Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 65.0 [1][6]. Core Insights - The company has launched multiple new products, including the Yu7 vehicle and the O1 and T1 chips, with the O1 chip's performance exceeding expectations, indicating a successful R&D investment in the chip sector [6][8]. - The company's "human-vehicle-home" ecosystem strategy is showing positive results, with automotive sales expected to be a significant growth driver in the future [6]. - The founder's increasing influence on consumers is expected to support the launch of new products [6]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, the company is projected to achieve a net profit of RMB 17,475 million, with a year-on-year growth of 606% [7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is forecasted to be RMB 1.57, reflecting a 66% increase from the previous year [7]. - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from RMB 270,970 million in 2023 to RMB 495,673 million in 2025, representing a significant increase [8]. Product Performance - The O1 chip features a ten-core SOC with superior performance metrics compared to competitors, indicating the company's advancements in chip technology [8]. - The Yu7 vehicle boasts a range of 835 km and a 0-100 km/h acceleration time of 5.88 seconds, positioning it competitively in the SUV market [8]. Sales Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 1,090 million, a 49% year-on-year increase, with adjusted net profit rising by 69.4% [8]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw significant growth in home appliance sales, with air conditioner sales up 103% and refrigerator sales up 145% [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 65.0 [6][8]. Core Insights - The company has launched several new products, including the Yu7 vehicle and the O1 and T1 chips, with the O1 chip's performance exceeding expectations, indicating a successful R&D investment in the chip sector [6][8]. - The company's "human-vehicle-home" ecosystem strategy is showing positive results, with automotive sales expected to be a significant growth driver in the future [6][8]. - The company achieved record high earnings in Q4 2024, with a revenue of RMB 365.9 billion, a 35% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of RMB 23.7 billion, also up 35% year-on-year [8]. Summary by Sections Company Basic Information - The company operates in the electronics industry, with an H-share price of HKD 53.20 as of May 22, 2025, and a market capitalization of RMB 51.27 billion [2]. - The stock has seen a significant increase of 174% over the past month and 19.8% over the past year [2]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of RMB 39.32 billion in 2025, representing a 66% year-on-year growth, with EPS expected to be RMB 1.57 [7][8]. - Revenue is forecasted to grow from RMB 270.97 billion in 2023 to RMB 495.67 billion in 2025, with a corresponding increase in gross profit [7][8]. Product Performance - The O1 chip features a ten-core SOC with superior performance metrics compared to competitors, indicating the company's advancements in chip technology [8]. - The Yu7 vehicle boasts a range of 835 km and a 0-100 km/h acceleration time of 5.88 seconds, positioning it competitively in the SUV market [8]. Investment Recommendations - Due to the strong performance in the home appliance sector, the annual profit forecast has been raised by 18%, with expected net profits of RMB 39.3 billion, RMB 48.2 billion, and RMB 60.3 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [8]. - The target price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 32x for 2025, indicating a favorable investment opportunity [8].

小米集团-W(01810) 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 22 日 小米战略新品发布会前瞻 ——小米集团点评报告 本次发布会手机芯片 SoC 芯片玄戒 o1 将亮相，小米成为继苹果、高通、联发科 后全球第四家发布自主研发设计 3nm 制程手机芯片的企业。雷军在官方微博中 提及，小米从 2014 年开启手机芯片研发之旅，期间小芯片陆续面世，如快充芯 片、电池管理芯片、影像芯片、天线增强芯片等，并于 2021 年重新开始研发 SoC，并制定了至少投入 10 年，至少投资 500 亿的长期计划。截至 25 年 4 月底 玄戒累计研发投入已经超过 135 亿人民币，预计 25 年研发投入超过 60 亿，研发 团队超过 2500 人。 ❑ 将发布小米 15S Pro，搭载玄戒 o1，产品体验值得期待，也为小米产品在 AI 时 代保持竞争力提供基础。 我们能从苹果和华为的案例看到，搭载自研芯片+OS 的产品能带来差异化的产品 体验，并提升品牌价值。在"小米终端+玄戒 SoC+澎湃 OS+MiMo 推理模型"的 全自研产品矩阵下，可以期待 15S Pro 带来超预期的产品体验和销量。 ❑ YU7 发布会有望开启小订，时 ...

小米集团-W(01810) 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 22 日 小米战略新品发布会前瞻 ——小米集团点评报告 投资要点 财务摘要 | [单位Table_Forcast] /百万 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 365906 | 481844 | 636475 | 716471 | | (+/-) (%) | 35% | 32% | 32% | 13% | | 归母净利润 | 23658 | 32198 | 51439 | 55423 | | (+/-) (%) | 35% | 36% | 60% | 8% | | 每股收益(元) | 0.95 | 1.24 | 1.98 | 2.14 | | P/E | 33.59 | 40.59 | 25.41 | 23.58 | 资料来源：浙商证券研究所 本次发布会手机芯片 SoC 芯片玄戒 o1 将亮相，小米成为继苹果、高通、联发科 后全球第四家发布自主研发设计 3nm 制程手机芯片的企业。雷军在官方微博中 提及，小米从 2014 年开启手机芯片 ...

智通财经APP获悉，小米(01810)将于晚上7时举行小米战略新品发布会，届时将会推出全新手机SoC芯 片玄戒O1、全新旗舰手机小米15SPro、小米平板 7 Ultra以及小米汽车首款SUV 小米YU7。小米董事长 兼CEO雷军于微博预告称，小米YU7预计7月正式上市，今晚预发布会，不会公布正式价格，亦不会开 启小定。 值得注意的是，小米自主研发的手机SoC芯片"玄戒O1"是本次发布会最大的焦点。雷军在回顾小米的造 芯历程时感慨万千，从2014年立项澎湃S1芯片遭遇挫折，到转向快充、影像等"小芯片"领域积累技术经 验，再到2021年毅然重启大芯片研发，并制定"十年500亿"的长期投入计划，小米在芯片之路上可谓是 披荆斩棘。截至今年4月底，玄戒项目累计研发投入已超过135亿人民币，研发团队规模超过2500人。 从技术参数来看，"玄戒O1"采用第二代3nm工艺制程，晶体管数量高达190亿颗。其CPU为"1+3+4"八核 三丛集设计（Cortex-X4超大核+A720中核+A520能效核），GPU性能对标骁龙8Gen3，安兔兔跑分高达 192万+，AI算力达40TOPS。Geekbench6测试数据显示，该芯片单 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group with a target price yet to be specified [3][11]. Core Insights - Xiaomi's release of its first self-developed mobile SoC, the Xuanjie O1, marks a significant milestone, positioning the company among the top global smartphone hardware manufacturers [1]. - The self-developed chip is expected to enhance Xiaomi's competitiveness in the high-end smartphone market, which remains a critical area for growth [2]. - The synergy between Xiaomi's self-developed chips, operating systems, and automotive business is anticipated to drive revenue growth and improve user experience [3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Xiaomi has invested in chip development since 2014, culminating in the launch of the Xuanjie O1 in May 2025, making it one of the two domestic manufacturers with self-developed chip capabilities [1]. Market Position - The self-developed SoC is seen as a strategic move to break into the high-end market segment (priced above 6000 RMB) and to establish a competitive edge through enhanced user experience and scale effects [2]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts Xiaomi's total revenue to reach 471.8 billion RMB in 2025 and 679.7 billion RMB in 2026, with net profits adjusted for shareholders expected to be 42.9 billion RMB and 85.5 billion RMB respectively [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group with a target price yet to be specified [3][11]. Core Insights - Xiaomi's release of its first self-developed mobile SoC, "Xuanjie O1," marks a significant milestone, positioning the company among the top global mobile hardware manufacturers [1]. - The self-developed chip is expected to enhance Xiaomi's competitiveness in the high-end smartphone market, which remains a critical area for growth [2]. - The synergy between Xiaomi's mobile, OS, and chip development is anticipated to drive innovation and improve user experience across its product lines [3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Xiaomi has invested in chip development since 2014, culminating in the launch of its first SoC in May 2025, making it one of the two domestic manufacturers with self-developed chip capabilities [1]. Market Positioning - The self-developed SoC is seen as a strategic move to break into the high-end smartphone segment, which is crucial for Xiaomi's growth [2]. - The report suggests that the self-developed chip will provide Xiaomi with a competitive edge through improved user experience and scale effects [2]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts Xiaomi's total revenue to reach 471.8 billion CNY in 2025 and 679.7 billion CNY in 2026, with net profit estimates of 42.9 billion CNY and 85.5 billion CNY respectively [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group with a target price of 76.88 HKD, indicating an expected return of over 20% within the next six months [6][5]. Core Insights - Xiaomi's smartphone shipments in China have returned to the top position, with a total of 13.3 million units shipped in Q1 2025, representing a 40% year-on-year growth and capturing a 19% market share [1]. - The AIoT segment is expected to see a revenue increase of 52% year-on-year to 30.93 billion CNY in Q1 2025, with a gross margin projected to rise to 24.1% [2]. - The YU7 model is anticipated to launch between June and July 2025, with multiple range options, potentially replicating the sales success of the SU7 model [2]. - Xiaomi's automotive production capacity is set to expand, with the Beijing factory expected to start operations mid-year, contributing to a total capacity of 300,000 vehicles [3]. - The report projects Xiaomi's total revenue for 2025 and 2026 to be 471.8 billion CNY and 679.7 billion CNY respectively, with net profit estimates adjusted to 42.9 billion CNY and 85.5 billion CNY [4]. Summary by Sections Smartphone Business - Xiaomi's smartphone business is expected to grow by 8% year-on-year in Q1 2025, reaching 50.42 billion CNY with a gross margin of 12.5% [1]. AIoT Segment - The AIoT segment is projected to grow significantly, with a revenue forecast of 30.93 billion CNY in Q1 2025 and a gross margin increase to 24.1% [2]. Automotive Business - The SU7 model's delivery reached 76,000 units in Q1 2025, generating an estimated revenue of 18.8 billion CNY with a gross margin of 22.5% [3]. - The forecast for total automotive shipments in 2025 has been raised to 400,000 units [3]. Financial Projections - The report revises total revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 471.8 billion CNY and 679.7 billion CNY, respectively, with adjusted net profit estimates of 42.9 billion CNY and 85.5 billion CNY [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group with a target price of HK$70.00, indicating a potential upside of approximately 40% from the current price of HK$50.10 [2][7][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights that operational leverage will be a key highlight for Xiaomi in the upcoming quarters, particularly driven by strong growth in the IoT segment and strategic adjustments in the smartphone market [3][4]. - The anticipated strong performance in Q1 2025 is attributed to national subsidies supporting large appliances and consumer electronics, with IoT revenue expected to grow by 51% year-on-year to RMB 30.7 billion [3]. - The report notes a significant decline in smartphone shipments in the Indian market, down 38% year-on-year, reflecting Xiaomi's strategic withdrawal from this market due to slowing structural growth [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, Xiaomi's IoT business is projected to generate RMB 30.7 billion, while smartphone revenue is expected to reach RMB 50.2 billion, reflecting an 8% year-on-year increase [3][13]. - The report forecasts adjusted net profit for Q1 2025 to be around RMB 10.2 billion, with a gross margin of 20.8% for the electric vehicle segment [3][4]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the investor day in June and the launch of the YU7 electric vehicle in July will serve as important catalysts for Xiaomi's stock performance [4]. - It is expected that Xiaomi will continue to focus on increasing smartphone prices to navigate potential downturns in global markets, particularly in India and Latin America [4][15]. Earnings Forecast Adjustments - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been increased by 1%-3% due to rising electric vehicle shipments, with adjusted net profit for 2025 now estimated at RMB 40.1 billion, up from a previous estimate of RMB 34.9 billion [5][14]. - The report also revises the earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025 to RMB 1.57, reflecting a 15% increase from earlier projections [8][14]. Valuation - The target valuation multiple has been adjusted from 35.0x to 32.0x based on the 2026 adjusted net profit, reflecting the macroeconomic uncertainties impacting global trade [15][16]. - The report emphasizes that Xiaomi's high-end strategy and the growth of its electric vehicle business are expected to drive future profitability [15][16].

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley believes that Xiaomi Group's smartphone, AIoT, internet, and electric vehicle businesses will continue to expand market share, potentially leading to a stock price exceeding 100 HKD by 2030 [1] - The target price for Xiaomi Group has been raised by 38% from 45 HKD to 62 HKD, maintaining an "Overweight" rating [1] - The launch of the Xiaomi SU7 Ultra marks the beginning of its luxury car journey, with electric vehicles and smartphone + AIoT + internet sectors serving as dual growth engines [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley forecasts that Xiaomi's total revenue could exceed 100 billion RMB and net profit could surpass 100 billion RMB by 2030, potentially valuing the company at 2.5 trillion RMB [1] - The estimated enterprise value has been adjusted from 204 billion RMB to 497 billion RMB, indicating upward risks in product mix, average selling price, and profit margins [1] - The forecast for electric vehicle sales has been increased to 370,000 units in 2025 and 750,000 units in 2026, with gross margins rising to 20.7% and 22.2% respectively [2] - Cumulative gross profit from electric vehicles is projected to grow from 48.1 billion RMB to 67.6 billion RMB from 2024 to 2026 [2] - Revenue from three traditional business segments is expected to rise from 333 billion RMB in 2024 to 600 billion RMB by 2030, with profits increasing from 33.4 billion RMB to 70 billion RMB in the same period [2]