保险观点更新：把握宽基抛压缓释后的顺周期龙头机会 评级： 增持（维持） 分析师：葛玉翔 执业证书编号：S0740525040002 Email：geyx01@zts.com.cn 分析师：蒋峤 执业证书编号：S0740517090005 Email：jiangqiao@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | --- | 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 事件：我们认为自去年 12 月以来保险板块先后历经 " 开门红预期好转 —— 长端利率回 升 —— 指数上攻强化利润弹性 " 的顺周期逻辑，"短期看资金面抛压缓解，中期看"存 款搬家 & 慢牛持续"提振价值与利润增速，长期看顺周期兑现告别利差损隐忧"，我们 重申板块当前投资价值。 基本状况 行业-市场走势对比 境内宽基 ETF 交易层面压制逐步出现转向迹象，广发中证港股通非银 ETF 持续净流 入彰显板块基本面支撑。2026 年 1 月第二个交易周以来，主要宽基 ETF 成交量明显 放大，呈现显著净流出态势。我们对 1 月 15 日至 1 月 28 日之间累计宽基 ETF 净流 出规模超过百亿元所跟踪指数进行加权，排序如下：沪深 300 指数（62.0%） ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Financial Supervision Administration of Anshan has approved the relocation of the business premises for the Tai'an branch of China Ping An Property & Casualty Insurance Co., Ltd. [1] Group 1 - The new business location for the Tai'an branch is specified as: No. 15, East 4, Shuxiangyuan Community, North Section of Taihuan Road, Tai'an Town, Tai'an County, Liaoning Province [1] - China Ping An Property & Casualty Insurance Co., Ltd. is required to handle the change and obtain the necessary permits in accordance with relevant regulations [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic bond market sentiment has improved with the weakening of the US dollar and the sharp rise of precious metals. In January, the yield of the 10Y bond showed a trend of first rising and then falling, with the 5Y - 7Y varieties favored by allocation investors showing a significant decline [2]. - The calendar effect of the bond market around the Spring Festival is not obvious, and the direction depends on the capital market and fundamental expectations. In February, bond market volatility is likely to increase, and there are potential risks both overseas and domestically. From the perspective of supply and demand, the pressure on the liability side of banks is not large, and the supply in February is expected to increase but the pressure may be limited. Other institutions such as insurance and wealth management may still have the ability to allocate, while small - scale banks among the trading investors may face some pressure, but funds with light positions may start to gradually deploy [3]. - The 10Y Treasury bond is still in the range of 1.80% - 1.90% since November 2025, and it is expected to remain so in February. Attention should be paid to structural opportunities, such as short - term gaming of ultra - long - term spread compression when the 10 - year Treasury yield approaches 1.80%, focusing on the carry trade opportunities of medium - and short - term credit bonds, especially financial bonds, and seizing the convex points on the yield curve [4]. 3. Summary by Directory PART1: The weakening of the US dollar and the sharp rise of precious metals have led to an improvement in the domestic bond market sentiment Overseas - In January, Hassett was likely to be out of the race for the Fed chair, leading to a downward revision of the expected interest rate cut within the year and an adjustment in US Treasury bonds. The 10 - year US Treasury yield first rose and then fell, and the term spread first flattened and then rebounded [7][8]. - Major asset classes followed Trump's trade policies. The US dollar weakened, and precious metals and industrial metals rose. Gold prices exceeded 5000 points, and the US stock market fluctuated [11][13]. Domestic - Due to the cross - year period and tax payment period in January, the capital market tightened marginally, and the bond market leverage ratio dropped to around the median. However, the central bank actively injected over one trillion yuan of long - term liquidity [16]. - The historic bullish start of the stock market in January suppressed the bond market, but later the bond market sentiment improved. The 10Y bond yield first rose and then fell, with the 5Y - 7Y varieties favored by allocation investors showing a decline [20][21]. - In terms of institutional behavior: - Large - scale banks reduced their bond - allocation scale but increased the duration, mainly increasing their allocation of 5 - 10Y Treasury bonds [25]. - Insurance companies increased their bond - allocation scale in January but slightly reduced the duration, mainly increasing their allocation of inter - bank certificates of deposit [31][33]. - Small and medium - sized banks mainly allocated inter - bank certificates of deposit, with a relatively conservative trading style [38]. - Funds reduced their positions and mainly allocated credit bonds [41]. - Wealth management products' bond - allocation scale in January was in line with the seasonal pattern, mainly increasing their allocation of short - term policy - financial bonds within 1 year [48][51]. PART2: Outlook for the bond market around the Spring Festival - The calendar effect of the bond market around the Spring Festival is not obvious, and the direction depends on the capital market and fundamental expectations. However, bond market volatility tends to increase in February. The factors leading to increased volatility in February in previous years include domestic liquidity tightening, economic recovery expectations, and improved risk appetite, as well as the upward risk of US Treasury yields overseas [59][64]. - Current potential risks include overseas short - term inflation risks, better - than - expected AI performance in US stocks, and ongoing trade and geopolitical frictions; domestic potential disturbances include January's credit and inflation data and the resurgence of risk appetite in the equity market [64]. - From the supply - demand perspective, the pressure on the liability side of banks is not large, and the supply in February is expected to increase but the pressure may be limited. Other institutions such as insurance and wealth management may still have the ability to allocate, while small - scale banks among the trading investors may face some pressure, but funds with light positions may start to gradually deploy [3][72]. PART3: Bond market strategy for February 2026 - The 10Y Treasury bond is still in the range of 1.80% - 1.90% since November 2025, and it is expected to remain so in February. Bullish investors need aggregate stimuli such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts to break through the range downward, while bearish investors need scenarios such as improved risk appetite, better - than - expected economic data, and renewed pressure on the liability side of banks [4]. - Structural opportunities include: - When the 10 - year Treasury yield approaches the lower limit of 1.80%, short - term gaming of ultra - long - term spread compression may be more cost - effective, but the timing needs to be well - grasped [4][77]. - Focus on the carry trade opportunities of medium - and short - term credit bonds, especially financial bonds. Currently, the carry trade space for 1 - 3Y credit bonds is about 30BP, and the supply of credit bonds in February may decline year - on - year [80]. - Seize the convex points on the yield curve, such as 20Y local bonds, 10Y Export - Import Bank bonds, and 5Y China Development Bank bonds [84].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][6]. Core Views - The company has been continuously promoting liability-side business and value transformation, significantly improving product structure and channel value rates. Recent easing of real estate risks is favorable for further valuation enhancement [2][15]. - The company is expected to maintain its earnings forecast for 2025 to 2027, with projected EPS of 7.72, 8.57, and 9.26 CNY per share, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to P/EV ratios of 0.77, 0.69, and 0.63 [2][15]. - The company is anticipated to have a clear valuation recovery space, with an expected annual growth rate of approximately 11% in EV over the next three years, suggesting a reasonable P/EV valuation range of 1.02 to 1.13 [2][15]. Summary by Sections Business Transformation - The company is shifting from a scale-oriented approach to a value-oriented strategy, reducing the proportion of low-value short-term savings products and focusing on long-term protection and savings products. The integration of "insurance + services" enhances customer stickiness and premium capabilities [3][7]. - As of mid-2025, the company has served over 13 million customers in health management, with home care services covering 85 cities and nearly 210,000 customers qualifying for home care services [3]. Channel Development - The company is implementing deep reforms in its sales channels, focusing on high-quality development. The agent channel has seen a 17% increase in new business value, with a 21.6% increase in per capita new business value [9][13]. - The company is expanding its bancassurance channel and other innovative channels, with bancassurance new business value growth reaching 168.6%, ranking among the top in the industry [9][13]. Real Estate Policy Impact - Recent regulatory changes have eased constraints on real estate financing, which is expected to improve market expectations regarding the quality of insurance capital's real estate exposure. This is likely to drive valuation recovery for companies like Ping An [14][15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the short-selling activities of various companies, with specific focus on the short-selling ratios and amounts for leading firms in the market [1][2]. Group 2 - The top three companies by short-selling ratio are BYD Company Limited (95.08%), Lenovo Group Limited (85.25%), and Baidu Group (76.60%) [1]. - The highest short-selling amounts are recorded for China Ping An (1.88 billion), Xiaomi Group (1.086 billion), and Alibaba Group (1.062 billion) [2]. - The top three companies with the highest deviation values, indicating significant short-selling activity compared to their historical averages, are Baidu Group (39.38%), BYD Company Limited (35.91%), and Fuhong Hanlin (27.27%) [1][2].

国家统计局最新数据显示，2025年末，我国60岁及以上人口达32338万人，占比23%；65岁及以上人口 22365万人，占比15.9%。人口老龄化进程持续深化，如何织密老年群体福祉保障网、破解居家安全与 生活便利难题，成为社会治理与民生服务的重要课题。平安产险福建分公司立足"金融为民"初心，以公 益实践为抓手、以服务升级为支撑，创新推出"银发安居"公益计划，构建"居家微改造+全链条适老服 务"体系，用专业力量守护"最美夕阳红"。 邻里心声为引 公益改造暖银龄 "夜里起夜摸黑找门把手，卫生间地面湿滑总怕摔跤。"在与留守老人张奶奶的一次邻里闲聊中，平安产 险建瓯支公司志愿者敏锐捕捉到老年群体居家生活的痛点。急老人之所急，一场精准化的适老微改造迅 速落地。 1月27日，平安产险建瓯支公司志愿者团队携带适老物资上门，依据老年人行动特性开展系统性安全升 级：在卧室、玄关门把处粘贴夜光贴，柔和荧光照亮夜间通行路；于卫浴区及室内过渡区域铺设防滑 贴，通过"贴压确认"工艺筑牢安全防线；用固定扣规整杂乱家电线缆，避免拖拽绊倒风险，同时细致排 查插线板老化情况，现场提醒隐患设备更换要点。 同日，志愿者团队还为小区另一户老人家庭 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 27,742.89, down by 225.20 points or 0.81% as of January 29, 16:00 Eastern Time [1] - The index reached a high of 27,909.81 and a low of 27,419.65 during the trading session, with an average price of 27,664.73 [1] - The 52-week high for the index is 27,909.81, while the 52-week low is 19,335.70 [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - Most large-cap stocks experienced declines, with HSBC Holdings closing at HKD 138.219, up 0.45% compared to the Hong Kong close [2] - Tencent Holdings closed at HKD 619.286, down 0.44% from the Hong Kong close [2] Individual Stock Movements - Tencent Holdings (00700) latest price is HKD 622.000, with a slight increase of 1.000 or 0.16% [3] - Alibaba Group (09988) latest price is HKD 173.300, down by 0.200 or 0.12% [3] - HSBC Holdings (00005) latest price is HKD 137.600, up by 0.100 or 0.07% [3] - China Construction Bank (00939) latest price is HKD 8.160, up by 0.130 or 1.62% [3] - AIA Group (01299) latest price is HKD 90.950, up by 2.100 or 2.36% [3] - Xiaomi Group (01810) latest price is HKD 36.620, up by 0.300 or 0.83% [3] - NetEase (099999) latest price is HKD 206.600, down by 5.400 or 2.55% [3] - Meituan (03690) latest price is HKD 98.600, up by 0.250 or 0.25% [3] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (01398) latest price is HKD 6.640, up by 0.050 or 0.76% [3] - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388) latest price is HKD 444.200, up by 5.000 or 1.14% [3] - Ping An Insurance (02318) latest price is HKD 73.300, up by 2.350 or 3.31% [3] - Baidu Group (09888) latest price is HKD 155.500, down by 0.600 or 0.38% [3] - China Bank (03988) latest price is HKD 4.760, up by 0.090 or 1.93% [3] - BYD Company (01211) latest price is HKD 101.800, down by 1.000 or 0.97% [3] - JD.com (09618) latest price is HKD 114.600, down by 1.700 or 1.46% [3] - Ctrip Group (09961) latest price is HKD 482.200, down by 13.200 or 2.66% [3]

Core Viewpoint - Insurance funds are significantly penetrating the medical, health, and elderly care industries, with over 400 billion yuan invested, driven by aging population and health strategies [2][4]. Investment Scale and Focus - As of 2025, insurance funds are projected to invest over 1.5 trillion yuan in medical-related assets through various investment products, including debt and equity plans [4]. - Direct investments in the medical and elderly care sectors have reached nearly 30 billion yuan, covering biotechnology, new drug technology, and medical devices [4]. - The insurance industry is also focusing on building elderly care communities, with 130 projects expected by the end of 2024, marking a 38% year-on-year increase [5]. Strategic Shift - Insurance companies are transitioning from "risk compensators" to "health and elderly care ecosystem builders," aiming to create a "second growth curve" through integrated services [2][6]. - The competition is shifting from resource allocation to ecological collaboration efficiency, emphasizing the integration of insurance, services, and data [10]. Market Potential - The health and elderly care industry in China is projected to reach a market size of 9.8 trillion yuan by 2025, with expectations to grow to 14.6 trillion yuan by 2030 [7]. - Policies are encouraging insurance companies to integrate their services with health management and elderly care, enhancing their strategic importance [8]. Future Outlook - The insurance sector is expected to accelerate its investment in health and elderly care, leveraging policy guidance to create differentiated competitive advantages [8][9]. - The focus will be on transforming health management from a cost center to a profit center, with a need for sustainable business models [12]. - Challenges include talent shortages, data integration, and aligning product design with the actual risks faced by the elderly population [12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the report on Ping An Insurance (601318.SH) is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][6]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that Ping An has been continuously promoting the transformation of its liability business and value, significantly enhancing product structure and channel value rates. The recent easing of real estate risks is expected to further boost Ping An's valuation [2][15]. - The report maintains the earnings forecast for Ping An from 2025 to 2027, projecting EPS of 7.72, 8.57, and 9.26 CNY per share, with current P/EV ratios of 0.77, 0.69, and 0.63 respectively. The report suggests a reasonable P/EV valuation range of 1.02 to 1.13 times for Ping An [2][15]. Summary by Sections Business Transformation and Product Structure - Ping An is shifting from a scale-oriented approach to a value-oriented strategy, reducing the proportion of low-value short-term savings products and focusing on long-term protection and savings products. The company has served over 13 million customers in health management as of mid-2025, with home care services covering 85 cities [3][7]. - The new business value for Ping An's life and health insurance segments reached 22.335 billion CNY in mid-2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 39.8%, leading the industry [3]. Channel Development - The report highlights the importance of multi-channel sales and service ecosystems, with significant improvements in the quality of the agent channel. The new business value from the agent channel grew by 17.0% year-on-year, with per capita new business value increasing by 21.6% [9][13]. - The bank insurance channel has also seen rapid growth, with a 168.6% increase in new business value, positioning Ping An among the top performers in the industry [9]. Real Estate Policy Impact - Recent regulatory changes have eased constraints on real estate financing, which is expected to improve market perceptions of the quality of insurance companies' real estate exposure. This is anticipated to facilitate valuation recovery for companies like Ping An [14][15].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][6] Core Views - The company has been continuously promoting liability-side business and value transformation, significantly improving product structure and channel value rates. Recent easing of real estate risks is favorable for further valuation enhancement [2][15] - The company is expected to maintain its earnings forecast for 2025 to 2027, with projected EPS of 7.72, 8.57, and 9.26 CNY per share. The current stock price corresponds to P/EV ratios of 0.77, 0.69, and 0.63x for the same period [2][15] - The company is anticipated to have a clear valuation recovery space, with an expected annual growth rate of approximately 11% for EV over the next three years, leading to a reasonable P/EV valuation range of 1.02 to 1.13 [2][15] Summary by Sections Business Transformation - The company is shifting from a scale-oriented approach to a value-oriented upgrade, reducing the proportion of low-value short-term savings products and focusing on long-term protection and savings products. The integration of "insurance + services" enhances customer stickiness and policy premium capabilities [3][15] - As of mid-2025, the company has served over 13 million customers in health management, with home care services covering 85 cities and nearly 210,000 customers qualifying for home care services [3][15] Product and Channel Performance - The company has seen a 39.8% year-on-year increase in new business value in its life and health insurance sectors, reaching 22.335 billion CNY, leading the industry [3][15] - The agent channel has improved significantly, with new business value growth of 17.0% and per capita new business value growth of 21.6% as of mid-2025 [9][15] - The company is diversifying its channels, with the bancassurance channel showing a remarkable growth rate of 168.6% in new business value, ranking among the top in the industry [9][15] Real Estate Policy Impact - Recent relaxation of real estate policies is seen as a key factor in alleviating valuation constraints for insurance stocks. The exit of the "three red lines" policy and ongoing debt restructuring in the real estate sector are expected to improve market expectations for asset quality related to insurance capital [14][15] Financial Projections - The company’s financial forecasts indicate a net profit of 160.784 million CNY for 2025, with a projected growth in EPS to 7.72 CNY [20][15] - Key financial metrics show an expected P/EV of 0.77 for 2025, with a gradual increase in net profit and business value over the next few years [20][15]