Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for China Power International Development (2380 HK) with a target price of HKD 4.72, while the current price is HKD 3.83 [3][12]. Core Insights - The company experienced lower-than-expected performance in 2023 due to a historically dry season affecting hydropower generation, resulting in a loss of RMB 830 million from hydropower operations. However, profits from new energy and thermal power have significantly increased [9][11]. - The installed capacity of new energy has grown significantly, reaching 45.02 GW by the end of 2023, with clean energy accounting for nearly 75% of the total. The company plans to further increase its wind and solar capacity in 2024 [10][11]. - The thermal power sector's profitability has improved due to a decrease in coal prices and effective coal-fired power joint ventures, leading to a net profit of RMB 1.32 billion in 2023 [11]. Financial Summary - In 2023, the company reported operating income of RMB 44.262 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.31%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 2.66 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.23% [9][12]. - The forecast for revenue from 2024 to 2026 is RMB 52.319 billion, RMB 57.702 billion, and RMB 62.180 billion, respectively, with net profit attributable to shareholders projected at RMB 5.033 billion, RMB 6.601 billion, and RMB 7.685 billion [12][11]. - The company plans to maintain a high dividend payout ratio of 61% for 2023, with a proposed dividend of RMB 0.132 per share [9][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Power (2380 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 4.75 from HKD 3.90, indicating a potential upside of 27.0% from the current price of HKD 3.74 [1][2][11]. Core Views - The report highlights that new policies for renewable energy consumption are favorable for the advancement of new wind and solar projects, leading to an upward revision of the target price [1]. - Hydropower is recovering as expected, with a significant year-on-year increase in generation, and the forecast for hydropower utilization hours for 2024 has been adjusted from 2,750 to 2,900 hours [1][2]. - The report notes that while the utilization hours for wind and solar power are expected to remain stable, the company has seen substantial increases in generation due to acquisitions and new projects [2]. - The adjustment in the renewable energy consumption policy is expected to support the growth in new installations, ensuring reasonable utilization rates for new projects [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 43,689 million in 2022 to RMB 61,756 million by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8.8% [3][12]. - Net profit is expected to increase significantly from RMB 2,648 million in 2022 to RMB 8,791 million in 2026, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [3][12]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from RMB 0.20 in 2022 to RMB 0.68 in 2026, indicating a robust increase in profitability [3][12]. - The report anticipates a dividend payout ratio of 50%, resulting in an attractive dividend yield of 7.7% in 2025 [2][3]. Generation Capacity Forecast - The total generation capacity is expected to increase from 52,019 million kWh in 2024E to 67,019 million kWh by 2026E, with significant contributions from hydropower, wind, and solar energy [5][6]. - The report projects that the share of renewable energy in the company's generation mix will rise from 78.7% in 2024E to 83.5% by 2026E, reflecting a strategic shift towards cleaner energy sources [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, China Power (2380 HK), with a target price of HKD 4.75, indicating a potential upside of 27.0% from the current closing price of HKD 3.74 [1][11]. Core Views - The report highlights that new policies for renewable energy consumption are favorable for the advancement of new wind and solar projects, leading to an upward revision of the target price [1]. - Hydropower is recovering as expected, with a significant year-on-year increase in generation, and the forecast for hydropower utilization hours has been slightly raised for 2024 [1][2]. - The report anticipates that the company's new installed capacity in wind and solar will contribute positively to profit growth, supported by national policies [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 43,689 million in 2022 to RMB 61,756 million by 2026, with a notable increase of 16.2% expected in 2024 [3][12]. - Net profit is expected to rise significantly from RMB 2,648 million in 2022 to RMB 8,791 million in 2026, with a substantial growth rate of 73.4% in 2024 [3][12]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from RMB 0.20 in 2022 to RMB 0.68 in 2026, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [3][12]. Power Generation Forecast - The report provides a detailed forecast for power generation, with total generation expected to reach 133,468 GWh by 2026, showing a steady increase across various energy sources [6]. - Hydropower generation is expected to recover to 17,258 GWh in 2026, while wind and solar generation are projected to grow significantly, with solar expected to reach 36,877 GWh by 2026 [6]. Valuation Metrics - The report uses a sum-of-the-parts valuation approach, resulting in a target price of HKD 4.75, based on various valuation multiples for different energy segments [7]. - The projected dividend yield for 2025 is estimated at 7.7%, making the stock attractive for income-focused investors [2][11]. Installed Capacity and Utilization - The report anticipates a total installed capacity of 67,019 MW by 2026, with a significant portion coming from renewable sources [5]. - The utilization hours for wind and solar are expected to stabilize, with adjustments made to previous estimates based on recent performance data [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Power (2380.HK) [7] Core Views - Recent increase in shareholding by CITIC Financial Assets, now holding approximately 619 million shares, representing 5% of the company, indicates strong confidence in the company's long-term value [5][6] - The major shareholder has also significantly increased their stake, raising it by 2.61% in 2023, reflecting a commitment to the company's long-term development strategy [5][6] - The company's operational performance has shown remarkable improvement, with electricity sales reaching a historical high, and a 33.45% year-on-year increase in total electricity sales to 40.817 billion kWh in the first four months of 2024 [5][6] - The company is expected to benefit from a favorable coal supply environment, with coal prices decreasing by 20.15% year-on-year, which will alleviate cost pressures on thermal power operations [5][6] - The company has a strong dividend commitment, with a payout ratio of 61.38% in 2023, enhancing its investment appeal [5][6] Summary by Sections Shareholding Changes - CITIC Financial Assets has become the first major shareholder above 5% in 2023, reflecting confidence in the company's value [5][6] - The major shareholder's stake increased to 63.67% by the end of 2023, up 2.61 percentage points from the end of 2022 [5][6] Operational Performance - The company achieved a record high in electricity sales, with significant growth in clean energy generation [5][6] - The first four months of 2024 saw total electricity sales of 40.817 billion kWh, a 33.45% increase year-on-year [5][6] - Clean energy sales, including hydropower, wind, and solar, showed substantial growth rates of 79.64%, 52.10%, and 88.03% respectively [5][6] Future Growth Potential - The company aims for over 90% of its installed capacity to come from clean energy by 2025, necessitating the addition of over 38 million kW of clean energy capacity [6] - The company has acquired 9.2683 million kW of new energy assets, reinforcing its position as a key player in the clean energy sector [6] Financial Projections - Expected earnings for 2024-2026 are projected at 5.005 billion, 6.048 billion, and 7.159 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.40, 0.49, and 0.58 yuan [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that CITIC Financial Asset Management has increased its stake in China Power to 5%, indicating market recognition of the company's value. The company is seen as having both high growth and high dividend attributes at the current stock price, making it a valuable investment in the context of a recovering Hong Kong stock market [3] - The company aims to become a world-class clean energy supplier, supported by its parent group, which has committed to enhancing the company's asset base through multiple rounds of asset operations since its listing [3] - The company has a strong dividend record, with a projected dividend yield of 5.5% if it maintains a 50% payout ratio in 2024 [3] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - CITIC Financial Asset Management increased its holdings in China Power by acquiring 12.65 million shares at an average price of HKD 3.5243, totaling approximately HKD 44.58 million [3] - The company has undergone significant asset optimization, including the divestment of old coal power units and the expansion of its renewable energy portfolio, which has led to improved asset quality [3] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company faced challenges due to historically low water levels, resulting in a 35.49% decrease in hydropower sales volume and a loss of CNY 826 million in the hydropower segment [4] - However, operational indicators improved significantly in the first four months of 2024, with hydropower sales volume increasing by 79.64%, wind power by 52.1%, and solar power by 88.03% [4] - The company forecasts a substantial improvement in performance for 2024, with net profit estimates of CNY 4.801 billion, CNY 6.930 billion, and CNY 8.029 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4][6] Valuation Metrics - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 8, 6, and 5 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4] - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from CNY 44.262 billion in 2023 to CNY 56.189 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 26.9% [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook on its stock performance [3]. Core Insights - The recent increase in shareholding by CITIC Financial Asset Management to 5% reflects market recognition of the company's value, highlighting its high growth and high dividend attributes in the context of a recovering Hong Kong stock market [3]. - The company has a strong dividend record, with a projected dividend yield of 5.5% if it maintains a 50% payout ratio in 2024 [3]. - The company is undergoing a significant transformation towards clean energy, with successful divestments of old coal power units and rapid expansion in renewable energy capacity, which is expected to enhance profitability [3][4]. - The company faced challenges in 2023 due to historically low water levels affecting hydroelectric output, but early 2024 indicators show a strong recovery across all operational metrics [4]. - Profit forecasts for 2024-2026 indicate a substantial increase in net profit, with projected figures of 48.01 billion, 69.30 billion, and 80.29 billion RMB respectively, suggesting a favorable valuation with PE ratios of 8, 6, and 5 times [4]. Summary by Sections Shareholding and Market Recognition - CITIC Financial Asset Management increased its stake in the company to 5%, purchasing 12.65 million shares at an average price of 3.5243 HKD per share, totaling approximately 44.58 million HKD [3]. Financial Performance and Projections - The company reported a net profit of 2.648 billion RMB in 2023, with projections for 2024 showing a significant increase to 4.801 billion RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 80.49% [5]. - The total revenue for 2024 is expected to reach 56.189 billion RMB, marking a year-on-year growth of 26.9% [5]. Operational Improvements - The company has optimized its asset quality by divesting from loss-making coal power units and expanding its renewable energy portfolio, with operational capacity in solar and wind energy reaching 15.149 million kW and 12.016 million kW respectively by the end of 2023 [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 3.96 HKD per share based on a 10x PE ratio for 2024 [4][12]. Core Insights - The company has seen a significant improvement in its shareholder structure, with CITIC Financial Assets increasing its stake to 5% and the major shareholder, State Power Investment Corporation, holding 63.7% as of the end of 2023 [2]. - The company is the largest power platform under State Power Investment, with a total installed capacity of 45 GW (equity capacity of 38 GW) as of the end of 2023, of which clean energy accounts for 34 GW, representing 75.4% of the total [2]. - The company reported a main revenue of 44.3 billion RMB and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.08 billion RMB in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.5% [2]. - The net profit from wind and solar energy reached 4.6 billion RMB in 2023, a significant increase of 69.7% year-on-year [2]. - The company is transitioning from coal-fired power to clean energy, with plans to add 4.5 GW of wind and 2.5 GW of solar capacity in 2024, which will increase the clean energy proportion to over 78% [2]. - The hydropower segment is expected to recover significantly in 2024, with a projected 79.6% year-on-year increase in electricity sales in the first four months [2]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 4.49 billion RMB, 5.68 billion RMB, and 7.02 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 8.91, 7.05, and 5.71 [3][9]. - The expected revenue growth rates for the years 2024 to 2026 are 30.4%, 16.1%, and 14.8%, respectively [3][10]. - The company’s EBITDA is projected to grow from 18.47 billion RMB in 2023 to 29.33 billion RMB by 2026 [3][9]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 5.8% in 2023 to 11.3% by 2026 [3][10].

本次会议为中国国际金融股份有限公司中金公司闭门会议仅限受邀嘉宾参会 未经中金公司和演讲嘉宾书面许可任何机构和个人不得以任何形式将会议内容和相关信息对外公布转发转载传播复制编辑修改等如有上述违法行为中金公司保留追究相关方法律责任的权利This meeting is a closed-door meeting of China International Capital Corporation Limited, CICC,and only invited guests allowed to attend. 没有CICC和评论员的写作允许,无许组织或人员允许处罚、推进、重新印刷、分拆、複製、改编或改编相同内容和相关资讯的任何形式。CICC有权依法调查相关的法律责任。 大家好,我是中金的研究员刘嘉尼,非常感谢大家能够拨入今天早上我们的中国电力一季度后的近况交流会。今天我们也是很荣幸地邀请到了公司的IR邵帅邵总来帮我们做一下行业,包括公司的一些情况的更新。 首先我们可能先把时间交给邵总然后来帮我们做一个简要的开场介绍然后我们再开始问答的环节麻烦邵帅谢谢佳妮感谢各位投资者今天早上抽空参加我们的会议也感谢中银公司提供这么一 ...

Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2023 was RMB 44,261,767 thousand, representing a growth of 1.31% from RMB 43,689,129 thousand in 2022[10]. - Net profit attributable to equity holders for 2023 was RMB 3,084,469 thousand, an increase from RMB 2,648,051 thousand in 2022[4]. - Operating profit for 2023 was RMB 8,715,187 thousand, up 14.61% from RMB 7,604,262 thousand in 2022[10]. - The total operating costs for the group were RMB 38,544,960,000, a decrease of 2.04% from RMB 39,347,562,000 in the previous year[134]. - The company reported a significant increase in revenue, achieving a total of $1.5 billion, representing a 15% year-over-year growth[66]. - The company reported a net profit margin of 12%, which is an improvement from 10% in the previous year[66]. - The net profit attributable to equity holders of the group for the year ended December 31, 2023, was RMB 3,084,469,000, compared to RMB 2,648,051,000 in 2022, marking an increase of approximately 16.4%[78]. Asset and Capacity Growth - The company's total assets increased by 44.65% to RMB 305,806,779 thousand in 2023 from RMB 211,404,964 thousand in 2022[10]. - The installed capacity of the company reached 45,018.8 MW in 2023, a 42.47% increase from 31,599.2 MW in 2022[9]. - The total installed capacity of the group's clean energy plants is 317.0 MW, with specific contributions from regions such as Hainan (125.0 MW) and Heilongjiang (80.0 MW)[24]. - The total installed capacity of the company's coal-fired power plants is 11,080.0 MW, with major contributions from Anhui (5,860.0 MW) and Shanxi (2,000.0 MW)[24]. - By the end of 2023, the company's consolidated installed capacity reached 45,018.8 MW, with the clean energy installed capacity ratio reaching 75.39%, exceeding the strategic target by 5 percentage points[50]. Debt and Financial Structure - The total debt of the company rose by 44.69% to RMB 168,714,840 thousand in 2023 from RMB 116,606,464 thousand in 2022[9]. - The company's debt-to-equity ratio, calculated as net debt divided by total capital, was approximately 63% as of December 31, 2023, compared to 62% in the previous year[154]. - The net cash inflow from operating activities for the year was RMB 9,903,018,000, significantly up from RMB 5,725,614,000 in the previous year[152]. - The company secured approximately RMB 11.268 billion through perpetual debt instruments from its ultimate controlling shareholder, enhancing its cash flow and financial structure[160]. Clean Energy Initiatives - The group has expanded its business to include hydropower, wind power, photovoltaic power, natural gas power, environmental protection power, energy storage, green transportation, and integrated energy services[13]. - The company aims to be a world-class green and low-carbon energy supplier, focusing on low-carbon empowerment for a better life[13]. - The company is currently constructing clean energy projects with a total capacity of 6,975.7 MW, including 5,615.9 MW from photovoltaic power and 1,329.8 MW from wind power[27]. - The company has been recognized as a benchmark enterprise in the "Double Hundred Enterprises" by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission[36]. - The company launched its first overseas photovoltaic energy storage project in Mexico, marking a significant step in internationalizing its energy storage business[35]. Technological Innovation - The company launched six technological innovations at the Energy Security Technology Innovation Forum, including a "Digital Twin Energy Storage Control Platform" and "AI-Powered Energy Intelligent Operation and Maintenance" solutions[41]. - The CTB battery system developed by the company's subsidiary has received approval for commercial use, showcasing advancements in battery management and efficiency[38]. - The company has successfully launched a smart energy storage platform with a capacity of 100 MW, marking a significant achievement in energy storage technology[85]. Sustainability and ESG Commitment - The company is committed to sustainable development and innovation in the energy sector[13]. - The company has been recognized as a leader in ESG development and was listed among the "Top 100 ESG Listed Companies in China," reflecting its commitment to sustainable practices[181]. - The establishment of a "Strategic and Sustainable Development Committee" in the board aims to improve ESG governance and operational efficiency[53]. - The company aims for "zero fatalities, zero accidents" in its safety production goals and has implemented various action measures to enhance safety management in emerging energy industries[173]. Market Expansion and Strategic Acquisitions - The company is considering strategic acquisitions to bolster its market position, with a budget of $100 million allocated for potential mergers and acquisitions[66]. - China Power acquired clean energy assets from State Power Investment Corporation for a total cash consideration of approximately RMB 10.7 billion, involving a total installed capacity of about 9,300 MW, significantly increasing the company's clean energy capacity ratio[40]. - The company is actively expanding its energy storage projects, with operations in 33 cities in China and international markets including Mexico and Chile[128]. Operational Efficiency and Cost Management - The average on-grid electricity price for coal power in 2023 was RMB 396.80 per MWh, a decrease of RMB 11.27 per MWh compared to the previous year, primarily due to structural impacts from coal power disposal[120]. - The average unit fuel cost for coal power operations was RMB 285.51 per MWh, down 12.46% from RMB 326.16 per MWh in the previous year[136]. - The group’s financial expenses were RMB 4,273,867,000, an increase of RMB 12,906,000 or 0.30% from the previous year[142]. Employee and Talent Management - As of December 31, 2023, the company employed a total of 14,254 full-time employees, an increase from 10,829 in 2022, reflecting a focus on attracting and retaining core talent to support strategic transformation and long-term development[177]. - The company emphasizes the importance of market-oriented talent recruitment and management to support green development and innovation[53].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][3] Core Views - The company's net profit for 2023 was 2.66 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 7.23%, slightly below the expected 3.2 billion RMB. The dividend per share is 0.132 RMB, resulting in a current dividend yield of 4.4% [2] - The primary reason for the underperformance was historically low water levels, leading to a rare loss in the hydropower segment, which reported a loss of 826 million RMB in 2023 compared to a profit of 261 million RMB in 2022 [2] - The coal power segment exceeded expectations, achieving a profit of 1.315 billion RMB, benefiting from the divestment of underperforming assets [2] - The renewable energy segment saw rapid expansion, with wind power capacity reaching 15.149 million kW and solar power capacity at 12.016 million kW by the end of 2023, resulting in net profits of 3.116 billion RMB and 1.504 billion RMB respectively [2] - The company is expected to add approximately 4.5 million kW of wind power and 2.5 million kW of solar power in 2024, primarily focusing on wind power to ensure project profitability [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported total revenue of 44.262 billion RMB in 2023, with a projected increase to 56.189 billion RMB in 2024 [4] - The net profit forecast for 2024 and 2025 is 4.801 billion RMB and 6.930 billion RMB respectively, with a projected PE ratio of 8 and 5 for these years [4] Strategic Positioning - The company is positioned as a flagship platform within the State Power Investment Corporation, with a clear alignment between the group's strategy and the company's development direction [3] - The dual carbon strategy is expected to resonate with the national reform context, enhancing the company's growth prospects [3]