国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 海 外 公 司 ( 中 国 香 港 ) 52周内股价走势图 -34% -21% -8% 5% 18% 31% 绿城中国 恒生指数 2023/72023/82023/9 2023/102023/112023/122024/12024/22024/32024/42024/52024/62024/7 销售回暖延续,拿地保持定力 ——2024 年 6 月经营数据点评 绿城中国(3900)[Table_Invest] 评级: 增持 [当前价格 Table_CurPrice] :(港元) 6.27 | | | |---------------------------|----------------------| | 黄可意(研究助理) | 白淑媛(分析师) | | 010-83939815 | 021-38675923 | | huangkeyi028691@gtjas.com | baishuyuan@gtjas.com | | S0880123070129 | S0880518010004 ...

Financial Performance - Greentown China achieved an annual contracted sales amount of approximately RMB 301.1 billion in 2023, reflecting a stable growth trajectory[6]. - In 2023, Greentown's revenue reached RMB 131,383,150, showing a growth from RMB 127,153,071 in 2022[23]. - Revenue for 2023 reached RMB 131,383,150, a 3.2% increase from RMB 127,153,071 in 2022[25]. - Profit for the year attributable to owners of the company was RMB 3,117,684, a 13.1% increase from RMB 2,756,100 in 2022[25]. - The company reported other income and gains of RMB 3,242,922 in 2023, an increase from RMB 2,252,747 in 2022[25]. - The share of results from joint ventures and associates rose to RMB 2,164,698 in 2023, compared to RMB 1,684,294 in 2022[25]. - The Group achieved a revenue of RMB131,383 million for the year, an increase of RMB4,230 million or 3.3% from RMB127,153 million in 2022[58]. - Profit attributable to owners of the Company amounted to RMB3,118 million, representing a 13.1% increase from RMB2,756 million in 2022[58]. - The gross profit for the year was RMB 17,073 million, a decrease of 22.5% from RMB 22,021 million in 2022, primarily due to lower gross profit from property sales[81]. - The Group's revenue from high-rise apartments and serviced apartments amounted to RMB 109,435 million, representing 90.8% of total sales revenue[80]. Market Position and Strategy - The company maintained a leading position in customer satisfaction in core cities for 13 consecutive years and ranked first in product strength assessments for several years[3]. - Greentown China has been awarded "Top10 among 100 Chinese Real Estate Enterprises by Comprehensive Strength" for 20 consecutive years[3]. - The company aims to build a "quality benchmark among the Top10" and emphasizes a customer-oriented product strategy moving forward[6]. - The company aims to prioritize inventory sell-through in 2024, which is essential for new investments[19]. - Greentown aims to achieve "two harvests in one year" by maximizing profitability through careful investment strategies[20]. - The strategic goal for 2024 includes becoming a "quality benchmark among the Top 10" in the industry[18]. - The company emphasizes "comprehensively high-quality and sustainable" development as its main theme for 2024[22]. - The company is focusing on high-rise and low-rise residential developments, with significant equity stakes in multiple projects across major cities[45]. Operational Efficiency - The operational quality of Greentown China has continuously improved, with key indicators such as attributable sales and newly-added saleable value showing positive trends[6]. - The company plans to improve organizational quality by enhancing talent recruitment and internal mobility, and refining the assessment mechanism to boost employee motivation[74]. - The overall operational efficiency improved by 18%, with the period from land acquisition to first launch shortened to an average of 4.7 months[67]. - Administrative expenses decreased by 4.6% and selling expenses decreased by 6% in 2023[67]. - The completed area increased by 37% year-on-year to approximately 17.32 million sqm, meeting annual completion requirements[67]. Sustainability and Corporate Governance - The company is committed to sustainable development, focusing on high quality and efficiency in its operations[6]. - The MSCI ESG rating was upgraded to "A", reflecting the company's commitment to sustainable practices[57]. - Greentown China was rated TOP1 in "2023 China Green and Low-Carbon Real Estate (Operation) TOP10" and received an upgraded ESG rating to A from MSCI[72]. - The Company emphasizes high levels of corporate governance and transparency, maintaining effective communication with shareholders and the capital market[200]. - The Company has adopted effective corporate governance practices to ensure compliance with statutory requirements and applicable accounting standards[140]. Property Portfolio and Development - The company has a total gross floor area (GFA) of 37.20 million sqm across various regions, with 49% located in the Yangtze River Delta and Bohai Rim[28]. - The company has a diverse property portfolio with a total site area of 1,633,422 sqm and a gross floor area (GFA) of 5,143,448 sqm across various projects[34]. - The total property portfolio with a Gross Floor Area (GFA) of 6,365,512 sqm across various projects[41]. - The average land cost per GFA was approximately RMB7,982 per sqm, with 80% of land reserves located in first- and second-tier cities[64]. - The high-quality Yangtze River Delta Area accounted for 57% of the total land reserve value, while 10 strategic core cities accounted for 59%[64]. Leadership and Management - The company has a strong leadership team with diverse backgrounds in finance, law, and real estate management, enhancing its operational capabilities[115]. - The executive team is focused on strategic growth and operational efficiency, leveraging their extensive industry experience[111]. - The management team includes experienced professionals with extensive backgrounds in urban construction and real estate management[105]. - The Group's human resources costs represented the largest single expense among administrative expenses, with a focus on enhancing management efficiency and cost-effectiveness[83]. Challenges and Market Conditions - In 2023, the real estate industry in the PRC continued to experience deep adjustments, with the recovery process appearing to be relatively long due to many uncertainties[12]. - The demand for improvement in the real estate sector is gradually being released, indicating a potential for future growth[12]. - The company is facing a complex internal and external situation, which is contributing to the intensified differentiation of the market environment[12]. - The real estate market in China is undergoing deep structural adjustments, presenting various challenges for enterprises[56]. Employee Engagement and Development - The Group's total employee count reflects a commitment to growth and development within the organization[104]. - The Group provides various training opportunities for employees, including induction training and anti-corruption training[104]. - The organizational engagement score was 93 points, outperforming industry peers[68]. - The Company aims to retain employees through the Share Award Scheme, which recognizes their contributions and provides incentives for continued operation and development[178].

Summary of the Conference Call for Greentown China 2023 Annual Report Company Overview - **Company**: Greentown China - **Industry**: Real Estate Development Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - Greentown China reported a strong performance in 2023, achieving a historical high in revenue of **RMB 131.4 billion** and a stable core net profit of **RMB 6.4 billion** [11][12] - The company maintained a cash flow of **RMB 23 billion**, with cash and cash equivalents reaching **RMB 73.4 billion**, marking a historical high [11][12] - The cash short-term debt ratio stood at **2.3 times**, indicating a solid financial position [11] Land Acquisition and Investment Strategy - In 2023, Greentown acquired **38 new projects** with a total value of **RMB 142.5 billion**, ranking sixth in the industry [5][6] - The average land cost was approximately **RMB 59.5 billion**, with an average floor price of **RMB 11,000 to 14,000 per square meter** [6] - **84%** of the new land value is located in first and second-tier cities, with **58%** concentrated in Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou [6][8] - The equity ratio increased from **58% in 2021** to **74% in 2023**, enhancing profit margins [6][8] Sales and Marketing Performance - The company achieved total sales of **RMB 30.1 billion** in 2023, maintaining a stable year-on-year performance [9] - The sales from equity projects reached **RMB 12.76 billion**, with a notable increase in market ranking [9] - The first launch sales rate was **82%**, and the overall sales rate reached **61%**, both above industry averages [9][10] Operational Efficiency - Greentown improved operational efficiency, reducing the average time from land acquisition to project launch to **4.7 months** [10] - The company delivered approximately **1.8 million square meters** of property, with an increase in delivery efficiency [10] Future Outlook and Strategy - For 2024, Greentown anticipates a strong sales outlook with a total available resource value of **RMB 245.1 billion** [14] - The company plans to maintain a cautious approach to land acquisition, focusing on quality over quantity, with a target of around **RMB 100 billion** in new land value [15][19] - The management emphasized a commitment to maintaining high-quality projects and a strong focus on cash flow management [19][21] Market Conditions and Policy Expectations - The management expressed optimism regarding future policy directions, expecting a gradual release of supportive measures for the real estate market [20][22] - The company is prepared to adapt to market fluctuations and will prioritize project quality in its land acquisition strategy [19][20] Shareholder Engagement and Dividends - Greentown has a consistent share incentive program, which aligns management interests with shareholder value [21][22] - The company plans to review its dividend policy, aiming to maintain a high payout ratio while ensuring sustainable cash flow [25][28] Additional Important Information - The company has successfully maintained a high return on investment (ROI) for its land acquisitions, with an average profit margin of over **8%** [17] - Greentown's projects in key cities like Hangzhou are expected to have strong sales performance, with rapid turnover rates [27][30] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding Greentown China's performance, strategies, and outlook in the real estate industry.

股 票 研 究 [Table_industryInfo] 房地产 [ Table_Main[绿I Tnaf 城bol]e 中_Ti国tle]（ 3900） [评Tab级le_：Inv est] 增持 当前价格（港元）： 5.73 销售改善，投资积极 2024.04.10 海 ——2024年 3 月经营数据点评 [ 交Ta易bl数e_M据a rket] 外 谢皓宇(分析师) 黄可意(研究助理) 白淑媛(分析师) 52周内股价区间（港元） 5.52-10.90 公 010-83939826 010-83939815 021-38675923 当前股本（百万股） 2,532 当前市值（百万港元） 14,508 司 xiehaoyu@gtjas.com huangkeyi028691@gtjas.com baishuyuan@gtjas.com 证书编号 S0880518010002 S0880123070129 S0880518010004 （ [ Table_PicQuote] 中 本报告导读： 52周内股价走势图 国 2024 年 3 月公司自投项目销售情况显著改善，3月单月销售额降幅较 1~2月大幅收 绿城中 ...

Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating of the company to "Accumulate" [1][8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 131.38 billion RMB in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.12 billion RMB, up 13.1% year-on-year [5][6] - The company has maintained a strong operational performance, with a comprehensive gross margin of 13% in 2023, despite a decline of 4.3 percentage points from 2022 [6][8] - The company has focused on core cities, achieving a sales amount of 301.1 billion RMB, with a slight increase in sales area to 15.47 million square meters [7][8] - The financing cost has decreased, with the weighted average interest cost dropping from 4.4% in 2022 to 4.3% in 2023, indicating a stable debt structure [8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2022A: 128.15 billion RMB - 2023A: 131.95 billion RMB - 2024E: 136.10 billion RMB - 2025E: 139.31 billion RMB - 2026E: 142.26 billion RMB - Net Profit Forecast: - 2022A: 2.58 billion RMB - 2023A: 3.09 billion RMB - 2024E: 3.44 billion RMB - 2025E: 3.62 billion RMB - 2026E: 3.74 billion RMB - EPS Forecast: - 2024E: 1.36 RMB - 2025E: 1.43 RMB - 2026E: 1.48 RMB [4][11][12] Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to continue to perform well in core cities, leveraging its strong shareholder background and product reputation to achieve stable growth [8][9] - The report predicts a decline in EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 due to uncertainties in the industry, leading to the downgrade of the rating [8][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a previous rating of "Buy" as well [2] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 131.38 billion RMB in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.12 billion RMB, up 13.1% year-on-year [5][9] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.43 RMB per share, with a payout ratio of 35.2% [5] - The company has a strong financial position with cash reserves of 73.4 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, and a net cash inflow from operating activities of 23 billion RMB, up 57.5% year-on-year [5][21] Revenue Performance - The company's main business revenue reached 131.38 billion RMB in 2023, with a 3.3% increase compared to the previous year [5][9] - The revenue from development business was 120.58 billion RMB, a 2.6% increase, while the revenue from construction management business grew by 28.0% to 3.14 billion RMB [5] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2023 was 13.0%, down 4.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 5.1%, down 1.9 percentage points [11][16] - The return on equity (ROE) increased by 1.0 percentage points to 8.6% [16] Debt and Financing - The company has a total interest-bearing debt of 146.14 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, with a financing cost reduced to 4.3% [5][21] - The cash-to-short-term debt ratio is 2.3X, indicating a strong liquidity position [18] Sales and Market Position - The total contract sales for 2023 were 301.1 billion RMB, a slight increase of 0.3%, with self-invested projects contributing 194.3 billion RMB, down 8.7% year-on-year [5][21] - The company maintained a strong market position in high-tier cities, with 86% of sales coming from first and second-tier cities [5] Land Acquisition and Development - The company added 38 new projects in 2023, with a total construction area of approximately 5.57 million square meters, a 36.5% increase year-on-year [5][23] - The land acquisition amount was 59.5 billion RMB, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, with a land acquisition intensity of 30.6% [5][23] Future Outlook - The company expects revenue growth of 4% in 2024, with net profit projected to increase by 2% [6][7] - The company aims to maintain its sales target of 301.1 billion RMB for 2024, with a focus on high-quality projects [6][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 11, compared to the current price of HKD 6.24 [2][3]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of CNY 131.38 billion in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.3%, and a net profit of CNY 3.12 billion, up 13.1% year-on-year [2]. - Despite revenue and profit growth, the gross margin remains under pressure, with a comprehensive gross margin of 13% and a property sales gross margin of 11.3%, down 5 percentage points from 2022 [2][3]. - The company focuses on core cities and high equity ratio investment strategies, maintaining an advantageous land reserve structure [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company's self-invested project sales amounted to CNY 194.3 billion, a decrease of 8.7% year-on-year, with expectations to maintain around CNY 190 billion in 2024 [2][3]. - The company’s land acquisition in 2023 totaled CNY 59.5 billion, with an equity ratio of approximately 74%, an increase of 5 percentage points from 2022 [2][3]. - The average financing cost for the company in 2023 was 4.3%, a decrease of 10 basis points from the previous year [3]. Financial Projections - The projected total revenue for 2024 is CNY 137.13 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.9% [4]. - The estimated net profit for 2024 is CNY 3.20 billion, reflecting a growth of 3.3% compared to 2023 [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are projected to be CNY 1.26, CNY 1.41, and CNY 1.31 respectively [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][5]. Core Views - The company's 2023 performance met expectations, with revenue of 131.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. However, due to the downturn in the real estate industry and price controls, the company recorded impairment losses of approximately 1.39 billion yuan for non-financial assets and 230 million yuan for expected credit losses. The overall gross margin decreased by 4.3 percentage points to 13.0%, with property sales gross margin down by 5 percentage points to 11.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%, mainly due to a significant reduction in foreign exchange losses compared to 2022 and ongoing cost control measures. The core net profit attributable to shareholders remained flat at 6.42 billion yuan, aligning with expectations. The company declared a dividend of 0.43 yuan per share, corresponding to a dividend yield of approximately 7.9% based on the closing price on March 27, 2024 [4][5]. - The company has seen stable growth in equity sales, with total contract sales amounting to 301.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%. The self-invested contract sales amounted to 194.3 billion yuan, down 8.7% year-on-year, but the self-invested sales collection rate exceeded 100%, leading to a 58% year-on-year increase in operating cash flow to 23 billion yuan. The equity sales reached 127.6 billion yuan, up 4.2% year-on-year, with the equity sales ratio increasing by 8 percentage points to 66%, which is expected to enhance net profit attributable to shareholders [4][5]. - The company has increased its land acquisition intensity, balancing profit margins and internal rate of return (IRR). In 2023, the company added 38 projects, corresponding to new land reserves of 5.57 million square meters, with an estimated new value of approximately 142.5 billion yuan, ranking sixth nationwide. The average profit margin for new land reserve projects exceeded 8%, with 58% of the new value located in core cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou, where sales are assured. Additionally, the company's equity land payments amounted to 59.5 billion yuan, with a land acquisition intensity of approximately 47% relative to equity sales, an increase of 13 percentage points from 2022 [4][5]. - The financing structure has been optimized, with an average financing cost of 4.3% as of the end of 2023, a decrease of 10 basis points year-on-year. The net debt ratio was 63.8%, a slight increase of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year. The proportion of debt maturing within one year accounted for 22.3% of total debt, and the cash-to-short-term debt ratio reached 2.3 times, indicating a secure debt structure [4][5]. Financial Summary - For 2023, the company reported revenue of 1,314 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.12 billion yuan, reflecting a 13.1% increase. The gross margin was 13.0%, and the net profit margin was 2.4% [6][8]. - The projected financials for 2024 and 2025 indicate a slight increase in net profit to 3.13 billion yuan and 3.99 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 0.4% and 27.5% [6][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company achieved revenue growth in 2023, with operating income reaching 131.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. However, net profit decreased by 24.9% to 6.68 billion yuan, primarily due to a decline in gross margin and asset impairment provisions [1]. - The company’s financing channels remain open, with a positive operating cash flow of 23 billion yuan in 2023. The average interest rate for bonds issued was 3.93%, and the overall financing cost decreased by 10 basis points to 4.3% [1]. - The company’s sales performance remains strong, ranking 7th among the top 100 real estate companies in China, with a contract sales amount of 301.1 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.3% year-on-year [1]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company reported operating income of 131.38 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.12 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 13.1% [2]. - The core net profit remained stable at 6.42 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 13.0%, down 4.3 percentage points from the previous year [1][2]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was 1.22 yuan, with projected EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 at 1.24, 1.28, and 1.35 yuan respectively [2][3]. Land Acquisition and Sales Strategy - The company focused on acquiring land in core cities, with 38 new projects added in 2023 and a land acquisition amount of 59.5 billion yuan. The sell-through ratio was 46.6%, ensuring a projected saleable value of 142.5 billion yuan [1]. - The company’s land reserves at the end of 2023 amounted to 37.2 million square meters, with a saleable area of 24.99 million square meters, of which 80% is located in first and second-tier cities [1].

股 票 研 究 [Table_industryInfo] 房地产 [ Table_Main[绿I Tnaf 城bol]e 中_Ti国tle]（ 3900） [评Tab级le_：Inv est] 增持 当前价格（港元）： 6.00 稳中有升，巩固龙头 2024.03.27 海 ——2023年业绩点评 [ 交Ta易bl数e_M据a rket] 外 谢皓宇(分析师) 黄可意(研究助理) 白淑媛(分析师) 52周内股价区间（港元） 5.52-10.90 当前股本（百万股） 2,532 公 010-83939826 010-83939815 021-38675923 当前市值（百万港元） 15,192 司 xiehaoyu@gtjas.com huangkeyi028691@gtjas.com baishuyuan@gtjas.com 证书编号 S0880518010002 S0880123070129 S0880518010004 （ [ Table_PicQuote] 中 本报告导读： 52周内股价走势图 国 2023 年公司实现营收和归母净利润的双增，并坚持聚焦收敛的拿地策略，经营稳中 绿城中国 恒生指数 向好； ...