Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Music [4] Core Views - The online music revenue is expected to continue increasing due to the growth in paid users and ARPPU, leading to an overall improvement in profit margins. The forecasted net profit for the years 2025 to 2027 is 10.41 billion, 10.14 billion, and 11.16 billion RMB respectively, with a target price set at 94.86 HKD [2][4] Financial Performance Summary - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at 27.75 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of -2.1%. This is expected to rise to 31.45 billion RMB in 2025, reflecting a growth of 10.7% [3][9] - Operating profit is forecasted to increase significantly from 4.78 billion RMB in 2023 to 9.44 billion RMB in 2025, marking a growth of 28.5% [3][9] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 4.92 billion RMB in 2023 to 10.41 billion RMB in 2025, representing a substantial increase of 56.7% [3][9] - The gross margin is anticipated to improve from 35.3% in 2023 to 45.6% in 2025, while the net margin is expected to rise from 17.7% to 33.1% over the same period [3][9] Revenue Breakdown - Online music revenue for Q1 is reported at 5.8 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 15.9%. The forecast for Q2 is 6.43 billion RMB, with an expected growth of 18.6% [7] - Social entertainment revenue for Q1 is 1.55 billion RMB, down 11.9% year-on-year, with expectations for Q2 to remain flat [7] Market Position and Valuation - The target price of 94.86 HKD corresponds to a P/E ratio of 27 times for 2026, based on comparable company analysis [2][8] - The report highlights a strong performance relative to the Hang Seng Index, with a 1-week absolute performance of 13.51% and a 1-month performance of 30.05% [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong Q1 2025 performance with revenue of 7.356 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 8.7%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 7.275 billion yuan [1] Revenue Breakdown - Online music service revenue reached 5.804 billion yuan, up 15.9% year-over-year, exceeding Bloomberg's estimate of 5.797 billion yuan [1] - Subscription revenue contributed 4.22 billion yuan, a 16.6% increase year-over-year, also above the expected 4.174 billion yuan [1] - The number of paying users grew to 123 million, an 8.3% increase year-over-year, with the payment rate rising to 22.1%, up 2.5 percentage points [1] - Average Revenue Per Paying User (ARPPU) reached 11.4 yuan, a 7.5% year-over-year increase, benefiting from the growth of SVIP and reduced promotional activities [1] - Non-subscription revenue was 1.58 billion yuan, up 14.2% year-over-year, driven by growth in advertising revenue and income from artist-related activities and live performances [1] Social Entertainment and Other Services - Revenue from social entertainment and other services was 1.552 billion yuan, down 11.9% year-over-year, but still above the expected 1.478 billion yuan, mainly due to adjustments in live interaction features and stricter compliance procedures [2] Profitability Metrics - Gross margin improved to 44.1%, a 3.1 percentage point increase year-over-year, supported by growth in music subscription and advertising revenues, particularly from the SVIP segment and increased original content [2] - The company achieved a net profit of 4.291 billion yuan, a significant year-over-year increase of 201.8%, primarily due to the acquisition of a 2% stake in Universal Music Group (UMG) through an associate, which contributed 2.37 billion yuan to the profit [2] - Non-GAAP net profit for Q1 was 2.124 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 24.6% [2] Future Outlook - The company forecasts total revenue for 2025-2027 to be 31.4 billion yuan, 34.2 billion yuan, and 36.9 billion yuan, with Non-GAAP net profits of 8.8 billion yuan, 10.3 billion yuan, and 11.8 billion yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 21.29x, 18.22x, and 15.87x respectively [2]

Group 1 - As of May 15, 78 stocks reached their 52-week highs, with Jian De International Holdings (00865), China Carbon Neutral (01372), and Huicui International (08041) leading the high rate at 93.33%, 51.28%, and 43.24% respectively [1] - Jian De International Holdings closed at 0.050 with a peak of 0.058, while China Carbon Neutral and Huicui International closed at 1.180 and 0.475, with peaks of 1.180 and 0.530 respectively [1] - Other notable stocks that reached new highs include Lehua Entertainment (02306) at 2.000 (18.34%) and Glory Holdings (09998) at 0.160 (12.00%) [1] Group 2 - The 52-week low rankings show XI Er Nan Ying Wei - U (09011) at a closing price of 5.995, with a low of 5.800, reflecting a decline of -19.94% [3] - Other stocks reaching new lows include China Metal Utilization - New at 0.280 (low of 0.250, -10.71%) and Changyou International Group (01039) at 0.046 (low of 0.044, -8.33%) [3] - The list also includes Ocean Group (03377) at 0.129 (low of 0.126, -5.97%) and Zhongqi Group (01932) at 0.211 (low of 0.200, -4.76%) [3]

Market Overview - Hong Kong stocks surged today, with all three major indices rising over 2%. The Hang Seng Index increased by 2.3% or 532.38 points, closing at 23640.65 points, with a total turnover of 2228.41 million HKD [1] - The positive sentiment in the market is attributed to the unexpected progress in the first round of trade negotiations between China and the US, which is expected to continue in a constructive direction [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - JD Health (06618) saw a notable increase of 5.13%, closing at 39.95 HKD, contributing 3.56 points to the Hang Seng Index. The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 16.645 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of 25.5%, and operating profit of 1.071 billion RMB, up 119.8% [2] - Other blue-chip stocks included China Life (02628) rising by 6.55% to 16.26 HKD, AIA (01299) up 5.15% to 65.3 HKD, while Link REIT (00823) fell by 1.34% to 40.45 HKD [2] Sector Performance - Large technology stocks collectively rose, with Baidu increasing over 4% and Alibaba and JD both rising over 3% [3] - Financial stocks experienced a significant rally, with China Pacific Insurance (02601) up 6.77% to 24.45 HKD, China Life (02628) up 6.55%, and GF Securities (01776) up 6.31% to 11.46 HKD [3] Shipping Sector - The shipping sector performed well, with Pacific Basin Shipping (02343) rising by 7.78% to 1.94 HKD and Seafront International (01308) up 6.51% to 22.9 HKD. The improvement is linked to the easing of tariff conflicts and a seasonal increase in container shipping demand [4][5] Automotive Sector - The automotive sector saw widespread gains, with Li Auto (02015) rising by 4.54% to 112.8 HKD and Xpeng Motors (09868) up 3.87% to 81.8 HKD. The retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 905,000 units in April, a year-on-year increase of 33.9% [6][5] Coal Sector - The coal sector showed positive movement, with China Coal Energy (01898) up 4.91% to 8.55 HKD. Despite recent price declines, analysts suggest that demand may improve as summer approaches [7] Notable Stock Movements - Tencent Music (01698) surged by 12.84% to 61.5 HKD, reporting Q1 2025 revenue of 7.36 billion RMB, with online music service revenue growing by 15.9% [8] - Smoore International (06969) reached a new high, increasing by 10.18% to 17.32 HKD, amid rising sales of new tobacco products [9] - MicroPort Scientific (02252) saw a decline of 8.12% to 16.52 HKD due to a share placement announcement [10] - Samsonite (01910) dropped by 8.58% to 14.06 HKD after reporting a 7.3% decrease in net sales for Q1 2025 [11]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Technology HKETF (513890) has risen by 1.58%, with a trading volume of 609.18 million yuan, indicating active market participation [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index (HSTECH) increased by 1.90%, with notable gains from Tencent Music (up 13.94%), JD Health (up 5.92%), and XPeng Motors (up 4.44%) [1] - Zhongtai Securities suggests that the Hong Kong tech sector, particularly in internet and computing power, may experience structural opportunities similar to the 2021 new energy market [1] Group 2 - Morgan Asset Management is integrating its "Global Vision Investment Technology" product line to help investors capitalize on quality tech companies globally [2] - The actively managed funds include the Morgan Emerging Power Fund, focusing on emerging industry trends, and the Morgan Smart Connectivity Fund, which targets AI-related opportunities [2] - The Morgan Hang Seng Technology ETF (QDII) allows for easy investment in Hong Kong tech assets, while other funds focus on innovative pharmaceuticals and global tech leaders [3]

Group 1: Automotive Sector - Li Auto (09863) saw a rise of over 4%, with record order volume during the May Day holiday and recent share purchases by the chairman [1] - XPeng Motors (09868) increased by over 3%, becoming the first Chinese new energy vehicle company to participate in the Milan Design Week and officially entering the Italian market [1] - The rare earth sector surged, with Jinli Permanent Magnet (06680) rising over 5% due to export controls leading to increased overseas rare earth prices [1] Group 2: E-commerce and Health - JD Group (09618) rose over 4%, reporting Q1 revenue of 301.1 billion yuan, a 15.8% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 10.89 billion yuan, up 52.73% [2] - JD Health (06618) increased over 4%, with revenue of 16.645 billion yuan, a 25.5% year-on-year growth, and operating profit of 1.071 billion yuan, up 119.8% [2] Group 3: Music and Entertainment - Tencent Music (01698) rose over 12%, reporting total revenue of 7.36 billion yuan and adjusted net profit of 2.23 billion yuan, with online music service revenue growing by 15.9% [2] - NetEase Cloud Music (09899) increased over 11%, with analysts noting a positive growth phase in the online music industry due to improved competition and user willingness to pay [3] Group 4: Technology and AI - Baidu Group (09888) rose over 3%, planning to launch its Apollo Go autonomous taxi service in Switzerland and Turkey [3] - NuScale Power (SMR.US) reported quarterly sales of 13.4 million, significantly exceeding analyst expectations, leading to a rise of over 21% [6] Group 5: Shipping and Logistics - Shipping stocks collectively strengthened, with Pacific Shipping (02343) and Seaspan (01308) rising over 6%, and China Merchants Energy (02866) increasing over 12% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates an upward adjustment in Tencent Music's revenue and Non-IFRS net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, driven by better-than-expected progress in music subscription ARPPU [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Tencent Music reported revenue of 7.356 billion yuan, an 8.7% year-on-year increase, aligning with CICC's expectations [2] - The Non-IFRS net profit for Q1 2025 was 2.124 billion yuan, a 24.6% increase, surpassing CICC's forecast [2] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 improved by 0.5 percentage points to 44.1%, with stable sales and management expenses [4] Group 2: Music Business Growth - The online music segment generated revenue of 5.804 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a 15.9% year-on-year growth, with subscription revenue increasing by 16% to 4.22 billion yuan [3] - The number of paying users rose by 1.9 million to 123 million, and ARPPU increased by 7.5% to 11.4 yuan per month [3] - The SVIP service showed strong performance, driven by sound quality, promotional measures, concert rights, and long audio content [3][5] Group 3: Social Entertainment Segment - The social entertainment revenue for Q1 2025 was 1.552 billion yuan, down 11.9% year-on-year, with expectations of continued revenue decline throughout the year [3] Group 4: Strategic Focus - The company is focusing on long audio content, which is seen as a core driver for SVIP subscriptions, enhancing content differentiation [5] - Long audio content is expected to complement music users and improve the overall quality and quantity of the content library [5]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market opened with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.9% and the Tech Index increasing by 1.58% [1] - Tencent Music (01698.HK) saw a post-earnings increase of 4.4% [1] - JD.com (09618.HK) experienced a post-earnings rise of 4.2% [1]

北京时间5月13日港股盘后、美股盘前，腾讯音乐发布了2025年一季度财报。 财务层面，腾讯音乐在一季度持续实现高质量的增长：实现营收73.6亿元、调整后净利润22.3亿元，分别同比增长8.70%和22.8%。其中，成为核心引擎的 在线音乐业务继续"高飞"，在线音乐服务、在线音乐订阅两项业务收入分别为58.0亿元、42.2亿元，同比分别增长15.9%和16.6%。 业务层面，核心数据——付费用户和付费率也沿着过去几个季度的上升曲线平稳发展。季度内，在线音乐付费用户数同比增长8.3%至1.229亿，单个付费 用户月均收入（ARPPU）从2024年同期的10.6元增长至11.4元。 一切看起来是那么的欣欣向荣，可当我们穿透表面的繁华，深入探究后会发现，在看似蓬勃的发展图景下，腾讯音乐仍有焦虑如藤蔓般肆意生长，紧紧缠 绕着它前行的每一步。 成长确幸背后的掣肘 实际上，我们对腾讯音乐一季度报最客观的解读，应该是有喜有忧。 喜，开篇已经说明，在线音乐成为腾讯音乐最具优势的一张底牌，一季度占总收入近八成，而忧之所在也很明晰——这张底牌并非坚不可摧。 自2021年四季度首次出现同比下滑至今年一季度，腾讯音乐的在线音乐月活跃用 ...

北京时间 5 月 13 日港股盘后、美股盘前，腾讯音乐发布了 2025 年第一季度财报。关税贸易战开打之际，在欧美流媒体纷纷交出超预期成绩的时候，腾讯音乐是 否也能交出一份惊喜答卷？ 而跳出短期业绩的长远视角，腾讯音乐的业绩和估值拉升空间，又将靠什么驱动和支撑？ 具体来看： 一、会员订阅：更专注、更垂类 截至 Q1 末，腾讯音乐的付费渗透率已经达到 22%，环比上季度继续提升。和三年前锚定的长视频付费率目标相比，完成度也接近 90% 了。与此同时，单价的上 涨也靠着付费群策略，与付费率同步攀升——这是腾讯音乐的 3 年增长黄金期。因此当去年下半年，量、价驱动力同时减弱时，市场对增长的担忧也在不断升 温。 Q1 会员订阅增速一如指引（整体收入增速的指引）继续放缓，但分项来看，付费人头的增加还是很一般，但人均付费似乎有新一轮的拉动周期迹象。或者换句话 说，在竞争格局没有进一步出现明显恶化的拐点之前，掌握龙头优势的腾讯音乐，可以自己动态去调节量、价的驱动贡献。 显然，面对持续的用户流失，腾讯音乐选择了更垂类、更专注的一种做法——即，紧抓核心重度用户需求，推动 SVIP 的渗透转化，从单个人头的 UE 模型角度， 优 ...