机构：国泰海通证券 研究员：涂力磊/谢皓宇/曾佳敏 本报告导读： 公司开发业务拖累逐步减轻，商业运营α 价值凸显，未来业务增长空间和方向清晰明确。看好 REITs政 策打开背景下，企业价值持续重估。 商业赛道能力突出，运营α 属性明显。公司于2008 年涉足商业地产，属于业内较早布局商业地产的企 业，为公司奠定"地产+商业"双轮驱动战略雏形。我们认为公司在商业赛道的竞争优势和α 属性主要体 现在：1）先发优势明显，竞争格局逐步优化；2）商业运营能力突出，经营效益行业前列；3）城市消 费潜力逐步释放，下沉市场换发新机。未来看，我们判断公司商业赛道长期增长逻辑主要在于通过头部 集中、存量改造、数字化运营以及证券化通道，持续扩大市场份额并用更低Cap Rate 进行资本化。 开发业务拖累逐步减轻，利润率底部确认。近年来，公司主动调整战略目标，由规模扩张转向加速去化 和保障竣工交付，合同销售金额在2019 年达到峰值后进入下行通道。公司自2024 年8 月起回收销售折 扣，2025 年上半年较2024 年提升240 元/平至10072 元/平，阶段性完成价格底部确认。我们判断随着高 折扣项目结转比例下降，后续毛利率具 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market saw a collective rise in property stocks, with Sunac China increasing by over 6%, Longfor Group and China Resources Land rising by over 5%, and Yuexiu Property increasing by over 4% [1] - Other notable increases include New City Development, China Overseas Development, Vanke, Greentown China, CIFI Holdings, and China Jinmao, all rising by over 3% [1] - The rise in property stocks is attributed to the substantial launch of a project in Shanghai aimed at acquiring second-hand housing for affordable rental housing, targeting new citizens, young people, university graduates, and various talent groups [1] Group 2 - Specific stock performance includes: - Sunac China (01918) up 6.14% to 1.210 with a market cap of 19.593 billion, down 7.63% year-to-date - Longfor Group (03380) up 5.93% to 1.430 with a market cap of 8.13 billion, down 20.11% year-to-date - China Resources Land (01109) up 5.21% to 31.880 with a market cap of 227.334 billion, up 17.21% year-to-date - Yuexiu Property (00123) up 4.68% to 4.700 with a market cap of 18.919 billion, up 18.69% year-to-date [2] - Other companies with notable performance include New City Development (up 3.92%), China Overseas Development (up 3.79%), and Vanke (up 3.37%) [2]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market saw a collective rise in property stocks on February 4, with notable increases including Sunac China up over 6%, Longfor Group and China Resources Land up over 5%, and Yuexiu Property up over 4% [1] - The Shanghai government has initiated a program to acquire second-hand housing for the purpose of providing affordable rental housing, targeting new citizens, young people, university graduates, and various talent groups [1] - The signing event for this initiative included cooperation agreements between the Shanghai branch of China Construction Bank and public rental housing companies in three districts, providing financial support for the acquisition work [1] Group 2 - Sunac China (01918) increased by 6.14% to a price of 1.210 with a total market value of 195.93 billion, showing a year-to-date decline of 7.63% [2] - Longfor Group (03380) rose by 5.93% to 1.430 with a market cap of 81.3 billion, reflecting a year-to-date drop of 20.11% [2] - China Resources Land (01109) saw a 5.21% increase to 31.880, with a market value of 2273.34 billion and a year-to-date gain of 17.21% [2] - Yuexiu Property (00123) increased by 4.68% to 4.700, with a market cap of 189.19 billion and a year-to-date rise of 18.69% [2] - New City Development (01030) rose by 3.92% to 2.650, with a market value of 187.24 billion and a year-to-date increase of 29.27% [2] - China Overseas Development (00688) increased by 3.79% to 14.520, with a market cap of 1589.2 billion and a year-to-date rise of 18.53% [2] - Vanke Enterprise (02202) saw a 3.37% increase to 3.680, with a market value of 439.05 billion and a year-to-date gain of 12.20% [2] - Greentown China (03900) rose by 3.27% to 11.370, with a market cap of 288.75 billion and a year-to-date increase of 34.24% [2] - CIFI Holdings (00884) increased by 3.19% to 0.097, with a market value of 16.61 billion and a year-to-date decline of 39.75% [2] - China Jinmao (00817) rose by 3.55% to 1.750, with a market cap of 236.47 billion and a year-to-date increase of 44.63% [2]

新城发展|公司深度—不止于开发，从平衡到引领【国泰海通地产】 新城发展公司深度一不止于开发，从平衡到引领【国泰海通地产】 公司开发业务拖累逐步减轻，商业运营α价值凸显，未来业务增长空间和方向清晰明确。 公司开发业务拖累逐步减轻，商业运营α价值凸显，未来业务增长空间和方向清晰明确。 看好REITs政策打开背景下，企业价值持续重估。 看好REITs政策打开背景下，企业价值持续重估。 预测26年PB为6.72元，给予0.5X，目标3.65港元。 预测26年PB为6.72元，给予0.5X，目标3.65港元。 未来看判断公司商业赛道长期增长逻辑主要在于通过头部集中、存量改造、数字化运营以及证券化通道，持续扩 大市 未来看判断公司商业赛道长期增长逻辑主要在于通过头部集中、存量改造、数字化运营以及证券化通道，持续扩 大市 新城发展|公司深度—不止于开发，从平衡到引领【国泰海通地产】 新城发展|公司深度一不止于开发，从平衡到引领【国泰海通地产】 公司开发业务拖累逐步减轻，商业运营α价值凸显，未来业务增长空间和方向清晰明确。 公司开发业务拖累逐步减轻，商业运营α价值凸显，未来业务增长空间和方向清晰明确。 看好REITs政策打开 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" for the company [7]. Core Insights - The company's development business drag is gradually alleviating, and the value of commercial operations is becoming more prominent, with clear future growth space and direction [1]. - The report is optimistic about the continuous revaluation of corporate value against the backdrop of REITs policy opening [1]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to decline from 119,464 million RMB in 2023 to 40,927 million RMB in 2027, reflecting a decrease of 65.8% over the period [3]. - Net profit is expected to decrease from 879 million RMB in 2023 to 805 million RMB in 2027, with a significant increase of 213.3% in 2024 followed by fluctuations in subsequent years [3]. - The company's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is forecasted to rise from 9.74 in 2023 to 18.25 in 2027, indicating a potential increase in valuation [3]. Market Data - The stock price has ranged between 1.69 and 2.71 HKD over the past 52 weeks, with a current market capitalization of 17,523 million HKD [4]. Business Strategy - The company has shifted its strategic focus from scale expansion to accelerating de-stocking and ensuring project delivery, confirming a bottom in profit margins [7]. - The commercial sector's operational capabilities are highlighted as a competitive advantage, with a focus on deep operational models and user engagement [7]. Cash Flow and Financing - The company has maintained stable cash flow generation capabilities, with monthly rental income projected at approximately 10.95 billion RMB in 2025, and a significant increase in the interest coverage ratio from 0.87 in 2020 to 4.42 in 1H25 [30][40]. - The company successfully issued various debt instruments, including a 3-year USD 300 million senior unsecured bond, indicating robust refinancing capabilities [30].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" for the company [7]. Core Insights - The company's development business drag is gradually alleviating, and the value of commercial operations is becoming more prominent, with clear future growth space and direction [1]. - The report highlights the continuous revaluation of corporate value against the backdrop of REITs policy opening [1]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to decline from 119,464 million RMB in 2023 to 40,927 million RMB in 2027, reflecting a decrease of 65.8% over the period [3]. - Net profit is expected to decrease from 879 million RMB in 2023 to 805 million RMB in 2027, with a significant increase of 213.3% in 2024 followed by fluctuations in subsequent years [3]. - The company's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is forecasted to rise from 9.74 in 2023 to 18.25 in 2027, while the price-to-book (PB) ratio is expected to increase from 0.18 to 0.30 over the same period [3]. Market Data - The stock price has ranged between 1.69 and 2.71 HKD over the past 52 weeks, with a current market capitalization of 17,523 million HKD [4]. Business Strategy and Operations - The company has shifted its strategic focus from scale expansion to accelerating de-stocking and ensuring project delivery, confirming a bottom in profit margins [7]. - The commercial sector has been a significant support for the company during macroeconomic fluctuations, with stable cash flow contributions from rental income [7][30]. - The company has established a strong competitive advantage in the commercial sector, with a focus on deep operational capabilities and optimizing the competitive landscape [7]. Future Projections - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 0.07, 0.09, and 0.11 RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a projected net asset value per share of 6.72 RMB in 2026 [7]. - The company is expected to maintain a robust cash flow generation capability, with a significant increase in the interest coverage ratio from 0.87 in 2020 to 4.42 in the first half of 2025 [7][30].

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，港股内房股再度走高。截至发稿，绿城中国(03900.HK)涨6.45%，报11.22港元；融创中国 (01918.HK)涨6.19%，报1.2港元；中国金茂(00817.HK)涨6.71%，报1.75港元；新城发展(01030.HK)涨 4.44%，报2.59港元。 ...

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2026年1月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 新城發展控股有限公司 呈交日期: 2026年2月2日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01030 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 10,000,000,000 | HKD | 0.001 HKD | | | 10,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | HKD | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 10,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.001 HKD | | 10,000,000 | 本月底法定/註冊股本總額： HKD 10 ...

Core Insights - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the real estate market, highlighting the significant debut of commercial real estate REITs, with the first batch of applications exceeding 32.1 billion RMB, accounting for 14% of the existing C-REITs market [5] - The cancellation of the "three red lines" policy marks a pivotal shift, indicating a return to orderly market development and improved financing channels for real estate companies [16][20] - The report notes a strong year-on-year increase in transaction volumes for both new and second-hand homes, with new home transactions in 50 cities up 3.3% week-on-week and 37.2% year-on-year [5][9] Group 1: Central Policies - The cancellation of the "three red lines" policy allows for a more market-oriented development of the real estate sector, which had previously constrained financing for weaker firms [16] - The central government is actively managing expectations and stabilizing the policy environment to facilitate a turning point in the real estate cycle [16] Group 2: Transaction Performance - New home transactions saw a week-on-week increase of 3.3% and a year-on-year increase of 37.2%, reflecting a recovery from last year's low base due to the Spring Festival [5][9] - Second-hand home transactions also showed significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 154.9%, driven by a favorable comparison to last year's figures [9] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the new home supply has improved, with a week-on-week increase of 34.5%, which is unusual before the Spring Festival, suggesting increased developer confidence [5] - The second-hand market remains robust, with a year-on-year increase in visits and transactions, indicating sustained demand [5] Group 4: Land Market Performance - The land market showed weaker performance, with total land sales in 300 cities amounting to 12.7 billion RMB, down 20% week-on-week and 69% year-on-year [5] - The report highlights a supply of 7.93 million square meters, with a land absorption rate of 51%, indicating a dual weakness in supply and demand [5] Group 5: Company Performance and Recommendations - The report suggests that companies with strong investment fundamentals and low valuations, such as China Jinmao and China Overseas, are leading the sector [5] - The property management sector also performed well, with a 2.6% increase, outperforming the Hang Seng Index [5] Group 6: C-REITs Overview - The C-REITs composite return index rose by 0.36%, with 41 out of 78 REITs showing gains, particularly in the renewable energy and highway sectors [5]

每经AI快讯，内房股继续走低。截至发稿，融信中国(03301.HK)跌6.21%，报0.136港元；新城发展 (01030.HK)跌6.13%，报2.45港元；融创中国(01918.HK)跌4.13%，报1.16港元。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...