FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： 閱文集團 呈交日期： 2025年8月13日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | 於香港聯交所上市 | 是 | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00772 | 說明 | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）變動 | 庫存股份變動 | | | | 事件 | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數 目 | 佔有關事件前的現有已發 行股份（不包括庫存股 份）數目 ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Buy" with a target price of HKD 39.00, indicating a potential upside of 25.0% from the current price of HKD 31.20 [1][15]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the company's derivative business is accelerating, which is a key driver for the upgraded rating. The company maintains a leading position in high-quality IP reserves and is expected to benefit from the expansion of IP derivative products [1][5]. - The financial outlook for the company shows a mixed performance, with expected revenue growth stabilizing in the online business for 2025, despite a projected decline in copyright operations revenue [5][10]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 7,012 million - 2024: RMB 8,121 million - 2025E: RMB 7,439 million - 2026E: RMB 8,067 million - 2027E: RMB 8,403 million - The year-on-year growth rates show a decline of 8.0% in 2023, followed by a recovery of 15.8% in 2024, and further fluctuations in subsequent years [2][10][16]. - Net profit estimates are: - 2023: RMB 1,130 million - 2024: RMB 1,142 million - 2025E: RMB 1,348 million - 2026E: RMB 1,486 million - 2027E: RMB 1,659 million - The net profit growth rate is expected to be 24.8% in 2025, following a slight increase in 2024 [2][10][16]. Business Segment Performance - The online business revenue showed a slight increase of 2% year-on-year, with a stable monthly active user (MAU) count of 10.3 million and a 5% increase in paying users to 9.2 million [5][9]. - The report notes a significant decline in revenue from copyright operations, down 46% year-on-year, primarily due to delays in new content releases [5][9]. Valuation and Market Position - The report maintains the non-IFRS net profit expectations for 2025/26 and adjusts the valuation to 2026, referencing an average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 25 times for comparable companies [5][10]. - The company is positioned to leverage its IP reserves and the integration of AI-generated content (AIGC) to enhance efficiency and accelerate the adaptation of mid-tier IP into visual formats [5][10].

瑞银发布研报称，预期阅文集团(00772)下半年表现将有反弹，且IP业务前景完好。目标价由37.2港元升 至40港元，评级"买入"。瑞银维持经调整净利润预测为13.5亿元，因为营收入账方式和内容日程时间的 改变应不会影响全年纯利表现。该行认为投资者的焦点已逐渐转移到知识产权授权及商品业务，这两项 业务作为公司的核心增长动力，前景仍然完好。 ...

瑞银发布研报称，预期阅文集团(00772)下半年表现将有反弹，且IP业务前景完好。目标价由37.2港元升 至40港元，评级"买入"。瑞银维持经调整净利润预测为13.5亿元，因为营收入账方式和内容日程时间的 改变应不会影响全年纯利表现。该行认为投资者的焦点已逐渐转移到知识产权授权及商品业务，这两项 业务作为公司的核心增长动力，前景仍然完好。 ...

花旗发布研报称，阅文集团(00772)上半年业绩略胜于预期，主要受惠于授权业务增长、短剧表现稳健 及IP商品化进展，令非新丽传媒(NCM)业务利润增长较预期强劲。该行认为，撇除NCM的内容发行时 间表可能存在不确定性，公司的盈利增长轨迹较为明确，将目标价由37.4港元上调至38港元，相当于 2026年预测市盈率23倍，维持"买入"评级。 踏入下半年，花旗预计阅文集团的IP商品化将继续取得进展;受惠于独特IP及与作者合作，短剧增长势 头将会持续;如果NCM按计划发行内容，预期NCM业务今年的盈利贡献为2.43亿元人民币。 ...

富瑞发布研报称，阅文集团(00772)中期收入较市场及该行预期高1.4%与3.5%，主要因IP营运及其他收 入(撇除新丽传媒)好过预期。非国际财务报告准则(Non-IFRS)盈利表现好过预期，因毛利率较好及严格 管控成本，维持"买入"评级。 管理层强调将凭借其丰富及热门的IP储备，把握IP衍生商品与授权业务的机会。针对新丽传媒，该行重 申此前观点，认为剧集业务收入将于下半年释放;AI技术亦有望赋能营运端及作家端，并优化用户体 验。 ...

踏入下半年，花旗预计阅文集团的IP商品化将继续取得进展;受惠于独特IP及与作者合作，短剧增长势 头将会持续;如果NCM按计划发行内容，预期NCM业务今年的盈利贡献为2.43亿元人民币。 智通财经APP获悉，花旗发布研报称，阅文集团(00772)上半年业绩略胜于预期，主要受惠于授权业务增 长、短剧表现稳健及IP商品化进展，令非新丽传媒(NCM)业务利润增长较预期强劲。该行认为，撇除 NCM的内容发行时间表可能存在不确定性，公司的盈利增长轨迹较为明确，将目标价由37.4港元上调 至38港元，相当于2026年预测市盈率23倍，维持"买入"评级。 ...

管理层强调将凭借其丰富及热门的IP储备，把握IP衍生商品与授权业务的机会。针对新丽传媒，该行重 申此前观点，认为剧集业务收入将于下半年释放;AI技术亦有望赋能营运端及作家端，并优化用户体 验。 智通财经APP获悉，富瑞发布研报称，阅文集团(00772)中期收入较市场及该行预期高1.4%与3.5%，主 要因IP营运及其他收入(撇除新丽传媒)好过预期。非国际财务报告准则(Non-IFRS)盈利表现好过预期， 因毛利率较好及严格管控成本，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 3.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 23.9%, primarily due to a 48.4% decrease in copyright operation and licensing revenue, attributed to the development cycle and scheduling of film and television projects [2][3] - Despite the revenue decline, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders reached 850 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 68.5%, driven by a reduction in costs [5] - The company's CEO emphasized the significant commercialization potential of IP and the importance of quickly responding to user demands in the derivative product business [2] Revenue Breakdown - The company's online business revenue for the first half of 2025 was 1.985 billion yuan, accounting for 62.2% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 2.3% [2] - The copyright operation and licensing revenue for the first half of 2025 was 1.205 billion yuan, a decrease of 46.4% year-on-year, with the main revenue from copyright operations dropping 48.4% to 1.138 billion yuan [3][4] IP Derivative Products - The GMV of IP derivative products reached 480 million yuan in the first half of 2025, nearing the 500 million yuan target for the entire year of 2024 [8] - The company has seen strong performance from its top IPs, including "Full-Time Master" and "Fox Demon Little Red," and is planning to develop customized derivative products for mid-tier IPs [8][9] - The company has established an integrated online and offline channel network for its derivative products and is continuously expanding [8] Cost Management - The company's cost of revenue decreased by 25.1% year-on-year to 1.578 billion yuan, mainly due to the absence of new film and television projects, which resulted in no corresponding production costs [5] - Sales and marketing expenses decreased by 20.4% to 922 million yuan, primarily due to reduced marketing and promotional expenses related to film and television projects [5] Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is actively investing in the card game and plush toy sectors to enhance its market position and capitalize on the growing demand for derivative products [9] - Analysts suggest that while the company has made significant strides in the IP derivative market, the current GMV is still modest compared to the broader market potential, indicating a need for the company's IPs to gain greater influence beyond their original formats [9][10]

杰富瑞报告指出，阅文集团中期收入同比下降23.9%至32亿元，非国际财务报告准则盈利优于预期，受 益于毛利率提升和成本控制。管理层强调将利用其IP储备拓展衍生品和授权业务。报告重申新丽传媒的 剧集业务收入将在下半年释放，并看好AI技术对运营、作家及用户体验的赋能。杰富瑞维持阅文集 团"买入"评级，目标价由35港元上调至36港元。 ...