Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The real estate market has shown a significant decline in sales, with a year-on-year decrease in sales area of 8.7% and sales amount down by 12.6% for the year 2025 [4][13] - The trend of "price for volume" is evident, with the average selling price of commercial housing dropping by 4.3% year-on-year [4][13] - New construction area has decreased for four consecutive years, with a decline of 20.4% in 2025 [5][20] - The total investment in real estate development has also seen a significant drop of 17.2% year-on-year [6][24] - The cash flow pressure on real estate companies remains high, with a 13.4% year-on-year decrease in funds available to developers [6][26] Summary by Sections Sales Data - In 2025, the total sales area of commercial housing was 881 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 8.7% [4][13] - The sales amount reached 8.39 trillion yuan, down 12.6% year-on-year [4][13] - December 2025 saw a sharp decline in sales area and amount, with year-on-year decreases of 15.6% and 23.6%, respectively [4][13] Construction Data - The new construction area for 2025 was 588 million square meters, reflecting a 20.4% decrease [5][20] - The completion area was 603 million square meters, down 18.1% year-on-year [5][20] Investment Data - Real estate development investment totaled 8.28 trillion yuan in 2025, a decrease of 17.2% [6][24] - The funds available to real estate developers were 9.31 trillion yuan, down 13.4% year-on-year [6][26] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include those with strong credit and good urban fundamentals, such as Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and China Resources Land [7][34] - Companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery are also highlighted, such as Longfor Group and New City Holdings [7][34] - Quality property management firms with strong service standards are recommended, including China Resources Mixc Life and Greentown Service [7][34]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant reduction in the minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans to 30%, aimed at stimulating the commercial real estate market and facilitating inventory reduction [5][6] - The current inventory of commercial properties is high, with 141 million square meters of commercial space available for sale as of November 2025, including 52 million square meters of office space [6] - The report anticipates further policy easing to support the commercial real estate sector, as the current measures may have limited impact due to existing disadvantages in loan terms compared to residential mortgages [7][8] Summary by Sections Market Trends - The report indicates a downward trend in the commercial real estate market, with rising vacancy rates and declining rental prices [7] Policy Changes - The People's Bank of China has introduced measures to lower the down payment ratio for commercial property loans, which is expected to ease initial funding pressures for buyers [5][8] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: 1. Companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery: China Resources Land, New World Development, Longfor Group [8] 2. Firms with strong credit profiles and good understanding of customer demand: Greentown China, China Merchants Shekou, China Overseas Land & Investment [8] 3. High-quality property management companies under the "Good House, Good Service" policy: China Resources Mixc Lifestyle, Greentown Service, Poly Property [8]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the personnel change at Greentown China, with Lai Shengchang stepping down as the East China Regional General Manager and taking on the role of Chairman and General Manager at Greentown Life Technology Group [1] - Pan Siyuan, the former Deputy General Manager of the Zhejiang Region, has been appointed as the new East China Regional General Manager, marking a significant internal promotion of a young professional manager [2][4] - Pan Siyuan has over 20 years of experience in the Hong Kong-funded real estate sector and has previously worked on projects for Greentown, which positions him well for his new role [3][4] Group 2 - During his tenure as the General Manager of the South Zhejiang Region, Pan Siyuan successfully managed projects in cities like Yiwu, achieving over 10 billion in sales [4] - The East China region, particularly Shanghai, is a strategic area for Greentown China, where they have launched several projects under Lai Shengchang's leadership [4] - The competitive landscape in Shanghai has intensified, with many developers increasing their efforts, leading to challenges for Greentown China in maintaining its market position [5] Group 3 - In the first 11 months of 2025, Greentown China's sales in the Shanghai market reached 12.279 billion, ranking 7th, while top competitors achieved over 28 billion [7] - The sales performance of Greentown's new projects, such as the "land king" project Greentown Yilou, has been disappointing, with a sales rate of only 36.5% shortly after launch [8] - The sales situation for another project, Huangpu ONE, is also underwhelming, with a current sales rate of less than 15% for the latest batch of units [12]

Core Insights - The leadership change in Greentown China’s East China region is seen as a strategic move to enhance product strength and regional experience integration amid increasing competition in the Shanghai market [2][4][9] Group 1: Leadership Change - Lai Shengchang has been appointed as the chairman and general manager of Greentown Living Technology Group, while Pan Siyuan, previously the deputy general manager of the Zhejiang region, has taken over as the general manager of the East China region [1][2] - Pan Siyuan, born in 1986, has a successful track record in managing high-demand projects, indicating a significant internal promotion of young professional managers within Greentown [1][5] Group 2: Market Challenges - The Shanghai real estate market is facing dual challenges of market differentiation and profit pressure, with high-end residential sales showing significant structural differences [4][6] - Greentown's current projects in Shanghai, such as the Green City Yilu, are experiencing pressure, with a low sales rate of less than 50% for recent offerings [4][6] Group 3: Strategic Focus - Greentown aims to balance high-priced land project profitability with sales rates, which has become a core challenge for the company [4][7] - The company has a robust project reserve in Shanghai, but activating existing projects and ensuring profitability from high-priced land remains a critical issue [4][6] Group 4: Organizational Adjustments - The leadership change is part of a broader organizational restructuring aimed at responding proactively to market changes, with a new structure established to enhance risk management and focus on core city operations [7][9] - Greentown's total contract sales target for 2025 is set at 251.9 billion yuan, with significant contributions from the East China region [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent leadership change at Greentown in the East China region, with Pan Siyuan replacing Lai Shengchang, is expected to impact the company's strategy in the competitive Shanghai real estate market, particularly in addressing sales challenges for high-priced properties [1][6]. Group 1: Leadership Change - Pan Siyuan has been promoted to General Manager of Greentown's East China region, previously serving as Deputy General Manager for Zhejiang [1][6]. - Lai Shengchang, who held the position since 2021, will transition to Chairman and General Manager of Greentown Life Technology Group [1][6]. Group 2: Market Performance - Greentown has experienced significant success in Shanghai, notably with the sale of the "Chao Ming Dong Fang" project, which set a record with a floor price of 131,000 per square meter after a 30% premium [1][6]. - The project launched 120 residential units in May 2025, achieving full sales on the opening day with 191 effective customer registrations [1][6]. Group 3: Sales Challenges - In contrast, the "Yi Lu" project in Pudong faced difficulties, with only 121 out of 255 units sold by January 2026, resulting in a sales rate of 47.5% [2][7]. - The "Yi Lu" project was acquired at a floor price of 71,400 per square meter with a 40% premium, but failed to replicate the success of "Chao Ming Dong Fang" [2][7]. Group 4: Future Prospects - Greentown has acquired another high-priced plot in Hongkou District, named "Chao Ming Wai Tan," with a floor price of 126,600 per square meter and a premium of 46.3%, but it has not yet launched [9]. - The market environment for "Chao Ming Wai Tan" is expected to be more challenging, raising concerns about its sales performance [4][9]. - Pan Siyuan's ability to leverage his experience from the Zhejiang market to enhance product offerings in Shanghai will be crucial for addressing the sales challenges of these high-value properties [5][9].

Core Viewpoint - The "2025 China Real Estate Product Power TOP100 Release Conference" highlighted the importance of product innovation and quality in the real estate industry, emphasizing a comprehensive approach to building "good houses" that meet customer needs and local adaptations [1][24]. Group 1: Industry Trends and Insights - The real estate industry is entering a critical phase focused on quality enhancement, where each company has its own understanding of what constitutes a "good house" [5]. - The conference featured discussions on the new connotations of good housing and the collaborative efforts required to enhance product vitality in the industry [3][5]. Group 2: Key Standards and Frameworks - China Electric Power Construction Group has established a comprehensive "Good House" brand standard that includes six dimensions: safety, health, green, wisdom, craftsmanship, and aesthetics, with 165 quality control parameters [6][7]. - The standard emphasizes a systematic approach to product development, integrating customer insights and local adaptations to ensure quality and efficiency [8][13]. Group 3: Customer Insights and Needs - Companies are increasingly focusing on deep customer insights to inform product standards, moving from basic needs to more complex emotional and cultural requirements [12][20]. - The core customer demands have evolved to include not only basic functionality but also quality of life and emotional fulfillment, indicating a shift in how housing is perceived [12][20]. Group 4: Challenges and Solutions - The industry faces challenges such as irrational competition and the need for better collaboration across the supply chain to meet quality standards [18][20]. - Companies are adopting a long-term perspective to navigate these challenges, emphasizing the importance of aligning product offerings with genuine customer needs and organizational capabilities [21].

绿城华东新舵手到位。 日前，绿城中国华东区域完成"换帅"。原总经理赖圣场卸任，调任旗下绿城生活科技集团董事长、总经 理。其职务由原浙江区域副总经理兼浙南片区总经理潘思远接任。 21世纪经济报道记者获悉，潘思远生于1986年，曾在绿城浙江区域担任副总经理，并成功操盘凤起潮鸣 等热销项目。据知情人士透露，潘思远此次"连升几级"，是绿城中国内部提拔年轻职业经理人的一次突 破性举动。 至于赖圣场的职位调整，据绿城中国相关人士透露，此次任命属于平级调动，其一直想回浙江工作，方 便照顾家人。 绿城集团相关人士指出，伴随政策迭代更新，消费者购房决策周期有所延长，选房更趋理性，项目进入 持销期已成为房地产行业的常态化、合理化现状，这也是行业转型阶段的普遍特征。 绿城上海的储备项目较为充裕，除绿城·逸庐、沁香园等在售项目外，北外滩项目已进入建设阶段。但 如何激活现有项目去化、保障高价地项目盈利，也是绿城面临的重要挑战。 考验破局能力 绿城选择潘思远掌舵华东区域，核心逻辑在于其在浙南市场的标杆性操盘业绩与豪宅开发经验。 潘思远于2021年加入绿城，历任浙西区域金衢片区总、浙江区域副总经理；2024-2025年担任浙南项目 群总经 ...

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.8%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 4.4%, and the ChiNext Index went up by 3.9% this week [1] - The real estate sector (Shenwan) saw a rise of 5.1% [1] - The top five stocks by percentage increase were Chengjian Development (+34.5%), Yingxin Development (+22.0%), Shangshi Development (+20.8%), *ST Rongkong (+19.7%), and *ST Yangguang (+16.0%) [1] - The bottom five stocks by percentage decrease included Hainan Airport (-7.9%), Guangming Real Estate (-7.2%), Hezhan Energy (-5.5%), Shoukai Shares (-5.0%), and China Wuyi (-2.0%) [1] Real Estate Data Tracking - New homes: In the week of January 3-9, 42 key cities recorded a total transaction of 1.37 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 46.7% [1] - For January up to the week of January 9, new home transactions totaled 1.55 million square meters, down 30.1% month-on-month and 46.6% year-on-year [1] - Second-hand homes: In the week of January 3-9, 21 key cities saw a total transaction of 2.06 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 25.4% [1] - For January up to the week of January 9, second-hand home transactions totaled 2.14 million square meters, down 16.1% month-on-month and 23.9% year-on-year [1] Industry News - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, held a meeting to implement a package of fiscal and financial policies to boost domestic demand, including expanding the scope of public rental housing [2] - The central bank emphasized the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the integration of incremental and stock policy effects [2] - Local policies include Shanghai's efforts to improve fair competition review mechanisms and Henan's support for local governments to issue special bonds for purchasing existing homes for affordable housing [2] - In Shenyang, the down payment for housing has been reduced to 15% until the end of 2026, while Chengdu extended its housing mutual assistance policy until the end of 2026 [2] Company Announcements - In December 2025, the sales figures for major real estate companies were as follows: Poly Development at 12.16 billion yuan (-18.9%), China Merchants Shekou at 25.84 billion yuan (-14.5%), and New Town Holdings at 1.35 billion yuan (-57.8%) [2] - China Overseas Development issued bonds with a 3-year term at an interest rate of 1.60%-2.60% and a 5-year term at 1.80%-2.80% [2] Personnel Changes - Vanke A's Yu Liang retired due to age, resigning from his positions as director and executive vice president [3] Investment Analysis - The real estate sector remains a crucial asset allocation and investment direction for Chinese households, with stable housing prices being significant for economic circulation [3] - The 20th Central Committee's emphasis on promoting high-quality development in real estate suggests potential policy support [3] - High-quality residential properties may see a development wave due to policy guidance and changes in supply-demand structure [3] - The Hong Kong private residential market sentiment is gradually recovering, indicating a potential revaluation for Hong Kong developers [3] - The sector is rated "positive," with recommended companies including China Resources Land, China Merchants Shekou, New Town Holdings, and others [3]

Core Insights - The real estate market in China shows signs of recovery as 13 out of 18 reported companies achieved month-on-month sales growth in December 2025, with notable performances from companies like China Overseas Land & Investment and China Resources Land [1][2][3] Group 1: Sales Performance - 72.22% of the 18 real estate companies reported month-on-month sales growth as of January 12, 2026, with five companies achieving record monthly sales [1] - China Resources Land led with a monthly sales figure of 410 billion yuan, followed by China Overseas at 398.32 billion yuan and China Merchants Shekou at 258.44 billion yuan [2] - China Overseas achieved a three-month consecutive sales increase, with December sales reaching 398.32 billion yuan, supported by various high-end and affordable housing projects [2][3] Group 2: Yearly Sales Data - Poly Developments topped the 2025 sales chart with 2530.3 billion yuan, despite a 21.67% decline from 2024, maintaining a lead over China Overseas [4] - Other companies in the billion-yuan sales club include China Resources Land, China Merchants Shekou, and Greentown China, with sales figures of 2336 billion yuan, 1960.09 billion yuan, and 1534 billion yuan respectively [4] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The recovery in sales is expected to stabilize market confidence and alleviate buyer hesitation, contributing to a positive growth outlook for the real estate sector [3] - Companies like Sunac China and Country Garden, despite facing operational challenges, remain in the top sales rankings, with 368.4 billion yuan and 330 billion yuan in sales respectively [5] Group 4: Land Acquisition Strategies - Leading companies are focusing on land acquisition in first and second-tier cities, with China Overseas reporting 60.6% of its sales from major cities [6][7] - Poly Developments has shifted its land acquisition strategy, increasing investments in Shanghai while reducing its presence in Beijing, with significant spending in Guangzhou [6][7]

Core Insights - The real estate market in China shows signs of recovery as 13 out of 18 reported companies achieved month-on-month sales growth in December 2025, with notable performances from companies like China Overseas Land & Investment and China Resources Land [1][3][4] - Poly Developments maintained its leading position in annual sales for 2025, despite a year-on-year decline, with a total sales figure of 2530.3 billion yuan, outperforming China Overseas Land by 17.98 billion yuan [1][6] - The trend of increasing sales among major real estate firms is expected to stabilize market confidence and alleviate buyer concerns, contributing to a positive outlook for the industry [4][6] Sales Performance - In December 2025, China Resources Land led with sales of 410 billion yuan, followed by China Overseas Land at 398.32 billion yuan and China Merchants Shekou at 258.44 billion yuan [3] - The sales growth rates for December 2025 were significant, with Sunac China experiencing a 163.39% increase due to a low base in November, while other firms like China Overseas Land and China Resources Land also reported substantial growth rates of 79.14% and 78.26% respectively [4] Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape among top real estate firms has stabilized, with Poly Developments focusing heavily on the Guangzhou market, investing 648.24 billion yuan from 2023 to 2025, compared to 265.02 billion yuan in Beijing and 359.27 billion yuan in Shanghai [1][9] - The second-tier firms (500 billion to 1 trillion yuan) averaged sales of 646.4 billion yuan, while third-tier firms (300 billion to 500 billion yuan) averaged 381.3 billion yuan, indicating a diverse recovery across different company sizes [7] Strategic Adjustments - Major firms are adjusting their land acquisition strategies, with a focus on first and second-tier cities. For instance, China Overseas Land's sales in major cities accounted for 60.6% of its total sales, while Poly Developments has also shifted its focus towards Shanghai, increasing its land acquisition there significantly [8][9] - The overall trend indicates that while some firms are facing challenges, others are leveraging their strong market positions and operational capabilities to navigate the current landscape effectively [6][7]