Core Viewpoint - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.15% to close at 25,524.45 points on July 29, with a net inflow of HKD 12.72 billion through the southbound trading channel [1] Group 1: Market Activity - The total trading volume for the southbound trading on July 29 was HKD 155.49 billion, with a net buy of HKD 12.72 billion [1] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange's southbound trading accounted for HKD 98.34 billion in trading volume, with a net buy of HKD 5.88 billion, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange had a trading volume of HKD 57.15 billion and a net buy of HKD 6.84 billion [1] Group 2: Active Stocks - The most actively traded stock on the Shanghai Stock Exchange was Xiaomi Group-W, with a trading volume of HKD 5.36 billion, followed by Guotai Junan International and Tencent Holdings, with trading volumes of HKD 4.15 billion and HKD 3.00 billion, respectively [2] - In terms of net buying, Tencent Holdings led with a net buy of HKD 1.06 billion, despite its stock price closing down by 0.09% [1][2] - The stock with the highest net sell was Pop Mart, with a net sell of HKD 272 million, while its stock price increased by 5.91% [1][2] Group 3: Detailed Stock Data - The top ten actively traded stocks on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange included Xiaomi Group-W with a trading volume of HKD 3.00 billion and a net buy of HKD 670 million, despite a closing drop of 2.64% [2] - Meituan-W had the highest net sell amount of HKD 509 million, with a closing price decrease of 0.62% [2] - Other notable stocks included Alibaba-W and Southbound Hang Seng Technology, with trading volumes of HKD 2.24 billion and HKD 1.67 billion, respectively [2]

| 中芯国际 | 6.421Z | 5.18 亿 | 11.60亿 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | HK 00981 | | | +1.24 亿 | | 快手-W | 4.62亿 | 4.71亿 | 9.33亿 | | HK 01024 | | | -850.31万 | | 石药集团 | 5.88亿 | 3.24亿 | 9.11亿 | | HK 01093 | | | +2.64 乙 | | 信达生物 | 6.77 亿 | 1.62亿 | 8.39亿 | | HK 01801 | | | +5.141Z | | 泡泡玛特 | 3.63亿 | 4.43亿 | 8.06亿 | | HK 09992 | | | -7973.47万 | 港股通(深)活跃成交股 | 股票名称 | 买入额 | 卖出额 | 买卖总额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 净流入 | | 小米集团-W HK 01810 | 31.76亿 | 21.87 亿 | 53.64亿 | | | | | +9.89 亿 | | 国泰君安 ... | 21.58亿 | 19.90亿 | 41 ...

| 公司名称 | 成交金额 | 净买入额 | | --- | --- | --- | | 小米集团-W(01810) | 53.64 亿元 | +9.89 亿元 | | 国泰君安国际(01788) | 41.48 亿元 | +1.69 亿元 | | 腾讯控股(00700) | 30.04 亿元 | +10.60 亿元 | | 阿里巴巴-W(09988) | 22.43 亿元 | +2.02 亿元 | | 中芯国际(00981) | 21.86 亿元 | +2.43 亿元 | | 美团-W(03690) | 20.67 亿元 | +2.21 亿元 | | 南方恒生科技(03033) | 16.71 亿元 | -6787.71 万元 | | 锦欣生殖(01951) | 15.63 亿元 | +1.95 亿元 | | 泡泡玛特(09992) | 15.31 亿元 | -2.72 亿元 | | 石药集团(01093) | 14.85 亿元 | +3.88 亿元 | 智通财经APP获悉，2025年7月29日当天，小米集团-W(01810)、国泰君安国际(01788)、腾讯控股 (00700)位居沪港通（南向）成交额前3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The national childcare subsidy policy will provide an annual subsidy of 3600 yuan per child until the age of three, benefiting over 20 million families each year starting from January 1, 2025 [4][5]. Subsidy Standard - Each child will receive a subsidy of 3600 yuan per year until they turn three years old. For children born before January 1, 2025, who are under three years old, the subsidy will be calculated based on the remaining months [8]. Coverage - The policy applies to all families with children under three years old, regardless of whether they have one, two, or three children, and is uniformly implemented across the country [9]. Application Process - Parents or guardians can apply for the subsidy online through the childcare subsidy information management system or offline, providing necessary documents such as birth certificates and household registration books [10]. Funding Source - The central government will establish a "childcare subsidy fund," providing financial support to eastern, central, and western regions proportionally, with any additional local funding being the responsibility of local governments [11]. Market Impact Analysis - The infant food market is expected to exceed 72 billion yuan, directly benefiting the maternal and infant consumption industry chain [12]. - The childcare industry is projected to reach a scale of 162.1 billion yuan by 2025, with an average annual growth rate of 7.5%, accelerated by the policy [13]. - Demand for children's medical and nutritional health products is anticipated to rise, with the pediatric medication market expected to grow at a rate exceeding 10% annually [14]. Beneficiary Companies - Leading maternal and infant retail companies are expected to benefit directly from increased customer spending and frequency of purchases [15]. - Companies such as Kidswant and Huaiying Room are positioned to gain from the subsidy implementation due to their extensive retail networks and service offerings [16]. - Major players in the infant formula market, like China Feihe and Yili, are likely to see increased demand driven by the subsidy [17][18].

Group 1 - Southbound funds net bought Hong Kong stocks worth 12.72 billion HKD today, with notable purchases in Xiaomi Group-W (1.659 billion), Tencent Holdings (0.832 billion), and Alibaba-W (0.753 billion) [1] - Southbound funds have net bought Tencent for four consecutive days, totaling 2.08902 billion HKD, and Xiaomi for three consecutive days, totaling 2.44603 billion HKD [1] - Other significant net purchases include Sino Biopharmaceutical (0.651 billion), InnoCare Pharma (0.514 billion), and SMIC (0.366 billion) [1] Group 2 - In the Shanghai Stock Connect, Xiaomi Group-W saw a decrease of 2.6% with a net buy of 0.989 billion, while Tencent Holdings increased by 0.1% with a net buy of 1.060 billion [3] - Alibaba-W had a slight increase of 0.1% with a net buy of 0.202 billion, and SMIC rose by 0.5% with a net buy of 0.243 billion [3] - Meituan-W experienced a decline of 0.6% with a net sell of 0.221 billion, while Pop Mart saw a significant increase of 5.9% with a net sell of 0.272 billion [3]

Group 1 - The implementation of the childcare subsidy policy is set to begin on January 1, 2025, providing annual subsidies of 3,600 yuan per child for families with children under three years old [1][2] - The subsidy aims to alleviate the financial burden of raising children and is expected to significantly boost the maternal and infant consumption market, indirectly benefiting the assisted reproductive industry [1][3] - Over 20 provinces in China are already exploring childcare subsidy policies, indicating a growing trend towards enhancing birth support measures at the local level [3] Group 2 - Companies in the maternal and infant product sector, such as Goodbaby International, are positioned to benefit from the expected increase in demand due to the subsidy policy [4] - China Feihe, a leading infant formula brand, is likely to see positive impacts from the subsidy as it targets the high-end market, aligning with the demographic benefiting from the policy [5] - The assisted reproductive services sector, represented by companies like Jinxin Fertility, may experience increased demand as the subsidy lowers the cost of raising children, potentially enhancing the willingness of couples facing infertility to seek IVF services [5]

Group 1 - The demand for assisted reproductive technology in China is expected to reach a turning point due to increasing average maternal age and rising proportion of older mothers [1] - From 2023 to 2025, assisted reproduction will be included in national health insurance, which is anticipated to release significant demand following policy implementation [1] - The company, as a leading private player in assisted reproduction, is expected to benefit from tightened licensing and its technical advantages in third-generation IVF [1] Group 2 - The company's overseas business, particularly in the U.S., is experiencing strong growth, with an expected 18.2% year-on-year increase in egg retrieval cycles in 2024 [1] - The U.S. team is expanding, with plans to grow from 23 to 40 doctors by 2027, which will enhance operational capacity [1] - A new policy in California requiring group insurance to cover IVF treatments is expected to directly benefit the company's operations on the West Coast [1] Group 3 - The company has demonstrated resilience in profitability, with a projected domestic gross margin of approximately 27.6% in 2024 [2] - Adjusted net profit is expected to be 420 million yuan, with a profit margin of 14.8%, gradually recovering from the pandemic period [2] - Cost control measures have effectively alleviated pressure on overseas profit margins, with sales and management expense ratios optimized to 22.5% [2] Group 4 - Revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 are estimated at 2.99 billion yuan and 3.26 billion yuan, with growth rates of 6.4% and 9.0% respectively [2] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are 420 million yuan and 470 million yuan, with growth rates of 0.9% and 10.5% respectively [2] - The company maintains a target price of HKD 3.69 per share, corresponding to 22x and 20x PE for 2025 and 2026, reflecting confidence in long-term value and industry recovery [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Jinxin Fertility [1][2]. Core Views - The demand for assisted reproductive technology (ART) in China is expected to reach a turning point, driven by delayed childbearing and the gradual release of policy benefits. The average childbearing age in China is approaching 30, leading to an increase in the proportion of older mothers and a significant rise in demand for ART [3][29]. - The company's overseas business is experiencing strong growth, particularly in the U.S., where the number of egg retrieval cycles is projected to increase by 18.2% year-on-year in 2024. New policies in California are expected to further boost demand for ART services [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Future Trends in China's Assisted Reproductive Demand - The number of newborns in China is expected to stabilize in 2024, with a continuous increase in the proportion of births from older mothers. The average childbearing age has risen to 29.0 years, with a significant demand for ART from older women [14][16]. - The penetration rate of ART in China is anticipated to accelerate as the average childbearing age surpasses 30, similar to trends observed in other developed countries [19][20]. - Payment policies are identified as a core factor influencing ART penetration rates, with significant room for improvement in China's healthcare insurance and subsidy policies [25][26]. 2. Revenue and Profit Outlook for Domestic and Overseas Businesses - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 28.1 billion, reflecting a modest growth of 0.8%, primarily due to patients delaying treatment in anticipation of policy changes [34]. - The domestic business is expected to stabilize, while the overseas business, particularly in the U.S., is set to grow significantly due to an increase in the number of doctors and favorable policy changes [38][40]. - The company has successfully controlled costs, with a sales and management expense ratio of approximately 22.5%, which has helped mitigate pressure on profit margins [44]. 3. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of RMB 29.9 billion and RMB 32.6 billion in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 6.4% and 9.0% [5][46]. - The adjusted net profit is forecasted to be RMB 4.2 billion and RMB 4.7 billion for the same years, with growth rates of 0.9% and 10.5% [5][46]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at HKD 3.69, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 22x for 2025 and 20x for 2026, reflecting confidence in the company's long-term value as a leader in the assisted reproductive sector [49].

Group 1 - The top three companies with the highest short positions are WuXi AppTec (02359), Ganfeng Lithium (01772), and Vanke Enterprises (02202), with short ratios of 15.63%, 14.23%, and 13.24% respectively [1][2] - The company with the largest increase in short positions is China Ruifeng (00136), which saw an increase of 2.52%, followed by Vanke Enterprises (02202) with an increase of 1.49%, and Rongchang Biologics (09995) with an increase of 1.18% [1][2] - The companies with the largest decrease in short positions include Zai Ding Pharmaceuticals (09688) with a decrease of 1.31%, Midea Group (00300) with a decrease of 0.80%, and Kanglong Chemical (03759) with a decrease of 0.76% [1][3] Group 2 - The latest short position data shows that the short ratio for WuXi AppTec decreased from 6168.69 million shares to 6050.95 million shares, while Ganfeng Lithium decreased from 5893.42 million shares to 5743.15 million shares [2] - The short ratio for Vanke Enterprises increased from 259 million shares to 292 million shares, indicating a growing bearish sentiment [2] - Other notable companies with significant changes in short positions include ZTE Corporation (00763) and Brilliance China Automotive (01114), with short ratios of 12.54% and 12.18% respectively [2]

Market Position and Expansion - Jinxin Fertility Group Limited has established a competitive advantage in the ARS market in China and the US, with recognized top-tier hospitals in regions such as Sichuan, the Greater Bay Area, and the western US[6]. - The company expanded its service offerings to include full-cycle fertility services, acquiring several hospitals and clinics, including the Sichuan Jinxin Xinan Hospital and the Hong Kong Fertility Health Center[6]. - The company entered the Southeast Asian IVF market through a partnership with PT Morula Indonesia, which operates 10 IVF clinics across Indonesia[7]. - The company is focused on expanding its capabilities to meet the growing demand for ARS services in Shenzhen and the Greater Bay Area, with new facilities set to open in 2025[6]. - The company has been focusing on expanding its market presence and enhancing operational efficiency post-acquisition[21]. - The company has a strategic focus on integrating operations following a series of acquisitions from 2016 to 2019[18]. - The company has expanded its digital hospital system into Southeast Asia, covering over 700 million people in China and Indonesia within a 2-3 hour travel radius[23]. - The company is actively seeking to expand its business network through acquisitions in high-growth markets, considering factors like economic environment and IVF penetration rates[66]. Financial Performance - Revenue for the year ended December 31, 2023, was RMB 2,788,910 thousand, representing a 17.9% increase from RMB 2,364,479 thousand in 2022[14]. - Gross profit for the same period was RMB 1,175,445 thousand, with a gross margin of 42.1%[14]. - Adjusted net profit for 2023 was RMB 471,451 thousand, with an adjusted net profit margin of 16.9%[14]. - The company aims to achieve a revenue of RMB 2,811,596 thousand in 2024, indicating a slight growth forecast[14]. - The group’s revenue increased by approximately RMB 22.7 million or 0.8% to about RMB 2,811.6 million for the year ending December 31, 2024, despite a 6.3% decrease in total egg retrieval cycles[72]. - The group's gross profit decreased by 6.5% to approximately RMB 1,099.5 million, with a gross margin decline from 42.1% to 39.1%[74]. - Net profit decreased by 21.2% from approximately RMB 347.0 million for the year ended December 31, 2023, to approximately RMB 273.5 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, mainly due to a reduction in one-time government subsidies and foreign exchange losses[82]. - Adjusted net profit under non-IFRS measures decreased by 11.7% from approximately RMB 471.5 million for the year ended December 31, 2023, to approximately RMB 416.3 million for the year ending December 31, 2024[83]. Operational Developments - In 2024, HRC Medical successfully recruited 5 new doctors and signed contracts with an additional 12 doctors expected to join in the next two years, enhancing its operational capacity[6]. - The company has centralized capital expenditure decision-making to improve efficiency and support strategic investments, particularly in HRC, which has seen historical highs in market share and practitioner numbers[32]. - The company aims to enhance customer lifetime value through a one-stop service model, optimizing product structure, and introducing high-tech services[33]. - The company is focusing on expanding its health management services across the full life cycle, including new specialized clinics[52]. - The company is focusing on clinical research projects that combine AI and big data to improve diagnostic capabilities and enhance its academic brand influence in the industry[61]. Government Policies and Market Trends - The Chinese government has implemented supportive policies to increase the penetration rate and market size of assisted reproductive services, allowing couples to have up to three children[8]. - By the end of 2022, assisted reproductive medical services were included in the medical insurance payment scope across all 31 provinces and municipalities in mainland China[8]. - The government is expected to establish a special fund covering the entire lifecycle of "fertility, nurturing, and education," marking a significant elevation in fertility support policies[9]. - The company anticipates structural long-term development opportunities for private medical institutions due to adjustments in public attitudes towards fertility and government policies[9]. - The company expects further improvements in birth rates and assisted reproductive service penetration due to the introduction of fertility support policies and inclusion of assisted reproduction in national health insurance[39][40]. Challenges and Risks - The company acknowledges over-optimism in regional expansion plans, particularly after the Wuhan project achieved over 1,200 cycles in 8 months during the pandemic, but faced challenges such as declining birth rates and real estate market downturns[33]. - The group has faced significant risks related to strict industry regulations affecting assisted reproductive medical institutions, which could adversely impact business performance[148]. - The group is sensitive to local conditions in key regions such as Sichuan, Guangdong, and California, which could affect its operational performance[148]. Shareholder and Capital Structure - The company has seen a significant change in its shareholder structure post-pandemic, with long-term value not fully recognized by the market[33]. - The company will initiate a syndicate loan project supported by over RMB 700 million in healthy operating cash flow to optimize loan structure and reduce debt burden[35]. - The company has no significant contingent liabilities or guarantees as of December 31, 2024[100]. - The company has received annual independence confirmation letters from independent non-executive directors, affirming their independence during the reporting period[179]. Management and Governance - The company has a strong management team with extensive experience in the healthcare sector, including nearly 20 years of experience for Ms. Duan[142]. - The management team has extensive experience in finance and investment, with Mr. Dong Yang previously serving as CFO at Jinxin Medical Investment Limited[112]. - The board of directors includes members with significant legal and corporate governance experience, enhancing oversight and independent judgment[134]. - The company has appointed Mr. Fang Min as a non-executive director since December 25, 2018, who has over 20 years of experience in financial management and business development[124]. Future Outlook - The company plans to continue investing in new technologies and product development to enhance service offerings[21]. - The company is preparing for the next wave of policy benefits while focusing on daily operations and pausing large hospital investment projects[35]. - The company plans to recruit additional doctors in the U.S., aiming for a total of 40 by 2027, to strengthen its presence in the U.S. market[57]. - The company aims to enhance its reputation and brand image by improving its capabilities in treating complex and high-risk conditions, thereby attracting a broader patient base[61].