作者 |崔峻阳 编辑 | 袁畅 在低利率逐渐成为常态之后，一个有些"奇怪"的行业现象开始出现。 一方面，面向大众的现金类工具，回报越来越接近，功能也越来越趋同。 另一方面，一些只在大型券商高端理财货架上出现、主要面向私募客户的产品，却在"放现金"这件事上，走出了完全不同 的路径。 原本最应该简单透明的"现金"，开始被放进更复杂的安排之中。 这种变化并不张扬，也很少被单独拿出来讨论，却正在悄然发生。 对于一部分资金来说，"放在哪里"不再只是收益高低的选择，而是进入了另一套运行体系。 01 闲钱产品中的"例外" 当前低利率环境下，那些暂时不用、但随时能取的钱，放在哪种产品里，回报已经差不多。 资事堂注意到，中金公司旗下的财富平台上，一款名为"现金宝"的产品在同类现金类产品中显得较为突出。 该产品全称为"外贸信托-中金现金宝XX号集合资金信托计划"，下文简称为"中金现金宝"。公开资料显示，该产品面向私募 类高净值客户开放， 七日年化收益率可达1.9%（截至2025年12月25日）。 这一收益表现的"突出"，来自与当前主流现金管理工具的直接对照。 截至目前，国有大行一年期定存利率已降至1%以下，五年期定存利率约为1. ...

Core Insights - Investors are facing a complex situation as the global economic cycle approaches a critical turning point by the end of 2025, with strong long-term growth potential from AI but high valuations and expectations [1] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy for 2026 should shift from "single-sided bets" to "balanced allocation," embracing AI hardware as a certain growth direction while retaining high-dividend assets for hedging [2] Scarcity of Return Assets - The core characteristic of the 2026 market environment will be excess liquidity chasing scarce return assets, with the ability of these assets to expand being a key variable [3] - AI hardware, particularly supported by government policies, remains a clear direction for scarce return assets, despite high short-term expectations and valuations [3] High Dividend Assets - High dividend-paying assets are crucial hedging tools in an environment of contracting private credit, providing stable returns amidst overall credit contraction [4] - Strong cyclical sectors may benefit from U.S. fiscal expansion and monetary easing, potentially boosting demand for commodities like copper and aluminum [4] Opportunities in Hong Kong Market - The influx of southbound funds has provided significant liquidity to the Hong Kong market, with an average monthly inflow exceeding 120 billion from January to November 2025 [5] - The unique structure of the Hong Kong market, driven by mainland companies and influenced by both domestic and overseas liquidity, creates complex rotation patterns [5] Fund Flow Dynamics - The flow of southbound funds may become differentiated, with long-term allocation funds like insurance continuing to invest in high-dividend assets, while trading funds may shift back to A-shares if the market becomes more active [6] - A balanced allocation strategy is recommended for individual investors, with 10% to 20% of funds allocated to high-dividend assets [6] Sector Focus - The Hong Kong market's structural advantages remain prominent, with high dividends being a core attraction for institutional investors [6] - AI hardware, supported by policy, offers high certainty, while strong cyclical sectors benefiting from U.S. demand are also worth attention [6] - Individual investors are advised to use thematic ETFs to participate in the Hong Kong market rather than directly betting on individual stocks [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that wealth management is fundamentally about serving people and understanding their long-term needs, which vary significantly between different customer segments [1] - The common pain points faced by clients in the investment process are summarized as the "three difficulties": difficulty in product selection, difficulty in holding investments, and difficulty in achieving profits [1] - The key to overcoming these challenges lies in shifting from a "sell-side sales" approach to a "buy-side service" model, aligning the interests of the company with those of the clients [1] Group 2 - Under the guidance of a buy-side advisory philosophy, the company provides customized allocation plans based on different risk preferences, funding attributes, and investment goals [2] - The company has established a comprehensive product research system and a mature investment system, supported by a multi-asset layout to explore diverse revenue streams [2] - Recent achievements indicate the effectiveness of the company's buy-side advisory transformation, with product scale surpassing 450 billion yuan and buy-side advisory asset retention exceeding 130 billion yuan [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [13] Core Insights - The brokerage investment banking business has experienced a contraction from 2022 to 2024, but is expected to see a recovery starting in 2025, with significant improvements in both business volume and revenue [2][7] - The recovery is influenced by the resurgence of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board (STAR Market), which is anticipated to enhance the profitability of brokerage firms through underwriting and follow-on investments [2][10] - Leading brokerage firms such as Guotai Junan, CITIC Securities, and CICC are expected to leverage their resource and scale advantages to maintain competitive edges in the market [2][10] Summary by Sections Investment Banking Business Recovery - The brokerage investment banking sector is projected to recover in 2025 after three years of contraction, with a notable increase in business volume and revenue [7][21] - A-share IPO and refinancing volumes for 2025 are expected to reach CNY 1,253 billion and CNY 9,347 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 86.1% and 318.9% [21][28] Market Concentration - The concentration of A-share IPOs has significantly increased, with the top five firms (CR5) accounting for 71.5% of the total IPO volume in 2025, up 15.9 percentage points from 2024 [28] - The concentration in bond underwriting has also risen, with CR5 at 52.3% [28] Sci-Tech Innovation Board Follow-On Investment - The follow-on investment returns from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board have improved significantly, with total follow-on investment amounting to CNY 11.2 billion in 2025 and first-day returns reaching 261% [9][30] - Major firms like CITIC, Huatai, and Guotai Junan have reported substantial first-day follow-on investment returns, contributing significantly to their annual profit growth [9][30] 2026 Outlook - The report anticipates a robust project pipeline for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board in 2026, with a total planned issuance of CNY 675 billion from 40 companies [36] - Under optimistic scenarios, follow-on investment returns could drive profit growth for leading brokerage firms by up to 10% in 2026 [10][42]

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其 準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部份內容 而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 China International Capital Corporation Limited 中 國 國 際 金 融 股 份 有 限 公 司 （於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司） （股份代號：03908） 海外監管公告 本公告乃根據香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規則第13.10B條而作出。 茲載列中國國際金融股份有限公司（「本公司」）在上海證券交易所網站刊登的本公司2023 年面向專業投資者公開發行公司債券（第一期）（品種二）2026年票面利率調整及債券回售 實施的第三次提示性公告，僅供參閱。 承董事會命 中國國際金融股份有限公司 董事會秘書 孫男 中國，北京 2025年12月26日 於本公告日期，本公司執行董事為陳亮先生及王曙光先生；非執行董事為張薇女士、 孔令岩先生及田汀女士；以及獨立非執行董事為吳港平先生、陸正飛先生、彼得 • 諾蘭先 生及周禹先生。 债券代码:138842 债券简称:23 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the US dollar index has returned to around 98, with market liquidity significantly weakened during the Christmas week, despite the US Q3 GDP data exceeding expectations. Concerns about the US labor market persist, supporting high expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][18] - Non-US currencies experienced overall appreciation last week, with significant gains in commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar (up 1.57%), New Zealand dollar (up 1.37%), Norwegian krone (up 1.34%), and Canadian dollar (up 0.95%). The British pound rose by 0.88%, while the euro saw a modest increase of about 0.5% [1] - The Japanese yen reversed previous losses after the Bank of Japan's dovish rate hike in December, ultimately appreciating by 0.75% last week. The Chinese yuan also accelerated its appreciation, with the offshore rate briefly surpassing 7.0 due to a weak dollar and increased year-end settlement demand [1][10] Group 2 - Looking ahead, the market is expected to remain relatively stable during the last three trading days of 2025, with liquidity likely to remain weak due to many traders being on holiday. Attention will be focused on the Chinese yuan exchange rate, which may face upward pressure as year-end settlement pressures are released [2] - The prediction range for USD/CNY is set between 7.00 and 7.03. Last week, the yuan maintained a moderate appreciation trend, although the pace of appreciation was limited by the steady exchange rate policy [3][10] - The yuan's appreciation is supported by seasonal factors, but the central bank's steady exchange rate policy has constrained the rate of appreciation. The central bank's recent signals emphasize the need to prevent excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate [11][16] Group 3 - The euro experienced a rise early last week but faced resistance around 1.18, ultimately closing with a weekly gain of about 0.5%. The market's focus on the Federal Reserve's dovish expectations may continue to influence the euro's performance [17] - Concerns about the US labor market persist, with Q3 GDP growth recorded at 4.3%, surpassing expectations. However, weekly unemployment claims data indicates a weakening employment growth momentum, maintaining high expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [18] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is perceived to have ended its current rate cut cycle, as indicated by the OIS market, which reflects a relatively calm European market during the Christmas holiday [21]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the establishment of a digital research platform by CICC, aimed at providing efficient, professional, and accurate research services through the integration of insights from over 30 specialized teams and extensive market coverage [1]. Group 1: Research Services - CICC's digital research platform, "CICC Insight," integrates the wisdom of research analysts and offers a one-stop service for research reports, conference activities, and fundamental databases [1]. - The platform covers over 1,800 individual stocks, showcasing a deep accumulation of research [1]. - It utilizes advanced model technology to enhance the research service experience for clients [1]. Group 2: Research Content - The platform provides daily updates on research focuses and selects timely articles for users [4]. - It features live broadcasts where senior analysts interpret market hotspots, enhancing real-time engagement [4]. - The platform includes over 3,000 complete research reports covering macroeconomics, industry research, and commodities [9]. Group 3: Data and Frameworks - CICC Insight offers more than 160 industry research frameworks and over 40 premium databases, providing comprehensive data resources [10]. - The platform includes a sophisticated data dashboard and AI search capabilities for efficient information retrieval [10].

Core Viewpoint - Over 80% of public REITs products experienced an increase this week, with the China Securities REITs Total Return Index rising by 1.56% from December 22 to 26, 2023 [2][5] Market Performance - The China Securities REITs Total Return Index saw a slight decline of 0.18% on December 26, closing at 1014.80 points. During the week, 67 out of 79 listed public REITs recorded a rise, with the highest increase being 7.86% for the Zhongjin Chongqing Liangjiang REIT [5][6] - The top-performing REITs included Zhongjin Chongqing Liangjiang REIT (7.86%), Huaxia Fund Huayun REIT (5.99%), and Bosera Jinkai Industrial Park REIT (5.94%). Conversely, 10 products experienced declines, with one falling over 5% [5][6] New Developments - The highly anticipated Xinjiang first hydropower REIT, Huaxia Zhongke Clean Energy REIT, successfully concluded its issuance, attracting over 1616 billion yuan in subscription funds, with a public investor subscription multiple of approximately 392 times [3][8][9] - The underlying asset of Huaxia Zhongke Clean Energy REIT is the Bopona Hydropower Station, the largest in the Hotan region, which has maintained stable revenue and power generation for over 14 years [9] Market Insights - Analysts suggest that the recent price fluctuations in the public REITs market are largely unrelated to the underlying fundamentals, but rather influenced by discussions surrounding the accounting treatment of OCI principal and interest [5][7] - The market is still in a policy dividend period, and it is recommended to gradually focus on low-priced opportunities in relatively stable projects [7]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has approved China International Capital Corporation to provide primary market-making services for the Huabao CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Automotive Industry Thematic ETF starting from December 29, 2025 [1] - The approval aims to enhance market liquidity and ensure stable operation of the Hong Kong Stock Connect Automotive Industry ETF [1] Group 2 - The announcement is documented under the Shanghai Stock Exchange notice number 2682 for the year 2025 [1] - The date of the announcement is December 26, 2025 [3]

来源：进出口银行 12月24日，进出口银行党委书记、董事长陈怀宇与中国国际金融股份有限公司（以下简称中金公司）党 委书记、董事长陈亮在京举行会谈，双方就进一步巩固和深化同业合作深入交流。进出口银行党委委 员、副行长王康参加会谈。 来源：进出口银行 12月24日，进出口银行党委书记、董事长陈怀宇与中国国际金融股份有限公司（以下简称中金公司）党 委书记、董事长陈亮在京举行会谈，双方就进一步巩固和深化同业合作深入交流。进出口银行党委委 员、副行长王康参加会谈。 陈怀宇董事长对陈亮董事长一行的来访表示欢迎。他表示，中金公司是进出口银行的重要合作伙伴，双 方工作联系密切、合作前景广阔。进出口银行将深入贯彻落实"十五五"规划建议关于扩大高水平对外开 放等方面的重要部署，继续聚焦主责主业，与中金公司建立长效合作机制，在培育新质生产力、拓展获 客渠道、支持境外股权投资等方面加强联动，共同将党中央决策部署落地落实。 陈亮董事长对进出口银行的支持和信任表示感谢，并介绍了中金公司各版块业务情况和发展规划。他表 示，希望双方保持各层级密切沟通，发挥各自比较优势，探索多种合作模式，携手提供更高质量的金融 服务，推动更多务实成果落地，实 ...