Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Views - December saw a record high in both cross-border net inflow and net settlement scale, with the bank's foreign-related payment surplus reaching 801.1 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 400.2 billion CNY [14][17] - The arbitrage trading return rate declined significantly, influenced by the depreciation of the US dollar against the offshore RMB, which fell by 1.32% to 6.98 [14][17] - The cross-border funds' net inflow in December was the highest on record, driven by a substantial increase in merchandise trade surplus [17][31] Summary by Sections Section 1: December Cross-Border Net Inflow and Settlement - The bank's foreign-related payment surplus in December was 801.1 billion CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 400.2 billion CNY, primarily due to a significant expansion in merchandise trade surplus [17] - The net settlement in December reached a historical high of 705.5 billion CNY, with a month-on-month increase of 589.1 billion CNY and a year-on-year increase of 780.6 billion CNY [31] Section 2: Arbitrage Trading Returns - The arbitrage trading return rate for 10Y US Treasury bonds in RMB terms fell by 1.43 percentage points to -1.77% due to the marginal appreciation of the RMB [14][17] - The 10Y China-US interest rate spread widened by 15 basis points, with the 10Y US Treasury yield rising by 16 basis points [14] Section 3: Cross-Border Funds and M2 Liquidity - Cross-border funds contributed significantly to M2 liquidity, with a total of 774.4 billion CNY added, reflecting an increase of 863.2 billion CNY month-on-month [55] - The cross-border funds' inflow had a pull rate of 0.10% on M2, indicating a continued upward trend [55]

Summary of Conference Call on China Banks Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the Chinese banking sector, particularly the implications of recent monetary and fiscal stimulus measures announced by the People's Bank of China (PBoC) [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments Monetary Policy Changes - PBoC announced new supportive monetary policies on January 15, including: - Expansion of relending facilities with an additional quota of approximately RMB 1.1 trillion, targeting private enterprises and key industries such as agriculture, small businesses, technological innovation, carbon reduction, service consumption, and elderly care [1]. - A 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut for relending facilities, reducing the rate from 1.5% to 1.25% [7]. - Potential for further cuts in the Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) and Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [1][2]. Impact on Banks' Net Interest Margin (NIM) - The relending facilities rate cut is expected to benefit banks' NIM by approximately 0.3 bps, as banks can borrow cheaper funds from PBoC [1]. - The balance of relending facilities reached around RMB 5 trillion by Q3 2025, representing about 1% of banks' total assets [1]. - The anticipated fiscal stimulus, including interest subsidies on consumer and micro loans, is expected to have a limited negative impact on banks' NIM [1]. Credit Growth and Loan Demand - The stimulus measures are designed to incentivize banks to direct credit towards policy-favored sectors, supporting loan growth at the beginning of 2026, coinciding with the start of the 15th five-year plan [1]. - There is an expectation of stronger-than-expected loan growth in early 2026 due to these targeted lending initiatives [1]. Treasury Bond Market Dynamics - Lower treasury bond yields are projected to widen the spread between banks' dividend yields and the 10-year China treasury bond yield, attracting yield-seeking investors [2][5]. - The PBoC may actively participate in treasury bond trading to rebalance supply and demand dynamics, potentially lowering treasury bond yields further [2]. Investment Outlook for China Banks - China banks' H-shares have underperformed the Hang Seng Index by 7 percentage points year-to-date in 2026, but there is optimism for recovery due to: - Expected growth in insurers' premiums, leading to increased inflows into high-yield bank stocks [6]. - The attractiveness of banks' dividend yields due to lower treasury bond yields [6]. - The positive impact of monetary and fiscal stimulus on loan growth with limited negative effects on NIM [6]. - Specific banks highlighted for potential investment include ICBC-H and BOC-H, which offer above-peer dividend yields and favorable valuations [6]. Insurer Investments in Banks - Notable changes in equity stakes by insurers in various banks were discussed, indicating a trend towards increased financial investments in the banking sector [12]. Additional Important Information - The conference call emphasized the importance of monitoring the evolving regulatory environment and market conditions that could impact the banking sector's performance [1][2][6]. - Analysts expressed caution regarding the potential for NIM compression in FY26, estimating a 6 bps decrease, but noted that RRR cuts and potential deposit rate cuts could provide some offset [2]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections regarding the Chinese banking sector as discussed in the conference call, highlighting the implications of recent monetary policies and the outlook for investment opportunities.

Core Insights - The banking sector has shown weak relative and absolute returns recently, primarily due to market funds shifting towards high-beta and small-cap stocks, leading to a diversion of funds from low-beta banking stocks [18] - The report suggests that the banking sector is likely to experience further internal differentiation in 2026, with larger banks and wealth management banks expected to outperform [18] - Core stock recommendations include Ningbo Bank, China Merchants Bank, Qingdao Bank, and large state-owned banks [18] Section Summaries 1. Current Observation: A-shares in Banking Decline, H-shares Outperform - During the observation period from January 12 to January 16, 2026, the banking sector (CITIC first-level industry) declined by 2.6%, ranking 25th among all industries and underperforming the Wind All A index [16] - The performance of state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks varied, with declines of -2.16%, -3.33%, -1.92%, and -2.24% respectively [16] - H-shares of banks increased by 2.4%, underperforming the Hang Seng Composite Index, while A-share banks showed mixed results [16] 2. Investment Recommendations: Beta Elasticity Dominates Recent Sector Performance - The report indicates that the recent downturn in the banking sector has solidified valuations, with limited further downside expected [18] - The anticipated trends include a shift towards non-bank financial services, wealth management, and disintermediation, with large banks expected to gain an advantage [18] 3. Sector Performance: Banking Sector Decline, Weekly Turnover Rate Increases - The banking sector's weekly turnover rate increased to 1.61%, ranking last among 30 CITIC first-level industries [42] - As of January 16, 2026, the banking sector's latest price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio was 6.89x, and the price-to-book (P/B) ratio was 0.67x, indicating valuations at historical average levels [42] 4. Individual Stock Performance: A-share Banks Overall Decline, City Commercial Banks Relatively Stable - Among A-share banks, Ningbo Bank saw a rise of 4.09%, while Beijing Bank, Huaxia Bank, and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank experienced declines of 4.90%, 4.73%, and 4.33% respectively [16] - In H-shares, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank increased by 3.59% and 3.16%, while China Everbright Bank and Chongqing Bank saw declines of 6.14% and 3.10% [16] 5. Convertible Bond Performance: Average Price Increase - The average price of banking convertible bonds rose by 0.06%, underperforming the Zhongzheng convertible bond index by 1.02 percentage points [17] - The top-performing convertible bonds included Chongqing Bank's convertible bond (+0.58%) and Industrial Bank's convertible bond (+0.18%) [17] 6. Profit Forecast Tracking: 2025 Profit Growth Expectations Remain Stable - For the current period, three banks (China Merchants Bank, Minsheng Bank, and Hangzhou Bank) showed changes in the consensus profit growth expectations for 2025 [17] - The net profit growth and revenue growth expectations for A-share banks in 2025 adjusted slightly downwards by -0.08 percentage points and -0.03 percentage points respectively [17]

Group 1 - Major blue-chip stocks mostly declined, with HSBC Holdings closing at HKD 128.695, up 0.15% from the previous close in Hong Kong; Tencent Holdings closed at HKD 612.833, down 0.76% [2] - Tencent Holdings reported a latest price of HKD 617.500, with a decrease of HKD 4.500 or 0.72%; its ADR price is HKD 612.833, reflecting a decline of HKD 4.667 [3] - HSBC Holdings had a latest price of HKD 128.500, increasing by HKD 0.300 or 0.23%; its ADR price is HKD 128.695, showing a slight increase of HKD 0.195 [3] Group 2 - Other notable stocks include China Construction Bank at HKD 7.830, down 0.25%, and Xiaomi Group at HKD 37.100, down 2.01% [3] - AIA Group saw a decline of HKD 1.300 or 1.53%, closing at HKD 83.550; its ADR price is HKD 83.075, down HKD 0.475 [3] - Meituan-W closed at HKD 100.000, down 0.79%, while JD.com saw a decrease of HKD 1.500 or 1.30%, closing at HKD 113.600 [3]

所谓保管箱服务，其全称为保管箱租赁服务，是银行以出租保管箱形式，代租用人保管贵重物品、有价证券及文件等财物的一项服务业务。券商中国记者从已使用 多年银行保管箱服务的人士处了解到，通常会将重要合同等文件放在保管箱中，"以前也放过金条，在银行买的金条不开封直接就放进去了。" 记者走访多家银行网点发现，目前北京地区保管箱"一箱难求"的情况较为普遍。 "我们这儿现在已经有40多位客户在排队了，但去年只有1位退箱，所以目前也就不再接受新的排队。"工商银行某支行营业部工作人员对记者表示。 近期，银行保管箱"一箱难求"引发关注。券商中国记者近日走访或致电工商银行、农业银行、中国银行、招商银行、民生银行、兴业银行在北京地区的多家分支机 构，仅中国银行一家支行仍有空箱，其余网点均需排队等待或因排队人数过多而不再新增预约。 从排队等待人数来看， 少则三四人，多则三四十人 ；至于等待时长，多数网点工作人员表示无法给出准确时点，因为这一业务已存续很长时间，客户大多为存量 客户，只能等待每年自然退租、腾出空箱；而腾退本身又具有比较强的主观性，因此无法给出明确判断。 "一箱难求"情况普遍 "一般其他网点没有（空箱）了，才会再到我们这儿来 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that both Pudong Development Bank and CITIC Bank have successfully surpassed the 10 trillion yuan asset threshold, expanding the "10 trillion asset club" in China's banking industry to 10 members, which includes six major state-owned banks and four national joint-stock banks [1] - The total asset scale of the 10 banks now accounts for 60% of the entire banking industry, indicating a growing concentration of resources among leading institutions [1] - Chen Guowang, director of the Financial Industry Research Institute, noted that the significant changes in asset scale among banks have created a clear disparity with the classification standards established in 2015, which need to be updated to better reflect the current industry landscape [2] Group 2 - The classification standards for banks, established in 2015, categorize institutions based on asset size, but the threshold for large banks is no longer applicable as multiple institutions have surpassed the 10 trillion yuan mark [2] - The current classification includes various types of banks, such as policy banks, state-owned commercial banks, joint-stock banks, urban commercial banks, rural small banks, and private banks, indicating a diverse banking landscape [2] - Chen Guowang suggests that the asset scale classification standards should be revised to adapt to the new developments in the banking industry [2]

Group 1 - The event held by the China General Chamber of Commerce (CGCC) in New York on January 15, 2026, gathered around 300 attendees from the political and business sectors of both China and the United States [1][3] - The theme of the evening was "Riding Together, Moving Forward," emphasizing the importance of cooperation and trust in a complex and uncertain world [1][3] - CGCC awarded the "Outstanding Partner Award" to Vornado Realty Trust and "Brand Awards" to SANY Group, Saint-O Group Limited, and Pop Mart for their contributions to strengthening Sino-U.S. economic relations and promoting local community and global economic development [3] Group 2 - Michael Franco, President and CFO of Vornado Realty Trust, highlighted the importance of CGCC as a model for U.S.-China cooperation, emphasizing the foundation of mutual respect and long-term commitment in their partnerships [3] - The event featured a performance by Zhiyuan Robotics from China, showcasing a blend of technology and art, which added a dynamic atmosphere to the evening [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Chinese Banking Sector - **Key Metrics**: Total Social Financing (TSF), Loans, Deposits Core Insights 1. **Total Social Financing (TSF) and Loan Growth**: - New TSF in December 2025 reached Rmb 2.2 trillion, a year-over-year decrease of Rmb 0.6 trillion, primarily due to a decrease in government bond issuance by Rmb 1.1 trillion [1] - Government bond issuance for the full year 2025 increased by Rmb 14 trillion (+23% year-over-year), contributing 39% of new TSF, up from 35% in 2024 [1] - Rmb loans to the real economy decreased by Rmb 16 trillion (-7% year-over-year), contributing 45% of new TSF, down from 53% in 2024, indicating weak demand from the real economy [1] 2. **Loan Composition**: - New loans totaled Rmb 0.9 trillion in December 2025, a year-over-year decrease of Rmb 0.1 trillion [1] - Retail credit saw a net decrease of Rmb 0.1 trillion, with short-term retail loans continuing a downward trend since October [1] - Corporate loans increased by Rmb 1.1 trillion (up Rmb 0.6 trillion year-over-year), attributed to a low base from December 2024 due to local government debt swaps [1] 3. **Credit Growth Dynamics**: - For the full year 2025, corporate loans contributed 95% of new credits, compared to 79% in 2024, with corporate loan growth at 9.1% versus 0.5% for retail loans [1] - Discussions with banks suggest that retail credit demand may improve in 2026 as retail risks are digested and consumption stimulus policies take effect [1] 4. **Deposit Trends**: - Deposits increased by Rmb 1.7 trillion, up Rmb 3.1 trillion year-over-year, primarily due to a smaller decline in non-bank financial institution deposits [5] - Household deposit growth remained robust, with a net increase of Rmb 2.6 trillion (up Rmb 0.4 trillion year-over-year) [5] - M2 growth rate was 8.5% year-over-year, rebounding from 8.0% in November, supported by fiscal spending [5] 5. **Market Conditions**: - M1 growth rate declined to 3.8% year-over-year from 4.9% in November, possibly due to a high base from large-scale corporate debt repayments in December 2024 [5] Additional Important Insights - The banking sector is experiencing a shift with corporate lending becoming the primary driver of credit growth, while retail lending remains subdued due to weak consumption and regulatory impacts [1][5] - The overall economic environment is characterized by a cautious outlook on retail credit demand, with expectations for gradual improvement in the coming year [1]

2026年开年，存款市场迎来重要变化。曾作为银行"揽储利器"的大额存单，利率持续下行，部分中小银 行3个月期产品利率首次跌破1%，正式进入"0 字头"区间。 大额存单短期限产品利率跌破1%，成为近年来首次出现的市场现象。 这一变化，不仅正在改写储户对于"高息存款"的旧有认知，更推动整个理财市场迎来资产配置的重构浪 潮。 根据中国货币网公开信息，今年已有超40家银行发布2026年第一期大额存单发行公告。在"期限"和"利 率"两个方面都有明显不同于往年的变化。 记者登陆部分银行手机银行App看到，在大额存单转让专区，投资者可选择购买其他人正在转出的大额 存单，但并不支持所谓"定向转让"的操作。 市场普遍关注，未来大额存单市场走势如何？ 以往相较于国有大行在利率上有所优势的中小银行，在今年开年的新发产品中，也没有表现出"应有 的"优势。 例如，云南腾冲农商银行、隆阳农商行在1月初发行的期限3个月大额存单，利率均为0.95%。淮北农村 商业银行针对机构发行的3个月期单位大额存单，起存金额高达1000万元，利率也仅1%。 这意味着，从利率上看，大额存单新发行产品利率与普通定期存款差距进一步拉平。存款利率下行趋势 在进入 ...

转自：证券时报 人民财讯1月15日电，1月15日，中国银行董事长葛海蛟在中国银行总行大厦会见加中贸易理事会董事会 主席奥利维耶·克雷蒂安·德马雷一行，围绕支持两国企业双向投资、深化中加经贸金融交流、推动绿色 金融合作、拓展人民币国际使用等话题深入交流。双方一致认为，中加经济互补性强、合作潜力巨大。 双方将以此次会见为契机，进一步加强多领域务实合作，持续服务两国企业交流，共享市场发展机遇， 为深化中加经贸关系注入新动力。 ...