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腾讯音乐-SW(01698) - 2025 Q1 - 季度业绩

2025-05-13 09:16
Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q1 2025 was RMB 7.36 billion (USD 1.01 billion), representing an 8.7% year-over-year increase, driven by strong growth in online music services[6]. - Online music subscription revenue grew by 16.6% year-over-year to RMB 4.22 billion (USD 581 million), with paid user count increasing by 8.3% to 122.9 million[6]. - Net profit attributable to equity holders was RMB 4.29 billion (USD 591 million), a significant increase of 201.8% year-over-year[6]. - Operating costs increased by 2.9% year-over-year to RMB 4.11 billion (USD 567 million), while gross margin improved from 40.9% in Q1 2024 to 44.1% in Q1 2025[13]. - Net profit for Q1 2025 was RMB 4.39 billion (USD 605 million), with a year-over-year increase of 146.9% in operating profit to RMB 4.84 billion (USD 666 million)[16]. - The net profit attributable to equity holders for Q1 2024 was RMB 1,422 million, projected to increase to RMB 4,291 million in Q1 2025, representing a growth of 202%[28]. - Basic earnings per share for A and B ordinary shares were RMB 0.46 for Q1 2024, expected to rise to RMB 1.40 in Q1 2025, marking an increase of 204%[28]. Cash and Investments - Cash and cash equivalents, along with short-term investments, totaled RMB 37.67 billion (USD 5.19 billion) as of March 31, 2025[6]. - Cash and cash equivalents totaled RMB 37.67 billion (USD 5.19 billion) as of March 31, 2025, slightly up from RMB 37.58 billion at the end of 2024[17]. - The company repurchased a total of 5.9 million ADS for approximately USD 64.5 million at an average price of USD 10.8 per ADS during the three months ended March 31, 2025[18]. - A cash dividend of USD 0.18 per ADS was declared for the year ended December 31, 2024, totaling USD 275 million, paid on April 3, 2025[19]. - The company acquired a 2% stake in Universal Music Group (UMG) through an affiliate, resulting in a gain of RMB 2.37 billion (USD 327 million) recognized in other comprehensive income[15]. - Tencent Music's cash and cash equivalents decreased from RMB 13,164 million at the end of 2024 to RMB 12,022 million by March 31, 2025[31]. - The cash and cash equivalents decreased by RMB 1,158 million during the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to a decrease of RMB 3,334 million in the same period of 2024, indicating improved cash flow management[33]. User Engagement and Content - Monthly active users for online music services decreased by 4.0% year-over-year to 555 million, while paid users increased by 8.3%[7]. - The average revenue per paid user per month rose to RMB 11.4, up 7.5% from RMB 10.6 in the same period last year[7]. - The company continues to enhance its content offerings through partnerships with major record labels and the introduction of high-quality audio experiences[8]. - New product initiatives include exclusive merchandise and immersive online-offline music experiences, which have shown strong sales performance[11]. - The company is focused on expanding its international music content and enhancing cultural diversity on its platform[8]. - Long audio content has effectively improved the renewal rates of super members, with a new audio drama achieving over 10 million plays rapidly[11]. Operational Metrics - Tencent Music Entertainment Group reported online music service revenue of RMB 5,007 million for the three months ended March 31, 2024, an increase of 8% compared to RMB 5,804 million for the same period in 2025[27]. - The total revenue for Tencent Music was RMB 6,768 million for Q1 2024, projected to grow to RMB 7,356 million in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of approximately 8.7%[27]. - Operating profit for the first quarter of 2024 was RMB 1,959 million, which is expected to rise significantly to RMB 4,836 million in Q1 2025, indicating a growth of 146%[27]. - Tencent Music's total operating expenses for Q1 2024 were RMB 1,136 million, expected to increase slightly to RMB 1,143 million in Q1 2025[27]. Balance Sheet and Equity - The total assets of Tencent Music increased from RMB 90,444 million as of December 31, 2024, to RMB 98,084 million as of March 31, 2025, reflecting a growth of 8.1%[31]. - As of March 31, 2025, total equity increased to RMB 75,199 million from RMB 69,726 million, representing an increase of approximately 7%[32]. - The company's retained earnings rose to RMB 22,642 million as of March 31, 2025, compared to RMB 20,051 million, an increase of approximately 12.9%[32]. - The total equity attributable to shareholders increased by RMB 5,436 million, from RMB 67,863 million to RMB 73,237 million, representing an increase of about 8%[32]. - Total liabilities rose to RMB 22,885 million as of March 31, 2025, compared to RMB 20,718 million, reflecting an increase of about 10.5%[32]. - The company's total current liabilities increased to RMB 18,630 million as of March 31, 2025, from RMB 16,550 million, reflecting an increase of approximately 12.5%[32]. ESG Commitment - The company emphasizes its commitment to ESG practices, focusing on intellectual property protection, user privacy, and sustainable development[20].
“五一”假期中国资产大涨,恒生科技ETF龙头(513380)盘中涨超3%,恒生科技指数已连涨两周
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-06 06:05
Group 1 - During the "May Day" holiday, Chinese assets experienced significant gains, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.74% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 3.08% as of May 2 [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index has seen a two-week consecutive rise, with a total increase of 7.2% during this period [1] - The offshore RMB appreciated against the USD, rising by 687 basis points to 7.2011 [1] Group 2 - As of May 6, 2025, the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH) showed a slight decline of 0.01%, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1] - Meituan-W (03690) led the gains with an increase of 4.08%, while NIO-SW (09866) was the biggest loser [1] - The Hang Seng Tech ETF (513380) saw a 3.01% increase, with trading volume reaching 3.54 billion and a turnover rate of 7.07% [1] Group 3 - The Hang Seng Tech ETF's latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) is 21.06, indicating it is at a historical low compared to the past year [2] - The Hong Kong dollar has been strengthening, nearing the 7.75 peg limit, prompting interventions from the Hong Kong Monetary Authority [2] - There is a notable trend of capital flowing into Hong Kong's tech and internet sectors amid ongoing adjustments in the real estate market [2] Group 4 - Despite recent gains, the valuation advantage of Hong Kong tech stocks remains, with potential catalysts in the tech sector and policy signals from the Two Sessions [2] - The Hang Seng Tech ETF covers top-quality tech leaders in Hong Kong, focusing on companies highly related to technology themes [2]
【钛晨报】中央政治局重磅定调,着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期;马斯克的XAI正与投资者洽谈,计划融资约200亿美元;特朗普称中国须做出实质性让步,否则不会取消对华加征的关税
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-26 23:41
Economic Policy and Development - The meeting emphasized the need to implement more proactive macro policies, utilizing fiscal and monetary measures to support the real economy and stabilize employment, enterprises, and market expectations [1][2] - It was highlighted that income for low- and middle-income groups should be increased, and service consumption should be developed to enhance its contribution to economic growth [1][2] Corporate Support and Innovation - Multiple measures will be taken to support struggling enterprises, including enhancing financing support and promoting the integration of domestic and foreign trade [2] - The focus will be on cultivating new pillar industries and advancing key core technology breakthroughs, including the introduction of a "technology board" in the bond market [2] Risk Management and Stability - Continuous efforts will be made to prevent and mitigate risks in key areas, including implementing a comprehensive debt policy for local governments and addressing overdue payments to enterprises [2] - The meeting also stressed the importance of maintaining stability in the real estate market and capital markets [2] Employment and Social Welfare - Policies will be introduced to promote employment and entrepreneurship among youth, including financial incentives for organizations hiring eligible graduates [11] - A layered social assistance system will be established to support those affected by tariffs and other economic pressures [2] Digital and Green Development - The government is promoting the establishment of cross-border e-commerce pilot zones to enhance innovation and regulatory frameworks in the digital economy [12] - A collaborative approach to digital and green transformation will be emphasized, with specific tasks outlined to promote low-carbon development in various sectors [15]
中概退市:这次“狼真会来”?别怕,不是末日!
海豚投研· 2025-04-24 09:56
自4月3日美国总统特朗普正式宣布"对等关税"以来,中美之间多次互相提高关税,目前双方相互加征的关税都已在100%以上。且随着贸易摩擦的升温,中美两国 之间的角力有着进一步向其他领域扩散的风险。 值得关注的是:① 近日美国财政部长曾表示, 不排除以在美上市的中概公司强制退市,作为两国间谈判的筹码之一;② 2月21日, 白宫发布了"America First Investment Policy"备忘录中,也提及了在一定情况下限制美国资金投资于部分中国公司/资产的可能性。 虽然上述两条潜在的风险截至目前仅停留在口头阶段,美国政府尚没有进行任何实质性的动作。但历史上,中概退市威胁并非没有先例: 2020年~2022年间美国政 府就曾以HFCAA法案下,无法获得中概上市公司的审计监管权的原因,正式推进过中概在美退市。 尽管后续中美两国政府达成了协议,中概从美股全面退市并没真正发生,但仍有中移动等公司在争端期间被美政府强制退市,后有如中国石油等在争端缓解后仍 主动选择退市。 由此可见,无论是 强制中概从美股退市、抑或禁止美国资金投资中国资产,虽然最终落地的概率应当非常小,但属于存在先例、不能视而不见的"黑天鹅"风险。 海 ...
腾讯音乐-SW(01698) - 2024 - 年度财报
2025-04-23 10:26
Voting Rights and Share Structure - Tencent Music Entertainment Group holds 93.8% of the voting rights through its Class B shares as of April 9, 2025[3]. - The total number of outstanding shares is 3,097,809,008, comprising 1,432,859,756 Class A shares and 1,664,949,252 Class B shares[2]. - If all Class B shares are converted to Class A shares, the total Class A shares would increase to approximately 116.2% of the current total[3]. - Tencent and Min River have committed to notify the company before transferring any Class B shares, ensuring they are converted to Class A shares[4]. - EMI Group Limited holds 24,492,362 Class B shares, representing 1.4% of the voting rights[2]. - Tencent is considered the beneficial owner of 141,415,349 Class A shares held by Spotify AB due to a voting agreement[2]. - The company has ten different voting rights beneficiaries, with six being early investors holding nominal interests[2]. - The voting rights structure allows Class B shareholders to convert their shares to Class A shares at any time[3]. - The company has received a waiver from strict compliance with certain Hong Kong listing rules for early investors[2]. - The company has a dual-class voting structure, with Tencent as the primary beneficiary holding a significant proportion of voting rights[7]. - Investors are advised to consider the potential risks associated with investing in companies with different voting rights structures, as the interests of different voting rights beneficiaries may not always align with those of overall shareholders[7]. - The company’s articles of association stipulate that any transfer of B-class shares will only be effective upon registration in the company’s shareholder register[6]. Financial Performance and Revenue Growth - The average revenue per paying user for online music services increased by 15% year-over-year[15]. - The total number of paying users for social entertainment services reached 10 million, representing a growth of 20% compared to the previous year[15]. - The company reported a total revenue of $1.2 billion for the last quarter, a 12% increase from the same period last year[15]. - The paid user conversion rate improved to 25%, up from 22% in the previous quarter[15]. - Future guidance indicates expected revenue growth of 15-20% for the upcoming fiscal year[15]. - The company anticipates changes in revenue, content-related costs, and operating profit margins[21]. - The company aims to achieve a 10% increase in overall profitability through cost optimization strategies[15]. - The company plans to expand its market presence in Southeast Asia, targeting a 30% increase in user base by the end of the next fiscal year[15]. - New product launches in the AI-generated content space are expected to contribute an additional $200 million in revenue over the next year[15]. Operational Structure and Variable Interest Entities - Tencent Music Entertainment Group operates through variable interest entities due to restrictions on foreign investment in certain Chinese sectors[24]. - The company has significant contracts with variable interest entities that allow it to influence their economic performance and obtain most of their economic benefits[24]. - Tencent Music's structure includes various subsidiaries and variable interest entities, ensuring compliance with Chinese laws while maximizing operational efficiency[25]. - The company has a 100% ownership in Tencent Music Entertainment (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd., which operates key services like QQ Music and K Song[27]. - Guangzhou Kugou and Beijing Kuwo, both subsidiaries, are primarily controlled by Tencent, with ownership stakes of 99.6096% and 61.64% respectively[27]. - The company has established partnerships and agreements with local entities to navigate regulatory challenges in the Chinese market[24]. - Tencent Music's business model relies heavily on exclusive purchase rights and service agreements with its variable interest entities[24]. Regulatory Environment and Compliance - The establishment of the National Data Bureau in China on October 25, 2023, aims to enhance the coordination of data resource integration and utilization, impacting the digital economy and data security regulations[46]. - The Cybersecurity Review Measures require network platform operators with over one million users' personal information to undergo cybersecurity reviews before listing abroad, affecting future market strategies[46]. - The Data Cross-Border Flow Regulations, effective from March 22, 2024, mandate security assessments for data processors providing data overseas under certain conditions, influencing international operations[47]. - The company must ensure compliance with the Personal Information Protection Compliance Audit Management Measures, which will be effective from May 1, 2025, requiring audits for entities processing over 10 million personal data[47]. - The company maintains a comprehensive data protection program and has implemented strict internal policies to ensure compliance with cybersecurity and data privacy regulations[48]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued new rules effective March 31, 2023, requiring domestic companies seeking overseas listings to file with the CSRC[49]. - Regulatory bodies in China have intensified scrutiny of live streaming businesses, enforcing real-name registration and restrictions on user tipping[51]. - The implementation of live streaming regulations may adversely affect the company's business and long-term performance due to increased compliance requirements[52]. - Recent amendments to China's Anti-Monopoly Law have strengthened regulations on online platforms, prohibiting monopolistic practices using data and algorithms[53]. - The new anti-monopoly regulations include penalties for failing to notify authorities about mergers that may restrict competition, with fines up to 10% of the previous year's sales[53]. Legal Risks and Liabilities - The company faces significant legal and operational risks due to regulatory powers in China that can impact business operations and foreign investments[29]. - Future regulatory actions may lead to substantial penalties or changes in the company's corporate structure, affecting the financial performance of the variable interest entities[29]. - The company may encounter challenges in executing contractual arrangements with variable interest entities due to uncertainties in the interpretation and application of current and future Chinese laws[28]. - The company faces potential legal liabilities related to user-generated content uploaded to its platform, especially if users have not secured necessary copyright permissions[73]. - The company has been involved in lawsuits related to copyright infringement, which may increase as it continues its international expansion[78]. - The complexity of the company's licensing agreements may impose various obligations that could adversely affect its business operations and financial performance[80]. - The company may incur substantial costs and resource expenditures in defending against infringement claims, regardless of their validity[78]. - The company faces potential legal liabilities if it fails to comply with copyright laws, particularly if it does not take timely action upon receiving proper notifications from rights holders[74]. User Engagement and Content Strategy - The company aims to retain and attract users while expanding its music and audio entertainment content offerings[21]. - The company’s ability to attract and retain users may be significantly adversely affected if it fails to predict user preferences and provide content that meets user needs[61]. - The company is committed to investing substantial resources in content acquisition and production, but may face challenges in successfully sourcing attractive content or recovering investments made in this area[67]. - The company has introduced a paid streaming model for its online music service since Q1 2019 and continues to increase the number of songs under this model, but cannot guarantee sustained popularity or successful exploration of new monetization models[87]. - The company faces challenges in providing high-quality and user-friendly experiences, continuously introducing attractive content, and managing data security and user privacy risks[88]. - The company's strong brand is crucial for retaining and expanding user base and advertising clients, relying on the ability to provide comprehensive and high-quality content and services[90]. Financial Health and Investment - The company has allocated $100 million for research and development in new technologies, focusing on IoT integration[15]. - The company reported a tax rate of 25% on pre-tax profits, leading to a net distributable profit of 67.5% after withholding tax[32]. - The management believes the likelihood of double taxation due to non-deductible expenses being transferred to the Chinese subsidiary is low, which would otherwise reduce post-tax income to approximately 50.6% of pre-tax income[33]. - The company is exploring tax planning strategies to mitigate potential tax liabilities arising from intercompany transactions[32]. - The company is facing regulatory uncertainties in the online music and audio entertainment industry, particularly regarding exclusive copyright agreements, which may impact its business operations and financial performance significantly[97]. - The company requires substantial capital for content acquisition, user acquisition, and technology investments, and failure to secure adequate funding may negatively affect its business outlook[150]. Market Competition and Challenges - The online music and audio entertainment market is rapidly evolving, and the company's success depends on keeping pace with technological changes and user behavior shifts[91]. - The company competes with other online music service providers and social entertainment platforms, facing increasing competition from emerging content forms like live streaming and user-generated short videos[100]. - Competition is based on various factors including content diversity, product features, user experience, and the ability to attract and retain key opinion leaders and live streamers, which are crucial for user engagement[101]. - The company relies on live streamers to drive user traffic and engagement, and any failure to retain these talents could negatively impact its live streaming services[102]. Cybersecurity and Data Protection - The company is subject to extensive regulation in China, and failure to obtain or maintain necessary licenses could lead to significant adverse effects on its business and financial performance[92]. - The company has implemented comprehensive measures to reduce the likelihood of unauthorized content usage, including requiring user confirmation not to upload infringing content[74]. - The company faces risks related to inappropriate behavior by live streamers and users, which could adversely affect its brand image and business operations[105]. - The integration of AI technologies, such as the DeepSeek language model, aims to enhance user experience by enabling personalized music creation and recommendations[113]. - Compliance with evolving cybersecurity and data protection laws may incur significant costs and could necessitate unfavorable changes to the company's operations[124]. Strategic Partnerships and Collaborations - The company relies heavily on its strategic partnership with Tencent, and any disruption in this relationship could significantly impact its business and operational performance[169]. - Several directors of the company are also employees of Tencent, which may create or appear to create conflicts of interest when decisions arise that could impact both parties differently[178]. - The company has entered into an agreement with a content partner, which includes provisions for resolving disputes related to copyright claims, but cannot guarantee immunity from potential infringement claims[72]. Future Outlook and Strategic Initiatives - The company is continuously exploring new markets and regions due to its increasing brand recognition, which may not yield the expected long-term benefits[121]. - The company is actively seeking to expand its market presence and may pursue additional licenses to enhance its service offerings in compliance with local regulations[95]. - The company is investing heavily in content creation and innovation to enhance user experience, which may impact short-term profitability[121]. - The company faces potential economic losses and reputational damage due to privacy issues and security vulnerabilities, which may deter users from utilizing its products[122].
腾讯音乐(01698.HK):公司董事会将于2025年5月12日(星期一)审议及表决公司截至2025年3月31日止3个月的未经审计业绩及公告(\"第一季度业绩公告\")等事项。
news flash· 2025-04-15 10:20
Core Viewpoint - Tencent Music's board of directors will review and vote on the company's unaudited performance for the three months ending March 31, 2025, on May 12, 2025 [1] Group 1 - The board meeting is scheduled for May 12, 2025 [1] - The meeting will include the review of the first quarter performance announcement [1]
腾讯音乐-SW:24Q4点评:平台生态丰富,驱动付费率持续提升-20250326
Orient Securities· 2025-03-26 05:55
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Music [5] Core Views - The company is expected to see continuous improvement in online music revenue and profit margins due to the growth in paid users and ARPPU [2] - The forecasted net profits for the years 2024 to 2026 are 6.644 billion, 7.645 billion, and 9.133 billion CNY respectively, with a target price set at 66.89 HKD [2][5] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company anticipates total revenue of 28.401 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 2.3% [12] - The operating profit for 2024 is projected to be 7.349 billion CNY, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 53.8% [12] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is expected to be 6.644 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 35.0% [12] - The gross margin is forecasted to improve to 42.3% in 2024, up from 35.3% in 2023 [12] - The net margin is projected to reach 23.4% in 2024, compared to 17.7% in 2023 [12] - The company’s P/E ratio for 2025 is estimated at 26.1 times [12] Revenue Breakdown - In Q4 2024, the online music service revenue is expected to be 58.3 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year increase of 16.1% [9] - The social entertainment service revenue for Q4 2024 is projected at 16.3 billion CNY, a decrease of 13.0% year-on-year [9] - The total revenue for 2025 is anticipated to reach 310 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9% [9]
腾讯音乐-SW(01698):24Q4点评:平台生态丰富,驱动付费率持续提升
Orient Securities· 2025-03-26 05:21
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Music [5] Core Views - The company is expected to see continuous improvement in online music revenue and profit margins due to the growth in paid users and ARPPU [2] - The projected net profits for the years 2024 to 2026 are 66 billion, 76 billion, and 91 billion CNY respectively, with a target price set at 66.89 HKD [2] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company anticipates revenue of 28.4 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.3% [12] - The operating profit for 2024 is projected to be 7.35 billion CNY, with a significant year-on-year increase of 53.8% [12] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is expected to reach 6.64 billion CNY, marking a 35% increase year-on-year [12] - The gross margin is forecasted to improve to 42.3% in 2024, up from 35.3% in 2023 [12] - The net margin is projected to rise to 23.4% in 2024, compared to 17.7% in 2023 [12] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 10.7% in 2024, increasing from 9.5% in 2023 [12] Revenue Breakdown - Online music service revenue for Q4 is reported at 58.3 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year increase of 16.1% [9] - Social entertainment service revenue for Q4 is 16.3 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 13% [9] - The company expects total revenue for 2025 to reach 310 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 9% [9] User Metrics - The monthly active users (MAU) for Q4 stand at 560 million, a decrease of 3.5% year-on-year [9] - The monthly paying users (MPU) reached 120 million, an increase of 13.4% year-on-year [9] - The average revenue per paying user (ARPPU) is reported at 11 CNY per month, with expectations for it to rise to 11.3 CNY in Q1 2025 [9]
腾讯音乐-SW:利润表现超预期,平衡会员规模和ARPU-20250320
GF SECURITIES· 2025-03-20 14:41
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Music (TME) with a current price of $15.09 and a fair value of $16.36 [9][40]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Tencent Music's profit performance exceeded expectations, balancing membership growth and ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) [3][9]. - The company is expected to continue enhancing its SVIP (Super VIP) membership scale and ARPU, leading to steady revenue growth [9][34]. - The online music revenue for Q4 2024 was reported at 58.31 billion RMB, showing a year-over-year increase of 16% [9][34]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023A: 27,752 million RMB - 2024A: 28,401 million RMB (growth rate: 2.3%) - 2025E: 30,973 million RMB (growth rate: 9.1%) - 2026E: 35,313 million RMB (growth rate: 14.0%) - 2027E: 38,160 million RMB (growth rate: 8.1%) [4] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023A: 5,923 million RMB - 2024A: 7,671 million RMB (growth rate: 29.5%) - 2025E: 8,699 million RMB (growth rate: 13.4%) - 2026E: 10,359 million RMB (growth rate: 19.1%) - 2027E: 11,645 million RMB (growth rate: 12.4%) [4] - **EPS and Valuation Ratios**: - EPS for 2025E is projected at 5.58 RMB, with a P/E ratio of 21.60 [4]. - The report anticipates a continuous improvement in gross margin, reaching 45.1% and 47.4% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [35]. Business Segment Performance - **Online Music Business**: - Expected to generate revenues of 252.31 billion RMB and 298.59 billion RMB in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 16% and 18% [34]. - The net profit margin for the online music segment is projected to be 27% and 29% for 2025 and 2026 [36]. - **Social Entertainment Business**: - Revenue is expected to decline, with projections of 57.42 billion RMB and 54.55 billion RMB for 2025 and 2026, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 14% and 5% [34][36]. Valuation Analysis - The fair value of Tencent Music is calculated at $16.36 per ADS, based on a segmented valuation approach [40]. - The online music business is valued at 28x P/E, while the social entertainment business is valued at 9x P/E [41].
腾讯音乐-SW:利润超预期,预计全年增长加速,维持“买入”评级-20250320
浦银国际证券· 2025-03-20 05:38
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Music (TME.US/1698.HK) and raises the target price to $18 or HKD 70, indicating a potential upside of 19% from the current price of $15.09 [3][5]. Core Insights - Tencent Music's Q4 2024 revenue reached RMB 74.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%, surpassing market expectations by 2.4%, primarily driven by better-than-expected social entertainment service revenue [1]. - The adjusted net profit for Q4 2024 was RMB 22.8 billion, exceeding market expectations of RMB 19.4 billion, attributed to improved gross profit and optimized operating expenses [1]. - The online music service revenue grew by 16.1% year-on-year in Q4 2024, supported by subscription and advertising revenue growth [2]. - The report forecasts continued growth in subscription revenue, with an expected ARPU increase to nearly RMB 12 by Q4 2025 [2]. - Social entertainment service revenue showed a sequential recovery, with a 6.0% increase quarter-on-quarter, although it still faced a year-on-year decline of 13.0% [2]. Financial Projections - The report projects the following financial metrics for Tencent Music: - FY24 revenue: RMB 28,401 million - FY25E revenue: RMB 30,817 million - FY26E revenue: RMB 34,176 million - FY27E revenue: RMB 37,711 million - Adjusted net profit for FY25E: RMB 8,627 million [4][10]. - The adjusted net profit margin is expected to improve, with FY25E and FY26E adjusted net profit margins projected at 28.0% and 28.5%, respectively [10].