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中国平安:Expect $3.5bn CB dilutive effect to be short-term
招银国际· 2024-07-17 06:31
Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Ping An with a target price of HK$52.00, implying a potential upside of 52.5% from the current price of HK$34.10 [5][4]. Core Insights - The issuance of US$3.5 billion convertible bonds is expected to have a limited dilutive impact of approximately 3.43% on existing shares, with the initial conversion price set at HK$43.71, representing a premium of 21.2% over the closing price on July 15, 2024 [4][20]. - The potential use of proceeds from the convertible bonds is aimed at boosting the core solvency ratio of Ping An Life, which is projected to rise by 6.4 percentage points to 125.2% in 1Q24, assuming all proceeds are injected into the business [4][29]. - The stock is currently trading at FY24E 0.48x P/EV and 0.70x P/B, with an expected dividend yield of 8.0% and FY24E ROE at 13.2% [4][17]. Financial Summary - For FY24E, the net profit is estimated at RMB 154.021 billion, with an EPS of RMB 7.18, reflecting a growth trajectory from previous years [17][24]. - The core solvency ratio for Ping An Life was reported at 118.8% in 1Q24, which is above the industry average of 113.5% [4][29]. - The comprehensive solvency ratio for Ping An P&C is projected to be 199.1% in 1Q24, indicating strong financial health [9][4]. Share Capital and Structure - Following the full conversion of the bonds, the total number of H-shares will increase to approximately 8.07 billion, accounting for 42.9% of the enlarged share capital [4][20]. - The report also notes the cancellation of 102.6 million A-shares, which will partially offset the dilutive effect of the convertible bonds and increase the H-share proportion to 43.1% [4][20]. Valuation Metrics - The report highlights a projected dividend yield of 8.0% for FY24E, with a consistent increase in dividend payouts expected over the next few years [17][35]. - The P/B ratio is expected to decrease to 0.63x by FY25E, indicating a potential undervaluation of the stock [40][17].
中国平安:预计 35 亿美元的 CB 稀释效应将是短期的
招银国际· 2024-07-17 06:22
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HK$52.00, implying a 52.5% upside from the current price of HK$34.10 [2][4]. Core Insights - The company announced the issuance of US$3.5 billion in convertible bonds (CB) with a conversion premium of 21.2%, which is expected to have a limited dilution effect of approximately 3.43% on existing shares [5][12][23]. - The financing is anticipated to support the core subsidiary, Ping An Life, with a relatively low cost of capital, enhancing its solvency ratios [5][15]. - The estimated core solvency ratio for Ping An Life is projected to increase by 6.4 percentage points to 125.2% following the capital injection from the CB issuance [5][26]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected net profit for FY24E is estimated at RMB 154.021 billion, with an EPS of RMB 7.18 [5][46]. - The dividend per share (DPS) is expected to be HK$2.53 for FY24E, reflecting a dividend yield of 8.0% [5][46]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 13.2% for FY24E, indicating a positive trend in profitability [5][46]. Valuation Metrics - The stock is currently trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 0.48x for FY24E and a price-to-embedded value (P/EV) of 1.0x [2][46]. - The estimated net asset return rate is 13.2% for FY24E, which is favorable compared to industry averages [5][46]. Market Performance - The stock has experienced a decline of 5.41% following the CB announcement, but this is viewed as a short-term fluctuation [2][6]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately HK$620.961 billion, with a 52-week high of HK$56.25 and a low of HK$29.80 [9].
中国平安:平安对陆金所特别股息选择以股代息的影响分析
交银国际证券· 2024-07-05 01:01
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ping An Insurance, with a target price of HKD 51, indicating a potential upside of 38.4% from the current price of HKD 36.85 [7][18]. Core Insights - Ping An's decision to receive special dividends in shares rather than cash has increased its stake in Lufax from 41.4% to 56.82%, allowing it to consolidate Lufax as a subsidiary in its financial statements [5][7]. - Lufax reported a turnaround in its pre-tax profit for Q1 2024, although it is still expected to incur losses for the full year. However, significant improvement in profitability is anticipated for 2025 [1][7]. - The share price of Lufax's American Depositary Shares (ADS) was noted at USD 2.95, which is higher than the offer price of USD 2.254, indicating that Ping An has no intention of privatizing Lufax or changing its listing status [2][7]. Summary by Sections Shareholding Structure Changes - Prior to the special dividend, Ping An held 41.4% of Lufax, with the second-largest shareholder, Tun Kung, holding 26.87%. After the dividend distribution, Ping An's stake increased to 56.82%, while Tun Kung's stake decreased to 17.78% [5][27]. - The new shareholding structure post-dividend distribution shows Ping An's significant increase in ownership, which reflects confidence in Lufax's business prospects [5][7]. Financial Implications - The consolidation of Lufax will result in financial changes for Ping An, but these will be classified as non-recurring items and will not affect its operating profit after tax (OPAT) [7]. - The report projects that Ping An's operating profit for 2024 is likely to show positive growth from last year's low levels, reinforcing the attractiveness of its current valuation [7].
1Q24 NBV beat; Life OPAT y/y turned positive
招银国际· 2024-04-25 06:02
Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating with a target price of HK$52.00, implying a 51.2% upside from the current price of HK$34.40 [2][3]. Core Insights - The first-quarter results for Ping An show resilience in core lines, with Life VNB increasing by 20.7% YoY to RMB12.9 billion, surpassing market consensus and previous estimates [2]. - The growth in VNB is attributed to a significant rise in VNB margin, which increased by 6.5 percentage points YoY to 22.8%, despite sluggish sales in the 2024 jumpstart period [2]. - Group OPAT decreased by 3.0% YoY to RMB38.7 billion, but this is a significant improvement from a decline of 19.7% YoY by the end of 2023 [2]. - Life & Health OPAT turned positive with a growth of 2.2% YoY to RMB27.3 billion, contributing to a 0.3% YoY OPAT growth across the three core segments: Ping An Life & Health, P&C, and PAB [2]. - Asset management returned to profitability with a net profit of RMB910 million in 1Q24, compared to a loss of RMB20.7 billion by the end of 2023 [2]. Summary by Sections Life Insurance - Life VNB rose by 20.7% YoY to RMB12.9 billion in 1Q24, driven by a VNB margin increase to 22.8% [2][16]. - The number of life insurance agents decreased by 4.0% YoY to 0.33 million, but the productivity per agent increased by 56.4% YoY [2][16]. Property & Casualty (P&C) Insurance - P&C insurance revenue grew by 5.7% YoY to RMB80.6 billion, with a combined ratio (CoR) of 99.6%, reflecting a 0.9 percentage point increase [2][16]. - Underwriting profit in P&C declined by 67.5% YoY to RMB323 million, attributed to increased claims from catastrophes [2][16]. Asset Management - The asset management segment reported a net profit of RMB910 million in 1Q24, a recovery from a significant loss in the previous year [2][16]. Financial Projections - FY24-26E EPS revised down to RMB6.42, RMB7.05, and RMB7.61, respectively, from previous estimates of RMB6.94, RMB7.87, and RMB8.62 [2][3]. - The stock is currently trading at FY24 0.47x P/EV and 0.71x P/B, with potential upside driven by improved market sentiment and rising investment yields [2][3].
盈利表现稳健,新业务价值率超预期,维持买入
交银国际证券· 2024-04-25 03:02
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 51.00, indicating a potential upside of 48.3% from the current closing price of HKD 34.40 [1][3][4]. Core Insights - The company's earnings performance is stable, with new business value exceeding expectations. In Q1 2024, the operating profit after tax (OPAT) decreased by 3% year-on-year, primarily due to declines in technology, property and casualty insurance, and asset management sectors. However, life and health insurance grew by 2.2%, and banking increased by 2.3%, partially offsetting the declines [1][2]. - The new business value saw a significant increase of 20.7% year-on-year, with the new business value rate rising to 22.8%, up by 6.5 percentage points, driven by a shift towards protection-type products and longer payment cycles [2][3]. - The comprehensive cost ratio for property and casualty insurance increased to 99.6%, reflecting a 0.9 percentage point rise year-on-year, while investment yields slightly declined [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2024, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 36,709 million, down 4.3% year-on-year, while OPAT was RMB 38,709 million, a decrease of 3.0% [8]. - The life and health insurance segment reported OPAT of RMB 27,288 million, a growth of 2.2% year-on-year, while the property insurance segment saw a decline of 14.3% [8]. - The asset management sector turned profitable compared to Q4 2023, with expectations of improved profitability moving forward [1][3]. Earnings Forecast Adjustments - The report projects an increase in new business value for 2024E to RMB 35,359 million, reflecting a 14.2% adjustment from previous estimates [8]. - The new business value rate is expected to rise to 23.6% for 2024E, indicating continued improvement in product structure and profitability [8][9]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024E is set at RMB 98,288 million, representing a 14.7% year-on-year growth [9].
中国平安(02318) - 2024 Q1 - 季度业绩
2024-04-23 09:13
Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company achieved an operating profit of RMB 38.709 billion, a decrease of 3.0% year-on-year[20]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 36.709 billion, down 4.3% compared to the same period last year[18]. - The operating profit for the group in Q1 2024 was RMB 47.068 billion, with significant contributions from various business segments[43]. - The company reported a net profit of RMB 45.050 billion for Q1 2024, with a net profit attributable to the parent company's shareholders of RMB 36.709 billion[43]. - For the three months ending March 31, 2024, the net profit was RMB 45,050 million, a decrease of 2.4% compared to RMB 46,165 million in the same period of 2023[173]. - The company’s basic earnings per share for the three months ending March 31, 2024, was RMB 2.07, compared to RMB 2.17 in the same period of 2023, indicating a decrease of 4.6%[153]. - The company recorded a total comprehensive income of RMB 14,198 million, a significant decrease from RMB 47,996 million in the previous year[173]. Insurance and Revenue - The insurance service revenue from property insurance reached RMB 80.627 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.7%[16]. - The new business value of life and health insurance was RMB 12.890 billion, representing a significant increase of 20.7% year-on-year[18]. - The new business value for life and health insurance reached RMB 12,890 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.7%[66]. - The total premium income for the same period was RMB 238,146 million, reflecting a growth of 1.6% from RMB 234,333 million in 2023[163]. - The first-year premium used to calculate new business value decreased by 13.6% to RMB 56,628 million from RMB 65,514 million[80]. - The new business value rate for life and health insurance was 22.8%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.5 percentage points on a comparable basis[46]. Customer Metrics - The number of individual customers reached approximately 233.78 million, a growth of 1.0% from the beginning of the year[25]. - The number of individual customers reached 23,378,000, a 1.0% increase from 23,157,000[125]. - The number of retail customers reached 125.84 million, with a 2.1% increase since the beginning of the year[57]. - Over 63% of the 234 million individual customers used services from the medical and elderly care ecosystem, with an average of 3.37 contracts per customer[97]. - The cumulative number of health management services provided reached over 10 million customers by Q1 2024[51]. Investment and Financial Position - As of March 31, 2024, the investment scale of debt plans and debt-type financial products was RMB 404.767 billion, accounting for 8.2% of total investment assets[23]. - The annualized comprehensive investment return rate for the insurance fund investment portfolio was 3.1%, with a net investment return rate of 3.0%[53]. - The insurance fund investment portfolio exceeded RMB 4.93 trillion, growing by 4.4% since the beginning of the year[85]. - The total assets as of March 31, 2024, amounted to RMB 11,982,296 million, an increase from RMB 11,583,417 million as of December 31, 2023[174]. - The total liabilities rose to RMB 10,740,156 million as of March 31, 2024, up from RMB 10,354,453 million as of December 31, 2023, indicating an increase of 3.73%[175]. - The total equity attributable to shareholders increased to RMB 904,970 million as of March 31, 2024, compared to RMB 899,011 million as of December 31, 2023, reflecting a growth of 0.22%[175]. Operational Efficiency - The comprehensive cost ratio for property insurance rose to 99.6%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to adverse weather conditions[16]. - The average number of contracts per individual customer was 2.94, slightly down by 0.3% year-on-year[18]. - The number of individual life insurance sales agents decreased by 4.0% to 333,000 as of the end of Q1 2024[46]. - The company continues to enhance its operational management and aims for steady recovery and growth in performance[131]. Strategic Focus - The company continues to focus on a "comprehensive finance + healthcare" dual-wheel strategy, emphasizing high-quality development and customer demand[40]. - The company aims to enhance its insurance protection functions while addressing challenges such as insufficient effective demand and industry overcapacity[40]. - The company aims to maintain strategic focus and deepen its "comprehensive finance + healthcare and elderly care" dual-wheel strategy, emphasizing technology-driven growth despite economic challenges[131]. Cash Flow and Financing - The company’s cash flow from operating activities for the three months ending March 31, 2024, was RMB 74,958 million, compared to RMB 209,986 million in the same period of 2023[156]. - The net cash inflow from financing activities was RMB (12,022) million, significantly improved from RMB (99,090) million in the previous year[173]. - The total cash flow used in investing activities was RMB (27,575) million for the period ending March 31, 2024[178].
Resilient DPS despite OPAT decline; EV assumptions change cut VNB more than expected
招银国际· 2024-03-27 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for the company with a new target price of HK$52.00, implying a 57.6% upside from the current price of HK$33.00 [21][24]. Core Insights - The company reported a decline in OPAT by 19.7% to RMB 118.0 billion, primarily due to a net loss of RMB 20.7 billion from asset management. Despite this, the company sustained dividend per share (DPS) growth to RMB 2.43, reflecting a 37.3% payout on shareholders' OPAT [21][24]. - The life and health (L&H) value of new business (VNB) amounted to RMB 39.3 billion, representing a 36.2% year-on-year increase, driven by stable VNB margins [21][24]. - Economic assumptions were adjusted, lowering the long-term investment return from 5.0% to 4.5% and the risk discount rate from 11% to 9.5%, which resulted in a significant impact on the embedded value (EV) and VNB [21][24]. Financial Summary - For FY23, net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 85.7 billion, down 22.8% from the previous year, with a reported EPS of RMB 4.84 [29][30]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from RMB 11,583.4 billion in FY23 to RMB 13,760.7 billion by FY26, indicating a steady increase in asset base [11]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 9.7% in FY23 to 14.3% by FY26, reflecting enhanced profitability [30]. Valuation Metrics - The stock is currently trading at 0.45x FY24E P/EV, with a target valuation of 1.0x FY24E P/EV and 0.9x FY24E P/B [24][28]. - The company’s dividend yield is projected to increase from 6.9% in FY23 to 8.7% by FY26, indicating a strong return to shareholders [3][30]. Embedded Value and Sensitivity Analysis - The Group's embedded value is estimated at RMB 1,390.1 billion for FY23, reflecting a decrease of 6.7% due to the revised economic assumptions [21][25]. - The sensitivity analysis indicates that a 50 basis point decrease in long-term investment return could lead to a 7.6% decline in Group EV [8][21].
预计2024年主要业绩指标呈改善趋势,维持买入
交银国际证券· 2024-03-25 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price adjusted from HKD 64 to HKD 51, indicating a potential upside of 52.5% from the current closing price of HKD 33.45 [1][3][22]. Core Views - The report anticipates an improvement in key performance indicators for 2024, driven by stable contributions from the company's core businesses in life insurance, health insurance, property insurance, and banking [1][3][35]. - Concerns regarding the decline in the core solvency ratio are noted, but the company is expected to maintain its dividend capacity in the medium term [1][35]. - The investment logic in the industry has shifted from growth to stable profitability based on high dividends, with the company positioned favorably in the "comprehensive finance + technology" sector [3][54]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company expects a 3.5% revenue growth in 2024, with projected revenues of RMB 946,114 million [6]. - Net profit is forecasted to increase by 13.2% in 2024, reaching RMB 96,994 million, following a decline of 22.5% in 2023 [6][55]. - The operating profit after tax (OPAT) is expected to rebound by 11% in 2024, primarily due to growth in property insurance profits and a reduction in asset management losses [7][20]. Business Segments - Life and health insurance OPAT is projected to remain stable in 2024, while property insurance is expected to see a significant recovery in underwriting profits [20][27]. - The asset management segment is anticipated to narrow its losses in 2024, with improvements expected as capital markets stabilize [12][20]. - The report highlights that the company has successfully eliminated the drag from financing guarantee insurance, leading to an expected improvement in the combined ratio for property insurance to 99.2% in 2024, down from 100.7% in 2023 [15][21]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s current valuation reflects an attractive investment opportunity, with a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 5.8 for 2024 and a price-to-embedded value (P/EV) of 0.39 [6][54]. - The dividend per share is projected to increase to RMB 2.51 in 2024, with a dividend payout ratio based on OPAT of 35% [55]. Market Position - The company is recognized for its competitive advantage in the comprehensive financial services sector, leveraging technology to enhance its offerings [3][54]. - The report emphasizes the company's ability to withstand interest rate risks due to a balanced product structure and robust investment performance [53].
中国平安(02318) - 2023 - 年度业绩
2024-03-21 10:16
Financial Performance - Ping An reported a total revenue of 1.2 trillion RMB for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 10%[19]. - The operating profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is RMB 117,989 million, a decrease of 19.6% from RMB 146,895 million in 2022[24]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is RMB 85,665 million, down 22.8% from RMB 111,008 million in 2022[24]. - The company anticipates a growth rate of 8-10% in total revenue for the upcoming fiscal year, driven by its comprehensive financial services model[19]. - The net profit for 2023 was RMB 89.58 billion, down 11.4% from RMB 101.12 billion in 2022[76]. - The comprehensive cost ratio rose to 100.7% in 2023, compared to 99.6% in 2022, indicating increased operational costs[76]. Customer Base and Services - The company served 232 million individual customers, providing a diverse range of products and convenient services[19]. - The number of individual customers reached 23,157,000 in 2023, an increase from 22,664,000 in 2022, representing a growth of 2.2%[24]. - The average number of contracts per individual customer was 2.95, with over 88.01 million individual customers holding multiple contracts across subsidiaries[84]. - The active user count for the "Ping An Good Car Owner" app surpassed 40.49 million in December 2023, with total registered users exceeding 200 million[58]. - The company achieved a self-service renewal amount of RMB 300.3 billion in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 13%[87]. Insurance Segment - Ping An's insurance segment achieved a premium income of 800 billion RMB, up 12% compared to the previous year[19]. - The total insurance service income for 2023 was RMB 223.600 billion, compared to RMB 232.194 billion in 2022, reflecting a decrease of approximately 3.0%[54]. - The new business value for 2023 is RMB 31,080 million, an increase of 7.8% compared to RMB 28,820 million in 2022[24]. - The new business profit margin for life insurance was 10.1%, down from 11.1% the previous year[42]. - The new business value from the bancassurance channel grew by 77.7% in 2023, indicating significant improvement in channel contribution[60]. Investment and Financial Strategy - The company is committed to sustainable finance, emphasizing green finance initiatives and support for the real economy[19]. - The total investment income increased by 23.0% to RMB 12.316 billion from RMB 10.014 billion in the previous year[76]. - The company's investment portfolio generated a return of 6.5%, contributing significantly to its overall financial performance[19]. - The company actively increased investments in high-quality alternative assets to diversify asset sources and income streams[122]. - The company has strengthened its investment research and product innovation capabilities, covering the entire investment management process[142]. Digital Transformation and Innovation - The company is focusing on digital transformation, aiming to enhance operational efficiency and customer experience through technology[19]. - The company is focusing on innovation in auto insurance products, including autonomous driving and mileage insurance[106]. - The company aims to leverage its comprehensive financial strategy to enhance customer value and operational efficiency, focusing on lower customer acquisition costs and improved service costs[87]. - The company has established a "Three Savings" value evaluation system to enhance product and service offerings, aiming to provide customers with a seamless financial experience[74]. Healthcare and Elderly Care Services - Ping An plans to expand its healthcare and elderly care services, aligning with national strategies for "Digital China" and "Healthy China"[19]. - The company expanded its home care services, covering 54 cities and serving over 80,000 customers by the end of 2023[46]. - The Ping An high-end elderly care project has been launched in four cities, with new projects like Shanghai Yinian City officially announced in February 2023[62]. Risk Management and Operational Efficiency - The company emphasizes risk management and has a robust risk preference system in place, focusing on cost-benefit matching[162]. - The company reported a decline in the average profit per customer due to macroeconomic challenges, with a focus on enhancing the comprehensive financial strategy to tap into existing customer value[89]. - The non-performing loan ratio increased to 1.06% from 1.05% year-over-year[150]. Market Position and Growth Strategy - The company has set a target to increase its market share in the insurance sector by 5% over the next three years[19]. - The company is actively pursuing mergers and acquisitions to strengthen its market position and diversify its service offerings[19]. - The company aims to strengthen its comprehensive financial services and enhance customer-oriented strategies for high-quality development[33].
中国平安(02318)聘任郭世邦出任总经理助理
智通财经· 2023-12-22 19:31
Core Viewpoint - China Ping An announced the appointment of Mr. Guo Shibang as Assistant General Manager, pending approval from the National Financial Regulatory Administration for his qualification [1] Group 1 - The board of directors of China Ping An made the decision to appoint Mr. Guo Shibang [1] - Mr. Guo Shibang will officially assume the role of Assistant General Manager after obtaining the necessary qualifications [1]