Stock Performance - The stock price of Pop Mart surged nearly 5% during the trading session, reaching a new high since March 2021, with a year-to-date increase of over 330% and a market capitalization approaching HKD 120 billion [1] Sales and Profit Growth - Total sales and adjusted profit are expected to grow by 27% and 29% year-over-year, respectively [2] - The growth is attributed to increased IP awareness, expanded product categories, increased number of overseas stores, diversified channels, and improved supply chain [3] Market Expansion - Pop Mart's global market expansion trend is expected to continue into next year, with sales in China and overseas markets projected to grow by 14% and 47% respectively by 2025 [1] Analyst Rating - CLSA maintains an "Outperform" rating on Pop Mart and raised the target price by 21.7% to HKD 84 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 108 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 40.8% from the current price of 76.7 HKD [6][14]. Core Insights - The recent surge in popularity of the Labubu IP is expected to drive accelerated revenue growth in Q4 2024, enhancing the company's long-term growth outlook and market confidence [2][3]. - The Monsters series has seen a significant increase in popularity, with a 292% year-on-year revenue growth in the first half of 2024, contributing to 13.7% of total revenue and ranking second among all IPs [3][4]. - The company has adjusted its long-term growth forecast for overseas markets upward, reflecting a more optimistic view of future revenue streams [2][4]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections show a substantial increase from 4,617 million RMB in 2022 to 22,156 million RMB in 2026, with a year-on-year growth rate peaking at 96.7% in 2024 [5][9]. - Net profit is expected to rise from 476 million RMB in 2022 to 5,547 million RMB in 2026, with a notable growth rate of 140.1% in 2024 [5][10]. - The company's P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 204.9x in 2022 to 17.2x in 2026, indicating improving valuation metrics as earnings grow [5][10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant rise in Pop Mart's stock price, which increased by 4.3% in early trading, surpassing 80 HKD, with a market capitalization exceeding 107 billion HKD and an annual increase of nearly 300% [1] - The overall revenue for the third quarter is projected to grow by 120% to 125% year-on-year, with growth rates of 55% to 60% in mainland China, and 440% to 445% in Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and overseas markets [1] - Both Everbright Securities and Credit Lyonnais have optimistic reports regarding the company's performance and future growth, believing that its IP operation capabilities and market expansion will lead to higher performance growth [1]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Pop Mart with a "Buy" rating, citing its strong IP operational capabilities and overseas expansion as key drivers for future growth [10] Core Views - Pop Mart is the leading player in China's trendy toy market, with significant growth potential in overseas markets [1] - The company's IP ecosystem, covering blind boxes, theme parks, and games, is expected to drive long-term growth [10] - Pop Mart's revenue is projected to grow from RMB 12.687 billion in 2024E to RMB 20.430 billion in 2026E, with adjusted net profit increasing from RMB 2.935 billion to RMB 4.783 billion over the same period [10] Industry Overview - The global trendy toy retail market is expected to grow from USD 19.8 billion in 2019 to USD 41.8 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 16.1% [11] - China's trendy toy retail market is projected to expand from RMB 207 billion in 2019 to RMB 763 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 29.8% [1] - Pop Mart holds a 13.6% market share in China's trendy toy retail market, ranking first in 2021 [1] IP Operations - Pop Mart's IP ecosystem includes four major IPs (MOLLY, SKULLPANDA, DIMOO, THE MONSTERS), which accounted for 50% of total revenue in 2023, down from 58.1% in 2019 [1] - The company has diversified its product offerings, including MEGA high-end products, POP BEAN, and plush toys, to extend the lifecycle of its IPs [1] - Pop Mart's internal design team (PDC) has successfully launched new IPs such as Xiao Ye and Xiao Tian Dou, contributing to revenue growth [82] Domestic Market Performance - Pop Mart's domestic revenue grew from RMB 16.57 billion in 2019 to RMB 52.35 billion in 2023, with online and offline channels contributing 33% and 58% respectively in 2023 [1] - The company's retail store count increased from 114 in 2019 to 363 in 2023, with a potential ceiling of 434 stores in China [1] Overseas Expansion - Pop Mart's overseas revenue increased from 2% in 2019 to 17% in 2023, with 80 stores opened globally by the end of 2023 [1] - The company is rapidly expanding in markets like Thailand and the US, with 28 new stores added globally from January to July 2024 [1] - Overseas markets offer higher pricing and profitability compared to the domestic market, with online and offline channels contributing 15% and 60% respectively in 2023 [1] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 12.687 billion in 2024E to RMB 20.430 billion in 2026E, with a CAGR of 34% from 2024E to 2025E and 20% from 2025E to 2026E [10] - Adjusted net profit is projected to increase from RMB 2.935 billion in 2024E to RMB 4.783 billion in 2026E, with a CAGR of 33% from 2024E to 2025E and 22% from 2025E to 2026E [10] Competitive Landscape - Pop Mart's market share in China's trendy toy retail market increased from 8.5% in 2019 to 13.6% in 2021, solidifying its leading position [1] - The company faces competition from brands like TOP TOY, 52 toys, and Cool Play, but its full-chain coverage and strong IP ecosystem give it a competitive edge [62]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart (9992 HK) with a 6-month outlook [2] Core Views - Pop Mart's Q3 2024 revenue surged over 120% YoY, with overseas revenue growing 4x [2] - Domestic online and offline channels showed strong growth, with e-commerce platforms increasing 135%-140% YoY [2] - International expansion accelerated, with 22 new stores opened in Q3 2024, bringing total overseas stores to 114 [3] - The company continues to diversify IP monetization channels and expand product categories [4] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 mainland China revenue grew 55%-60% YoY [2] - Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and overseas revenue increased 440%-445% YoY [2] - The company is projected to achieve 2024-2025 revenues of 12 5/17 2 billion yuan, representing 98 4%/37 4% growth respectively [5] - Adjusted net profit (Non-IFRS) for 2024-2025 is forecasted at 3 14/4 40 billion yuan, with 163%/40% growth [5] Channel Performance - Offline retail stores grew 30%-35% YoY [2] - Offline robot stores increased 20%-25% YoY [2] - Online blind box machines rose 55%-60% YoY [2] - Tmall flagship store sales jumped 155%-160% YoY [2] - Douyin flagship store sales increased 115%-120% YoY [2] Product Development - Released 11/12/9 blind box products in July/August/September 2024 [2] - Launched 6/8/4 MEGA collectible series in July/August/September 2024 [2] - Introduced new product categories including cards, building blocks, and POP CUBE series [4] - Expanded IP monetization through game integration and physical product collaborations [4] International Expansion - Opened 22 new overseas stores in Q3 2024, exceeding H1 2024 additions [3] - Expanded to multiple countries including Thailand, Netherlands, Italy, USA, and Indonesia [3] - Total overseas stores reached 114 by September 2024 [3] Market Position - Current share price: 70 75 HKD [2] - Market capitalization: 95 013 23 million HKD [1] - Price-to-book ratio: 6 85 HKD [1] - Debt-to-asset ratio: 23 28% [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price set above the current price of 70.75 HKD, maintaining the rating for the next six months [2][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 120%-125% year-on-year for Q3 2024, with mainland China revenue growing by 55%-60% and revenue from Hong Kong, Macau, and overseas regions soaring by 440%-445% [2][3]. - The company is expanding its retail presence, with 22 new stores opened in Hong Kong, Macau, and overseas by the end of September 2024, bringing the total to 114 stores [3]. - The company is diversifying its IP monetization channels and enhancing product interactivity, with new product lines and collaborations with various retail partners [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024-2025, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 12.5 billion HKD and 17.2 billion HKD, representing year-on-year growth of 98.4% and 37.4% respectively [5]. - Adjusted net profit for the same period is expected to be 3.14 billion HKD and 4.4 billion HKD, with growth rates of 163% and 40% [5]. Market Expansion - The company has accelerated its international market expansion, with notable growth in overseas revenue driven by strong demand and rapid store openings [3]. - The online channels in Hong Kong, Macau, and overseas are transitioning from broad strategies to more refined operations, leveraging membership systems and holiday promotions [3]. Product Development - The company continues to innovate its product offerings, launching new categories such as cards and building blocks, and enhancing the playability of its products [4]. - Collaborations with various retail outlets have been established to facilitate rapid distribution of products [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Neutral** rating on Pop Mart (9992 HK) with a 12-month price target of HK$70 00, implying a 10 3% upside from the current price of HK$63 45 [1][10] Core Views - Pop Mart reported **3Q24 revenue growth of 120%-125% YoY**, significantly exceeding the company's guidance of >62% YoY growth and showing acceleration from 1H24/2Q24 for both China and overseas markets [1] - **Mainland China sales grew by 55%-60% YoY**, outperforming prior estimates of 30% YoY growth, driven by strong performance in retail stores (30%-35% YoY) and e-commerce channels (135%-140% YoY) [1] - **Overseas sales surged by 440%-445% YoY**, well above the full-year target of >200% YoY, supported by strong store productivity and brand momentum [1][5] - The company's **overseas sales mix surpassed 45% in September**, up from 30% in 1H24, which is expected to further benefit gross profit margins (GPM) and operating leverage [1] - Pop Mart's **Labubu plush toy**, a star product, contributed 10% of sales in 1H24 with a 10x YoY increase, maintaining a price premium in the secondary market despite increased supply [1][8] Financial Performance and Forecasts - **2024E revenue** is revised up to RMB 11,890 7 million (12 8% increase from prior estimates), with **2026E revenue** projected at RMB 18,143 5 million (15 7% increase) [9] - **EBITDA for 2024E** is forecasted at RMB 4,340 1 million, with **2026E EBITDA** expected to reach RMB 6,591 6 million [1] - **EPS for 2024E** is revised up to RMB 1 92 (12 1% increase), with **2026E EPS** projected at RMB 2 86 [1][9] - The report applies a **25X P/E multiple** (up from 20X) to 2026E earnings, discounted back to 2025E with a 12% cost of equity (COE) [10] Operational Metrics - **Mainland China sales by channel**: Retail stores grew by 30%-35% YoY, Pop Draw by 55%-60% YoY, and e-commerce platforms by 135%-140% YoY, with notable acceleration from Tmall flagship store and TikTok [1][5] - **Overseas sales** accounted for 37 7% of total sales in 2024E, up from 35 0% in prior estimates, reflecting faster growth in international markets [9] - **Gross profit margin (GPM)** for overseas sales is expected to improve, reaching 70 9% in 2024E, up from 70 3% in prior estimates [9] Valuation and Market Sentiment - Pop Mart is currently trading at **24X 2025E P/E**, with the revised price target of HK$70 implying limited upside potential, justifying the Neutral rating [10] - The report highlights **strong IP momentum** and solid execution in category expansion as key drivers of Pop Mart's growth, particularly in overseas markets [1][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart (09992) [2][4] Core Views - Pop Mart's Q3 2024 revenue growth exceeded expectations, with overall revenue increasing by 120%-125% YoY [6] - Domestic online strategy adjustments have shown significant results, with key channels like Tmall and blind box machines experiencing accelerated growth [6] - The company's "IP X Category X Globalization" strategy continues to evolve, with strong performance from key IPs like Labubu and SkullPanda, and rapid expansion in overseas markets [6] Financial Performance and Projections - Pop Mart's Q3 2024 revenue breakdown: - Mainland China: +55%-60% YoY - Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and overseas: +440%-445% YoY [6] - Key domestic channel growth in Q3 2024: - Retail stores: +30%-35% YoY - Robot stores: +20%-25% YoY - Blind box machines: +55%-60% YoY - E-commerce and other online platforms: +135%-140% YoY [6] - Financial projections for 2024-2026: - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 27.9/36.2/45.4 billion yuan - EPS: 2.07/2.70/3.38 yuan - PE ratio: 34/26/21x [2][6] IP and Product Performance - Labubu: - "ZIMOMO Big Angel" received over 170,000 reservations on JD - New "THE MONSTERS Building Blocks Series 2" recently launched [6] - SkullPanda: - First plush product "Soft and Tough" launched in October 2024, with an average resale price of nearly 2,800 yuan on secondary markets [6] - New IP "Starman": - First blind box series sold over 9,000 units on Tmall by October 25, 2024 [6] Global Expansion - Overseas store count reached 83 by H1 2024, with plans to add 30-40 new stores in H2 2024, focusing on North America and Southeast Asia [6] - The 100th overseas store opened in Jakarta, Indonesia on July 19, 2024, indicating accelerated global expansion [6] Valuation and Market Data - Current stock price: 70.75 HKD [4] - Market capitalization: 95,013.23 million HKD [4] - Historical stock price range: 78.00 HKD (high) / 16.90 HKD (low) over the past year [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue for Q3 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 120%-125%. Domestic revenue grew by 55%-60%, while revenue from Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and overseas markets surged by 440%-445% [1]. - The domestic offline business showed steady growth, with retail store revenue increasing by 30%-35% and robot store revenue by 20%-25% in Q3 2024. Online sales through Douyin and Tmall also performed exceptionally well, with Douyin revenue up by 115%-120% and Tmall revenue up by 155%-160% [1]. - The company is expanding its overseas presence, opening multiple new stores in various countries, including Thailand, Italy, and Indonesia, with plans to add 30-40 more overseas stores in the second half of the year [1]. - The report projects revenue for 2024-2026 to reach 132.32 billion, 181.28 billion, and 219.93 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 27.54 billion, 38.22 billion, and 46.53 billion yuan [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is expected to be 132.32 billion yuan, reflecting a 110% year-on-year growth. The net profit is projected at 27.54 billion yuan, a 154% increase [2][8]. - The adjusted EPS for 2024 is forecasted to be 2.05 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 34 times [2][8]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve to 66% by 2024, with a net margin of 20.81% [8]. Business Performance - The company has diversified its IP and product categories, enhancing channel differentiation and precision marketing, which has driven revenue growth across various domestic channels [1]. - The overseas e-commerce team is implementing tailored operational strategies for different countries and platforms, focusing on localized services and marketing [1].

泡泡玛特(09992) 公司研究/公司深度 证 券 研 究 报 告 公 司 研 究 分析师： 黄骥 E-mail： huangji@yongxingsec.com SAC编号： S1760523090002 分析师： 李瑶芝 E-mail： liyaozhi@yongxingsec.com SAC编号： S1760524020001 公 司 深 度 买入(首次) 行业： 轻工制造 日期： yxzqdatemark 2024年10月24日 基本数据 10 月 22 日收盘价(港元) 63.45 12mthH 股价格区间(港元) 16.90-64.80 总股本(百万股) 1342.94 流通市值（亿港元） 852.10 最近一年股票与恒生指数比较 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2023/102023/112023/122024/12024/22024/32024/42024/52024/62024/72024/82024/9 泡泡玛特 恒生指数 资料来源：Wind，甬兴证券研究所 相关报告： 强 IP 运营能力，文化出海进行时 ——泡泡玛特首次覆盖报告 ◼ 核心观点 国内最大潮玩公司，建立了覆盖潮玩全 ...