智通财经2月27日讯（编辑 冯轶）今日港股2月行情正式收官。据Wind数据显示，2月南向资金累计净流入约905.75亿港元，为近3个月以来的单月新高。 需要指出的是，考虑到春节假期影响，本月港股通仅有14个交易日，日均流入达64.69亿港元，环比1月增长近9成，实际呈现爆发式流入。 其中，有5个交易日单日净买入规模超过百亿，且频频刷新阶段性纪录。 可以看到，尽管港股大市行情2月震荡走弱，但在恒指中枢下移过程中，南向资金仍在主动加仓。 | | 南向资金2月流向 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 所属行业 | 净买卖金额(亿) | 占行业总市值 | | 资讯科技业 | 393.72 | -1.1 | | 非必需性消费 | 211.96 | -1.04 | | 地产建筑业 | 99.4 | 0.35 | | 要鄙亦 | 97.62 | 0.95 | | 能源业 | 61.57 | 0.75 | | 必用事业 | 26.96 | 50'0 | | 工业 | 26.06 | 0.46 | | 医疗保健业 | 18.04 | -0.5. | | 综合企业 | 1.82 | 0.01 | | 必需性消费 ...

中银香港(02388)涨超3%，截至发稿，涨2.78%，报44.42港元，成交额3.6亿港元。 汇丰研究发布研报称，香港股票市值(现货约50万亿港元)及住宅物业市场价值(该行估计约10万亿港 元)，相对香港本地生产总值(2025年预测约3.3万亿港元)而言规模极大。股票及物业市场的收益亦可为 银行的贷款增长、存款流入及费用收入带来上行空间。该行敏感度分析显示，股票及物业市场价值每上 升10%，可创造约6万亿港元的净财富，相当于贡献本地生产总值的183%及行业贷款的60%。该行相信 中银香港(02388)处于有利位置，可捕捉中国内地企业海外扩张的需求。 汇丰研究预期，在中国内地利率长期走低的环境下，南向资金流入将保持强劲，中国内地投资者对香港 资产的需求亦将旺盛。新开户客户数目应持续高企，支持资产管理规模增长。香港银行业于2025年录得 11.8%的强劲存款增长。该行将中银香港2025至2027年预测存款及生息资产的复合年增长率预测上调0.6 至1.4个百分点，分别至7.7%及5.7%。 ...

来源：智通财经网 汇丰研究预期，在中国内地利率长期走低的环境下，南向资金流入将保持强劲，中国内地投资者对香港 资产的需求亦将旺盛。新开户客户数目应持续高企，支持资产管理规模增长。香港银行业于2025年录得 11.8%的强劲存款增长。该行将中银香港2025至2027年预测存款及生息资产的复合年增长率预测上调0.6 至1.4个百分点，分别至7.7%及5.7%。 中银香港(02388)涨超3%，截至发稿，涨2.78%，报44.42港元，成交额3.6亿港元。 汇丰研究发布研报称，香港股票市值(现货约50万亿港元)及住宅物业市场价值(该行估计约10万亿港 元)，相对香港本地生产总值(2025年预测约3.3万亿港元)而言规模极大。股票及物业市场的收益亦可为 银行的贷款增长、存款流入及费用收入带来上行空间。该行敏感度分析显示，股票及物业市场价值每上 升10%，可创造约6万亿港元的净财富，相当于贡献本地生产总值的183%及行业贷款的60%。该行相信 中银香港(02388)处于有利位置，可捕捉中国内地企业海外扩张的需求。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that southbound capital inflow into the Hong Kong market reached 23.52 billion HKD last week, showing an increase compared to the previous week [1] - Year-to-date, the net inflow of southbound capital into Hong Kong has totaled 59.3 billion HKD, which represents 4.56% of the total net inflow for the entire previous year [1] - Key stocks that saw significant net inflows from southbound capital last week include Alibaba-W (3.349 billion HKD), Xiaomi Group-W (2.583 billion HKD), Pop Mart (1.691 billion HKD), and SMIC (1.683 billion HKD), indicating a strong focus on internet platforms and technology leaders [1] Group 2 - The article suggests monitoring technology-related ETFs in the Hong Kong market, specifically the Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330.SH) and the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159101.SZ) [1] - The Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330.SH) focuses on internet giants and includes companies not covered by the Stock Connect, such as Baidu Group-S, JD Group-S, and NetEase-S [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159101.SZ) targets hard technology, soft applications, smart driving, and CXO concepts, with constituent stocks including SMIC, Alibaba, Xiaomi, Li Auto, and Innovent Biologics, all of which are eligible for Stock Connect and not subject to QDII foreign exchange limits [1]

Core Viewpoint - Southbound capital has continued to increase its holdings in the Hong Kong stock market, with a cumulative net inflow of HKD 41.296 billion as of January 13 this year, and a record net inflow of HKD 1,404.844 billion in 2025. This influx has contributed to a strong performance in the Hong Kong stock market, with expectations for continued strength in 2026 due to reasonable market valuations and the absence of bubbles [1][2][4]. Group 1: Catalysts for Hong Kong Stock Market Strength - The first catalyst is the strong cycle driven by technological innovation, particularly in AI and new consumption sectors, which are benefiting from a global focus on technological advancement. Hong Kong, as a core listing ground for Chinese tech companies, stands to gain from the AI industry boom [4][6]. - The second catalyst is the continuation of foreign capital inflow. After years of underweighting Chinese core assets, foreign capital has shifted from outflow to inflow since 2025, recognizing the long-term value of Chinese tech, robotics, and AI sectors, which are globally competitive and offer attractive valuations [2][5]. - The third catalyst is the sustained inflow of southbound capital, which solidifies the foundation for ongoing market performance [6]. Group 2: Support for Earnings Growth in Hong Kong Stocks - The first support factor for earnings growth is the strong potential of tech stocks in Hong Kong, particularly those with robust AI capabilities and high technical barriers [6]. - The second support factor is the bright growth prospects in the new consumption sector, despite some differentiation in the consumer market. The adjustments in the second half of 2025 have mitigated some market risks, allowing fundamentally strong companies to maintain high growth in 2026 [6]. - The third support factor is the high dividend assets in the Hong Kong market, which are expected to provide effective support for stable returns [6].

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, southbound capital recorded a net inflow of 14,048.44 million HKD, and this trend continued into 2026 with a cumulative net inflow of 412.96 million HKD as of January 13, 2026, indicating strong investor interest in the Hong Kong stock market [1] Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market has shown impressive performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising over 4% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing over 6% since the beginning of 2026 [1] - More than 60% of the stocks in the Hang Seng Index, with a total market capitalization exceeding 1 trillion HKD, have experienced price increases, with an average gain of over 3% [1] Group 2 - Analysts attribute the positive market outlook to three converging factors: an increase in expectations for overseas liquidity easing, accelerated capital inflows, and upward revisions in profit expectations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The southbound capital flow into the Hong Kong stock market reached a record net inflow of 1,404.84 billion HKD in 2025, continuing into 2026 with a cumulative net inflow of 41.296 billion HKD as of January 13, 2026, contributing to a strong performance in the Hong Kong stock market [1][2]. Group 1: Southbound Capital Flow - In 2025, southbound capital was the largest incremental funding source for the Hong Kong stock market, with a total net inflow of 1,404.84 billion HKD, setting a record for annual net inflow [1]. - As of January 13, 2026, southbound capital continued to increase, with a cumulative net inflow of 41.296 billion HKD in just seven trading days, with six of those days showing net inflows [2]. - The number of shares held by southbound capital reached 5,643.75 billion shares as of January 12, 2026, an increase of 6.39 million shares since the beginning of 2026, with a total market value of 6.33 trillion HKD [2]. Group 2: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Technology Index saw cumulative increases of 4.75%, 4.17%, and 6.41% respectively since the beginning of 2026 [4]. - Over 80% of the constituent stocks in the Hang Seng Index have risen, with notable increases in stocks such as Alibaba Health, WuXi Biologics, and JD Health, all exceeding 20% [4]. - The healthcare, materials, and conglomerates sectors led the market with increases of 15.46%, 12.86%, and 7.62% respectively, while only the telecommunications sector saw a decline of 0.49% [4]. Group 3: Valuation and Future Outlook - The rolling price-to-earnings ratio of the Hang Seng Index increased to 12.27 times as of January 13, 2026, up from 11.77 times at the beginning of 2026 [5]. - Analysts predict that the Hong Kong stock market will benefit from domestic policies and external economic conditions, with expectations of a second round of valuation recovery and further earnings growth in 2026 [6]. - Key investment themes include technology innovation, cyclical industries, and consumer sectors, with a focus on AI-related sectors, healthcare, and resource commodities [7].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to select stocks with both fundamental support and technical resonance from an analyst-recommended stock pool[14][15] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Step 1**: Construct an analyst-recommended stock pool based on three types of analyst recommendation events: upward earnings forecast revisions, initial analyst coverage, and analyst report titles exceeding expectations[15] - **Step 2**: Perform dual-layer selection on the analyst-recommended stock pool using fundamental and technical dimensions to select stocks with both fundamental support and technical resonance[15] - **Step 3**: The backtest period for the Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio is from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2025. Considering transaction costs in a fully invested state, the portfolio's annualized return is 19.08%, with an excess return of 18.06% relative to the Hang Seng Index[15] - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates a strong performance with significant excess returns over the Hang Seng Index, indicating its effectiveness in stock selection[15] Model Backtest Results - **Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio**: - **Annualized Return**: 19.08%[15] - **Excess Return**: 18.06% relative to the Hang Seng Index[15] - **Information Ratio (IR)**: 1.19[20] - **Tracking Error**: 14.60%[20] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 23.73%[20] - **Return-to-Drawdown Ratio**: 0.76[20] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Stable New High Stocks - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor aims to identify stocks that have recently reached new highs and exhibit stable price paths, leveraging the momentum and trend-following strategies that are particularly effective in the Hong Kong market[21] - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Step 1**: Calculate the 250-day new high distance using the formula: $$ 250 \text{ day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{Close_t}{\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}} $$ where $Close_t$ is the latest closing price, and $\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}$ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days[23] - **Step 2**: Screen stocks that have reached a 250-day new high in the past 20 trading days based on analyst attention, relative stock strength, price path stability, and new high continuity[23] - **Step 3**: Select stocks with the following criteria: - Analyst attention: At least 5 buy or hold ratings in the past 6 months - Relative stock strength: Top 20% in terms of price change over the past 250 days - Price path stability: Top 50% based on price displacement ratio and 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days - Trend continuity: Top 50 stocks based on the 250-day new high distance over the past 5 days[24] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively captures stocks with strong momentum and stable price paths, which are likely to continue their upward trends[21][23] Factor Backtest Results - **Stable New High Stocks**: - **Example Stocks**: J&T Express-W, China Eastern Airlines, Youran Dairy, Hansoh Pharmaceutical, China XLX Fertilizer, etc.[23][29] - **Sector Distribution**: Most new high stocks are in the cyclical sector, followed by finance, technology, consumer, manufacturing, and healthcare sectors[23][29]

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has fallen below the 6.98 mark against the US dollar, with Citigroup predicting that the RMB exchange rate will rise to 6.8 in the next 6-12 months, enhancing the attractiveness of Hong Kong stocks for foreign investors [1] Group 1: Currency and Market Dynamics - The depreciation of the RMB is expected to lead to increased foreign capital inflow into the Hong Kong stock market [1] - Southbound capital has continued its net inflow trend after the New Year, with a net purchase exceeding 18.7 billion HKD on January 5 [1] - For the entire year of 2025, over 1.4 trillion HKD in southbound capital is anticipated to provide strong liquidity support for the Hong Kong stock market [1] Group 2: AI Industry Performance - The AI industry chain remains active, with companies like SenseTime, JD Health, and Tongcheng Travel showing significant gains [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index experienced a substantial increase, with intraday gains exceeding 2% [1] - The largest Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180) saw active trading [1]

Group 1 - The core view is that the Hong Kong stock market in 2026 will experience valuation contraction combined with profit growth, with leading sectors identified as those undergoing bottom reversal and those benefiting from strengthened industrial trends or long-term logic [1] - The technology sector is highlighted for its mid-to-long-term investment value, with short-term pullbacks providing better allocation opportunities for investors [1] - Key indices such as the Hang Seng Technology Index and the Hang Seng Index show a long-term upward momentum, and the current short-term pullback is seen as a favorable entry point from an institutional allocation perspective [1] Group 2 - The fundamentals driving the Hong Kong technology sector are clear, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect gathering core domestic AI assets across the entire industry chain, including computing power, models, software applications, and hardware terminals [2] - The emergence of DeepSeek is expected to reposition Chinese technology companies in the global competitive landscape, leading to a reassessment of investment opportunities by domestic and foreign investors, which may narrow the valuation gap between Chinese and U.S. tech stocks [2] - It is anticipated that southbound capital will continue to flow into the Hong Kong stock market in 2026, supported by the correlation of Hong Kong stocks with overseas liquidity and the expected continuation of a loose monetary trend following the Federal Reserve's new rate cut cycle starting in September 2025 [2]