行业研究 银行 2025 年 03 月 16 日 华创证券研究所 证 券 研 究 报 告 银行业周报（20250310-20250316） 推荐（维持） 提振消费促进需求回暖，资产质量趋稳 证券分析师：贾靖 邮箱：jiajing@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040004 证券分析师：徐康 电话：021-20572556 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518060005 联系人：林宛慧 邮箱：linwanhui@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 42 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 114,991.99 | 13.04 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 78,973.67 | 11.41 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 5.0% | 17.3% | 17.7% | | 相对表现 | 2.8% | 15.6% | 24.4% | -12% 3% 19% 34% 24/03 2 ...

招聘岗位 行业研究岗（互联网软件及大模型） 岗位须知 岗位职责 1.通过实地调研、收集数据和分析，深入研究行业和公司的竞争状况、商业模式、发展趋势和风险状 况，发现行业和公司的基本面变化，为业务发展和风险预判提供参考； 2.根据研究覆盖范围，重点开展 互联网软件及大模型行业 的研究，撰写行业策略、专题、深度报告； 3.跟踪行业和公司的重要数据、事项，建立行业分析数据库和行业知识图谱，形成行业研究框架体 系； 4.为业务部门和客户提供研究服务，参加行内外各类报告会、策略会、研讨会、客户拜访等路演活 动，推动行业研究成果应用； 5.完成行领导及部门安排的其他工作。 岗位要求 1.硕士及以上学历，具备三年以上研究工作经验，具备行业与金融复合背景者优先； 2. 在相关行业有一定的研究积累，掌握相关行业的研究方法，有优秀的数据分析能力、调查分析能力 和文字撰写能力； 深圳市 截止日期 2025-05-23 3.热爱行业研究工作，对行业发展趋势具备敏感性，有优秀的逻辑思维能力、学习领悟能力及沟通协 调能力； 4.踏实勤奋，有较强的责任心、团队合作精神，抗压能力强。 所属机构 招商银行研究院 工作地点 应聘方式 扫码点击" ...

| | 大类资产 | 月度趋势 | | | 配置建议(未来6个月) | | | 配置变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 高配 | 中高配 | 标配 | 中低配 | 低配 | | | 汇率 | 美元 | 偏强震荡 | | ● | | | | | | | 欧元 | 偏弱震荡 | | | | ● | | | | | 人民币 | 偏弱震荡 | | | O | | | | | | 日元 | 偏弱震荡 | | | O | | | | | | 英镑 | 偏弱震荡 | | | 0 | | | | | | 中国国债 | 震荡 | | | 0 | | | | | | 中国信用债 | 震荡 | | | O | | | | | 固收 | 可转债 | 震荡 | | | O | | | | | | 美元债 | 偏强震荡 | ● | | | | | | | 权益 | Ａ股 | 震荡 | | ● | | | | | | | 一消费 | 震荡 | | | O | | | | | | 一周期 | 震荡 | | | O | | | | | | 一 ...

Core Viewpoint - Ping An Life's stake in three major banks' H-shares is a necessary choice for insurance capital seeking stable returns amid an "asset shortage," responding to policy calls and enhancing competitiveness through bancassurance collaboration [1][8]. Group 1: Investment Actions - Ping An Life disclosed that it has reached a 5% stake in Agricultural Bank of China H-shares, marking the third major bank it has invested in since 2025 [2]. - As of now, Ping An Life's holdings in Agricultural Bank, Postal Savings Bank, and China Merchants Bank H-shares have all surpassed 5% [2]. - Following the purchase of 133 million Industrial and Commercial Bank of China H-shares, Ping An Group's stake rose to 18.08% [2]. Group 2: Significance of Insurance Capital's Stake - The investment optimizes asset allocation as current market interest rates are declining, making fixed-income assets less capable of covering insurance liabilities [4]. - Insurance capital can smooth financial statement volatility by classifying bank stocks under FVOCI, avoiding direct impacts of stock price fluctuations on current profits [4]. - The move aligns with regulatory encouragement for insurance capital to support the real economy, with bank stocks being a core economic sector [4]. Group 3: Reasons for Choosing Specific Banks - The selected banks offer high dividend yields and low valuations, with Agricultural Bank's H-share yield exceeding 9% and a price-to-book ratio below 1 [6]. - These banks exhibit strong operational stability, with controllable non-performing loan ratios and growth in revenue and net profit as of 2024 [6]. - H-shares provide liquidity advantages, influenced by international capital flows and favorable valuations in the Hong Kong market [6]. Group 4: Impact on Capital Markets - The entry of insurance capital boosts market confidence, signaling positive trends and potentially driving bank stock valuation recovery [7]. - This investment encourages a long-term investment philosophy, shifting market focus from short-term speculation to value investing [7].

去年四季度以来，以平安为代表的险资持续扫货银行股！ 港交所披露易最新信息显示，2月20日，平安集团通过旗下平安人寿分别增持3269.9万股农业银行H股、1308.4万股邮储银行H股、578.15万股招商银行H股。增持完 成后，平安集团持有的农行H股占该行H股总数突破8%，所持邮储银行H股、招行H股数量占两家银行H股总数突破7%。 此前，该集团所持前述三家银行H股占比已于去年底至今年1月初陆续突破5%。更早之前，平安集团对建设银行H股、工商银行H股的持股占比于去年12月中旬分别 突破5%、15%。其中，持有的工行H股占比已于2月14日加仓至18%以上。 据券商中国记者统计，去年12月18日至今年2月20日，平安集团通过旗下平安人寿、平安财险等平台持续增持工行、农行、建行、邮储、招行H股，合计耗资近170 亿港元，最新持仓市值超2000亿港元。 中信建投证券金融团队研报认为，在银行业实际经营和预期的底部进一步夯实情况下，以底线思维、高置信度、高胜率为核心诉求的配置型需求安全边际进一步提 升。 险资扫货不停 披露易信息显示，2月20日，平安集团在场内增持 3269.9万股农行H股 ，增持后以"你所控制的法团的权益" ...

10月29日，招商银行深圳分行联手深圳市福田区成功落地全市首单小微企业融资协调工作机制业务，为福田区某 小微企业核定随借随还贷款额度，并成功放款。 小微企业融资协调工作机制是中央在助企纾困以及缓解小微经营主体融资困难方面的重要举措之一。为深入贯彻学 习中央金融工作会议精神，精准落实国家金融监管总局关于"推动小微企业融资协调工作机制尽快落地见效"指示精 神及相关工作要求，招商银行坚持金融工作的政治性、人民性，第一时间落实政策要求，总行成立工作专班，全行 统一部署相关工作安排。 深圳分行快速响应，推进协调机制政策落地实施。分行层面迅速设立协调机制工作专班，积极与地方工作专班对 接，了解相关工作要求，进行政策传达及名单收集。支行层面也积极落实专班建设，负责与辖属各级政府部门进行 对接，承接具体业务的落地。 理财攻略快速入门 宠粉送礼也很在行 赚钱攒钱也要钱生钱 小白党也能轻松上车 目前，深圳分行所在各区的综合支行已与深圳市各区政府展开密切对接，联合走访小微企业，开展客户活动。深圳 分行以此次支持小微企业融资协调工作机制为契机，深入一线、深入企业，高效服务、合力为信贷资金直达基层、 金融惠企利民打通"最后一公里"贡献 ...

a 银 行 "碳寻星空"活动 碳减排量计算报告 您有多久,没见过满天繁 星了？ 过量碳排放引起气候异常变暖 伴随而来的空气污染亦使灰霾 遮盖星空,星光变得暗淡。 现在,有这样一个机会: 在招商银行App搜索 碳导星空, 您的点滴低碳行为将得到记录 并产生星光。 收取星光并去点亮,可以让星 空恢复璀璨,还有机会捐赠星 光参与爱心助农公益活动。 碳寻星空联合深圳绿色交易所通过科学的计算模型，将用户在 日常生活中低碳行为记录下来,量化为具体的减碳效益。 低碳行为对应的碳减量 | 单次行为碳减量(gCO2/次) 250 236.43 200 150 100 36.33 39.92 23.96 23.96 23.96 50 7.99 7.99 0 十年 上 录排一 上查收 上查社 上音医 一次线上查询社保、一次乘坐地铁出行 …… 每一份寻常生活中的低碳 行为,都是在为地球减少碳排放、改善人类生存环境进行努力。 用户可以在碳寻星空中通过收集"星光"点亮星座、领取徽章、奖励兑 换等方式获得各种奖励,还能直观感受到自己为节能减排做出的贡献。 碳寻星空上线一年以来，用户累计碳减排量达598吨。低碳 路上你是否好奇过"哪种低碳行 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Merchants Bank-H (3968 HK) with a target price of HK$48.90, representing a potential upside of 29% from the current price of HK$38.00 [1][5]. Core Views - The bank's 3Q24 earnings met expectations, benefiting from effective cost control that offset declines in interest and commission income. The adjusted net profit for 3Q24 was RMB 38.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [6][10]. - Revenue growth continues to slow, with a year-on-year decline of 2.6%, primarily due to a 14 basis point decrease in net interest margin, which offset a 4.7% increase in loans [6][12]. - The bank's asset quality showed relative improvement, with a non-performing loan ratio stable at 0.94% and a high coverage ratio of 432.2% [7][14]. - The outlook for 4Q24 and 2025 suggests a continued decline in net interest margin, although the pace of decline is expected to slow. Credit demand is anticipated to recover in 2025 [8][12]. Summary by Sections Earnings Performance - In 3Q24, adjusted net profit was RMB 38.4 billion, with a year-to-date adjusted net profit of RMB 111.2 billion, flat year-on-year [6][10]. - The bank's total revenue for 3Q24 was RMB 79.1 billion, down 2.6% year-on-year, driven by a decrease in net interest income and commission income [13]. Financial Metrics - The bank's cost-to-income ratio improved to 32.6%, down from 34.3% in 2Q24, indicating better cost management [7][14]. - The core Tier 1 capital ratio increased by 87 basis points to 14.73%, reflecting strengthened capital levels [7][14]. Future Outlook - The bank expects a decline in net interest margin in 4Q24, but the decrease is projected to be less severe than in 2024. Loan growth is expected to exceed 2024 levels, particularly in retail loans [8][12]. - The bank's ability to generate positive growth in commission income in 2025 will depend on regulatory decisions regarding fee reductions [8][12].

Financial Performance - The company reported a mid-year financial performance with significant metrics to be detailed in the financial summary section[4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2024 was RMB 60 billion, representing a growth of 12% compared to the same period last year[4]. - The company reported a net operating income of RMB 172.92 billion for the first half of 2024, a decrease of 3.11% compared to RMB 178.47 billion in the same period of 2023[20]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 74.74 billion, down 1.33% from RMB 75.75 billion year-on-year[20]. - Future guidance indicates an expected revenue growth of 8-10% for the full year 2024[4]. Assets and Liabilities - The total assets of the company reached RMB 5.2 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8%[4]. - Total assets reached RMB 11,574.78 billion, representing a growth of 4.95% from RMB 11,028.48 billion at the end of 2023[20]. - The total liabilities of the group amounted to RMB 10,457.758 billion, a 5.18% increase compared to the end of the previous year, driven by steady growth in customer deposits[69]. - Customer deposits rose by 6.22% to RMB 8,662.89 billion from RMB 8,155.44 billion at the end of 2023[20]. Loan Quality and Non-Performing Loans - The loan quality analysis indicated a non-performing loan ratio of 1.5%, which is stable compared to the previous year[4]. - The non-performing loan ratio improved slightly to 0.94%, down 0.01 percentage points from the previous year[21]. - The non-performing loan balance was RMB 63.427 billion, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.94%, a slight decrease of 0.01 percentage points from the previous year[78]. - The overdue loans totaled RMB 95.58 billion, representing 1.42% of total loans, an increase of 0.16 percentage points from the end of the previous year[91]. Capital Adequacy and Risk Management - The capital adequacy ratio stands at 14.5%, exceeding the regulatory requirement of 10.5%[4]. - The core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio, tier 1 capital adequacy ratio, and total capital adequacy ratio are 13.86%, 16.09%, and 17.95%, respectively, increasing by 0.13, 0.08, and 0.07 percentage points compared to the end of last year[100]. - The loan provision rate stands at 4.08%, a slight decrease of 0.06 percentage points from the end of last year[95]. - The company has strengthened risk management capabilities, particularly in real estate and local debt sectors, to maintain asset quality[134]. Income and Expenses - Interest income for the period was RMB 187.99 billion, an increase of 0.35% year-on-year, driven by the growth in interest-earning assets[26]. - The group's net interest income was CNY 104.449 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.17%[37]. - Non-interest net income totaled 68,473 million RMB, a decrease of 1.43% year-on-year, with net commission and fee income dropping by 18.61% to 38,328 million RMB[42][44]. - Operating expenses for the first half of 2024 were 56,345 million RMB, a slight decrease of 0.05% year-on-year, with employee expenses declining by 0.55%[46][48]. Customer Engagement and Digital Transformation - New product offerings include a digital banking platform aimed at enhancing customer engagement and operational efficiency[4]. - Monthly active users of the bank's apps reached 117 million, with over 50% of retail loan acquisition being digital[126]. - The company invested 4.586 billion yuan in information technology, accounting for 2.91% of net operating income, with a total of 4,198 financial technology innovation projects initiated[125]. - The open operation service platform "Kaiyang Portal" has completed intelligent transformation for over 500 operational processes, improving key business processing efficiency by 56% compared to the end of the previous year[130]. Strategic Initiatives and Market Expansion - The company plans to expand its market presence by increasing the number of branches by 10% in the next fiscal year[4]. - The company aims to enhance its non-interest income through product innovation and deepening customer engagement in retail and corporate services[143]. - The company plans to continue supporting the real estate market while managing risks associated with different types of real estate enterprises[145]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its asset structure and maintaining a reasonable asset yield level while managing liabilities effectively[140].

Customer Deposits and Liabilities - As of June 30, 2024, total customer deposits reached RMB 866.29 billion, an increase of 6.22% compared to the end of 2023, accounting for 82.84% of total liabilities[4] - The total liabilities of the group amounted to RMB 1,045.78 billion as of June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 994.27 billion at the end of 2023[3] - The total liabilities reached RMB 10,457.76 billion, an increase of 5.18% compared to the previous year, primarily due to steady growth in customer deposits[25] - Customer deposits totaled RMB 8,662.886 billion, marking a 6.22% increase compared to the end of last year[59] Loans and Advances - The total amount of loans and advances was RMB 674.78 billion, with a year-on-year increase in various loan categories[12] - The total loans and advances amounted to RMB 6,747.80 billion, reflecting a growth of 3.67% from the previous year[28] - The total loans and advances amounted to RMB 6,747.804 billion, reflecting a growth of 3.67% year-on-year[59] - Retail loans accounted for 52.48% of total loans, with non-performing retail loans at RMB 32.04 billion, resulting in an NPL ratio of 0.90%[12] Asset Quality and Non-Performing Loans - Non-performing loans (NPL) amounted to RMB 63.43 billion, with an NPL ratio of 0.94%, a slight decrease of 0.01 percentage points from the end of 2023[11] - The proportion of normal loans was 97.82% of total loans, while the proportion of attention loans increased to 1.24%[10] - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio was 0.94%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points from the end of the previous year[78] - Credit impairment losses decreased by 13.30% to RMB 26.928 billion, reflecting improved asset quality[93] Financial Performance - The group achieved operating net income of RMB 172.92 billion for the first half of 2024, a decrease of 3.11% year-on-year[74] - The pre-tax profit for the first half of 2024 was RMB 89.64 billion, down 1.37% from the same period in 2023[74] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 74.74 billion, a decrease of 1.33% year-on-year[74] - Net interest income accounted for 60.40% of total income, while non-interest net income increased by 0.67 percentage points year-on-year to 39.60%[61] Capital Adequacy and Risk Management - The core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio, tier 1 capital adequacy ratio, and capital adequacy ratio were 11.64%, 13.51%, and 14.60% respectively at the end of the reporting period[57] - As of the reporting period, the company's core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio, Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio, and total capital adequacy ratio were 13.86%, 16.09%, and 17.95%, respectively, an increase of 0.13, 0.08, and 0.07 percentage points compared to the end of the previous year[172] - The leverage ratio decreased to 7.88% from 8.26%, a decline of 0.38 percentage points[175] - The company has consistently met capital and leverage regulatory requirements throughout the reporting period[194] Investment and Securities - The total amount of financial investments measured at fair value and recognized in profit or loss was RMB 579.23 billion, an increase from RMB 526.15 billion as of December 31, 2023, representing a growth of 10.06%[18] - The total bond investment amounted to RMB 2,928.55 billion as of June 30, 2024, up from RMB 2,844.69 billion at the end of 2023, marking a growth of 2.94%[22] - The company has actively expanded its bond investment scale while increasing trading operations, resulting in favorable returns amid a stable funding environment and declining bond yields[18] - The group’s investment securities and other financial assets amounted to RMB 3,350.388 billion, representing 28.95% of total assets[97] Operating Expenses and Income - Operating expenses amounted to CNY 56.34 billion, a slight decrease of 0.05% year-on-year[119] - The cost-to-income ratio was 29.75%, an increase of 0.68 percentage points year-on-year[119] - Total net fee and commission income was CNY 38.33 billion, representing an 18.61% decrease year-on-year[116] - Wealth management fees and commissions decreased by 32.51% year-on-year to CNY 11.44 billion[117] Shareholder Information and Governance - The company held a shareholders' meeting on June 25, 2024, where 14 proposals were approved, including the 2023 annual profit distribution plan[143] - The first major shareholder, China Merchants Group, holds 29.97% of the company's shares, with China Merchants Shipping Company directly owning 13.04%[162] - The company actively promotes sustainable development across various sectors, including inclusive finance and green finance, as part of its governance structure[141] - The company has no significant guarantees outside of its approved business scope during the reporting period[156]