投资集中度超七成，其中央企投资保持领先，民企信心随市场筑 | | 2025年1-12月 ·中国房地产企 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 新增十地货值规模 | | | 排名 | 企业名称 | 新增土地货值 | | | | (亿元) | | 1 | 中海地产 | 2419.0 | | 2 | 招商蛇口 | 1769.9 | | 3 | 保利发展 | 1606. 0 | | 4 | 绿城中国 | 1300. 0 | | 5 | 求润量城 | 1243.2 | | 6 | 中国金茂 | 953.8 | | 7 | 越秀地产 | 855. 4 | | 8 | 建发房产 | 854. 6 | | 9 | 中旅投资 | 703. 2 | | 10 | 滨江集团 | 667.8 | | 11 | 中建智地 | 411. 7 | | 12 | 保利置业 | 350. 4 | | 13 | 武汉城建 | 330. 0 | | 14 | 象屿地产 | 295.9 | | 15 | 邦泰集团 | 293. 2 | | 16 | 国贸地产 | 269. 4 | | 17 | 胖发生团 | 750 1 | | 1 ...

Core Insights - The real estate market in China continues to stabilize, with 10 companies achieving over 100 billion yuan in sales for the year [4] - 24 companies reported year-on-year growth in performance, with some experiencing significant recovery [4] - Central and state-owned enterprises performed well overall, with 42% of them reporting performance growth [4] - Focus on quality housing and urban renewal has become a new priority, necessitating companies to enhance their internal capabilities [4] Sales Rankings - The top three companies by sales amount are: 1. Greentown China: 251.9 billion yuan 2. China Overseas Land & Investment: 239.2 billion yuan 3. Poly Developments: 232.8 billion yuan [3] - The top three companies by sales area are: 1. Greentown China: 12.08 million square meters 2. Poly Developments: 11.26 million square meters 3. China Overseas Land & Investment: 10.44 million square meters [3] Performance Overview - The overall market is characterized by a bottoming-out trend, with a total of 10 companies achieving over 100 billion yuan in sales [4] - A total of 24 companies saw their performance improve year-on-year, indicating a recovery in the sector [4] - Central and state-owned enterprises showed a strong performance, with 42% reporting growth [4] Strategic Focus - The emphasis on good housing and urban renewal is becoming increasingly important, prompting real estate companies to focus on improving their internal operations [4]

文/郭阳琛 站在南京西路商圈阿丽拉酒店的屋顶花园，上海市城市更新"名片"——张园映入眼帘。阿丽拉酒店由上 海四季酒店更新而来，如今已从单一酒店业态变为城市综合体，构建了融合"商务+休闲+度假"的复合 消费场景。 "全国住房城乡建设工作会议进一步强调'房地产仍有较大发展潜力'，未来城镇化带来的住房需求、城 市存量优化调整均具备空间。"中指研究院研报指出，"十五五"时期，全国城镇住房需求总量预计约为 49.8亿平方米。随着支持政策不断落地，房地产市场的发展潜力将有望被激活。 "《意见》被业内称为上海市'好房子'新规，从推出、试水到全面铺开，历经半年时间，且聚焦购房客 户最关注的户内附赠面积。"保利发展上海公司相关负责人告诉记者，对于增量市场而言，相关政策精 准提升客户对新规项目的认可度，有助于整体提升上海楼市产品品质，确保市场活跃度。 "好房子"建设起步成势 上述保利发展上海公司相关负责人进一步表示，对于存量市场而言，由于新规执行采用渐进式推进的方 式，因此给予房企充足的反应周期，能根据各自持销项目的产品力高低，及时调整销售价格和优惠政 策、提升流速，最大程度降低新规出台后入市项目的冲击，保持新房市场整体平稳。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a collective rise in Hong Kong property stocks, driven by recent policy adjustments that are expected to enhance market activity [1] - Key property stocks such as Agile Group, Shimao Group, and Ronshine China saw increases of 9%, while Greentown China rose nearly 8% and China Jinmao increased by 6.5% [2] - The latest report from CICC indicates that the Ministry of Finance announced a new policy on the value-added tax for personal housing sales, and Beijing adjusted its purchase and loan restrictions, which are seen as positive developments for the market [1] Group 2 - Despite the recent policy improvements, the fundamental trends in the real estate market remain weak, necessitating ongoing observation of the interaction between policy and market fundamentals [1] - CICC suggests a cautious approach towards the real estate development sector in the short to medium term, while prioritizing investment in core assets within the commercial real estate sector that offer absolute returns [1] - If policy measures exceed expectations, there may be a more positive outlook for the real estate development sector, particularly for companies with high profit certainty and strong operational trends [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of the real estate sector in national economic development and the need for proactive measures to stabilize market expectations [1] - Real estate stocks have shown significant gains, with Beike-W (02423) rising by 5.67% to HKD 44.34, Greentown China (03900) increasing by 4.89% to HKD 8.79, Shimao Group (00813) up by 4.71% to HKD 0.2, and R&F Properties (02777) climbing by 3.85% to HKD 0.54 [1] - The article from "Qiushi" magazine calls for maintaining policy strength that aligns with market expectations and avoiding piecemeal approaches that could lead to a standoff between the market and policies [1] Group 2 - Everbright Securities indicates that the article stabilizes expectations and anticipates stronger policy measures by 2026 [1] - GF Securities notes that the recent economic work conference's weak stance on stabilizing real estate is significant for enhancing expectations regarding asset price stability, suggesting that policy strength and sustainability will continue to increase [1]

Policy News - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued opinions on improving housing quality, aiming for significant progress by 2030 in housing standards, design, materials, construction, and operation levels [1] - The policy emphasizes the construction of quality affordable housing and the transformation of old houses into "good houses" [1] Tax Policy - Starting January 1, 2026, individuals selling homes purchased for less than two years will be subject to a 3% value-added tax, while those selling homes purchased for two years or more will be exempt from this tax [2] Financial Stability - The People's Bank of China plans to enhance the foundational system for real estate credit, focusing on the implementation of financial policies to support the stable development of the real estate market [3] Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) - The China Securities Regulatory Commission announced the pilot program for commercial real estate REITs, which will focus on generating stable cash flows through asset-backed securities [4] Regional Development - Shenzhen's "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-quality real estate development, targeting affordable housing and improved commodity housing to address housing issues for new citizens, youth, and migrant workers [5] Market Trends - In 2025, land sales revenue in Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou is projected to exceed 100 billion yuan, with Beijing's land sales amounting to approximately 142.7 billion yuan, a decrease of about 8% from the previous year [6] - Four major real estate companies, including Poly Developments and China Overseas, are expected to achieve sales exceeding 200 billion yuan in 2025 [7] Company News - Vanke plans to hold a meeting to discuss the extension of a domestic bond repayment, proposing to delay the principal repayment date by one year [9] - Country Garden has set December 30, 2025, as the effective date for its debt restructuring plan, which has been approved by the Hong Kong High Court [10] - CIFI Holdings announced the successful completion of its overseas debt restructuring, reducing its debt by approximately 38 billion yuan [11] - Longfor Group reported significant progress in its domestic debt restructuring, with over 62% of its remaining bonds being addressed through various options [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the positive performance of Chinese real estate stocks following a publication in "Qiushi" magazine, which emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the real estate market and maintaining strong policy support to manage market expectations [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Beike-W (02423) increased by 5.67%, reaching HKD 44.34 [1] - Greentown China (03900) rose by 4.89%, reaching HKD 8.79 [1] - Shimao Group (00813) saw a rise of 4.71%, reaching HKD 0.2 [1] - R&F Properties (02777) increased by 3.85%, reaching HKD 0.54 [1] Group 2: Policy Insights - The article discusses a publication in "Qiushi" magazine that stresses the critical role of real estate in national economic development and the need for proactive measures to shorten adjustment periods and stabilize market fluctuations [1] - It is emphasized that policy measures should be robust and meet market expectations, avoiding piecemeal approaches that could lead to a standoff between the market and policy [1] Group 3: Analyst Commentary - Everbright Securities notes that the article aims to stabilize expectations, with hopes for increased policy support by 2026 [1] - GF Securities released a report indicating that the recent economic work conference's weak stance on stabilizing real estate is significant for strengthening expectations around asset price stability, suggesting that policy strength and sustainability will continue to improve [1]

从销售结构看，头部房企优势依然明显。保利发展控股集团股份有限公司（以下简称"保利发展"）、绿 城中国控股有限公司、招商局蛇口工业区控股股份有限公司（以下简称"招商蛇口"）、杭州滨江房产集 团股份有限公司（以下简称"滨江集团"）等企业的销售额均超过千亿元。 中指研究院日前发布的数据显示，2025年销售额超千亿元的房企共10家，头部企业销售规模保持韧性， 核心城市项目仍是主要支撑。 上海易居房地产研究院副院长严跃进向《证券日报》记者表示，近年来，多地在供地端持续优化出让机 制，土地供应呈现出"控量提质"的特征。一方面，地方政府不断提升供地精准度，部分城市对配建公共 服务设施的项目给予容积率奖励，另有城市通过支持土地出让金分期缴纳，缓解房企资金压力。另一方 面，围绕"好房子"建设导向，各地加大低容积率、可开发性较强地块的投放力度，优质地块供应明显增 加，房企竞拍积极性提升，高溢价成交案例增多。 展望未来，严跃进表示，2026年住宅市场有望迎来一批在区位、品质和功能上更具竞争力的"好房子"项 目，核心城市新房产品结构将进一步优化，具备持续开发能力与稳健经营能力的头部房企，有望保持竞 争优势。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

2026年翩然而至。回顾2025年，房企销售哪家强？ 岁末年初，中指研究院、克而瑞深度咨询·普睿数智研究中心、亿翰智库三大机构分别发布销售额排行榜榜单， 2025年，保利发展蝉联销冠，与中海地产、华润置地、招商蛇口、绿城中国位居前五位，而万科跌出前五。 虽然2025年房企整体业绩延续筑底态势，但可喜的是，部分企业业绩呈现出回暖。据克而瑞深度咨询·普睿数智研 究中心统计，2025年累计业绩同比增长的房企占比为24%，其中同比增幅大于30%的企业数量占到12家。 保利发展蝉联销冠，金茂晋位、万科跌出前五 根据中指研究院和亿翰智库发布的百强房企销售榜单（全口径销售额）显示，保利发展、绿城中国的销售额为 2530亿元和2519亿元，分别位居冠军和亚军。中海地产销售额为2512亿元，华润置地销售额为2336亿元，分别位 居第三位和第四位，招商蛇口以1960亿元的销售额位居第五名。 | 排名 | ग्रह के बाद में बाद में बाद में बाद में बाद में बाद में बाद में बाद में बाद में बाद में कि में बाद में कि को में ब ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6] Core Views - The real estate market in 2025 is expected to remain sluggish, with new home transactions down by 15.8% year-on-year, while second-hand home transactions show a slight increase of 3.9% [11][22] - The report emphasizes that the policy environment is expected to become more stringent, similar to the conditions seen in 2008 and 2014, indicating that the current policy adjustments are still in progress [4] - The report suggests that the real estate sector serves as an early economic indicator, making it a valuable asset class for investment [4] - The competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private companies expected to perform better in land acquisition and sales [4] - The report highlights a focus on first-tier and select second-tier cities for investment, as these areas are likely to see better performance during market rebounds [4] Summary by Sections New Home Transactions - In 2025, the cumulative new home transaction volume in 30 sample cities reached 98.217 million square meters, a decrease of 15.8% year-on-year [11] - First-tier cities accounted for 26.191 million square meters, down 12.0%, while second-tier cities saw a decline of 15.6% to 49.040 million square meters [11] - December 2025 saw a significant drop in new home transactions, with a total of 9.679 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 40.0% [2][11] Second-Hand Home Transactions - The total area of second-hand home transactions in 2025 was 103.989 million square meters, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [22] - First-tier cities recorded a total of 43.287 million square meters in second-hand home transactions, up 4.4% year-on-year [22] Market Performance - The report notes that the real estate index decreased by 0.7% this week, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 0.10 percentage points, ranking 19th among 31 sectors [34] - The report identifies a total of 28 stocks that increased in value this week, while 82 stocks experienced declines [34] Credit Bond Issuance - In the week of December 29 to January 4, only one credit bond was issued by real estate companies, totaling 250 million yuan, a decrease of 44.82 million yuan from the previous week [45]