携程年赚172亿，毛利率高达81%，甚至超过腾讯和阿里，却因后台"调价助手"强制干预商家定价，被 多家酒店实名举报。这究竟是怎么一回事呢？ ...

Summary of Trip.com Group Ltd Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: Trip.com Group Ltd (TCOM.O) - **Industry**: China Internet and Other Services, specifically focusing on the travel industry in the Asia Pacific region Key Points and Arguments 1. **Upcoming Catalyst**: The travel industry data release around the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival is expected to be a significant catalyst for share prices [1][2] 2. **Holiday Data Expectations**: Strong travel data is anticipated due to the overlap of the two holidays, which is not the case in 2024, where a 6.3% year-over-year (YoY) growth was recorded [2] 3. **Impact on Earnings**: The holiday data will be crucial for TCOM's 4Q25 earnings, with the Ministry of Cultural and Tourism expected to report tourist receipts data on October 9 [2] 4. **Potential Outcomes**: - Scenario 1: Tourist receipts up 7% YoY (40% probability) - Scenario 2: Tourist receipts up 8% YoY or above (40% probability) - Scenario 3: Tourist receipts up 6% YoY or below (20% probability) [3] 5. **Stock Price Implications**: - Scenario 1: Share price remains flat (US$77) - Scenario 2: Share price increases by 5%+ (US$81) - Scenario 3: Share price decreases by 5% (US$73) [4][5] Financial Metrics and Projections 1. **Current Stock Rating**: Overweight with a price target of US$83.00, indicating an 8% upside from the current price of US$76.79 [6] 2. **Market Capitalization**: Approximately US$52.886 billion [6] 3. **Earnings Projections**: - EPS (Rmb): 26.20 for FY 2024, increasing to 33.50 by FY 2027 - Revenue (Rmb million): Expected to grow from 53,294 in FY 2024 to 76,381 in FY 2027 [6] 4. **Valuation Ratios**: - P/E Ratio: Expected to range from 20.4 in FY 2024 to 16.6 in FY 2027 - ROE: Projected to be around 13.8% in FY 2024, stabilizing around 12.1% by FY 2027 [6] Risks and Considerations 1. **Upside Risks**: - Strong pent-up demand in the travel sector - Reduced competition in lower-tier cities leading to improved margins [12] 2. **Downside Risks**: - Softer macroeconomic growth in China affecting price-sensitive consumers - Increased competition from domestic players like Tongcheng Travel and Meituan [13] Additional Insights - The upcoming holiday data is viewed as a critical indicator for both Trip.com and its competitor Tongcheng Travel, suggesting a broader impact on the online travel agency (OTA) sector [2][4] - The analysis indicates a cautious optimism regarding the travel industry's recovery, contingent on macroeconomic conditions and competitive dynamics [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip reported a net profit of 4.8 billion yuan in Q2, a significant increase from 3.8 billion yuan in the same period last year, leading to scrutiny from regulatory authorities due to alleged price manipulation practices [1][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Ctrip's net profit for Q2 reached 4.8 billion yuan, marking a 26% year-on-year increase [5]. - The fastest-growing segment for Ctrip in Q2 was "accommodation booking," generating 6.2 billion yuan in revenue, up 21% year-on-year [5]. - In contrast, the combined profit of the top two hotel groups in the industry was only 1.83 billion yuan, highlighting the disparity in profitability [5]. Group 2: Regulatory Scrutiny - Ctrip was summoned by the Zhengzhou Market Supervision Administration for violating e-commerce laws and regulations, specifically regarding unreasonable restrictions on transaction prices [3][4]. - This marks the second time within 45 days that Ctrip has faced scrutiny for price manipulation, following a previous meeting with the Guizhou Market Supervision Administration [4]. Group 3: Industry Impact - Hotel operators expressed satisfaction with the regulatory actions against Ctrip, as they believe the platform has been profiting excessively at their expense [4][5]. - The regulatory body has imposed three corrective measures on Ctrip, including revising contract terms, optimizing pricing tools, and establishing a long-term compliance mechanism, which may lead to a restructuring of operational costs [4]. Group 4: Pricing Practices - Ctrip's "pricing assistant" tool has been criticized for automatically adjusting hotel prices without consent, often leading to lower prices that harm hotel profitability [22][31]. - The tool operates by monitoring competitor prices and adjusting hotel rates accordingly, which has led to complaints from hotel owners about loss of pricing autonomy [22][25]. - Many hotel operators have reported that the pricing assistant can change rates multiple times a day, creating significant operational challenges [22][25]. Group 5: Market Position - Ctrip holds a dominant position in the hotel and travel market, with a GMV market share of 56%, indicating that over half of the market transactions occur through its platform [34]. - The platform's strong market presence allows it to exert significant pressure on hotel operators, who feel compelled to comply with its pricing and commission structures [34].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the overseas education sector, indicating a favorable investment rating due to the maturation of profit-oriented classification management and market reforms driving the expansion of higher education institutions [1][2]. Group 2: Core Insights - The conditions for profit-oriented classification management in private education are gradually maturing, with quality improvement in private schools being a crucial prerequisite for this transition. The report anticipates an acceleration in the implementation of profit-oriented policies for private schools, which will enhance the supply of higher education while ensuring quality [1][9]. - The establishment of profit distribution rights for private schools has led to increased certainty in asset returns. The average profit margin for the six listed private higher education companies is approximately 30.9%, with an average ROE of 12%. This indicates a robust commercial model that seeks to expand scale and revenue [2][10]. - The report highlights a significant mismatch between supply and demand in the higher education sector, with the number of college admissions only increasing from 10.36 million in 2021 to 10.69 million in 2024, while the number of high school graduates entering the college entrance examination has risen from 10.78 million in 2021 to 13.42 million in 2024. This has resulted in a declining college admission rate from 96.1% in 2021 to 79.6% in 2024 [2][10]. - The report suggests that the current quality standards achieved by listed private higher education companies will lay a solid foundation for the reintroduction of profit-oriented choices, which is expected to enhance the valuation of the higher education sector [2][11]. Group 3: Company Focus - The report recommends focusing on several key companies in the overseas education sector, including Yuhua Education, Zhongjiao Holdings, China Kepei, Neusoft Ruixin, Zhonghui Group, New Higher Education, Xijiao International Holdings, and Huaxia Holdings, as they are well-positioned to benefit from the anticipated policy changes [3][11][14].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - AI is enhancing the operational efficiency of OTA platforms, optimizing user experience, and creating new revenue growth points. AI technology has penetrated core business areas such as customer service, pricing, revenue management, and itinerary planning, becoming a key driver for cost reduction and competitive advantage [3][6] - The report highlights specific companies in the sector, including Trip.com Group (09961, not rated) and Tongcheng Travel (00780, not rated) as potential investment targets [3] Summary by Sections AI Integration in OTA Platforms - OTA platforms are leveraging AI for cost reduction and service upgrades, significantly improving operational efficiency and user experience. For instance, Tongcheng Travel's "Chengxin AI" system has increased booking efficiency by over 80% compared to traditional channels, while Trip.com has positioned AI as a top priority, saving 20% in labor costs [6][7] - Dynamic pricing and AI revenue management are enhancing profitability. AI technologies analyze vast amounts of data for accurate price predictions and optimization, with companies like Hopper achieving a 90% accuracy rate in predicting airfare fluctuations [6][7] - AI is also optimizing pre-trip decision-making through personalized itinerary planning. Booking Holdings has introduced an AI Trip Planner that generates customized travel suggestions based on natural language queries, with over 60% of users utilizing it during bookings or travel [6][7] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that as multi-modal large model technologies mature and real-time data processing capabilities improve, OTA platforms will transition from "precise recommendations" to "predictive services," creating a truly user-centered intelligent travel ecosystem [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing issues between hotels and Ctrip regarding the platform's pricing intervention, highlighting complaints from multiple hotels about unauthorized price adjustments and the challenges faced in canceling the pricing assistant feature [1][3][6]. Group 1: Issues Faced by Hotels - Multiple hotels in Zhengzhou and Wuhan reported that Ctrip's pricing assistant was interfering with their pricing strategies, leading to forced price reductions without prior consent [1][6]. - Hotel managers expressed frustration over the inability to effectively communicate with Ctrip to resolve these pricing issues, often leading to a cycle of temporary cancellations of the pricing assistant that would be reinstated shortly after [3][7]. - One hotel manager noted that the platform had previously reduced room prices by over 50%, significantly impacting their revenue during peak holiday periods [3][7]. Group 2: Actions Taken by Hotels - After persistent communication, one hotel manager was able to cancel the pricing assistant, but expressed uncertainty about how long this would last, indicating a lack of trust in the platform's practices [3][6]. - Another hotel manager decided to delist their hotel from Ctrip after repeated unsuccessful attempts to negotiate pricing, citing excessive and frequent price adjustments as the primary reason [6][8]. - The article mentions that hotels are now exploring alternative platforms to reduce reliance on Ctrip, indicating a shift in order sources from a previous 4:6 ratio to 3:7 in favor of other platforms [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the travel demand is expected to increase significantly during the 2025 National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, with a search volume increase of over 20% year-on-year [1] - Flight bookings for both domestic and international routes show a notable recovery, with domestic flight bookings exceeding 3.26 million per day, up 26% year-on-year, and international bookings exceeding 1.16 million, up 15% [2] - High-quality hotel bookings are experiencing a surge, with a year-on-year increase of 58% for popular hotels and over 20% for high-quality hotels during the holiday period [3] Group 2 - The outbound travel market is benefiting from visa-free policies, with significant increases in travel to South Korea, the Middle East, and Africa, with outbound travel numbers up 130% year-on-year [4] - Investment recommendations include focusing on OTA sectors such as Tongcheng Travel and Trip.com Group, as well as companies in the ice and snow industry like Changbai Mountain and Dalian Shengya, and tourism retail companies like China Duty Free Group and Wangfujing [5]

Group 1 - Ctrip held a release event for the "Ctrip Reputation List 2025 Inbound Tourism Trend Guide" in Incheon, South Korea, aimed at providing inspiration for inbound tourism from China to global travelers [1] - In the first half of 2025, the number of Korean tourists booking trips to China through Ctrip increased by 125% compared to the same period in 2024, with Korean users showing the highest overseas travel demand among Asian countries, accounting for 71% [3] - Major cities attracting Korean inbound tourists include Shanghai, Beijing, Qingdao, Guangzhou, and Chengdu, while natural attractions like Zhangjiajie, Huangshan, and Jiuzhaigou saw a 110% increase in search volume [3] Group 2 - Ctrip's Korean General Manager emphasized that Korean tourists are seeking more than just sightseeing; they desire a combination of urban leisure, cultural experiences, and natural healing, which the Ctrip Reputation List addresses [3] - The partnership between Ctrip and Paradise City is based on a shared pursuit of high-quality travel experiences, with Paradise City offering luxury accommodations and diverse cultural experiences [3] - Paradise City is preparing to welcome Chinese tourists by enhancing Chinese language services, payment methods, and food experiences tailored to Chinese preferences, alongside targeted social media marketing [4]

Core Insights - Ctrip released the "2025 Inbound and Outbound Tourism Trend Guide" in Incheon, South Korea, indicating a 125% year-on-year increase in the number of Korean tourists booking trips to China in the first half of 2025 [1] Group 1: Tourism Trends - The top five destinations for Korean tourists in China are Shanghai, Beijing, Qingdao, Guangzhou, and Chengdu [1] - Ctrip's recommendation list for Korean tourists includes various themes based on order volume and user feedback, such as "Must-Visit Night Tours," "Family-Friendly Hotels," and a new "Hometown Flavor Restaurants" list [1] Group 2: Night Tour Recommendations - The night scenery list features 30 attractions, including the Bund in Shanghai and Hongya Cave in Chongqing, with multi-language reservation and sharing capabilities [1] Group 3: Verification System - The recommendation list employs a three-tier verification system involving feedback from Ctrip's black diamond users, initial review by the business team, and secondary validation by industry experts [1] - The platform claims that the list can generate an additional 10% in order revenue for merchants, with plans to invite global verification experts to provide over a thousand on-site tips across 31 provinces in China over the next year [1]

Core Points - Zhengzhou Market Supervision Administration conducted an administrative interview with Ctrip Travel Network, requiring comprehensive rectification and standardized operations to maintain fair competition and protect the legitimate rights of platform operators [1][5] - The platform was found to have violated the Electronic Commerce Law and the Interim Provisions on the Prohibition of Unfair Competition by using service agreements, transaction rules, and technical means to impose unreasonable restrictions on transactions and pricing of platform operators [1][5] - A corrective notice was issued on September 4, 2025, mandating Ctrip to complete contract revisions and pricing tool optimizations within a specified timeframe [1][5] Regulatory Emphasis - Fair competition is emphasized as the core of the market economy, with internet platform companies urged to enhance legal awareness and actively cooperate with regulatory authorities [2] - Companies are required to establish a regular legal education mechanism to improve compliance capabilities among management and operational staff [2] - The importance of respecting merchants' autonomy and correcting unreasonable restrictions, such as forced service activation and inability to exit, is highlighted [2] Follow-up Actions - Zhengzhou Market Supervision Administration will continue to monitor Ctrip's rectification progress and conduct inspections to ensure compliance with responsibilities [2]