Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that AIA Group (01299) has delivered results for the first half of the year that are broadly in line with expectations, highlighting growth prospects in mainland China despite a challenging interest rate environment [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - AIA's profit margin has expanded, even in a difficult interest rate environment [1] - The forecast for AIA's net profit for the fiscal year 2025 has been adjusted downwards by 7% [1] - The target price for AIA has been slightly increased from HKD 83 to HKD 84, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 2: Business Growth Prospects - AIA's management remains optimistic about growth prospects in mainland China due to low penetration rates and differentiated distribution capabilities [1] - The company has set ambitious growth targets for its new branches established in mainland China since 2019 [1] Group 3: Management Changes - The return of Du Jiaqi as non-executive chairman is expected to focus on improving board governance, strategy, and leadership development [1]

高盛发表报告指，友邦保险上半年业绩大致符合该行预期，亮点在于内地业务增长前景，尽管利率环境 逆风，但利润率仍有所扩张。管理层重申对内地业务的增长前景乐观。杜嘉祺回巢出任非执行主席后， 管理层预期他会专注改善董事会管治、策略及领导发展。经计及上半年业绩及反映近期投资市场表现 后，该行微调预测，将友邦2025财政年度纯利调低7%，目标价由83港元微升至84港元，重申"买入"评 级。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-bank financial sector [1] Core Insights - The non-bank financial sector is expected to continue experiencing high growth in performance, supported by a strengthening market [1] - The insurance sector's investment balance has surpassed 36 trillion yuan, with a continued increase in stock allocation [24][25] - The securities sector has seen a significant increase in trading volume, with various reforms being implemented by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [18][22] - The multi-financial sector is transitioning into a stable growth phase, with trust assets continuing to grow despite a decline in profits [30][34] Summary by Sections 1. Recent Performance of Non-Bank Financial Sub-Sectors - In the recent five trading days (August 18-22, 2025), only the multi-financial sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, rising by 6.40% [8] - Year-to-date, the multi-financial sector has increased by 17.78%, followed closely by the insurance sector at 17.68% [9] 2. Insights on Non-Bank Financial Sub-Sectors 2.1 Securities - Trading volume has significantly increased, with an average daily trading amount of 23,820 billion yuan in August, up 245.13% year-on-year [18] - The margin trading balance reached 21,468 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52.31% [18] - The average PB valuation for the securities industry is projected at 1.4x for 2025E, with recommendations for leading firms like CITIC Securities and Tonghuashun [22] 2.2 Insurance - The insurance sector's investment balance reached 36.23 trillion yuan, with an 8.9% increase since the beginning of the year [24] - The proportion of bonds in the investment portfolio has risen to 51.9%, while stocks account for 8.8% [24] - The insurance industry is characterized by a strong cyclical nature, with expectations for improved performance as the economy recovers [28] 2.3 Multi-Financial - The trust industry saw its asset scale grow to 29.56 trillion yuan, but profits declined significantly by 45.5% [30] - The futures market experienced a trading volume of 1.059 billion contracts in July, with a transaction value of 71.31 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 48.89% [35] - The report suggests that innovative risk management services will be a key growth area for the futures industry [38] 3. Industry Ranking and Key Company Recommendations - The recommended ranking for the non-bank financial sector is insurance > securities > other multi-financial [44] - Key companies recommended include China Ping An, New China Life, China Pacific Insurance, CITIC Securities, Tonghuashun, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings [44]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the insurance industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [20]. Core Insights - The insurance index rose by 1.4% this week, underperforming the broader market by 2.78 percentage points. Individual stock performances varied significantly, with ZhongAn up by 6.88% and AIA down by 2.8% [1]. - Aflac Insurance reported a tax-adjusted operating profit of $3.609 billion for H1 2025, a 12% increase per share, and a basic free surplus of $3.569 billion, up 10% per share [2]. - Sunshine Insurance reported a net profit of 3.389 billion yuan for H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.8% [2]. - The report highlights a divergence in premium growth among major insurers, with New China leading the industry with a 23.2% year-on-year increase in life insurance premiums for the first seven months of 2025 [3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The insurance index increased by 1.4%, while the broader market outperformed it by 2.78 percentage points. Notable stock performances included ZhongAn (+6.88%) and AIA (-2.8%) [1]. Premium Analysis - For the first seven months of 2025, major insurers reported varying premium growth rates. China Pacific's cumulative premium was 314.6 billion yuan, up 5.5% year-on-year, while New China reported a 23.2% increase in life insurance premiums [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the recent upward trend in the equity market, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3800, will benefit the insurance sector. The report anticipates a potential recovery in valuations for undervalued stocks, particularly New China, which has seen a year-to-date increase of 124.25% [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides price-to-earnings (PE) and price-to-book (PB) ratios for key companies, with China Pacific at 1.19x PB and New China at 2.41x PB, indicating a favorable investment outlook for these stocks [9][5].

Core Insights - AIA Group reported a post-tax operating profit of $3.61 billion for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7% at constant exchange rates and 6.6% at actual exchange rates [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders was $2.53 billion, showing a year-on-year decline of 23.5% [1] - New business value reached $2.84 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 14% at constant exchange rates and 15.6% at actual exchange rates [1] - The embedded value stood at $70.85 billion, up 2.6% from the beginning of the year [1] - The interim dividend per share was 49 Hong Kong cents, an increase of 10.1% year-on-year [1] New Business Value Growth - The new business value achieved a record high of $2.84 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 14% at constant exchange rates, driven by increased sales and improved profitability of new business [1] - The annualized new premium for the first half of 2025 was $4.94 billion, reflecting an 8.7% year-on-year increase [1] - The new business value margin recorded 57.7%, up 3.8 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from product structure optimization and repricing in the Thailand and mainland China markets [1] Regional Performance - The mainland China market reported new business value of $740 million, a year-on-year decrease of 5.0%, but showed a 10% increase at constant exchange rates when excluding economic assumption changes [2] - The Hong Kong market's new business value grew by 23.9% to $1.06 billion, maintaining its position as the largest contributor to the group's new business value [2] - The Southeast Asia market, particularly Thailand, saw a significant increase in new business value by 45.4% to $520 million, driven by regulatory changes and strategic partnerships [3] Distribution Channels - The agency channel's new business value increased by 19.4% to $2.22 billion, accounting for over 70% of the company's new business value [4] - The partner distribution channel also saw an 8.4% year-on-year increase in new business value to $800 million, with the bancassurance channel growing by 10% [4]

Core Viewpoint - AIA Group reported a 14% year-on-year increase in New Business Value (NBV) for H1 2025, reaching USD 2.838 billion, indicating strong growth driven by both volume and pricing factors [1][2] Financial Performance - The embedded value equity reached USD 73.7 billion, with a 5% increase per share [1] - After-tax operating profit was USD 3.609 billion, reflecting a 12% increase per share [1] - Basic free surplus generated was USD 3.569 billion, up 10% per share [1] - Interim dividend per share was HKD 0.49, a 10% increase year-on-year [1] Business Segments - The shift towards participating insurance has shown significant results, with NBV maintaining steady growth [1] - Traditional insurance accounted for 37% of the product mix (down 1 percentage point), while participating insurance rose to 43% (up 11 percentage points) [1] - Investment-linked insurance remained stable at 9% [1] Channel Performance - Agency channel NBV increased by 17% to USD 2.22 billion, contributing 78% of total NBV, with a margin increase of 4.4 percentage points to 72% [2] - Partner distribution NBV grew by 8% to USD 0.804 billion, with bank assurance channels up 10% [2] - The Thai market showed outstanding profitability, with NBV margin exceeding 100% [2][3] Regional Insights - AIA China experienced a slight decrease in NBV, down 4% to USD 0.743 billion, impacted by policy adjustments [2] - AIA Hong Kong saw strong new business growth, with NBV up 24% to USD 1.063 billion, contributing 37.5% to the group [3] - Southeast Asian markets showed varied performance, with Thailand leading at a 35% increase in NBV [3] Investment Performance - The net investment return rate was 4.2%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [4] - Total investment assets increased by 7.1% to USD 309.256 billion [4] - The investment allocation remained stable, with 54% in funds and convertible bonds, 25% in equities, and 18% in bonds [4] Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued growth in NBV, particularly in the Hong Kong and Thai markets [5] - Adjustments to EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 were made, now projected at USD 0.60, 0.71, and 0.84 respectively [5] - The estimated target price for 2025 is HKD 85.9, maintaining a P/EV valuation of 1.5x [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 89.80 per share, reflecting a 1.7x P/EV for 2025, supported by stable growth in NBV and EV, and an expected improvement in shareholder returns [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of USD 2.534 billion, a decrease of 24% year-on-year; however, the after-tax operating profit was USD 3.609 billion, representing a 6% increase [1] - The embedded value (EV) stood at USD 70.853 billion, up 2.6% from the end of the previous year, with a 4.2% contribution from new business value growth and a 4.2% contribution from stable expected returns [1] - The interim dividend for 2025 was set at HKD 0.49 per share, reflecting a 10% year-on-year increase [1] Group 2: New Business Value (NBV) Growth - The company reported a 14% year-on-year increase in NBV for H1 2025, with annualized new premiums rising by 8% and the value ratio improving by 3.4 percentage points to 57.7% [2] - In Hong Kong, NBV grew by 24%, driven by a 35% increase in agent channel NBV due to a 9% growth in active agents and a 30% increase in productivity [2] - In mainland China, NBV decreased by 4%, but if excluding the impact of economic assumptions, it would have increased by 10% [2] Group 3: Shareholder Returns - The operating profit after tax (OPAT) grew steadily, with a 6% increase in H1 2025, primarily due to stable CSM release and positive contributions from operational differences and risk adjustments [3] - The diluted after-tax operating profit per share was USD 0.3391, a 12% increase year-on-year, with the return on equity for shareholders rising by 0.9 percentage points to 16.2% [3] - The company completed a USD 1.6 billion share buyback on July 14, 2025, and returned USD 3.71 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks in H1 2025, with free surplus at USD 9.898 billion [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company benefited from rapid growth in its Hong Kong and Thailand operations, with a 14% year-on-year increase in NBV for the first half of the year, alongside growth in annualized new premiums and NBVM [1][2][4] Group 1: NBV Performance - The company's NBV for the first half of the year reached $2.838 billion, a 14% increase year-on-year, with annualized new premiums up 8% and NBVM increasing by 3.4 percentage points to 57.7% [2][3] - Growth in NBV was primarily driven by the Hong Kong and Thailand markets, while the mainland China business saw a decline due to adjustments in economic assumptions [2][3] - In Hong Kong, NBV increased by 24% to $1.063 billion, with both local customers and mainland visitors contributing to double-digit growth [2][3] - Thailand's NBV rose by 35% to $522 million, driven by a one-time sales boost before new co-payment regulations took effect in March 2025 [2][3] Group 2: Mainland China Business - The mainland China business experienced a 4% decline in NBV to $743 million, primarily due to changes in economic assumptions; however, excluding this impact, NBV grew by 10% [3] - New regions established since 2019 showed strong growth, with a 36% increase in NBV for these areas in the first half of the year [3] - The company aims for a compound annual growth rate of 40% in NBV for new regions from 2025 to 2030, with plans to open 1-2 new regions each year [3] Group 3: Operating Profit - The company reported a 6% year-on-year increase in after-tax operating profit to $3.609 billion, with earnings per share growing by 12% [4] - Strong business quality was reflected in the increase of CSM amortization and positive operating variances, which contributed to a 19% rise in insurance service performance [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 23.5% to $2.534 billion, primarily due to a 51.5% increase in financial expenses related to insurance contracts [4] Group 4: Shareholder Returns - The company declared an interim dividend of 49.00 Hong Kong cents per share, a 10% increase year-on-year, and completed a $1.6 billion share buyback on July 14 [5][6] - The free surplus generated in the first half of the year was $2.430 billion, reflecting a 13% year-on-year increase [5][6] - Since 2022, the company has returned $22.3 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, reducing the number of shares outstanding by 13% [6] Group 5: Future Growth Potential - The company maintains a high level of shareholder returns while anticipating future growth, with projected NBV of $5.449 billion, $5.941 billion, and $6.493 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6] - The company has set a target valuation of 1.55x PEV for 2025E, corresponding to a reasonable target price of HKD 85.3, maintaining a "buy" rating [6]

Market Overview - US stock indices collectively rose on Friday, with the Hang Seng Index ADR closing at 25,555.78 points, up 216.64 points or 0.85% compared to the Hong Kong close [1][2] Hang Seng Index ADR Details - The Hang Seng Index ADR had a closing price of 25,555.78, with a high of 25,596.02 and a low of 25,223.16 during the trading session [2] - The average price for the session was 25,409.59, with a trading volume of 49.472 million [2] Major Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - HSBC Holdings closed at HKD 102.647, up 1.33% from the Hong Kong close [3] - Tencent Holdings closed at HKD 608.57, reflecting a 1.43% increase compared to the Hong Kong close [3] - Alibaba Group (ADR) rose by 1.77%, closing at HKD 120.085 [3] - Other notable performers included Xiaomi Group (+1.65%), Meituan (+2.03%), and Hong Kong Exchanges (+1.60%) [3]

Core Points - The Shanghai Composite Index opened high and rose, with the CES300 index increasing by 1.5% to 5259.53 points, with a trading volume of 633.5 billion yuan [1] - The CES300 index has seen a 3.98% increase over the past month, an 8.01% increase over the past three months, and a year-to-date increase of 16.99% [1] - The CES300 index is designed to reflect the overall performance of eligible securities under the "Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect" and "Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect" [1] Index Holdings - The top ten holdings of the CES300 index include Tencent Holdings (8.77%), Alibaba-W (5.11%), HSBC Holdings (4.03%), Kweichow Moutai (2.27%), Xiaomi Group-W (2.17%), China Construction Bank (2.12%), CATL (1.87%), AIA Group (1.76%), Meituan-W (1.64%), and Ping An Insurance (1.61%) [2] - The market share of the CES300 index holdings is 51.07% from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, 29.35% from the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and 19.58% from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [2] - The industry composition of the CES300 index holdings includes Financials (29.42%), Consumer Discretionary (15.15%), Communication Services (14.38%), Information Technology (10.00%), Industrials (8.74%), Consumer Staples (6.06%), Health Care (5.19%), Materials (3.64%), Energy (2.77%), Utilities (2.63%), and Real Estate (2.02%) [2] Tracking Funds - Public funds tracking the CES300 index include Dachen CES300C and Dachen CES300A [3]