Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for major real estate companies, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3]. Core Insights - The real estate industry is entering a "quality era," with a recovery in the opening sales rate, which is a key indicator of market sentiment and profitability trends [2][11]. - The opening sales rate in key cities for the first three quarters of 2025 was 56%, an increase of 8 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024, and a 16 percentage point increase from Q3 2024 [2][26]. - The report highlights that the improvement in sales rates is driven by enhanced product quality and design, with average renovation costs in nine cities rising by 7% in the first three quarters of 2025 compared to 2024 [2][26]. Summary by Sections 1. Finding the Turning Point in the New Housing Market - The opening sales rate is identified as the most effective indicator for gauging market sentiment and predicting profitability trends [2][11]. - Historical data shows that the opening sales rate can effectively signal the start of a market rally [2][15]. 2. "Good Houses" Driving Sales Rate Improvement - The overall sales rate has shown a stable upward trend, with key cities experiencing a recovery from a low of 41% in Q3 2024 to 56% in the first three quarters of 2025 [2][26]. - The report emphasizes that the improvement in sales rates reflects genuine sales recovery rather than structural issues [2][26]. 3. City and Sector Analysis - There are significant differences in sales rates across different cities, with top-tier companies showing clear operational advantages [2][26]. - The report categorizes cities into three tiers based on their sales performance, indicating a narrowing range of high sales rate cities over the past decade [2][26]. 4. Performance and Characteristics of Real Estate Companies - Most major real estate companies have improved their sales rates in 2025, with leading firms like Poly, Jinmao, and China Overseas Development showing notable increases [2][26]. - The report suggests that companies with high land acquisition scores and strong sales performance are likely to perform well in 2026 [2][26]. 5. Key Company Valuations and Financial Analysis - The report provides detailed financial metrics for major companies, including Vanke, China Merchants Shekou, and Poly Developments, all rated as "Buy" with projected reasonable values indicating potential upside [3].

Market Overview - The market sentiment improved significantly due to favorable news from the Central Economic Work Conference, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.75% and returning to 26,000 points [1] - Major technology stocks collectively increased, with NetEase rising over 4%, Tencent and Alibaba up over 2%, and other tech companies like Xiaomi, Baidu, JD.com, and Kuaishou also seeing gains [1][3] Sector Performance - **Electric Power Equipment**: Strong performance with Dongfang Electric up over 13% and other companies like Harbin Electric and Shanghai Electric also showing significant gains [1][5] - **Financial Sector**: All major financial stocks, including China Pacific Insurance and CITIC Securities, saw increases, with HSBC reaching a market value of over HKD 2 trillion [1][8] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices surged, leading to active trading in gold stocks, with China Silver Group rising nearly 6% [1][6] - **Consumer Sector**: Restaurant stocks were active, with companies like Da Shi and Haidilao seeing notable increases, driven by policies aimed at boosting consumption [10] - **Real Estate**: Property stocks rose, with Longguang Group increasing over 4%, supported by policies to stabilize the real estate market [12] Individual Stock Highlights - **NetEase**: Stock price increased by 4.20% to HKD 218.40 [4] - **Dongfang Electric**: Stock price surged by 13.59% to HKD 24.90 [5] - **China Pacific Insurance**: Stock price rose by 5.68% to HKD 34.60 [9] - **China Silver Group**: Stock price increased by 5.80% to HKD 0.730 [7] - **Xuan Bamboo Bio**: Stock price increased by 25.19% to HKD 96.90, reaching a new high [16][19] Economic Policy Impact - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the importance of domestic demand and consumer spending, with plans to implement measures to boost consumption and stabilize the real estate market [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong real estate stocks experienced a significant rise following the Central Economic Work Conference, which emphasized stabilizing the real estate market and addressing key risks in the sector [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - Major real estate stocks such as Shimao Group, Ronshine China, and Vanke Enterprises saw increases of over 5%, while Sunac China rose by 4.5% [1]. - Other companies like Greentown China, Agile Group, Jin Hui Holdings, and Country Garden also reported gains exceeding 3% [1]. - The overall positive sentiment in the market is reflected in the performance of various real estate stocks listed in the table, with notable increases across the board [2]. Group 2: Policy Implications - The Central Economic Work Conference, held on December 10-11, outlined strategies to stabilize the real estate market, including city-specific policies to control supply and reduce inventory [1]. - The meeting also highlighted the importance of reforming the housing provident fund system and promoting the construction of quality housing [1]. - Measures to address local government debt risks were discussed, emphasizing proactive debt management and the prevention of new hidden debts [1].

Group 1 - Hong Kong property stocks experienced a significant rise, with Shimao Group, Ronshine China, and Vanke Enterprises increasing by over 5%, while Sunac China rose by 4.5% [1] - Other notable increases included Greentown China, Agile Group, Jinhui Holdings, and Country Garden, all rising by over 3%, and CIFI Holdings, China Jinmao, Longfor Group, and New City Development increasing by over 2% [1] Group 2 - The Central Economic Work Conference held from December 10 to 11 in Beijing emphasized the need to stabilize the real estate market, implementing city-specific policies to control supply, reduce inventory, and improve supply [1] - The conference also highlighted the importance of reforming the housing provident fund system and promoting the construction of quality housing [1] - Measures to actively and orderly resolve local government debt risks were discussed, including urging local governments to proactively manage debt and preventing the illegal addition of hidden debts [1]

Group 1 - New City Group completed the issuance of the third phase of medium-term notes for 2025, with a scale of 1.75 billion yuan and a term of 5 years at a coupon rate of 4% [2] - The company has issued a total of 3.65 billion yuan in medium-term notes this year, all backed by full guarantees from China Bond and rated AAA [2] - In the overseas market, New City Development issued $300 million in senior unsecured bonds in June, marking the first private real estate company to restart overseas capital market financing in three years [2] Group 2 - New City Group innovated financing paths by issuing a real estate asset-backed special plan based on the Shanghai Qingpu Wuyue Plaza, with a scale of 616 million yuan, setting records in the industry [3] - The company has established a mechanism for expansion, reserving a channel for public REITs, which lays a solid foundation for the long-term value release of held commercial assets [3] - The financing breakthroughs of New City Group reflect the continuous improvement of the financing environment for private real estate companies, driven by policy support and corporate efforts [3]

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market continued to show weakness, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.43% to 25,324.75 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.68%, and the National Enterprises Index down 0.51% [1] - Major technology stocks exhibited mixed performance, with NetEase and Bilibili down over 1%, Tencent down 1%, while Meituan rose over 1% [1] - Precious metals performed strongly, with silver reaching a historical high and gold-related stocks rising, including Lingbao Gold which increased nearly 10% [1] - Shipping stocks declined, with Pacific Basin Shipping down 9.5% and Orient Overseas International down 5% [1] - The photovoltaic sector also fell, with China Metallurgical Group down 4.3% and other companies like Xinyi Solar and Flat Glass down over 3% [1] Company News - Datang New Energy reported a cumulative power generation of approximately 31.6521 million MWh in the first 11 months, an increase of 10.58% year-on-year [2] - Jiangshan Holdings reported a total solar power generation of approximately 279.78 thousand MWh in the first 11 months, a decrease of 5.61% year-on-year [3] - New City Development reported a cumulative contract sales amount of approximately 17.917 billion yuan in the first 11 months, a decrease of 51.53% year-on-year [4] - Longfor Group achieved a total contract sales amount of 59.39 billion yuan in the first 11 months [5] - CIFI Holdings reported a cumulative contract sales amount of approximately 15.1 billion yuan in the first 11 months [6] Institutional Insights - Dongwu Securities indicated that the Hong Kong stock market is still in a left-side phase, with a rebound needing to wait, but mid-term positioning appears attractive [12] - Huaxia Fund noted that the previous irrational panic in the tech sector has eased, and the future outlook for AI development is pragmatic with clear commercialization paths [12] - China International Capital Corporation highlighted that the recent weakness in the Hong Kong market is due to multiple factors including a declining credit cycle and liquidity pressure [13] - Everbright Securities mentioned that after a rebound in 2025, the current Hang Seng Index P/E ratio is above the past five-year average, indicating overall valuation repair but still within a reasonable range [13]

Major Events - HASHKEY HLDGS (03887) plans to conduct an IPO from December 9 to December 12, aiming to globally offer 241 million shares and has secured cornerstone investors including UBS AM Singapore [1] - Tuda Tong (02665) is set to list on December 10 with a share price of HKD 10 [1] - Federated Pharmaceuticals (03933) has received approval from the National Medical Products Administration for its moxifloxacin hydrochloride eye drops [1] - Shou Cheng Holdings (00697) has attracted investments from Beijing Robotics Fund and Shou Bao Fund for its subsidiary Yun Shen Chu Technology [1] - Botai Vehicle Link (02889) has been selected by a leading OEM in the new energy vehicle sector as a supplier for the next-generation smart car cockpit project [1] - Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Holdings (01396) subsidiary Tiandun Data has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Huagong Technology (000988.SZ) [1] Operating Performance - China Life Insurance (02628) reported total premiums exceeding CNY 700 billion by the end of November [1] - Datang Renewable (01798) achieved a cumulative power generation of approximately 31.6521 million MWh in the first 11 months, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.58% [1] - Longfor Group (00960) recorded total contract sales of CNY 59.39 billion in the first 11 months [1] - China Jinmao (00817) reported a cumulative contracted sales amount of CNY 100.679 billion in the first 11 months, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.3% [1] - New Town Development (01030) reported a cumulative contract sales amount of approximately CNY 17.917 billion in the first 11 months, a year-on-year decrease of 51.53% [1] - CIFI Holdings Group (00884) achieved a cumulative contract sales amount of approximately CNY 15.1 billion in the first 11 months [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in contract sales and rental income for the year 2025, indicating potential challenges in the real estate market [1] Group 1: Contract Sales - In November 2025, the company achieved a contract sales amount of approximately RMB 1.448 billion, with a contract sales area of about 200,900 square meters [1] - Cumulatively, from January to November 2025, the total contract sales amount was approximately RMB 17.917 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 51.53%, with a total sales area of about 2,351,600 square meters [1] Group 2: Rental Income - As of November 2025, the company had a total of 178 rental properties, with a total construction area of approximately 16,381,800 square meters [1] - The rental income for November 2025 was approximately RMB 1.078 billion, while the commercial operating income was about RMB 1.155 billion (including tax rental income) [1] - Cumulatively, from January to November 2025, the total rental income was approximately RMB 11.990 billion, and the total commercial operating income was about RMB 12.852 billion (including tax rental income) [1]

格隆汇12月9日丨新城发展(01030.HK)公布，于2025年11月，集团实现合约销售金额约人民币14.48亿 元，合约销售面积约20.09万平方米。2025年1月至11月累计合同销售金额约人民币179.17亿元，累计销 售面积约235.16万平方米。 ...

2025年1月至11月累计租金收入约人民币119.90亿元，累计商业运营收入约人民币128.52亿元(即含税租 金收入)。 2025年1月至11月累计合同销售金额约人民币179.17亿元，同比减少51.53%，累计销售面积约235.16 万 平方米。 于2025年11月，本集团房地产出租物业共178个，总建筑面积约1638.18万平方米;2025年11月份租金收入 约人民币10.78亿元，商业运营收入约人民币11.55亿元(即含税租金收入)。 智通财经APP讯，新城发展(01030)发布公告，于2025年11月，本集团实现合约销售金额约人民币14.48 亿元，合约销售面积约 20.09万平方米。 ...