Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3] Core Views - The company's revenue remained stable with a slight decrease in profit, reporting operating income of 89.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 0.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 25.2 billion yuan, down 2.6% year-on-year [1][3] - Non-interest income showed strong growth, with net fee income increasing by 8.8% to 10.3 billion yuan, driven by the expansion of corporate and funding businesses [2][3] - The cost-to-income ratio improved, with business and management expenses decreasing by 4.6% to 50.6 billion yuan, contributing positively to net profit [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, the company achieved total assets of 17.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 8.3%, with deposits increasing by 9.2% to 16.0 trillion yuan and loans growing by 9.8% to 9.4 trillion yuan [1][2] - The weighted ROE for Q1 2025 was 11.3%, down 1.0 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The non-performing loan ratio at the end of Q1 2025 was 0.91%, slightly up from the beginning of the year [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for the company has been slightly adjusted, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 at 83.6 billion, 85.1 billion, and 86.9 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of -3.3%, 1.7%, and 2.2% [3][4] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 6.9, 6.8, and 6.6 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, and a PB ratio of 0.61, 0.57, and 0.54 respectively [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector in both Hong Kong and A-shares has experienced a collective decline after reaching continuous highs, with significant drops in major banks' stock prices and disappointing first-quarter earnings reports for 2025 [1][4][5]. Group 1: Stock Performance - The A-share banking sector index fell by 1.69%, with notable declines including Huaxia Bank down over 8%, and other banks like Beijing Bank, Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Agricultural Bank of China dropping more than 3% [1][2]. - In the Hong Kong market, Shengjing Bank fell over 5%, while China Merchants Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Postal Savings Bank of China dropped more than 4% [1][3]. Group 2: Earnings Reports - Multiple banks reported disappointing earnings for the first quarter of 2025, with Huaxia Bank's net profit at 5.063 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.04% [6][8]. - Other banks such as Guizhou Bank, Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank, and China Bank also reported declines in net profit, with decreases ranging from 2.90% to 14.04% [6][8]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts noted that the reduction in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) in 2024 suggests that banks may face pressure on asset yields in 2025, with expectations of further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [9]. - Despite some banks showing profit growth, the overall performance did not meet market expectations, leading to diminished investor confidence [8]. - Passive funds have increased their holdings in bank stocks, while active funds have reduced their exposure, indicating a shift in investment strategy [10][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a buy rating for the company’s A/H shares [5][8]. Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year decline in net profit and operating income for Q1 2025, with net profit down by 2.6% and operating income down by 0.1% [1]. - The company is experiencing pressure on its net interest margin, which decreased to 1.71%, while non-interest income showed strong growth of 14.8% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company is focusing on cost optimization, which is reflected in the reduction of its cost-to-income ratio to 56.7% [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, the company’s annualized ROE and ROA were 11.33% and 0.58%, respectively, both showing a decline compared to the previous year [1]. - The company’s total assets, loans, and deposits grew by 8.3%, 9.8%, and 9.2% year-on-year, respectively [2]. Credit and Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio was reported at 0.91%, with a provision coverage ratio of 266% [4]. - The company’s NPL generation rate increased to 0.88%, indicating a rise in asset quality concerns [4]. Capital and Valuation - The report estimates the company’s EPS for 2025 at 0.88 RMB, with a projected PB ratio of 0.70 for A shares and 0.64 for H shares [5]. - The target prices are set at 6.29 RMB for A shares and 6.17 HKD for H shares [8][9].

证券研究报告 邮储银行 (1658 HK/601658 CH) 息差边际下行，成本优化显效 | 华泰研究 | | | 季报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 4 月 | 30 日│中国内地/中国香港 | 国有大型银行 | 邮储银行于 4 月 29 日发布 2025 年一季报，25Q1 归母净利润、营业收入分 别同比-2.6%、-0.1%，1-3 月年化 ROE、ROA 分别同比-1.03pct、-0.06pct 至 11.33%、0.58%。公司五大差异化增长极持续显效，维持 A/H 股增持/ 买入评级。 信贷投放提速，息差边际下行 3 月末总资产、贷款、存款增速分别为+8.3%、+9.8%、+9.2%，较 24 年末 -0.3pct、+0.4pct、-0.3pct。 公司信贷投放提速，一季度贷款新增 4430 亿 元，投放结构中对公/零售/票据分别占比 82%/15%/3%。3 月末公司涉农贷 款余额 2.40 万亿元，普惠小微贷款余额 1.67 万亿元，占客户贷款总额比重 均居国有大行前列。净息差较 24A-16bp 至 1.71%，主要由于资产端仍有压 力 ...

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry in Liuzhou, Guangxi, is undergoing a transformation towards new energy vehicles, with financial institutions like Postal Savings Bank playing a crucial role in supporting this transition through innovative financial services [1][5]. Group 1: Financial Support and Services - Postal Savings Bank's Guangxi branch has focused on the automotive industry's transformation and the rapid development of the new energy vehicle market, providing tailored financial services to support the creation of a trillion-yuan automotive industry cluster in Liuzhou [1]. - As of March 2025, the bank has issued a total of 35.8 billion yuan in manufacturing loans, with a loan balance exceeding 25.7 billion yuan, including 10.336 billion yuan in medium and long-term loans and 9.872 billion yuan in credit loans [1]. - The bank has implemented measures to enhance service efficiency, such as optimizing review materials and adopting a one-level review and approval system, which shortens the business chain [1]. Group 2: Company Developments - Songsen Company, the only domestic brand automotive fuel pump manufacturer in Liuzhou, has expanded its customer base from a single supplier to include major automakers like Great Wall, Volkswagen, and SAIC, leading to a significant increase in its working capital needs [2][3]. - The company has received financial support from Postal Savings Bank, increasing its credit limit from 5 million yuan in 2022 to 45 million yuan in 2023, with plans to further increase it to 50 million yuan by 2025 [3]. - Songsen Company is focusing on both traditional fuel vehicle components and optimizing its production capacity by relocating its assembly operations from Shanghai to Liuzhou, creating a collaborative model of "R&D in Shanghai, manufacturing in Liuzhou" [2]. Group 3: New Energy Vehicle Production - Liuzhou Wuling New Energy Co., Ltd. has invested 2.469 billion yuan in its factory, which is designed to produce high-cost performance pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, with an annual production capacity of 200,000 units [4]. - The company has reported a sales target of over 14,000 units and revenue exceeding 1 billion yuan in 2024, with significant year-on-year growth in the first quarter of this year [4]. - Postal Savings Bank has been a key financial partner for Liuzhou Wuling New Energy, providing a credit line of 500 million yuan and supporting its initial R&D and production line upgrades with a loan of 250 million yuan [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of Postal Savings Bank, with current prices at 5.35 CNY and 4.85 HKD respectively [1][10]. Core Insights - Postal Savings Bank's Q1 2025 report shows stable revenue at 893.6 billion CNY, with a slight year-over-year decline of 0.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is 252.5 billion CNY, down 2.6% year-over-year [2][3]. - The bank's non-interest income has increased its contribution to total revenue, rising to 22.9%, up 4.9 percentage points from the previous year [3][4]. - The bank's loan and interest income growth rates are 9.8% and -3.8% respectively, indicating a shift towards non-interest income sources [3][4]. Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, the bank's net interest margin decreased to 1.71%, down 16 basis points from 2024, primarily due to lower asset yields [6][10]. - Non-interest income grew by 14.8% year-over-year, reaching 205.1 billion CNY, with significant contributions from fees and commissions [7][10]. - The bank's non-performing loan ratio remains low at 0.91%, with a slight increase from the previous year [8][10]. Asset and Liability Management - As of Q1 2025, the bank's interest-earning assets and loans grew by 8% and 9.8% year-over-year, respectively, with loans making up 56.5% of interest-earning assets [4][5]. - The bank's deposit growth was robust, with total deposits increasing by 9.2% year-over-year, reflecting strong core funding capabilities [5][10]. Capital Adequacy - The risk-weighted assets (RWA) increased by 6.9% year-over-year, with a decline in capital adequacy ratios, indicating higher capital consumption due to increased lending [9][10]. - The bank's core tier 1 capital ratio stood at 9.21%, down from the previous year, but is expected to improve following a planned capital increase of 130 billion CNY [9][10]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report projects a slight decline in earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027, adjusting the forecast to 0.74, 0.75, and 0.78 CNY respectively [10][11]. - The current price-to-book (P/B) ratios for A-shares and H-shares are estimated at 0.7 and 0.55 respectively for 2025 [10][11].

Group 1 - The banking sector in China is experiencing a decline, with several banks showing significant drops in their stock prices [1] - Shengjing Bank (02066.HK) has seen a decline of over 8% [1] - Postal Savings Bank (01658.HK) and China Merchants Bank (03968.HK) have both dropped over 5% [1] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (01398.HK), China Construction Bank (00939.HK), and Agricultural Bank of China (601288.SH) have all decreased by more than 4% [1]

Group 1 - The stock prices of several banks have experienced significant declines, with Shengjing Bank down by 8.57%, China Merchants Bank down by 3.60%, Postal Savings Bank down by 3.51%, Industrial and Commercial Bank down by 3.47%, and China Construction Bank down by 2.86% [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Postal Savings Bank of China (601658) with a target price of 6.24 CNY, compared to the current price of 5.35 CNY [4][8]. Core Views - The bank's liabilities continue to show advantages, while retail business is expected to recover gradually. The first quarter of 2025 saw a slight decline in operating income by 0.07% year-on-year, and a decrease in net profit by 2.62% year-on-year. The non-performing loan ratio increased slightly to 0.91%, and the provision coverage ratio decreased by 20 percentage points to 266% [2][3][8]. Financial Performance Summary - **Operating Income and Profit**: In Q1 2025, the bank achieved operating income of 893.63 billion CNY, with a year-on-year decline of 0.07%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 252.46 billion CNY, down 2.62% year-on-year [2][3]. - **Loan and Deposit Growth**: The bank's loans and deposits grew by 9.8% and 9.2% year-on-year, respectively. Corporate loans increased by 15.2%, while retail loans grew by 4.3% [8]. - **Interest Margin**: The net interest margin decreased by 10 basis points to 1.69% in Q1 2025, primarily due to a significant drop in asset yield [8]. - **Asset Quality**: The non-performing loan ratio rose to 0.91%, with an annualized net generation rate of 0.94%. The bank is expected to maintain manageable levels of retail loan non-performing rates as the economy recovers [8]. Financial Forecast Summary - **Revenue and Profit Growth**: The forecast for revenue growth from 2025 to 2027 is 1.0%, 3.6%, and 6.4%, respectively. Net profit growth is projected at 1.1%, 2.0%, and 5.0% for the same period [8][9]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The current valuation is at 0.6 times the 2025 price-to-book ratio, with a target price set at 6.24 CNY based on a projected price-to-book ratio of 0.7 times [4][8].

Core Viewpoint - The 27th China Beijing International Science and Technology Industry Expo will be held from May 8 to 11, 2025, showcasing Postal Savings Bank of China's Beijing branch's innovations in financial technology, including HarmonyOS ecosystem experiences, MR metaverse, digital human interaction, and smart cloud printing [1] Group 1: Digital Financial Infrastructure - The Postal Savings Bank of China's Beijing branch will focus on "Technology Finance" at the expo, highlighting green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance, while integrating HarmonyOS elements [2] - Visitors will experience various interactive projects, including personalized laser engraving services, MR metaverse explorations of financial products, and digital human interaction machines for financial consulting [2][3] Group 2: Innovation and Service Efficiency - The bank's innovations leverage HarmonyOS for seamless interconnectivity across devices, enhancing customer service experiences and operational efficiency [3] - In January 2025, the bank launched the HarmonyOS ecological bank, enabling a closed-loop service scenario with multiple devices for various banking functions [3] Group 3: Comprehensive Service System - The bank is focusing on the financial needs of technology enterprises, developing an evaluation system for innovation capabilities and enhancing its analysis methods to support high-growth tech companies [4] - The "Easy Enterprise" product offers a one-stop solution for small and medium-sized enterprises, integrating financial functions into various management applications [4] Group 4: Diverse Financial Products - The Uyi Chuang and Sci-Tech Loan product systems cater to different financing needs, with Uyi Chuang offering a range of services for capital operation and wealth management [5] - The Sci-Tech Loan addresses financing challenges for tech startups, while the Small Micro Easy Loan provides flexible online and offline financing options without requiring financial statements [5] Group 5: Commitment to Innovation - The bank's leadership emphasizes a commitment to innovation and optimizing service models, aiming to integrate technology and finance to support high-quality economic development [5]