产能释放驱动 24Q4 收入修复，受益 AI 带动半导体需求回升 证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2025 年 02 月 21 日 华虹半导体（01347.HK） | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万美元） | 2286 | 2004 | 2257 | 2610 | 3125 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | -7.7 | -12.3 | 12.6 | 15.6 | 19.7 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 280 | 58 | 108 | 247 | 307 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | -37.8 | -79.2 | 85.2 | 129.5 | 24.4 | | ROE（%） | 4.4 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 3.8 | 4.5 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 0.16 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.14 | 0.18 | | P/E（倍） | 31.8 | 153.3 | 82.8 | 36.1 | 29.0 | | P/B（ ...

Summary of Huahong Semiconductor Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Huahong Semiconductor - **Industry**: Semiconductor Foundry Key Points and Arguments Industry and Market Dynamics - In 2024, Huahong Semiconductor experienced a decline in wafer foundry prices, but a gradual recovery is expected in the second half of the year, with high capacity utilization rates and improving gross margins approaching breakeven [2][3][4] - The company anticipates maintaining high capacity utilization in 2025, with new capacities from the Wuxi Phase II and Jiuchang plants gradually being released, aiming for a full capacity of 83,000 wafers by the end of 2027 [2][4] Financial Performance and Projections - The company faced challenges in 2024, particularly in the first half, with 8-inch and 12-inch wafers under significant price pressure, hitting a low point in Q2 but recovering in Q3 and Q4 [3] - The fourth quarter loss was primarily due to foreign exchange losses from the appreciation of the US dollar, with plans to convert some dollar debt to RMB to mitigate future volatility [3][16] - Wuxi plant's gross margin exceeds 30%, but high depreciation costs have prevented profitability; significant improvements in gross margin and profit are expected post-depreciation period [3][17] Research and Development Focus - The company will continue to invest heavily in R&D, adjusting technology nodes to meet market demands, particularly in high-value platforms and products [2][5] - The new CEO is expected to lead the company into new areas while adhering to a specialty process route, focusing on cost reduction and efficiency [2][5] Product and Capacity Allocation - The company plans to allocate capacity across various platforms, with approximately 20,000 to 25,000 wafers for memory, and around 20,000 wafers for logic, RF, and image sensors, with flexibility to adjust based on market demand [2][11] - The local market revenue share has approached 80%, with plans to enhance localization capabilities while actively expanding international markets for balanced growth [2][12][13] Market Outlook and Demand - Significant growth is expected in power management, RF, and embedded platforms in 2025, driven by increased demand from AI data centers [2][9][10] - The company is optimistic about the recovery of high-performance logic and RF sectors, with AI's growth providing substantial opportunities [9][10] Strategic Partnerships and Local for Local Strategy - The company has established trust with several international semiconductor firms and plans to provide 12-inch wafer production services to global clients [22][23] - Collaboration with STMicroelectronics has been ongoing for over 20 years, focusing on power semiconductors and MCUs [22] Challenges and Future Expectations - The semiconductor market is expected to face challenges, but the company remains confident in its ability to navigate these through strategic R&D and operational efficiency [26] - The automotive chip sector is seen as a growth area, currently representing 5% to 6% of total sales, with significant potential for expansion [25] Conclusion - Huahong Semiconductor is positioned for recovery and growth in 2025, with a focus on enhancing product offerings, optimizing capacity, and expanding market reach while managing costs effectively [26][27]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 36.00, representing a potential upside of 15.6% from the current price of HKD 31.15 [4]. Core Insights - The company is expected to improve operational efficiency driven by new production capacity, leading to both volume and price increases. The overall wafer average selling price (ASP) is projected to rise by 8% year-on-year in 2025, despite anticipated price competition in mature processes [6][4]. - The company plans to optimize its order structure to address differentiated demand, focusing on securing foundry needs from overseas manufacturers and expanding into AI-related products [6]. - Financial forecasts indicate a recovery in revenue and net profit, with projected revenues of USD 2.45 billion in 2025 and USD 3.44 billion in 2027, alongside net profits of USD 113.72 million and USD 382.16 million for the same years, respectively [6][14]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, the company reported total revenue of USD 2.29 billion, with a gross margin of 21.3% and a net profit of USD 280.03 million. The revenue is expected to decline by 7.7% in 2024 but rebound by 22.5% in 2025 [3][14]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve from 10.2% in 2024 to 20.5% by 2027, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency and cost management [3][14]. - The company’s market capitalization stands at HKD 53.54 billion, with a price-to-earnings ratio estimated at 21.1 for 2023, increasing to 117.5 in 2024 before stabilizing [4][3]. Operational Performance - The company’s production capacity utilization remains high, with a 12-inch capacity utilization rate of 100.9% and an 8-inch capacity utilization rate of 105.8% as of Q4 2024 [6]. - The company is accelerating the ramp-up of its new 12-inch production capacity in Wuxi, expected to reach a monthly capacity of 40,000 wafers by mid-2025 and 83,000 wafers by mid-2026 [6]. Shareholder Information - Major shareholders include Huahong Group (20.25%), Huaxin Investment (13.22%), and Shanghai United Investment (11.01%) [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 36.00, representing a potential upside of 15.6% from the current price of HKD 31.15 [4]. Core Views - The company is expected to improve operational efficiency driven by new capacity, leading to both volume and price increases. The overall wafer average selling price (ASP) is projected to rise by 8% year-on-year in 2025, despite anticipated price competition in the mature process segment [6][4]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in financial performance, with revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 set at USD 2.45 billion, USD 2.96 billion, and USD 3.44 billion respectively, alongside net profits of USD 113.72 million, USD 279.54 million, and USD 382.16 million [6][4]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, the company reported total revenue of USD 2.29 billion, with a gross margin of 21.3% and a net profit of USD 280.03 million. The revenue is expected to decline by 7.7% in 2024, followed by a recovery with a projected growth of 22.5% in 2025 [3][15]. - The gross margin is forecasted to improve from 10.2% in 2024 to 20.5% by 2027, reflecting operational improvements and cost management [3][15]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from USD 0.03 in 2024 to USD 0.22 in 2027, indicating a significant recovery in profitability [3][15]. Operational Insights - The company is focusing on optimizing its order structure to address differentiated demand across various segments, including embedded storage and power management [6]. - The production capacity utilization remains high, with a 12-inch capacity utilization rate of 100.9% and an 8-inch capacity utilization rate of 105.8% as of Q4 2024 [6]. - The company plans to accelerate the ramp-up of its new 12-inch capacity in Wuxi, aiming for a monthly capacity of 40,000 wafers by mid-2025 [6]. Market Position - The company is strategically positioned to capture demand from overseas manufacturers, including STMicroelectronics and Infineon, as they expand their operations in China [6]. - The report highlights the potential asset quality improvement and capacity increase following the planned injection of Shanghai Huahong Microelectronics into the company [6].

Group 1 - The semiconductor stocks in Hong Kong experienced a significant increase in the afternoon session, with Hua Hong Semiconductor rising over 20% [1] - SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation) also saw a rise of over 6% [1]

Group 1 - The semiconductor sector experienced significant gains on the 19th, with companies like Ruvi Optoelectronics hitting a 20% limit up and Qingyi Optoelectronics rising over 14% [1] - Gartner's recent forecast indicates that global semiconductor revenue will reach $626 billion in 2024, representing an 18.1% year-on-year growth [1] - The demand driven by AI is expected to push global semiconductor revenue to $705 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 12.6% [1] Group 2 - Shanghai Securities suggests that the electronic semiconductor industry may see a comprehensive recovery by 2025, with an accelerated clearing of the competitive landscape and a sustained recovery in industry profitability [1] - The report recommends focusing on semiconductor design stocks that are undervalued with real performance and low PE/PEG ratios, including Zhongke Lanyun and Juxin Technology for AIOT SoC chips, Meixin Sheng and Nanxin Technology for analog chips, and Fengcai Technology and Xinxiangwei for driver chips [1] - For semiconductor equipment and materials, attention is drawn to Huahai Chengke and Changhong Technology, while the folding machine supply chain highlights Tonglian Precision and Jintaiyang as key players [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of USD 539.2 million for Q4 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 18.4% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 2.4% [5] - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 11.4%, up 7.4 percentage points year-over-year but down 0.8 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [5] - The company experienced a loss of USD 25.2 million primarily due to foreign exchange losses [5] - The full-year revenue for 2024 was USD 2.004 billion, with a gross margin of 10.2% and a net profit attributable to shareholders of USD 58.11 million [5] - The company is expected to maintain a production capacity utilization rate close to 100% in 2024, with significant contributions from the Wuxi Fab 9 [9] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 16,232 million - 2024E: 14,899 million - 2025E: 17,954 million - 2026E: 27,850 million - Year-over-year growth rates are projected at -3.3% for 2023, -8.2% for 2024E, 20.5% for 2025E, and 55.1% for 2026E [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted as follows: - 2024E: 418 million - 2025E: 937 million - 2026E: 1,149 million - The gross margin is expected to improve from 11.5% in 2024E to 15.9% in 2026E [7] Operational Highlights - The average selling price (ASP) for wafers in Q4 2024 was USD 444 per piece, with a year-over-year increase of 27.5% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 1.3% [9] - The overall capacity utilization rate for Q4 2024 was 103.2%, with 8-inch capacity utilization at 105.8% and 12-inch at 100.9% [9] - The company is entering a construction phase for Fab 9, with a capital expenditure of USD 1.506 billion in Q4 2024 [9] - The company anticipates a stable revenue guidance for Q1 2025, with expected sales between USD 530 million and USD 550 million [9] Adjustments and Future Outlook - The profit forecast has been adjusted to reflect a net profit of 418 million for 2024, 937 million for 2025, and 1,149 million for 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 212, 95, and 77 [9] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating based on the company's asset-heavy nature in the wafer foundry segment and reasonable price-to-book ratios [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huahong Semiconductor [3][4] Core Views - Huahong Semiconductor's revenue growth has significantly improved, with a projected 18% year-on-year growth in Q4 2024 and a 17% growth forecast for Q1 2025 [3][4] - The company is expected to benefit from new capacity and a recovery in demand from downstream customers, particularly in the industrial and automotive sectors [3][4] - Despite increased depreciation from new capacity impacting gross margins, the current EV/EBITDA and P/B ratios are attractive at 6.9x and 0.6x respectively [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - Q4 2024 revenue was $539 million, a 2% increase quarter-on-quarter and an 18% increase year-on-year [4][12] - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 11.4%, with a forecasted gross margin of 10% for Q1 2025, slightly down from 12.2% in Q3 2024 [4][12] - The company expects to expand its capacity to 30,000-40,000 wafers per month by the end of the year, leading to an additional depreciation of approximately $170-180 million [4][12] Earnings Forecast Adjustments - The 2025 revenue forecast has been adjusted to $2.356 billion, reflecting an 18% year-on-year growth [6][14] - The projected net profit for 2025 is $140 million, a significant recovery from a loss in 2024 [6][14] - The basic earnings per share for 2025 is estimated at $0.08, with a gross margin forecast of 11.1% [6][14] Valuation Summary - The target price for Huahong Semiconductor is set at HKD 30.0, representing a potential upside of 17% [3][7] - For the A-share market, the target price is set at RMB 55.0, indicating a potential upside of 18% [3][8] - The report highlights that the current market valuation is below historical averages, suggesting potential for price appreciation [21][20]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4][12]. Core Insights - The core insight indicates that the demand for core products has bottomed out, and cost reduction and efficiency improvements are expected to drive margin recovery. The revenue for 2025 is projected to be $2.2 billion, representing an 11% year-over-year growth, driven by new customer integrations and a bottoming out of power products. The gross margin is anticipated to improve to 12.1% due to cost reduction strategies [4][5]. Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The financial summary shows the following projections: - Revenue (in million USD): 2023A: 2,286, 2024A: 2,004, 2025E: 2,233, 2026E: 2,708, 2027E: 3,344 - Year-over-Year Growth (YOY%): 2025E: 11.4%, 2026E: 21.3%, 2027E: 23.5% - Net Profit (in million USD): 2025E: 94, 2026E: 122, 2027E: 146 - Gross Margin (%): 2025E: 12.1%, 2026E: 11.9%, 2027E: 12.3% - P/E Ratios: 2025E: 53.1, 2026E: 40.8, 2027E: 34.2 - P/B Ratios: 2025E: 0.8, 2026E: 0.8, 2027E: 0.9 [8][4]. Performance Guidance - The company provided a revenue guidance for Q1 2025 of $5.3-5.5 billion, indicating a stable outlook. The gross margin guidance is set at 9%-11%, which is lower than market expectations due to depreciation from new plant capacity release. However, the company expects at least a 10% revenue growth for 2025 [6][5]. Market Position - The current stock price is HKD 26.3, with a market capitalization of HKD 452.01 billion. The stock has seen a 128.94% turnover rate over the past three months, indicating active trading [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4][12]. Core Insights - The core insight indicates that the demand for core products has bottomed out, and cost reduction and efficiency improvements are expected to drive margin recovery. The revenue for 2025 is projected to be $2.2 billion, representing an 11% year-over-year growth, driven by new customer integrations and a bottoming out of power products. The gross margin is anticipated to improve to 12.1% due to cost reduction strategies [4][5]. Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The financial summary shows the following projections: - Revenue (in million USD): 2023A: 2,286, 2024A: 2,004, 2025E: 2,233, 2026E: 2,708, 2027E: 3,344 - Year-over-Year Growth (YOY%): 2025E: 11.4%, 2026E: 21.3%, 2027E: 23.5% - Net Profit (in million USD): 2025E: 94, 2026E: 122, 2027E: 146 - Gross Margin (%): 2025E: 12.1%, 2026E: 11.9%, 2027E: 12.3% - P/E Ratios: 2025E: 53.1, 2026E: 40.8, 2027E: 34.2 - P/B Ratios: 2025E: 0.8, 2026E: 0.8, 2027E: 0.9 [8][4]. Performance Guidance - The company has provided a revenue guidance for Q1 2025 of $5.3-5.5 billion, indicating a stable outlook. The gross margin guidance is set at 9%-11%, which is lower than market expectations due to depreciation from new plant capacity [6][5]. Market Position - The current stock price is HKD 26.3, with a market capitalization of HKD 452.01 billion. The stock has seen a 128.94% turnover rate over the past three months, indicating active trading [4]. Future Profit Projections - The net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are $0.9 million, $1.2 million, and $1.5 million respectively, reflecting a growth of 62%, 30%, and 19% year-over-year [4].