Seazen Group Limited 中期報告 INTERIM REPO R T 2025 分 享 喜 悅 不 負 情 懷 Seazen Group Limited 新城發展控股有限公司 2025 中期報告 INTERIM REPORT 目錄 CONTENTS | 公司資料 | 2 | | --- | --- | | Corporate Information | | | 主要物業明細 | 5 | | Breakdown of Major Properties | | | 管理層討論及分析 | 26 | | Management Discussion and Analysis | | | 其他資料 | 41 | | Other Information | | | 簡明合併中期財務報表 | | Condensed Consolidated Interim Financial Statements • 簡明合併財務狀況表 50 Condensed Consolidated Statement of Financial Position • 簡明合併損益表 52 Condensed Consolidated S ...

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Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate sector is experiencing significant downward pressure, with major property stocks declining sharply amid disappointing sales and investment data [1] Sales Performance - From January to August, the sales area of new commercial housing reached 573 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 4.7%, with the decline rate expanding by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous period [1] - In August alone, the sales area of commercial housing and residential properties fell by 10.6% and 9.7% year-on-year, respectively, with the decline rates increasing by 2.7 percentage points and narrowing by 2.6 percentage points compared to July [1] Investment Trends - National real estate development investment for the first eight months was approximately 6.03 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 12.9% [1] Market Outlook - Xiangcai Securities indicates that both the sales and investment sides of the real estate market are under considerable downward pressure, necessitating ongoing policy support to boost market demand [1] - Recent policy adjustments in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen in August and September, including relaxed purchase restrictions and optimized housing fund loan policies, have had some short-term positive effects on new and second-hand housing transactions, though the sustainability of these effects remains to be seen [1] - The upcoming policy window in September is highlighted as a potential opportunity for the real estate sector [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong real estate stocks continue to decline, with Country Garden down 8.7%, Jin Hui Holdings down 8%, and Zhongliang Holdings down 7% [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that from January to August, national real estate development investment reached 60,309 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.9%, with residential investment at 46,382 billion yuan, down 11.9% [1] - The funding for real estate development enterprises decreased by 8% year-on-year, with personal mortgage loans dropping by 10.5% [1] Group 2 - Analysts indicate that the current real estate data shows a comprehensive weakening, with both development investment and personal mortgage loans declining, confirming that the market is still in a deep adjustment period [1] - Recently, several key cities have introduced favorable policies to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, particularly in terms of easing purchase restrictions, with notable adjustments in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company New City Holdings is planning to issue a new USD bond soon, likely next week, to refinance an existing bond maturing on October 15, with a current outstanding amount of $250 million and a coupon rate of 4.625% [2][3]. Group 1: Bond Issuance - New City Holdings has successfully issued a USD bond earlier this year, marking it as the first private real estate company to break into the USD bond market in three years, with a previous issuance of $300 million in June [4]. - The upcoming bond issuance is significant as it represents the second USD bond for New City this year, indicating a strong signal in the current market environment [5]. - The timing of the bond issuance is strategic, coinciding with rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may positively influence market conditions [6]. Group 2: Financial Strategy - The company is prioritizing access to financing over the cost of financing, reflecting a broader industry trend where the ability to secure funds is critical for survival [8]. - New City Holdings has a diverse range of financing options, including bank loans, corporate bonds, and asset-backed securities, positioning it as a versatile player in the market [8]. - The establishment of a "Digital Asset Research Institute" suggests the company is exploring innovative financing methods, such as tokenizing real assets, which could transform the real estate sector into a more liquid market [9][10]. Group 3: Market Position and Future Outlook - The company's efforts to issue bonds while exploring blockchain technology demonstrate a strong desire to adapt and survive in a challenging market [12]. - Although the tokenization initiative is still in its early stages, it indicates New City's commitment to finding new sources of capital and enhancing its market position [11][12].

Core Insights - The Tianjin government is focusing on high-quality completion of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with significant developments in the Wuqing District's integration into the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei collaborative development [1] Group 1: Economic Performance - The Wuqing District's "one core, multiple points" industrial development framework has led to a general public budget revenue of 2.437 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.74% [3] - The total industrial output value for the first seven months of 2025 reached 60.577 billion yuan, growing by 9.83% [3] - Retail sales in the above-designated size reached 88.175 billion yuan, marking an 18.17% increase [3] Group 2: Project Development - Since 2024, a total of 1,849 projects have been established in Wuqing, including 402 projects from Beijing [3] - Key projects include the transformation of the Precision Medical Technology Industrial Park and the ongoing construction of the Financial Business District [4] Group 3: Innovation and Collaboration - Wuqing is building an ecosystem for technology transfer and innovation, with initiatives like the establishment of a national key laboratory and partnerships with universities [4] - The Tianjin Computing Power Trading Center has been launched, providing a one-stop service for enterprises and research institutions [4] Group 4: Future Plans - The district aims to deepen integration into the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei technology collaborative industrial cooperation and accelerate the development of intelligent technology and biomedicine industry clusters [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector [2][3][34] Core Viewpoints - The investment side remains weak, with a year-on-year decline of 12.9% in investment from January to August 2025, and a more significant drop of 19.5% in August alone [1][20] - The sales side is also experiencing a downturn, with a cumulative sales area decrease of 4.7% year-on-year from January to August 2025, and a sharper decline of 10.6% in August [21][34] - Funding sources are showing a narrowing decline, with total funding sources down 8.0% year-on-year from January to August 2025, but domestic loans have turned positive [35] Investment Analysis Summary Investment Side - From January to August 2025, total real estate development investment reached 603.09 billion yuan, down 12.9% year-on-year, with August alone seeing a 19.5% decline [3][20] - New construction area decreased by 19.5% year-on-year, while the completion area fell by 17.0% [20][21] - The report predicts a continued weak investment environment, with forecasts of a 11.0% decline in investment, 15.1% in new construction, and 20.0% in completions for 2025 [20] Sales Side - Cumulative sales area from January to August 2025 was 570 million square meters, down 4.7% year-on-year, with a 10.6% drop in August [21][34] - The total sales amount for the same period was 5.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a 7.3% decrease year-on-year, with August sales amounting to 544.9 billion yuan, down 14.0% [21][34] - The average selling price of commercial housing decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, with a slight increase in August compared to July [33][34] Funding Side - Total funding sources for real estate development enterprises amounted to 6.4 trillion yuan from January to August 2025, down 8.0% year-on-year [35] - Domestic loans showed a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, with August seeing a 1.1% rise [35] - The report indicates that while funding remains slightly tight, it is expected to improve gradually due to recent policy relaxations [35]

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of "RWA tokenization" in real estate financial products raises concerns about regulatory evasion and high-return promises, which should be approached with caution [1][13][15]. Group 1: RWA Tokenization Concept - "RWA tokenization" refers to the process of converting real-world assets into digital tokens on the blockchain, aimed at enhancing liquidity for traditionally illiquid assets like real estate [13][14]. - The market for RWA is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting it could reach $16 trillion by 2030 and $30 trillion by 2034 [14]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities and Risks - Promotional claims suggest that investing in RWA tokenized real estate could yield substantial returns, such as a 10x return on a $3,000 investment [2][3]. - However, experts warn that such high-return promises are often indicative of potential scams or illegal fundraising activities, especially in regions where RWA is not officially sanctioned [15][16]. Group 3: Regulatory Landscape - In mainland China, the regulatory environment remains cautious, with past announcements prohibiting unauthorized token issuance and fundraising activities [14][15]. - In contrast, Hong Kong has begun to explore RWA tokenization within a regulatory framework, indicating a more open approach to digital asset development [18][19]. Group 4: Global Trends and Case Studies - Internationally, there have been successful examples of RWA tokenization, such as in Dubai, where a real estate tokenization project sold out in under two minutes, attracting global investors [17]. - Japan is also advancing in this area, with financial institutions converting real estate into blockchain tokens under a legal framework that ensures the validity of ownership transfers [18].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant rise in Hong Kong real estate stocks, with Oceanwide Holdings leading the surge with an increase of over 15% [1] - According to CITIC Securities research, the overall performance of the real estate development industry is expected to remain under pressure in the first half of 2025, with total revenue declining by 15% [1] - The report indicates that the losses for real estate companies have expanded to 27 billion yuan due to increased impairment provisions and rising expense ratios, although the decline in gross profit margins has shown signs of improvement [1] Group 2 - The top 100 real estate companies experienced a 14% year-on-year decline in sales over the first eight months, but this decline is 16 percentage points narrower than the total decline for the previous year [1] - The land market has shown early signs of recovery, with the top 100 real estate companies collectively acquiring land worth 723.5 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 31% [1] - Major real estate firms are actively replenishing their core city inventories, indicating that sales volumes are nearing a bottom [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong real estate stocks experienced a significant rally, with major companies showing substantial gains, indicating a potential recovery in the sector despite ongoing challenges in the overall real estate market [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Oceanwide Holdings surged over 15%, leading the gains among real estate stocks [1] - Other notable performers included Ronshine China (+7.32%), China Jinmao (+5.23%), and Country Garden (+4.84%) [1] - Several companies, including Longfor Group, Agile Group, and CIFI Holdings, saw increases of nearly 4% [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - According to CITIC Securities, the overall performance of the real estate development industry is expected to remain under pressure in the first half of 2025, with total revenue projected to decline by 15% [1] - The industry is facing increased impairment provisions and rising expense ratios, leading to an expanded loss of 27 billion yuan in the first half [1] - However, the decline in gross profit margins is showing signs of improvement, with some quality real estate companies stabilizing their margins and profits [1] Group 3: Debt and Sales Trends - The debt repayment capacity of real estate companies is becoming more differentiated, with a trend towards deleveraging due to shrinking business scales, although leading firms maintain stable profitability [1] - The top 100 real estate companies reported a 14% year-on-year decline in sales over the first eight months, but this decline is narrowing compared to the previous year's total [1] - The land market is showing early signs of recovery, with the top 100 companies collectively acquiring land worth 723.5 billion yuan, a 31% increase year-on-year, indicating a proactive approach to replenishing core city inventories [1]