证券研究报告 | 2025年06月15日 华虹半导体（01347.HK） 优于大市 国内外客户持续扩展，12 英寸放量规模稳步提升 1Q25 毛利率与收入符合指引，2Q25 预期保持平稳。公司发布未经审核业绩： 1Q25实现销售收入5.41 亿美元(YoY+17.6%，QoQ +0.33%)，符合指引（5.3-5.5 亿美元），毛利率为 9.2%(YoY +2.8pct，QoQ -2.2pct)，符合指引(9%-11%)， 由于第二条 12 英寸产线扩建所带来折旧增加等因素影响，1Q25 毛利率环比 回落。公司预计 2Q25 收入约 5.5-5.7 亿美元，毛利率 7%-9%，整体保持平稳。 产能利用率保持高位，有望迎来价格端稳步修复。截至 1Q25 末，公司月产 能折合 8 英寸为 413 千片，1Q25 付运晶圆折合 8 英寸为 1231 千片(YoY +20.0%，QoQ+1.5%)，产能利用率 102.7%(YoY+11.0pct，QoQ-0.5pct)保持稳 定。目前公司平均晶圆价格仍处历史地位，稼动率多季度保持满载，根据公 司投资者交流公告，随着下游需求稳步修复，公司预计价格有望逐步回升。 下游应 ...

恒指高开0.12%，报24191.32点；恒生科技指数涨0.22%。蔚来涨近3%，阿里巴巴、网易涨超1%；理想 骑车、华虹半导体跌超1%。 ...

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 注1：以上数据如有差异，系按照四舍五入保留两位小数所致。 注2：根据证监会2025年1月10日发布的《证券期货法律适用意见第19号一一＜上市公司收购管理办法＞ 第十三条、第十四条的适用意见》（以下简称"《法律适用意见》"）相关规定，投资者及其一致行动人 以其截至《法律适用意见》发布日拥有权益的股份比例，适用"刻度说"新规。截至2025年1月10日，鑫 芯香港持有公司港股股份数量为11,849.5939万股，占公司总股本的比例为6.90%。 ■ 华虹半导体有限公司 关于持股5%以上股东权益变动触及1%刻度的提示性公告 投资者鑫芯（香港）投资有限公司保证向本公司提供的信息真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性 陈述或重大遗漏。 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性依法承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 本公司于近日收到投资者鑫芯（香港）投资有限公司（以下简称"鑫芯香港"）通知，自2024年12月16日 至2025年6月9日，鑫芯香港在香港联合交易所通过集合竞价减持公司港股22,231,49 ...

一、主要业务 科目（亿元） 2025年Q1 2024年Q1 同比变动 营业收入 39.13 32.97 +18.66% 归母净利润 0.23 2.22 -89.73% 研发投入 4.77 3.48 +37.21% 经营活动现金流净额 3.61 4.44 -18.57% 华虹半导体有限公司作为中国领先的半导体制造企业，始终秉持"技术驱动、精益运营"的理念，专注于 特色工艺晶圆代工领域。公司以8英寸及12英寸晶圆生产线为核心，覆盖功率器件、嵌入式存储、模拟 与射频等关键技术，为全球客户提供从设计支持到量产的全流程服务。2025年第一季度，公司实现营业 收入39.13亿元（人民币，下同），同比增长18.66%，彰显其在半导体产业链中的关键地位。 二、2025年第一季度业绩表现 尽管面临行业周期性调整与国际供应链波动，华虹半导体仍保持稳健经营。以下为关键财务数据对比： 全产业链协同能力 公司与国内外龙头设计企业、终端厂商建立战略合作，形成"设计-代工-应用"闭环。2025年Q1，华虹半 导体新增5.5亿至5.7亿美元订单（约合人民币39.6-41.1亿元），反映客户对其供应链稳定性的认可。 国际化产能布局 依托上海、 ...

Group 1 - Semiconductor stocks in Hong Kong, particularly Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347), have shown a rebound after a four-day decline, with a current price increase of 4.18% to HKD 31.15 [1] - Despite the rebound, the stock price remains below the Bollinger Band midline (HKD 34.28) and is testing important support levels on the weekly chart (HKD 31.35) [1] - Technical indicators present mixed signals, with key support levels at HKD 29.4 and HKD 26.4, while resistance levels are at HKD 33.8 and HKD 35.9 [3] Group 2 - The market sentiment is low, with many investors expecting the stock price to drop to the range of HKD 29-20, while a minority believes it could rise to HKD 33 [3] - In the derivatives market, Citigroup's call option (28354) is highlighted as an attractive bullish choice with a strike price of HKD 36.36 and a leverage of 3 times [3] - Other notable call options include Huatai's (16555) with a 3.2 times leverage and a current increase of 9.52%, and JPMorgan's (29035) with a higher strike price of HKD 38.93 and a leverage of 3.47 times [3] Group 3 - Bullish and bearish certificates are available, with JPMorgan's bullish certificate (55757) offering a leverage of 7.3 times and a recovery price of HKD 29, suitable for aggressive investors [6] - Conversely, JPMorgan's bearish certificate (55767) provides a leverage of 5.1 times with a recovery price of HKD 35.5, appealing to investors looking to short while managing risk [6]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Tech Index turned positive in the late trading session [1] - Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347.HK) and Meituan (03690.HK) led the gains among constituent stocks [1]

Summary of Hua Hong Semiconductor Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Hua Hong Semiconductor - **Industry**: Semiconductor Manufacturing - **Market Position**: Second largest wafer foundry in mainland China, with both 8-inch and 12-inch production lines [doc id='13'][doc id='14'] Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance and Forecasts - **Stock Performance**: Hua Hong's stock price has increased by 46% year-to-date, reaching a valuation of 1.1 times the dynamic price-to-book ratio, which is within its historical range of 0.6-1.7 times [doc id='2'][doc id='14'] - **Revenue Growth**: Projected revenue growth of 14% for 2025, with a slight adjustment of 10% to 11% for 2026 due to faster capacity ramp-up [doc id='4'][doc id='27] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS forecast for 2025 has been reduced from $0.02 to $0.01, and for 2026 from $0.01 to -$0.002 [doc id='4'][doc id='27'] Margin and Profitability Concerns - **Gross Margin Decline**: Expected gross margin to decline significantly from 21.9% (2022-2024 average) to 8.3% in 2025 and 7.0% in 2026 due to increased depreciation costs from the expansion of the 12-inch foundry [doc id='3'][doc id='11'] - **Operating Losses**: Anticipated operating losses of $153 million in 2025 and $179 million in 2026, with operating margins of -6.7% and -7.0% respectively [doc id='27'] Competitive Landscape - **Market Position**: Hua Hong is smaller compared to competitors like SMIC, which has a projected ROE of 9.3% compared to Hua Hong's expected -0.3% [doc id='2'][doc id='14'] - **Pricing Pressure**: The wafer prices for Hua Hong's 55/90nm processes are $1,000, significantly lower than the industry average of $1,500, indicating competitive pressure in the mature process foundry segment [doc id='2'][doc id='14'] Expansion Plans - **Capacity Expansion**: The expansion of the second 12-inch foundry in Wuxi is crucial for increasing capacity but will lead to higher depreciation costs, impacting margins in the short term [doc id='3'][doc id='11] - **Long-term Outlook**: While the expansion is essential for future growth, the immediate impact on margins and profitability is concerning, especially in a weak wafer price environment [doc id='3'][doc id='11'] Valuation and Rating Changes - **Rating Downgrade**: The rating has been downgraded from Neutral to Sell, with a target price set at HK$20, reflecting concerns over future profitability and ROE [doc id='5][doc id='12'] - **Valuation Metrics**: Current valuation at 1.1 times price-to-book ratio is expected to decline, with a target based on a more conservative 0.7 times dynamic price-to-book ratio [doc id='5'] Additional Important Insights - **Industry Supply-Demand Dynamics**: The semiconductor industry may see a slight improvement in supply-demand balance starting in 2025, but competition in low-end MCU segments remains intense [doc id='10'] - **Long-term Risks**: The potential for overcapacity in mature process foundries is projected to reach 15% in 2025 and 17% in 2026, which could further pressure margins [doc id='10'] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding Hua Hong Semiconductor's financial outlook, competitive positioning, and strategic initiatives.

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of $541 million for Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.6%, primarily driven by increased wafer deliveries, but faced pressure on profitability due to rising R&D expenses and foreign exchange losses [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was $541 million, with a year-on-year increase of 17.6% and a quarter-on-quarter stability [1]. - Gross margin stood at 9.2%, close to the lower end of the previous guidance, with a quarter-on-quarter decline of 2.2 percentage points due to depreciation from new production lines [1]. - Shareholder profit was $4 million, down from $30 million in Q1 2024, falling short of expectations due to significant increases in R&D expenses and foreign exchange losses [1]. Group 2: Demand and Product Performance - In Q1 2025, different technology platforms showed varied performance, with year-on-year revenue growth rates of 9% for embedded storage, 38% for independent storage, 14% for power devices, 4% for analog and power management, and 35% for logic and RF [1]. - Power devices, which account for 30% of revenue, turned positive after five quarters of year-on-year decline, driven by increased demand for super junction and MOSFET products [1]. - Embedded storage, accounting for 24% of revenue, experienced a slowdown in growth this quarter [1]. Group 3: Capacity and Pricing Outlook - The second phase of the Wuxi 12-inch capacity ramp-up is progressing steadily, expected to reach a monthly capacity of 40,000 wafers by the end of 2025 and complete 83,000 wafers by mid-2026 [2]. - The overall capacity utilization rate in Q1 2025 was 102.7%, maintaining full load [2]. - The average selling price (ASP) of wafers decreased by 1% quarter-on-quarter to $419, but future price declines are expected to be limited, with new capacity expected to improve order structure [2]. Group 4: Future Projections and Ratings - The company adjusted its wafer foundry ASP forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to $444 and $465, respectively, indicating growth of 6% and 5% [2]. - The gross margin forecasts for 2025 and 2026 were adjusted to 10.5% and 15% due to anticipated depreciation peaks from new factories [2]. - The target price was raised to HKD 37, maintaining a buy rating, with projected revenues for 2025-2027 adjusted to $2.4 billion, $2.92 billion, and $3.37 billion, respectively [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huahong Semiconductor [1][30]. Core Views - The new capacity depreciation is squeezing profit margins, but localized production increases are expected [2][3]. - In Q1 2025, Huahong Semiconductor reported revenue of $541 million, a quarter-over-quarter increase of 0.3% and a year-over-year increase of 17.6% [2][6]. - The company achieved a net profit of $4 million, recovering from a net loss of $25 million in Q4 2024, although this represents a year-over-year decline of 88.2% [2][6]. - The quarterly wafer shipment volume reached 1.23 million equivalent eight-inch wafers, reflecting a quarter-over-quarter increase of 1.5% and a year-over-year increase of 20% [2][6]. - The capacity utilization rate was 102.7%, down 0.5 percentage points quarter-over-quarter but up 11 percentage points year-over-year [2][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, the company guided revenue between $530 million and $550 million, with a Bloomberg consensus estimate of $548 million [6]. - The gross margin was reported at 9.2%, down 2.2 percentage points quarter-over-quarter but up 2.8 percentage points year-over-year, with guidance set between 9% and 11% [6]. - The company anticipates Q2 2025 revenue to be between $550 million and $570 million, with a gross margin forecast of 7% to 9% [6]. - The report projects revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be $2.279 billion, $2.823 billion, and $3.192 billion respectively, with net profits of $92 million, $183 million, and $271 million respectively [6][8]. Valuation Metrics - The report assigns a target price of HKD 36.84 based on a price-to-book ratio of 1.25x for the estimated book value per share in 2026 [6][30]. - The price-to-earnings ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 79.29, 40.05, and 22.47 respectively [8][30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 43.0 HKD [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 541 million USD, a year-over-year increase of 17.6% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 0.3%, driven by increased wafer shipments [16][20]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 9.2%, up 2.8 percentage points year-over-year but down 2.2 percentage points quarter-over-quarter due to depreciation from new production lines [16][20]. - The company expects Q2 2025 revenue to be between 550 million and 570 million USD, with a gross margin guidance of 7% to 9% [21]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Q1 2025 revenue reached 541 million USD, with wafer shipments of 1.231 million pieces, reflecting a 20% year-over-year increase [16][20]. - The company anticipates a stable ASP (Average Selling Price) throughout the year, with potential for price increases in 12-inch products as capacity ramps up [3][5]. Capacity and Production - The production capacity utilization rate was 102.7% in Q1 2025, with the second 12-inch production line expected to ramp up steadily [2][21]. - The company plans to shorten ramp-up times and increase shipment volumes to stabilize gross margins [2]. Market Trends and Product Segments - The company is benefiting from local production trends accelerated by tariffs, particularly in the analog and power management segments, which saw a 34.8% year-over-year revenue increase [4][26]. - The 12-inch wafer segment generated 310 million USD in Q1 2025, a 40.8% year-over-year increase, while the 8-inch segment saw a decline [24][22]. Financial Forecasts - The report projects revenue growth of 8.2%, 13.1%, and 11.7% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profit estimates of 52 million, 82 million, and 97 million USD for the same years [18][19]. - The target price of 43.0 HKD is based on a 1.5x multiple of the 2025 estimated book value per share [5][29].