Core Insights - A transformative agricultural and animal husbandry revolution is underway in Hohhot, driven by a strategy focused on "large industries and large parks" [1] - The green agricultural and livestock product processing industry cluster is expanding, with seven leading industries and their respective supply chains being established [1] Industry Development - The Biquqi Town's Youran Animal Husbandry has seen the establishment of 110 large-scale enterprises, with 28 new additions in 2024, representing 29.8% of the city's total in six major industrial clusters [3] - The "Youan Animal Husbandry Saikexing Research Institute" is utilizing genomic data to enhance dairy cattle breeding, marking a significant technological advancement in China's dairy industry [3][4] Technological Advancements - The "Breeding No. 1 Chip" has been developed, which integrates advanced sequencing and high-throughput gene detection technologies, enabling precise selection of high-quality local dairy cattle [3][4] - The chip has been successfully applied to over 300 dairy cattle, achieving an accuracy level that meets international standards [4] Economic Impact - The advancements in breeding technology are expected to significantly improve the genetic quality of cattle, extend their productive lifespan, and promote cost reduction and green transformation in farms [5] - The full industrial chain development is becoming crucial for enhancing the competitiveness of the agricultural and livestock sectors [6] Strategic Initiatives - The dairy industry is identified as the leading industry in Hohhot, with a focus on upgrading the industry as a core engine of transformation [8] - The local government is pursuing three key development directions: establishing green agricultural product processing parks, creating digital industry clusters, and building technology-driven clusters to address critical challenges in agriculture [8] Future Outlook - The integration of technology in farming practices, such as smart weather management for alfalfa cultivation, is enhancing efficiency and resource management [6] - The overall vision for Hohhot's modern agricultural and livestock industry is becoming clearer, characterized by technological empowerment, ecological friendliness, and a complete supply chain [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the integration of ecological sustainability and industrial development in the dairy industry, particularly through the practices of Mengniu Group, which has been a leader in promoting the "Two Mountains" concept over the past 20 years [1][14]. Group 1: Ecological Initiatives - Mengniu has transformed the Ulan Buh Desert into a green oasis by planting 98 million sand plants and greening over 220 square kilometers since 2009 [2]. - The company combines ecological restoration with industrial development, creating an organic milk industry chain that includes organic planting, breeding, and processing [4]. - Mengniu promotes ecological pasture construction nationwide, enhancing energy efficiency and implementing various ecological projects to establish green low-carbon pastures [6]. Group 2: Green Manufacturing - Mengniu's Wuhan factory features a wastewater treatment center that processes 5,000 tons daily, saving 70,000 tons of water annually and utilizing natural light and clean energy [8]. - The Ningxia factory is recognized as the world's first "lighthouse factory" for liquid milk, achieving a 43% reduction in energy consumption compared to traditional factories [10]. - Mengniu has established 37 national-level green factories across China, contributing to the country's dual carbon commitment through intelligent manufacturing and green innovations [10]. Group 3: Sustainable Supply Chain - Mengniu has initiated the procurement of "zero deforestation" soybeans, marking a significant step in sustainable sourcing [12]. - The company has implemented a forest protection policy to manage risks associated with wood, soybean, and palm oil products, aiming for zero deforestation by 2030 [12]. - Mengniu promotes a responsible industrial ecosystem by collaborating with partners to implement the "Two Mountains" concept throughout its supply chain [12]. Group 4: Global Outreach - Mengniu leverages its partnerships in global events like the Olympics to promote the "Two Mountains" concept and showcase China's achievements in ecological restoration [14]. - The company has launched various public welfare projects, such as the "Oasis Plan" and "Blue Planet," to advocate for sustainable development on an international stage [14]. - As the "national team" in the dairy industry, Mengniu aims to continue its commitment to ecological harmony and sustainable practices in the coming years [14].

Core Insights - The Chinese dairy industry is undergoing a significant strategic transformation, shifting from a "scale expansion" model reliant on market penetration and capacity expansion to a "value enhancement" model focused on technological innovation, product differentiation, and value chain extension [1] - The B-end dairy market is emerging as a new growth point, attracting major players like Mengniu and Yili, as competition in the C-end market becomes increasingly saturated [1][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The B-end dairy market has shown robust growth, with its total scale expanding to a trillion-level market, driven by rising demand from industries like coffee, baking, and tea [4][7] - The coffee market alone is projected to see a sales volume of 3.3 billion cups in 2023, with a growth rate of 37.5%, expected to reach 5 billion cups by 2025 [4][7] - The baking market is also thriving, with a retail market size of 611.07 billion yuan in 2024, anticipated to grow to 859.56 billion yuan by 2029, providing substantial application space for dairy products [7] Group 2: Domestic Market Trends - The trend of domestic substitution in the B-end dairy market is accelerating, with domestic brands gradually breaking the dominance of international brands in high-end products like cream and cheese [8][10] - Currently, 70% to 80% of the B-end market share is still held by imported brands, but domestic companies are gaining ground due to shorter supply chains and better responsiveness to local market needs [10][12] - Anti-dumping policies have created a favorable environment for domestic companies, allowing them to compete more effectively against foreign brands [10][12] Group 3: Competitive Strategies - Major dairy companies are rapidly expanding their B-end market presence through partnerships with food service companies and tailored product offerings [15][21] - Mengniu has launched a professional catering brand, focusing on high-quality dairy ingredients for various sectors, while Yili has established an innovation center to cater to diverse B-end customer needs [15][17] - Companies like Junlebao are focusing on high-value deep processing areas, collaborating with leading tea brands to explore B-end business opportunities [19][21] Group 4: Challenges and Considerations - The B-end market, while promising, presents unique competitive challenges compared to the C-end market, where product specialization and customization capabilities are critical [23][24] - Efficient supply chain management is vital for B-end clients, as any delays can significantly impact operations and brand reputation [24][26] - Barriers to entry, such as technological, scale, and brand reputation, make it difficult for new entrants to compete effectively in the B-end market [26][27]

生态牧场：敢叫沙漠换新颜 乌兰布和，中国第八大沙漠。 20年前，"绿水青山就是金山银山"理念的提出，科学阐述了经济产业发展和生态环境保护的重要关系， 为乳业实现"产业生态化和生态产业化"发展提供了根本遵循。 20年来，作为乳业国家队和行业龙头企业，蒙牛集团争当践行"两山"理念的排头兵，在"从牧场到餐 桌"的全产业链上，开展一场久久为功的绿色行动, 于"山水林田湖草沙"间，绘就出生态美、产业兴、百 姓富的美丽画卷。 曾经，这里漫天黄沙，浩浩荡荡。当地牧民说，"乌兰布和"在蒙语里的意思是"红色的公牛"，这里连草 都活不了，何况是牛？ 自2009年开始，蒙牛携手多方力量向这头狂野难驯的公牛发起挑战，在漫长的坚守与耕耘中，累计种植 9800万棵沙生植物，绿化沙漠面积超 220 平方公里，终于将这片令人生畏的"生命禁区"改造成为蕴含无 限生机的"沙漠绿洲"。 更具开创意义的是，在这片绿洲之上，蒙牛将生态修复与产业发展有机结合，以"山水林田湖草沙"的独 特自然禀赋，全面深化"种养加、草牧奶"协同发展，打造出一条覆盖有机种植、有机养殖、有机加工在 内的牛奶有机产业链。如今，这里35万亩优良草场郁郁葱葱，34座牧场拔地而起， ...

更深层的原因在于消费逻辑的重构。经济下行周期中，75%的消费者会反复比价，"质价比"取代"高端标签"成为决策核心。特仑苏赖以生存的"高 价=高品质"认知链条被打破，消费者开始追问：4.0克蛋白与3.3克蛋白的差异，是否真的值两倍价差？当高端的光环褪去，特仑苏与普通牛奶的本 质区别变得模糊，降价便成了无奈的选择。 多元化困局与液态奶依赖症 特仑苏的挣扎背后，是蒙牛整个战略体系的失衡。翻阅2024年财报，一组数据触目惊心：全年营收886.75亿元，同比下降10.09%；归母净利润仅 1.05亿元，同比暴跌97.83%；五大业务板块全面下滑，其中占比82.4%的液态奶业务收入730.66亿元，同比下滑10.97%。业绩雪崩的根源，在于蒙 牛患上了严重的"液态奶依赖症"。 来源：九州商业观察 当"不是所有牛奶都叫特仑苏"的广告语逐渐失去魔力，蒙牛的高端化神话正在消费市场的寒意中褪色。2025年以来，这个曾开创中国乳业高端时 代的标志性品牌，接连上演降价戏码——经典单品调低经销商进货价，沙漠·有机奶终端售价直降16%，线上线下促销混战导致价格体系崩坏。特 仑苏的"降价风波"，不仅是一个单品的市场策略调整，更折射出蒙牛这 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese dairy market, dominated by Yili and Mengniu, is facing a downturn in revenue and profit after years of growth, primarily due to overcapacity and changing consumer preferences [4][5][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Yili and Mengniu together hold over 50% of the Chinese dairy market share, with liquid milk being the main revenue driver, accounting for over 80% of their income [4]. - The introduction of sterilization packaging technology in 1997 significantly extended the shelf life of milk, allowing these companies to expand nationally [4]. - The past decade saw continuous growth in the dairy market, but a shift occurred last year with both leading companies experiencing revenue and profit declines [4][5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Issues - The relaxation of the two-child policy in 2016 and the COVID-19 pandemic increased health awareness, boosting dairy consumption, but also led to overestimation of future demand and subsequent capacity expansions by producers [5]. - The supply of raw milk has outpaced consumer demand since 2018, resulting in falling prices that have affected profitability for dairy farms [5][6]. - In 2023, the average daily spray-drying of fresh milk by leading dairy companies reached 20,000 tons, indicating a significant surplus [5]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior Changes - Consumer preferences have shifted towards alternatives like tea, coffee, and snacks, leading to a 3% year-on-year decline in dairy consumption [6]. - The retail price of milk has dropped over 5% since the beginning of 2023, prompting companies to increase promotional efforts, which has further strained profit margins [6][7]. Group 4: Strategic Responses - In response to overcapacity, many farms are reducing herd sizes and eliminating less productive cows, with a projected decrease of about 200,000 dairy cows this year [7]. - Yili and Mengniu are exploring partnerships with coffee and tea brands to create customized dairy products, aiming to adapt to changing consumer tastes [9]. - The B2B market for dairy products is estimated to be worth hundreds of billions, but a significant portion is still dominated by imported brands, indicating potential growth opportunities for local companies [9].

国信证券则表示，看好2025年肉牛大周期反转，肉价上涨预计持续到2027年；2025年下半年国内原奶供 需格局或改善，价格有望回暖。对于奶牛养殖标的，原奶行情改善利好主业盈利修复，同时肉牛大周期 上行有望明显增厚其奶牛淘汰和犊牛外销收益，肉奶共振背景下具备较高业绩修复弹性，推荐优然牧 业、现代牧业、中国圣牧。 消息面上，7月28日，《育儿补贴制度实施方案》出台，方案为2025年1月1日起，对符合法律法规规定 生育的3周岁以下婴幼儿发放每孩每年3600元的补贴，至其年满3周岁。爱建证券表示，预计政策将惠及 2000多万婴幼儿家庭，有望直接拉动乳制品特别是婴幼儿奶粉消费。 乳业股延续近期强势表现，截至发稿，中国圣牧(01432)涨9.09%，报0.48港元；优然牧业(09858)涨 3.53%，报4.4港元；蒙牛乳业(02319)涨1.46%，报16.67港元；澳优(01717)涨1.19%，报2.55港元。 ...

Group 1 - Dairy stocks continue to show strong performance, with China Shengmu (01432) up 9.09% to HKD 0.48, Yurun Dairy (09858) up 3.53% to HKD 4.4, Mengniu Dairy (02319) up 1.46% to HKD 16.67, and Ausnutria (01717) up 1.19% to HKD 2.55 [1] - The implementation plan for the childcare subsidy system was released on July 28, which will provide a subsidy of HKD 3,600 per child per year for children under three years old starting from January 1, 2025, benefiting over 20 million families [1] - The policy is expected to directly boost the consumption of dairy products, particularly infant formula [1] Group 2 - Guosen Securities is optimistic about the reversal of the beef cycle in 2025, predicting that meat prices will continue to rise until 2027 [1] - The domestic raw milk supply and demand situation is expected to improve in the second half of 2025, leading to a potential price recovery [1] - The improvement in raw milk prices is favorable for the profitability of dairy farming, and the upward trend in the beef cycle is expected to significantly enhance the income from culling dairy cows and selling calves, recommending Yurun Dairy, Modern Dairy, and China Shengmu for their high performance recovery potential [1]

近日，山东汉鑫科技股份有限公司与内蒙古蒙牛乳业（集团）股份有限公司正式达成合作，双方将共同 推进"蒙牛常温灌装机封合数据分析平台"升级项目。 该项目不仅是双方在智能制造领域的关键实践，更是蒙牛深化"消费者第一第一第一"理念、坚守"质量 是最大的正直"承诺的重要体现。 该平台将使用和部署汉鑫科技最新自主研发的物联网技术和AI算法引擎，进而从设备实时画像、智能 预警、故障预测三个主要方面重塑质量管理体系。从根本上守护每一包产品的完美密封与安全，进而助 力蒙牛加速推进"数智化FIRST"战略进程。 蒙牛作为乳业龙头，始终以"数智化"驱动产业升级。汉鑫科技凭借其在"AI+数字工厂"领域的深厚积 累，将通过"数据采集-算法分析-决策优化"全链路技术输出，助力蒙牛实现降本增效与质量管控的双重 突破。 此次合作不仅将提升蒙牛灌装生产线的自动化与智能化水平，更将为行业提供可复制的数字化转型范 本。这场传统乳业与工业智能的跨界融合，将助推中国乳品制造加速向"智能制造"时代迈进。 在乳品高速灌装过程中，包装封合的质量直接决定了产品的密封性和安全性，也直接关系到消费者的健 康体验。本次合作聚焦核心灌装设备，汉鑫科技将依托领先的人工 ...

Summary of Livestock Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The livestock industry is experiencing a cyclical opportunity due to the resonance between beef and milk markets, with domestic beef supply expected to remain tight for the next two to three years, leading to continuous price increases [1][2][7]. Key Points Beef Market Dynamics - Domestic beef supply is in a tight state, primarily due to tightened import policies and a reduction in livestock numbers, with a projected price increase of approximately 35% from current levels to reach previous highs [1][3][9]. - The number of domestic beef cattle has decreased to approximately 99.92 million heads by the end of Q2 2025, influenced by ongoing losses among farmers [3][8]. - The beef price increase is supported by a 10% reduction in imports during the first half of the year, which has significantly impacted prices [3]. Milk Market Dynamics - The raw milk cycle is at the tail end of a downward trend, with prices having dropped by about 30% from the previous peak in late 2021, stabilizing around 3 RMB per kilogram in the first half of 2025 [10][12]. - The supply of raw milk is expected to decline year-on-year, with a 2.8% decrease in production noted, marking the end of six consecutive years of growth [12]. Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities are concentrated in the beef cycle and the raw milk cycle, with significant resonance effects expected as both markets evolve [2][5][7]. - Hong Kong-listed livestock companies are seen as advantageous investment targets due to their exposure to both rising beef prices and the impending turning point in the raw milk cycle [5]. Challenges for Small and Medium-sized Farms - Small and medium-sized farms face multiple challenges, including high cash costs, reduced financial support, and rising feed prices, which exacerbate operational pressures [13]. - The majority of beef producers are small-scale, with over 90% of farms having fewer than 10 heads, making them highly sensitive to price fluctuations [8]. Future Projections - The expectation is for continued tight supply in the domestic beef market, which will exacerbate supply-demand imbalances and drive prices higher over the next two to three years [7]. - The raw milk cycle is anticipated to reach a turning point soon, further enhancing investment opportunities in the sector [7]. Deep Processing and Product Development - The Chinese dairy industry has historically focused on liquid milk, but there is a growing trend towards deep processing, with major dairy companies beginning to invest in this area [4][15][16]. - The current surplus of raw milk presents a window for developing deep processing capabilities, which could reduce reliance on imports and enhance domestic production efficiency [15][16]. Company Valuations - Current valuations for Hong Kong-listed livestock companies show potential for significant upside, with price-to-book (PB) ratios around 1.3 for YouRan and 1 for Modern, compared to previous peaks of 2-2.5 [4][18]. - The optimistic profit expectations for YouRan suggest a potential market capitalization of around 20 billion RMB based on peak net profit margins [18]. Recommended Companies - Key recommended companies include YouRan, ShengMu, and TianRun, each with unique strengths and market positions, making them suitable investment targets in the current market environment [5][19][20].