电子/消费电子 小米集团-W（01810.HK） 2025Q2 业绩有望继续向上，汽车 Yu7 发布仍是催化 2025 年 05 月 29 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/5/28 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(港元) | 51.750 | | 一年最高最低(港元) | 59.450/15.360 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 13,427.77 | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 13,427.77 | | 总股本(亿股) | 259.47 | | 流通港股(亿股) | 259.47 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 72.09 | 2025Q2 业绩有望继续向上，当前舆论环境低谷、Yu7 7 月发布仍是正面催化 2025 年各项业务向好驱动核心业务净利润增长、汽车等新业务亏损收敛驱动整 体净利润如期释放。我们将 2025-2027 年盈利预测由 389/552/624 亿元上调至 471/674/731 亿元，对应同比增长 73%/43%/9%。当前股价 51.75 港币对应 2025-2027 年 25.7/18.0/16.6 倍 PE。我们预计受益于二季度促销旺季、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 67.9, indicating a potential upside of 29.28% from the current price of HKD 52.50 [5][8]. Core Insights - The company achieved revenue of RMB 111.3 billion in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 47.4%, surpassing market expectations of RMB 109 billion. The overall gross margin improved to 22.8%, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 10.9 billion, reflecting a 161.0% increase year-on-year [1]. - The smartphone segment returned to the top position in the domestic market with revenue of RMB 50.6 billion, a growth of 8.9%. The market share reached 18.8%, with a shipment increase of 40%, significantly outpacing the industry growth rate of 4.6% [2]. - The IoT segment saw a revenue increase of 58.7% to RMB 32.3 billion, with a gross margin of 25.2%, marking a historical high. The growth was driven by a doubling in revenue from smart home appliances [3]. - The automotive business reported revenue of RMB 18.6 billion, with a gross margin of 23.2%. The new luxury SUV model YU7 received a positive market response, indicating potential for increased average selling price (ASP) [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, the company reported total revenue of RMB 270.97 billion, with an adjusted net profit of RMB 19.27 billion, reflecting a 126.26% increase year-on-year. Forecasts for 2025 and 2026 predict revenues of RMB 495.65 billion and RMB 627.04 billion, respectively, with adjusted net profits of RMB 45.56 billion and RMB 57.75 billion [6][10]. Market Position - The company has regained its position as the leading smartphone vendor in China, with a significant increase in high-end smartphone shipments, contributing to a rise in average selling price (ASP) to RMB 1,211 [2]. - The IoT segment's growth is attributed to the increasing demand for smart home devices, with a notable rise in gross margin due to government subsidies and a higher proportion of large appliances [3]. Future Outlook - The company plans to invest RMB 200 billion in R&D from 2026 to 2030, focusing on AI and chip technology to strengthen its competitive edge [1]. - The automotive segment is expected to continue its recovery, with the YU7 model anticipated to enhance the company's market competitiveness and ASP [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 67.9, indicating a potential upside of 29.28% from the current price of HKD 52.50 [6][10]. Core Insights - The company reported revenue of RMB 111.3 billion for Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 47.4%, surpassing market expectations of RMB 109 billion. The overall gross margin improved to 22.8%, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year. Net profit reached RMB 10.9 billion, a significant year-on-year increase of 161.0%, with adjusted net profit at RMB 10.7 billion, up 64.5%, exceeding market expectations of RMB 9.1 billion [2]. - The company aims to invest RMB 200 billion in R&D from 2026 to 2030 to strengthen its technological moat, with a focus on AI and chip technology, expecting to invest RMB 7.5 billion in AI this year [2]. - The smartphone segment saw revenue of RMB 50.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%, with a market share of 18.8%, marking a return to the top position in domestic smartphone shipments after ten years. The average selling price (ASP) of smartphones increased by 5.8% to RMB 1,211 [3]. - The Internet of Things (IoT) segment experienced explosive growth, with revenue increasing by 58.7% to RMB 32.3 billion, and a gross margin of 25.2%, up 5.4 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The automotive business reported revenue of RMB 18.6 billion, with a gross margin of 23.2%, and a significant reduction in operating losses, with the new luxury SUV model YU7 receiving positive market feedback [5]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 495.6 billion, RMB 627.0 billion, and RMB 721.4 billion, respectively. Adjusted net profits are expected to be RMB 45.6 billion, RMB 57.8 billion, and RMB 70.2 billion for the same years [6][7]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 21.21% in 2023 to 23.33% by 2027, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency and product mix [13]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to grow significantly from RMB 0.69 in 2023 to RMB 2.61 in 2027, indicating a robust growth trajectory [7][13].

小米集团-W（01810.HK） 自研"玄戒 O1"正式发布，持续完善"人车家"全生态 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 270,970.14 | 365,906.35 | 482,996.38 | 576,118.08 | 673,424.43 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | -3.24 | 35.04 | 32.00 | 19.28 | 16.89 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 17,475.17 | 23,658.13 | 30,947.99 | 40,008.34 | 50,172.45 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 606.34 | 35.38 | 30.81 | 29.28 | 25.40 | | ROE（%） | 10.66 | 12.53 | 14.09 | 15.41 | 16.19 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 0.67 | 0.91 | 1.19 | 1.54 | 1.93 | | P/E（倍） | 76. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Xiaomi Group [6] Core Views - Xiaomi Group achieved record revenue of 1112.93 billion RMB in Q1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 47.4% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 2.1% [2] - The company continues to advance its all-ecosystem strategy, with significant growth in IOT and automotive sectors, contributing to overall revenue growth [2][3] - The company is investing 200 billion RMB over the next five years to deepen its core technology capabilities, including the launch of its self-developed 3nm flagship SoC chip [4] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, Xiaomi's adjusted net profit reached 106.76 billion RMB, up 64.5% year-over-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 9.6% [2][3] - The IOT business generated revenue of 323.39 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 58.7%, with a gross margin of 25.2% [3] - The smartphone segment reported revenue of 506.12 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 8.9%, with a gross margin of 12.4% [3] - The automotive segment achieved revenue of 185.80 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 23.2% [3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 5062.65 billion RMB, 6052.13 billion RMB, and 7008.88 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding net profits of 357.09 billion RMB, 457.75 billion RMB, and 598.89 billion RMB [4][5] - The report anticipates a PE ratio of 35 for 2025, decreasing to 21 by 2027 [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The company achieved a record revenue of 1112.93 billion RMB in Q1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 47.4% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 2.1% [2][3] - Adjusted net profit reached 106.76 billion RMB, up 64.5% year-over-year and 28.4% quarter-over-quarter, with an adjusted net profit margin of 9.6% [2][3] - The company is focusing on its all-ecosystem strategy, which includes smartphones, AI, and IoT, contributing to robust growth across its business segments [2][3] Revenue Breakdown - The smartphone and AIoT segment generated revenue of 927.13 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 22.8% [2] - The IoT business saw revenue of 323.39 billion RMB, up 58.7% year-over-year, driven by a doubling of income from smart home appliances [3] - The automotive segment generated 185.80 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 23.2%, despite a quarterly operating loss of 5 billion RMB [3] Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 5062.65 billion RMB, 6052.13 billion RMB, and 7008.88 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] - Expected net profits for the same years are projected at 357.09 billion RMB, 457.75 billion RMB, and 598.89 billion RMB [4] - The report anticipates a decrease in P/E ratios from 35 in 2025 to 21 in 2027, indicating potential growth in profitability [4] Research and Development - The company plans to invest 200 billion RMB in core technology over the next five years, with R&D spending reaching 67 billion RMB in Q1 2025, a 30.1% increase year-over-year [4]

小米集团-W(01810):升目标价至70港元,重申"买入"评级 大和发布研报称，将小米集团-W(52.3,0.75,1.46%)（01810）目标价从65港元上调7.7%至70港元，仍然基 于2025-26年38倍的综合市盈率和电动汽车业务4.4倍的市销率。该行重申"买入"评级。 报告指，小米2025年第一季业绩强劲，经调整净利超出市场预期13%。物联网和电动汽车毛利率（GPM）令 人惊喜，分别比市场预期高出4个百分点和2个百分点。该行认为，即将于6月3日举行的投资者日和7月YU7的上 市带来的利多消息将成为短期催化剂。基于目前上调的电动车和物联网毛利率预测，该行将2025-27年每股盈 测调高8-19%。 大和证券 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 75.52 HKD based on a 38x PE valuation for 2026 [3][10]. Core Insights - The company achieved record high revenue and adjusted net profit in Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 111.3 billion CNY, a 47% year-on-year increase, and adjusted net profit of 10.7 billion CNY, up 64% year-on-year [9]. - The smartphone segment showed significant growth, with a 9% increase in revenue to 50.6 billion CNY and a global market share of 14.1%, ranking among the top three globally [9]. - The IoT and lifestyle products segment also saw strong performance, with revenue of 32.3 billion CNY, a 59% increase, and a gross margin of 25.2% [9]. - The internet services segment reported revenue of 9.1 billion CNY, a 13% increase, with a gross margin of 76.9% [9]. - The electric vehicle segment generated 18.6 billion CNY in revenue, with a gross margin of 23.2%, and the company continues to expand its sales network [9]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 477.67 billion CNY, 575.30 billion CNY, and 690.22 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 31%, 20%, and 20% [5][10]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are 35.12 billion CNY, 47.32 billion CNY, and 59.00 billion CNY, with growth rates of 48%, 35%, and 25% [5][10]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 22.5% in 2025 to 23.1% in 2027, while net profit margin is projected to increase from 7.4% to 8.5% [5][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 is 1.35 CNY, 1.82 CNY, and 2.27 CNY, respectively [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group with a target price of 75.52 HKD, based on a 38x PE valuation for comparable companies in 2026 [3][10]. Core Insights - The company achieved record high revenue and adjusted net profit in Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 111.3 billion CNY, a 47% year-on-year increase, and adjusted net profit of 10.7 billion CNY, up 64% year-on-year [9]. - Xiaomi's smartphone shipments increased, with a market share of 14.1% globally, ranking among the top three, and a significant return to the top position in China's market with a share of 18.8% [9]. - The IoT and lifestyle products segment also saw strong growth, with revenue of 32.3 billion CNY, a 59% increase year-on-year, and a gross margin of 25.2% [9]. - The internet services segment reported revenue of 9.1 billion CNY, a 13% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 76.9% [9]. - The electric vehicle segment generated 18.6 billion CNY in revenue, with a gross margin of 23.2%, and the company continues to expand its sales network [9]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 477.67 billion CNY, 575.30 billion CNY, and 690.22 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 31%, 20%, and 20% [5]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are 35.12 billion CNY, 47.32 billion CNY, and 59.00 billion CNY, with growth rates of 48%, 35%, and 25% [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 are 1.35 CNY, 1.82 CNY, and 2.27 CNY, respectively [5][10]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 22.5% in 2025 to 23.1% in 2027, while the net margin is projected to increase from 7.4% to 8.5% over the same period [5].

小米集团-W（01810.HK） 25Q1 业绩再创新高，汽车、IoT 表现超预期 TMT 及中小盘/电子 事件：公司发布 2025 年一季度业绩，25Q1 营收 1113 亿元，同比+47.4%/环 比+2.1%；经调整净利润 106.8 亿元，同比+64.5%/环比+28.4%，首次突破百 亿大关。我们评论如下： 证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 05 月 28 日 强烈推荐（维持） 目标估值：NA 当前股价：51.3 港元 基础数据 ❑ 25Q1 营收持续超千亿，经调整净利润首次突破百亿。25Q1 公司总营收 1113 亿元，同比+47.4%/环比+2.1%，连续两个季度超千亿；毛利率 22.8%，同比 +0.5pct/环比+2.2pct 创历史新高；经调整净利润 106.8 亿元，同比+64.5%/ 环比+28.4%，首次突破百亿大关，其中智能电动汽车及 AI 等创新业务亏损 5 亿元。公司稳步执行"新十年目标"，大规模投入底层核心技术，25Q1 研发 支出 67 亿元，同比+30.1%。截至 25Q1 末公司研发人员 2.17 万人创历史新 高，占员工总数 47.7%；获得专利超 4.3 ...