1、"倒奶杀牛" 乳业剧烈变动的根源，首先要从原奶价格的持续走低谈起。过去40多个月，原奶价格持续下滑，几乎波及整个产业链，从 上游牧场到下游乳企无一幸免。 原奶价格与生产成本严重倒挂，迫使大量牧场不得不倒掉牛奶、提前淘汰低产能奶牛。据农业农村部《2025年3月鲜活农产 品供需月报》数据显示，生鲜乳价格已降至每公斤3.08元，创下近15年来新低，远低于多数牧场的盈亏平衡线。 鲜奶、功能奶快速增长 过去一年，中国乳制品行业释放出一个明确信号：变革势在必行。 从需求端来看，两大乳业巨头的业绩已敲响警钟。国内龙头伊利在2024年迎来近20年来首次营收下滑，蒙牛也遭遇两位数 跌幅。 核心问题集中在液态奶业务，据统计，伊利和蒙牛在该品类的销售额分别减少了约100亿元——这一数字几乎相当于第二梯 队乳企一整年的营收。 与此同时，供应端同样承压。自2023年起，牧场端便频繁传出"倒奶杀牛"事件，直接原因在于原奶价格跌至15年来最低 点，严重影响牧场经营。 需求疲软、供给过剩，产业链两端的剧烈震荡，正倒逼整个乳业结构加速转型。 国金证券的统计进一步印证了这一趋势：当前原奶价格不仅连续40个月下滑，甚至已回落至2011年左右的 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - On May 7, 45 Hong Kong-listed companies conducted share buybacks, totaling 41.31 million shares and an aggregate amount of HKD 300 million [1]. Group 1: Buyback Details - China COSCO Shipping Holdings (中远海控) repurchased 7 million shares for HKD 86.09 million, with a highest price of HKD 12.360 and a lowest price of HKD 12.180, bringing its total buyback amount for the year to HKD 34.43 billion [1][2]. - China Hongqiao Group (中国宏桥) repurchased 6.11 million shares for HKD 85.18 million, with a highest price of HKD 14.100 and a lowest price of HKD 13.860, totaling HKD 22.07 billion in buybacks for the year [1][2]. - Times Electric (时代电气) repurchased 1.26 million shares for HKD 40.96 million, with a highest price of HKD 32.800 and a lowest price of HKD 32.150, accumulating HKD 11.20 billion in buybacks for the year [1][2]. Group 2: Buyback Rankings - The highest buyback amount on May 7 was from China COSCO Shipping Holdings at HKD 86.09 million, followed closely by China Hongqiao Group at HKD 85.18 million [1][2]. - The largest number of shares repurchased on May 7 was by Ying Group (嬴集团) with 7.90 million shares, followed by China COSCO Shipping Holdings and China Hongqiao Group with 7 million and 6.11 million shares, respectively [1][2]. Group 3: First-Time Buybacks - Notably, companies such as Yaoshi Bang (药师帮) and Fuzhikang Group (富智康集团) conducted their first buybacks of the year during this round [2].

证券研究报告·行业深度报告·食品饮料 食品饮料行业深度报告 大众品 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报总结：需 求筑底，细分突围 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2025 年 05 月 07 日 证券分析师 苏铖 执业证书：S0600524120010 such@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 周韵 执业证书：S0600524080009 zhouyun@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 邓洁 执业证书：S0600525030001 dengj@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 于思淼 执业证书：S0600123070030 yusm@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 2024/5/7 2024/9/5 2025/1/4 2025/5/5 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究 《食品综合 2024 年报及 2025 年一季 报总结：零食继续领跑，餐饮链有望 企稳》 2025-05-05 《2025Q1 基金食品饮料持仓分析：持 仓趋稳，白酒回升》 2025-04-23 内容目 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Mengniu Dairy has been actively repurchasing its shares, with a total of 423,000 shares repurchased this year, amounting to HKD 7,410.33 million [2][3] - On May 7, the company repurchased 300,000 shares at a price range of HKD 19.260 to HKD 19.660, totaling HKD 582.53 million, while the stock closed at HKD 19.260, down 3.60% for the day [2] - Since May 6, the company has conducted share buybacks for two consecutive days, repurchasing a total of 320,000 shares, with a cumulative buyback amount of HKD 622.33 million, during which the stock price fell by 4.42% [2] Group 2 - The detailed buyback history shows that the highest repurchase price this year was HKD 19.900 on May 6, and the lowest was HKD 14.980 on January 16 [3] - The buyback activity includes multiple transactions, with the largest single buyback of 800,000 shares on April 7, amounting to HKD 1,428.82 million [3] - The company has engaged in 18 buyback transactions this year, indicating a consistent strategy to support its stock price [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the consumer goods sector, particularly in dairy, beer, and snacks, while highlighting structural growth opportunities in emerging categories [4]. Core Insights - Traditional industries are experiencing slow growth with a concentration at the top, benefiting from cost reductions that enhance profitability. Key companies in dairy, beer, and condiments have seen improvements in net profit margins [4][12]. - The report emphasizes the potential for recovery in the dairy sector in 2025 due to supply adjustments and favorable policies, while also identifying growth opportunities in snacks and beverages driven by new products and channel innovations [4][12]. - Key recommendations include companies like Yili, Qingdao Beer, and Jin Zai Foods, with a focus on emerging players like Dongpeng Beverage and Yanjinpuzi [4][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Dairy Products - In 2024, the dairy sector faced a decline in demand, with key companies reporting a 7.88% drop in revenue. Yili's revenue decreased by 8.24% [13][14]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed a slight recovery, with Yili's revenue increasing by 1.35% due to growth in its milk powder segment [14]. - Profitability was impacted by asset impairments, with a 20% decline in net profit for key companies in 2024. However, improvements are expected in 2025 as companies adjust to lower inventory levels and stabilize milk prices [17][25]. 2. Condiments - The condiment sector saw a 6.63% increase in revenue in 2024, with leading companies like Haitian and Hengshun performing well. However, the first quarter of 2025 showed a slowdown with only a 0.2% revenue growth [44][47]. - Profit margins improved due to cost reductions, with the overall gross margin for key companies reaching 40.2% in the first quarter of 2025, up from 37.8% in 2024 [54][59]. 3. Beer - The beer industry faced challenges in 2024, with a 1.4% decline in revenue. However, the first quarter of 2025 showed a recovery with a 3.7% increase in revenue [62][63]. - The gross margin for the beer sector improved to 43.6% in the first quarter of 2025, benefiting from lower raw material costs and price increases [67][68]. 4. Meat Products - The meat products sector experienced a 2.64% decline in revenue in 2024, but net profit for key companies increased by 67% due to cost reductions [5][19]. - The outlook for 2025 remains cautious, with expectations of continued pressure on demand but potential cost benefits from lower pork prices [5][19]. 5. Snacks and Beverages - The snacks and beverages segments are highlighted for their structural growth potential, driven by innovation and channel transformations. Companies like Salted Fish and Youyou Foods are noted for their strong performance [4][12].

| 国泰君安国际(01788) | 50.00 万 | 52.01 万 | 2444.50 万 | 0.256% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 捷利交易宝(08017) | 104.00 万 | 46.53 万 | 1960.80 万 | 3.270% | | 蒙牛乳业(02319) | 2.00 万 | 39.80 万 | 2125.20 万 | 0.540% | | 威高股份(01066) | 6.00 万 | 34.58 万 | 526.24 万 | 1.164% | | 中国东方航空股份 | 13.20 万 | 32.00 万 | 3999.60 万 | 0.773% | | (00670) | | | | | | 力鸿检验(01586) | 5.60 万 | 14.58 万 | 1353.20 万 | 24.974% | | 天鸽互动(01980) | 20.00 万 | 11.60 万 | 9012.80 万 | 7.497% | | 昊海生物科技(06826) | 4700.00 | 11.49 万 | 270.38 万 | 9.135% | | 澳优( ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 24.5 HKD per share, indicating a potential upside of 21.6% from the current price of 20.15 HKD [5][6]. Core Insights - The dairy industry is experiencing a reduction in cow inventory, leading to a stabilization of milk prices expected within the year. The report anticipates that the supply-demand dynamics will improve, resulting in a more balanced market by 2026 [2][8]. - The management has guided for a low single-digit revenue growth in 2025, focusing on improving profitability through cost reduction and efficiency measures. The company aims for a stable operating profit margin (OPM) and a gradual improvement in operating profit margin by 30-50 basis points annually over the next three years [3][10]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed slow demand recovery, but a gradual improvement in revenue is expected in the second quarter due to favorable market conditions and lower comparative bases from the previous year [4][11]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.33, 1.46, and 1.60 HKD, respectively. The target price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 17 times for 2025 [6][14]. - Revenue is expected to decline by 10.09% in 2024 but recover slightly in 2025 with a growth of 1.39%. The gross margin is projected to stabilize around 39.7% in 2025 [7][10]. - The net profit margin is anticipated to improve significantly from 0.1% in 2024 to 5.8% in 2025, reflecting a recovery in profitability [7][10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating with a target price of 24.5 HKD per share, indicating a potential upside of 21.6% from the current price of 20.15 HKD [5][6]. Core Insights - The dairy industry is experiencing a reduction in cow inventory, leading to a stabilization of milk prices expected within the year. The domestic raw milk production is projected to decline by 2.8% year-on-year in 2024, marking the first decrease since 2018 [2][3][8]. - The management anticipates low single-digit revenue growth for 2025, focusing on improving profitability through cost reduction and efficiency measures. The operating profit margin (OPM) is expected to remain stable, with a target of improving the operating profit margin by 30-50 basis points annually over the next three years [10][11]. - The demand is slowly recovering, with expectations for revenue to improve gradually throughout 2025, particularly in the second quarter due to favorable market conditions and lower comparative bases from the previous year [4][11]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 1.33, 1.46, and 1.60 HKD respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 17 times for 2025 [6][14]. - Revenue is projected to be 89.91 billion RMB in 2025, with a slight increase from 88.68 billion RMB in 2024, and a growth rate of 1.39% [7][18]. - The gross profit margin is expected to stabilize around 39.7% for 2025, with net profit margin improving to 5.8% [7][18].

4. 内容与货品规划：内容策划上，通过定制专栏，每晚固定时段讲解推广产品、设置趣味问答环节。货品规划方面，针对不同产品系列进行合理铺货，如沙 漠有机、有机、梦幻盖、钻包+苗条装等。同时推出电商定制装和周边，如《向往的生活》桃花源定制包装、国民兄妹宣发定制装等，还设置BIG DAY专属 买赠活动。 今天分享的是：有机牛奶品牌大牌闪购整合营销案【乳品饮品】【电商大促】 报告共计：31页 本文围绕特仑苏大牌闪购整合方案展开，涵盖品牌概况、消费者洞察、营销背景、策略及执行等内容，旨在提升品牌影响力与产品销量。 1. 品牌与消费者分析：特仑苏作为中国高端牛奶领导品牌，开创品类并不断升级品质。消费主力为80、90后都市"年轻新贵"，多生活在一二线城市，经济独 立，追求品质生活，以中低消费水平人群为主，"她"经济对品牌消费有带动作用。 2. 营销背景与理念：特仑苏自2019年起冠名《向往的生活》，节目收视率、播放量、话题讨论度高，与品牌理念契合。基于此，特仑苏以"更好热爱 更好生 活"为传播主题，秉持"不负生活中的每一份热爱"理念开展营销。 3. 营销策略与执行：借助反emo文化与品牌"更好"理念的一致性，联合京东平台，开 ...

作者：Mamo 而在今天，绿色还有更深层的象征意义——环保与可持续生活方式的象征。随着绿色消费理念的普及， 人们对环境保护的关注持续升温。根据商道咨询发布的《2024 中国可持续消费报告》指出，超过 87% 的受访者表示已在日常生活中以不同形式与程度参与低碳消费。这意味着，绿色消费已成为一种普遍趋 势。 在这一趋势下，绿色不只是食品品牌们的一个营销口号，而必须落到细节之中，成为消费者看得见、摸 得着的真实行动。于是，食品品牌们也在以自己的方式，诠释"绿色"的意义。而要说到夏日时节，哪一 抹来自品牌的"绿色"令人印象深刻？ 这答案或许少不了国民雪糕品牌——蒙牛「绿色心情」。 品牌如其名。可持续理念，也被写进了绿色心情的品牌基因之中。去年夏天，绿色心情的公益足迹遍布 了全国27座城市，超过10万名消费者积极响应，累计回收乳制品包装超过20000千克，将"绿色"变成 了一场场真实的行动。 而在今年，刚刚迈入2025年的夏天，绿色心情又一次"整活儿"了。不仅打造了行业首个绿色生活嘉年 华，将可持续理念融入消费者的日常生活场景之中，更升级发起了"绿色合伙人"计划，并开展了"绿色 未来公开课"等系列活动，通过多方生态共建 ...