近日，上海犇百年私募基金管理有限公司正式成立，天眼查股权穿透显示，该公司由北京泰擎企业管 理咨询合伙企业(有限合伙)、内蒙古蒙牛乳业(集团)股份有限公司共同持股，上述公司经营范围包含： 私募股权投资基金管理、创业投资基金管理服务。 根据证券时报记者了解，这是蒙牛创投在上海新设立的管理公司，有业内人士分析，新设管理公司以往对 于机构而言更多是为了追求税收优惠，现在情况有所不同，很多地方政府有返投要求，为了募资，机构会 选择重新注册管理公司。蒙牛创投此举或是深化产业链投资、拓展多元化布局、提升资本运作能力的重要 举措。 公开资料显示，内蒙古蒙牛乳业集团股份有限公司（简称：蒙牛、蒙牛乳业），是央企控股上市公司，成 立于1999年。旗下拥有特仑苏、纯甄、冠益乳、优益C、每日鲜语等众多品牌。蒙牛在中国建立了41座生 产基地，在新西兰、印度尼西亚、澳大利亚建有海外生产基地，全球工厂总数达68座。蒙牛的主要业务为 乳制品的生产、加工、销售以及畜牧饲养等。 近日，蒙牛乳业发布盈利预警公告，预计截至2024年12月31日止年度将实现本公司拥有人应占利润约0.5 亿元至2.5亿元，而2023年同期为48.09亿元。由于原奶供需矛 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation of total returns exceeding the relevant industry over the next 12 months [6][13]. Core Insights - The company's main business performance remains robust, with a significant profit expectation increase in the second half of the year after excluding impairment losses [2][7]. - The report highlights that despite a decline in total revenue year-on-year due to market pressures, the company benefits from a decrease in raw milk prices, leading to improved gross and operating profit margins [7]. - The company anticipates a profit of RMB 0.5-2.5 billion for 2024, primarily due to impairment provisions related to brand acquisitions, with specific expected impairments of RMB 3.8-4 billion for Bellamy and RMB 0.79-0.9 billion affecting the profit statement [7]. - The company assures that dividend declarations will not be impacted by one-time factors, maintaining a commitment to increase the payout ratio to 50% over the next two years [7]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 92,593 million in 2022, RMB 98,624 million in 2023, with an expected decline to RMB 87,504 million in 2024, followed by a recovery to RMB 91,904 million in 2025 and RMB 96,934 million in 2026 [10]. - Net profit is projected to drop significantly to RMB 244 million in 2024, recovering to RMB 5,078 million in 2025 and RMB 5,853 million in 2026 [10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be RMB 1.34 in 2022, declining to RMB 1.22 in 2023, and then dropping to RMB 0.06 in 2024, before rebounding to RMB 1.29 in 2025 and RMB 1.48 in 2026 [10]. - The report indicates a target price adjustment to HKD 20.94, up from HKD 16.04, based on a 15x price-to-earnings ratio for 2025 [7][8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that despite the impact of impairment provisions on overall profits for 2024, the main business performance of Mengniu Dairy remains robust, with significant profit expectations for the second half of the year after excluding impairments [1] - Mengniu Dairy's profit warning suggests an expected profit of RMB 0.5 billion to 2.5 billion for 2024, representing a year-on-year decline of 94.8% to 99% compared to RMB 48.1 billion in 2023, primarily due to impairment provisions related to brand acquisitions [1] - The company anticipates a goodwill and intangible asset impairment of RMB 3.8 billion to 4 billion due to poor operational and financial performance of Bellamy, along with a further impact of RMB 790 million to 900 million from joint venture Modern Dairy's impairment [1] Group 2 - Excluding the aforementioned impairments, Mengniu Dairy's main business is expected to yield a profit of RMB 46.4 billion to 51.5 billion for 2024, aligning with market consensus expectations, with a notable improvement in net profit for the second half projected at RMB 21.9 billion to 27 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.7% to 37.4% [1] - In the context of a pressured overall dairy market, Mengniu Dairy has achieved market share gains in niche segments such as premium milk and low-temperature yogurt, benefiting from stabilized raw milk prices and a return to rational market competition [2] - The target price for Mengniu Dairy has been raised to HKD 20.94 from HKD 16.04, based on a 15 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2025, while maintaining a "buy" rating [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Mengniu Dairy (02319.HK) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Mengniu Dairy's impairment provisions have cleared historical burdens, setting a solid foundation for profit growth in 2025. The company anticipates a gradual improvement in the dairy industry supply-demand balance, which is expected to enhance the operational conditions of upstream farms [7][8] - Despite a challenging 2024, the company's main operations show resilience, with expected improvements in gross and operating profit margins due to declining raw milk prices and various efficiency enhancement measures [7] - The report emphasizes the company's strong cash flow and commitment to shareholder returns, indicating that the anticipated impairments are non-cash accounting items. The company aims to maximize shareholder returns through dividend policies that exclude these impairments [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 886.82 billion, 936.85 billion, and 96.714 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of -10.08%, +5.64%, and +3.23% [7] - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 is 110.14 million, 4.83 billion, and 5.42 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of -97.71%, +4289%, and +12% respectively [7] - The report projects a significant increase in earnings per share (EPS) from 0.03 RMB in 2024 to 1.38 RMB in 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 575.24, 13.11, and 11.68 [1][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Mengniu Dairy (02319.HK) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Mengniu Dairy's impairment provisions have cleared historical burdens, setting a solid foundation for profit growth in 2025. The company is expected to benefit from improved operating conditions as the supply-demand imbalance in the raw milk market gradually eases [7] - The main business shows strong resilience, with operating profit margins expected to improve due to declining raw milk prices and various efficiency enhancement measures [7] - The company emphasizes stable cash flow and shareholder returns, planning to declare dividends while excluding the impact of impairment provisions [7] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 886.82 billion, 936.85 billion, and 96.714 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of -10.08%, +5.64%, and +3.23% [7] - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company has been revised to 110.14 million, 4.83 billion, and 5.42 billion RMB for 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth rates of -97.71%, +4288.93%, and +12% [7] - The report indicates a significant increase in the price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for 2024 to 575.24, with subsequent years at 13.11 and 11.68 [7] Market Data - The closing price of Mengniu Dairy is reported at HKD 17.26, with a market capitalization of approximately 67.62 billion HKD [5] - The company has a price-to-book ratio of 1.52 and a debt-to-asset ratio of 56.21% [6] Cash Flow and Profitability - The operating cash flow for 2024 is projected to be 3.12 billion RMB, with a stable cash flow outlook despite the anticipated impairments [8] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve to 37.99% in 2024, with net profit margin projected at 0.12% [8]

第五次创业，吾岛创始人王炜建想让希腊酸奶不再是奢侈品。 文丨朱丽琨 编辑丨钱杨 黄俊杰 邯郸人王炜建对风险的判断和一般人不一样。他是个连续创业者，至少五次从 0 到 1，常说的话是 "我喜 欢给自己留个 Plan B"，但却在什么都还不确定的情况下，投入 2.4 亿元建了巨大的乳业工厂。 他还是一位滑翔伞专业运动员，参加过亚洲沙滩运动会、世锦赛，保持了几年中国最好个人成绩。那是他 连续创业生涯中间突然岔出去的几年，每天睁眼就背着 20 多公斤的伞包，在澳洲、欧洲、南美洲的山上 训练、比赛。 王炜建身型瘦削、身量高，言语温和，总是带着一点笑意。自然的卷发，剪裁修身的大衣、锃亮的皮靴， 让他看起来像个演奏家或者马术运动员。滑翔伞运动员时期的老照片上他更年轻，不修边幅的长发、皮肤 晒得黝黑，像一个流浪摇滚乐手。 早年，他给人上门装过有线电视，高中辍学之后，从报纸上找到一批有投广告需求的公司，雇了一群大学 生拦出租车，在后玻璃上打广告。 靠着这原始积累，他建起牛奶工厂，起名康诺，意思是 "健康的承诺"。康诺是国内最早一批做送奶上门的 公司，邯郸本地许多住户门口都钉着康诺的奶箱。 "他是中国 O2O 的鼻祖。" 壹叁资 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has a strong foundation built over 20 years, with a new strategic plan aimed at achieving a "new Mengniu" under the leadership of the new president [1] - The company is well-positioned in the dairy industry with a solid supply chain, marketing strategies, and a focus on product innovation [1] - Short-term benefits are expected from the liquid milk segment, while long-term growth will focus on structural upgrades and international expansion [1] Summary by Sections 1. Company Development - Established in 1999 and listed in 2004, the company has undergone several management changes and strategic evolutions, with a focus on traditional strengths and international innovation [1][26] - The company has diversified its product offerings across various categories, including liquid milk, ice cream, milk powder, and cheese [1][26] 2. Competitive Position - The company has strengthened its control over high-quality milk sources through strategic partnerships and acquisitions, maintaining a significant market share in fresh milk [1][39] - Marketing efforts have been enhanced through a dual-brand strategy, leading to a strong brand presence in the industry [1] 3. Liquid Milk Growth - The company is expected to benefit from an upward cycle in the dairy price and a potential turning point in profitability due to improved supply-demand dynamics [1] - Long-term focus includes upgrading the product structure, particularly in high-end milk products and yogurt [1] 4. Strategic Layout and International Expansion - The company is expanding into cheese and ice cream markets, with significant growth potential in Southeast Asia through acquisitions [1][39] - The international strategy is supported by strong partnerships and acquisitions that enhance the company's competitive edge [1] 5. Shareholder Returns - The company plans to increase its dividend payout and share buyback programs, enhancing shareholder returns [1] - The report anticipates improved cash flow and operational efficiency, leading to a sustainable increase in shareholder value [1] 6. Earnings Forecast and Investment Advice - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are set at 927.4 billion, 955.4 billion, and 980.6 billion respectively, with corresponding net profit estimates of 43 billion, 48.4 billion, and 53.2 billion [1] - The company is expected to maintain a lower P/E ratio compared to peers, reinforcing the "Buy" rating [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has a strong foundation built over 20 years, with a new strategic plan aimed at achieving a "new Mengniu" under the leadership of the new CEO [1] - The company is positioned as a leader in the dairy industry, with a solid supply chain and marketing strategy that enhances its competitive edge [1] - Short-term benefits are expected from the liquid milk segment, while long-term focus is on structural upgrades and diversification into multiple product categories [1] Summary by Sections 1. Company Development - Established in 1999 and listed in 2004, the company has undergone five management changes, with the latest CEO taking office in March 2024 [1][26] - The company aims to leverage its traditional strengths while expanding internationally and innovating [1] 2. Competitive Position - The company has strengthened its control over high-quality milk sources through strategic partnerships and acquisitions, maintaining a significant market share in fresh milk [1] - The marketing strategy includes a dual-brand framework that enhances brand power and market presence [1] 3. Liquid Milk Growth - Short-term performance is expected to improve as the industry moves towards supply-demand balance by 2025, with the company poised to benefit from this shift [1] - Long-term growth is anticipated through upgrades in high-end products and expansion in low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt segments [1] 4. Diversification and Internationalization - The company is expanding into cheese and ice cream markets, with significant potential in Southeast Asia through recent acquisitions [1] - The strategic focus on multiple product categories is expected to enhance overall growth and market presence [1] 5. Shareholder Returns - The company plans to increase its dividend payout and has initiated a share buyback program, aiming to enhance shareholder returns [1] - The report forecasts a steady improvement in cash flow and operational efficiency, supporting the anticipated increase in dividends [1] 6. Earnings Forecast and Investment Advice - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are set at 927.4 billion, 955.4 billion, and 980.6 billion respectively, with corresponding net profit estimates of 43 billion, 48.4 billion, and 53.2 billion [1] - The company is expected to maintain a lower P/E ratio compared to peers, reinforcing the "Buy" rating [1]

Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2024 decreased by 12.6% year-on-year to RMB44,670.5 million due to an imbalance between supply and demand in the dairy industry and lower-than-expected consumer demand[7] - Gross profit margin increased by 1.9 percentage points year-on-year to 40.3% in the first half of 2024[7] - Operating profit decreased by 4.8% year-on-year to RMB3,119.3 million in the first half of 2024[7] - Profit attributable to owners of the company declined by 19.0% year-on-year to RMB2,445.8 million in the first half of 2024[7] - Net cash flow from operating activities dropped by 44.4% year-on-year to RMB1,919.9 million in the first half of 2024[7] - Basic earnings per share decreased by 18.6% year-on-year to RMB0.623 in the first half of 2024[7] - Diluted earnings per share decreased by 18.4% year-on-year to RMB0.622 in the first half of 2024[7] - Operating profit reached RMB3,119.3 million, with the operating profit margin increasing by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year to 7.0%[8] - Profit attributable to equity shareholders amounted to RMB2,445.8 million[8] - Revenue for the first half of 2024 was RMB44,670.5 million, a year-on-year decrease of 12.6%, with gross profit margin increasing by 1.9 percentage points to 40.3%[8] - Revenue decreased by 12.6% year-on-year to RMB44,670.5 million for the six months ended 30 June 2024 (2023: RMB51,118.5 million)[70] - Gross profit decreased to RMB17,984.7 million, with gross profit margin increasing by 1.9 percentage points to 40.3% due to lower raw milk prices[72] - Selling and distribution expenses decreased by 8.8% to RMB12,680.5 million, accounting for 28.4% of revenue[73] - Administrative expenses decreased by 11.1% to RMB1,941.0 million, maintaining a 4.3% share of revenue[73] - Operating profit decreased by 4.8% to RMB3,119.3 million, with operating profit margin increasing by 0.6 percentage points to 7.0%[74] - EBITDA decreased by 7.5% to RMB4,790.8 million, with EBITDA margin increasing by 0.6 percentage points to 10.7%[75] - Profit attributable to owners of the company decreased by 19.0% to RMB2,445.8 million, with basic earnings per share down 18.6% to RMB0.623[77] - Capital expenditure decreased by 10.3% to RMB1,692.9 million, with RMB1,583.4 million spent on production facilities and related investments[81] - Net cash inflow from operating activities decreased by 44.4% to RMB1,919.9 million, primarily due to lower net profit and increased raw milk powder inventories[82] - Outstanding interest-bearing bank and other borrowings increased to RMB41,562.3 million, with RMB17,755.1 million repayable within one year[83] - Net borrowings of the Group as of 30 June 2024 were RMB23,125.5 million, a decrease from RMB24,967.0 million at the end of 2023[84] - The Group's debt-to-equity ratio increased to 81.3% as of 30 June 2024, up from 73.9% at the end of 2023[84] - Finance costs of the Group were RMB884.3 million, representing 2.0% of revenue, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year[85] - Liquid milk revenue amounted to RMB36,261.5 million, accounting for 81.2% of Mengniu's total revenue[86] - Revenue from the ice cream business amounted to RMB3,371.4 million, accounting for 7.5% of Mengniu's total revenue[99] - Revenue from the milk formula business amounted to RMB1,635.3 million, accounting for 3.7% of Mengniu's total revenue[103] - Revenue from the cheese business amounted to RMB2,114.3 million, accounting for 4.7% of Mengniu's total revenue[109] - Mengniu had a total annual production capacity of 13.90 million tons as of 30 June 2024[114] Product Innovation and Market Expansion - The company launched new products like lactose-free milk and various flavored milk tea drinks to meet diverse consumer needs[19][20] - Mengniu's chilled yogurt upgraded to 100% raw milk formula, expanding into zero-sucrose and tasty fruit bits segments, with YO!FINE DIARY Yogurt achieving significant sales growth in 2024[26] - Shiny Meadow, Mengniu's high-end fresh milk brand, saw double-digit growth in 2024 despite market challenges[29] - Xiaoxianyu, a sub-brand targeting young consumers, achieved double-digit sales growth through partnerships with the Ta Foundation[31] - Mengniu's fresh milk business secured the largest market share in e-commerce and fresh food e-commerce through collaborations with Tmall, JD.com, and Douyin[32] - Mengniu's milk powder business returned to profitability in H1 2024 by restructuring its model and focusing on precise nutritional benefits[33] - Reeborne, Mengniu's infant formula brand, collaborated with Jiangnan University and Sun Yat-Sen University to release the world's first validated MLCT results[34] - Bellamy's achieved strong year-on-year sales growth in the Southeast Asian market in H1 2024, introducing two new products in the region[35] - Ruiburun brand achieved global first MLCT empirical results in collaboration with Jiangnan University and Sun Yat-sen University, enhancing infant formula product strength with patented MLCT+ new OPO formula[36] - Bellamy's Southeast Asia sales showed strong year-on-year growth in the first half of 2024, maintaining its position as the top organic milk powder brand in cross-border e-commerce[36] - Yourui brand released a white paper on health status and nutrition solutions for middle-aged and elderly adults, focusing on bone, joint, and muscle health products[37][38] - Suibian brand expanded its product lineup with cup and cone offerings and launched the Suibian Gold Label series to meet young consumers' demand for high-quality, multi-flavor products[41] - Ice+ brand collaborated with NBA to launch an electrolyte drink sorbet and with Brave the World Super X to introduce beer ice cream, targeting younger consumers[41] - AICE achieved top market share in Indonesia and second in the Philippines for snacking ice cream, with strong sales revenue growth and improved profit margins[43] - Milkground launched a new line of ready-to-eat nutritional products for adults in May 2024, transitioning from a focus on children's cheese to products for all age groups[45] - Milkground's market share remains the top in the cheese segment, with its leading advantage continuously expanding[46] - Milkground launched new adult ready-to-eat nutritious cheese products in May 2024, marking a brand upgrade from children's cheese to all-age cheese[46] - Milkground introduced new products such as Cheese Granules, upgraded Mousse Cup Cheese, bite-sized Cheese, and Fresh Hand-torn Cheese, enriching its product lineup[47] - Milkground completed a cash acquisition of 100% equity in Inner Mongolia Mengniu Cheese Co., Ltd. in June 2024, aiming to strengthen its leadership in the cheese market[49] - Mengniu launched a new lactose-free milk product in 2024 to meet the needs of lactose-intolerant consumers[89] - Just Yoghurt's zero additive original taste yogurt has passed EU standard certification, emphasizing Mengniu's commitment to quality[90] - Fruit Milk Drink introduced a new series of milk tea beverages in 2024, targeting young Generation-Z consumers with zero added milk powder and zero trans fats[92] - Mengniu's chilled yogurt products have been upgraded to a 100% raw milk formula, with expansion into zero-sucrose and fruit grain segments[94] - Yoyi C 100ml Smooth Drinks, featuring a formula of 5 strains of complex probiotics, has been highly acclaimed since its launch[94] - Shiny Meadow launched Dual Protein Milk, enriched with six almonds per 350ml serving[97] - Xiaoxianyu, a sub-brand of Shiny Meadow, focused on light-calorie fresh milk, rapidly expanding its reach among young consumers[97] - Mengniu Modern Meadow fresh milk launched seasonal products like Mood for Green Raw Milk Green Shasha and Functional Flavor 5 Black Milk[97] - Suibian introduced the Gold Label 72% series, targeting high-quality chocolate ice cream demand among young consumers[100] - Reeborne upgraded its core products to A2 β-casein milk sources in 2024[104] - Milkground launched new products such as flower-flavour cheese sticks and light-fat mozzarella cheese crumbles[110] Sustainability and ESG Initiatives - The company is implementing its "GREEN" strategy and "dual-carbon goals", including deforestation-free strategies and green packaging transformation[9] - Established a "1+N" sustainability report disclosure system and released key reports including the "2023 Annual Sustainability Report" and the first TNFD-aligned "Nature-Related Information Disclosure Report" in China's dairy industry[117][118] - Developed a 4R1D green packaging strategy (Reduce/Recycle/Reuse/Renew/Degradable) and set quantitative goals for reducing environmentally unfriendly plastics and increasing recycled materials usage[118] - Partnered with Aihuishou to launch the "New Life Dairy Packaging Recycling Program" and signed a sustainability agreement with the Bel Group for low-carbon agriculture and food waste reduction[119] - Joined the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) and completed the delivery of China's first batch of "zero-deforestation" soybeans[120] - Established the Inner Mongolia Mengniu Public Charity Foundation focusing on disaster relief, nutrition enhancement, rural revitalization, and ecological protection[121] - The company is integrating ESG concepts into its corporate management under the GREEN strategy, focusing on governance, risk management, and business ethics to enhance sustainability[183] - The Company has adopted ESG governance, risk governance, and business ethics as part of its GREEN strategy to enhance sustainable corporate governance[185] Digital Transformation and AI Integration - Online membership exceeded 82 million, with a focus on high-growth channels such as interest-based and content-based e-commerce[23] - The company is accelerating digital transformation to develop new production capabilities and optimize the entire value chain[16] - Mengniu launched over 1,700 AI applications across various business scenarios, improving decision-making and execution efficiency[67][68] - Mengniu's digital intelligence team accelerated platform development and integrated AI to boost productivity, addressing supply-demand imbalances[65][66] - Mengniu upgraded its store and warehouse systems, introduced a smart sales system, and launched a comprehensive digital marketing platform, significantly reducing sales costs[67][68] - Mengniu streamlined supply chain processes, improving inventory turnover and addressing technical bottlenecks behind supply-demand imbalances[67][68] - Mengniu promoted the "AI Smart Data Analysis Assistant," leveraging AIGC technology to drive sustainable growth in front-end operations[67][68] Corporate Governance and Shareholder Information - The company plans to repurchase shares up to HK$2 billion in value over the next 12 months[8] - The company does not recommend paying an interim dividend for the six months ended 30 June 2024, and proposes to retain the profit for that period[132][135] - Lu Minfang holds 11,459,810 shares, representing 0.29% of the company's issued share capital[137] - Gao Fei holds 4,287,957 shares, representing 0.11% of the company's issued share capital[137] - COFCO Corporation is the largest shareholder with 950,014,304 shares, representing 24.14% of the company's issued share capital[143] - COFCO (Hong Kong) Limited holds 938,103,304 shares, representing 23.84% of the company's issued share capital[143] - China Foods (Holdings) Limited holds 846,174,304 shares, representing 21.50% of the company's issued share capital[143] - FIL Limited holds 275,172,000 shares, representing 6.99% of the company's issued share capital[143] - Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. holds 318,451,000 shares, representing 8.09% of the company's issued share capital[143] - BlackRock, Inc. holds 228,665,398 shares, representing 5.81% of the company's issued share capital[143] - UBS Group AG holds 249,795,549 shares, representing 6.35% of the company's issued share capital[143] - COFCO Corporation holds an aggregate of 950,014,304 shares in the company through its controlled corporations[144] - COFCO (Hong Kong) Limited is a beneficial owner of 91,929,000 shares and deemed interested in another 846,174,304 shares through its controlled corporations[144] - China Foods (Holdings) Limited is deemed interested in 846,174,304 shares through its controlled corporations[144] - Farwill Limited is deemed interested in 846,174,304 shares through its controlled corporations[144] - COFCO Dairy Holdings Limited is deemed interested in 846,174,304 shares through its controlled corporations[147] - COFCO Dairy Investments Limited is a beneficial owner of 550,146,260 shares and deemed interested in another 296,028,044 shares through its controlled corporation[147] - Prominent Achiever Limited is a beneficial owner of 296,028,044 shares[147] - The total issued shares of the company as of 30 June 2024 was 3,935,292,513[147] - The total number of securities available for issue under the 2016 Share Option Scheme is 391,926,640 shares, representing 9.96% of the total issued shares as of 28 August 2024[149] - The number of options available for grant under the Scheme Mandate Limit at the end of the period is 308,959,929[149] - The total number of shares that can be issued under the 2016 Share Option Scheme is 391,926,640 shares, representing 10% of the total shares on June 3, 2016, and 9.96% of the total issued shares as of August 28, 2024[150] - The maximum number of shares each participant can hold under the 2016 Share Option Scheme is 39,192,664 shares, which is 1% of the total issued shares at the time of approval[150] - The number of share options available for grant at the beginning of the period was 299,974,501, and at the end of the period, it was 308,959,929[150] - The percentage of shares that could be issued under all the company's plans during the period, divided by the weighted average number of shares issued during the period, was 0.96%[150] - Executive Director Lu Minfang held 8,363,639 share options as of June 30, 2024, with an exercise price of 40.58[152] - Executive Director Gao Fei held 2,669,876 share options as of June 30, 2024, with an exercise price of 40.58[152] - Employees in aggregate held 13,668,974 share options as of June 30, 2024, with an exercise price of 40.58[152] - 70% of the 627,283 options granted will vest on April 1, 2021, and the remaining 30% will vest on April 1, 2022[153] - The share options will only vest if the pre-set performance targets of both the Group and the participants are achieved, otherwise, the options will lapse[153] - The share options have a contractual life of five years from the date of grant[153] - The maximum number of shares that can be purchased under the Share Award Scheme is 178,105,864 shares, representing 5% of the issued share capital as of the Adoption Date (3,562,117,284 shares)[161] - The maximum number of restricted shares that can be granted to a single participant at any one time or in aggregate is 17,810,586 shares, which is 0.5% of the issued share capital as of the Adoption Date[161] - During the year ended 31 December 2023, no share awards were granted, vested, or cancelled, and the purchase price for all share awards was nil[162] - As of 30 June 2024, no shares were granted to selected participants under the Share Award Scheme[163] - The fair value of shares granted under the Share Award Scheme is calculated based on the market prices of the Company's shares at the respective grant dates, without considering dividends[165] - The performance targets for restricted share awards are based on annual revenue, profit attributable to owners of the Company, and free cash flow of the Group[165] - As of 30 June 2024, convertible bonds with a nominal value of HK$3,646,950,000 remain outstanding, with 111,595,758 ordinary shares potentially issuable upon full conversion[167] - The Share Award Scheme is funded by existing shares of the Company, and no new shares are issued, thus avoiding dilution of existing shareholders' equity[160] - The company issued convertible bonds with a nominal value of HK$4,862,600,000 on 26 November 2021, with an initial conversion price of HK$34.73 per share, later adjusted to HK$32.68 per share as of 12 June 2024[171][173] - As of 30 June 2024, convertible bonds with a nominal value of HK$3,646,950,000 remain outstanding, which could be converted into 111,595,758 ordinary shares at the adjusted conversion price[174][179] - The company redeemed convertible bonds with nominal values of HK$486,260,000 and HK$729,390,000 on 21 November 2022 and 1 December 2023, respectively[174][179] - The Group's cash and cash equivalents denominated in RMB, USD, Philippine peso, and Euro were approximately RMB30,640,000, RMB55,937,000, RMB56,526,000, and RMB91,000, respectively, as of 30 June 2024[170][172] - The Group's interest-bearing bank and other borrowings denominated in USD were approximately RMB778,959,000 as of

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company achieved a main operating revenue of 44.671 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 12.61%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.446 billion yuan, down 19.03% year-on-year. The company plans to repurchase up to 2 billion HKD of shares within the next twelve months based on market conditions [3][6] - The report indicates that the dairy product industry is under short-term pressure, but the company is enhancing its operating profit margin, achieving a year-on-year increase of 0.46 percentage points to 7.26% due to a decrease in raw milk prices, despite a decline in gross profit [3][6] - The liquid milk segment showed improved profitability, with revenue of 36.262 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 12.92%, but a profit margin increase of 0.25 percentage points to 6.93% [3][6] - The ice cream segment faced challenges with a revenue of 3.371 billion yuan, down 21.75% year-on-year, and a profit margin decrease of 5.20 percentage points [4] - The infant formula segment reported revenue of 1.635 billion yuan, down 13.67% year-on-year, but achieved a profit margin increase of 8.48 percentage points [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a main operating revenue of 44.671 billion yuan in H1 2024, down 12.61% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.446 billion yuan, down 19.03% year-on-year [3][6] - The gross profit margin improved by 1.86 percentage points to 40.26%, despite a gross profit decline of 8.38% [3] - The operating profit margin increased by 0.46 percentage points to 7.26% [3] Business Segments - Liquid Milk: Revenue of 36.262 billion yuan, down 12.92% year-on-year, with a profit margin of 6.93%, up 0.25 percentage points [3] - Ice Cream: Revenue of 3.371 billion yuan, down 21.75% year-on-year, with a profit margin of 11.32%, down 5.20 percentage points [4] - Infant Formula: Revenue of 1.635 billion yuan, down 13.67% year-on-year, with a profit margin of 1.43%, up 8.48 percentage points [6] - Cheese: Revenue of 2.114 billion yuan, down 6.28% year-on-year, with a profit margin of 5.60%, up 2.27 percentage points [6] Future Outlook - The company expects revenues for 2024-2026 to be 91.674 billion yuan, 97.464 billion yuan, and 100.970 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 4.305 billion yuan, 5.017 billion yuan, and 5.358 billion yuan respectively [6][8] - The report assigns a PE valuation range of 12-15 times for 2024E, corresponding to a per-share value range of 13.08 to 16.35 HKD, with a reasonable value range of 14.37 to 17.97 HKD per share [6][8]