February 5, 2026 04:15 PM GMT Pop Mart | Asia Pacific Thoughts on Stock Rebound and Market Feedback Pop Mart's buybacks are an effective catalyst, enhancing near- term risk/reward for dip buyers. Strong popularity of the new products from Twinkle Twinkle and Skullpanda will keep its IP- product flywheel spinning. The stock likely has more room to run in March-April given investors' positions. Recap of stock rebound: Pop Mart is up 38% from its low on January 16 (vs. the HSI down 1%). Its share buyback was t ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry Overview - **Companies Covered**: Pop Mart (泡泡玛特) and Lao Pu Gold (老铺黄金) - **Industry**: Toy and Gold Jewelry Industry Key Points on Pop Mart 1. **Sales Performance**: - Pop Mart's Labubu brand sold over 100 million units in 2025, with total product sales exceeding 400 million units across all categories and IPs [1][2] - The average selling price for Labubu products in China is approximately 99 RMB, while overseas prices can be 1.8 to 2 times higher [1][2] 2. **Revenue Projections**: - Estimated revenue for 2025 is around 40 billion RMB, based on sales data and product pricing [3][5] - Q3 revenue is projected at approximately 12.5 billion RMB, with Q4 expected to show a sequential increase [5][6] 3. **Market Sentiment**: - Despite strong revenue growth, the stock price has experienced a pullback due to a performance vacuum period and concerns over third-party data indicating slowing growth in North America [6][8] - Upcoming financial reports in March and April are expected to boost market confidence [6][7] 4. **Product Launches and Trends**: - Recent product launches, including collaborations and new IPs, have exceeded market expectations, contributing to strong sales growth [10][12] - The company continues to innovate with existing IPs, leading to successful product releases [10][11] 5. **Store Expansion**: - As of early February, Pop Mart has 435 stores in mainland China, with ongoing expansion plans [17][18] - The company is also increasing its international presence, with over 180 stores outside of mainland China [19][20] 6. **Investment Recommendation**: - Analysts maintain a positive outlook on Pop Mart, projecting a revenue of approximately 40 billion RMB and a net profit of around 14 billion RMB for 2025, with expectations of continued growth into 2026 [23][24] Key Points on Lao Pu Gold 1. **Market Position**: - Lao Pu Gold is positioned well in the high-end gold jewelry market, benefiting from rising gold prices and a unique pricing strategy that allows for competitive advantages [26][27] 2. **Sales Growth**: - The company is expected to achieve a sales target of 5 billion RMB for 2025, with projections for continued growth in 2026 driven by store openings and same-store sales increases [28][29] 3. **Pricing Strategy**: - Lao Pu Gold's pricing strategy allows it to maintain a competitive edge, even as gold prices fluctuate, with expectations of double-digit growth in same-store sales [29][30] 4. **Store Expansion**: - The company has successfully established 48 stores in prime locations, making it difficult for new entrants to compete [27][28] 5. **Long-term Outlook**: - Analysts believe that Lao Pu Gold's unique market position and pricing strategy will allow it to maintain strong sales and profitability, with a projected net profit of 7 billion RMB for 2026 [30][31] 6. **Valuation**: - Current valuations are considered reasonable, with potential for upward adjustments based on performance and market conditions [31][32] Additional Insights - **Consumer Trends**: Both companies are experiencing strong consumer demand, particularly during peak seasons, which is expected to continue into the upcoming months [14][30] - **Market Dynamics**: The toy and jewelry industries are facing unique challenges and opportunities, with Pop Mart focusing on IP-driven sales and Lao Pu Gold leveraging its established market presence [22][26]

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart aims to achieve global sales of over 400 million units across all IP and product categories by 2025, with the "THE MONSTERS" category expected to exceed 100 million units [1] Group 1: 2025 Growth Drivers - The company is experiencing a typical "single super IP + category breakthrough" growth model, with revenue expected to expand nearly threefold year-on-year, driven primarily by the global popularity of Labubu and significant monetization efficiency from plush toys [1] - HSBC's analyst Lina Yan predicts that while the hyper-growth from Labubu will fade, the platform's capabilities will persist, marking 2026 as a year for "re-establishing the baseline" [1] - UBS believes that the data alleviates market concerns regarding reliance on a single hit product, with new IP Twinkle showing strong initial performance in early 2026, providing a window for continued growth [1] Group 2: Revenue and Profit Forecast Adjustments - HSBC has lowered its revenue and profit growth forecasts for 2026, citing a decline in member repurchase intensity and growth rate, while emphasizing that valuations have already accounted for IP lifecycle risks [2] - The company’s revenue growth in 2025 is expected to be significantly driven by repeat member purchases, with ARPU from repeat members contributing nearly half of the revenue growth in mainland China [3] Group 3: 2026 Growth Framework - HSBC anticipates that the normalization of ARPU for repeat members will shift growth from explosive to a more standard retail expansion trajectory, leading to a reduction in revenue growth forecast from 30.6% to 23.7% for 2026 [4] - The expected revenue growth for 2026 in mainland China is approximately 13.0%, while overseas growth is projected at around 35.7%, with a focus on expanding retail POS locations [4] Group 4: Execution Risks and Market Dynamics - The risks identified are primarily execution-related, including supply chain issues, price inflation from scalpers, and competition, which could impact the brand and sales [5] - HSBC notes that the market has already begun to price in the lifecycle risks associated with Labubu, with a significant drop in forward PE ratios despite a rise in forward EPS [6] Group 5: New IP and Market Validation - The success of new IPs like Twinkle and their interaction with overseas markets will be critical for sustaining growth post-Labubu, with initial sales figures indicating strong performance [6][7] - Both HSBC and UBS view upcoming quarterly sales data as crucial for validating market performance, particularly in the U.S., and emphasize the importance of sustainable membership management and product expansion [7]

2月10日消息，泡泡玛特再涨近5%，股价触及270港元，月内已累升逾20%。截至发文，泡泡玛特报价 268.6港元，成交额逾32亿港元。 | 09992 泡泡玛特 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 268.600 ↑ +11.400 +4.43% | | 交易中 02/10 11:14 | | * | | ● 快捷交易 | | 最高价 270.000 | 开盘价 263.400 | 成交量 1229.46万 | | 最低价 257.200 | 昨收价 257.200 | 成交额 32.53亿 | | 平均价 264.595 | 市盈率TIM 48.47 | 总市值 3603.38亿 (1) | | 振 幅 4.98% | 市盈率(静) 106.76 | 总股本 13.42亿 | | 换手率 0.92% | 市净率 23.167 | 流通值 3603.38亿 | | 52周景高 339,800 | 委 比 -77.16% | 流通股 13.42亿 | | 52周最低 100.712 | 量 比 2.31 | 每 手 200股 | | 历史最高 339.800 | 股息TTM 0.889 | ...

华西证券（002926）发布研报称，2月6日，2026年泡泡玛特"Ride the Wave踏浪"主题年会在北京国家网 球中心钻石球场举办。年会回顾了2025年的关键突破与高光时刻，也为即将启程的2026年勾勒出更清晰 的方向与想象空间。该行认为，近期公司多款新品在国内和海外取得亮眼表现，该行预计公司业绩有望 迎来新年开门红，看好IP运营平台长期商业价值。 消息面上，2月9日，泡泡玛特发布公告，2025年，集团全IP全品类产品全球销售超4亿只，其中，THE MONSTERS全品类产品全球销售超1亿只。大摩认为，泡泡玛特今年在产品设计方面将迎来更多惊喜， 而集团旗下IP产品Labubu与Moynat的合作、据报Labubu电影将由索尼影业制作，加上LVMH中国区CEO 加入公司董事会，显示泡泡玛特的文化影响力日益受到顶尖行业领导者的认可，并相信公司已为其即将 推出的新产品争取到更有效的营销资源，这对提升其IP受欢迎程度至关重要。 泡泡玛特(09992)再涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.2%，报268港元，成交额24.45亿港元。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，泡泡玛特(09992)再涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.2%，报268港元，成交额24.45亿港 元。 华西证券发布研报称，2月6日，2026年泡泡玛特"Ride the Wave踏浪"主题年会在北京国家网球中心钻石 球场举办。年会回顾了2025年的关键突破与高光时刻，也为即将启程的2026年勾勒出更清晰的方向与想 象空间。该行认为，近期公司多款新品在国内和海外取得亮眼表现，该行预计公司业绩有望迎来新年开 门红，看好IP运营平台长期商业价值。 消息面上，2月9日，泡泡玛特发布公告，2025年，集团全IP全品类产品全球销售超4亿只，其中，THE MONSTERS全品类产品全球销售超1亿只。大摩认为，泡泡玛特今年在产品设计方面将迎来更多惊喜， 而集团旗下IP产品Labubu与Moynat的合作、据报Labubu电影将由索尼影业制作，加上LVMH中国区CEO 加入公司董事会，显示泡泡玛特的文化影响力日益受到顶尖行业领导者的认可，并相信公司已为其即将 推出的新产品争取到更有效的营销资源，这对提升其IP受欢迎程度至关重要。 ...

新品爆款频出，IP势能有望再度提升：2026开年以来PUCKY敲敲、星星人怦然星动、SP*小马宝莉等爆款频出， 验证了泡泡 【国信传媒】泡泡玛特今日大涨7%，经营拐点确立，持续坚定推荐 近期催化事件：1）2月6日召开年会，资料显示LABUBU/全品类销售量分别为1亿/4亿只、全球门店数量700+家， 超出市场预期。 2）SP*小马宝莉在ins上点赞数量创新高，北美官网已售罄。 新品爆款频出，IP势能有望再度提升：2026开年以来PUCKY敲敲、星星人怦然星动、SP*小马宝莉等爆款频出， 验证了泡泡玛特对单一IP依赖度下降，以及IP"造星"能力强劲。 【国信传媒】泡泡玛特今日大涨7%，经营拐点确立，持续坚定推荐 近期催化事件：1）2月6日召开年会，资料显示LABUBU/全品类销售量分别为1亿/4亿只、全球门店数量700+家， 超出市场预期。 2）SP*小马宝莉在ins上点赞数量创新高，北美官网已售罄。 我们认为泡泡玛特已经沉淀出一套成熟的IP孵化和造势方法论，IP矩阵的广度和深度大，有望使公司摆脱潮流风 险，实现业绩持续稳步提升。 海外渠道有望加速增长：截至25年末公司已在全球开设700+家门店、覆盖100+个 ...

2月金股【泡泡玛特】坚定看好：年会信息小结&王宁讲话简评&1月底部深度报告回顾： 1、全年全品类销售量4亿+，Labubu单品销售量1亿+，i.e.Labubu销售量占比25% 2、全球门店数量700家+，海外200家+ 3、全球注册会员1亿+，1H25中国内地会员数量近6000万，海外会员数量占比低于中国内地；49%新会员仅认识 Labubu 3.0 4、乐园客流量同比+77%，其中非亲子家庭游客占比59%，非本 3、全球注册会员1亿+，1H25中国内地会员数量近6000万，海外会员数量占比低于中国内地；49%新会员仅认识 Labubu 3.0 4、乐园客流量同比+77%，其中非亲子家庭游客占比59%，非本地游客占比58%，潜在客群超预期；城市乐园二期 规划中，或包含游乐项目。 5、毛绒成为第一大品类，占比40%左右，预计全年占比相比25H1保持稳定。 6、建成6大供应链基地，赋能20万个就业岗位。 相比2024年7月全品类产能+2.5倍，毛绒产能+7倍。 目前国际估值比较赔率可观，成长阶段强化安全边际，国力势能强化胜率： （1)pe角度： 迪士尼与三丽鸥的历史估值体系pe在10-30或10-40倍，10倍 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened higher on February 10, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.65% to 27,202.96 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index up by 0.82% to 5,461.96 points, and the National Enterprises Index increasing by 0.64% to 9,226.56 points [1] - Major technology stocks saw gains, with Alibaba up 1.14%, Tencent Holdings up 0.54%, JD Group up 1.2%, Xiaomi up 0.85%, NetEase up 2.35%, and Kuaishou up 1.01% [1] - The new consumption concept stocks showed mixed results, with Pop Mart rising over 2% and Weilon falling over 2% [1] Corporate News - Pop Mart (09992.HK) expects global sales of all IP products to exceed 400 million units by 2025, with THE MONSTERS product line projected to sell over 100 million units [2] - Youjia Innovation (02431.HK) has secured a contract with a leading domestic automotive brand to provide several key products, including the iPilot 4 Plus driving controller and driver monitoring systems [2] - Ruifeng New Energy (00527.HK) signed an investment framework agreement to build the largest inference computing cluster park in North China, with a total investment of approximately RMB 240 billion [2] Earnings Forecasts - Hong Kong Telecom (06823.HK) reported a 5% increase in total revenue to HKD 36.553 billion for 2025, with EBITDA growing by 4% to HKD 14.234 billion and net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 4% to HKD 5.286 billion [4] - China Nuclear International (02302.HK) anticipates revenue for 2025 to exceed HKD 2.46 billion, with gross profit expected to reach at least HKD 260 million, driven by increased uranium trading volumes [4][6] - Mingyuan Cloud (00909.HK) expects a net profit of approximately HKD 26.9 million to HKD 32.8 million for 2025, representing a growth of about 114% to 117% [4] - China Oriental Education (00667.HK) forecasts a 46% to 51% increase in net profit for 2025 [5] Market Dynamics - Several companies are actively repurchasing shares to boost market confidence, including Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK), which repurchased 1.5 million shares for HKD 52.7268 million, and Geely Automobile (00175.HK), which repurchased 1.408 million shares for HKD 23.4587 million [8] - China Smart Energy (01004.HK) announced a share consolidation effective February 10, pending approval from the Stock Exchange [8] Institutional Insights - Galaxy Securities noted a significant "Spring Festival effect" in the Hong Kong market, with optimistic market sentiment and early capital positioning [10] - Dongwu Securities indicated that while short-term challenges remain, the market should be monitored for overseas risks and domestic AI catalysts [10] - Bank of China International believes that after the recent negative factors have subsided, market sentiment is at a low point, with potential rebounds in the AI multi-modal industry chain [10]

Group 1 - Tesla's Elon Musk announced that SpaceX is shifting focus to building a "self-sustaining city" on the Moon, with plans to initiate a Mars colonization project within the next 5-7 years [2] - Alphabet raised $20 billion through a bond issuance, exceeding the initial target of $15 billion, with over $100 billion in subscription orders [2] - TSMC plans to increase its investment in the Kumamoto plant in Japan to $17 billion for mass production of 3nm technology, marking a significant step in the semiconductor supply chain and geopolitical landscape [2] Group 2 - OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman reported strong growth, with ChatGPT's monthly growth rate surpassing 10%, and the launch of the new Codex model GPT-5.3-Codex [2][3] - Alibaba revealed its new model Qwen3.5, which features a novel mixed attention mechanism and is likely to be a vision-language model [3] Group 3 - Pop Mart aims to sell over 400 million products globally by 2025, with the THE MONSTERS product line expected to exceed 100 million units [5] - Zhongke Shuguang plans to raise up to 800 million RMB through convertible bonds for AI-related projects, including advanced computing systems and next-generation AI training machines [5] - 16 companies, including Meituan and JD, are receiving guidance from government departments to improve labor management and protect workers' rights [6] Group 4 - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang stated that AI infrastructure capital expenditures could exceed $600 billion by 2026 due to strong demand for computing power [8] - Apple's CEO Tim Cook emphasized that AI will be a core pillar for the future, acknowledging user feedback issues with Apple Intelligence [8] - Amazon's Q4 results showed increased capital expenditures impacting short-term profits, but AWS continues to grow strongly [9]