Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Tongcheng Travel (00780) demonstrated stable performance in Q2, with revenue meeting expectations and adjusted net profit slightly exceeding expectations [1] - Looking ahead to Q3 2025, the hotel revenue is expected to maintain stability, which will help offset the slowdown in transportation ticketing business [1] - The report anticipates a 10% year-on-year increase in Q3 revenue to 5.5 billion RMB, with adjusted net profit expected to grow by 17% year-on-year to 1.06 billion RMB [1] Group 2 - The contribution from the high-margin hotel business is expected to rise, along with improvements in marketing efficiency and operational leverage, which will continue to drive profit margin growth [1] - The target price for Tongcheng Travel has been raised from 25.9 HKD to 27.2 HKD, while maintaining an "outperform" rating [1]

国内酒店业务好于行业表现 1)住宿：2Q25 ADR同比实现正增长，好于行业表现，反映用户消费习惯变化，公司三星酒店间夜量占 比同比提升4个百分点;此外公司继续深化与全球供应商的合作，加强中国游客出境游热门目的地的布 局，国际酒店间夜继续保持较快增长。暑期表现来看，公司酒店ADR继续保持同比正增长，旅游需求 具有韧性。公司预计3Q25 酒店间夜量同比增长10-15%，ADR低个位数增长，好于行业平均，该行预计 3Q25酒店收入同比增长13%。 2)交通：2Q25国际机票量同增超30%，国际机票收入占交通收入比例超6%(同比增长2个百分点)。由于 去年暑期旅游情绪旺盛，根据飞常准的高频数据，2025.6.20-8.16国内航班客运量同比增长仅3%，公司 国内机票增速和行业增速类似，但公司出境机票继续维持高增，叠加变现率提升，该行预计3Q25交通 收入同增9%。 出境业务和酒店管理业务是未来增长的双引擎 智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，维持同程旅行(00780)25/26年收入和盈利预期，维持跑赢行业评 级，维持目标价23港元(对应15x/12x 25e和26e Non-IFRS市盈率)，上行空间为17%，公 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the intensifying competition in the OTA (Online Travel Agency) industry, particularly with the entry of new players like JD.com and the aggressive strategies of existing platforms such as Douyin and Meituan, highlighting the evolving landscape and market dynamics in the hotel booking sector [3][4][12]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The OTA market is experiencing a significant shift, with Douyin investing heavily in local life services and offering substantial platform subsidies to attract users [4][5]. - The competitive landscape is characterized by a "7+2+1" market structure, where the Ctrip group dominates with a 70% market share, followed by Meituan and Douyin as emerging players [10][24]. - Ctrip's user base reached 165 million by August last year, leveraging dynamic commissions and strategic partnerships to strengthen its market position [9][10]. Group 2: Competitive Strategies - Douyin's strategy includes live streaming and promotional pricing, aiming to capture a significant share of the hotel booking market, particularly in the mid-range segment [5][30]. - JD.com’s entry into the OTA space is seen as a move to enhance its product offerings and compete more effectively with Meituan, focusing on local life services [13][15]. - The competition is intensifying as platforms like Meituan and Douyin target the mid to low-end hotel market, while Ctrip maintains a focus on high-end hotels and business travel [20][22]. Group 3: User Behavior and Market Trends - There is a growing trend of price-sensitive users comparing multiple platforms, leading to a shift in hotel partnerships as they seek better deals [28][30]. - The rise of short video and social media platforms is reshaping consumer behavior, with users increasingly relying on these channels for travel bookings [33]. - Douyin's hotel booking GMV is projected to reach 90 billion in 2024, reflecting a 50% increase from 2023, driven by its content ecosystem and promotional strategies [32][33]. Group 4: Challenges and Opportunities - The hotel industry remains fragmented, with low barriers to entry, making it crucial for OTA platforms to establish strong supply chain relationships and maintain pricing stability [14][18]. - Despite aggressive pricing strategies, the sustainability of low-price competition is questioned, as hotels prioritize stable pricing and brand recognition when choosing OTA partners [18][19]. - The article suggests that while new entrants like JD.com may disrupt the market, the established players like Ctrip still hold significant advantages in terms of user loyalty and service offerings [25][26].

Core Insights - The competition in the local lifestyle service sector, particularly in the instant retail and travel industry, is intensifying among major players like JD, Alibaba, and Meituan, each adopting aggressive strategies to capture market share [2][6][36]. Group 1: Instant Retail and Order Volume - Taobao Flash Sale and Ele.me announced that their daily order volume for instant retail has surpassed 80 million as of July 14, while Meituan reported 150 million orders on July 12, and JD exceeded 25 million in June [1]. Group 2: Local Lifestyle Services - The local lifestyle service sector encompasses a wide range of services beyond food delivery, including travel and accommodation, with Meituan leading in this space [2]. - Meituan's core local business includes food delivery, in-store services, and travel, indicating a comprehensive approach to local services [2]. Group 3: JD's Entry into Travel - JD launched a "JD Hotel PLUS Membership Plan" on June 18, 2025, offering up to three years of zero commission, marking a significant push into the travel sector [4]. - Following JD's move, Alibaba integrated Ele.me and Fliggy into its China e-commerce group, showcasing its ambitions in the travel sector [5]. Group 4: Competition Dynamics - The competition among JD, Alibaba, and Meituan is reshaping the landscape of the local lifestyle service sector, particularly in travel [6]. - The online travel agency (OTA) market is witnessing strategic shifts, with players like Tongcheng Travel maintaining growth despite fierce competition [8][11]. Group 5: Tongcheng Travel's Market Position - Tongcheng Travel has shown impressive growth, with a market share of 15% in the OTA sector, trailing behind Ctrip [8]. - As of December 2024, Tongcheng's user base reached 218 million, significantly outpacing competitors like Ctrip and Fliggy [8]. Group 6: Financial Performance - Tongcheng reported a revenue of 43.77 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a 13.2% increase year-on-year, with adjusted net profit rising by 41.1% [21]. - The company's revenue primarily comes from transportation ticket bookings, with accommodation bookings contributing 27.1% of total revenue [21]. Group 7: Supply Chain and Partnerships - Tongcheng's supply chain is partially shared with Ctrip, allowing it to enhance its product offerings and competitiveness [22][24]. - The partnership with Tencent has provided Tongcheng with a significant advantage in user acquisition through WeChat [12][17]. Group 8: Market Challenges - The OTA market is facing increased competition, with hotels seeking to reduce reliance on platforms by building direct sales channels [40]. - The rise of self-operated channels among hotels poses a long-term challenge to OTA platforms like Tongcheng [40]. Group 9: Future Outlook - The domestic tourism industry is recovering, with projections indicating a rise in tourist numbers and spending [35]. - However, the competitive landscape is evolving, with established players like Meituan and emerging platforms like Douyin intensifying their focus on the travel sector [39][43].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Travel and Hospitality Sector Key Points - **Market Dynamics**: The travel and hospitality sector is experiencing demand resilience, with a notable shift in channels and brand iterations. Ctrip's stock has been affected by the slowdown in outbound travel growth and increased overseas investments, while Tongcheng has performed well due to low valuations and favorable policies [1][4]. - **Impact of Competition**: JD's entry into the travel and hospitality sector has limited impact on Ctrip but may cause a 10% decline in Tongcheng's performance due to price-sensitive users opting for platforms with higher subsidies [5][16]. - **Performance Trends**: Ctrip's performance in Q2 may be influenced by lower-than-expected overseas investments and geopolitical disturbances, but strong summer travel demand is expected to benefit OTA platforms [6][8]. Financial Insights - **Ctrip's Financial Performance**: Ctrip's outbound travel growth has decreased from 50-60% last year to 15-20% this year, with a corresponding decline in profit margins due to lower ticket prices and increased overseas investments [3][6]. - **Hotel Industry Recovery**: The hotel industry showed improvement in Q2, particularly during the May Day holiday, although June saw a slight decline compared to May. The overall hotel performance is expected to improve in the summer due to stable supply growth [7][8]. Company-Specific Insights Ctrip - **Market Position**: Ctrip has a strong advantage in high-end exclusive inventory, which mitigates the impact of JD's entry into the market [5]. - **Future Outlook**: The company is expected to benefit from increased booking volumes during the summer, with potential for upward movement in stock prices if high-frequency data improves [6][12]. Tongcheng - **Market Strategy**: Tongcheng is focusing on integrating exclusive travel resources and price subsidies to expand its market share, particularly in the mid-to-high-end hotel segment [3][14]. Yaduo - **Growth and Expansion**: Yaduo is experiencing rapid expansion with a store growth rate of 25-30%. The retail business is performing well, with plans to launch new products in the second half of the year [10][11]. - **Valuation and Market Position**: Yaduo's valuation is around 20 times earnings, with a growth rate of 25-30%, indicating a favorable cost-performance ratio [11]. Industry Challenges and Opportunities Supply Chain and Market Dynamics - **Supply Expansion Challenges**: The hotel industry faces challenges related to supply expansion, with a potential turning point in the next 6-12 months as investment returns for franchisees lengthen, affecting signing speeds [9][21]. - **Market Segmentation**: High-end hotels are focusing on renovations in high-tier cities, while lower-tier cities are expanding rapidly, indicating a significant growth potential in the mid-range and economy segments [20][21]. Competitive Landscape - **Key Competitive Factors**: The competitive landscape in the hotel online travel market is driven by resource integration and fulfillment capabilities. OTA platforms are focusing on consolidating hotel resources to provide more choices for consumers [13][18]. - **Market Share Trends**: Recent trends show a stable increase in market share for leading companies, with high-end brands like Yaduo and international brands experiencing slight growth [19]. Conclusion The travel and hospitality sector is navigating a complex landscape characterized by competitive pressures, changing consumer preferences, and evolving market dynamics. Companies like Ctrip, Tongcheng, and Yaduo are adapting their strategies to leverage growth opportunities while addressing challenges related to supply and market competition. The upcoming months will be critical for assessing the recovery trajectory of the industry, particularly in light of summer travel demand and potential shifts in consumer behavior.

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the travel chain industry [1][5][7]. Core Insights - The demand for service consumption shows resilience, with different opportunities corresponding to various urban depths and generational segments in China [1][61]. - The online travel agency (OTA) sector benefits from the recovery in tourism and upstream expansion, with leading companies maintaining stable profit margins [2][62]. - The hotel industry faces a supply-demand imbalance, with leading players actively seeking to expand their market share through refined operations and high-quality growth [3][63]. Demand Trends - Service consumption is experiencing robust growth, with a notable increase in consumer confidence and spending [14][18]. - The tourism sector is expected to maintain strong demand, particularly during the summer season, with a significant increase in travel intentions [35][54]. - Different generational groups exhibit varying consumption patterns, with younger consumers prioritizing experiences and social connections [25][40]. Platform Dynamics - The ecological value of platforms is becoming increasingly prominent, with competition intensifying as new players enter the market [2][62]. - Leading platforms are leveraging their ecosystem to enhance supplier relationships and drive revenue growth through innovative product offerings [64][65]. - The competitive landscape remains stable, with established players maintaining their market positions despite new entrants [67][69]. Hotel Industry Insights - The hotel supply is expanding, with a projected growth rate of 5-10% in 2025, while the RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room) is showing signs of recovery [3][63]. - High-end and mid-range hotels are focusing on brand differentiation and operational efficiency to capture market share [3][64]. - The trend towards chain hotels is expected to continue, particularly in lower-tier cities where expansion opportunities are significant [3][63]. Investment Recommendations - Short-term demand for travel is anticipated to remain strong, with specific recommendations for companies such as Ctrip Group, Meituan, and Atour [4][7]. - The report suggests that companies with efficient operational models and strong brand recognition are likely to outperform in the medium term [4][7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the emergence of a new growth narrative in China's economy driven by the rapid development of AI technology and the resilient recovery of the private sector [1][2] - Goldman Sachs has introduced a "Chinese Prominent 10" portfolio, comprising ten major private listed companies in China, which has sparked discussions about the revaluation of Chinese assets [1][2] - The total market capitalization of the "Chinese Prominent 10" reached approximately 11.46 trillion yuan as of June 17, 2025, indicating significant market presence [4][6] Group 2 - The portfolio includes companies from various sectors such as technology, consumer goods, automotive, and pharmaceuticals, reflecting the direction of China's economic transformation and upgrading [3] - Key players in the technology sector include Tencent, Alibaba, Xiaomi, and NetEase, while the consumer sector features Meituan, Midea, and Anta [3][6] - The report indicates that the compound annual growth rate of earnings for this portfolio is expected to reach 13% over the next two years, with an attractive current price-to-earnings ratio of 16 times [2][8] Group 3 - Since the end of 2020, private enterprises in China have faced significant market challenges, with a cumulative market value loss of nearly 4 trillion USD, but they are gradually regaining market vitality [3][10] - The report emphasizes that the "Chinese Prominent 10" has the potential to enhance market concentration and change investor perceptions of Chinese assets, similar to the "Seven Sisters" in the US market [7][13] - The policy environment for private enterprises has improved, with increased support from the government, which is expected to reduce policy risk premiums and boost market confidence [10][11] Group 4 - The report predicts that China's GDP growth rate will reach around 5.5% in 2025, driven by technological advancements, particularly in AI, which could contribute an additional 2.5% annual growth to earnings per share for listed companies [11][12] - Private enterprises are increasingly expanding into overseas markets, with significant growth in imports and exports, indicating their role as pioneers in China's "going global" strategy [12] - The concentration of market capitalization among leading private enterprises is expected to strengthen, with China's market showing significant potential for increased concentration compared to the US [13][14]

Core Insights - The luxury hotel sector in China is experiencing a significant shift, with young consumers increasingly abandoning five-star hotels, leading to a decline in key performance metrics such as REVPAR, ADR, and occupancy rates [1][2][4][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - In Q1 2025, major hotel chains like Marriott, Hilton, and InterContinental reported strong global growth, but the Chinese market was a significant drag, with REVPAR and ADR in the Greater China region declining by 1.6% and 2.7% respectively [2][3]. - The average room price for five-star hotels in China fell to 599 yuan, a decrease of 5% year-on-year, with an average occupancy rate of only 61.3% [4]. Group 2: Changing Consumer Behavior - Chinese consumers are now booking hotels with an average lead time of just three days, the lowest ever recorded, compared to 20 days in Western markets, indicating a crisis of consumer confidence in the hotel industry [4][5]. - A significant portion of travelers, nearly 30%, are opting for same-day or one-day advance bookings, reflecting a shift in travel habits [4]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The hotel industry is witnessing a supply-demand imbalance, with the number of hotel rooms increasing significantly while average daily rates and occupancy rates are declining [7][8]. - Mid-range hotels like Atour and Holiday Inn are benefiting from this shift, with Atour's revenue growth of 55% and profit growth of 45%, far outpacing that of five-star hotels [7][8]. Group 4: Service and Quality Issues - Five-star hotels are criticized for outdated facilities and standardized services that lack warmth and uniqueness, leading to a loss of interest among younger consumers [5][6]. - The decline in service quality, including issues with cleanliness and maintenance, has further alienated customers, with many preferring mid-range options that offer better experiences [5][6]. Group 5: OTA Dynamics - The competition between five-star hotels and Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) is intensifying, with hotels needing to adapt to new distribution channels to maintain profitability [10][12]. - Platforms like Douyin (TikTok) are emerging as potential game-changers for hotel bookings, leveraging their user base and lower commission rates to attract high-value customers [13][19].

Group 1 - The graduation travel season has begun, with June being a price low point for flights and hotels, averaging nearly 40% lower than July and August [1] - After the end of the college entrance examination, there is a significant increase in travel bookings, with a reported 88% increase in travel product reservations from June 9 to June 11 [1] - Popular domestic departure cities for high school graduates include Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Guangzhou, and Chongqing, while outbound travel is favored by students from Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Qingdao, and Chengdu [1] Group 2 - Some scenic spots are offering free admission to graduates to attract visitors, including locations in Qinghai, Henan, Tibet, and Shandong [2] - Hotel bookings for travelers aged 22 to 25 have increased by 22% year-on-year in June, with over 70% of hotel orders being for group travel [2] - The top 10 popular destinations for graduation travel include Beijing, Shanghai, Nanjing, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Hangzhou, Chongqing, Qingdao, Changsha, and Xi'an, with significant growth in destinations like Aksu and Kashgar [2] Group 3 - Outbound travel has seen explosive growth, with a 60% increase in bookings for international destinations in June, driven by visa-free travel benefits [3] - The top 10 popular outbound destinations include Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia, with "Belt and Road" countries experiencing over tenfold growth in bookings [3] - More than 70% of graduates are traveling with their parents during this period, indicating a trend towards family-oriented travel experiences [3]

Core Insights - JD.com has recently launched its travel and hospitality business, actively recruiting talent at high salaries, with rumors suggesting they are offering three times the salary to attract employees from competitors like Fliggy, Tongcheng, and Ctrip [1] - The company emphasizes a "no bundling" sales strategy for flight tickets and is providing subsidies to various hotels [1] - JD.com has built a comprehensive business line for "flights + hotels + travel," and has been preparing related departments, apps, and mini-programs for several months [1]