Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating for the company, Oriental Selection (1797 HK), with a target price of 13.40, indicating a potential upside of 41.1% from the current price of 9.50 [5]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on a dual-driven strategy of traffic and products, with plans to enhance brand building and strengthen cooperation with Douyin [2][3]. - The company will diversify its product lines by developing both self-operated products and external products, aiming to expand its self-operated product system and build its own app platform [2]. - The company plans to establish offline service/experience stores based on its 800+ offline teaching points to attract foot traffic and increase brand exposure [3]. - The sale of Huixing will negatively impact the company's short-term GMV and profits, but it is expected that operations will stabilize once public sentiment improves [3]. Summary by Sections Company Strategy - The company will reallocate resources to strengthen brand building and continue to output quality content in cooperation with Douyin [2]. - Future strategic planning includes expanding self-operated and external product lines, promoting high-quality products in various provinces, and developing unique local products [2]. Marketing and Promotion - The company will engage in diverse activities that combine content and cultural products to enhance consumer interest, including collaborations with international development agencies and live interviews with authors [3]. - A matrix of accounts targeting niche audiences will be established to further enhance brand influence and traffic acquisition [3]. Financial Outlook - The report notes that the company's stock price dropped by 23% on July 26, and after excluding the profit contribution from Huixing, the corresponding P/E ratio for FY2025 is projected at 18 times [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company has been downgraded to Neutral [5] Core Views - The departure of key hosts is expected to lead to a significant decline in GMV, with a projected drop of 54.6% year-on-year to 6.94 billion RMB for the fiscal year 2025 [4] - Despite the decline in GMV, the revenue drop is expected to be controlled due to the increasing proportion of self-operated product sales, with a forecasted revenue of 5.56 billion RMB, a decrease of 19.2% year-on-year [4] - The adjustment in product mix is anticipated to compress gross margins, leading to a projected net profit of 129 million RMB, down 62.9% year-on-year [4][5] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - For FY2025, the company is expected to generate revenue of 5.56 billion RMB, down from the previous estimate of 7.38 billion RMB, reflecting a decrease of 24.6% [8] - The gross profit is projected to be 1.48 billion RMB, a decline of 40% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 26.6%, down 9.4 percentage points [4][8] - The net profit forecast for FY2025 is 129 million RMB, a significant drop from the previous estimate of 487 million RMB, indicating a decrease of 73.5% [8] Key Performance Indicators - The company’s revenue for FY2024 is projected at 6.88 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 52.5% [6] - The adjusted net profit for FY2025 is expected to be 282 million RMB, reflecting a decrease of 71.9% compared to previous estimates [8] - The net profit margin is projected to decline to 5.1% for FY2025, down from 12.4% [8][13]

Summary of Conference Call Transcript Company/Industry Involved - The discussion pertains to the overall market conditions and trends observed from mid-2022 to the end of 2023, indicating a focus on the broader economic environment rather than a specific company or industry. Core Points and Arguments - The period from mid-2022 to the end of 2023 has been characterized as an upward trend despite various challenges encountered along the way, suggesting resilience in the market conditions [1]. - The statement implies that the market was in a relatively good state during this timeframe, indicating potential opportunities for investment [1]. - It is noted that certain events occurred during this period that contributed to developments by the end of 2023, hinting at underlying factors that may have influenced market dynamics [1]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The mention of "磕磕绊绊的事情" (challenges) suggests that while the overall trend was positive, there were significant hurdles that could have impacted investor sentiment and market performance [1]. - The reference to events leading to the end of 2023 indicates that there may be critical insights or lessons learned that could inform future investment strategies [1].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" rating to the company, Dongfang Zhenxuan (1797 HK), with a target price of 13.40 HKD, reflecting an 8.1% upside from the closing price of 12.40 HKD [3]. Core Insights - Dongfang Zhenxuan announced the sale of its subsidiary, Yuhui Tongxing, to its former employee, Dong Yuhui, which is expected to impact the company's profits by over 20% for the fiscal year 2025. The sale price was 76.59 million RMB, equal to the net asset value of Yuhui Tongxing, resulting in no gain or loss from the transaction [1]. - The financial performance of Yuhui Tongxing for the first half of 2024 showed a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of approximately 3.5 billion RMB, contributing around 410 million RMB in revenue and 140 million RMB in profit, with a profit margin of 33% [1]. - Following the sale, the company plans to reallocate resources to strengthen its own brand and expand its self-operated products and live-streaming e-commerce business, aiming to better meet consumer demands [1]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Dongfang Zhenxuan is transitioning its business strategy by divesting from Yuhui Tongxing, which was previously wholly owned and contributed significantly to its revenue [1]. Financial Impact - The divestment is projected to lead to a reduction in GMV, revenue, and profit forecasts for fiscal year 2025 by 34%, 9%, and over 20% respectively, while also potentially reducing public relations risks [1]. Strategic Direction - The company intends to focus on its self-operated strategies and multi-platform development post-divestment, which may lead to more stable operations in the long term [1].

Company Rating - The report assigns a **Neutral** rating to **Oriental Selection (1797 HK)** [3] Core Viewpoints - Oriental Selection sold its subsidiary **Yu Hui Tong Xing** to Dong Yuhui, which is expected to impact the company's 2025 fiscal year profit by **20%+** [1] - The sale of Yu Hui Tong Xing is expected to reduce Oriental Selection's 2025 fiscal year GMV, revenue, and profit by **34%**, **9%**, and **20%+** respectively [1] - The sale is expected to have a short-term financial impact but may reduce public opinion risks, allowing management to focus on self-operated strategies and multi-platform development for long-term stability [1] Financial Impact of Yu Hui Tong Xing Sale - Yu Hui Tong Xing generated a net profit of **140 million RMB** in the first half of 2024 (from December 22, 2023, to June 30, 2024) [1] - The GMV of Yu Hui Tong Xing from January to June 2024 was approximately **3.5 billion RMB**, with a commission rate of **13%**, contributing **410 million RMB** in revenue and a profit margin of **33%** [1] - The sale price of Yu Hui Tong Xing was **76.59 million RMB**, equal to its net asset value, resulting in no gain or loss for Oriental Selection [1] Strategic Adjustments - Oriental Selection plans to reallocate resources to strengthen its own brand, expand self-operated products, and develop its live e-commerce business [1] - The company announced a share buyback plan of up to **500 million RMB** within the next year [1] Industry Coverage - The report covers multiple companies in the internet and education sectors, including **Baidu (BIDU US)**, **iQiyi (IQ US)**, **Kuaishou (1024 HK)**, **Bilibili (BILI US)**, **NetEase Cloud Music (9899 HK)**, **Tencent Music (TME US)**, **Pinduoduo (PDD US)**, **JD.com (JD US)**, **Alibaba (BABA US)**, **New Oriental Education (9901 HK)**, **Tencent (700 HK)**, and **Meituan (3690 HK)** [3] - Most companies in the internet and education sectors are rated as **Buy**, with potential upside ranging from **15.5%** to **88.0%** [3]

今天a股成交5900亿，成交量继续萎缩，但是市场中位数还好，上涨了0.49%，北上的外资净流出66亿，洋韭菜日常跑路。 国家队上午潜水，下午的时候有出来护盘指数etf，你们看这分时走势，买一下涨一波，买单一停就阴跌，咱也不知道咋形容这局面，真就是人人都想割 肉给国家呗。 除了沪深300外，我看了一下其它指数，上证50和中证500疑似也在买入，只是买量很少，远不及沪深300这么明显。自从2015年那次救市搞的鸡飞狗跳， 一大批人锒铛入狱后，这一次的救市在操作上可以想见的会很敏感，各方人员为了保护自己大概都是在授权范围内交易，自由度不会高的。 目前这种买法很难把大盘拉起来，但会有效的降低市场波动的烈度，也许这就是国家队交易的目的，用时间换空间，慢慢消化这波熊市的极端情绪，避免 大盘被砸到2500，而是阻滞在2700-2900一带筑底。 至于反攻的信号，可能是在等美元降息，也可能是人民币自己就先进一步降息，正好这两件事在今天都有一些进展。 美国公布了6月份的一系列数据，基本都在市场预期内，这让利率期货继续定价美联储9月份开始降息的押注，并且今年不止一次降息。 也就是在今天，央行开展2000亿元一年期MLF操作，中标 ...

社会服务 2024 年 07 月 05 日 东方甄选 (01797) ——自营产品销售稳步推进,经营指标回归常态 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 报告原因:调整投资评级 证 券 研 究 报 告 | 市场数据: | 2024 年 07 月 04 日 | |--------------------------|---------------------------------| | 收盘价(港币) | 13.08 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 6470.86 | | 52 周最高 / 最低(港币) | 46.80/11.80 | | H 股市值(亿港币) | 134.89 | | 流通 H 股(百万股) | 1031.3 | | 汇率(人民币/港币) | 1.0954 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势: -54% -4% 46% 96% 07/0308/0309/0310/0311/0312/0301/0302/0303/0304/0305/0306/03 HSCEI 东方甄选 资料来源:Bloomberg 增持(下调)投资要点: ⚫ 我们预计东方甄选24财年下半年(2023.12-2024.5)将实现收入4 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a maintained rating for the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The company has achieved a GMV of over 3.6 billion yuan for its self-operated products in FY24H2, representing a year-on-year growth of 108% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 74% [1]. - The company has launched over 400 self-operated products, with 80% being food and agricultural products, and over 100 products ranking in the top three on Douyin's product list [1]. - The overall positive feedback rate for self-operated products exceeds 95%, with a repurchase rate of 59% and over 25 million users for self-operated products [1]. - The company is expanding its self-operated product categories and has seen strong demand and excellent repurchase performance for several products [1]. - The self-operated app is becoming a core channel for sales, with over 90% of new products launched on the app since May, contributing to over 40% of the total GMV for popular products [1]. - The company plans to increase its Douyin accounts and live broadcasts, which may enhance overall GMV performance [1]. - The revenue forecasts for FY24-26 are 6.1 billion, 7.4 billion, and 9.1 billion yuan respectively, with adjusted net profits of 900 million, 1.04 billion, and 1.23 billion yuan, and corresponding EPS of 0.9, 1.0, and 1.2 yuan per share [1].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a Neutral rating to the company with a target price of HKD 13.40, indicating a potential upside of 3.4% from the current price of HKD 12.96 [1][2][17]. Core Views - The company is expected to face short-term profit uncertainty due to increased promotional efforts for self-operated products, which may lead to a decline in gross margin. However, profitability is anticipated to improve in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year 2024 as operations normalize post-strategic adjustments [1][7][11]. - The main account's GMV (Gross Merchandise Value) has faced challenges, with a decline in traffic growth and some GMV being diverted to other channels. The company is focusing on expanding its self-operated product offerings, which are projected to grow significantly in the coming years [1][11][23]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecast - For the fiscal year 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 6.557 billion, a year-on-year increase of 45%. The adjusted net profit is expected to be RMB 688 million, reflecting a 37% decrease compared to the previous fiscal year [2][9]. - The company anticipates a revenue growth of 13% in fiscal year 2025, reaching RMB 7.433 billion, with an adjusted net profit of RMB 836 million [2][9]. Multi-Channel Strategy - The company has established a multi-channel layout, including Douyin matrix accounts, Taobao live streaming, and its own app, which is expected to enhance GMV contributions from non-live sales channels [11][23]. - The self-operated product segment is rapidly expanding, with GMV expected to reach RMB 36 billion in the second half of fiscal year 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 108% [11][23]. Valuation - The report suggests a reasonable price-to-earnings ratio of 16 times based on the company's growth potential and profitability structure, leading to a valuation of HKD 145 billion [1][16][17]. - The valuation reflects a premium compared to other MCN (Multi-Channel Network) institutions due to the company's better profit margins and business ceiling [1][16].

Core Insights - Dongfang Zhenxuan has launched a new "hourly delivery" service in collaboration with JD Logistics, initially targeting the Beijing market, with plans to expand to more cities in the future [1][6] - The service aims to leverage the brand's existing fan base and the personal charm of its young hosts to differentiate itself from competitors like Meituan and JD [3][4] - Despite initial enthusiasm, the sales performance of the hourly delivery service has shown a downward trend, raising questions about its long-term viability and profitability [4][6] Group 1: Business Strategy - The "hourly delivery" service is part of Dongfang Zhenxuan's broader strategy to diversify its business, which includes self-operated products and a membership-based e-commerce app [2][6] - The company has been exploring various business models since launching its live streaming service in late 2021, including expanding its product offerings and establishing multiple live streaming accounts [6][7] - The service is designed to provide a new sales channel for self-operated products and stimulate interest in the capital markets [6][10] Group 2: Market Performance - The first live broadcast for the hourly delivery service estimated sales of 5,000 to 7,500 yuan, with a total estimated sales range of 10,000 to 25,000 yuan over ten broadcasts [4][6] - The product offerings in the hourly delivery service have been criticized for lacking variety and not emphasizing time-sensitive items, which may limit its appeal [4][10] - The overall market for instant retail is growing rapidly, with an estimated market size of 5,042.86 billion yuan in 2022, expected to triple by 2025 [10][11] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The instant retail market is highly competitive, with major players like Meituan and JD dominating the space, holding a combined market share of 75% [11] - Dongfang Zhenxuan's entry into the hourly delivery market comes at a time when competitors are already well-established, making it challenging to carve out a significant market share [10][11] - The effectiveness of Dongfang Zhenxuan's strategy will depend on its ability to leverage its existing user base and the unique appeal of its hosts to attract customers to the new service [3][10]