Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company is a global leader in the smartphone market, focusing on smartphones, smart hardware, and IoT platforms. The smartphone revenue has consistently accounted for over 50% of total revenue, reaching 54.67% in the first three quarters of 2024. IoT and lifestyle products contributed 28.51%, while internet services made up 9.64% of total revenue. The company is advancing its "human-vehicle-home" ecosystem strategy and aims to become a global leader in core technology over the next decade [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - The company expects adjusted net profits of RMB 25.315 billion, RMB 31.916 billion, and RMB 38.386 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The corresponding P/E ratios are projected to be 54.35, 43.11, and 35.85 times based on the closing price on February 21, 2025 [3][5]. - For 2024, the company anticipates total revenue of RMB 362.2 billion, a 33.67% increase from 2023, with adjusted net profit expected to grow by 31.35% [5][26]. Business Development - The company is actively promoting a dual-brand strategy with Xiaomi and Redmi, achieving breakthroughs in high-end market segments. The strategy focuses on high specifications combined with competitive pricing, enhancing hardware competitiveness [2][33]. - The automotive business is rapidly developing, with the first electric vehicle, the Xiaomi SU7 series, set to launch in April 2024. The company aims to integrate its "human-vehicle-home" ecosystem, leveraging its large fan base and marketing capabilities [2][49]. IoT and AI Strategy - The AIoT strategy is continuously upgraded, with the number of connected IoT devices reaching 861.4 million by the third quarter of 2024, marking a 23.2% year-on-year increase. The company is also focusing on integrating AI into its operations and user scenarios [18][43][46]. - The company maintains a leading position in the wearable products sector, ranking third globally in wearable device shipments and first in the Chinese market for TWS earphones [43][45]. Market Position - As of the third quarter of 2024, the company ranked third globally in smartphone shipments, with a market share of 13.8%, and achieved a 3.1% year-on-year increase in global smartphone shipments [18][39].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Insights - The company is a global leader in the smartphone market, focusing on smartphones, smart hardware, and IoT platforms. The smartphone revenue has consistently accounted for over 50% of total revenue, reaching 54.67% in the first three quarters of 2024. IoT and lifestyle products contributed 28.51%, while internet services made up 9.64% of total revenue [1][2][3]. - The company is advancing its "human-vehicle-home" ecosystem strategy and aims to become a global leader in core technology through significant investments in foundational technologies over the next decade [1][3][24]. - The company has made significant progress in its dual-brand strategy with Xiaomi and Redmi, achieving breakthroughs in high-end market segments while maintaining competitive pricing [2][33]. Financial Projections and Valuation - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected at 253.15 billion, 319.16 billion, and 383.86 billion RMB, respectively. The corresponding P/E ratios are estimated at 54.35, 43.11, and 35.85 times [3][5]. - The company’s total revenue for 2024 is expected to reach 362.2 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 33.67% [5][26]. Business Development - The company is actively expanding its automotive business, having officially entered the smart electric vehicle market in March 2021. The first vehicle, the Xiaomi SU7 series, is set to be delivered in April 2024 [2][49]. - The AIoT strategy is continuously evolving, with the number of connected IoT devices reaching 861.4 million by the third quarter of 2024, marking a 23.2% year-on-year increase [18][46]. Market Position - As of the third quarter of 2024, the company ranked third globally in smartphone shipments, with a market share of 13.8%, maintaining its position among the top three for seventeen consecutive quarters [18][39]. - The company has achieved a significant increase in its active user base, with 685.8 million monthly active users as of September 2024, reflecting a 10.1% year-on-year growth [18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Xiaomi Corp [1] Core Insights - Xiaomi's pricing strategy for the SU7 Ultra significantly enhances its brand image while retaining its value-for-money philosophy, marking a decisive move into the ultra-premium market [2][10] - The SU7 Ultra's price was reduced to Rmb529,900 from an initial pre-sale price of Rmb814,900, which is expected to broaden its sales potential, although volume is not the primary focus for Xiaomi [2][8] - The vehicle's impressive specifications, including 1,548 PS power and a 0-100 km/h acceleration in 1.98 seconds, position it as a competitive model in the ultra-premium segment [9][12] Summary by Sections Event - Xiaomi officially launched the SU7 Ultra on February 27, 2025, with a guide price of Rmb529,900, a reduction of Rmb285,000 from the pre-sale price, exceeding market expectations [6][1] - The vehicle secured over 6,900 orders within 10 minutes and surpassed 10,000 orders in 2 hours post-launch [6] Comments - The "Quality-to-Price" strategy is leading Xiaomi's brand upgrade, showcasing its commitment to high-end transformation while maintaining cost-effectiveness [7][10] - The pricing strategy allows middle-class consumers to experience luxury car features, potentially accelerating the break-even timeline for its automotive business [8][10] Technology and Features - The SU7 Ultra is equipped with advanced technology, including Qualcomm's Snapdragon 8295 chipset and Xiaomi HyperOS, enhancing voice control and interactive experiences [11] - The intelligent driving system boasts a total computing power of 11.45 EFLOPS and utilizes a comprehensive sensor suite for 360-degree coverage [11][12] - The model supports various intelligent driving capabilities, including automatic recognition for tolls and parking assistance, with a full rollout of features expected soon [12][13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Xiaomi Group-W (01810) is "Buy" with a target price yet to be specified [3]. Core Insights - The upcoming Ultra launch event is seen as a significant milestone in Xiaomi's five-year journey towards high-end product offerings, marking a cross-departmental collaboration between automotive and mobile sectors [1]. - The SU7 Ultra is expected to set new benchmarks in the automotive industry, showcasing impressive specifications such as a 0-100 km/h acceleration in 1.98 seconds and a top speed of 350 km/h, indicating Xiaomi's capability to compete in the high-end automotive market [1]. - The Ultra product line is anticipated to enhance Xiaomi's research and development momentum, driving core technology advancements across its product range [2]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Xiaomi's total share capital is approximately 25,108.13 million shares, with a total market capitalization of around 1,333,241.63 million HKD [4]. - The net asset value per share is 7.88 HKD, and the debt-to-asset ratio stands at 49.33% [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for Xiaomi from 2024 to 2026 are projected at 353.4 billion, 439.2 billion, and 512.4 billion HKD respectively, with electric vehicle and innovative business revenues expected to reach 29 billion, 72.3 billion, and 111.6 billion HKD [2]. - The adjusted net profit for the same period is estimated at 26.1 billion, 30.7 billion, and 36.1 billion HKD [2]. Product Strategy - The Ultra concept is expected to transition from mobile devices to the entire product line, enhancing sales of volume versions as the market shifts from growth to saturation [6]. - The SU7 Ultra is projected to exceed initial order expectations, with a target of 10,000 units, driven by its luxury features and performance capabilities [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Xiaomi Group-W (01810) is "Buy" with a target price yet to be specified [3][11]. Core Viewpoints - The upcoming Ultra launch event is seen as a significant milestone in Xiaomi's five-year journey towards high-end product offerings, marking a cross-departmental collaboration between automotive and mobile sectors [1]. - The SU7 Ultra is expected to set new benchmarks in the automotive industry, showcasing impressive specifications such as a 0-100 km/h acceleration in 1.98 seconds and a top speed of 350 km/h, indicating Xiaomi's capability to compete in the high-end automotive market [1]. - The Ultra product line is anticipated to enhance Xiaomi's research and development momentum, driving core technologies down to more accessible product tiers [2]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Xiaomi's total share capital is approximately 25,108.13 million shares, with a total market capitalization of around 1,333,241.63 million HKD [4]. - The net asset value per share is 7.88 HKD, and the debt-to-asset ratio stands at 49.33% [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for Xiaomi from 2024 to 2026 are projected at 353.4 billion, 439.2 billion, and 512.4 billion HKD respectively, with electric vehicle and innovative business revenues expected to reach 29 billion, 72.3 billion, and 111.6 billion HKD [2]. - The adjusted net profit for the same period is estimated at 26.1 billion, 30.7 billion, and 36.1 billion HKD [2]. Product Strategy - The Ultra concept is expected to transition from mobile devices to the entire product line, enhancing sales of volume versions as the market shifts from growth to saturation [6]. - The SU7 Ultra is projected to exceed initial order expectations, with a target of 10,000 units, driven by its luxury features and performance capabilities [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of 57.74 HKD [4][10][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve earnings per share of 0.84, 1.06, and 1.37 CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting an upward adjustment in revenue and gross margin forecasts due to the positive industry outlook and the company's strategic initiatives [4][10]. - The automotive segment has shown strong performance with monthly deliveries exceeding 20,000 units, maintaining a long delivery cycle of 6-7 months [9][10]. - The integration of the DeepSeek large model into the company's operating system enhances its AI capabilities, allowing for various applications such as code writing and logical reasoning [9][10]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 362,463 million CNY, 406,553 million CNY, and 475,075 million CNY respectively, indicating a growth rate of 34%, 12%, and 17% [6][10]. - Operating profit is forecasted to be 22,944 million CNY, 29,430 million CNY, and 38,863 million CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, with significant growth rates of 15%, 28%, and 32% [6][10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 20,996 million CNY, 26,528 million CNY, and 34,418 million CNY for the same years, with growth rates of 20%, 26%, and 30% [6][10]. - The gross margin is projected to be 21.0%, 21.8%, and 22.7% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, while the net margin is expected to be 5.8%, 6.5%, and 7.2% [6][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][10][7] Core Insights - The company is projected to have earnings per share of 0.84, 1.06, and 1.37 RMB for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with adjustments made to revenue and gross margin forecasts [4][10] - The target price is set at 57.74 HKD based on a 39x PE valuation for comparable companies in 2026 [4][10] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million RMB) is forecasted to be 362,463 in 2024, 406,553 in 2025, and 475,075 in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 34%, 12%, and 17% respectively [6] - Operating profit is expected to rise significantly from 20,009 million RMB in 2023 to 38,863 million RMB in 2026, with corresponding growth rates of 610%, 15%, 28%, and 32% [6] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase from 17,475 million RMB in 2023 to 34,418 million RMB in 2026, with growth rates of 606%, 20%, 26%, and 30% [6] - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 21.0% to 22.7% from 2024 to 2026 [6] Market Position and Product Performance - The company maintained its position as the third-largest smartphone vendor globally, with a market share of 13% in Q4 2024 and an annual shipment of approximately 169 million units [9] - The company has seen significant growth in its AIoT product categories, with notable increases in sales for various smart home appliances [9] - The automotive segment has delivered over 160,000 vehicles, maintaining a monthly delivery rate of over 20,000 units [9]

此港股通报告之英文版本于 2025 年 2 月 17 日 中午 12 时 35 分由华兴证券(香港)发 布。中文版由华兴证券的王国晗（证券分析师登记编号: S1680524080001）审核。如果 您想进一步讨论本报告所述观点，请与您在华兴证券的销售代表联系。 预计本季度 IoT 和整体盈利强劲：我们预测小米 4Q24 收入首次超过 1,000 亿人民币大关 ，达到 1,050 亿元，同比提升 40%。分板块来看，我们根据 Canalys 数据（4,270 万部出 货）预测智能手机收入为 490 亿元人民币，且因高端机型贡献提升，单价同比增长 6%至 人民币 1,153 元。IoT 方面，我们预测总收入同比增长 46%至 297 亿元人民币，受益于国 内刺激政策，尤其是家电产品。我们预测互联网服务在强劲广告业务势能下收入同比提升 13%至 89 亿元人民币，并预测季度电车交付量为 7 万台、收入为 163 亿元人民币。我们 预测 4Q24 整体综合毛利率环比提升 20 个基点至 20.6%，并预计随着小米持续扩大规模， 电车毛利率将接近 20%。利润层面，我们预测小米的经调整净利润为 70 亿元人民币，涵 盖 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group [3][6]. Core Views - Xiaomi Group's smartphone shipments reached 42.7 million units in Q4 2024, marking a 4.8% year-on-year increase, with a global market share of 12.9%, positioning it among the top three manufacturers [1]. - In the Chinese market, Xiaomi's smartphone shipments grew by 28.4% year-on-year, driven by the success of the Xiaomi 15 series and local subsidies for high-end devices [1]. - The IoT business is expected to benefit from the 2024 appliance replacement subsidy policy, leading to significant revenue growth [2]. - The automotive segment delivered 135,000 units in 2024, with a target of 300,000 units for 2025, indicating strong growth potential [2][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at CNY 362.9 billion, CNY 456.2 billion, and CNY 596.8 billion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 34%, 26%, and 31% respectively [3][11]. - Adjusted net profit for the consumer electronics segment is forecasted to be CNY 32.1 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of 10% [3][11]. - The automotive segment is expected to show a turnaround with an adjusted net profit of CNY 0.9 billion by 2026 [3][11]. - The report sets a target price of HKD 54 for Xiaomi Group based on a 20x P/E ratio for the consumer electronics business and a 2x P/S ratio for the automotive segment [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group [6] Core Views - Xiaomi Group is expected to achieve a total revenue of 105.4 billion RMB in Q4 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 44% [1] - Non-IFRS net profit for Q4 2024 is projected to grow by 36% year-on-year to 6.7 billion RMB, with losses from innovative businesses like electric vehicles expected to decrease to around 900 million RMB [1] - The report anticipates strong performance in Xiaomi's core businesses, particularly in smartphones, IoT, and automotive sectors, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2024-2026 [5] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - Q4 2024 total revenue is expected to reach 105.4 billion RMB, a 44% increase year-on-year [1] - Non-IFRS net profit is projected at 6.7 billion RMB, a 36% increase year-on-year [1] - Revenue for 2024 is forecasted at 361.9 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 33.6% [10] Smartphone Business - Global smartphone shipments are expected to grow by 5% year-on-year to 42.7 million units in Q4 2024, with a significant 29% increase in shipments in China [2] - The average selling price (ASP) of smartphones is anticipated to rise due to government subsidies and the launch of the Xiaomi 15 series [2] - The smartphone business gross margin is expected to improve to around 12% in Q4 2024 [2] IoT and Internet Services - IoT revenue is projected to exceed 30 billion RMB in Q4 2024, a nearly 50% year-on-year increase, driven by government subsidies for home appliances [3] - Internet services revenue is expected to rise by 16% year-on-year to 9.2 billion RMB, marking a significant milestone of surpassing 9 billion RMB in a single quarter [3] Automotive Sector - The automotive gross margin is expected to approach 20% in Q4 2024, with deliveries of the SU7 Ultra model set to begin [4] - Xiaomi is projected to deliver over 135,000 vehicles in 2024, with Q4 deliveries estimated at 68,000 units [4] - The automotive business is expected to turn profitable in 2025, supported by improved production capacity and demand [4] Valuation and Profitability - The report revises the Non-IFRS net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 25.7 billion RMB, 41.0 billion RMB, and 56.7 billion RMB respectively, reflecting significant upward adjustments [5] - The adjusted P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 123 in 2022 to 19 in 2026, indicating improved valuation metrics [5]