Core Insights - The real estate market in China is showing signs of recovery as 13 out of 18 reported companies achieved month-on-month sales growth in December 2025, with notable performances from companies like China Overseas Land & Investment and China Resources Land [1][3][4] - Poly Developments maintained its leading position in 2025 with a total sales figure of 2530.3 billion yuan, despite a year-on-year decline of 21.67% compared to 2024 [6] - The trend of increasing sales is expected to stabilize market confidence and alleviate buyer concerns, contributing to a positive outlook for the industry [4][7] Company Performance - Poly Developments led the sales with 2530.3 billion yuan, followed by China Overseas at 2512.32 billion yuan, and China Resources Land at 2336 billion yuan [6][7] - In December 2025, China Resources Land achieved a sales figure of 410 billion yuan, while China Overseas reached 398.32 billion yuan, and China Merchants Shekou reported 258.44 billion yuan [3][4] - Companies like Sunac China and Country Garden, despite facing operational challenges, remained in the top ranks with sales of 368.4 billion yuan and 330 billion yuan respectively [7] Market Trends - The recovery in sales is uneven across different tiers of companies, with Sunac China showing a significant month-on-month increase of 163.39% in December due to a low base in November [4] - The second-tier companies (sales between 500 billion to 1000 billion yuan) averaged 646.4 billion yuan, while the third-tier (300 billion to 500 billion yuan) averaged 381.3 billion yuan [7] - The focus on land acquisition in first and second-tier cities is evident, with companies like China Overseas and Poly Developments significantly increasing their investments in these areas [8][9] Strategic Adjustments - Poly Developments has shifted its land acquisition strategy, increasing its focus on Shanghai while reducing investments in Beijing, with land payments in Shanghai surpassing those in Beijing in recent years [9] - The overall strategy of major companies emphasizes deepening land reserves in key urban areas, which is crucial for sustaining sales performance [8][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that real estate is a crucial asset allocation and investment direction for Chinese households, and stabilizing housing prices is significant for facilitating economic circulation. The policy environment is expected to strengthen further, promoting high-quality development in the real estate sector. The report suggests that high-quality residential properties may experience a development wave due to policy guidance and changes in supply-demand structure [5][49]. - The report highlights that multiple favorable factors are driving a gradual recovery in the sentiment of the Hong Kong private residential market, indicating that Hong Kong developers may face a new round of value reassessment [5]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.8%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 4.4%, the ChiNext Index by 3.9%, and the CSI 300 by 2.8%. The real estate sector (Shenwan) increased by 5.1% during the week [5][8]. - The top five stocks in terms of growth were Chengjian Development (+34.5%), Yingxin Development (+22.0%), Shangshi Development (+20.8%), *ST Rong Control (+19.7%), and *ST Sunshine (+16.0%) [5][8]. Data Tracking New Housing Transactions - In the week of January 3-9, new housing transactions in 42 key cities totaled 1.37 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 46.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 41.3% [13]. - For January up to the week of January 9, new housing transactions totaled 1.55 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 30.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 46.6% [19]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the week of January 3-9, second-hand housing transactions in 21 key cities totaled 2.06 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 25.4% but a year-on-year decrease of 13.2% [33]. - For January up to the week of January 9, second-hand housing transactions totaled 2.14 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 16.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 23.9% [37]. Industry News - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, held a meeting to implement a package of policies to promote domestic demand, including expanding the scope of public rental housing guarantees [49]. - The People's Bank of China emphasized the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the integration of incremental and stock policies to enhance financial services for the real economy [49]. - Local policies include the extension of the down payment ratio in Shenyang to 15% until the end of 2026 and the increase of the public loan limit from 60% to 80% [49].

Sales Performance - In December 2025, 30 key listed real estate companies achieved a total sales amount of 232.86 billion yuan, with 22 companies showing month-on-month sales growth [5][11] - Among these, Sunac China had the highest month-on-month growth rate [5] - For the entire year, the cumulative sales amount reached 2,214.2 billion yuan, with China Jinmao and Greenland Holdings showing growth [5] Land Acquisition - In December, half of the monitored companies added land reserves, with a cautious approach towards year-end investments [7][12] - The total investment amount for the 30 monitored companies was approximately 30.1 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 29% [11] - The average land floor price in December was 10,968 yuan per square meter, down 39% from November [11] Financing Activities - In December 2025, the total financing amount for 65 typical real estate companies was 24.078 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous month [13] - The cumulative financing for the year was 414.314 billion yuan, indicating a low level of financing activity [13] - The average financing cost for newly issued bonds was 2.89%, a slight decrease compared to 2024 [15] Organizational Dynamics - Significant personnel changes occurred in major companies, including the appointment of Cheng Guangyu as the new president of Country Garden [16][18] - Greenland China initiated a comprehensive organizational adjustment, focusing on strategic leadership and risk control [19] - The trend in the industry shows a shift towards organizational efficiency and management optimization in response to market pressures [17][18]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry is gradually bottoming out and undergoing value reconstruction, adhering to the core concept of "long-termism" [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - In 2025, 10 real estate companies achieved sales exceeding 100 billion yuan, with 4 companies surpassing 200 billion yuan [1] - The top 10 companies by sales in 2025 were: Poly Developments (253 billion), Greentown China (251.9 billion), China Overseas Land & Investment (251.2 billion), China Resources Land (233.6 billion), China Merchants Shekou (186 billion), Vanke (178 billion), Jianfa Real Estate (156 billion), China Jinmao (135 billion), Yuexiu Property (128 billion), and Binjiang Group (105 billion) [2] Group 2: Investment Trends - The investment amount in 2025 reflects the industry's situation, with state-owned enterprises dominating the top ten in investment [2] - China Overseas Land & Investment, China Resources Land, Poly Developments, and China Merchants Shekou accounted for over 30% of the total investment among the top ten companies [2] - Private enterprises showed signs of recovering investment confidence, with total land acquisition exceeding 100 billion yuan in 2025, marking an 8% year-on-year increase [3] Group 3: Market Outlook - The year 2026 is expected to be a pivotal year for the industry, with ongoing debt restructuring among real estate companies and a focus on completing housing delivery tasks [3] - The market is anticipated to seek a new supply-demand balance while maintaining a stable adjustment, with potential structural recovery in residential market transactions [3] - The average annual sales area of new residential buildings in the next five years is projected to remain between 700 million and 800 million square meters [4] Group 4: Company Visions for 2026 - Poly Developments aims to enhance its core value through refined operations and digital marketing while expanding into property services and light-asset construction [5] - Greentown China focuses on product innovation and community service, emphasizing high quality and sustainability [6] - China Overseas Land & Investment plans to deepen its core business and enhance its competitive edge through technology and investment [7] - China Resources Land intends to accelerate its strategic layout and ensure high-quality project execution [8] - China Jinmao aims to become a leader in product innovation and sustainable development through a three-step strategic plan [9] - Yuexiu Property emphasizes high-quality growth through enhanced service offerings and community engagement [10] - Country Garden is shifting its focus from housing delivery to optimizing its debt structure and restoring normal operations [11] - China Communications Construction Company is committed to urban deep cultivation and digital transformation [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the real estate sector [2] Core Insights - The real estate sector index increased by 5.1% in the second week of January 2026, ranking 11th among 31 primary industry sectors [8][10] - New housing transactions in 20 monitored cities saw a 37% year-on-year decrease, while the average daily transaction volume increased by 104% week-on-week [22][27] - The report highlights three main issues in the real estate market: declining new housing demand, unresolved inventory issues, and the negative impact of land finance on the economy [34][35] Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The total market capitalization of the real estate sector is approximately 12,626.37 billion [2] Policy News - In Shenyang, new policies were implemented to optimize housing fund loans, including extending the minimum down payment policy to December 31, 2026, and increasing the loan limit for new citizens and youth [18][19] - Shanghai emphasized creating a fair market competition environment through new regulations [18][19] Sales Data - In the second week, the average daily transaction volume for new homes in 20 cities was 21.8 million square meters, with total transactions of 153 million square meters [26][27] - The average daily transaction volume for second-hand homes in 11 cities was 30.3 million square meters, with total transactions of 212 million square meters [27][32] Financing - The report notes that most companies issuing bonds this week are local state-owned enterprises, with New Hope Real Estate issuing the largest amount of 8.8 billion [33] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three areas to find alpha in the real estate market: precision in land acquisition for developers, stable assets like leading shopping centers, and leading real estate agencies [34][35]

Core Insights - The article highlights the net inflow and outflow of funds in the Hong Kong stock market, with Xiaomi Group, Tencent Holdings, and China Construction Bank leading in net inflows, while the Yingfu Fund, Hang Seng China Enterprises, and Southern Hang Seng Technology experienced the highest net outflows [1] Group 1: Net Inflows - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) recorded a net inflow of 1.07 billion, representing a 16.36% increase in its closing price [2] - Tencent Holdings (00700) saw a net inflow of 863 million, with a 7.49% increase in its closing price [2] - China Construction Bank (00939) had a net inflow of 699 million, with a significant 41.06% increase in its closing price [2] Group 2: Net Outflows - Yingfu Fund (02800) experienced the largest net outflow of 6.289 billion, reflecting a -31.44% change in its closing price [2] - Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828) had a net outflow of 2.880 billion, with a -17.89% change in its closing price [2] - Southern Hang Seng Technology (03033) faced a net outflow of 1.289 billion, showing a -11.37% change in its closing price [2] Group 3: Net Inflow Ratios - 361 Degrees (01361) led with a net inflow ratio of 74.40%, with a net inflow of 8.9117 million [3] - BRILLIANCE CHI (01114) followed with a net inflow ratio of 64.04%, amounting to a net inflow of 36.4910 million [3] - Qin Port Co. (03369) had a net inflow ratio of 61.05%, with a net inflow of 846,600 [3] Group 4: Net Outflow Ratios - Wisdom Hong Kong 100 (02825) had a net outflow ratio of -100.00%, with a net outflow of -18,200 [3] - Stone Pharmaceutical Group (02005) recorded a net outflow ratio of -68.86%, with a net outflow of -14.1501 million [3] - Dexion Shipping (02510) experienced a net outflow ratio of -53.53%, with a net outflow of -10.0204 million [3]

Policy News - The State Council held a meeting on January 9 to implement a package policy for fiscal and financial coordination to boost domestic demand, emphasizing the need to guide social capital in promoting consumption and expanding investment, particularly in supporting resident consumption upgrades and private investment development [1] - The People's Bank of China emphasized the continuation of moderately loose monetary policy during its 2026 work meeting, aiming to support stable growth in the real economy and financial market, while also addressing financial risks in key areas [1] - Recent adjustments to the real estate financing coordination mechanism allow projects on the "white list" to extend loans for up to five years, compared to the previous maximum of two and a half years [1] Market News - In 2025, the total land transfer fees for residential land in 300 cities decreased by 10.6% year-on-year, with a total of 2.3 trillion yuan, and the planned building area for residential land transactions fell by 13.5% to 620 million square meters [4] - The top 20 cities accounted for 52% of the national residential land transfer fees, indicating a concentration of land acquisition by major enterprises in core cities [4] Real Estate Company News - Vanke announced that Yu Liang has retired due to age, resigning from his positions as director and executive vice president, with no impact on the board's operation [8] - Country Garden's four bonds resumed trading on January 9 after early cash repayment was completed on December 26, 2025 [12] - Sunac China reported three new overdue debts totaling approximately 640 million yuan, with the main reasons being unpaid principal [13] - R&F Properties disclosed that as of November 30, 2025, the total overdue debt reached 38.7 billion yuan, primarily due to various financial obligations not being repaid [14] - Several real estate companies reported their 2025 sales performance, with Poly Developments achieving a signed sales amount of 253.03 billion yuan and China Overseas Development reaching 251.23 billion yuan [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2]. Core Views - The fundamentals of the real estate industry are still bottoming out, but positive policy factors are accumulating. Recent policies include extending loan financing for whitelist projects from 2 years to 5 years and various local government initiatives to support housing and talent retention [2][26]. - The report highlights that the real estate market has undergone a deep adjustment, and with recent central government calls to stabilize the market, there is an expectation for positive policy changes ahead. The current valuation levels for quality companies are attractive [2][26]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transaction Volume - For the week of January 3-9, 2026, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.784 million square meters, a decrease of 57.3% week-on-week. Among these, first and second-tier cities saw a 58.2% decline, while third and fourth-tier cities experienced a 40.2% drop [3][4]. - Year-on-year, new home transactions in January (up to January 9) decreased by 40.9% compared to the same period last year, with first and second-tier cities down 40.6% and third and fourth-tier cities down 44.2% [4][6]. Second-Hand Home Transaction Volume - For the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 key cities totaled 1.26 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 12.6%. However, year-on-year, January's cumulative transactions were down 23.3% compared to last year [10]. Inventory and Sales Ratio - In the week of January 3-9, 2026, 15 key cities launched 770,000 square meters of new homes, with total sales of 640,000 square meters, resulting in a sales-to-launch ratio of 0.83. The average monthly inventory turnover for the last three months was 21.6 months, a decrease of 0.24 months [19]. Policy and News Tracking - Recent policies include the Shanghai announcement for tax relief on land use for eligible taxpayers, and Nanjing's new talent policies offering living subsidies and expanded housing rental support [26][29]. - The establishment of the first local government-guided REITs fund in Xiamen, with a target size of 5.5 billion over 10 years, aims to revitalize existing assets [26][30]. Company Dynamics - December sales data for major real estate companies showed significant declines, with China Overseas Development reporting 39.83 billion yuan (-1%), and CIFI Holdings down 58.3% to 1 billion yuan [35]. - Notable changes in shareholding include the reduction of shares by the controlling shareholder of Binhai Group, decreasing their stake to 60% [35].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the real estate industry in November 2025 Core Insights - The performance of leading real estate companies has declined significantly, with a 32.4% year-on-year decrease in sales revenue and a 7.2% month-on-month decline, primarily due to high base effects from the previous year [5][39] - The average transaction area for new residential properties in first-tier cities fell by 42.42% year-on-year, while second-tier cities saw a 45.70% decline [10][11] - The total bond financing in the real estate sector reached 620.4 billion yuan in November 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 28.5% [7][41] Summary by Sections 1. Overall Industry Performance in November 2025 - **Market Demand**: In November, the average transaction area for new residential properties in first-tier cities was 198.60 million m², down 42.42% year-on-year, while second-tier cities recorded 757.70 million m², down 45.70% [10][11] - **Sales Situation**: The sales revenue of monitored brand real estate companies decreased by 32.4% year-on-year and 7.2% month-on-month, with only a few companies like Greentown and China Resources showing month-on-month growth [5][39] - **Land Acquisition**: The total land acquisition cost for monitored brand real estate companies was 11.99 billion yuan, with a total land area of 534,000 m² acquired [6][38] 2. Key Company Performance - **Vanke**: In November, Vanke acquired 3 plots of land with a total acquisition cost of 9.2 billion yuan and a planned building area of 190,000 m² [46] - **Poly Developments**: Poly Developments acquired 2 plots of land for a total cost of 1.74 billion yuan, with a planned building area of 111,600 m² [58] - **Sales Performance**: Poly Developments reported a sales revenue of 18.02 billion yuan in November, down 24.9% year-on-year, while Vanke's sales revenue was 9.42 billion yuan, down 53.2% year-on-year [61][48] 3. Financing Situation - **Bond Financing**: The total bond financing in the real estate sector was 620.4 billion yuan, with credit bonds accounting for 262.2 billion yuan, down 1.6% year-on-year [7][41] - **Financing Structure**: Asset-backed securities (ABS) financing reached 294.0 billion yuan, up 36% year-on-year, making up 47.4% of the total financing [7][41]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the real estate industry but indicates a cautious outlook due to ongoing adjustments in the market [3]. Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market is still in a state of adjustment as of 2025, with 53 companies consistently ranking in the TOP100 for five consecutive years, showcasing strong operational capabilities and sustainable development potential [3][15]. - The report highlights that 30 companies have ranked in both sales and land acquisition TOP100 over the past two years, indicating their active role in the market [3][21]. - The report emphasizes the importance of companies with strong governance, financing, and investment capabilities, particularly those focusing on local markets and adapting to policy changes [3][18]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - The report lists the top 10 companies by sales revenue for 2025, with Poly Developments leading at 253 billion, followed closely by Greentown China and China Overseas Land & Investment [4][10]. - The top 10 companies by sales area are also detailed, with Poly Developments again at the forefront, indicating a strong market presence [4][10]. Company Categories - Companies are categorized based on their sales performance and operational stability, with a distinction made between those exceeding 100 billion in sales and those below, highlighting the resilience of certain firms during market adjustments [15][18]. - The report identifies a group of state-owned enterprises and mixed-ownership companies that have maintained stable sales and investment levels, showcasing their adaptability in the current market [15][22]. Market Trends - The report anticipates that the average annual sales area for new residential properties will remain between 700-800 million square meters, with increasing urban differentiation [23]. - It suggests that the market is expected to stabilize after significant price corrections and supply-demand adjustments, with a gradual recovery anticipated in the latter half of the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [23]. Future Outlook - The report concludes that the real estate sector is likely to see a shift towards high-quality development, with companies demonstrating operational resilience becoming key players in supporting the industry's stability [23].