摩根士丹利发布研报称，预期绿城中国(03900)股价将于未来60天下跌，发生此概率预计逾80%。因为股 价近期已上升，令短期估值吸引力大减。该行现予绿城中国"减持"评级，目标价7.86港元。 该行预期公司或发盈警，因2025年核心盈利或同比大跌逾90%。同时，因可售资源减少及高基数效应， 首季合约销售额可能下滑。而且，公司估值正处于历史高位。 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley predicts that Greentown China (03900) stock price will decline in the next 60 days, with a probability exceeding 80% [1] - The recent increase in stock price has significantly reduced short-term valuation attractiveness [1] - Morgan Stanley has assigned a "Reduce" rating to Greentown China, with a target price of HKD 7.86 [1] Group 2 - The company is expected to issue a profit warning, as core earnings for 2025 may drop by over 90% year-on-year [1] - Due to a decrease in saleable resources and a high base effect, the first quarter contract sales are likely to decline [1] - The company's valuation is currently at a historical high [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's technical research report predicts that Greentown China’s stock price will decline in the next 60 days, with a probability exceeding 80% due to reduced short-term valuation attractiveness following a recent price increase [1] Company Analysis - The report suggests that the real estate sector's outperformance driven by sentiment is unlikely to be sustainable [1] - There is an expectation that the company may issue a profit warning, as core earnings for 2025 are projected to decline by over 90% year-on-year [1] - The first quarter contract sales are likely to decrease due to a reduction in available resources and a high base effect [1] - The company's valuation is currently at a historical high, leading to a "reduce" rating with a target price set at HKD 7.86 [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the real estate industry Core Insights - The real estate industry in China is transitioning towards high-quality development, with delivery being a key indicator of competitiveness and an essential aspect of operations [3] - In 2025, the top three companies in terms of delivery volume are Country Garden with 170,000 units, China Overseas with 133,200 units, and Poly Developments with 130,000 units [4][9] - The total delivery volume for the top 10 companies in 2025 is projected to be 996,800 units, a decrease of 36% compared to 2024 [9] - The industry is moving away from high turnover models, with delivery capability becoming a core metric for companies to navigate through cycles [10] - Companies are focusing on enhancing the quality of delivery, with an emphasis on customer experience and service [10][20] Delivery Scale - In 2025, five companies are expected to deliver over 100,000 units, and ten companies over 50,000 units, with 34 companies delivering more than 10,000 units [9] - The report highlights that the delivery scale is expected to continue declining due to the completion of delivery tasks and a decrease in sales volume [9] Notable Delivery Projects - The report lists several exemplary delivery projects, including "Times City" by China Resources and Huafa, and "Wenzhou Tianyuexi" by Poly Developments and China Merchants Shekou [7] - Projects like "D10 Tianyuan" by New Hope Real Estate achieved early delivery, showcasing effective execution and customer service [11] - The report emphasizes the importance of community facilities and overall living experience in enhancing customer satisfaction and reducing post-delivery disputes [19] Product Implementation and Service Optimization - The report indicates that delivery capability is becoming a critical link connecting product design innovation, green construction standards, and comprehensive service experiences [16] - Companies are focusing on upgrading their service offerings throughout the entire lifecycle of the product, moving from timely delivery to quality and value delivery [16] Community and Service Enhancements - Community infrastructure is highlighted as a key aspect of product delivery, enhancing customer belonging and satisfaction [19] - The report notes that personalized services and immersive experiences are crucial for building brand trust and improving customer satisfaction [20]

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market continued its upward trend with all three major indices closing higher: Hang Seng Index up 2.58% at 27,826.91 points, Hang Seng Tech Index up 2.53% at 5,900.16 points, and the National Enterprises Index up 2.89% at 9,512.24 points [2] - Leading sectors included optical communications, oil, gold, telecommunications, and real estate, while tea and aviation stocks faced downward pressure [3] Optical Communications - Demand for AI infrastructure has spurred the optical communications industry, with Changfei Optical Fiber Cable (06869.HK) leading the sector, closing up 15.43% at 75.20 HKD [4][5] - Corning, a major player in the fiber optics market, saw a single-day increase of over 15%, reaching a historical high, following a long-term agreement with Meta for the procurement of $6 billion worth of fiber optic cables by 2030 [4] Energy Sector - Geopolitical risks have heightened energy security expectations, with China National Offshore Oil Corporation (00883.HK) and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (00857.HK) both reaching historical highs, closing up 4.85% and 4.99% respectively [5][6] - The U.S. military's recent military exercises in the Middle East have raised concerns about energy supply stability, contributing to the rise in oil stocks [6] Gold Market - The weakening U.S. dollar has stimulated international gold prices, with Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693.HK) rising 10.65% [7] - The dollar index experienced its largest single-day drop since April 2023, pushing gold prices above $5,200 per ounce [7] Telecommunications - The telecommunications sector is entering a new phase of "deep integration," with China Telecom (00728.HK) rising 6.27% [9] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reported that the three major operators have added 108,000 data center racks, indicating a shift in focus from "broad coverage" to "deep integration" [9] Real Estate - Regulatory optimizations have boosted confidence in the real estate sector, with China Jinmao (00817.HK) rising 11.92% [11] - Feedback from multiple real estate companies indicates that the regulatory body has lifted the monthly reporting requirements for most firms, enhancing market expectations for liquidity and operational environment improvements [11] Individual Stock Movements - Wuneng Zhixing (00800.HK) rose 2.11% as it prepares to launch autonomous buses in Abu Dhabi [17][18] - Kuaishou-W (01024.HK) increased by 4.44%, with its AI product, Keling, surpassing 12 million monthly active users and achieving a 350% growth in paid users [19]

Core Viewpoint - The event, held by "Zhongyuan Greentown Association," showcased the cultural richness of Jinan and the warm community life within Greentown, emphasizing the theme of "family and community" through various performances and narratives [1][4][9]. Group 1: Event Highlights - The event opened with a heartfelt chorus of "Xiangqin Xiangai," symbolizing the long-standing relationship between Greentown and Jinan since 2007 [2]. - The performances were divided into four chapters: "Spring City," "Poetry City," "Book City," and "Green City," each reflecting different aspects of the community and its cultural heritage [4][6]. - The event featured participants of all ages, from young children to elderly residents, embodying the spirit of "all-age co-creation" and community warmth [8]. Group 2: Company Commitment - Greentown has been deeply rooted in Jinan for 19 years, having delivered 13 projects since the establishment of the All Sports Village in 2007, including notable communities like Baihe Garden and Yulan Garden [8][16]. - The company focuses on creating quality living environments and has received market recognition for its projects, such as Fengqi Heping and Chunyu Jinlu, which are strategically located in key urban areas [8][16]. - Greentown is committed to enhancing community life through ongoing activities and services, reinforcing its dedication to both "good houses" and "good living" [16][21]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Greentown plans to continue its mission of fostering beautiful living scenarios in Jinan, maintaining its core belief that "only life is most precious" [21][23]. - The company aims to further strengthen its relationship with the community and enhance the quality of life for residents, ensuring a harmonious and warm community environment [23].

Group 1: Hong Kong Stock Market Performance - Most property stocks in Hong Kong rose, with China Jinmao (00817) up 7.95%, Greentown China (03900) up 5.79%, and China Overseas Macro Yang Group (00081) up 4.62%. Vanke Enterprises (02202) also saw a gain of 2.49% following significant progress in debt resolution, with the extension proposals for two medium-term notes totaling 5.7 billion yuan approved [1][1]. - Pop Mart (09992) increased by over 4.8%, reflecting confidence in its development as it recently repurchased shares for the first time since early 2024, which is expected to attract more investors [1][1]. - Nanshan Aluminum International (02610) rose over 4.7% after announcing plans to invest approximately 4.37 billion USD (about 30.56 billion yuan) in a new aluminum project in Indonesia [1][1]. Group 2: Notable Company Announcements - Alibaba Health (00241) rose over 3.3% after launching a new feature for its AI medical application "Hydrogen Ion" [2][2]. - GCL Global (GCL.US) increased by 9.91% ahead of its earnings call scheduled for January 30, 2026 [5][5]. - Ericsson (ERIC.US) continued its upward trend with a 4.03% increase after reporting a strong Q4 2025 financial performance, with adjusted EBITA rising 24% year-on-year [5][5]. Group 3: Market Trends and Price Adjustments - The gold market saw a significant rise, with spot gold prices surpassing 5200 USD, leading to a 7.38% increase in the shares of Wan Guo Gold Group (03939) [2][2]. - The semiconductor sector showed strong performance, with stocks like Naxin Micro (02676) up 10.62% and a price adjustment announcement from Zhongwei Semiconductor indicating a price increase of 15% to 50% due to supply-demand pressures [3][4]. - The storage sector also experienced a pre-market surge, with Micron Technology (MU.US) up 5.44% as price increases spread across the storage market [7][7].

Group 1 - The majority of Chinese property stocks have risen, with notable increases in China Jinmao (up 6.62% to HKD 1.62), Greentown China (up 5.49% to HKD 10.38), and China Overseas Macro Group (up 4.2% to HKD 2.48) [1] - Vanke has made significant progress in debt resolution, with the extension proposals for two medium-term notes totaling CNY 5.7 billion approved [1] - Vanke's largest shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, has provided a loan of up to CNY 2.36 billion specifically for repaying the company's public market bond principal and interest [1] Group 2 - Northeast Securities indicates that housing market policies are being strengthened, with the central bank lowering the structural tool interest rate and the guaranteed housing re-loan rate down to 1.25% [2] - The down payment ratio for commercial properties has been reduced from 50% to 30%, and the tax refund policy for home exchanges has been extended, indicating a significant increase in policy support [2] - In first-tier cities, the supply-demand structure is improving, with new home transactions in Beijing increasing and second-hand home prices stabilizing [2]

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" compared to the market [2] Core Insights - New home sales in December showed a month-on-month increase of 33.6%, with a year-on-year decline of 32.1%, indicating a narrowing of the decline compared to previous months [5] - The second-hand home sales saw a year-on-year decline of 30.7% in December, with a month-on-month increase of 12.7%, reflecting a worsening trend in the second-hand market [5] - The overall inventory of new homes decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and 8.3% year-on-year, with an average de-stocking period of 17.8 months [5] Summary by Sections New Home Sales - December new home sales area increased by 33.6% month-on-month, but decreased by 32.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 6.6 percentage points [5] - For the entire year of 2025, new home sales decreased by 14%, with a year-on-year decline of 13.7% across 40 cities [5] - First-tier cities experienced a year-on-year decline of 15.8%, while second-tier and third-fourth tier cities saw declines of 12.6% and 13.6% respectively [5] Second-Hand Home Sales - December saw a year-on-year decline in second-hand home sales of 30.7%, with a month-on-month increase of 12.7% [5] - The overall second-hand home sales for 2025 decreased by 4%, with first-tier cities still showing positive growth [5] Inventory and De-stocking - The inventory of new homes decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and 8.3% year-on-year, with a de-stocking period of 17.8 months [5] - Major cities like Shanghai and Hangzhou have de-stocking periods within 12 months [5] Land Market - The land market in December showed a month-on-month increase of 126.7%, but a year-on-year decline of 8.9% [5] - The average land price was 1392 RMB per square meter, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.3% [5] Real Estate Companies - The top 100 real estate companies saw a year-on-year sales decline of 20% in 2025, with December sales showing a narrowing decline of 26.7% [5] - The land acquisition amount for December decreased by 58.1% year-on-year, while the total acquisition amount for 2025 increased by 2.6% [5] Financing - The financing scale for the real estate industry decreased in December, but showed a year-on-year increase for the entire year [5] - The total issuance of domestic and foreign bonds and ABS in 2025 was 596.7 billion RMB, a 6% increase year-on-year [5] Policy - The central government emphasized stabilizing the real estate market and reducing the value-added tax on personal home sales to 3% [5] - Local policies have been adjusted to optimize purchase restrictions and loan policies in cities like Beijing [5] Sector Performance - The real estate sector underperformed compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index in December, with an absolute return of -4.0% [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable fundamentals in core cities, smaller firms showing significant breakthroughs, and commercial real estate companies exploring new consumption scenarios [5]

现象级热销再现你永远可以相信绿城 转自：推广 当城市核心土地愈发稀贵，真正的塔尖资产总能穿越市场周期。1月24日，绿城・桂冠東方首开告捷，2分钟85%去化的热销盛况，深刻诠释了"稀缺即价 值"的黄金法则。在奥体板块价值全面兑现的当下，高净值家庭以实际行动，投票选择了这片不可复制的终极居住领地。 近期，"绿城现象"在西安高端市场持续显现，从长安玉华首开即罄，到桂冠東方2分钟85%去化，绿城旗下"双S档"作品接连以震撼市场的卓越表现，验证了 其无可争议的产品统治力。在豪宅成交数据中，绿城不仅持续领跑，更不断刷新着市场对"品质上限"的认知。 这一次又一次地创造'开盘即收官'场面的背后，是客户用真金白银投出的信任票。绿城的作品，早已超越单纯的产品营造，进阶为一种值得信赖的符号。在 西安，当谈论起顶级居住体验、稳健资产配置与高阶生活方式时，"你永远可以相信绿城"已成为共识。 图片来源：绿城・桂冠東方 从稀缺到共鸣高净值客群的心智之选 桂冠東方迅速点燃高端客群的购买热情，其背后的驱动力源于三个核心维度： 图片来源：绿城・桂冠東方 全维定制级产品力精准回应生活向往 绿城在奥体板块九年深耕所积累的上万户家庭，在桂冠東方项目中 ...