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兖煤澳大利亚:股息恢复,支付比率为56%。-20250221
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-02-21 05:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yancoal Australia (YAL) with a target price adjusted to HK$36 from HK$38 [1][32]. Core Insights - YAL's net profit for 2024 reached A$1.2 billion, a 33% decline year-on-year, but exceeded expectations by 8% due to unexpected foreign exchange gains of A$149 million [1][2]. - The company announced a final dividend of A$0.52 per share, aligning with its dividend policy and expected to boost investor confidence [1]. - YAL's production guidance for 2025 remains similar to 2024, with an increase in capital expenditure anticipated [1][2]. - The average selling price of coal has decreased, impacting revenue forecasts, leading to a downward revision of earnings estimates for 2025E and 2026E by 13% and 12% respectively [1][32]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 decreased by 12% to A$6.86 billion, despite a 14% increase in coal sales volume to 37.7 million tons, offset by a 24% drop in average selling price to A$176 per ton [2][4]. - The company reported a stable unit cash cost of A$86 per ton in the second half of 2024, with a significant cash balance of A$2.35 billion, representing 30% of its current market capitalization [2][4]. - The earnings forecast for 2025E is A$1.016 billion, reflecting a 16.4% decline from 2024, with a projected revenue of A$6.55 billion [4][35]. Operational Guidance - YAL's 2025 production guidance is set between 35 million to 39 million tons, with operating cash costs expected to range from A$89 to A$97 per ton [2][35]. - Capital expenditure is projected to be between A$750 million to A$900 million, indicating a year-on-year increase of 6% to 28% [2][35]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates that YAL's valuation is not overly inflated, with a projected P/E ratio of less than 8 times for 2025E and a yield exceeding 6% [1][32]. - The company's market capitalization is approximately HK$37.9 billion, with a current share price of HK$28.70 [5].
兖煤澳大利亚:Dividend resumed with 56% pay-out ratio-20250221
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-02-21 04:33
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Yancoal Australia (YAL) with a target price revised down to HK$36 from HK$38, indicating a potential upside of 25.4% from the current price of HK$28.70 [3][29]. Core Insights - YAL's net profit for 2024 was A$1.2 billion, a decrease of 33% year-on-year, but 8% above estimates due to a significant foreign exchange gain of A$149 million. The company declared a final dividend of A$0.52 per share, with a pay-out ratio of 56%, aligning with its dividend policy and boosting investor confidence [1][9]. - The guidance for 2025 indicates stable output and unit costs compared to 2024, although capital expenditures are expected to increase. Earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down by 13% and 12% respectively, primarily due to lower coal average selling prices (ASP) and slightly higher cost assumptions [1][29]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for FY24 was A$6.86 billion, down 12% year-on-year, with coal sales volume increasing by 14% to 37.7 million tonnes, offset by a 24% decline in blended coal ASP to A$176 per tonne. Other income surged fivefold to A$159 million, driven by the aforementioned FX gain [9][10]. - The company achieved a unit cash cost of A$86 per tonne in 2H24, remaining stable year-on-year, while net cash at the end of 2024 stood at A$2.35 billion, representing 30% of the current market capitalization [9][10]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for FY25 is A$1.016 billion, reflecting a 16.4% decline from FY24, with a projected EPS of A$0.77. For FY26, net profit is expected to rise slightly to A$1.075 billion, with an EPS of A$0.81 [2][32]. - The report outlines a gradual recovery in revenue growth, with projections of -4.5% for FY25, followed by slight increases of 0.8% and 2.2% in FY26 and FY27 respectively [2][32]. Valuation Metrics - The current P/E ratio is approximately 6.3x for FY24, with a projected decrease to 7.6x for FY25. The dividend yield is expected to decrease from 9.0% in FY24 to 6.6% in FY25 [2][32]. - The report emphasizes that despite the earnings cut, the current valuation remains attractive, with a yield exceeding 6% and a P/E ratio below 8x for FY25 [1][29].
兖煤澳大利亚(03668) - 2024 - 年度业绩
2025-02-20 08:44
Financial Performance - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, Yancoal Australia Ltd reported total revenue of AUD 6.86 billion, a decrease of 12% compared to AUD 7.78 billion in 2023[13]. - The company's profit before tax (excluding non-recurring items) was AUD 1.69 billion, down 35% from AUD 2.58 billion in the previous year[13]. - Shareholders' net profit after tax (excluding non-recurring items) was AUD 1.22 billion, reflecting a 33% decline from AUD 1.82 billion in 2023[13]. - Basic earnings per share (excluding non-recurring items) decreased by 33% to 92.3 cents from 137.8 cents in 2023[13]. - The total dividend distribution for the fiscal year 2024 is expected to be AUD 687 million, compared to AUD 1.41 billion in 2023[15]. - The average coal sales price for 2024 was AUD 176 per ton[90]. - The offshore cash cost (excluding royalties) is reported at AUD 98.30 per ton, influenced by uncontrollable factors such as diesel prices and labor shortages[136]. - The total cash for the short-term incentive plan for 2024 is AUD 2,030,150, with 62% of the plan being deferred[140]. Dividend Information - The company declared a final cash dividend of approximately AUD 687 million, equivalent to AUD 0.52 per share, to be paid on April 30, 2025[4]. - The final dividend is fully tax-exempt income for shareholders[5]. - The board declared a fully franked final dividend of AUD 429 million, equating to AUD 0.3250 per share, payable on April 30, 2024[26]. Production and Operational Performance - Yancoal Australia produced 36.9 million tonnes of saleable coal in 2024, within the guidance range of 35.0 to 39.0 million tonnes[22]. - The cash operating cost for 2024 was AUD 93 per tonne, also within the guidance range of AUD 89 to AUD 97 per tonne, with a significant improvement to AUD 86 per tonne in the second half of the year[22]. - The company achieved a coal production target of 36.9 million tons for 2024, with cash operating costs at AUD 93 per ton[89]. - The total raw coal production is expected to increase by 4% from 60.2 million tons in 2023 to 62.7 million tons in 2024, with significant increases in production from the Yarrabee and Ashton mines[171]. - The company reported a 21% increase in raw coal production, reaching 43,928,044 tons in the 2023/2024 fiscal year compared to 36,440,860 tons in the previous year[191]. Corporate Governance and Compliance - The company’s financial report complies with the disclosure requirements of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange[3]. - Yancoal Australia is committed to high standards of corporate disclosure and transparency, ensuring timely communication with shareholders[27]. - The company has confirmed compliance with the conditions and requirements set by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for the period from January 1, 2024, to December 31, 2024[31]. - The company has established governance processes to enhance sustainability performance, focusing on risk management related to social and environmental factors, including climate change[196]. Executive Compensation - The total cash compensation for the CEO, David James Moult, in 2024 is AUD 1,837,332, which includes a short-term incentive of AUD 1,223,800[147]. - The total cash compensation for the Executive Director, Yue Ning, in 2024 is AUD 536,334, with a short-term incentive of AUD 370,550[147]. - The total cash compensation for the CFO, Su Ning, in 2024 is AUD 589,335, including a short-term incentive of AUD 435,800[147]. - The total remuneration for all executives in 2024 amounts to AUD 2,963,001, reflecting a 61% performance-related component[147]. - The company has a competitive executive compensation framework aimed at attracting and retaining top talent, with a focus on aligning pay with shareholder performance[94]. Safety and Environmental Initiatives - The rolling Total Recordable Injury Frequency Rate (TRIFR) for the year was 6.7, below the industry average of 9.0[90]. - The company is committed to improving safety through initiatives like the "Yancoal Safety Every Day" program and a mental health program, which has reached its fourth phase[182]. - Total Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions increased by 6%, totaling 2,086,402 tons of CO2 equivalent, up from 1,969,116 tons in the previous fiscal year[191]. - The company is actively researching emission reduction technologies to lower the number of required Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs)[186]. Strategic Outlook - The future outlook includes a projected revenue growth of 15% for the next fiscal year, driven by market expansion strategies[67]. - The company is actively pursuing partnerships to expand its market presence in Asia-Pacific regions, aiming for a 20% increase in market share by 2026[67]. - Strategic acquisitions are planned, targeting companies that enhance operational efficiency and market reach, with an estimated investment of AUD 50 million[67]. Market and Customer Insights - Revenue from coal sales in 2024 is expected to be significantly influenced by demand from customers in China, Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea, which accounted for approximately 86% of sales[164]. - The company is actively seeking to expand its customer base and explore new markets to mitigate the impact of market fluctuations[167].
兖煤澳大利亚:FY24运营大致符合预期
中泰国际证券· 2025-01-22 12:13
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) with a target price of HKD 40.00, indicating a potential upside of 33.3% based on the current price of HKD 30.00 [4][6][17]. Core Insights - Yancoal Australia's FY24 operational performance is largely in line with expectations, with a 10% year-on-year increase in equity coal production to 36.9 million tons, slightly above the company's guidance of 35-39 million tons [1]. - The average selling price for thermal coal in FY24 decreased by 24% year-on-year to AUD 160 per ton, while metallurgical coal prices fell by 22% to AUD 276 per ton [2]. - The recent change in CEO is not expected to significantly impact the company's operations, as the new acting CEO has over 20 years of experience in coal mining operations and management [3]. Summary by Sections Operational Performance - FY24 equity coal production reached 36.9 million tons, a 10% increase from the previous year, exceeding the forecast of 35.7 million tons by 3% [1]. - Thermal coal sales increased by 15% to 32.5 million tons, slightly below the forecast of 32.9 million tons [1]. - Metallurgical coal sales rose by 10% to 5.2 million tons, surpassing the forecast of 4.6 million tons by 14% [1]. Pricing Trends - The average selling price for thermal coal in FY24 was AUD 160 per ton, down 24% year-on-year but 1% higher than the forecast [2]. - The average selling price for metallurgical coal in FY24 was AUD 276 per ton, which is 5% lower than the forecast [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue for FY24 is projected at AUD 6.798 billion, reflecting a 12.6% decrease from FY23 [5]. - Shareholder net profit is expected to decline by 28.6% to AUD 1.298 billion in FY24 [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY24 is forecasted at AUD 0.98, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 6.0 times [5]. Market Position - Yancoal Australia is supported by its parent company, Yancoal Energy, which provides effective backing for its operations [3]. - The company has a market capitalization of approximately HKD 39.61 billion, with a circulating share ratio of 15.23% [6].
兖煤澳大利亚:站在需求反弹的风口上
中泰国际证券· 2024-11-26 04:56
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 40.00, implying a 21.6% upside potential [1][4][47] Core Views - Yancoal Australia is a Chinese state-owned coal mining company with operations in Australia, producing both thermal coal for power generation and metallurgical coal for the steel industry [1] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the rebound in demand, particularly from China, as trade cooperation between China and Australia strengthens [1][16] - Thermal coal prices are expected to remain supported due to ongoing geopolitical risks, increasing thermal power generation in China, and stable demand from other Asian regions [1][22] - Metallurgical coal prices are expected to follow the recovery in the steel market, supported by recent government measures to stabilize the real estate sector in China [2][27] - The company is expected to see a rebound in earnings by FY26, driven by higher thermal and metallurgical coal prices and increased thermal coal sales [3][37] Financial Performance and Forecasts - FY24 revenue is expected to decline by 12.6% to AUD 6.8 billion due to lower coal prices, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to drop by 28.6% to AUD 1.3 billion [3][37] - FY25 net profit is forecasted to decline by 6.1% to AUD 1.2 billion, but a rebound of 5.4% is expected in FY26 to AUD 1.3 billion, driven by higher coal prices and increased sales [3][37] - Thermal coal sales are expected to grow at a CAGR of 6.8% from FY23 to FY26, reaching 34.6 million tons, while metallurgical coal sales are expected to recover slightly in FY25 and FY26 [31][34] - The company's unit cash operating cost (excluding royalties) is expected to increase from AUD 92/ton in FY24 to AUD 98/ton in FY26 [38] Sensitivity Analysis - A 1.0% change in thermal coal prices in FY24 would result in a 2.44% change in net profit, while a 1.0% change in metallurgical coal prices would result in a 0.62% change [3][40] - In FY25, a 1.0% change in thermal coal prices would impact net profit by 2.73%, and a 1.0% change in metallurgical coal prices would impact net profit by 0.65% [41] - For FY26, a 1.0% change in thermal coal prices would impact net profit by 2.66%, and a 1.0% change in metallurgical coal prices would impact net profit by 0.62% [41] Dividend Policy - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio, with FY22-23 payout ratios of 45.2% and 50.5%, respectively [42] - The dividend payout ratio is expected to remain at 49.8% for FY24-26 [42][43] Valuation and Peer Comparison - The company's FY25 P/E ratio of 7.0x is below the peer average of 7.1x, suggesting potential for higher valuation given the expected earnings rebound and increased export opportunities to China [47] - The target price of HKD 40.00 implies an 8.5x FY25 P/E ratio and a 21.6% upside potential [1][47] Operational Highlights - Yancoal Australia operates 7 mines in Australia, with a total annual production capacity of 70 million tons of raw coal and 55 million tons of saleable coal [17] - Thermal coal accounts for 77.0% of the company's coal sales revenue in 1H24, while metallurgical coal contributes 21.4% [17] - China is the largest revenue contributor, accounting for 33.2% of coal sales revenue in 1H24, followed by Japan (23.4%), Taiwan (16.7%), and South Korea (15.1%) [17][20]
兖煤澳大利亚:3Q24 sales volume accelerated to +21% YoY; on track to achieve target
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-10-23 13:40
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Yancoal Australia with a target price of HK$42, indicating a potential upside of 36.1% from the current price of HK$30.85 [1][11][18]. Core Insights - Yancoal's sales volume in Q3 2024 increased by 21% year-on-year, with total attributable sales volume reaching 10.4 million tonnes, which is 73% of the full-year estimate of 37.3 million tonnes [1][2]. - The average selling price (ASP) for blended coal dropped by 14% year-on-year in Q3 2024, with metallurgical coal ASP decreasing by 28% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company reported a revenue of approximately A$1.78 billion in Q3 2024, reflecting a 5% year-on-year increase [1][2]. - Yancoal's financial position remains solid, with a gross cash balance of A$1.98 billion as of the end of September 2024 [1][2]. Sales Volume and Production - In Q3 2024, metallurgical coal sales volume increased by 17% year-on-year to 9 million tonnes, while thermal coal sales volume rose by 19% year-on-year to 27.3 million tonnes [1][2]. - The total marketable coal production for Yancoal in Q3 2024 was 12.4 million tonnes, a 2% increase year-on-year [2][3]. Financial Performance - For FY 2024, Yancoal is expected to generate revenue of A$7.138 billion, down from A$7.778 billion in FY 2023, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 8.2% [1][13]. - The net profit for FY 2024 is projected to be A$1.389 billion, a decrease of 23.7% compared to FY 2023 [1][13]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY 2024 is estimated at A$1.05, down from A$1.38 in FY 2023 [1][13]. Valuation and Assumptions - The valuation is based on net present value (NPV) calculated from future cash flows, with long-term thermal and metallurgical coal prices assumed at A$130/tonne and A$200/tonne respectively starting in 2027 [11][12]. - The report uses a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 6.7% for its valuation [11][12].
兖煤澳大利亚:三季度产量进度良好,维持全年指引
国证国际证券· 2024-10-23 01:40
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yancoal Australia with a target price of 38.2 HKD [3][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong recovery in coal production in Q3 2024, achieving an equity coal production of 10.2 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 24% [1]. - The average coal price realized in Q3 was 170 AUD/ton, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 14% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6% [1]. - The company expects to maintain its production guidance of 35-39 million tons for the full year [1]. - Cash operating costs remain unchanged at 89-97 AUD/ton, with a cash balance increase of 430 million AUD in Q3 [1]. - The report projects EPS for 2024 and 2025 to be 0.78 AUD and 0.98 AUD respectively, with a 2025 P/E ratio of 7.5x [1]. Summary by Sections Production and Sales - Q3 equity production was 10.2 million tons, with sales of 10.4 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 10% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 24% [1]. - The company expects Q4 production to continue at Q3 levels, with total equity production for the first nine months of 2024 at 27.2 million tons, a 15% increase year-on-year [1]. Pricing - The average sales price for coal in Q3 was 170 AUD/ton, with a significant drop in prices for both thermal coal (157 AUD/ton, down 29% year-on-year) and metallurgical coal (259 AUD/ton, down 22% year-on-year) [1]. - The report anticipates stable coal prices in Q4 due to balanced supply and demand dynamics [1]. Cost and Capital Expenditure - The cash operating cost guidance remains at 89-97 AUD/ton, with expectations for unit costs to decrease as production increases [1]. - Capital expenditure guidance is set at 650-800 million AUD, likely at the lower end of the range [1]. Dividend Policy - The company maintains a dividend policy of distributing at least 50% of net profit after tax or free cash flow, excluding non-recurring items [1]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024 and 2025 are 6.588 billion AUD and 6.919 billion AUD respectively, with net profit estimates of 1.030 billion AUD and 1.297 billion AUD [2][10].
兖煤澳大利亚(03668) - 2024 - 中期财报
2024-09-19 08:47
Financial Performance - For the six months ended June 30, 2024, total revenue from ordinary operations was 3,138 million AUD, a decrease of 21% compared to 3,976 million AUD for the same period in 2023[3]. - Profit before tax, excluding non-recurring items, was 571 million AUD, down 59% from 1,388 million AUD in the previous year[3]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders after tax, excluding non-recurring items, was 420 million AUD, a decrease of 57% from 973 million AUD in 2023[3]. - Basic earnings per share, excluding non-recurring items, was 31.9 AUD cents, down 57% from 73.7 AUD cents in the prior year[4]. - Operating revenue for the first half of 2024 was AUD 3,099 million, a decrease of 21% compared to AUD 3,924 million in the first half of 2023[42]. - The company's operating profit before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) was AUD 990 million, down 46% from AUD 1,821 million in the previous year[38]. - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 57% from AUD 973 million in the first half of 2023 to AUD 420 million in the first half of 2024[40]. - The company's operating profit before tax was AUD 590 million, down 58% from AUD 1,410 million in the previous year[38]. - The company experienced a 64% increase in income tax expenses, rising from AUD 415 million in the first half of 2023 to AUD 151 million in the first half of 2024[38]. Dividends - The company declared a final dividend of 429 million AUD (32.50 AUD cents per share) for the year ended 2023, which was paid on April 30, 2024[5][6]. - The company did not propose or declare any interim dividends for the six months ended June 30, 2024[6]. - The company paid dividends totaling 429 million AUD during the period, compared to 924 million AUD in the previous half-year[78]. Production and Sales - The company expects stronger production performance in the second half of 2024, with an 18% increase in equity commodity coal production compared to the first half of 2023[11]. - The overall average selling price of self-produced coal dropped by 37% from AUD 278 per ton in the first half of 2023 to AUD 176 per ton in the first half of 2024, mainly due to a decline in global coal prices[20]. - The total sales volume of self-produced coal decreased by 26% to 2,980 million tons in the first half of 2024 from 4,003 million tons in the first half of 2023[42]. - Self-produced coal sales volume increased by 17% from 14.4 million tons in H1 2023 to 16.9 million tons in H1 2024, driven by an 18% increase in equity commodity coal production[43]. - The company's full-year attributable saleable coal production guidance is between 35.0 million tons and 39.0 million tons, with significant increases expected in H2 2024[24]. Costs and Expenses - The average cash operating cost per ton decreased from AUD 109 in the first half of 2023 to AUD 101 in the first half of 2024, primarily due to increased saleable coal production[21]. - The total production cost per ton of coal decreased from AUD 163 in H1 2023 to AUD 140 in H1 2024[49]. - Employee benefits expenses rose by 15% from AUD 348 million in the first half of 2023 to AUD 401 million in the first half of 2024, primarily due to redundancy provisions and increased pension contributions[53]. - Transportation costs increased by 3% from AUD 401 million in the first half of 2023 to AUD 412 million in the first half of 2024, while the cost per ton of coal transported decreased from AUD 25 to AUD 22[54]. - Government royalties decreased by 28% from AUD 365 million in the first half of 2023 to AUD 261 million in the first half of 2024, primarily due to a 26% drop in self-produced coal sales revenue[54]. Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2024, the company’s directors and senior executives hold a total of 5,859,701 shares, representing approximately 0.44377% of the company[13]. - The largest shareholder, Yancoal Australia Ltd, holds 822,157,715 shares, accounting for 62.26% of the total shares[17]. - Cinda International HGB Investment (UK) Limited holds 101,601,082 shares, representing 7.69% of the total shares[17]. Environmental and Sustainability Initiatives - The company has spent AUD 35 million on purchasing Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) to meet regulatory obligations under the emissions reduction plan[29]. - Yancoal Australia is actively reviewing recommendations from the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures to incorporate into its sustainability strategy[28]. - The company is focusing on reducing Scope 1 emissions, particularly from diesel consumption and fugitive emissions, by identifying reduction opportunities at key mines[29]. - The 2023 sustainability report is available on the company's website, detailing progress on environmental, social, and governance (ESG) issues[28]. - The company is committed to improving its sustainability performance through strict governance processes and risk management frameworks[32]. Risk Management and Compliance - The company confirms that all directors complied with the share trading policy during the reporting period[15]. - The audit and risk management committee reviewed the interim financial statements for the six months ending June 30, 2024, which were not audited but reviewed by the auditors[17]. - The company has implemented necessary internal controls to ensure the financial statements are free from material misstatement due to fraud or error[147]. - The auditors did not find any matters that would indicate the half-year financial statements do not comply with the Corporations Act 2001[147]. Future Outlook - The company plans to focus on operational adjustments and cost management strategies to improve financial performance in the upcoming periods[39]. - The company is exploring potential acquisitions to enhance its operational capabilities, with a budget allocation of AUD 200 million for strategic investments[154]. - The company has initiated a long-term incentive plan aimed at aligning executive performance with shareholder interests, with a target of achieving a 20% return on equity by 2026[154].
兖煤澳大利亚:1H24 net profit -57% YoY below expectations; No interim dividend suggests potential M&A
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-08-21 08:39
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Yancoal Australia with a target price revised down to HK$42 from HK$45, indicating a potential upside of 17% from the current price of HK$35.90 [2][11]. Core Insights - Yancoal's 1H24 net profit decreased by 57% year-over-year to A$420 million, primarily due to higher-than-expected unit costs and a significant decline in blended coal average selling price (ASP) [2][3]. - The company has a strong net cash position of A$1.42 billion as of the end of June 2024, which may facilitate potential M&A activities [2][3]. - Despite the challenges, Yancoal maintains its full-year guidance for production and operating cash costs, with expectations for a unit cash cost reduction in the second half of 2024 [2][3]. Financial Performance - Revenue for 1H24 was A$3.1 billion, down 21% year-over-year, with coal sales volume growth of 16.9 million tonnes being offset by lower prices [2][3]. - The unit cash operating cost in 1H24 was A$101 per tonne, a decrease of 7% year-over-year but an increase of 17% quarter-over-quarter [2][3]. - The report projects a full-year revenue of A$7.138 billion for FY24, reflecting an 8.2% decline compared to FY23 [14]. Production and Cost Guidance - Yancoal's full-year production guidance remains unchanged at 35-39 million tonnes, with operating cash costs expected to be between A$89-97 per tonne [2][3]. - The report anticipates a 7% year-over-year reduction in unit cash costs in the second half of 2024, despite the current higher cost assumptions [2][3]. Market Conditions - The blended coal ASP fell by 37% year-over-year to A$176 per tonne, contributing to the decline in revenue and profit [2][3]. - The report highlights the potential for Yancoal to benefit from product diversification and long-term growth strategies, particularly in light of its strong cash position [2][3]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a valuation based on net present value (NPV) with key assumptions including long-term thermal and metallurgical coal prices starting in 2027 at A$130 and A$200 per tonne, respectively [11][12]. - The projected P/E ratio for FY24 is 6.6, indicating a relatively attractive valuation compared to historical performance [14].
兖煤澳大利亚:2024年中报点评:产量继续恢复,销价影响或近尾声
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Yancoal Australia [3][10]. Core Views - The company's production continues to recover in H1 2024, but sales prices have decreased year-on-year, impacting profit performance. Looking ahead to H2 2024, sales volume recovery is expected to accelerate, and the impact of price year-on-year comparisons is anticipated to diminish [3]. - Total revenue for H1 2024 was AUD 3.138 billion, a decrease of 21.08% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was AUD 420 million, down 56.83% year-on-year, which was below market expectations. Consequently, net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised down to AUD 1.285 billion, AUD 1.570 billion, and AUD 1.722 billion, reflecting changes of -5.18%, +2.41%, and +0.89% respectively [3]. - The average selling price for coal in H1 2024 was AUD 176 per ton, a year-on-year decrease of 37%. The average price in Q2 was around AUD 180, down 20% year-on-year, but this decline has narrowed compared to Q1's 48% drop. It is expected that the year-on-year price decline will continue to narrow in H2 2024 [3]. Production and Sales - The company's coal production rights in H1 2024 reached 16.9 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 17%, with thermal coal production at 14.9 million tons (up 24% year-on-year) and metallurgical coal sales at 2 million tons. Q2 production was 8.2 million tons, a 4% year-on-year decline, attributed to slight fluctuations in quarterly production scheduling [3]. - The company expects to maintain a full-year production target of 35-39 million tons, representing an increase of 6-56 million tons year-on-year (2-17% growth), with continued production recovery anticipated in H2 2024 [3]. Financial Health - As of the report date, the company reported operating cash flow of AUD 851 million, a significant increase of 856% year-on-year, primarily due to tax payments made in H1 2023. The company has maintained a net cash position since 2022, with a net asset liability ratio of zero and cash holdings of AUD 1.546 billion [3].