Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the real estate industry in Shijiazhuang for the period of January to October 2025 Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of real estate in improving people's living standards and promoting high-quality development, indicating a long-term positive direction for the industry [3][12] - In the short term, increased supply in core cities is expected to support new home sales, while second-hand home transactions are anticipated to maintain a certain scale, although prices may continue to face pressure [3][4] Sales Performance Summary - The top 10 real estate companies in Shijiazhuang achieved a total sales amount of 35.598 billion yuan, with the threshold for entry being 657 million yuan. Shijiazhuang Chengfa Investment Group led with sales of 15.112 billion yuan, followed by Poly Development at 6.360 billion yuan and Greentown China at 6.300 billion yuan [4][5] - The total sales area for the top 10 companies reached 2.2902 million square meters, with Shijiazhuang Chengfa Investment Group also leading in this category at 1.1397 million square meters [4][5] - The top 20 projects in Shijiazhuang recorded a total sales amount of 19.180 billion yuan, with the highest-performing project being Chengfa Investment's Yunhefu, achieving sales of 2.556 billion yuan [7][8] Market Trends - The average transaction price for commercial residential properties in Shijiazhuang was 14,707 yuan per square meter in October 2025 [21] - The most significant proportion of transactions in the residential market was for properties sized between 120-160 square meters, accounting for 41.47% of total transactions [22] - The report highlights a focus on urban renewal and the promotion of high-quality housing, aligning with national policies aimed at improving living conditions and urban infrastructure [10][15][16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3][4] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that real estate is a crucial asset allocation and investment direction for Chinese households, and stabilizing housing prices is significant for facilitating economic circulation. The policy environment is expected to strengthen further, promoting high-quality development in the real estate sector. There is an anticipated wave of development for high-quality residential properties due to policy guidance and changes in supply-demand structure [4][48]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.1%, while the real estate sector (Shenwan) declined by 0.2% during the week [4][7]. - In the new housing market, 154 million square meters were sold across 42 key cities from November 1 to November 7, representing a 38.7% decrease from the previous week and a 46.7% year-on-year decline [4][13]. - The second-hand housing market saw 191 million square meters sold in 21 key cities during the same period, reflecting a 7.6% decrease week-on-week and a 26.7% year-on-year decline [4][28]. Data Tracking - For new housing, the cumulative sales in November (up to the week of November 7) were 154 million square meters, showing a 195.2% increase month-on-month but a 46.7% decrease year-on-year [4][17]. - In the second-hand housing market, cumulative sales for November reached 191 million square meters, indicating an 895.9% increase month-on-month but a 26.7% decrease year-on-year [4][31]. Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued a plan to promote the development of smart cities, aiming to establish over 50 fully digital transformation cities by the end of 2027 [4][45]. - Shenzhen is supporting the conversion of idle non-residential properties into affordable rental housing, while Hunan's Pingjiang County is implementing a comprehensive approach to selling existing homes [4][45]. Company Announcements - In October, major real estate companies reported significant declines in sales, with China Overseas Development at 186.6 billion (down 55.1% year-on-year) and Poly Development at 211.2 billion (down 50.1% year-on-year) [4][48].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for new homes and indicates a significant decline in second-hand home transactions year-on-year [2][33]. Core Insights - The real estate sector has seen a 0.2% decline in the week of November 3 to November 7, 2025, ranking 24th among 31 primary industry sectors [9][30]. - New home transaction volume in 20 monitored cities decreased by 38% year-on-year, with a total area of 159 million square meters sold in the week, averaging 22.7 million square meters per day [21][24]. - Second-hand home transactions in 11 monitored cities also fell by 29% year-on-year, with a total area of 186 million square meters sold in the week, averaging 26.6 million square meters per day [24][29]. Industry Overview - **Basic Data**: The real estate sector comprises 107 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 1,233.623 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 1,183.334 billion yuan [3]. - **Relative Index Performance**: The absolute performance over 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is -1.6%, 16.8%, and -8.9% respectively, while the relative performance is -3.3%, -5.3%, and -23.3% [4]. Policy Developments - Local policies include the implementation of "current housing sales" in Pingjiang County, Hunan, and the promotion of industrialized construction in Guangzhou, aiming for a total output value of 500 billion yuan by 2030 [14][15]. Sales Performance - The report highlights a significant drop in both new and second-hand home sales, with new home sales down 31% week-on-week and second-hand home sales down 6% week-on-week [21][24]. - Cumulative data shows that new home sales in 20 cities have decreased by 11% year-to-date, while second-hand home sales in 11 cities have increased by 7% year-to-date [21][24]. Financing Trends - Most bond issuances in the week were by local state-owned enterprises, with Guang'an Holdings issuing the largest scale of 2 billion yuan [30][31]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong product differentiation and stable rental income from quality commercial real estate, highlighting firms such as Beike-W, Greentown China, and China Resources Land as potential investment opportunities [33].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate stocks have shown signs of recovery, with significant increases in share prices for several companies, despite ongoing challenges in the market [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the latest report, Greentown China (03900) rose by 8.36% to HKD 8.94, R&F Properties (02777) increased by 5.66% to HKD 0.56, New World Development (01030) gained 4.04% to HKD 2.32, and Shimao Group (00813) climbed 3.85% to HKD 0.27 [1] - According to CRIC, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a sales turnover of CNY 253 billion in October 2025, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.1% but a year-on-year decrease of 41.9% [1] Group 2: Sales Performance - Cumulatively, the top 100 real estate companies reported a sales turnover of CNY 25,766.6 billion, which represents a year-on-year decline of 16%, with the rate of decline widening by 4.2 percentage points compared to the first nine months of the year [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley suggests that the large number of second-hand homes on the market may continue to suppress market sentiment, exerting pressure on real estate sales and prices for the remainder of the year [1] - CITIC Securities reports that the supply and demand situation in the real estate market has improved, indicating that adjustments have been sufficient, and forecasts a potential stabilization in the market in 2026 [1] - CITIC Securities also believes that 2026 could be a critical year for real estate companies to repair their balance sheets, with some firms possibly reaching a long-term profitability bottom [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a recovery in the Chinese real estate sector, with notable stock price increases for several companies, including Greentown China, R&F Properties, New World Development, and Shimao Group [1] - According to CRIC, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a sales turnover of 253 billion yuan in October 2025, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.1% but a year-on-year decrease of 41.9% [1] - Cumulative performance shows that the top 100 real estate companies recorded a total sales turnover of 25,766.6 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 16%, with the decline rate widening by 4.2 percentage points compared to the first nine months of the year [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley suggests that the large number of second-hand homes on the market may continue to suppress market sentiment, exerting pressure on real estate sales and prices for the remainder of the year [1] - CITIC Securities reports an improvement in the supply and demand situation in the real estate market, indicating that adjustments have been sufficient, and forecasts a potential stabilization in the market by 2026 [1] - CITIC Securities believes that 2026 could be a critical year for real estate companies to repair their balance sheets, with some firms potentially reaching the bottom of their profit cycles, particularly those with good city layouts and valuable investment properties [1]

Group 1 - Hong Kong property stocks experienced a rise, with notable increases in several companies' stock prices [1] - Greentown China saw a significant increase of 9.09%, reaching a latest price of 9.000 and a total market capitalization of 22.856 billion [2] - Other companies such as Oceanwide Holdings and R&F Properties also reported substantial gains of 8.65% and 7.55% respectively [2] Group 2 - Shimao Group increased by 5.77%, with a latest price of 0.275 and a market cap of 23.66 billion [2] - Companies like Jianfa International Group, China Resources Land, and China Jinmao rose over 4%, indicating a positive trend in the sector [1][2] - Year-to-date performance shows mixed results, with some companies like Oceanwide Holdings and R&F Properties down by 54.25% and 58.09% respectively [2]

Group 1 - Hong Kong real estate stocks showed strong performance on November 10, with Greentown China rising over 9% [2] - R&F Properties increased by more than 7% [2] - Shimao Group saw an increase of over 5% [2]

Core Insights - Poly has surpassed Greentown in land acquisition in Xi'an, becoming the top real estate company in terms of land spending for the first ten months of 2023, with an investment of 50.58 billion yuan [1][2] - The land market in Xi'an has seen significant changes, with a total of three plots exceeding 2 billion yuan in transaction value this year [4][12] Group 1: Land Acquisition Rankings - The top three companies in land acquisition in Xi'an for January to October 2023 are Poly Development (50.58 billion yuan), Greentown China (45.9 billion yuan), and China Merchants Shekou (23.1 billion yuan) [1][2] - Poly's recent acquisition of 122 acres in the Qinglongsi area for 23.411 billion yuan has contributed significantly to its lead [2][3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - In the first ten months of 2023, 13 out of the top 20 land-acquiring companies in Xi'an are state-owned enterprises, while 7 are private enterprises [3] - The high-value land transactions are primarily driven by large-scale plots, all exceeding 100 acres, which are typically acquired by major state-owned enterprises [5][6] Group 3: Future Expectations - The land market in Xi'an is anticipated to see a revival in December, similar to the previous year, with expectations of multiple high-quality land plots being made available [11][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that policy measures are being driven by fundamental economic pressures, suggesting that the current policy intensity may exceed that of 2008 and 2014, and is still in progress [4]. - Real estate serves as an early-cycle indicator, making it a key economic barometer for investment [4]. - The competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private companies performing well in land acquisition and sales [4]. - The report continues to favor investments in first-tier and select second- and third-tier cities, which have shown better performance during sales rebounds [4]. - Supply-side policies, including land storage and management of idle land, are crucial areas to monitor, with first- and second-tier cities expected to benefit more [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Current Resident Price Expectations - According to the central bank's survey, the proportion of urban depositors who are pessimistic about housing prices has returned to levels seen in Q3 2024, with optimism below 10% [11]. - In Q3 2025, 9.1% of residents expect prices to rise, while 55.6% expect them to remain stable, and 23.5% anticipate a decline [11]. - The report notes that the "924" policy was introduced during a period of market pessimism, leading to a marginal improvement in confidence, but this has waned over time due to a lack of new policies [11]. 2. Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index decreased by 0.2% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.05 percentage points, ranking 24th among 31 Shenwan primary industries [2]. - New home sales in 30 cities totaled 134.6 million square meters, down 41.6% month-on-month and 47.2% year-on-year [2]. - Second-hand home sales in 14 sample cities totaled 190.2 million square meters, down 8.3% month-on-month and 28.0% year-on-year [34]. 3. Credit Bond Issuance - This week, 12 credit bonds from real estate companies were issued, totaling 10.25 billion yuan, an increase of 5.2 billion yuan from the previous week [3]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate-related stocks due to the ongoing policy-driven recovery and the potential for improved performance in quality real estate companies [4]. - Recommended stocks include major players in both H-shares and A-shares, as well as local state-owned enterprises and property management firms [4].

Core Insights - Greentown China Holdings Limited reported its operational data for the ten months ending October 31, 2025, highlighting significant sales performance in both self-invested and entrusted projects [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - In October 2025, Greentown Group achieved sales of 2,587 units, with a sales area of approximately 360,000 square meters, generating a sales amount of about RMB 12.2 billion, and an average selling price of approximately RMB 33,936 per square meter [1] - From January to October 2025, Greentown Group recorded a total contracted sales area of approximately 3.51 million square meters, with a total contracted sales amount of approximately RMB 120.4 billion, of which the equity amount attributable to Greentown Group was approximately RMB 78.8 billion [1] - As of October 31, 2025, there were cumulative signed subscription agreements not yet converted into sales contracts amounting to approximately RMB 3.4 billion, with an equity amount attributable to Greentown Group of approximately RMB 2.2 billion [1] Group 2: Entrusted Projects - In October 2025, Greentown Group's entrusted projects achieved a sales area of approximately 850,000 square meters, with a sales amount of approximately RMB 10.1 billion [1] - From January to October 2025, the cumulative sales area for entrusted projects was approximately 6.18 million square meters, with a total sales amount of approximately RMB 80.7 billion [1] Group 3: Total Contracted Sales - For the ten months ending October 31, 2025, Greentown Group achieved a total contracted sales area of approximately 9.69 million square meters, with a total contracted sales amount of approximately RMB 201.1 billion [1]