智通财经APP获悉，浦银国际发布研报称，基于信达生物(01801)积极的IBI363、IBI343数据，该行认为 两者短期内均具备不错的出海授权潜力，尤其是IBI363有希望成为解决PD-1耐药的重要疗法。该行预测 公司2025E/2026E/2027E归母净利润分别为4.3/8.5/18.9亿元。基于该行DCF估值模型(8.5%WACC，3%永 续增长率)，该行维持公司"买入"评级，上调目标价至95港元。 (1)IBI363+贝伐联用整体(n=73)显示出15.1%cORR，4.7个月mPFS，其中无肝转移人群31.3%cORR，7.4 个月mPFS(n=32)、3mg/kg剂量组19.4%cORR，5.6个月mPFS(n=31)。整体而言，联用数据与去年ESMO 披露的cORR数据趋势一致，更新的PFS数据依旧显示无肝转移mPFS人群是潜在生存获益最多的人群。 (2)IBI363单用整体(n=68)mOS为16.1个月，与摘要内容维持一致，但额外披露了是否肝转移亚组的 mOS，即肝转移人群/无肝转移人群mOS分别为14.4/17.0个月，每个亚组均显著高于呋喹替尼在3L CRC 的mOS(9.3个月)，令 ...

机构：浦银国际 研究员：阳景/胡泽宇 继5 月23 日ASCO 摘要内容公布之后（详情请见我们上篇解读报告），公司于ASCO 口头报告环节分别 就IBI363（PD-1/IL-2）在3 个适应症上提供了额外4 个月随访的数据，IBI343 (CLDN18.2 ADC)在胰腺 癌适应症提供了额外2 个多月的随访数据。整体而言，大部分数据与先前摘要内容趋势类似，主要惊喜 在于IBI363 3mg/kg 剂量组在IO 经治sq-NSCLCmPFS 数据延长至9.3 个月，进一步提升我们对于IBI363 在肺鳞癌发展的信心。基于积极的数据，上调目标价至95 港元，重申首选推荐。 IBI363 3mg/kg 剂量组在IO 经治肺鳞癌mPFS 数据进一步延长至9.3个月，较摘要内容数据提升，更加增 强了我们对IBI363 在肺鳞癌发展的信心。（1）首先，与摘要内容一致的是，在IO 经治NSCLC 适应症 中，无论是在肺鳞癌（或sq-NSCLC）中还是EGFR 野生型肺腺癌（或EGFRwt Ad-NSCLC）中，3mg/kg 剂量组均观察到比≤1.5mg/kg 剂量组的更好的疗效数据（更高cORR、更长mPFS）。（2）另 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 95, representing a potential upside of 17% from the current price of HKD 81.1 [2][9][10] Core Insights - The report highlights positive updates on IBI363 and IBI343, with IBI363 showing an extended median progression-free survival (mPFS) of 9.3 months in the 3 mg/kg dose group for IO-treated squamous non-small cell lung cancer (sq-NSCLC), enhancing confidence in its development for lung squamous carcinoma [1][7][10] - The company is expected to initiate Phase 3 registration clinical trials for IBI363 in the 3L+ sq-NSCLC setting, with the 3 mg/kg dose likely to be used [7][10] - Financial projections indicate a significant increase in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with expected revenues of RMB 11.7 billion in 2025 and a net profit of RMB 433 million [9][10] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 6.2 billion in 2023 to RMB 15.8 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 36.2% [9][10] - The adjusted net profit is expected to turn positive in 2025, reaching RMB 1.03 billion by 2025 and RMB 2.66 billion by 2027 [9][10] - The report anticipates peak sales for IBI363 in China to reach approximately RMB 2.5 billion and for IBI343 to reach around RMB 1.5 billion, both on a risk-adjusted basis [10]

研究报告 Research Report 9 Jun 2025 信达生物 Innovent Biologics (1801 HK) 2025 ASCO 数据超预期，创新潜力不断兑现 2025 ASCO Data Beats Expectations, Validating Sustained Innovation Execution [Table_yemei 观点聚焦 1] Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$73.15 目标价 HK$90.10 HTI ESG 3.6-1.4-3.5 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$120.81bn / US$15.40bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$146.21mn 发行股票数目 1,652mn 自由流通股 (%) 93% 1 年股价最高最低值 HK$74.25-HK$30.00 注：现价 HK$73.15 为 2025 年 06 月 06 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Innovent Biologics with a target price of HK$90.10, up from a previous target of HK$62.50 [2][10]. Core Insights - Innovent Biologics showcased its strong oncology R&D capabilities at the 2025 ASCO Annual Meeting, with eight studies selected for oral presentation, highlighting the efficacy and safety of IBI363 and IBI343 in various cancer types [3][15][16]. - The data presented for IBI363 in advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and colorectal cancer (CRC) indicates its potential as a backbone therapy for next-generation immuno-oncology treatments, demonstrating robust tumor responses and long-term survival benefits [4][16]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Innovent Biologics are set at RMB 11.86 billion for 2025, with a growth rate of 26% compared to the previous year, and expected to reach RMB 18.17 billion by 2027 [10][13]. - The company is projected to turn profitable in 2025, with a net profit of RMB 384 million, and further growth to RMB 1.77 billion by 2027 [10][13]. Clinical Data Highlights - IBI363 monotherapy showed a median progression-free survival (mPFS) of 9.3 months in advanced NSCLC, outperforming standard therapies [5][19]. - In MSS-type colorectal cancer patients, IBI363 demonstrated a median overall survival (mOS) of 16.1 months, significantly longer than the typical 9-10 months seen with current therapies [8][20]. - The efficacy of IBI363 in treating acral and mucosal melanoma was also notable, achieving a confirmed objective response rate (ORR) of 23.3% in a historically difficult-to-treat population [22].

Group 1 - Southbound funds net bought HKD 717 million in Hong Kong stocks on June 9, with notable net purchases in companies like Innovent Biologics (HKD 1.125 billion), Meituan (HKD 1.046 billion), and Li Auto (HKD 452 million) [1] - Tencent Holdings saw a significant net sell-off of HKD 2.141 billion, marking a continuous seven-day net sell totaling HKD 8.05292 billion [1] - Meituan has experienced a continuous net buy for 16 days, accumulating a total of HKD 17.52673 billion [1] Group 2 - Innovent Biologics' stock rose by 8% to HKD 79 per share, driven by positive clinical data presented at the ASCO annual meeting [5] - Goldman Sachs upgraded Innovent Biologics' risk-adjusted sales forecast for IBI363 from USD 1.4 billion to USD 3.2 billion, anticipating its market launch in 2028 [5] - Tencent Holdings' stock slightly increased by 0.58% to HKD 518 per share, with the company repurchasing 968,000 shares at prices ranging from HKD 513 to HKD 520.5 [5] Group 3 - Xiaomi Group's stock rose by 1.98% to HKD 54.15 per share, with over 250,000 units of the Xiaomi SU7 delivered [5]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced significant net inflows from northbound capital, with a total net buy of 717 million HKD on June 9, 2023, indicating strong investor interest in certain stocks, particularly in the innovative pharmaceutical sector and local businesses like Meituan [1][2]. Group 1: Northbound Capital Inflows and Outflows - Northbound capital had a net buy of 12.47 billion HKD through the Shenzhen Stock Connect and a net sell of 5.3 billion HKD through the Shanghai Stock Connect [1]. - The stocks with the highest net inflows included Xinda Bio (01801), Meituan-W (03690), and Li Auto-W (02015) [1]. - The stocks with the highest net outflows were Tencent (00700), Xiaomi Group-W (01810), and Alibaba-W (09988) [1]. Group 2: Active Stocks and Their Performance - Meituan-W (03690) saw a net buy of 10.46 billion HKD, supported by strong fundamentals and a solid merchant base [5]. - Xinda Bio (01801) received a net buy of 7.73 billion HKD, benefiting from favorable developments in the pharmaceutical sector [4]. - Alibaba-W (09988) and Tencent (00700) faced significant net sells of 9.39 billion HKD and 21.41 billion HKD, respectively, due to concerns over capital expenditures and cloud revenue growth [6]. Group 3: Sector Trends and Insights - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is gaining traction, with Xinda Bio, Shiyao Group, and Sanofi Pharmaceutical receiving substantial net buys, reflecting a positive outlook for domestic innovative drugs [4]. - The automotive sector showed mixed results, with Li Auto-W (02015) gaining 4.52 billion HKD while Xiaomi Group-W (01810) faced a net sell of 14.52 billion HKD, indicating ongoing challenges in the industry [5]. - The banking sector, represented by China Bank (03988), attracted a net buy of 326.7 million HKD, driven by stable fundamentals and dividend attractiveness [6].

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley raised the target price for Innovent Biologics (01801.HK) from HKD 74 to HKD 84, maintaining an "Overweight" rating [1] - The increase in target price is attributed to upcoming catalysts and updates following the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) meeting [1] - The positive data on overall survival for IBI363 presented at the ASCO conference is expected to drive further stock performance [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley anticipates that the drug MaShidu will receive approval in China within 1 to 2 months, potentially providing additional stock options [1] - The sales forecast for IBI363 has been raised by approximately 95% post-ASCO meeting, along with an increase in pipeline valuation [1] - The firm holds a moderate sales expectation for MaShidu in 2025 [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 95.42 HKD, compared to the last closing price of 74.25 HKD [1][10]. Core Views - The report highlights that the clinical data for IBI363, a dual-specific antibody fusion protein, has exceeded expectations in treating advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), colorectal cancer (CRC), and melanoma [3][4][5][6]. - The company is expected to see significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 94.22 billion HKD in 2024, increasing to 207.91 billion HKD by 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 51.82% in 2024 and 31.60% in 2027 [11][15]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The total share capital is 1.65 billion shares, with a total market capitalization of 1,225 billion HKD [2]. - The company has a strong pipeline with multiple important developments expected in 2025, including approvals for various treatments [9]. Clinical Data - IBI363 showed a median progression-free survival (mPFS) of 9.3 months and a 12-month overall survival (OS) rate of 70.9% in patients with immune-resistant lung squamous cell carcinoma [4]. - In CRC patients, IBI363 demonstrated a median overall survival (mOS) of 16.1 months, indicating a significant improvement over existing treatment options [5]. - For melanoma, IBI363 achieved an mPFS of 5.7 months, with ongoing trials comparing it to pembrolizumab in treatment-naive patients [6]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 6.23 billion HKD in 2025, with a significant increase to 30.77 billion HKD by 2027, reflecting a net profit growth rate of 132.26% in 2027 [11][15]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from -0.06 HKD in 2024 to 1.87 HKD in 2027 [11][15]. Valuation - The valuation methods used include DCF and NPV, resulting in a target market value of 1,574 billion HKD, which corresponds to the target stock price of 95.42 HKD [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 84.00, indicating a potential upside of 16.2% from the current price of HKD 72.30 [4][14]. Core Insights - The early data for IBI363 in lung cancer is encouraging, revealing a significant market opportunity. The target price has been raised due to the inclusion of IBI363 in the valuation model, with an estimated peak sales potential of approximately USD 1.5 billion by 2028 [2][7]. - The company plans to initiate a Phase III registration study for IBI363 in squamous NSCLC patients who have failed prior PD-(L)1 therapy, having received breakthrough therapy designation from CDE [7][10]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections show a strong growth trajectory, with expected revenues of RMB 6,206 million in 2023, increasing to RMB 17,071 million by 2027, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 36.2% from 2023 to 2024 and 20.0% from 2026 to 2027 [3][15]. - The net profit is projected to turn positive in 2025, with an estimated net profit of RMB 751 million, growing to RMB 3,242 million by 2027 [3][15]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve significantly, moving from a loss of RMB 0.66 in 2023 to a profit of RMB 1.97 by 2027 [3][15]. Clinical Data Highlights - IBI363 demonstrated an overall response rate (ORR) of 26-37% in squamous NSCLC patients, with a median progression-free survival (PFS) of 5.5-9.3 months and a median overall survival (OS) exceeding 15.3 months [7][8]. - In the non-squamous NSCLC cohort, the ORR was 24% with a median PFS of 5.6 months, indicating the drug's potential effectiveness in a challenging treatment landscape [7][9]. Market Potential - The report highlights a significant unmet need in the second-line treatment for I/O resistant NSCLC patients, with current therapies showing an ORR of less than 20% and median PFS/OS of less than 4 months/12 months [7][10]. - The global sales for PD-(L)1 drugs are projected to exceed USD 40 billion in 2024, underscoring the substantial market opportunity for effective therapies like IBI363 [7].