng Index has risen over 26% and the Hang Seng Tech Index has increased over 32% year-to-date, with stocks having a market capitalization exceeding 1 trillion HKD showing an average increase of over 30% [1][4] - Southbound capital has been the largest source of incremental funds for the Hong Kong stock market, with over 80% of trading days this year witnessing net inflows [2][3] Group 2 - As of October 13, 2023, southbound capital holdings reached 5,458.21 billion shares, an increase of 821.50 billion shares since the beginning of 2023, with a total market value of 63,500 billion HKD [2] - The financial, information technology, and consumer discretionary sectors have the highest market values held by southbound capital, amounting to 14,032.34 billion HKD, 13,707.60 billion HKD, and 9,006.28 billion HKD respectively [2] - Major stocks held by southbound capital include Tencent Holdings exceeding 6,800 billion HKD and Alibaba-W, China Mobile, and others exceeding 2,000 billion HKD [2][3] Group 3 - Recent adjustments in the Hong Kong stock market have seen the Hang Seng Index drop over 5% and the Hang Seng Tech Index drop over 8% in October [5] - Analysts suggest that while short-term volatility may persist, the long-term upward trend for the Hong Kong stock market remains intact, supported by domestic growth policies and stabilizing investor sentiment [5][6] - The technology sector is expected to benefit from current industry trends, with potential for further inflows from foreign capital and continued support from southbound capital [6]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX) with a target price of 543 HKD, supported by expectations of liquidity from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, continuous inflow of southbound funds, and valuation advantages [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to maintain high activity levels in Q4 due to three main factors: the Federal Reserve's shift in monetary policy providing liquidity support, continuous inflow of southbound funds, and significant valuation advantages [2][3] - Since April, HKEX has shown a recovery in overall valuation after a significant decline, driven by high average daily trading volume and sustained buying from southbound funds [1] Group 2: Financial Projections - For Q3 2025, the company is projected to achieve revenue and other income of 79.11 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 47.26%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 48.24 billion HKD, up 53.38% year-on-year [2] - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are expected to grow by 27.94%, 5.93%, and 1.17% respectively, reaching 286.25 billion HKD, 303.21 billion HKD, and 306.75 billion HKD [2] Group 3: Valuation and Investment Appeal - As of October 10, the PE (TTM) ratio for HKEX is 36.49x, which is at the 72.15%, 71.85%, and 47.43% percentiles for the past 1, 3, and 5 years respectively, indicating a potential for further valuation recovery [1] - The Hang Seng Index's PE-TTM is approximately 11.95x, placing it at the 64th percentile over the past 20 years, highlighting the relative valuation advantage of Hong Kong stocks compared to the CSI 300's 14.24x [3]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX) with a target price of HKD 543, citing liquidity expectations from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, continuous inflow of southbound funds, and valuation advantages as key factors supporting the high activity level in the Hong Kong stock market in Q4 [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The Hong Kong stock market has shown a recovery in valuation since April, driven by high average daily trading volume and sustained buying from southbound funds [1] - As of October 10, 2025, HKEX's PE (TTM) stands at 36.49x, positioned at the 72.15%, 71.85%, and 47.43% percentiles over the past 1, 3, and 5 years respectively [1] - The company is expected to achieve high year-on-year growth in Q3 earnings, with projected revenues of HKD 79.11 billion (up 47.26%) and net profit of HKD 48.24 billion (up 53.38%) [2] Group 2: Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be HKD 286.25 billion, HKD 303.21 billion, and HKD 306.75 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.94%, 5.93%, and 1.17% [2] - Net profit forecasts for the same years are HKD 179.02 billion, HKD 194.44 billion, and HKD 198.57 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 40.88%, 8.62%, and 2.13% [2] Group 3: Supporting Factors - The Federal Reserve's shift in monetary policy, including interest rate cuts, is expected to enhance liquidity in emerging markets, providing support for the Hong Kong stock market [2] - Southbound funds have seen a net inflow exceeding HKD 1 trillion since the beginning of 2025, driven by the low valuation of Hong Kong stocks and liquidity spillover from the A-share market [3] - The valuation of the Hang Seng Index remains attractive, with a PE-TTM of approximately 11.95x, which is at the 64% percentile over the past 20 years, highlighting the "valuation pit" effect of Hong Kong stocks compared to the CSI 300's 14.24x [3]