部公司 电子 2025 年03 月 20 日 小米集团-W (0181 全年业绩超预期,高端化战略持续兑现 报告原因:有业绩公布需要点评 | 投资要点: | | --- | 财务数据及盈利预测 | 市神:人民币 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 (百万元) | 270,970 | 365,906 | 469,359 | 572,035 | 684,427 | | 同比增长率(%) | -3 | રે રેત | 28 | 22 | 20 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 19.274 | 27.314 | 37,624 | 45.739 | 55.769 | | 同比增长率(%) | 127 | 42 | 38 | 22 | 22 | | 每股收益(元/股) | 0.76 | 1.07 | 1.48 | 1.79 | 2.19 | | 净资产收益率(%) | 11.34 | 13.39 | 16.01 | 16.53 | 17.07 | | 市智率 | 70 | 49 | 3 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group [4][7][8] Core Insights - Xiaomi Group's 2024 and Q4 performance reached historical highs, with 2024 revenue of 365.9 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 35%, and adjusted net profit of 27.2 billion RMB, up 41% [7][8] - The company has raised its 2025 delivery target for electric vehicles to 350,000 units, up from 300,000, with a projected revenue of 32.8 billion RMB from this segment [7][8] - The smartphone segment continues to validate its high-end strategy, targeting 180 million units shipped in 2025, with a revenue of 191.8 billion RMB in 2024, a 22% increase [7][8] - The IoT segment saw a significant revenue increase, surpassing 100 billion RMB, with a target of 50% growth in 2025 [7][8] - The internet services segment achieved record revenue and gross margin, with a total revenue of 34.1 billion RMB in 2024, a 13.3% increase [7][8] - Xiaomi's retail strategy includes expanding its store count to 20,000 by 2025, with a focus on AI and core technologies [7][8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Xiaomi Group are as follows: - 2023: 270.97 billion RMB - 2024: 365.91 billion RMB - 2025E: 469.36 billion RMB - 2026E: 572.04 billion RMB - 2027E: 684.43 billion RMB - Net profit projections are: - 2023: 19.27 billion RMB - 2024: 27.31 billion RMB - 2025E: 37.62 billion RMB - 2026E: 45.74 billion RMB - 2027E: 55.77 billion RMB [3][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the industry trends are continuously catalyzing growth, with expectations for core business net profit growth driven by improvements in various business segments and a reduction in losses from new ventures such as automotive [4][6] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 have been raised from 28.2 billion and 33.3 billion to 38.9 billion and 55.2 billion respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 64.2 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 43%, 42%, and 16% [4][6] - The current stock price of HKD 58.2 corresponds to price-to-earnings ratios of 35.2, 24.8, and 21.3 for 2025-2027, indicating market recognition of the brand's upward potential and AI capabilities [4] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E are as follows: 270.97 billion, 365.91 billion, 504.46 billion, 617.19 billion, and 682.59 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of -3.2%, 35.0%, 37.9%, 22.3%, and 10.6% respectively [7] - Adjusted net profit estimates for the same period are: 19.27 billion, 27.24 billion, 38.90 billion, 55.18 billion, and 64.24 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 126.3%, 41.3%, 42.8%, 41.9%, and 16.4% [7] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 21.2% in 2023A to 22.3% in 2027E, while the net margin is projected to increase from 7.1% to 9.4% over the same period [7] - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to rise from 10.6% in 2023A to 19.2% in 2027E [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [6]. Core Insights - The company achieved record revenue in Q4 2024, surpassing 100 billion RMB for the first time, with total revenue for the year reaching 365.9 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 35.0%. Adjusted net profit was 27.2 billion RMB, up 41.3% year-on-year [5][6]. - The company is focusing on high-end smartphone and electric vehicle markets, with significant growth expected in IoT and internet services, supported by strong R&D investments [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 109 billion RMB, a 48.8% increase year-on-year, and adjusted net profit of 8.3 billion RMB, up 69.4% year-on-year [5][6]. - For the full year 2024, total revenue was 365.9 billion RMB, with a net profit of 27.2 billion RMB, including a loss of 6.2 billion RMB from innovative businesses like smart electric vehicles [5][6]. Smartphone Business - The smartphone segment generated revenue of 191.8 billion RMB in 2024, a 21.8% increase year-on-year, with a market share of 13.8% [5][6]. - The company is advancing its high-end strategy, achieving a market share of 24.3% in the 4000-5000 RMB price range, ranking first [5][6]. IoT Business - IoT revenue reached 104.1 billion RMB in 2024, a 30.0% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 20.3% [5][6]. - The company is expanding its high-end IoT product offerings and plans to open 10,000 Xiaomi stores overseas in the next five years [5][6]. Internet Services - Internet services revenue grew by 13.3% year-on-year to 34.1 billion RMB in 2024, with a gross margin of 76.6% [5][6]. - The number of global monthly active users reached 702.3 million, a 9.5% increase year-on-year [5][6]. Automotive Business - The automotive segment generated revenue of 32.8 billion RMB in 2024, with an adjusted net loss of 6.2 billion RMB [5][6]. - The company has set a delivery target of 350,000 vehicles for 2025, with strong demand for the SU7 model [6].

Financial Performance - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, Xiaomi Corporation reported total revenue of RMB 365.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 35.0%[6]. - The adjusted net profit for the same period reached RMB 27.2 billion, marking a 41.3% increase compared to the previous year[6]. - In Q4 2024, Xiaomi's total revenue surpassed RMB 100 billion for the first time in a single quarter, reaching RMB 109 billion, a 48.8% year-on-year growth[7]. - The net profit for the year increased by 34.9% from RMB 17.5 billion for the year ending December 31, 2023, to RMB 23.6 billion for the year ending December 31, 2024[71]. - The adjusted net profit for the year ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 27.2 billion, compared to RMB 19.3 billion for the previous year[35]. - The total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, increased by 35.0% to RMB 365.9 billion, compared to RMB 271.0 billion for the year ended December 31, 2023[37]. - The company reported a profit of RMB 23,578,449 thousand for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, reflecting a significant increase in operational performance[164]. - Total comprehensive income for the year amounted to RMB 24,338,685 thousand, up from RMB 18,510,061 thousand in 2023, reflecting a growth of 31.4%[189]. Revenue Breakdown - The company's smartphone business generated revenue of RMB 191.8 billion in 2024, up 21.8% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 12.6%[17]. - The IoT and lifestyle consumer products segment achieved revenue of RMB 104.1 billion, a 30.0% year-on-year increase, with a gross margin of 20.3%[21]. - The revenue from the "Smart Electric Vehicles and Innovative Businesses" segment was RMB 32.8 billion for the fiscal year 2024[7]. - The "Mobile × AIoT" segment revenue grew by 22.9% year-on-year to RMB 333.2 billion, with a gross margin of 21.2%[16]. - The internet services revenue reached RMB 34.1 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, with a gross margin of 76.6%[25]. - Revenue from the smart electric vehicle and innovative business segment for Q4 2024 was RMB 16.7 billion, with 69,697 units of the Xiaomi SU7 series delivered, resulting in an ASP of RMB 234,322 per vehicle[83]. User and Market Metrics - The number of active users globally reached 702.3 million by December 2024, reflecting a 9.5% year-on-year increase[8]. - Xiaomi's AIoT platform connected 904.6 million IoT devices by the end of 2024, a 22.3% year-on-year growth[8]. - The company achieved a smartphone market share of 13.8% globally, an increase of 1.0 percentage points year-on-year[8]. - In the high-end smartphone segment in mainland China, Xiaomi's shipment volume accounted for 23.3% of total smartphone shipments, up 3.0 percentage points year-on-year[12]. - The company's offline retail store count in mainland China approached 15,000 by the end of 2024, with a market share of 10.3% in offline smartphone channels[14]. Research and Development - Xiaomi's R&D expenditure for 2024 was RMB 24.1 billion, a 25.9% increase from the previous year, with R&D personnel accounting for 48.5% of total employees[10]. - R&D expenses increased by 25.9% from RMB 19.1 billion for the year ending December 31, 2023, to RMB 24.1 billion for the year ending December 31, 2024, primarily due to increased spending related to innovative businesses such as smart electric vehicles[61]. - R&D expenses increased by 36.1% from RMB 5.5 billion in Q4 2023 to RMB 7.4 billion in Q4 2024, driven by higher personnel costs and R&D related to smart electric vehicles[103]. Cost and Profitability - Total sales cost increased by 35.5% from RMB 213.5 billion to RMB 289.3 billion, with smartphone and IoT sales costs rising significantly[50]. - Gross profit increased by 33.2% from RMB 57.5 billion to RMB 76.6 billion, while gross margin slightly decreased from 21.2% to 20.9%[56]. - The gross margin for the "Smart Electric Vehicle and Innovative Business" segment was 18.5% for 2024, improving to 20.4% in Q4 2024[28]. - The gross margin for IoT and consumer products improved from 16.3% to 20.3%, driven by higher margins from wearables and smart appliances[58]. Cash Flow and Investments - Cash and cash equivalents as of December 31, 2024, amounted to RMB 33.7 billion[166]. - The net cash generated from operating activities was RMB 39,295,499 thousand, down from RMB 41,300,495 thousand in 2023, a decrease of 4.9%[195]. - The net cash used in investing activities for Q4 2024 was RMB 29.1 billion, primarily due to an increase in long-term bank deposits of RMB 18.2 billion and short-term investments of RMB 8.6 billion[172]. - The total value of investments as of December 31, 2024, was RMB 71.4 billion, reflecting a 1.7% year-on-year increase[177]. Debt and Financing - The company issued USD 600 million 3.375% senior notes due 2030, guaranteed unconditionally by the company[167]. - The company also issued USD 800 million 2.875% senior notes due 2031 and USD 400 million 4.100% green senior notes due 2051, both guaranteed by the company[168]. - As of December 31, 2024, total borrowings amounted to RMB 30.6 billion[174]. - The company reported a net cash outflow from financing activities of RMB 3,998,976 thousand in 2024, compared to RMB 504,972 thousand in 2023, indicating increased investment in growth initiatives[195].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group [3][6]. Core Viewpoints - Xiaomi is focusing on high-end product development, with the Xiaomi 15 Ultra positioned as a "peak imaging, technology flagship" starting at a price of 6499 yuan. The company aims to break into the ultra-high-end market above 6000 yuan in the next five years, competing with Apple in product service and ecosystem compatibility [1][3]. - The pricing of the Xiaomi SU7 Ultra was lower than expected, with a final price of 529,900 yuan, significantly reduced from the pre-sale price of 814,900 yuan [1]. - The company plans to invest 105 billion yuan in R&D from 2021 to 2025, with AI and related businesses expected to account for one-quarter of this investment by 2025 [2]. Financial Projections - The projected net profit for Xiaomi Group is approximately 19.49 billion yuan in 2024, 24.57 billion yuan in 2025, and 29.55 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 11.52%, 26.07%, and 20.27% respectively [3][13]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 270.97 billion yuan in 2023 to 558.81 billion yuan in 2026, with annual growth rates of -3.24%, 33.67%, 27.03%, and 21.46% [13][16]. Key Financial Metrics - The gross margin is projected to be 21.21% in 2023, decreasing slightly to 20.33% by 2026 [15][16]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 10.66% in 2023, slightly declining to 12.43% by 2026 [15][16]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 21.51 in 2023 to 38.06 in 2026 [16].

Group 1 - Xiaomi Group-W has seen continuous net buying from southbound funds for six consecutive days, with a cumulative net buying amount of 40.87 billion HKD, while its stock price has decreased by 1.45% [1] - On March 3, the total trading volume of active stocks through the Hong Kong Stock Connect reached 623.16 billion HKD, with a net buying amount of 50.16 billion HKD [1] - On the same day, Xiaomi Group-W recorded a trading amount of 183.55 billion HKD through the Hong Kong Stock Connect, with a net buying amount of 0.13 billion HKD [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Xiaomi Group [4] Core Viewpoints - The launch of the Xiaomi 15 Ultra and Xiaomi SU7 Ultra showcases the company's expansion into multiple sectors, including smartphones, computers, smart home devices, and automobiles [1][2] - The Xiaomi SU7 Ultra has achieved significant sales, with 248,000 orders locked in and 135,000 delivered within nine months of its launch [2] - The company is leveraging its user base and supply chain advantages to drive long-term growth, particularly through its high-end smartphone strategy, expanding AIOT product matrix, and automotive business [3] Summary by Sections Smartphone Segment - The Xiaomi 15 Ultra starts at 6,499 RMB, maintaining the price of its predecessor, but future Ultra products are expected to see price increases. Key innovations include a Leica ultra-pure optical system and a 6,000mAh battery, marking it as the strongest Ultra model in terms of battery life [1] AIOT Products - The AIOT lineup includes the REDMI Book Pro 16 2025, Xiaomi Buds 5 Pro, and Xiaomi Smart Speaker Pro, with features such as the Xiaomi AIPC engine and high-quality audio transmission [2] Automotive Business - The Xiaomi SU7 Ultra is priced at 529,900 RMB, significantly lower than the previously indicated price of 814,900 RMB. The model aims to establish itself as a new luxury vehicle for the current era, achieving over 10,000 pre-orders within two hours of launch [2] Smart Driving Technology - Xiaomi's end-to-end smart driving technology was fully rolled out on February 25, with a total computing power of 10.68 EFLOPS and over 10 million learning clips. The company aims to be a leader in smart driving by 2025 [3] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 366.26 billion RMB, 502.75 billion RMB, and 620.86 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 21.82 billion RMB, 29.49 billion RMB, and 39.44 billion RMB. The expected P/E ratios are 54, 40, and 30 [3][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The recent launch of the SU7 Ultra and 15 Ultra marks a significant milestone in the company's high-end strategy [7] - The SU7 Ultra is positioned as a high-performance electric vehicle, aiming to redefine luxury standards in the automotive market [7] - The pricing strategy for the SU7 Ultra is aggressive, with a standard version priced at 529,900 RMB, which is competitive compared to other high-performance electric vehicles [7] - The company aims to leverage its advancements in AIoT and mobile technology to enhance its product offerings and market position [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections show a decline from 280,044 million RMB in 2022 to 270,970 million RMB in 2023, followed by a significant increase to 353,967 million RMB in 2024E, and further growth to 497,949 million RMB by 2026E [3][9] - The net profit is expected to rise from 8,490 million RMB in 2022 to 19,274 million RMB in 2023, reaching 36,744 million RMB by 2026E [3][9] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 0.34 RMB in 2022 to 1.45 RMB in 2026E [3][9] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 141 in 2022 to 33 in 2026E, indicating improved valuation over time [3][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Xiaomi Corp [1] Core Insights - Xiaomi's pricing strategy for the SU7 Ultra significantly enhances its brand image while retaining its value-for-money proposition, marking a decisive move into the ultra-premium market [2][10] - The SU7 Ultra's price was reduced to Rmb529,900 from an initial pre-sale price of Rmb814,900, exceeding market expectations and allowing middle-class consumers to access luxury car experiences [2][8] - The vehicle's impressive specifications, including 1,548 PS power and a 0-100 km/h acceleration in 1.98 seconds, position it as a competitive model in the ultra-premium segment [9][12] Summary by Sections Event - Xiaomi officially launched the SU7 Ultra on February 27, 2025, with a guide price of Rmb529,900, a reduction of Rmb285,000 from the pre-sale price, leading to over 6,900 orders in 10 minutes and 10,000 in 2 hours [6][1] Comments - The "Quality-to-Price" strategy is pivotal in Xiaomi's brand upgrade, showcasing its commitment to high-end transformation while maintaining cost-effectiveness [7][10] - The significant price drop is expected to broaden sales potential, although volume is not the primary focus for Xiaomi [8][10] - The SU7 Ultra's pricing establishes it as a "gold-standard" model, enhancing its competitive edge in the ultra-premium market [9][10] Technology and Features - The SU7 Ultra features advanced technology, including Qualcomm's Snapdragon 8295 chipset and Xiaomi HyperOS, supporting five-screen interconnection and enhanced voice control through the AI assistant Xiao Ai [11] - The intelligent driving system boasts a total computing power of 11.45 EFLOPS and utilizes a comprehensive sensor suite for 360-degree coverage, positioning it among the industry's top tier [11][12] - The full rollout of the HAD intelligent driving system is anticipated to enhance competition with Tesla and other leading domestic intelligent driving companies [13]