Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [3] Core Insights - The report highlights the strong performance of Pop Mart, with over 1 billion LABUBU sales and 4 billion total product sales in 2025, indicating robust growth potential in the emotional consumption sector [1] - The Spring Festival travel volume is expected to reach 10.68 billion trips in 2026, a significant increase of 11.7% compared to 9.56 billion trips in 2025, reflecting strong consumer demand for travel [2] - The report suggests focusing on high-growth sectors supported by policy and technology, including service consumption, new consumption trends, retail innovation, and AI applications [2][56] Summary by Sections Industry & Company Dynamics - Pop Mart's annual meeting showcased its achievements, including a global employee count exceeding 10,000 and a registered membership surpassing 100 million [1] - Anta Group's acquisition of Puma is a strategic move to enhance its global presence and compete with major brands like Nike and Adidas [15][16] - The opening of JD Seven Fresh stores in Beijing and Shanghai aims to capture the New Year market with a focus on fresh produce and high-quality consumer experiences [17] Macro & Industry Data - In November, retail sales grew by 1.3% year-on-year, with a notable increase in online retail sales, which accounted for 25.9% of total retail sales [31][41] - The gold consumption in Q3 2025 saw a decline of 18.56%, with jewelry sales dropping significantly, while demand for gold bars remained strong [48][49] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors with high growth potential, including service consumption, new consumption trends, and retail innovation, with specific beneficiary companies listed [2][56]

Group 1 - The net inflow of southbound funds today was HKD 0.85 billion [1] - Tencent Holdings and Pop Mart experienced net outflows of HKD 14.02 billion and HKD 2.35 billion respectively [1] - Meituan-W and China National Offshore Oil Corporation received net inflows of approximately HKD 5.46 billion and HKD 4.20 billion respectively [1]

2月以来，泡泡玛特股价累计涨超20%。2月10日午间收盘时，其股价报268.4港元/股，当日涨幅4.35%， 总市值达3601亿港元，有望实现连续第七个交易日上涨，创下2024年10月以来最长连涨纪录。 消息面上，2月9日泡泡玛特向港交所提交公告，披露2025年全年核心销售数据：全IP全品类产品全球销 量突破4亿只，旗下THE MONSTERS全品类产品全球销量超1亿只。 本文源自：市场资讯 作者：观察君 此前在2月6日的公司年会上，泡泡玛特创始人王宁已提前披露2025年度核心运营数据：全球员工伙伴超 1万人，全球注册会员超1亿人，LABUBU全年销量超1亿只，全品类全IP产品销量超4亿只。目前泡泡玛 特业务已覆盖100余个国家和地区，全球门店超700家，拥有6大供应链基地，创造超20万个就业岗位。 1月30日，泡泡玛特宣布将伦敦定为欧洲总部，计划在英国新增伯明翰、卡迪夫及伦敦牛津街旗舰店等7 家线下门店，同时在欧洲各地拓展20家门店，相关投资将为英国创造超150个就业岗位。近期其新品表 现亮眼，PUCKY敲敲系列、星星人怦然星动系列市场反响热烈。 为回应投资者对增长可持续性的疑虑，1月19日泡泡玛特斥资2. ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights - The report highlights the strong growth potential in the emotional consumption era, particularly for leading companies with strong innovation and operational capabilities [1] - The Spring Festival travel volume is expected to reach 10.68 billion trips in 2026, a significant increase of 11.7% compared to 9.56 billion trips in 2025, indicating robust travel demand [2] - The report suggests focusing on high-growth sectors supported by policy and technology, including service consumption, new consumption trends, retail innovation, and AI applications [2][64] Summary by Sections Industry & Company Dynamics - Pop Mart's annual meeting showcased its achievements, including over 10,000 global employees, 100 million registered members, and sales of over 400 million products across more than 100 countries [1] - Anta Group is acquiring Puma, enhancing its multi-brand strategy and global competitiveness, despite Puma's recent performance challenges [16][17] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors with high growth potential, including service consumption, new consumption trends, and retail innovation, with specific beneficiary companies listed [2][64] Macro & Industry Data - In November, retail sales grew by 1.3% year-on-year, with online retail sales accounting for 25.9% of total retail sales [36][41] - The gold consumption in Q3 2025 was 177.53 tons, a decrease of 18.56% year-on-year, with jewelry demand significantly impacted [54][56]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market closed with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.58% and the Tech Index increasing by 0.62% [1] - Le Xin Outdoor (02720.HK) saw a first-day listing surge of over 100% [1] - CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (01093.HK) experienced a rise of over 5.5% [1] - Innovent Biologics (01801.HK) and Pop Mart (09992.HK) both increased by nearly 5% [1] - Oriental Selection (01797.HK) faced a decline of nearly 10% [1]

Core Insights - Pop Mart announced its 2025 core sales data, revealing that global sales of all IP products exceeded 400 million units, with the LABUBU series achieving over 100 million units in sales [1][3] - The announcement was made ahead of the full annual report, generating significant market interest and resulting in a stock price increase of nearly 38% year-to-date [3] Sales Performance - The LABUBU series is highlighted as a key driver of sales, with its single IP sales surpassing 100 million units [1][3] - The company aims to expand its global presence, with over 10,000 employees and more than 1 million registered members by 2025 [3] Market Expansion - Pop Mart plans to establish its European headquarters in London and open seven new stores in the UK, including flagship locations in Birmingham, Cardiff, and Oxford Street [3] - The company is also targeting the opening of 20 additional stores across Europe, which is expected to create over 150 jobs in the UK [3] Investor Confidence - In response to investor concerns regarding sustainable growth, Pop Mart repurchased shares worth HKD 251 million and HKD 96.49 million to demonstrate operational confidence [4] - Analysts express that while the rapid growth from LABUBU may slow, the platform's capabilities will continue to support future growth [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market opened positively, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.65% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 0.82% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index experienced a gain of 0.65% at the market opening [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index saw an increase of 0.82% [1] Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - Notable stock performances included NetEase, Zijin Mining, and Pop Mart, each rising over 2% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company aims to achieve global sales of over 400 million units of all IP and product categories by 2025, with THE MONSTERS expected to contribute over 100 million units [1] Group 1: Sales Projections - The company’s revenue forecast implies an average selling price of approximately 96 RMB per unit, leading to a projected revenue of 38.4 billion RMB from 400 million units sold [1] - If the average selling price increases to 100 RMB per unit, total revenue could reach 40 billion RMB, with fourth-quarter revenue estimated at 13.6 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 180% [1] Group 2: Product and Market Insights - The Macquarie report suggests that the sales structure for the 400 million units is not detailed, but it anticipates that plush toys and overseas markets will have a higher proportion, driving up the average selling price in 2025 [1] - The contribution of THE MONSTERS IP is expected to be significant, as plush toys and the MEGA series, which have higher average selling prices than trend toys, will likely dominate sales [1] Group 3: Future Management and Ratings - The company is expected to manage its IP portfolio more conservatively by 2026, with the revenue contribution from THE MONSTERS IP potentially decreasing from the predicted 44% in 2025 to below 40% [1] - Macquarie maintains a "Outperform" rating for the company, setting a target price of 470 HKD, and remains optimistic about its potential for balanced development and expansion into overseas markets [1]

Core Viewpoint - The perception of Pop Mart is evolving from a "blind box company" to a "global IP full industry chain group," indicating a significant shift in its valuation framework, positioning it alongside international IP giants like Disney and Sanrio [1] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve total revenue exceeding 51 billion RMB and an adjusted net profit of 18 billion RMB by 2026, reflecting a robust growth trajectory driven by supply chain management, deep penetration into the North American market, and substantial IP monetization [1][12] - The expected revenue growth represents a year-on-year increase of 22% [12] Market Expansion - North America is becoming a key growth area, with a strategic shift from single-store trials to a cluster-based expansion model, aiming for 270 to 550 stores in the long term [7][9] - The European market is also expanding, with a 729% year-on-year revenue increase in the first half of 2025, reaching 478 million RMB, supported by partnerships with cultural landmarks [10][12] IP Development - The company has established a replicable industrialized IP incubation system, with new IPs like "Star People" showing strong performance, generating 390 million RMB in revenue in the first half of 2025 [5] - The lifecycle of the core IP "Labubu" is being extended through a family strategy, introducing new characters to enhance customer value [3] New Business Lines - Pop Mart is diversifying its revenue streams through new business lines such as POP BAKERY and POPOP, targeting higher frequency and higher price point markets, which enhances the overall consumer experience [12] Management and Strategy - The management team has been localized to support the North American strategy, with key hires from retail backgrounds to strengthen the organizational structure [9] - The company plans to double its store count in North America by 2026, aiming for 13.5 billion RMB in revenue from this market [9]

Core Viewpoint - Macquarie's report indicates that Pop Mart (09992) expects global sales of over 400 million units for its full IP product line by 2025, with THE MONSTERS category projected to exceed 100 million units [1] Group 1: Sales Projections - The report does not specify the exact structure of the 400 million units but suggests that the increasing proportion of plush toys and overseas markets will drive up the average selling price in 2025 [1] - Macquarie's current revenue forecast implies an average selling price of approximately 96 RMB per unit, leading to an estimated revenue of 38.4 billion RMB for 400 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 148% for Q4 2025 [1] - If the average selling price rises to 100 RMB per unit, total revenue could reach 40 billion RMB, with Q4 revenue projected at 13.6 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 180% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.2% [1] Group 2: IP Value Contribution - Macquarie believes that the value contribution from THE MONSTERS IP may be higher due to a greater proportion of plush toys and the MEGA series, both of which have higher average selling prices than trend toys [1] - The overseas exposure of THE MONSTERS is expected to be better than that in mainland China, leading to an anticipated average selling price above the group's overall average [1] - The company is expected to manage its IP portfolio more cautiously by 2026 [1]