以下文章来源于晚点对话 ，作者龚方毅 黄俊杰 中金公司首席经济学家 彭文生 " 建立消费大市场需要回归常识，让发展成果更公平惠及全体人民" 晚点对话 . 最一手的商业访谈，最真实的企业家思考。 对等关税从 34% 涨到 125%，已经足以说明买方与卖方的简单权力关系。 7 年前，特朗普第一次对中国发起贸易冲突时，中金公司首席经济学家彭文生提出短期可以用货币、 财政政策应对，但长期需要给中国的消费者减负。 这也是他长期以来的政策主张之一。在 2013 年出版的《渐行渐远的红利》一书中，彭文生就建议随 着政府财力和整体经济实力的增长，中国应当扩大和增强社会保障体系，再结合其他制度调整，缩小 贫富差距，提高全民的消费意愿。 现在，中国如何让自己的国民更有能力消费被更多提及。今年初，中央经济工作会议将 "大力提振消 费、提高投资效益，全方位扩大国内需求" 作为经济工作的首要重点任务。在诸多问题上有分歧的国 内学者们普遍呼吁公平分配、促进消费。 既然 3.5 亿人能成为消费的 "甲方"，14 亿人的统一大市场应该诞生更多的富足的消费者，而不只是全 世界最高效率的工厂。 4 月 13 日，我们再度拜访彭文生，谈论美国成为 ...

Core Viewpoint - In the context of a cooling equity financing environment, mergers and acquisitions (M&A) have become a primary path for investment banks to seek new revenue streams, leading to a mixed performance in the financial advisory business among listed brokers [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Advisory Business Performance - Among 25 listed brokers, 11 achieved positive growth in financial advisory business net income, with the highest increase reaching 53%, while 14 experienced declines, with the largest drop at 61% [1][2]. - The total net income from financial advisory services for these brokers was 3.351 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 2% compared to 2023, indicating significant divergence among individual brokers [2]. - The top eight brokers captured a significant share of the financial advisory market, with their combined net income accounting for 79% of the total, an increase of 4 percentage points from the previous year [4]. Group 2: M&A Market Trends - The number of major asset restructuring announcements in the A-share market reached 112 in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, largely influenced by the "M&A Six Guidelines" policy [2]. - However, the actual completion scale of major asset restructuring transactions fell to 81.241 billion yuan, a decline of 76% year-on-year, reflecting the complexities of M&A transactions [2]. - Despite the high concentration in the financial advisory market, there is a notable income stratification among the top brokers, with significant gaps in revenue between the leading firms [4][5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The M&A market is expected to remain active, with projections indicating a double-digit growth in transaction volume in 2025, driven by ongoing state-owned enterprise reforms and increasing overseas investment demands [7]. - Several brokers have emphasized their commitment to seizing M&A opportunities, particularly in supporting technology companies and emerging industries [8].

Summary of Conference Call Company/Industry Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the Hong Kong stock market and its dynamics, along with insights from the recent Chinese National People's Congress (NPC) sessions. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Performance and Valuation** - The Hong Kong stock market showed strong performance last week, rebounding significantly after a previous decline. Investors are concerned about the current valuation levels and whether it is a good time to buy. The analysis includes both static and dynamic valuation perspectives to address these concerns [2][4][12]. 2. **Impact of NPC Policies** - The NPC has introduced several policies that have positively influenced market sentiment. Analysts will discuss the implications of these policies on various sectors, particularly real estate [3][41]. 3. **Valuation Comparisons** - The static valuation of the Hang Seng Index and its components, particularly the Hang Seng Tech Index, is compared to historical levels and other global markets. The current valuations are deemed not excessively high, suggesting potential investment opportunities [5][14]. 4. **Dynamic Valuation Insights** - Dynamic valuation metrics indicate that while static valuations appear reasonable, the market sentiment is currently quite optimistic, which could lead to overvaluation if not managed carefully. The analysis emphasizes the importance of investor sentiment and risk premiums in determining market movements [6][12][17]. 5. **Capital Flows and Investor Behavior** - There is a notable influx of southbound capital from mainland investors, which has been a significant driver of market sentiment and pricing. The behavior of different investor types, including international and local investors, is analyzed to understand their impact on market dynamics [9][10][11]. 6. **Sector-Specific Insights** - The technology sector is highlighted as a key area of growth, with expectations that advancements in AI and other technologies will drive investor interest and market performance. The valuation of Chinese tech stocks is compared favorably to their U.S. counterparts, indicating potential for growth [7][14][15]. 7. **Real Estate Market Outlook** - The real estate sector is under scrutiny, with policies aimed at stabilizing the market and addressing supply-demand imbalances. Analysts expect a gradual recovery in the real estate market, supported by government initiatives [35][53]. 8. **Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth** - The fiscal policy for the year is expected to be expansionary, with significant government spending aimed at boosting economic growth. The anticipated fiscal deficit and debt issuance are projected to exceed 10% of GDP, indicating a strong commitment to economic stimulus [27][28][42]. 9. **Long-term Economic Trends** - The focus on enhancing domestic consumption and improving living standards is emphasized as a long-term strategy for economic stability. The government is expected to prioritize investments in technology and infrastructure to support sustainable growth [39][40]. 10. **Market Sentiment and Future Expectations** - The overall market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with expectations for improved performance in the second half of the year as fiscal policies take effect and external economic conditions stabilize. Analysts recommend focusing on sectors that benefit from government support and technological advancements [51][52]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The conference highlighted the importance of monitoring the execution pace of fiscal policies, as past experiences show significant variability in effectiveness across different quarters [32][34]. - The discussion also touched on the potential risks associated with geopolitical tensions and their impact on market dynamics, particularly regarding U.S. monetary policy and its effects on global capital flows [20][24][49].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" for the non-bank financial industry [1][30]. Core Insights - The first quarter earnings of brokerage firms are expected to increase significantly, with a maximum year-on-year growth rate of 400% reported by some firms. Eight out of ten firms reported growth exceeding 50% [3][9]. - Several brokerage firms have announced share buybacks to stabilize stock prices and enhance shareholder value amid market volatility [4][9]. - The overall market is showing signs of recovery after significant adjustments, with expectations for further valuation recovery in the brokerage sector as long-term capital enters the market [4][9]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report highlights that ten brokerage firms have disclosed their first-quarter earnings, with all showing growth. The low base from the previous year and active market conditions contributed to this performance [9]. - Share buybacks were announced by multiple firms, including Dongfang Securities and Guotai Junan, aimed at maintaining company value and reflecting management confidence in future growth [4][9]. Market Review - Major indices experienced declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 3.11% and the ChiNext Index down 6.73%. The non-bank financial index fell by 5.19%, ranking 18th among 31 sectors [10]. - The average daily trading volume in A-shares reached 1.61 trillion yuan, a 41.84% increase from the previous period [13][14]. Key Industry Data Tracking 1. Market Performance and Scale: Major indices saw declines, with the A-share trading volume at 8.06 trillion yuan for the week [13]. 2. Credit Business: As of April 11, the market had 3,173.67 million pledged shares, accounting for 3.92% of total equity [16]. 3. Fund Issuance: In March 2025, new fund issuance reached 1,009.26 million units, a 53.42% increase from the previous month [16]. 4. Investment Banking: In March 2025, the equity underwriting scale was 577.90 billion yuan, with IPOs amounting to 92.18 billion yuan [16]. 5. Bond Market: The total price index for bonds fell by 0.50% since the beginning of the year, with the 10-year government bond yield at 1.66%, up 4.91 basis points [16]. Regulatory Policies and Industry Dynamics - The report notes progress in the acquisition of Wanhe Securities by Guosen Securities, which has been accepted for review by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [24]. - Recent credit and social financing data exceeded expectations, indicating a robust financial environment [24]. Key Announcements from Listed Companies - Dongfang Securities reported a revenue of 5.382 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.436 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of 49.04% and 62.08%, respectively [25]. - Guotai Junan's net profit is projected to be between 11.201 billion yuan and 12.445 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 350% to 400% [25].

Financial Performance - The total revenue for China International Capital Corporation (CICC) in 2024 reached RMB 20 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 15%[10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the year was RMB 5 billion, up 10% compared to the previous year[10]. - The company achieved total revenue and other income of RMB 33.172 billion, resulting in a net profit of RMB 5.694 billion for the year[24]. - Total revenue and other income for 2024 amounted to RMB 33,171.6 million, a decrease of 6.4% compared to RMB 35,446.2 million in 2023[71]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company for 2024 was RMB 5,694.3 million, down 7.5% from RMB 6,156.1 million in 2023[71]. - The company's earnings per share for 2024 was RMB 1.035, a decline of 9.1% year-on-year[158]. - The company reported a decrease in total expenses by 8.0% to RMB 26,354.6 million in 2024[167]. Revenue Streams - The firm reported a 30% increase in fixed income trading volume, reflecting strong market demand[10]. - Investment banking revenue decreased to RMB 2,822.2 million in 2024 from RMB 3,664.8 million in 2023, a decline of RMB 842.6 million or 23.0%[194]. - The stock business segment reported a revenue drop to RMB 7,489.8 million in 2024, down 25.6% from RMB 10,067.3 million in 2023[196]. - Fixed income segment revenue increased by 32.2% to RMB 7,935.6 million in 2024, up from RMB 6,002.0 million in 2023[196]. - Asset management revenue grew by 13.0% to RMB 1,360.0 million in 2024, up from RMB 1,203.7 million in 2023[198]. - Private equity segment revenue fell to RMB 1,184.4 million in 2024, a decrease of 43.9% from RMB 2,109.7 million in 2023[199]. Client Engagement and Market Position - User data showed an increase in active clients by 25%, reaching a total of 1.5 million clients[10]. - The company managed pension assets exceeding RMB 150 billion, achieving the highest assessment rating from the Social Security Council for three consecutive years[27]. - The company achieved a leading market share in QFII clients for 21 consecutive years, indicating strong institutional service performance[130]. - The company has a high-quality and extensive customer base, providing comprehensive and customized cross-border services to large enterprises and growing wealth clients[98]. Strategic Initiatives and Future Outlook - The company expects a revenue growth forecast of 12% for the next fiscal year, driven by expanding market share in investment banking[10]. - CICC plans to expand its market presence in Southeast Asia, targeting a 20% increase in regional revenue by 2026[10]. - The company aims to strengthen its role as a bridge between the real economy and capital markets, aiming for breakthroughs in high-quality development by 2025[96]. - The company plans to enhance A-share capabilities and expand coverage of quality enterprises in 2025, while maintaining a leading advantage in Hong Kong IPOs[115]. Operational Efficiency - CICC's cost-to-income ratio improved to 45%, down from 50% in the previous year, indicating enhanced operational efficiency[10]. - The company aims to strengthen internal management and risk control, ensuring stable business operations while enhancing the quality of management[33]. - The company has implemented an efficient management model and a comprehensive risk management system, ensuring effective oversight and unified risk control across its domestic and international operations[103]. Awards and Recognition - The company received multiple awards in 2024, including "Best Investment Bank" and "Best Equity Issuer" in China[58]. - CICC Wealth was recognized as one of the "Top 10 Innovative Services for Family Offices" by Forbes in 2024[59]. - CICC was awarded "Best Green Bond Bank" in the 2024 China Star Awards[59]. - The company has been recognized as a leading market maker in the Northbound Trading segment of the Bond Connect[60]. Technological Advancements - The company has allocated RMB 500 million for research and development in new financial technologies over the next two years[10]. - The company launched a large model for customer service, providing institutional clients with dedicated research assistants available 24/7, marking a new era of AI investment research in the securities industry[31]. - The E-Space platform received the People's Bank of China Financial Technology Development Award in 2024, highlighting the company's leadership in financial technology[152]. Market Trends and Economic Context - The GDP of China is projected to exceed RMB 130 trillion in 2024, reaching RMB 1,349,084 billion, with a growth rate of 5.0% compared to the previous year[87]. - In 2024, China's high-tech manufacturing investment is expected to grow by 7.0% and high-tech service investment by 10.2%, significantly higher than the overall fixed asset investment growth of 3.8%[88]. - The average daily trading volume of A-shares in 2024 reached a historical high of 1.06 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 21.2%[90][92].

全年参与绿色金融领域项目交易规模超4500亿元、境内外绿色及其他ESG债券发行规模累计超3992亿 元……日前，随着最新发布的《年度社会责任暨环境、社会及管治报告》（以下简称《报告》），中金 公司交出了一份亮眼的ESG成绩单。 《报告》从ESG治理、低碳运营、绿色金融等多角度出发，回顾了中金公司在2024年通过绿色行动推动 金融高质量发展中的亮点工作和突出贡献。 中金公司指出，未来将在"做中国自己的国际投行"道路上，以国际最高标准要求自己，努力打造值得信 赖、具有全球影响力的"金"字招牌，为可持续的中国特色金融发展注入中金力量。 为金融高质量发展注入绿色动力，首次实现"碳中和"办会目标 自2023年10月中央金融工作会议提出做好金融"五篇大文章"以来，中金公司围绕这一主线，通过创新金 融产品、优化服务模式、深化产融结合等举措，在服务实体经济方面开展了较多创新尝试和探索。 中金公司介绍，2024年，公司深入参与绿色金融的国际实践，通过股票、债券、并购交易等支持绿色相 关领域的交易超过3900亿元，参与创设银行间市场首个"可持续发展+转型+两新"主题债券篮子，新设 覆盖绿色投资领域的基金约370亿元。 据了解，银 ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其 準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部份內容 而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 China International Capital Corporation Limited 中國，北京 2025年4月14日 於本公告日期，本公司執行董事為陳亮先生；非執行董事為張薇女士及孔令岩先生； 以及獨立非執行董事為吳港平先生、陸正飛先生、彼得•諾蘭先生及周禹先生。 03908 董事會會議通告 中國國際金融股份有限公司（「本公司」）董事會（「董事會」）謹此宣佈將於2025年4月28日召 開董事會會議，藉以（其中包括）審議和批准刊發本公司及其附屬公司截至2025年3月31日 止三個月的業績公告。 承董事會命 中國國際金融股份有限公司 董事會秘書 孫男 ...

| 2024年营收(亿) 投顾业务占比 | 2024年投资咨询 证券公司 | 2023年投资咨询 | 同比增幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 业务收入(亿元) | 业务收入(亿元) | | | | 2.6% | 中金公司 5.53 | 6.85 | -19.3% | 213.33 | | 0.8% | 中信证券 5.07 | 4.69 | 8.0% | 637.89 | | 2.0% | 中信建投 4.23 | 3.46 | 22.1% | 211.29 | | 1.1% | 申万宏源 2.67 | 2.39 | 11.7% | 247.35 | | 0.4% | 中国银河 1.44 | 1.09 | 32.3% | 354.71 | | 1.2% | 中泰证券 1.34 | 1.22 | 10.4% | 108.91 | | 0.5% | 广发证券 1.28 | 1.24 | 2.9% | 271.99 | | 0.2% | ■泰君安 1.06 | 3.44 | -69.3% | 433.97 | | 1.1% | 方正证券 0.85 | 0.27 | 21 ...

Core Viewpoint - Multiple listed securities firms achieved a strong start in Q1 2025, with all reporting double-digit profit growth, driven primarily by wealth management and proprietary trading businesses [2][7]. Group 1: Performance Overview - As of April 11, 2025, 10 listed securities firms have released their Q1 performance forecasts, all showing double-digit net profit growth, with three firms reporting over 100% year-on-year increases [2][3]. - Guotai Junan Securities is expected to report a net profit of between 11.201 billion to 12.445 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 350% to 400%, making it the top performer [3][4]. - CITIC Securities reported a net profit of 6.545 billion yuan, marking the smallest growth among the firms at 32% [6][4]. Group 2: Growth Drivers - The growth in net profits is attributed to significant increases in wealth management and proprietary trading revenues, with active market trading contributing to these results [7][8]. - In Q1, the number of new A-share accounts increased by 32% year-on-year, with daily average trading volume rising by 74.7% [7]. - The issuance of equity funds also saw a substantial increase, with 72 new funds established, reflecting a growth rate of 66.06% [7]. Group 3: Analyst Predictions - Analysts predict a wide range of growth rates for the securities firms, with estimates for net profit growth varying from 23% to 77.7% [2][12]. - High expectations for brokerage and credit business revenues are noted, with predictions of increases of 65.7% and 77.1% respectively [12][13]. - Analysts agree that the overall performance of the securities sector is likely to benefit from a recovering market and increased trading activity [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the acquisition of Sichuan Chengyu Highway Co., Ltd. by Shudao Investment Group, highlighting the completion of the asset transfer and the ongoing compliance with regulatory requirements for the acquisition process [1][4][24]. Group 1: Acquisition Overview - On April 2, 2021, Sichuan Transportation Investment Group and Sichuan Railway Industry Investment Group signed a merger agreement, leading to the establishment of Shudao Group [1]. - Shudao Group holds a total of 1,096,769,662 shares in Sichuan Chengyu, representing a 35.86% ownership stake [1]. Group 2: Regulatory Compliance - Shudao Group received a written approval from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission on May 27, 2021, exempting it from making a mandatory offer [2]. - Sichuan Chengyu has published multiple announcements regarding the strategic restructuring and acquisition process on the Shanghai Stock Exchange [2][3]. Group 3: Financial Advisor's Opinion - The financial advisor confirmed that the asset transfer procedures have been completed and that both the acquirer and the listed company have fulfilled their disclosure obligations [5][24]. Group 4: Commitments and Future Plans - Shudao Group has made commitments to avoid related party transactions and maintain the independence of Sichuan Chengyu [6]. - There are currently no plans to change the main business operations of Sichuan Chengyu, and any future adjustments will comply with legal requirements [9][11]. Group 5: Corporate Governance - Sichuan Chengyu has established a sound corporate governance structure and internal control system, complying with the regulations set by the China Securities Regulatory Commission [24].