Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][3][7] Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in core net profit by 28% in the first half of 2024, with total revenue of 469 billion yuan, down 24.5% year-on-year. The attributable net profit was 59 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.2%. The core net profit, excluding minority interests and fair value changes of investment properties and financial derivatives, was 48 billion yuan, down 27.9% [2][4][5] - The property development business faced challenges, with revenue dropping to 338 billion yuan, a 32% decline year-on-year. However, the operational and service revenue grew by 7% to 131 billion yuan, providing stable cash flow to mitigate the impact of the downturn in development business [2][4][5] - The company maintains a robust land reserve, with a total of 41.41 million square meters and an average land cost of 4,729 yuan per square meter. The high-quality land reserves account for 73% of the total area, representing 78% of the sales value [5][6][7] Financial Forecasts and Indicators - Revenue projections for 2024 and 2025 have been adjusted downwards to 154.3 billion yuan and 139.8 billion yuan, respectively, due to the decline in the transfer scale. The attributable net profit forecasts for the same years are 11.4 billion yuan and 11.0 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 1.66 yuan and 1.60 yuan [2][7][8] - The company's financial health is stable, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 59% and a net debt ratio of 57%. The company has 501 billion yuan in cash and a total interest-bearing debt of 1,874 billion yuan [5][6][7] - The company operates 91 shopping malls with a total operational area of 8.29 million square meters, and the operational revenue for the first half of 2024 was 131 billion yuan, with service revenue growing by 11% [6][7]

Financial Performance - Contract sales amounted to RMB 51.12 billion, corresponding to a total sales area of 3.655 million square meters[1] - Revenue reached RMB 46.86 billion, with operating and service business revenue contributing RMB 13.10 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%[1] - Shareholders' profit attributable was RMB 5.87 billion, with core profit after fair value adjustments at RMB 4.75 billion, over 80% contributed by operating and service businesses[1] - Gross profit was RMB 9.64 billion, with a gross margin of 20.6% and a core net profit margin of 11.7%[1] - The company reported a net profit of RMB 6.97 billion for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 9.30 billion in the same period last year[2] - Total comprehensive income for the period was RMB 6.89 billion, down from RMB 9.57 billion year-on-year[3] - Total revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 46,855,050, a decrease of 24.5% compared to RMB 62,044,415 for the same period in 2023[16] - Customer contract revenue decreased to RMB 40,247,297 from RMB 55,712,107, representing a decline of 27.5% year-over-year[16] - The adjusted segment profit for the six months ending June 30, 2024, was RMB 7,345,042, down from RMB 11,084,545 in the previous year, indicating a decrease of about 33.1%[14] - The company reported a comprehensive pre-tax profit of RMB 9,130,542 for the six months ending June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 12,374,676 for the same period in 2023, reflecting a decline of approximately 26.3%[14] Assets and Liabilities - Non-current assets totaled RMB 262.91 billion, while current assets amounted to RMB 431.41 billion as of June 30, 2024[4] - Total assets as of June 30, 2024, were RMB 449,952,522, slightly up from RMB 449,483,963 as of December 31, 2023[16] - Total liabilities increased to RMB 163,179,246 from RMB 160,540,953, reflecting a rise of 1.0%[18] - As of June 30, 2024, the group's total borrowings amounted to RMB 187.42 billion, with cash on hand of RMB 50.06 billion, resulting in a net debt ratio of 56.7%[58] - The average financing cost for the group is 4.16%, with a weighted average loan term of 9.19 years; non-collateralized debt accounts for 47.5% of total debt[58] Earnings and Dividends - Basic earnings per share were RMB 0.90, with core basic earnings per share at RMB 0.73, and an interim dividend of RMB 0.22 per share was declared[1] - The company declared an interim dividend of RMB 1,488,848,000, equivalent to RMB 0.22 per share, compared to RMB 2,029,345,000 or RMB 0.32 per share for the same period last year[26] - Basic and diluted earnings per share for the six months ended June 30, 2024, were RMB 5,865,716, down from RMB 8,057,952 in 2023[27] Business Segments - The company’s operating segments are categorized into development, operating, and service businesses, with the development business primarily focused on properties in China[11] - The development business segment generated revenue of RMB 33,757,912, while the operating business and service business segments contributed RMB 6,607,753 and RMB 9,115,138, respectively[13] - For the first half of 2024, the group's development business revenue was RMB 33.76 billion, with a total delivered property area of 3.029 million square meters, and a gross profit margin of 7.4%[35] - The property management segment generated revenue of RMB 5.78 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.2%[32] - The group's service business and other non-tax revenue reached RMB 6.49 billion in the first half of 2024, an increase of 11.1% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 32.3%[48] Market and Sales - The total sales of commercial housing in China for the first half of 2024 amounted to RMB 4.71 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 25%[31] - The western region accounted for 28.1% of the total contracted sales, while the Yangtze River Delta and Bohai Rim regions contributed 27.0% and 20.1%, respectively[37] - The group continues to expand its operational business in major first and second-tier cities, focusing on shopping malls and rental housing[41] - The total revenue from the group's various cities showed significant variation, with Chengdu leading at RMB 5.732 billion, followed by Xi'an at RMB 3.758 billion[38] Operational Highlights - The company opened 91 shopping malls in 20 key cities, achieving an overall occupancy rate of 96%[32] - Rental income from the long-term rental apartment brand "Guan Yu" reached RMB 1.31 billion, with an occupancy rate of 95.6%[32] - The total operational area of the group's shopping malls was 8.29 million square meters, with an overall occupancy rate of 96.0%[42] - The average daily foot traffic for the shopping malls was 2.95 million visitors, with total sales amounting to RMB 34.2 billion in the first half of 2024[45] Strategic Initiatives - The company emphasized financial stability and proactive debt reduction as key strategies for sustainable growth amid market challenges[33] - The group plans to continue expanding its market presence and enhance its product offerings in the coming quarters[42] - The group plans to open approximately 10 new malls in cities such as Suzhou, Hefei, and Tianjin in the second half of the year, continuing its strategy of balanced development in core cities[60] Governance and Compliance - The company has appointed Mr. Chen Xuping as both the Chairman of the Board and the CEO, which deviates from the corporate governance code that recommends these roles be separated[65] - The Audit Committee, consisting of three independent non-executive directors, has reviewed the unaudited interim results for the six months ending June 30, 2024, prior to board approval[66] - All directors confirmed compliance with the standard code regarding securities trading for the six months ending June 30, 2024[67] - The interim report for the six months ending June 30, 2024, will be sent to shareholders and published on the company's website and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's dedicated site[68]

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 52周内股价走势图 龙湖集团 恒生指数 -55% -44% -32% -21% -9% 2% 2023/82023/9 2023/102023/112023/122024/12024/22024/32024/42024/52024/62024/72024/8 本报告导读： 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|--------------------|---------------------------|----------------------| | | 谢皓宇(分析师) | 黄可意(研究助理) | 白淑媛(分析师) | | | 010-83939826 | 010-83939815 | 021-38675923 | | | xiehaoyu@gtjas.com | huangkeyi028691@gtjas.com | baishuyuan@gtj ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its initial coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company has a diversified business model that supports growth across various segments, focusing on high-energy cities for its development activities [2][3]. - The company's operational and service segments contribute significantly to its profitability, helping it navigate through market cycles [2][3]. - The debt structure is well-managed, with a focus on maintaining low financing costs and a healthy balance sheet [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has been deeply involved in the real estate sector for over 31 years, establishing itself as a leading comprehensive real estate developer in China with a "1+2+2" business model [2][8]. - The ownership structure is stable, with significant control retained by the founding families [10][11]. 2. Development Business - The company has focused its development efforts on high-energy cities, with over 90% of sales coming from first and second-tier cities [2][3]. - Sales performance has been strong, with a compound annual growth rate of 15.1% from 2014 to 2023, and a sales completion rate in line with industry averages [2][3][15]. - The company has adopted a cautious approach to land acquisition, with a significant portion of its land reserves located in core cities [2][3][22]. 3. Operational and Service Segments - The operational business, including shopping malls and rental apartments, has shown stable growth, contributing over 60% to the company's profits [2][3][24]. - The rental income from the company's long-term rental apartments has been increasing, with a high occupancy rate and consistent profitability [2][3][28]. - The service segment, including property management, has also seen growth, with a focus on quality and customer satisfaction [2][3][29]. 4. Debt Structure and Financing - The company's debt levels have decreased, with a focus on maintaining a healthy financial position and low financing costs [2][3][32]. - The debt maturity profile is well-structured, with a significant portion of debt maturing in the longer term, reducing short-term repayment pressure [2][3][33].

股 票 研 究 [Table_industryInfo] 房地产 [ Table_Main[ 龙 TIna 湖fbole] 集 _T 团itle （] 0960） [评Tab级le_：Inv est] 增持 当前价格（港元）： 13.52 积极布局高能级城市 2024.05.27 海 ——2024 年 4 月经营数据点评 [ 交Ta易bl数e_据M arket] 外 谢皓宇(分析师) 黄可意(研究助理) 白淑媛(分析师) 52周内股价区间（港元） 7.92-20.75 公 010-83939826 010-83939815 021-38675923 当前股本（百万股） 6,767 当前市值（百万港元） 91,494 司 xiehaoyu@gtjas.com huangkeyi028691@gtjas.com baishuyuan@gtjas.com 证书编号 S0880518010002 S0880123070129 S0880518010004 （ [ Table_PicQuote] 中 本报告导读： 52周内股价走势图 国 公司发布4月经营数据，非开发业务稳中向好，而开发业务有待继续修复，预期在政 龙湖集 ...

Financial Performance - The company reported a significant increase in revenue, achieving a total of 10 billion in 2023, representing a year-over-year growth of 15%[4] - The operating and service business generated sustainable revenue of RMB24.9 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of nearly 6%[55] - The property development business recorded contracted sales of RMB173.49 billion for the year, with a total sales area of 10.796 million square meters and an average selling price of RMB16,070 per square meter[74] - The Group achieved contract sales of RMB173.5 billion in the development business, ranking ninth in the industry[55] - The total contracted sales in 2023 decreased from RMB201.59 billion in 2022, indicating a year-over-year decline[78] Market Expansion and Strategy - The company is expanding its market presence, targeting 10 new cities in Southern China by the end of 2024[4] - The company is actively pursuing market expansion in Fuzhou with projects like Jiangchen Garden and Yangxia Street Plot, both set to complete in 2025[19] - The company is planning to expand its market presence with multiple projects in Qingdao, including the Lan'an Central and Fairy Castle projects, both with a 70% interest and significant GFA under development[22] - The company is expanding its presence in Changsha with multiple projects, including the Binhe Road Project and the Datang Longfor Qingyunque Project, both expected to complete in 2024[19] - The company is actively expanding its market presence with multiple projects in cities like Tianjin, Wuhan, and Lanzhou[25] Project Development - The company has a total of 36 ongoing and planned projects in Chongqing, with a significant focus on residential developments, including Bright City and Meilin Meiyuan, expected to complete in 2028 and 2026 respectively[17] - The company has a total of 20 principal development properties with varying completion dates, including projects in Haikou, Hangzhou, and Nanjing, with expected completion dates ranging from 2024 to 2028[20] - The company is developing the E-sports Town New Project in Guiyang, with a completion date set for November 2024 and a 90% interest in the project[17] - The company has a diverse portfolio with projects in multiple cities, including Guangzhou and Hefei, indicating a robust growth strategy across different regions[19] - The company is focusing on residential developments, with a majority of projects categorized under residential use[23] Financial Management and Debt - As of the end of 2023, the Group's interest-bearing liabilities totaled RMB192.6 billion, a decrease of 7.4% compared to 2022[52] - The Group plans to optimize its debt structure by gradually reducing indebtedness to ensure financial sustainability[52] - The Group's consolidated borrowings amounted to RMB192.65 billion, with cash in hand of RMB60.42 billion[134] - The net debt to equity ratio was 55.9%, and the liabilities to asset ratio (excluding pre-sale deposits) was 60.4%[134] - The average borrowing cost was 4.24%, with fixed-rate debt accounting for 32% of total debt[138] Sustainability and ESG Initiatives - The company has set a target to reduce carbon emissions by 30% by 2025 as part of its sustainability strategy[4] - The Group's commitment to ESG initiatives is reflected in its inclusion in the Hang Seng Corporate Sustainability Index and an improved MSCI ESG rating of AA[65] - The company is committed to sustainable development, with a significant portion of its projects focused on residential and commercial spaces, enhancing community living[17] Corporate Governance - The Company is committed to achieving a high standard of corporate governance and has complied with applicable code provisions, except for specific deviations noted in the report[188] - The Board currently consists of nine directors, including four executive directors and four independent non-executive directors, ensuring a strong independence element in its composition[195] - The Company emphasizes the importance of corporate transparency and accountability in its governance practices[188] - The Board has reviewed the Group's Code of Conduct and assessed the risk management and internal control systems during the year[198] - The effectiveness of the Company's corporate governance policy was confirmed by the Board[198] Operational Performance - Same-store sales for opened malls increased by 30% year-on-year, with average daily foot traffic up by 28%[55] - The occupancy rate of malls recovered from 93% at the beginning of last year to 96%[55] - The total rental income from shopping malls was RMB 7.97 billion, representing a 22.7% decrease from RMB 10.28 billion in 2022[94] - The average daily foot traffic across all shopping malls was 2.63 million in 2023, indicating strong consumer engagement[95] - The Group's rental income, net of tax, from Investment Property Operation was RMB12.94 billion, representing an increase of 8.9% compared to the previous year[84]

Investment Rating - The report adjusts the investment rating to "Accumulate" from "Buy" [1][2] Core Views - The company maintains financial stability with light public debt pressure due in 2024, having a cash balance of 60.42 billion and a short-term debt repayment pressure that is manageable [2] - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit in 2023, with total revenue of 180.74 billion, down 27.9% year-on-year, and a core net profit of 11.35 billion, down 49.4% year-on-year [2][3] - The company continues to face sales pressure, focusing land acquisitions in core first and second-tier cities, with total sales amounting to 173.49 billion, a decrease of 13.9% year-on-year [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - As of the end of 2023, the company had interest-bearing liabilities of 192.65 billion, a decrease of 7.4% year-on-year, with a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 2.25 times [2] - The overall gross margin for the company was 16.9%, down 4.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 7.1%, down 2.6 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company’s land reserve stood at 45.39 million square meters, with a focus on higher-tier cities, and the land acquisition area decreased by 17.9% year-on-year [3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The report forecasts revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 171.52 billion, 164.15 billion, and 158.64 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of 12.47 billion, 12.34 billion, and 12.51 billion [2][4]

2024年4月1日 公司研究 开发业务结算规模下降，经营性业务利润补位 ——龙湖集团（0960.HK）动态跟踪 要点 买入（维持） 当 前价：11.06港元 事件：据克而瑞数据显示，龙湖集团24年1-3月实现全口径销售额237亿元。 点评：开发收入大幅下滑等因素带动业绩下降，销售短期承压，财务整体稳健。 作者 23年开发业务收入大幅减少，毛利率大幅下滑有望筑底：2023年，公司实现营 分析师：何缅南 业收入1807亿元，同比减少27.9%，主要因前期销售额减少导致开发业务营收 执业证书编号：S0930518060006 021-52523801 同比减少31.3%至1559亿元；公司综合毛利率为16.9%，同比降低4.2pct，其 hemiannan@ebscn.com 中开发业务毛利率为 11.0%，同比降低 6.9pct，主要因前期获取的低毛利项目 结算以及 23 年新增计提存货减值 10 亿元；公司归母净利润 128.5 亿元，同比 联系人：庄晓波 减少 47.3%，其中核心归母净利润为 113.5 亿元，同比减少 49.6%，同比降幅 021-52523416 zhuangxiaobo@ebscn.c ...

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/房地产/房地产 证券研究报告 龙湖集团（0960）公司年报点评 2024年03月26日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 恪守财务稳健安全，内生增长不断增强 股票数据 [Table_Summary] 3[T月ab25le日_S收t盘oc价kI（nf港o元] ） 10.66 投资要点： 52周股价波动（港元） 7.86-23.33 总股本股（百万股） 6767 营收利润有所下滑。公司2023年营业总收入1810.94亿元，同比下行27.8%。 总市值（亿港元） 721  相关研究 毛利为305.8亿元，同比下行42.3%，剔除公允价值变动的归母核心利润为 113.5亿元，同比下行49.6%。2023年公司毛利率16.9%，较2022年降低 [《Ta提b质le增_R效e确p保or安tI全nf，o]多航道业务协同发展》 4.3个百分点；核心税后利润率（剔除评估增值后）为8.7%，较2022年降 2023.08.24 低3.6个百分点；归母核心税后利润（核心权益后利润率）为6.3%，较2022 《龙湖集团（0960.HK）2022年年报点评： ...

股 票 研 究 [Table_industryInfo] 房地产 [ Table_Main[ 龙I Tnaf 湖bol]e 集_Ti 团tle] （ 0960） [评Tab级le_：Inv est] 增持 当前价格（港元）： 10.18 经营性收入稳健增长 2024.03.25 ——2月经营数据点评 海 [ 交Ta易bl数e_M据a rket] 外 谢皓宇(分析师) 黄可意(研究助理) 白淑媛(分析师) 52周内股价区间（港元） 7.92-24.85 公 010-83939826 010-83939815 021-38675923 当前股本（百万股） 6,767 当前市值（百万港元） 68,891 xiehaoyu@gtjas.com huangkeyi028691@gtjas.com baishuyuan@gtjas.com 司 证书编号 S0880518010002 S0880123070129 S0880518010004 （ [ Table_PicQuote] 52周内股价走势图 中 本报告导读： 公司发布 2 月经营数据，开发业务延续上月表现继续承压，拿地投资布局优势城 龙湖集团 恒生指数 国 市； ...