房地产/房地产开发 绿城中国（03900.HK） 2025 年 02 月 11 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/2/10 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(港元) | 9.060 | | 一年最高最低(港元) | 11.720/4.940 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 229.60 | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 229.60 | | 总股本(亿股) | 25.34 | | 流通港股(亿股) | 25.34 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 19.89 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -40% 0% 40% 80% 120% 2024-02 2024-06 2024-10 绿城中国 恒生指数 相关研究报告 《销售拿地表现亮眼，行业排名持续 攀 升 — 港 股 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2025.1.10 《公开市场拿地稳健积极，销售均价 显著提升—港股公司信息更新报告》 -2024.12.9 减值影响业绩表现，拿地强度维持高位 ——港股公司信息更新报告 | 齐东（分析师） | 胡耀文（分析师） | 杜致远（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Greentown China (03900.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [6][33]. Core Views - Greentown China has shown strong performance in land acquisition and sales, with a significant improvement in its industry ranking, maintaining a "Buy" rating. The company reported a stable sales performance in 2024, with a notable decrease in sales amount being less severe than that of the top 100 real estate companies. The company has actively acquired land in the open market and has a robust and quality land reserve structure [6][7][8]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In December 2024, the company's self-invested project sales area was 690,000 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 21.6%, with a sales amount of 21.7 billion yuan, down 14.9%. The average sales price was 31,504 yuan per square meter, down 6.3% year-on-year. For the entire year, the cumulative self-invested sales area was 5.91 million square meters, down 13.8%, and the cumulative sales amount was 171.8 billion yuan, down 11.6% [7]. Land Acquisition - In December 2024, the company added 4 plots of land in key cities, with a total land area of 216,000 square meters and a total land price of 4.83 billion yuan. The total land acquisition amount for 2024 was 64.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19%, ranking the company among the top four in the industry for land acquisition [8][29]. Financial Summary - The projected net profit for Greentown China for 2024-2026 is 3.04 billion, 3.60 billion, and 3.99 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.20, 1.42, and 1.57 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 6.5, 5.5, and 5.0 times for the respective years [6][10].

港股研究丨公司深度丨绿城中国（3900.HK） [Table_Title] 大浪淘沙始见金，综合优势渐兑现 ——绿城中国深度覆盖报告 %% %% %% %% %% %% research.95579.com %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 扎根浙江、布局全国的混合所有制房企。1）拿地销售表现领先。收敛聚焦，近年对杭州、京沪 的投资占比提高，拿地强度行业领先，销售排名提升至第 6 位；投资兑现度高，高流速限价盘 可接受相对较低的利润，普通项目利润边际改善明显。2）保证质量的同时未牺牲效率。产品提 配升级实现降维打击，货值挖掘兑现超额利润；极致管控工期，2024H1 回正周期 9.5 个月。 要么卖得更贵，要么卖得更快。3）混合所有制的优越性。中交集团在土地获取、融资渠道、财 务成本等方面给予支持，创始人在产品、运营等方面提供意见，共赢机制完善，效能逐渐提升。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 刘义 SAC：S0490520040001 SFC：BUV416 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 25 效率：开发效率第一 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of over 20% relative to the market benchmark within the next six months [4][119][136]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a quality leader in the real estate sector, focusing on core urban areas, with a strong financial structure and declining financing costs [3][44][119]. - The company has shown resilience in sales rankings, achieving significant growth in a challenging market environment, with a focus on high-quality projects and efficient turnover [2][65][75][119]. - The report highlights the company's robust land reserves and its leading position in the construction management sector, which supports future profitability [3][88][98][119]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Established in 1995, the company has become a leading benchmark for quality in real estate development in China, with total assets exceeding 530 billion RMB and net assets over 100 billion RMB [14][16]. - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with major shareholders including state-owned enterprises, which provide advantages in land acquisition and financing [16][19]. 2. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 131.4 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, with a net profit of 3.09 billion RMB, up 19.6% [2][3][23]. - The company maintains a healthy financial structure, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 69.2% and a net asset-to-debt ratio of 67.2% as of mid-2024 [3][31]. 3. Sales and Market Position - The company has focused on core high-tier cities, with over 79% of its saleable value located in first and second-tier cities as of the first half of 2024 [2][53]. - The average selling price of self-developed projects reached 28,334 RMB/m² in 2023, surpassing the average in core cities [65][70]. 4. Construction Management Business - The company’s subsidiary, Green City Management, is a leader in the construction management sector, with a market share exceeding 20% for eight consecutive years [88][90]. - The management business has shown strong revenue growth, with 2023 revenues of 3.3 billion RMB, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.4% from 2019 to 2023 [90][93]. 5. Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 135.2 billion RMB in 2024, with net profit projected at 2.77 billion RMB, reflecting a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 7.9 [3][112][119]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in the real estate market, positioning the company to capitalize on favorable policies and market conditions [119].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has shown a steady and proactive approach in acquiring land in the open market, with a significant increase in average sales price [6] - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profit attributable to shareholders to be 3.654 billion, 4.397 billion, and 5.070 billion RMB for 2024-2026, with corresponding EPS of 1.44, 1.74, and 2.00 RMB [6][10] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 6.6, 5.5, and 4.7 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, indicating potential for profit recovery after the completion of low-margin project transfers [6] Sales Performance - In November 2024, the company's self-invested project sales area was 520,000 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 36.59%, with sales amounting to 17.7 billion RMB, down 13.66% year-on-year [7] - The average sales price increased to 34,298 RMB per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 31.99% [7] - Cumulatively, from January to November 2024, the company sold 5.1 million square meters, a decrease of 14.72%, with total sales amounting to approximately 148.7 billion RMB, down 11.91% year-on-year [7] Land Acquisition - In November 2024, the company added five new land reserves, including a plot in Hangzhou with a total price of 1.716 billion RMB and a floor price of 36,568 RMB/m², with a premium rate of 22.92% [8] - Other notable acquisitions include land in Beijing, Xi'an, Nanjing, and Suzhou, with varying floor prices and premium rates [8] Construction and Management - The company's construction management projects achieved a sales area of 1.09 million square meters in November 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 6.03%, with contract sales amounting to 13.4 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 1.52% [9] - Cumulatively, from January to November 2024, the total contract sales amount for construction management projects reached 98.1 billion RMB [9]

Sales Performance - In the first half of 2024, Greentown China achieved contract sales of approximately RMB 126.5 billion, ranking third in the industry[9]. - Greentown Group maintained its contracted sales ranking at 3rd place in the PRC, with total contracted sales area of approximately 5.91 million sqm and total sales amount of approximately RMB 126.5 billion[22]. - The average selling price of self-investment projects was approximately RMB30,559 per sqm, maintaining a high industry level[22]. - The attributable sales amount for self-investment projects reached approximately RMB60.8 billion, with an attributable ratio of 71%, an increase of 7 percentage points compared to the same period in 2023[22]. - The Group achieved sales of approximately RMB5.7 billion from 6 advanced projects, with notable sales of RMB1.7 billion from Hangzhou Chen'an Yinyue Lane in just 21 days[23]. - The average net profit margin for newly-added projects in the first half of 2024 maintained a favorable level, with the average attributable ratio increasing to approximately 84%[25]. - The estimated sales conversion rate for newly-added saleable value in the first half of 2024 is 63%, ensuring liquidity safety for the Company[25]. - The proportion of sales in first- and second-tier cities accounted for 80%, with the Group ranking in the top 10 in 13 core cities[23]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, Greentown China achieved a revenue of RMB69,562 million, an increase of 22.1% from RMB56,976 million in the same period of 2023[22]. - Profit attributable to owners of the Company decreased by 19.6% to RMB2,045 million from RMB2,545 million in the corresponding period of 2023, impacted by a decline in gross profit margins and provisions for asset impairments totaling RMB1,750 million[22]. - The core profit attributable to owners of the Company, after adjustments, rose by 27.5% to RMB4,949 million from RMB3,881 million in the same period of 2023[22]. - The cash balance reached a record high of RMB75.133 billion, indicating strong financial stability[21]. - Investments in real estate development dropped by 10.1% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing challenges in the industry[21]. - The Group's revenue for the period amounted to RMB69.56 billion, representing a 22.1% increase from RMB56.98 billion in the same period of 2023, primarily driven by increased property sales revenue[35]. - Revenue from property sales reached RMB63.76 billion, a 22.0% increase from RMB52.28 billion in the corresponding period of 2023[37]. - The average selling price of properties was RMB24,100 per sqm, reflecting a 4.5% increase from RMB23,060 per sqm in the same period of 2023[37]. Customer Satisfaction and Market Position - Greentown China has maintained a leadership position in customer satisfaction for 14 consecutive years in key cities[6]. - The company aims to build a "quality benchmark among the Top 10" and focuses on being the best in understanding customers and products[9]. - Greentown China ranked 1st in customer satisfaction across 16 cities and in customer loyalty across 12 cities in which it operates in 2024, maintaining its title as "Leading Brands by Customer Satisfaction" for 12 consecutive years[29]. - Greentown China was awarded "TOP10 among 100 Chinese Real Estate Enterprises by Comprehensive Strength" for 20 consecutive years and was listed on "Forbes Global 2000" for several consecutive years[21]. Operational Efficiency and Development Strategy - The company emphasizes a development strategy of "quality first" and aims for sustainable growth[9]. - The company has developed three major segments: asset-heavy, asset-light, and "Greentown+" to enhance its real estate business[9]. - The Group's investment strategy led to the acquisition of 15 new projects in the first half of 2024, with a total GFA of approximately 1.31 million sqm and costs amounting to approximately RMB15.4 billion[24]. - The average land cost per GFA was approximately RMB7,999 per sqm, with 79% of the land reserves located in first- and second-tier cities[28]. - The time from land acquisition to positive operation cash flow was shortened by an average of 2.1 months to 9.5 months, with overall operational efficiency accelerated by 14%[30]. - The company achieved a cost reduction of RMB100 per sqm and a construction cost saving rate of 4.3% through optimized cost management and centralized procurement, with key category prices decreasing by over 6%[30]. Asset Management and Liabilities - The Group incurred a net foreign exchange loss of RMB74 million during the period, a significant decrease from RMB693 million in the corresponding period of 2023[49]. - Contract liabilities as of June 30, 2024, amounted to RMB166,660 million, an increase of RMB6,847 million or 4.3% from RMB159,813 million as of December 31, 2023[46][48]. - The Group's interest expenses for the period amounted to RMB3,698 million, a decrease of RMB242 million from RMB3,940 million in the corresponding period of 2023, with a weighted average interest cost of 4.0%, down 40 bps from 4.4%[44]. - The Group's total equity as of June 30, 2024, was RMB 108,861,907, down from RMB 113,935,108, reflecting a decrease of about 4.46%[101]. Share Options and Employee Incentives - A total of 14,880,000 share options have been granted under the 2016 Share Option Scheme, with varying exercise prices and conditions[57]. - The company has a structured share option plan to incentivize key executives and align their interests with shareholders[59]. - The total number of share options outstanding at the beginning of the period was 14,880,000, with no options granted, exercised, cancelled, or lapsed during the six months ended June 30, 2024[69]. - The 2023 Share Option Scheme was adopted on June 16, 2023, to provide incentives and/or rewards, expiring on June 15, 2033, with approximately 9 years remaining[67]. - The total number of share options outstanding at the end of the period was 3,470,000[72]. Future Outlook and Strategic Focus - Looking ahead to the second half of 2024, the company aims to focus on "refinements + advances" to enhance sales management and achieve sales targets through flexible marketing strategies[33]. - The company plans to ensure cash flow safety by promoting earlier cash collection and reducing expenditures, while enhancing capital management capabilities[33]. - The company is focusing on strategic acquisitions and partnerships to enhance its market position and drive growth[71]. - The company plans to continue its market expansion efforts, focusing on increasing its equity investments[105].

房地产/房地产开发 开 源 证 券 证 券 研 究 报 告 港股公司信息更新报告 公 司 研 究 绿城中国（03900.HK） 2024 年 09 月 10 日 土储重仓核心城市，销售均价显著提升 ——港股公司信息更新报告 投资评级：买入（维持） 日期 2024/9/9 | --- | --- | |-------------------------|-------------| | | | | 当前股价 ( 港元 ) | 6.170 | | 一年最高最低 ( 港元 ) | 9.890/4.940 | | 总市值 ( 亿港元 ) | 156.22 | | 流通市值 ( 亿港元 ) | 156.22 | | 总股本 ( 亿股 ) | 25.32 | | 流通港股 ( 亿股 ) | 25.32 | | 近 3 个月换手率 (%) | 18.59 | 齐东（分析师） 杜致远（联系人） qidong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522010002 duzhiyuan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790124070064 土储重仓核心城市，销售均价显著提升，维持"买入"评级 绿城中国发布 2024 年 8 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [2][5]. Core Insights - The company's sales performance shows resilience, with total sales amounting to 165.6 billion yuan for the first eight months of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%. Self-owned sales were 104.5 billion yuan, down 11.4%, while entrusted sales increased by 16.4% to 61.1 billion yuan [1]. - The company is focusing on core cities for investment, with 80% of sales in first and second-tier cities. The sales return rate is high at 103%, supporting cash flow and reinvestment [1]. - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to 3.34 billion, 3.92 billion, and 4.43 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.2%, 17.2%, and 13.1% [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 69.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.1%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.045 billion yuan, down 19.6% [1]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2024 was 13.1%, a decrease of 4.3 percentage points year-on-year, but consistent with the full-year gross margin of 2023 [1]. - The company’s total contracted sales for the first half of 2024 were 126.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.7% year-on-year, with self-invested sales ranking sixth in the industry [1]. Land Acquisition and Financial Health - The company added 15 new projects in the first half of 2024, with an equity land acquisition amount of 15.4 billion yuan, expected to generate a new value of 33.3 billion yuan [1]. - The company has maintained a healthy financial position, with a total interest-bearing debt financing cost of 4.0%, down 40 basis points year-on-year, and a short-term interest-bearing debt ratio of 23.8% [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Greentown China (03900 HK) with a target price of HKD 9 [1] Core Views - Greentown China's revenue grew by 22 1% YoY in H1 2024, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 19 7% YoY [1] - The company's gross margin faced temporary pressure, dropping to 13 1% in H1 2024, down 4 3 percentage points YoY [1] - Greentown China adopted a cautious investment strategy, with land acquisition rights ratio increasing to 84% in H1 2024 [1] - The company improved its dividend payout ratio to 20%-50% and optimized its financing structure, reducing average financing costs to 3 9% in H1 2024 [1] Financial Performance - Greentown China achieved operating income of RMB 69 56 billion in H1 2024, with core net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 27 5% YoY to RMB 4 95 billion [1] - The company's total land reserve value reached RMB 534 8 billion, with an average floor price of RMB 7,999 per square meter [1] - Self-invested project sales amounted to RMB 85 4 billion in H1 2024, with a sales rights ratio of 71% [1] Strategic Focus - Greentown China focused on high-tier cities, with core second-tier cities accounting for 94% of new land acquisition value [1] - The company's land acquisition strategy emphasized quality projects, with 79% of total land reserves located in first and second-tier cities [1] - Greentown China's product quality and reputation remain industry-leading, supporting its strategy of deepening core city operations [1] Future Outlook - The report forecasts Greentown China's EPS for 2024-2026 at RMB 1 31, 1 46, and 1 46 respectively [1] - The company's sales stability and operational efficiency are expected to improve, helping it navigate the industry downturn [1] - Greentown China's gross margin is projected to recover as projects acquired in 2022-2023 are delivered [1]

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/房地产 证券研究报告 绿城中国（3900）公司半年报点评 2024 年 08 月 28 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------|------------------| | 股票数据 | | | 0[8T月ab2l7e日_S收t盘o价ck（In港f元o]） | 5.82 | | 52 周股价波动（港元） | 4.618-9.927 | | 总股本/流通A股（亿股） | 25.32 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿港元） | 147.4/147.4 | | 相关研究 | | | [《T绿a城bl中e_国R年e报p点o评rtI_n营fo收] | 和归母净利双增， | | 财务结构稳健》2024.3.26 | | 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------|-------|-------|--------| | 恒生指数对比 ...