Core Viewpoint - Citigroup's research report indicates that Tencent Music's Q3 revenue and profit exceeded expectations, with a positive outlook for Q4, despite a decline in stock price post-earnings due to investor caution stemming from competition with ByteDance [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Tencent Music's Q3 revenue and profit surpassed market expectations [1] - The company is expected to maintain a positive outlook for Q4 [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - The decline in Tencent Music's stock price is attributed to investor risk aversion and caution regarding competition from ByteDance [1] - Citigroup views the recent sell-off as unfounded and sees it as an opportunity for further investment [1] Group 3: Strategic Positioning - Tencent Music is gradually transforming its operational knowledge in the music industry into enhanced capabilities for a comprehensive music ecosystem [1] - The company aims to diversify user streaming experiences and increase revenue through multiple monetization channels, fostering artists and music talent [1] Group 4: Competitive Advantage - Tencent Music attracts a different quality of users compared to its peers [1] - The integration of Tencent's gaming and film IPs enhances the company's value proposition for users and artists [1] - Citigroup reaffirms a "Buy" rating and maintains a target price of $29 for the stock [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Music is responding to competitive pressure from ByteDance's "Soda Music" by expanding its premium membership offerings and enhancing its offline concert business to create new growth engines [1][4]. Group 1: Strategic Response - Citi's report highlights that the market's sell-off of TME shares is an overreaction to competitive concerns, presenting a buying opportunity [3][4]. - TME's strategy focuses on a multi-tiered membership system designed to enhance user value and retention rather than engaging in a price war [4][5]. Group 2: Membership and Revenue Growth - The multi-tiered membership service, including SVIP memberships, is expected to drive growth in paying users and ARPPU (Average Revenue Per Paying User) through high-quality music content and exclusive concert privileges [5][6]. - TME aims to provide more exclusive benefits and products based on fan economy, which will help boost SVIP subscriptions [7]. Group 3: Offline Concert Strategy - TME is heavily investing in large-scale tours and proprietary IP events, which not only generate new revenue streams but also deepen collaborations with artists, creating an online-offline ecosystem [6][8]. - The concert business enhances user experience and fosters stronger relationships within the music ecosystem [7]. Group 4: Competitive Advantages - TME's management expresses confidence in its core advantages, including a rich music content library, extensive user asset management experience, and high penetration across multiple platforms [9]. - The synergy with Tencent's gaming and video IPs provides a unique competitive edge that is difficult for rivals to replicate [9]. Group 5: Financial Outlook - TME's projected financial performance shows a net profit increase from RMB 6,223 million in 2023 to RMB 12,490 million by 2027, with a diluted EPS growth from RMB 3.925 to an estimated RMB 7.999 [10]. - Despite potential short-term impacts on gross margins from the concert business, the long-term strategic investments in fan economy and ecosystem are expected to drive sustainable growth [10].

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Music is expanding its premium membership and enhancing offline concert business to build new growth engines in response to competition from ByteDance's "Soda Music" [1][4] Group 1: Strategic Response to Competition - Citi's report highlights that despite TME's Q3 performance exceeding expectations, market concerns over competition have pressured its stock price, leading investors to adopt a risk-averse stance [1][3] - The report argues that the sell-off is "unfounded" and presents a great buying opportunity for investors [3] Group 2: Dual-Driven Growth Strategy - TME's strategy is not merely a price war but involves a well-designed multi-tier membership system aimed at enhancing user value and stickiness, catering to different user groups from free to premium memberships [4] - The multi-tier membership service and SVIP membership are expected to drive growth in paying users and ARPPU (Average Revenue Per Paying User) through high-quality music content, exclusive concert privileges, and optimized audio quality [4] Group 3: Offline Concerts as a Strategic Focus - TME is heavily investing in large-scale tours and proprietary IP events, which not only create new revenue streams but also deepen collaborations with artists and provide exclusive benefits for paying members, forming an online-offline ecosystem [5] - The concert business helps establish experiences and fosters deeper relationships within the ecosystem, promoting SVIP subscription growth through fan economy-based products [5] Group 4: Core Competitive Advantages - TME's management expresses confidence in its core advantages, including a rich music content library, extensive user asset management experience, and high penetration across multiple platforms [6] - The synergy with Tencent's gaming and video IPs is a unique advantage that competitors find hard to replicate, creating a solid competitive moat [6] Group 5: Financial Projections - TME's projected net profit and diluted EPS show a growth trajectory, with net profit expected to rise from RMB 6.223 billion in 2023 to RMB 12.490 billion by 2027, and diluted EPS increasing from RMB 3.925 to RMB 7.999 over the same period [7] - Citi reaffirms a "buy" rating for TME, indicating that the company is transitioning towards a more robust social music ecosystem, with strategic investments in fan economy and ecosystem expected to drive sustainable growth in the long term [7]

Core Viewpoint - Daiwa's research report indicates that Tencent Music's Q3 performance was robust, with revenue and earnings per share exceeding market expectations by 3% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Revenue surprise primarily driven by strong growth in non-subscription music revenue, which increased by 51% year-on-year [1] - The company's ADR decline reflects market concerns regarding competitive landscape and lower-than-expected gross margin guidance for 2026 [1] Group 2: Analyst Ratings and Forecasts - Daiwa maintains an "Outperform" rating on Tencent Music, with the target price reduced from HKD 106 to HKD 91 [1] - Earnings per share forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been lowered by 9% to 14% due to a decrease in subscription revenue [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nomura's report indicates that Tencent Music's Q3 performance exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year revenue growth of 21%, reaching 8.5 billion yuan, surpassing market and Nomura's forecasts [1] Revenue Performance - Non-subscription online music service revenue grew by 51% year-on-year, exceeding Nomura's forecast of 35% [1] - Overall revenue reached 8.5 billion yuan, which is higher than market predictions [1] Profitability Metrics - Gross margin improved by 0.9 percentage points to 44% year-on-year [1] - Non-IFRS operating profit margin increased by 2.8 percentage points to 31% due to operational leverage [1] - Non-IFRS net profit grew by 33% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations by 4% [1] Analyst Rating - Nomura has adjusted Tencent Music's U.S. stock target price from $30 to $26 while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - Jianyin International expresses optimism about Tencent Music's leadership position and sustainable profitability, attributing this to its differentiated business model, quality content, user base, and diversified revenue sources [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Tencent Music's Q3 2025 performance slightly exceeded expectations, with total revenue and Non-GAAP net profit surpassing institutional forecasts by 3% and 4% respectively, driven by growth in non-subscription music service revenue [1] - For Q4 2025, revenue is expected to increase by 12.6% year-on-year to 8.4 billion RMB, with a net addition of 1.3 million music subscription users, bringing the total to 127 million [1] - Average revenue per paying user (ARPPU) is projected to rise by 9.9% year-on-year to 12.2 RMB, with gross margin expected to increase by 1.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 45.1% [1] Group 2: Investment Outlook - Jianyin International maintains a "Outperform" rating for Tencent Music, setting a target price of 105.7 HKD, suggesting that the recent stock price pullback presents a good buying opportunity [1] - The report highlights that Q4 is typically a low season for concerts but a peak season for advertising, which may positively impact revenue [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Music's Q3 financial performance was strong, with revenue and profit exceeding expectations, indicating an increased attractiveness as a preferred music entertainment service provider [1] Financial Performance - Revenue growth is shifting from subscription services to non-subscription services, necessitating larger-than-expected investments [1] - The adjusted profit forecast for Tencent Music in 2026 has been lowered by 7% [1] Target Price Adjustments - The target price for Tencent Music's US stock has been reduced from $28.5 to $23.7 [1] - The target price for its Hong Kong stock has been adjusted from HKD 110.7 to HKD 92.1 [1] Rating - The rating remains "Outperform" despite the adjustments [1]

Core Viewpoint - Jianyin International expresses a positive outlook on Tencent Music (01698), highlighting its leadership position and sustainable profitability due to its differentiated business model, quality content, user base, and diversified revenue streams [1] Financial Performance - Tencent Music's Q3 2025 results slightly exceeded expectations, with total revenue and Non-GAAP net profit surpassing institutional forecasts by 3% and 4% respectively, driven by growth in non-subscription music service revenue [1] - For Q4 2025, revenue is expected to increase by 12.6% year-on-year to 8.4 billion RMB, with a net addition of 1.3 million music subscription users, bringing the total to 127 million [1] - Average revenue per paying user (ARPPU) is projected to rise by 9.9% year-on-year to 12.2 RMB, with gross margin expected to increase by 1.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 45.1% [1] - Non-GAAP net profit is anticipated to grow by 10% year-on-year to 2.5 billion RMB [1] Investment Recommendation - Jianyin International maintains a "Outperform" rating with a target price of 105.7 HKD, suggesting that the recent stock price pullback presents a good buying opportunity [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Music is focusing on profitability over user growth, as evidenced by its financial performance in Q3, which shows significant revenue and profit growth despite a decline in active users [1][2]. Financial Performance - Tencent Music's revenue in Q3 increased by 20.6% year-on-year to 8.46 billion yuan, while adjusted net profit rose by 32.6% to 2.405 billion yuan [1]. - Online music revenue grew by 27.2% to 6.97 billion yuan, accounting for 82.3% of total revenue, an increase of 4.2 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - Subscription revenue from Tencent Music's members increased by 17.2% to 4.5 billion yuan, with the number of paying users growing by 5.6% to 126 million [1]. User Engagement - The monthly active users (MAU) for Tencent Music's online music platform decreased by 4.3% year-on-year to 551 million [1]. - The growth rate of paying users has slowed, with a 6.3% increase in Q2 compared to previous periods [1]. Non-Subscription Revenue Growth - Tencent Music's non-subscription revenue grew by over 50% year-on-year to 2.47 billion yuan in Q3 [2]. - The company achieved significant growth in offline performances, hosting 14 sold-out shows for G-DRAGON across six cities, attracting over 150,000 attendees [2]. Strategic Initiatives - Tencent Music plans to expand its performance business and introduce more headliner events to enhance user engagement and drive SVIP subscription growth [2]. - The company is also expanding its artist roster by introducing 15 new Chinese label artists to attract a broader audience [2].

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Music is focusing on revenue generation over user traffic, as evidenced by its financial performance in Q3, which shows significant growth in revenue and adjusted net profit [1][3]. Financial Performance - In Q3, Tencent Music's revenue increased by 20.6% year-on-year to 8.46 billion yuan, while adjusted net profit rose by 32.6% to 2.405 billion yuan [1]. - Online music revenue grew by 27.2% to 6.97 billion yuan, accounting for 82.3% of total revenue, an increase of 4.2 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - Subscription revenue from online music increased by 17.2% to 4.5 billion yuan, with the number of paying users growing by 5.6% to 126 million [1][2]. User Engagement and Challenges - Despite revenue growth, the monthly active users (MAU) for online music declined by 4.3% year-on-year to 551 million [1]. - The growth rate of paying users has slowed, with a 6.3% increase noted in Q2 [2]. Strategic Initiatives - Tencent Music is actively developing non-subscription revenue streams, which grew over 50% year-on-year to 2.47 billion yuan in Q3 [3]. - The company has seen significant growth in live performances, hosting 14 sold-out shows for G-DRAGON across six cities, attracting over 150,000 attendees [3]. - Plans to expand the live performance business and introduce more headliner events are in place, aiming to enhance user engagement and drive SVIP subscription growth [3]. Market Reaction - On November 14, Tencent Music's stock closed at 75.6 HKD, reflecting a decline of 10.69% [5].