智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，Q4基数下降+终端运价改善+外部不确定性缓和，造船业已 迎来需求拐点，重视明年造船行业的贝塔复苏。2021-2024年的造船市场以集装箱叠加LNG船为核心驱 动力，25年造船市场在美国301冲击下回落。该行认为26年开始船舶需求市场进入2.0阶段。2026年的造 船行情有望类比2019年的工程机械，需求的二次加速有望激发估值中枢抬升。 广发证券主要观点如下： 1月新船订单首次同比转正，散货船和油轮边际拐点已至 根据clarksons，11月新船订单cgt/dwt/金额同比增速3.5%/37.6%/20.1%，全面转正;10-11月散货船和油轮 的订单增速较快，散货船订单载重吨同比分别+87.32%/+0.33%，油轮订单载重吨同比分别 +24.34%/284%。后续有望进一步上修，且散货船和油轮的新船价格指数有所回暖。全年累计新船订单 已达到1.16亿dwt，下半年行业回暖驱动订单加速。Q4基数下降+终端运价改善+外部不确定性缓和，造 船业已迎来需求拐点，重视明年造船行业的贝塔复苏。 散货船：西芒杜铁矿正式投产，高产量+长运距带来海岬型船额外运力需求 根据wind，西芒 ...

锂电池产业链呈现出清晰的上中下游垂直分工，各环节价值量与竞争壁垒各异。首先，上游聚焦资源属 性。主要包括正极所需的锂、钴、镍等金属资源（被誉为"白色石油"），以及负极所需的石墨资源。上 游价格波动往往直接传导至整个产业链，具有较强的周期性特征。其次，中游聚焦制造工艺与四大主 材。这是电池制造的"中央厨房"，核心在于电芯制造与组装。技术壁垒主要体现在正极材料、负极材 料、隔膜、电解液"四大主材"的配方与工艺上。头部企业通过规模效应与领先的技术，构建了较深的护 城河。 下游展望：动力稳健增长，储能接力爆发 根据广发证券财富管理部整理数据，预计2025年锂电池下游应用将呈现"一超多强、储能加速"的格局： 一是动力电池（基本盘）：占比将达61.9%。新能源汽车渗透率的提升仍是当前行业需求的主引擎，但 随着渗透率突破50%临界点，增速将逐步回归稳健，市场关注点转向海外市场拓展及车企价格战下的成 本控制。 一直以来，广发证券主动担起金融机构的主体责任，发挥业务优势，打造丰富的投教载体，贯彻资本市 场人民性立场，树牢金融为民的理念，引领投资者教育工作走在行业前列。随着一系列新政策的出台， 我国资本市场进入新发展阶段，广发证 ...

易方达近十年给股东分红121亿，广发证券分得27.9亿 根据广发证券2024年报数据，易方达基金营业收入121.09亿元，净利润39.00亿元。广发证券持有易方达 基金22.65%的股权，获得了2.70亿元的分红。即易方达给股东的分红总额为11.92亿元，分红率为 30.56%。 依此类推，近十年（从2015到2024），易方达基金累计净利润254.27亿元，累计给股东分红121.43亿 元。近十年广发证券累计从易方达基金获得分红27.93亿元。 | | | | 易方达基金历年分红率 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 年份 | | 广发证券获得 广发证券 易方达给股东 | | 易方达基金 | 分红率 | | | | 分红金额/亿元 持股比例 分红总额/亿元 净利润亿元 | | | | | 2015 | 0.75亿元 | 25.00% | 3.00亿元 | 11.90亿元 | 25.20% | | 2016 | 0.75亿元 | 25.00% | 3.00亿元 | 13.40亿元 | 22.39% | | 2017 | 2.10亿元 | 25.00% | ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need for a balanced approach to economic policy, focusing on both short-term support and long-term structural reforms to stimulate economic potential and address external challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Policy Framework - The conference introduced five new "musts" for economic policy, including the need to fully tap economic potential to address insufficient effective demand and release domestic demand space [2] - It highlighted the importance of combining policy support with reform and innovation to stimulate factor vitality [2] - The need to balance market vitality with regulatory frameworks was emphasized, aiming for both flexibility and effective governance [2] Group 2: Investment Focus - The conference stressed the importance of combining investments in physical assets with human capital, advocating for increased investment in areas such as population, education, healthcare, social security, and skills [2] - It called for a focus on internal demand expansion, technological self-reliance, industrial chain security, and green transformation to enhance economic resilience against external uncertainties [2] Group 3: Monetary Policy - The conference reiterated the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, with a focus on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery [3] - It emphasized the flexible and efficient use of various policy tools, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, to maintain ample liquidity and support key areas such as domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium enterprises [3] - The importance of maintaining the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level was also highlighted [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need for a balanced approach to economic policy, focusing on both short-term support and long-term structural reforms to stimulate economic potential and address external challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Policy Framework - The 2026 policy will exhibit more pronounced "cross-cycle" characteristics, with interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions remaining viable policy tools [2]. - The conference introduced five new "musts" for economic policy, including the need to fully tap economic potential and to combine policy support with reform innovation [2][3]. - The focus on balancing total supply and demand, as well as enhancing quality while expanding total volume, will significantly influence the macro policy framework for 2025 [2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy - The implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy is to continue, with a focus on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery [3]. - The use of various policy tools, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement reductions, is expected to be flexible and efficient, indicating that these remain options for policy action [3]. - Financial institutions are encouraged to support key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium-sized enterprises, reflecting the priority of domestic demand in financial policy [3].

Core Viewpoint - The new Federal Reserve Chair's hawkish stance on interest rate cuts has led to a shift in market expectations, indicating a lower likelihood of extreme hawkishness in future monetary policy, which is expected to support a strong spring rally in Hong Kong stocks due to liquidity easing and potential excess capital inflow [1][18]. Group 1: Spring Rally in Hong Kong Stocks - The spring rally in Hong Kong stocks (from Christmas to before the Spring Festival) is expected to occur, with historical data showing a high probability of gains for the Hang Seng Technology Index and the Hang Seng Index during this period, at 72.7% and 80.0% respectively, with median gains of 6.3% and 4.7% [2][17]. - The current market conditions suggest that the spring rally will not be hindered by liquidity concerns, as the peak of stock unlocks has passed, and the market is not overly worried about the impact of Japanese interest rate changes [18]. Group 2: Historical Performance and Trends - Over the past 15 years, the spring rally has consistently shown strong performance, with the Hang Seng Technology Index achieving an average gain of 4.7% and the Hang Seng Index 3.8% during this period [2][17]. - The occurrence of a spring rally is often linked to factors such as liquidity easing and positive macroeconomic data, as seen in strong years like 2021 and 2023 [16][18]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Expectations - The market's expectation of a dovish Federal Reserve Chair, following a significant drop in the probability of the hawkish candidate, suggests that the upcoming monetary policy will likely support market stability and growth [1][18]. - Anticipation for developments in DeepSeek's model and advancements in domestic internet companies' consumer applications is expected to positively influence the fundamentals of the Hang Seng Technology Index in the near future [18].

健信超导扎根医用磁共振成像设备核心部件行业多年，形成了包括1.5T、3.0T及开放式零挥发超导磁体 和1.5T无液氦超导磁体在内丰富的产品矩阵，已成为全球排名第一的超导磁体独立供应商。 尊敬的各位嘉宾、各位投资者朋友： 大家好！ 非常感谢各位参加宁波健信超导科技股份有限公司首次公开发行股票并在上交所科创板上市网上投资者 交流活动。在此，我谨代表广发证券，向大家表示热烈的欢迎及衷心的感谢！ 作为健信超导本次发行上市的保荐人及主承销商，广发证券在与公司长期合作进程中，既见证其稳健快 速发展，亦深切体会到公司管理层具备的超前行业洞察力与深厚的从业经验。我们相信，以本次发行上 市为重要契机，健信超导必将在为国内企业提供更多超导技术国产方案的同时，努力开拓全球市场，开 启高质量发展新篇章。 在今天的网上交流中，我们将认真负责地回答各位投资者和各位朋友提出的问题，让大家能更全面、深 入地了解健信超导，把握投资机会，共享健信超导发展的硕果。欢迎大家踊跃提问，积极参与申购。 最后，预祝健信超导首次公开发行A股圆满成功！谢谢大家！ （文章来源：上海证券报） 在零挥发超导技术领域，公司追平了与国际巨头约20年的技术差距，并通过设 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the recent performance of various industries, with notable gains in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, electronics, and power equipment, while retail and real estate sectors faced declines [1][1][1] - The central economic work conference emphasized the importance of technological breakthroughs and supply-demand optimization, indicating a shift towards quality improvement in economic growth [11][12][19] - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing significant growth, with the establishment of a dedicated regulatory body and a notable increase in the commercial aerospace index, which has risen by 46.52% since April 7 [47][48] Group 2 - The report indicates a seasonal recovery in social financing, with November seeing an increase of 24,885 billion yuan, driven primarily by government bond issuance [4][7] - The credit environment is showing signs of marginal improvement, particularly in corporate loans, which increased by 6,100 billion yuan in November, reflecting a recovery in demand [5][6] - The report notes that the retail sector is undergoing a transformation, with a focus on quality, as highlighted by the Ministry of Commerce's emphasis on retail quality upgrades [1][1][1] Group 3 - The report discusses the rising interest in inquiry transfers, which have seen a significant increase in both project numbers and transfer scale, indicating a growing trend in the market [51][52] - The technology sector is expected to remain a key focus, with upcoming events such as the Volcano Engine FORCE conference anticipated to showcase advancements in AI and cloud services [56]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the insurance sector, recommending specific companies such as China Pacific Insurance, China Ping An, China Life (H), and China Taiping, while also recommending New China Life Insurance [4][17]. Core Insights - The financial industry experienced a mixed performance, with the non-bank financial index rising by 0.81%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.89 percentage points. The insurance sector showed a notable increase of 2.36%, while the banking sector declined by 1.77% [2][11]. - The central economic work conference emphasized a proactive fiscal policy, which is expected to benefit the insurance sector by increasing infrastructure asset supply and improving credit risk perceptions [14][15]. - The report highlights the potential for valuation recovery in the brokerage sector, driven by regulatory changes that align public fund interests with long-term investor returns [18][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Performance and Sector Insights - The non-bank financial index rose by 0.81%, with the insurance sector outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.44 percentage points [2][11]. - The banking sector underperformed, with a decline of 1.77%, attributed to macroeconomic policy expectations [3][21]. 2. Insurance Sector Data Tracking - The insurance sector's premium income showed steady growth, with life insurance and property insurance premiums increasing by 9.6% and 4.0% year-on-year, respectively [17][26]. - The report notes that the 10-year government bond yield decreased to 1.84%, which is favorable for the insurance sector's investment strategies [31]. 3. Brokerage Sector Data Tracking - The brokerage sector's PB valuation stands at 1.37x, indicating potential for valuation recovery as earnings improve [19][42]. - Regulatory changes in public fund sales are expected to enhance the industry's focus on long-term investor interests [18][19]. 4. Banking Sector Data Tracking - The banking sector's PB valuation is at 0.54x, suggesting it remains undervalued [21][25]. - The central economic work conference's focus on domestic demand and flexible monetary policy is expected to support the banking sector's growth [22][23].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The non-bank financial index increased by 0.81%, outperforming the CSI 300 index which decreased by 0.08%. The brokerage and insurance sectors continue to show good trends, with valuations at low levels and relatively stagnant performance throughout the year. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are beneficial for the equity market, directly favoring the profitability of securities firms' overseas businesses due to lower liability costs and asset expansion [4][5] - The average daily trading volume of stock funds reached 2.39 trillion, a 15.1% increase month-on-month, indicating a recovery in trading activity. The cumulative average daily trading volume for the year is 2.05 trillion, a 69.5% year-on-year increase [5] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission's recent positive stance signals a potential "policy easing period" for the industry, which may lead to an increase in leverage limits and support for the profitability of the securities industry. The report recommends focusing on strategic opportunities in undervalued leading companies in the brokerage and insurance sectors [5][6] Summary by Sections Brokerage Sector - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are favorable for the overseas business of brokerages, and new regulations are set to standardize fund sales practices. The report highlights three main lines of recommended stocks: Huatai Securities, Guotai Junan, and CICC for their advantages in overseas and institutional business; GF Securities and Dongfang Securities for their wealth management strengths; and Guosen Securities for its retail advantages [5][6][7] Insurance Sector - The liability side is expected to achieve a "good start," with the transformation of dividend insurance continuing to progress. The demand for "savings" from residents is likely to persist, and the insurance distribution channel is expected to maintain high growth. On the asset side, stable long-term interest rates and a favorable equity market are expected to boost investment returns in the medium to long term [6][7]