公司研究 业绩保持稳健增长，产能规模持续扩张 公司光伏玻璃销量在行业需求旺盛和新增产能释放背景下保持稳步提升态势， 2024H1 光伏玻璃营业收入同比增长 9.93%至 96.59 亿元，毛利率则在光伏玻璃 价格 4~5 月小幅反弹和纯碱、天然气等主要原料价格阶段性下跌的背景下有所 修复，2024H1 光伏玻璃业务毛利率同比增长 4.68 个 pct 至 24.70%。 在光伏产业链价格非理性下跌叠加光伏玻璃新增产能规模持续提升的背景下 （2024H1 新投产窑炉日熔量超过 1.7 万吨），光伏玻璃企业盈利受到明显压制， 截止目前行业冷修产能超过 1 万吨/天（公司冷修产能 2600 吨/天），很多新投 资项目宣布终止或延期。与此同时公司保持了稳健的产能扩张节奏（2024H1 公 司资本开支规模为 26.12 亿元，同比增长 53.02%），截止 2024H1 公司光伏玻 璃总产能为 2.3 万吨/天（2023 年底为 2.06 万吨/天），国内的安徽项目、南通 项目以及海外项目均处于正常推进状态。 公司现有产能中，千吨级及以上的大型窑炉占比超 90%，与小窑炉相比，大窑 炉内部的燃烧和温度更加稳定，单耗更低 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is downgraded to "Neutral" with a target price of HKD 11.09, reflecting a potential upside of 5.6% from the current price of HKD 10.50 [1][2][7]. Core Insights - The company's gross margin exceeded expectations, but the price of photovoltaic glass continues to hit new lows, leading to the downgrade of the rating to neutral [1]. - In Q2, the company reported revenues and net profit of RMB 4.97 billion and RMB 739 million, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 15% and 29% [1]. - The average price of photovoltaic glass saw a slight increase quarter-on-quarter, while the decline in prices of soda ash and natural gas contributed to a decrease in costs, pushing the gross margin up by 5.0 percentage points to 26.5%, the highest since Q4 2021 [1]. - The company’s production capacity decreased by 200 tons to 20,400 tons compared to the beginning of the year, leading to a decline in market share [1]. - The photovoltaic glass price has been continuously decreasing, with a significant oversupply in the market, resulting in a 10% and 7% drop in prices in July and August, respectively [1]. - The report anticipates a slight rebound in prices in October and November due to seasonal demand, but warns of a potential decline again in Q1 next year as production ramps up [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 21.524 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 39.2%, followed by a decline of 10.1% in 2024 [2][8]. - Net profit for 2023 is estimated at RMB 2.76 billion, with a projected decline to RMB 1.979 billion in 2024 [2][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is expected to be RMB 1.17, decreasing to RMB 0.84 in 2024 [2][8]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 8.2 for 2023 and 11.4 for 2024 [2][8]. - The gross margin is expected to decline from 22.4% in 2023 to 18.5% in 2024 [5][8].

福莱特（601865.SH） 优于大市 二季度盈利改善，三季度盈利或阶段性承压 24Q3 玻璃价格显著下滑，单平盈利承压。24Q3 受到行业新增产能集中释放， 及组件企业开工率下行影响，光伏玻璃价格显著下滑。当前 2.0mm 玻璃单平 含税均价为 13.75 元，较 6 月末下跌 2.5 元。同期重质纯碱价格累计下跌 221 元/吨，累计降低光伏玻璃单平成本约 0.3 元，玻璃企业盈利承压。 风险提示：光伏玻璃产销不达预期的风险；行业竞争加剧的风险；应收账款 坏账风险；公司降本不及预期的风险。 投资建议：考虑 24Q3 光伏玻璃价格持续下滑，及下游组件客户经营承压或 导致公司应收账款账期增加，我们假设 2024-2026 年公司光伏玻璃销售量 11.9/13.8/17.2 亿平，单平不含税价格 15.7/15.1/15.3 元，单平毛利 3.4/3.0/3.3 元，单平净利 1.9/1.7/2.0 元。下调盈利预测，预计公司 2024-2026 年实现营业收入 204/225/282 亿元（原预测 236/275/314 亿元）， 同比增速-5%/11%/25%；实现归母净利润 23.0/24.9/37.3 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][5][11] Core Views - The company's Q2 gross margin improved quarter-on-quarter, indicating a potential turnaround in the industry supply-demand relationship [2][5] - The company reported a 10.5% year-on-year increase in revenue for H1 2024, reaching 10.696 billion yuan, and a 38.14% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, amounting to 1.499 billion yuan [5][6] - The report anticipates a continued increase in market share due to the company's leading position in the photovoltaic glass sector and ongoing capacity clearance in the industry [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 10.696 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.5% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2024 was 1.499 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 38.14% [5] - The gross margin for Q2 2024 was reported at 26.5%, up by 5.0 percentage points from the previous quarter [5][6] - The company’s revenue from photovoltaic glass in H1 2024 was 9.659 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.9% [6] - The projected net profit for 2024-2026 is adjusted to 3.104 billion, 3.479 billion, and 4.690 billion yuan respectively [5][7] Industry Position and Outlook - The company maintains a strong position in the photovoltaic glass industry, with over 90% of its large furnaces being of the thousand-ton level, leading to lower costs and higher yield rates [6] - The industry is experiencing a capacity clearance, with over 10,000 tons of capacity already shut down as of June 30, 2024, which is expected to alleviate the oversupply situation [6] - The report highlights that many new expansion projects are being delayed or canceled due to declining profitability and stricter policy approvals, which may further stabilize the supply-demand dynamics in the industry [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark index within the next six months [3][17]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated significant leadership advantages and is expected to continue its robust growth trajectory despite market challenges [2][7]. - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 10.696 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, and a net profit of 1.499 billion yuan, up 38.1% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 23.78% [7]. - The company is strategically expanding its production capacity while maintaining a rational approach due to the oversupply in the photovoltaic glass market [7]. - The report forecasts a recovery in profitability as industry capacity is rationalized and new projects are delayed, leading to improved supply-demand dynamics [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 21.524 billion yuan in 2023, 19.174 billion yuan in 2024, 23.637 billion yuan in 2025, and 28.337 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 39%, -11%, 23%, and 20% respectively [2][10]. - Net profit estimates are 2.760 billion yuan for 2023, 2.436 billion yuan for 2024, 3.820 billion yuan for 2025, and 4.888 billion yuan for 2026, reflecting growth rates of 30%, -12%, 57%, and 28% respectively [2][10]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.18 yuan in 2023, 1.04 yuan in 2024, 1.63 yuan in 2025, and 2.09 yuan in 2026 [2][10]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.5 for 2024, 9.9 for 2025, and 7.7 for 2026, suggesting a favorable valuation relative to earnings growth [2][10]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to be 1.5 in 2024, 1.3 in 2025, and 1.2 in 2026, indicating a strong asset base relative to market valuation [2][10].

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·光伏设备 福莱特（601865） 2024 年中报点评：24Q2 量减利增，Q3 扩大 冷修待需求恢复 2024 年 08 月 28 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------|-------|-------|---------|-------|-------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 15461 | 21524 | 21417 | 25639 | 30405 | | 同比（%） | 77.44 | 39.21 | (0.50) | 19.72 | 18.59 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 2123 | 2760 | 2180 | 3008 | 3952 | | 同比（%） | 0.13 | 30.00 | (21.02) | 37.99 | 31.40 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.90 | 1.17 | 0.93 | 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with projected earnings per share (PE) ratios of 15 and 8 times for 2024 in A and H shares respectively [2]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for the first half of 2024 reached 10.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.5 billion yuan, up 38.1% year-on-year [2]. - In Q2, the company achieved a net profit of 740 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 28.8% [2]. - The company's profitability improved significantly in Q2, with a gross margin of 26.45%, up 6.5 percentage points year-on-year, and a net margin of 14.92%, up 1.7 percentage points [2]. - The overseas subsidiary in Vietnam generated revenue of 1.14 billion yuan with a net profit of 320 million yuan, indicating a net margin of 28%, which is significantly higher than domestic operations [2]. - The report anticipates a reduction in supply pressure in the photovoltaic glass market due to recent production cuts, with an estimated 8,300 tons per day of capacity being idled since early July [2]. Summary by Sections Performance Analysis - Q2 revenue was 4.97 billion yuan, a 15.2% increase year-on-year but a 13.2% decrease quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to a decline in component production and falling glass prices [2]. - The company faced minor setbacks from inventory and fixed asset impairments totaling 0.12 billion and 0.81 billion yuan respectively, which slightly affected Q2 performance [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 have been adjusted to 2.8 billion, 3.6 billion, and 4.7 billion yuan respectively, reflecting the company's latest production and expansion plans [2]. - The current share prices correspond to a PE ratio of 15 for 2024, indicating a favorable valuation for potential investors [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with projected earnings per share corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 15/8 times for 2024 [2]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the first half of 2024 reached 10.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.5 billion yuan, up 38.1% year-on-year [2]. - The second quarter saw a significant improvement in profitability, with a net profit of 740 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 28.8% [2]. - The overseas production capacity has shown a notable premium, with the Vietnamese subsidiary generating 1.14 billion yuan in revenue and a net profit of 320 million yuan, resulting in a net profit margin of 28% [2]. - The recent reduction in photovoltaic glass production is expected to alleviate supply and demand pressures in the near future, with industry capacity reductions reaching 8,300 tons per day since early July [2]. Summary by Sections Performance Analysis - In Q2, the company achieved a revenue of 4.97 billion yuan, a 15.2% increase year-on-year, but a 13.2% decrease quarter-on-quarter due to a decline in component production and falling glass prices [2]. - The gross margin for Q2 was 26.45%, up 6.5 percentage points year-on-year and 5.0 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, benefiting from lower raw material costs [2]. - The net profit margin for Q2 was 14.92%, reflecting a 1.7 percentage point increase quarter-on-quarter, despite minor impacts from inventory and fixed asset impairment provisions [2]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted to 2.8 billion, 3.6 billion, and 4.7 billion yuan respectively, with current A/H share prices corresponding to a PE ratio of 15/8 times for 2024 [2].

本次股票上市流通日期为 2024 年 9 月 3 日。 | 证券代码：601865 | 证券简称：福莱特 | 公告编号：2024-080 | | --- | --- | --- | | 转债代码：113059 | 转债简称：福莱转债 | | 福莱特玻璃集团股份有限公司 关于 2020 年 A 股限制性股票激励计划首次授予部分 第四个解除限售期解除限售条件成就暨上市公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性依法承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 本次股票上市类型为股权激励股份；股票认购方式为网下，上市股数为 860,000 股。 本次股票上市流通总数为 860,000 股。 福莱特玻璃集团股份有限公司（以下简称"本公司"或"公司"）于 2024 年 8 月 27 日召开第六届董事会第五十八次会议和第六届监事会第四十三次会议审议通过 了《关于 2020 年 A 股限制性股票激励计划首次授予部分第四个解除限售期解除限 售条件成就的议案》，同意对符合公司 2020 年 A 股限制性股票激励计划（以下简 称"本激励计划"）首次授予部分第四个限售 ...

上海信公科技集团股份有限公司 关于 福莱特玻璃集团股份有限公司 2020 年 A 股限制性股票激励计划 首次授予部分第四个解除限售期 解除限售相关事项 之 独立财务顾问报告 独立财务顾问： 二〇二四年八月 上海信公科技集团股份有限公司 独立财务顾问报告 目 录 | 第一章 声 明 | | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 释 义 | | 5 | | 第三章 基本假设 | | 6 | | 第四章 本次激励计划履行的审批程序 | | 7 | | 第五章 本次激励计划首次授予部分第四个解除限售期解除限售条件成就情况 | | 11 | | 一、本激励计划首次授予部分第四个限售期届满的说明 | | 11 | | 二、本激励计划首次授予部分第四个解除限售期解除限售条件成就的说明 | | 11 | | 三、本次可解除限售限制性股票的激励对象及可解除限售限制性股票数量 | | 12 | | 第六章 独立财务顾问的核查意见 | | 14 | 2 2、本独立财务顾问本着勤勉、审慎、对上市公司全体股东尽责的态度，依 据客观公正的原则，对本次股权激励事项进行了尽职调查义务，有充分理由确信 所发表的专业意见与 ...